Happy New Year!
Flemington is a Dead 4 and some rain this morning and more sweeping in from the west.I'm not at all keen betting on deteriorating tracks and that's a possibilty looking at the forecast and the radar.Randwick is a Dead 4 but seems sure to upgrade.
Flemington
I have no strong opinions in races 1 and 2.In race 3 I'm taking on Kaiser Sun at anything under 4.30.He got a soft time in the middle of the race last time and will have more pressure today with Fab Fevola upfront with him.He's gone up 9 points for the last win which is quite severe I think.have laid it for bits this am around 3.50.
Race 4 is interesting with He's Your Man making his Australian debut.He's got very useful staying form in Europe not top class but a rating of 90 is a very lenient starting point.Couldn't back him at 4.0 though over this much shorter trip but can't dismiss him either.Anlon is going well but 2.80 is short enough.The New Boy is very hard to catch but he'll likely get a dolly lead here.Others have hopes too.
Race 5.Unchain My Heart has obviously been set for this but I don't think the rain will help her.She get's back too which I never like in these long races unless I'm sure they are going to run along.3.50 is plenty short enough and if the rain sets in I'll probably take her on.Crafty Cruiser and Thubiaan look the overs but both are hard to catch.Looks a trappy race to me.
Race 6 is very hard.Apart from the toppy Ethiopia and Cascabel nothing else would really surprise here.
Race 7 I've layed Index Linked here at around 3.50 for bit's already.I'm happy to oppose him under 4.0.Electric Fusion looks mighty hard to beat and if it were still a genuine Dead 4 come post time I could back him around 2.40.
Race 8 The claim makes Longeron a worthy fav. here but 3.0 is plenty tight enough although I don't think I want to take him on at that price.Edgewood has ability but starts badly and he's 3kg's worse off with Longeron from last time allowing for young Maroney's claim.Probably doing nothing here.
Randwick
Nothing there at the moment but there may be a Tweet or two as the afternoon develops
Tuesday 31 December 2013
Monday 30 December 2013
2013 Round Up,Reflections and Looking Forward
This is the last post this year so I'll look back at how it's gone.
Overall I've ended up just about where I started the year financially so I've neither gone forwards or backwards.I've managed a living out of what I'm doing and whilst it's not an opulent one it's not a shabby one either and many people would envy me being able to work from home punting and surviving on it.Anyone who thinks it's a glamorous lifestyle now needs to think again though.My day's start very early in Summer (5.30am) and ends very late in Winter (3.30am) and overall I reckon I put in around 70 hours plus each week.Despite that I wouldn't change it and I think I'm lucky that I've been able to work at something that is both challenging and rewarding at the same time.
It's not a "respectable" living in the conventional sense but then I'm a working class boy from West Yorkshire who left school at 15 and took his chances when and where they came along often irrespective of how and who it upset along the way.I never was respectable and never ever wanted or really could be but I think eventually I've earned some respect for "running my own race" over the years.
The most challenging thing of all is working from home alone.I miss the racecourse and all the characters you found there and the knockabout and sometimes dark humour that could lift your spirits even after a shocking day.Now it's impossible to operate there as you are at such a big disadvantage compared to having everything at your fingertips in your home office.When you had to go racing to have an edge there really was some glamour attatched to doing this work and I never turned up once looking anything but immaculate.Suited and Booted in the finest.Now I'm in shorts and short sleeves most of the time.I do live in the tropics these days so suits aren't really an option anymore.
I wonder if it'll ever change back to being an advantage to be on track again?God, I hope so.I'd be back in a flash!It'll never be quite the same again of course,things never are but it would be good to see the racing authorities realize that betting is the life blood of racing and without it happening big time on course,vibrant and full on, the sport or is it an industry?(don't get me started!) will simply fade away.Why are these corporate minded administrative clowns so blind to the long term damage they are doing and have already done to a once great staple of the Australian sporting and social landscape.They have been ably supported by generally piss poor state Racing Ministers who see only the looming ballot and where they'll land afterwards if they get the boot.Self interest is endemic to the human condition but surely there is someone out there with vision, passion and who has enough "respectability" and vigour to wrest the reins away from these hapless jobsworths and at least begin to steer the game back in the right direction.
The early part of the year I had some serious health issues which left me with almost nothing to show from January to May but I've recovered since then and in the circumstances I have to be satisfied with the year overall.I'm in my mid fifties now and am probably not quite as razor sharp as I used to be and am vulnerable to health issues complicating things from time to time.The big asset I do have after being involved in this caper virtually all my working life is experience.
You cannot buy experience and it's lots of hard work,pain, and disappointment (also some very big high points!) acquiring it but, it's a priceless thing to have at your disposal especially when the going gets tough as it inevitably does in this game sometimes.
The bets advised in the blog and through the tweets show a profit of 8.75% POT since I got things going again in June and it would have been great if October could be forgotten but it can't and it was truly awful and made a complete mess of some very healthy looking figures beforehand.
I'm going to make some changes to the way I do the blog in the New Year as it hasn't really been accurately reflecting what I'm doing the majority of the time which is laying as opposed to backing and that's a trend that seems likely to keep growing.
I'll play around with some new ideas in the blog in the first couple of weeks in the New Year and then I'm taking a weeks holiday mid January.When I get back I'll refine things a bit more and hopefully by February I'll have it out at least 5 days a week with a fair bit more in depth info in there than has been the case lately.
The main purpose of the blog is to inform,advise and hopefully help followers get an extra dollar or two from time to time.
As this year ends I would like to thank those who have emailed with various stuff over the year particularly the kind ones I received when I was unwell earlier in the year.I know the following has dropped of as I don't cover the UK stuff after October but it has been great to hear from people worldwide throughout the year.
I mentioned in Part Two of Laying for Profit the value of not being afraid to buy your info if you can source it from a really reputable agencies and your too time poor to do the hard work yourself.I mentioned two in Australia,Champion Picks and Redbelly Sports but wanted to add one more for the International followers who are not subject to the ludricous "in-play" restrictions that limit activity on sports events if you operate out of Australia.
Betfair Guru operates out of the North West of England.Kevin (the Guru) specialises in Tennis,Soccer and he does well on the UK Flat Racing too.He's essentially a Trader but his strategies are ultra sound and he operates online in real time.Works really hard and consequently gets the results..Very generous with his time and full of help and advice.Well worth looking into if your based in Europe.
All these three agencies I respect because I know that the work ethic is the cornerstone of their operations and importantly they are an open hand at putting out priceless free information to help anyone looking to do better on the punt.David & Darryn at Champion Picks send out a free newsletter 5 days a week packed with really interesting stuff if your a punter.Ed at Redbelly has a weekly newsletter with tips for form evaluation,strategy etc and does a twice weekly slot on Perth's racing radio.These guys are open handed about telling you what they have learnt in moving from ordinary punters into long term successful operators.Priceless knowledge and freely imparted and a total credit to the racing game.
Others I really want to highlight for being genuine sources of interesting and valuable info that have made my racing year better and helped know and understand more are:
Scott Furguson who is the author of http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/ a terrific place to go if you really want to know what's happening in the betting world.When the shit hits the fan be it collapsing Punters Clubs,match fixing,shonky bookies,scammers and shonks abroad Scott will have the latest and most accurate take on what's really going on.
Peter Webb of Bet Angel Pro. Doyen of Betfair traders and also the author of an excellent blog which is informative and instructive http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/
Racing UK not faultless but the best racing network around by a mile.Very knowledgeable presenters all round but a particular mention to the luscious Lydia Hislop the best female racing presenter anywhere,the weather worn Steve Mellish years of experience and always worth listening too,the erudite and provoking James Willoughby,almost too clever by half sometimes but a great communicator of how to analysize a race,Graham Cunningham ex Timeform and always thorough,Mark Howard, down to earth,to the point and a great judge around the northern racecourses,Tom O'Ryan,the "Yorkshire Leprechaun" ex jockey and a wonderfully affable and entertaining presenter and Claude Charlet who's opinions on French racing you dismiss at your peril.It's a very strong team with no real weak links but everyone has their favourites and they have kept me entertained and updated through the long,late winter nights when I'm betting on the UK racing.
To everyone all the very best for the New Year,thanks for following even if you only drop in occasionally.
The final part of Laying For Profit On Betfair will be online over the next few days.Back tomorrow with a look at the New Years Day's racing at Flemington and Rosehill.
Overall I've ended up just about where I started the year financially so I've neither gone forwards or backwards.I've managed a living out of what I'm doing and whilst it's not an opulent one it's not a shabby one either and many people would envy me being able to work from home punting and surviving on it.Anyone who thinks it's a glamorous lifestyle now needs to think again though.My day's start very early in Summer (5.30am) and ends very late in Winter (3.30am) and overall I reckon I put in around 70 hours plus each week.Despite that I wouldn't change it and I think I'm lucky that I've been able to work at something that is both challenging and rewarding at the same time.
It's not a "respectable" living in the conventional sense but then I'm a working class boy from West Yorkshire who left school at 15 and took his chances when and where they came along often irrespective of how and who it upset along the way.I never was respectable and never ever wanted or really could be but I think eventually I've earned some respect for "running my own race" over the years.
The most challenging thing of all is working from home alone.I miss the racecourse and all the characters you found there and the knockabout and sometimes dark humour that could lift your spirits even after a shocking day.Now it's impossible to operate there as you are at such a big disadvantage compared to having everything at your fingertips in your home office.When you had to go racing to have an edge there really was some glamour attatched to doing this work and I never turned up once looking anything but immaculate.Suited and Booted in the finest.Now I'm in shorts and short sleeves most of the time.I do live in the tropics these days so suits aren't really an option anymore.
I wonder if it'll ever change back to being an advantage to be on track again?God, I hope so.I'd be back in a flash!It'll never be quite the same again of course,things never are but it would be good to see the racing authorities realize that betting is the life blood of racing and without it happening big time on course,vibrant and full on, the sport or is it an industry?(don't get me started!) will simply fade away.Why are these corporate minded administrative clowns so blind to the long term damage they are doing and have already done to a once great staple of the Australian sporting and social landscape.They have been ably supported by generally piss poor state Racing Ministers who see only the looming ballot and where they'll land afterwards if they get the boot.Self interest is endemic to the human condition but surely there is someone out there with vision, passion and who has enough "respectability" and vigour to wrest the reins away from these hapless jobsworths and at least begin to steer the game back in the right direction.
The early part of the year I had some serious health issues which left me with almost nothing to show from January to May but I've recovered since then and in the circumstances I have to be satisfied with the year overall.I'm in my mid fifties now and am probably not quite as razor sharp as I used to be and am vulnerable to health issues complicating things from time to time.The big asset I do have after being involved in this caper virtually all my working life is experience.
You cannot buy experience and it's lots of hard work,pain, and disappointment (also some very big high points!) acquiring it but, it's a priceless thing to have at your disposal especially when the going gets tough as it inevitably does in this game sometimes.
The bets advised in the blog and through the tweets show a profit of 8.75% POT since I got things going again in June and it would have been great if October could be forgotten but it can't and it was truly awful and made a complete mess of some very healthy looking figures beforehand.
I'm going to make some changes to the way I do the blog in the New Year as it hasn't really been accurately reflecting what I'm doing the majority of the time which is laying as opposed to backing and that's a trend that seems likely to keep growing.
I'll play around with some new ideas in the blog in the first couple of weeks in the New Year and then I'm taking a weeks holiday mid January.When I get back I'll refine things a bit more and hopefully by February I'll have it out at least 5 days a week with a fair bit more in depth info in there than has been the case lately.
The main purpose of the blog is to inform,advise and hopefully help followers get an extra dollar or two from time to time.
As this year ends I would like to thank those who have emailed with various stuff over the year particularly the kind ones I received when I was unwell earlier in the year.I know the following has dropped of as I don't cover the UK stuff after October but it has been great to hear from people worldwide throughout the year.
I mentioned in Part Two of Laying for Profit the value of not being afraid to buy your info if you can source it from a really reputable agencies and your too time poor to do the hard work yourself.I mentioned two in Australia,Champion Picks and Redbelly Sports but wanted to add one more for the International followers who are not subject to the ludricous "in-play" restrictions that limit activity on sports events if you operate out of Australia.
Betfair Guru operates out of the North West of England.Kevin (the Guru) specialises in Tennis,Soccer and he does well on the UK Flat Racing too.He's essentially a Trader but his strategies are ultra sound and he operates online in real time.Works really hard and consequently gets the results..Very generous with his time and full of help and advice.Well worth looking into if your based in Europe.
All these three agencies I respect because I know that the work ethic is the cornerstone of their operations and importantly they are an open hand at putting out priceless free information to help anyone looking to do better on the punt.David & Darryn at Champion Picks send out a free newsletter 5 days a week packed with really interesting stuff if your a punter.Ed at Redbelly has a weekly newsletter with tips for form evaluation,strategy etc and does a twice weekly slot on Perth's racing radio.These guys are open handed about telling you what they have learnt in moving from ordinary punters into long term successful operators.Priceless knowledge and freely imparted and a total credit to the racing game.
Others I really want to highlight for being genuine sources of interesting and valuable info that have made my racing year better and helped know and understand more are:
Scott Furguson who is the author of http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/ a terrific place to go if you really want to know what's happening in the betting world.When the shit hits the fan be it collapsing Punters Clubs,match fixing,shonky bookies,scammers and shonks abroad Scott will have the latest and most accurate take on what's really going on.
Peter Webb of Bet Angel Pro. Doyen of Betfair traders and also the author of an excellent blog which is informative and instructive http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/
Racing UK not faultless but the best racing network around by a mile.Very knowledgeable presenters all round but a particular mention to the luscious Lydia Hislop the best female racing presenter anywhere,the weather worn Steve Mellish years of experience and always worth listening too,the erudite and provoking James Willoughby,almost too clever by half sometimes but a great communicator of how to analysize a race,Graham Cunningham ex Timeform and always thorough,Mark Howard, down to earth,to the point and a great judge around the northern racecourses,Tom O'Ryan,the "Yorkshire Leprechaun" ex jockey and a wonderfully affable and entertaining presenter and Claude Charlet who's opinions on French racing you dismiss at your peril.It's a very strong team with no real weak links but everyone has their favourites and they have kept me entertained and updated through the long,late winter nights when I'm betting on the UK racing.
To everyone all the very best for the New Year,thanks for following even if you only drop in occasionally.
The final part of Laying For Profit On Betfair will be online over the next few days.Back tomorrow with a look at the New Years Day's racing at Flemington and Rosehill.
Sunday 29 December 2013
Laying For Profit On Betfair-Part Two
Laying For Profit On Betfair-Part Two.
In Part One I suggested how anyone new to "laying" on Betfair might start out by taking on runners they thought should be at least double figure odds but that they could lay at odds of 8.0 or under.Then if that goes well after a hundred or so lays maybe start taking on runners that you know are live winning hopes but that are shorter odds than your analysis suggests they should be.
In Part Two I'm going to look at how using Trading Software can help you increase your margins. Before I do that I really want to reiterate a couple of cardinal rules that you must keep too if you want to give this a real chance of working for you.
Money Management
This the weakest link in most punters armoury.There are plenty of really sound and knowledgeable judges out there but unless you get totally disciplined around limiting your liabilities to a preset and consistent level the cruel hand of fate will bring you undone eventually.Even if you are the best analyst ever you still have to contend with variance and a host of factors that can conspire at times to make your analysis useless.Making money out of laying is a relentless grind.You have to be resigned to laying plenty of winners and accept it with a shrug if a host of them cluster together and you wipe out all the previous weeks profit in one poor afternoon.Providing you are keeping your liability fixed and consistent and hold your nerve through a rocky run you will gradually claw it back.You simply don't get rich quickly laying.It's five steps forward,four steps back most of the time.
How much of your initial bank you decide to risk each lay depends on how risk averse you are.I could never advise anyone to risk more than 5% per play and only then if you are laying runners over 6.0.If you start taking on favourites you should be risking 3% maximum.That's the percentage I've settled on and I stick to that being my maximum liability each lay.
Analysis and Tissue Prices
How you convert your form analysis into odds is no easy task.If you are used to doing it regularly then you will already know this.However,if you want to have a realistic idea of what is a fair price for any runner in a race then you have to have a clear and balanced idea of the respective odds of the runners in opposition.
If you really don't have the time to do the form thoroughly then use a respected and reliable ratings agency and base your strategy around their figures.Most people selling racing tips and info are shonks but there are some credible operators who have stood the test of time.In Australia the two I can attest to being excellent are Champion Picks based in Melbourne and who seem to mainly concentrate on racing there and Redbelly Sports based in Sydney.Ed Kennett who is the ratings guru at Redbelly used to fill the same role at Champion Picks until a few years ago.I don't agree with their assessments all of the time and sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong but it's a measure of the respect I have for their work that I always review their prices when they post them on their sites after racing.Win or lose they both post their results and over time they both are consistently profitable.
Kennett in particular has an unparallelled handle on NSW racing and is a truly world class operator.I have no professional or financial involvement with either so mine is a totally unbiased and objective opinion.There may be other agencies who are also good but these two publish all their results and I've monitored them for a long time.
In short you have to have a solid and reliable idea of what you think the market should look like before you start getting involved.Something may look very short at say 1.80 but unless you have an accurate handle on the opposition you are really just guessing.Guessing won't cut it so there is no easy solution it's either put the time in and do the hard yards yourself or pay for ratings that you can trust to get results over time.
Trading Software & Odds Comparison
Anyone attempting to use Betfair seriously must have trading software.If you don't have it you are at a big disadvantage and cannot do any of the trades that will help you maximise your profits.
The three most popular that I am aware of are Bet Angel Pro,Racing Traders Evolution and Geeks Toy.I think Bet Angel has the most features and applications particularly for sports trading and is the most expensive of the three.I've used Racing Traders Evolution for a while and I'm used to it and cannot see a good reason to change.I pay ten UK pounds a month (A$18) and it's fantastic value.It's doesn't matter which one you choose as all do the same job but even if you are only playing at the weekend you'll never want to be without it once you have got used to it.Be careful with it at the beginning or you'll get burn't.It's very simple and easy to use once you get used to it a bit like riding a bike but expect to be wobbly when you start.All have how to use guides and all is explained in them but do be cautious initially until you are sure of what you are doing.
If you are backing or laying you have to know what's being offered in any market.Dynamic Odds is a fantastic product that has all major bookies odds plus Betfair and the TAB's.It updates every few seconds so you can see at a glance what's being offered and by whom.Like the trading software once you are used to it you'll never want to be without it.It cost's $30 a month and is a must have if you are a serious player.
Trader Laying To Increase Profits
Betfair markets on Australian racing have very little liquidity early ( except for Saturdays and major race days) and really don't start to develop until around 10mins out from start time.The liquidity gradually increases but I would say that around 80% of the business in done in the last couple of minutes.During those last two minutes there often is very little differential between what's been offered on Betfair (after commission is taken in to account) and what's available amongst the bookies and the TAB's-this is particularly the case at the front end of the market.Getting your lay bet in early really is the only way to be ahead of the market.You have to move before the market does but you also cannot be sure that the market will always moved the way you believe it should.If you want to increase your profits from laying you need to use leverage to do you.Here's a simple example:
10 minutes out from the start the favourite is at evens (2.0).Your analysis suggests that it should be at least 2.50 and that 2.0 is big unders.You have a lay liability of $100 each time you play so you are happy to lay the favourite at evens for $100.You think the favourite will blow/drift so you have another $100 at evens hoping to offload this liability at a more realistic price as the market develops.Your initial assessment proves correct and the price moves out to 2.50 at which point you back it for $66.66.If the favourite wins you have still only lost your original $100 but if it gets beat then your profit has increased from the original $100 to $133.33.
This is a very simplistic example but it illustrates how your margins will increase if you can call the market early.Getting in early is the only way that you will get the opportunity to take advantage of such a major market shift but it also leaves you exposed if the market confounds you and moves against you.Looking at the example above what should you do if the favourite shortened into 1.90?
Well you thought evens was unders and you were happy to lay it at that price believing it ought to be at least 2.50 so leave your original $100 lay in play but accept the trade hasn't worked and have $111 on the favourite at 1.90.If the favourite wins you have lost $100.10 and if it gets beat you have won $89.What you mustn't do is allow the odds to shorten further by hesitating.Accept the trade didn't work and get out quick.
As I said this is a simplistic example and the reality is far from simple but the principal of buying at one price and selling for more is the basis of all trade and it's simply a matter of getting it right most if not all of the time.
In Part Three I'm going to look at techniques for getting into the market and exiting and what you can reasonably expect to achieve if you are proving to be ok at it
In Part One I suggested how anyone new to "laying" on Betfair might start out by taking on runners they thought should be at least double figure odds but that they could lay at odds of 8.0 or under.Then if that goes well after a hundred or so lays maybe start taking on runners that you know are live winning hopes but that are shorter odds than your analysis suggests they should be.
In Part Two I'm going to look at how using Trading Software can help you increase your margins. Before I do that I really want to reiterate a couple of cardinal rules that you must keep too if you want to give this a real chance of working for you.
Money Management
This the weakest link in most punters armoury.There are plenty of really sound and knowledgeable judges out there but unless you get totally disciplined around limiting your liabilities to a preset and consistent level the cruel hand of fate will bring you undone eventually.Even if you are the best analyst ever you still have to contend with variance and a host of factors that can conspire at times to make your analysis useless.Making money out of laying is a relentless grind.You have to be resigned to laying plenty of winners and accept it with a shrug if a host of them cluster together and you wipe out all the previous weeks profit in one poor afternoon.Providing you are keeping your liability fixed and consistent and hold your nerve through a rocky run you will gradually claw it back.You simply don't get rich quickly laying.It's five steps forward,four steps back most of the time.
How much of your initial bank you decide to risk each lay depends on how risk averse you are.I could never advise anyone to risk more than 5% per play and only then if you are laying runners over 6.0.If you start taking on favourites you should be risking 3% maximum.That's the percentage I've settled on and I stick to that being my maximum liability each lay.
Analysis and Tissue Prices
How you convert your form analysis into odds is no easy task.If you are used to doing it regularly then you will already know this.However,if you want to have a realistic idea of what is a fair price for any runner in a race then you have to have a clear and balanced idea of the respective odds of the runners in opposition.
If you really don't have the time to do the form thoroughly then use a respected and reliable ratings agency and base your strategy around their figures.Most people selling racing tips and info are shonks but there are some credible operators who have stood the test of time.In Australia the two I can attest to being excellent are Champion Picks based in Melbourne and who seem to mainly concentrate on racing there and Redbelly Sports based in Sydney.Ed Kennett who is the ratings guru at Redbelly used to fill the same role at Champion Picks until a few years ago.I don't agree with their assessments all of the time and sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong but it's a measure of the respect I have for their work that I always review their prices when they post them on their sites after racing.Win or lose they both post their results and over time they both are consistently profitable.
Kennett in particular has an unparallelled handle on NSW racing and is a truly world class operator.I have no professional or financial involvement with either so mine is a totally unbiased and objective opinion.There may be other agencies who are also good but these two publish all their results and I've monitored them for a long time.
In short you have to have a solid and reliable idea of what you think the market should look like before you start getting involved.Something may look very short at say 1.80 but unless you have an accurate handle on the opposition you are really just guessing.Guessing won't cut it so there is no easy solution it's either put the time in and do the hard yards yourself or pay for ratings that you can trust to get results over time.
Trading Software & Odds Comparison
Anyone attempting to use Betfair seriously must have trading software.If you don't have it you are at a big disadvantage and cannot do any of the trades that will help you maximise your profits.
The three most popular that I am aware of are Bet Angel Pro,Racing Traders Evolution and Geeks Toy.I think Bet Angel has the most features and applications particularly for sports trading and is the most expensive of the three.I've used Racing Traders Evolution for a while and I'm used to it and cannot see a good reason to change.I pay ten UK pounds a month (A$18) and it's fantastic value.It's doesn't matter which one you choose as all do the same job but even if you are only playing at the weekend you'll never want to be without it once you have got used to it.Be careful with it at the beginning or you'll get burn't.It's very simple and easy to use once you get used to it a bit like riding a bike but expect to be wobbly when you start.All have how to use guides and all is explained in them but do be cautious initially until you are sure of what you are doing.
If you are backing or laying you have to know what's being offered in any market.Dynamic Odds is a fantastic product that has all major bookies odds plus Betfair and the TAB's.It updates every few seconds so you can see at a glance what's being offered and by whom.Like the trading software once you are used to it you'll never want to be without it.It cost's $30 a month and is a must have if you are a serious player.
Trader Laying To Increase Profits
Betfair markets on Australian racing have very little liquidity early ( except for Saturdays and major race days) and really don't start to develop until around 10mins out from start time.The liquidity gradually increases but I would say that around 80% of the business in done in the last couple of minutes.During those last two minutes there often is very little differential between what's been offered on Betfair (after commission is taken in to account) and what's available amongst the bookies and the TAB's-this is particularly the case at the front end of the market.Getting your lay bet in early really is the only way to be ahead of the market.You have to move before the market does but you also cannot be sure that the market will always moved the way you believe it should.If you want to increase your profits from laying you need to use leverage to do you.Here's a simple example:
10 minutes out from the start the favourite is at evens (2.0).Your analysis suggests that it should be at least 2.50 and that 2.0 is big unders.You have a lay liability of $100 each time you play so you are happy to lay the favourite at evens for $100.You think the favourite will blow/drift so you have another $100 at evens hoping to offload this liability at a more realistic price as the market develops.Your initial assessment proves correct and the price moves out to 2.50 at which point you back it for $66.66.If the favourite wins you have still only lost your original $100 but if it gets beat then your profit has increased from the original $100 to $133.33.
This is a very simplistic example but it illustrates how your margins will increase if you can call the market early.Getting in early is the only way that you will get the opportunity to take advantage of such a major market shift but it also leaves you exposed if the market confounds you and moves against you.Looking at the example above what should you do if the favourite shortened into 1.90?
Well you thought evens was unders and you were happy to lay it at that price believing it ought to be at least 2.50 so leave your original $100 lay in play but accept the trade hasn't worked and have $111 on the favourite at 1.90.If the favourite wins you have lost $100.10 and if it gets beat you have won $89.What you mustn't do is allow the odds to shorten further by hesitating.Accept the trade didn't work and get out quick.
As I said this is a simplistic example and the reality is far from simple but the principal of buying at one price and selling for more is the basis of all trade and it's simply a matter of getting it right most if not all of the time.
In Part Three I'm going to look at techniques for getting into the market and exiting and what you can reasonably expect to achieve if you are proving to be ok at it
Tuesday 17 December 2013
Laying For Profit On Betfair Part One
I didn't send any bets through last week either on the blog or through Twitter.Family issues got in the way of everything last week and once I have my routine and equilibrium knocked around I prefer not to get too involved.I was marginal on two horses to back and passed on both and both won (Magnapal on Wednesday and Kiss Me Ketut on Saturday).I took a few on on the "lay" side of the exchange and came out on the wrong side there so all in all a week best forgotten about.
There is no point in been involved in this game if you don't have the ability to put disappointments behind you quickly and realise that for every time you get a week when everything seems to conspire against you you'll get one or more just the opposite provided that you are thorough,logical and persistent.
I promised a blog about using Betfair for laying and some techniques to help get the profit levels up so here it is.
Laying For Profit On Betfair
Anyone looking to operate full time or part time as a pro punter really does have to seriously consider the options offered by being able to lay horses on Betfair.
The good news is that it offers the opportunity for sound, solid plays everyday and keeps you involved when you aren't able to find anything you want to back.
The bad news is that you'll be playing in shark infested waters and your going to have to be very good and very much on top of your subject to make it work profitably for you.
It's hard to turn your mindset around from being a backer into a layer and I know some very smart operators who simply cannot adjust.It's not for everyone but if you are doing the form thoroughly every day you are passing up a chance to do really well out of races that you are not interested in backing in.
Generally if I'm backing horses I want races that I can find a definite "shape" to.Two to four realistic chances taking up the vast majority of the book.Because I only think it's possible to be completely on top of the form if you narrow things down and specialize I concentrate on Victoria and Sydney Metro.That throws up 300/ 400 bets a year or 6 to 8 a week on average.That works out as a bet in only around 10% of the races and that makes it hard to stay focused and not get bored with the other 90%.Looking for "lay' opportunities in those other races keeps you alert and involved.
Firstly each day I highlight the races that it's possible I want to back one in.Those races I form a full market on based on my opinion.If I'm confident with my odds and I can get sufficient overs I'll bet.
With the other races I decide if there exists enough information for me to get some kind of a handle on it without necessarily fully pricing it up.
Most maidens I avoid because the market in these races is strongly influenced by what is private and not public knowledge.Half the runners may be unraced and I simply don't know how good they are.The runners in these races that you feel confident opposing are often too hard to lay without offering overs as others are looking to get them too.
With the handicaps and the non maidens I first sort the runners into order.Favourite at the top and the rag at the bottom.Then I block them into groups of 4.0 chances or less,8.0 chances or less,15.0 chances or less,26.0 chances or less and then finally the others.This gives me enough to work with in highlighting the ones that open up serious unders.
Generally it's the opposite of what I'm looking for when backing.When laying I want races that are either complex and tricky and the opening market doesn't acknowledge that fact sufficiently enough or races where the objectively I think the market is out of line with my assessment.
Ultimately you will stand or fall depending on your in depth knowledge of the racing in whatever location you choose to specialize in.If you are working alone and you want to take on races in every state each day I think you will struggle.In short you have to have a really strong grasp of what is going on in the theatre you are operating in.
If you are starting out trying to get a handle on 'laying" I would suggest keeping it as simple as possible to begin with.Start by only laying horses you think are big unders and that you really don't fancy at all.Horses you think should be double figure odds and you can get a lay bet matched at 8.0 or less.Fix a definite liability that is absolutely no more than 5% of your bank.Lay it as early in betting as you can as if your analysis is sound it should generally (but will not always) ease as the market develops.Don't chase the price out to get matched at any odds.You must know from the outset how high you are prepared to go.If others are offering better than your high then leave well alone.Don't worry at all about missing one or two as there are enough opportunities and another will soon come along.
When you've got used to doing it say, after a hundred or so lay bets have a look at your results.If you are doing ok look at how you might have done a little better maybe by being a bit more aggressive not just laying the ones you really don't like but also those you feel are definite "unders' even though it wouldn't surprise you if they won.If after a hundred lay bets your losing then ask yourself objectively if you've had a poor run or is your analysis flawed.How you answer that will determine what you do next.If your analysis is not good enough you have no hope of things working in you favour.100 bets isn't a big enough sample to determine anything with any certainty but you'll have a general idea if you can or if you cannot make it work for you
In an average week I probably "lay" around 40 horses.I lay them to lose a fixed amount irrespective of if they are odds on or in double figures.The average price is around 4.0.
The thing I really must stress is money management.It really never is acceptable to exceed you fixed liability.You have already determined what you are prepared to lose and at what price you are prepared to take on that liability.Don't bend at all.
Don't also be afraid of bailing out of a liability if there is something not right about the race and you think it's dodgy.Don't be afraid to accept a modest loss if the vibes aren't good.Respect the market.If it's screaming at you that all is not what it seems.
In all betting backing or laying you have to be ahead of the market if you are going to be successful.If you are generally backing even money chances that SP at 2.20 it's London to a Brick that over time you are going skint.Likewise if your laying evens and they are returning SP's at 1.90 you are going under.Once you've established that you are generally ahead of the market you can build on this to do even better.
In Part Two I'll be looking at how to use trading to help you do better at laying.This isn't for the faint hearted and it can be hugely frustrating if it goes wrong but it is the natural progression once you have started laying successfully and want to increase you margins.
There is no point in been involved in this game if you don't have the ability to put disappointments behind you quickly and realise that for every time you get a week when everything seems to conspire against you you'll get one or more just the opposite provided that you are thorough,logical and persistent.
I promised a blog about using Betfair for laying and some techniques to help get the profit levels up so here it is.
Laying For Profit On Betfair
Anyone looking to operate full time or part time as a pro punter really does have to seriously consider the options offered by being able to lay horses on Betfair.
The good news is that it offers the opportunity for sound, solid plays everyday and keeps you involved when you aren't able to find anything you want to back.
The bad news is that you'll be playing in shark infested waters and your going to have to be very good and very much on top of your subject to make it work profitably for you.
It's hard to turn your mindset around from being a backer into a layer and I know some very smart operators who simply cannot adjust.It's not for everyone but if you are doing the form thoroughly every day you are passing up a chance to do really well out of races that you are not interested in backing in.
Generally if I'm backing horses I want races that I can find a definite "shape" to.Two to four realistic chances taking up the vast majority of the book.Because I only think it's possible to be completely on top of the form if you narrow things down and specialize I concentrate on Victoria and Sydney Metro.That throws up 300/ 400 bets a year or 6 to 8 a week on average.That works out as a bet in only around 10% of the races and that makes it hard to stay focused and not get bored with the other 90%.Looking for "lay' opportunities in those other races keeps you alert and involved.
Firstly each day I highlight the races that it's possible I want to back one in.Those races I form a full market on based on my opinion.If I'm confident with my odds and I can get sufficient overs I'll bet.
With the other races I decide if there exists enough information for me to get some kind of a handle on it without necessarily fully pricing it up.
Most maidens I avoid because the market in these races is strongly influenced by what is private and not public knowledge.Half the runners may be unraced and I simply don't know how good they are.The runners in these races that you feel confident opposing are often too hard to lay without offering overs as others are looking to get them too.
With the handicaps and the non maidens I first sort the runners into order.Favourite at the top and the rag at the bottom.Then I block them into groups of 4.0 chances or less,8.0 chances or less,15.0 chances or less,26.0 chances or less and then finally the others.This gives me enough to work with in highlighting the ones that open up serious unders.
Generally it's the opposite of what I'm looking for when backing.When laying I want races that are either complex and tricky and the opening market doesn't acknowledge that fact sufficiently enough or races where the objectively I think the market is out of line with my assessment.
Ultimately you will stand or fall depending on your in depth knowledge of the racing in whatever location you choose to specialize in.If you are working alone and you want to take on races in every state each day I think you will struggle.In short you have to have a really strong grasp of what is going on in the theatre you are operating in.
If you are starting out trying to get a handle on 'laying" I would suggest keeping it as simple as possible to begin with.Start by only laying horses you think are big unders and that you really don't fancy at all.Horses you think should be double figure odds and you can get a lay bet matched at 8.0 or less.Fix a definite liability that is absolutely no more than 5% of your bank.Lay it as early in betting as you can as if your analysis is sound it should generally (but will not always) ease as the market develops.Don't chase the price out to get matched at any odds.You must know from the outset how high you are prepared to go.If others are offering better than your high then leave well alone.Don't worry at all about missing one or two as there are enough opportunities and another will soon come along.
When you've got used to doing it say, after a hundred or so lay bets have a look at your results.If you are doing ok look at how you might have done a little better maybe by being a bit more aggressive not just laying the ones you really don't like but also those you feel are definite "unders' even though it wouldn't surprise you if they won.If after a hundred lay bets your losing then ask yourself objectively if you've had a poor run or is your analysis flawed.How you answer that will determine what you do next.If your analysis is not good enough you have no hope of things working in you favour.100 bets isn't a big enough sample to determine anything with any certainty but you'll have a general idea if you can or if you cannot make it work for you
In an average week I probably "lay" around 40 horses.I lay them to lose a fixed amount irrespective of if they are odds on or in double figures.The average price is around 4.0.
The thing I really must stress is money management.It really never is acceptable to exceed you fixed liability.You have already determined what you are prepared to lose and at what price you are prepared to take on that liability.Don't bend at all.
Don't also be afraid of bailing out of a liability if there is something not right about the race and you think it's dodgy.Don't be afraid to accept a modest loss if the vibes aren't good.Respect the market.If it's screaming at you that all is not what it seems.
In all betting backing or laying you have to be ahead of the market if you are going to be successful.If you are generally backing even money chances that SP at 2.20 it's London to a Brick that over time you are going skint.Likewise if your laying evens and they are returning SP's at 1.90 you are going under.Once you've established that you are generally ahead of the market you can build on this to do even better.
In Part Two I'll be looking at how to use trading to help you do better at laying.This isn't for the faint hearted and it can be hugely frustrating if it goes wrong but it is the natural progression once you have started laying successfully and want to increase you margins.
Friday 13 December 2013
Flemington & Kensington Today
Flemington is a Dead 4 but is dry and probably upgrades.The Kensington track at Randwick is a Good 3 and it's expected to be dry there too.
I've had a week of turmoil with family matters so I'm not on top of things quite as much as usual.In the circumstances I'll probably not be backing today although I'm sure there will be a handful that I'm happy to lay.I think they are both very tricky cards but if I do find anything of note I'll send it via Twitter.Sorry it's not helpful today but it's been a hellish week
I've had a week of turmoil with family matters so I'm not on top of things quite as much as usual.In the circumstances I'll probably not be backing today although I'm sure there will be a handful that I'm happy to lay.I think they are both very tricky cards but if I do find anything of note I'll send it via Twitter.Sorry it's not helpful today but it's been a hellish week
Tuesday 10 December 2013
Caulfield & Warwick Farm Today
Caulfield is a Dead 5 and looking at the radar now it seems more than likely that the track may get some more rain so I doubt there will be an upgrade.monitor.Warwick farm is a Good 3 and a dry afternoon is forecast.
Cards don't come more difficult than the one at Caulfield today.Most of these races would slot nicely into the programmes at Echuca,Sale Warnambool,Terang,Kyneton etc.This is the problem created when there is too much racing.Midweek metro meetings in the off season look very ordinary indeed.The only possible race I could be interested in betting in is the last but I want to see the track conditions and pattern before doing anything there. There are a handful I'm keen to take on today but it depends on how high you have to go to get matched.Challenging day!
Warwick Farm may have possibilities but I had some family drama this morning and I haven't been able to do the form thoroughly as a result.Still working on it there.
If there is anything of note today I'll tweet it through.Sorry it's all a bit negative today but it's hard to enthuse about such a mediocre programme.
Cards don't come more difficult than the one at Caulfield today.Most of these races would slot nicely into the programmes at Echuca,Sale Warnambool,Terang,Kyneton etc.This is the problem created when there is too much racing.Midweek metro meetings in the off season look very ordinary indeed.The only possible race I could be interested in betting in is the last but I want to see the track conditions and pattern before doing anything there. There are a handful I'm keen to take on today but it depends on how high you have to go to get matched.Challenging day!
Warwick Farm may have possibilities but I had some family drama this morning and I haven't been able to do the form thoroughly as a result.Still working on it there.
If there is anything of note today I'll tweet it through.Sorry it's all a bit negative today but it's hard to enthuse about such a mediocre programme.
Friday 6 December 2013
Caulfield & Kensington Today
Caulfield is a Dead 4 and probably upgrades.Kensington is a Good 3.
No bets early in Sydney but an early one at Caulfield.
Caulfield
Race 7
Initiator went to the front last time and ran them ragged.That was on a very wet track but he's been fully effective on dry ground in the UK.The step up to 2000m has to be a positive and he can make all here today.4.50 is good value against my rated price of 3.50
Advised Bets: Initiator 1.40 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.50 for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.
Chance of one or two more later and details sent via Twitter
No bets early in Sydney but an early one at Caulfield.
Caulfield
Race 7
Initiator went to the front last time and ran them ragged.That was on a very wet track but he's been fully effective on dry ground in the UK.The step up to 2000m has to be a positive and he can make all here today.4.50 is good value against my rated price of 3.50
Advised Bets: Initiator 1.40 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.50 for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.
Chance of one or two more later and details sent via Twitter
Thursday 5 December 2013
Moonee Valley Tonight
Moonee Valley is posted a Dead 4 up from a Dead 5 this morning.It's generally dry in Melbourne so there is a chance it may upgrade again.
There is nothing that appeals from early markets tonight.It's not a very attractive card to be honest and markets would have to move around a lot for me to interested in backing anything tonight.
If I have any thoughts as the night wears on I'll post them on Twitter.
There is nothing that appeals from early markets tonight.It's not a very attractive card to be honest and markets would have to move around a lot for me to interested in backing anything tonight.
If I have any thoughts as the night wears on I'll post them on Twitter.
Tuesday 3 December 2013
Sale & Canterbury Today
Persistent rain this morning in Gippsland means the Dead 5 rating for Sale is likely to be way off the mark.Expect a very wet track.Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's likely to stay dry there.
definitely no bets today but plenty of activity for me on the "lay" side of the exchange.Lots of unreasonably short priced favs. in early markets to oppose if they are gettable -often they are not.When they go up far too short and start to blow it can be very hard pulling any money in for them on Betfair until they blow out beyond what a reasonable price is.Obviously by then there is no point in doing anything.Disappointing day for a Wednesday!
definitely no bets today but plenty of activity for me on the "lay" side of the exchange.Lots of unreasonably short priced favs. in early markets to oppose if they are gettable -often they are not.When they go up far too short and start to blow it can be very hard pulling any money in for them on Betfair until they blow out beyond what a reasonable price is.Obviously by then there is no point in doing anything.Disappointing day for a Wednesday!
Saturday 30 November 2013
November Round Up
A very quiet month bets wise particularly so with the Flemington Carnival kicking off the month.
The number of bets I've had on Australian racing this year is down considerably on last year and that's because my focus has moved much more on to the "lay' side of the exchange.It's been a gradual progression and it's taken me a while to get my exposure and money management to where I'm comfortable but it's starting to work very well for me now.There are big frustrations some days but it's betting so of course it's going to challenge you on numerous occasions.
I'll try to get a blog out over the next few days explaining some of the strategies I use on Betfair when looking to lay one.Meanwhile here is a blog from earlier in the year http://maxblakey.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/january-round-up-laying-horses.html.The blog I'll do soon will expand on this and looks at strategies that I now use to improve profitibility.
Here are the results for November and a nice winner yesterday puts the blog in black for the month.
UK and Overseas
No bets this month
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 10 races -2 winners
Stakes 13.90
Returns 11.94
LOSS 1.96 units
Tweets Bets advised in 9 races -2 winners
Stakes 7.0
Returns 14.98
PROFIT 7.98 units
Total for month PROFIT 6.02 units
The number of bets I've had on Australian racing this year is down considerably on last year and that's because my focus has moved much more on to the "lay' side of the exchange.It's been a gradual progression and it's taken me a while to get my exposure and money management to where I'm comfortable but it's starting to work very well for me now.There are big frustrations some days but it's betting so of course it's going to challenge you on numerous occasions.
I'll try to get a blog out over the next few days explaining some of the strategies I use on Betfair when looking to lay one.Meanwhile here is a blog from earlier in the year http://maxblakey.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/january-round-up-laying-horses.html.The blog I'll do soon will expand on this and looks at strategies that I now use to improve profitibility.
Here are the results for November and a nice winner yesterday puts the blog in black for the month.
UK and Overseas
No bets this month
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 10 races -2 winners
Stakes 13.90
Returns 11.94
LOSS 1.96 units
Tweets Bets advised in 9 races -2 winners
Stakes 7.0
Returns 14.98
PROFIT 7.98 units
Total for month PROFIT 6.02 units
Friday 29 November 2013
Caulfield & Rosehill Today
Caulfield is a Dead 4 and should upgrade.Rosehill is a Dead 5 with showers around at the moment but likely to die out.Monitor conditions there.
No analysis today as I don't have time to type it.No early bets but a chance of a speculative play or two through the afternoon.Details sent via Twitter.
Sorry it's brief today but had a lot of family stuff this morning
No analysis today as I don't have time to type it.No early bets but a chance of a speculative play or two through the afternoon.Details sent via Twitter.
Sorry it's brief today but had a lot of family stuff this morning
Thursday 28 November 2013
Moonee Valley Tonight
Good 3 posted at Moonee Valley.Light infrequent showers around Melbourne but nothing much to worry about.
Race 1
Keen that Kiss Me Ketup is the one to beat here.a lack of obvious pace is a bit of a worry as she was a bit keen early in the race when winning at Geelong.Go Again failed to take advantage of a soft opportunity at Cranbourne a couple of starts back and I'd be wary of backing her until she shows something more positive.Jessy Belle was suited by plenty of early pace in her last two starts and this is significantly harder.Kiss me Ketup was over 4.0 when betting opened and is now best priced 3.60.I'm already on but she is still good value on my figures which have her at 3.0
Advised Bet: Kiss Me Ketup 1.65 units at 3.10 or better-take the 3.60 now
That's the only race I've bet into early and generally it looks a trappy card.If I'm playing on anything else I'll send details via Twitter
Race 1
Keen that Kiss Me Ketup is the one to beat here.a lack of obvious pace is a bit of a worry as she was a bit keen early in the race when winning at Geelong.Go Again failed to take advantage of a soft opportunity at Cranbourne a couple of starts back and I'd be wary of backing her until she shows something more positive.Jessy Belle was suited by plenty of early pace in her last two starts and this is significantly harder.Kiss me Ketup was over 4.0 when betting opened and is now best priced 3.60.I'm already on but she is still good value on my figures which have her at 3.0
Advised Bet: Kiss Me Ketup 1.65 units at 3.10 or better-take the 3.60 now
That's the only race I've bet into early and generally it looks a trappy card.If I'm playing on anything else I'll send details via Twitter
Tuesday 26 November 2013
Bendigo & Canterbury Today & Last Week's Round Up
No joy last week off admittedly very little action.3 bets (blog and tweets) and no winners for a loss of 3.45 units.
Canterbury is a dead 4 and will probably get to a Good 3 as it's a fine warm day.No bets there at this stage and unlikely I'll be betting there today.
Bendigo is a Dead 4 but it's forecast dry and hot so an upgrade seems inevitable unless the track has been overwatered.
Bendigo
Race 5
This is a very difficult race to get a handle on.It's full of horses you naturally want to oppose but obviously one has to win.Melting Moments who can race on pace is favourite at around 3.0.She finished well over 1200m at Kyneton last time but is far from certain to run 1400m.She's probably entitled to be around the head of the market but 3.0 is far too short and at < 4.0 I'll be opposing.
Race 6
Oltre Finito was very impressive last prep and finished up a comfortable winner at a Sandown Midweek RB 72.Similar grade today and if he returns in the same form then obviously very hard to beat.Surprised they haven't gone straight to Saturday grade with him though considering how impressive he was last prep.Early quotes around 3.20 seemed surprisingly tempting and he's into 2.50.Bit wary here with this favourite.Edgewood,Little Bro and to a lesser extent Union Gap are other possibilities.
Race 7
Wimba produced a much better effort last time when just going down to the progressive Royal Island.He's lightly raced so he's entitled to get better but that was far better than he's shown before and it was on wet ground.He's the leader here so if he runs to that level again he'll be hard to toss.Just Reminiscing is the alternative-Linda Meech has the job of ensuring that Wimba doesn't get too much of a start on her.Chilli Beach is a query at 1600m.Not sure here
Race 8
There are I think only three hopes here.Cool Attraction ran away with a very moderate race at Donald last time.She's got young Thornton's 4kg claim again and is suited by the mile.She's got potential to do better so I can't entirely dismiss here here.She's Pretentious is a solid reliable type and she was clear second best last time after conceeding first run.Her problem is her get back run on style and the lack of obvious pace in this race.Galway Warrior ran away with a maiden here at the last meeting.She'll track the pace from a good gate and is clearly the most likely.2.50 is marginal value against my 2.35.
If I'm playing today I'll send details via twitter
Canterbury is a dead 4 and will probably get to a Good 3 as it's a fine warm day.No bets there at this stage and unlikely I'll be betting there today.
Bendigo is a Dead 4 but it's forecast dry and hot so an upgrade seems inevitable unless the track has been overwatered.
Bendigo
Race 5
This is a very difficult race to get a handle on.It's full of horses you naturally want to oppose but obviously one has to win.Melting Moments who can race on pace is favourite at around 3.0.She finished well over 1200m at Kyneton last time but is far from certain to run 1400m.She's probably entitled to be around the head of the market but 3.0 is far too short and at < 4.0 I'll be opposing.
Race 6
Oltre Finito was very impressive last prep and finished up a comfortable winner at a Sandown Midweek RB 72.Similar grade today and if he returns in the same form then obviously very hard to beat.Surprised they haven't gone straight to Saturday grade with him though considering how impressive he was last prep.Early quotes around 3.20 seemed surprisingly tempting and he's into 2.50.Bit wary here with this favourite.Edgewood,Little Bro and to a lesser extent Union Gap are other possibilities.
Race 7
Wimba produced a much better effort last time when just going down to the progressive Royal Island.He's lightly raced so he's entitled to get better but that was far better than he's shown before and it was on wet ground.He's the leader here so if he runs to that level again he'll be hard to toss.Just Reminiscing is the alternative-Linda Meech has the job of ensuring that Wimba doesn't get too much of a start on her.Chilli Beach is a query at 1600m.Not sure here
Race 8
There are I think only three hopes here.Cool Attraction ran away with a very moderate race at Donald last time.She's got young Thornton's 4kg claim again and is suited by the mile.She's got potential to do better so I can't entirely dismiss here here.She's Pretentious is a solid reliable type and she was clear second best last time after conceeding first run.Her problem is her get back run on style and the lack of obvious pace in this race.Galway Warrior ran away with a maiden here at the last meeting.She'll track the pace from a good gate and is clearly the most likely.2.50 is marginal value against my 2.35.
If I'm playing today I'll send details via twitter
Friday 22 November 2013
Saturday's Racing
Perth racing has it's big day today with the Railway and Winterbottom Stakes both at G1.It's a Good fast track at Ascot and the weather is fine and dry.
The Railway Stakes is a very good race this year but not hard to solve punting wise.I think the winner will come from the interstate challengers but really I'm not overly keen on betting on this race.
The Winterbottom is Buffering's race to lose really.He's the clear form pick.Local champion Barakey has at least two lengths to find to be able to beat Buffering at his best.That said I wouldn't be rushing in to take 2.20 about a horse after a hard campaign and a long trip across Australia to the West.
Sydney race on the Kensington circuit so that pre warns you that the card might not be all that flash.Some of the Saturday meeting they serve up in Sydney outside the Spring and Autumn are so substandard it's an embarrassment.It's a Dead 5 there and the forecast rain has just arrived around Sydney.Potentially there could be plenty of rain so it's guesswork as to what conditions will prevail come mid afternoon.I doubt I'll do anything there (backing wise) but if I do I'll send details via Twitter.
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and on the cusp of a Good 3 but there is rain around and whilst it's patchy some of it is quite heavy and it looks like it will persist.Depends how much hits the track-monitor.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
With Mokoro scratched this ought to be easier to solve but it isn't.Not keen on this race at all
Race 2
Thubiaan and Jumping Jack Cash both have 3kg claimers and that probably makes it very hard for the others.Of the two I marginally prefer Thubiaan but surprisingly he's very easy to back (out to 6.0 now with Bet 365).I may play here but I'm not yet committed
Race 3
This race is very ground dependent.If there is rain then the more the better for Double Dee who revelled in the wet conditions when bolting up at Ballarat-she's a rapidly improving mare and is a deserved favourite here.If it stays dry I Thorn Park is a very live hope and at around 7/8.00 i think I would back here if it's a genuinely dry track.Nautical and Chateau Latour are the other main players here.
Race 4
Wrong favourite here.Xavi is preffered in the Market to Lord Durante but I think they should be the other way around.Three runs ago Xavi went off 2.60 around here and was well beaten (there were excuses) racing off a mark of 78.He's up to 82 after a fine effort at Flemington.Lord Durante also ran very well over the Flemington Carnival and was only run down late.I think of the two respective races at Flemington Lord Durante's was marginally the better effort.He should find the lead here today and he's best when he gets left alone in front.He's hard a long campaign and that may be a negative but he does seem very tough and genuine.I have LD at 3.40 and Xavi at 3.80
Advised Bet: Lord Durante 1.50 units at 3.60 or better-take the 4.20 on offer now
Race 5
Should be good pace on here.Planet Voyage is favourite and Argee McLaren next best.As with the previous race I have them marginally the other way around with Argee at 3.70 and Planet V at 3.80.Argee has been a stready drifter so I won't rush in yet but I'll monitor on Betfair.
Advised Bet: Argee McLaren 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 6
Lot's of chances and very open-no strong opinions here
Race 7
Lot's of hopes and no strong opinions here
Race 8
Not overly keen on this race-very unlikely I'll play here
The Railway Stakes is a very good race this year but not hard to solve punting wise.I think the winner will come from the interstate challengers but really I'm not overly keen on betting on this race.
The Winterbottom is Buffering's race to lose really.He's the clear form pick.Local champion Barakey has at least two lengths to find to be able to beat Buffering at his best.That said I wouldn't be rushing in to take 2.20 about a horse after a hard campaign and a long trip across Australia to the West.
Sydney race on the Kensington circuit so that pre warns you that the card might not be all that flash.Some of the Saturday meeting they serve up in Sydney outside the Spring and Autumn are so substandard it's an embarrassment.It's a Dead 5 there and the forecast rain has just arrived around Sydney.Potentially there could be plenty of rain so it's guesswork as to what conditions will prevail come mid afternoon.I doubt I'll do anything there (backing wise) but if I do I'll send details via Twitter.
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and on the cusp of a Good 3 but there is rain around and whilst it's patchy some of it is quite heavy and it looks like it will persist.Depends how much hits the track-monitor.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
With Mokoro scratched this ought to be easier to solve but it isn't.Not keen on this race at all
Race 2
Thubiaan and Jumping Jack Cash both have 3kg claimers and that probably makes it very hard for the others.Of the two I marginally prefer Thubiaan but surprisingly he's very easy to back (out to 6.0 now with Bet 365).I may play here but I'm not yet committed
Race 3
This race is very ground dependent.If there is rain then the more the better for Double Dee who revelled in the wet conditions when bolting up at Ballarat-she's a rapidly improving mare and is a deserved favourite here.If it stays dry I Thorn Park is a very live hope and at around 7/8.00 i think I would back here if it's a genuinely dry track.Nautical and Chateau Latour are the other main players here.
Race 4
Wrong favourite here.Xavi is preffered in the Market to Lord Durante but I think they should be the other way around.Three runs ago Xavi went off 2.60 around here and was well beaten (there were excuses) racing off a mark of 78.He's up to 82 after a fine effort at Flemington.Lord Durante also ran very well over the Flemington Carnival and was only run down late.I think of the two respective races at Flemington Lord Durante's was marginally the better effort.He should find the lead here today and he's best when he gets left alone in front.He's hard a long campaign and that may be a negative but he does seem very tough and genuine.I have LD at 3.40 and Xavi at 3.80
Advised Bet: Lord Durante 1.50 units at 3.60 or better-take the 4.20 on offer now
Race 5
Should be good pace on here.Planet Voyage is favourite and Argee McLaren next best.As with the previous race I have them marginally the other way around with Argee at 3.70 and Planet V at 3.80.Argee has been a stready drifter so I won't rush in yet but I'll monitor on Betfair.
Advised Bet: Argee McLaren 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 6
Lot's of chances and very open-no strong opinions here
Race 7
Lot's of hopes and no strong opinions here
Race 8
Not overly keen on this race-very unlikely I'll play here
Tuesday 19 November 2013
Last Week's Round Up & Sale & Canterbury Today
Very quiet last week.Caught up on a few outstanding things unrelated to the racing.Just one bet advised all week,Cleverdude on Friday evening who was run down late so a LOSS of 2 units for the week.
Sale today is a Good 3 and it's dry there so expect fast ground.Canterbury is posted a Heavy 8 but it can dry out very quickly.No surprise to see this track get up to a Slow 6 or even better if it misses the few light rain showers that are possible.Probably won't play at Canterbury but I'll "tweet" the details if I do.
Sale
Race 1
Kievann has the most solid form.Girl In Flight won a modest maiden at Pakenham in very good style.Hard to be sure between these two.Both of these are around 2.60 which looks pretty close to the mark By the Grace is around 4.20 which looks far too short.
Race 5
Innocent Hero leads and will be very hard to run down.Odds on with most books but 2.0 with Bet 365.I need a bit more than that to consider backing it but wouldn't be opposing at current odds
Race 6
Sunset in Venice was a very strong winner of a modest maiden at Mornington.She's got plenty of upside but this is much tougher and at around 4.50 is plenty short enough.Young Girl (much better last time),Sheza A Single Girl (right in this if shows her best form) and both Spirit Of Soul and Tyanna resume and drop in grade.Tricky race
Race 7
Spelldancer will lead and that usually sets up a decent tempo.Dance For Cash has been racing really well this Spring but if the pace is on here she'll be vulnerable late as I think she's better at shorter.Royal Island is promising but made heavy weather of winning last week and did plenty wrong there being very wayward.Faster ground may help him but 3.60 looks far too short.Waterford Hill was OK resuming running on late but overall I think he needs further to show is best and 4.60 looks very skinny.Aurum Spirit will be well suited if they do run along here and is drawn to get a nice trail just off the pace.He's been a steady improver and although he'll be stretching out to further trips he's a very live hope here.His comeback effort at Cranbourne was very good and I have him priced at 6.0 here and 9.50 is on offer.
Advised Bet; Aurum Spirit 0.90 units at 6.50 or better-take the 9.50 with Sportsbet/IAS
Race 8
Tombola got a soft lead when winning last time at Mornington and may do so again here.The extra trip suits and whilst this a harder race I think he'll go well.Duplicity Jones won a city maiden before spelling and resumes after having a solid hitout in a recent 1550m trial whilst Rockfest won a standard maiden here last time.Maiden winners going straight into BM 70 races are not usually my go but both of these are likely to be highly competitive here.These three horses all sit around the 8.0 mark making them collectively around 2.66 which has me tempted but not yet committed.Early favourite here is Prince Jester around 3.50 which is at least three points less than the price I think he should be.If I play here I'll tweet.
Sale today is a Good 3 and it's dry there so expect fast ground.Canterbury is posted a Heavy 8 but it can dry out very quickly.No surprise to see this track get up to a Slow 6 or even better if it misses the few light rain showers that are possible.Probably won't play at Canterbury but I'll "tweet" the details if I do.
Sale
Race 1
Kievann has the most solid form.Girl In Flight won a modest maiden at Pakenham in very good style.Hard to be sure between these two.Both of these are around 2.60 which looks pretty close to the mark By the Grace is around 4.20 which looks far too short.
Race 5
Innocent Hero leads and will be very hard to run down.Odds on with most books but 2.0 with Bet 365.I need a bit more than that to consider backing it but wouldn't be opposing at current odds
Race 6
Sunset in Venice was a very strong winner of a modest maiden at Mornington.She's got plenty of upside but this is much tougher and at around 4.50 is plenty short enough.Young Girl (much better last time),Sheza A Single Girl (right in this if shows her best form) and both Spirit Of Soul and Tyanna resume and drop in grade.Tricky race
Race 7
Spelldancer will lead and that usually sets up a decent tempo.Dance For Cash has been racing really well this Spring but if the pace is on here she'll be vulnerable late as I think she's better at shorter.Royal Island is promising but made heavy weather of winning last week and did plenty wrong there being very wayward.Faster ground may help him but 3.60 looks far too short.Waterford Hill was OK resuming running on late but overall I think he needs further to show is best and 4.60 looks very skinny.Aurum Spirit will be well suited if they do run along here and is drawn to get a nice trail just off the pace.He's been a steady improver and although he'll be stretching out to further trips he's a very live hope here.His comeback effort at Cranbourne was very good and I have him priced at 6.0 here and 9.50 is on offer.
Advised Bet; Aurum Spirit 0.90 units at 6.50 or better-take the 9.50 with Sportsbet/IAS
Race 8
Tombola got a soft lead when winning last time at Mornington and may do so again here.The extra trip suits and whilst this a harder race I think he'll go well.Duplicity Jones won a city maiden before spelling and resumes after having a solid hitout in a recent 1550m trial whilst Rockfest won a standard maiden here last time.Maiden winners going straight into BM 70 races are not usually my go but both of these are likely to be highly competitive here.These three horses all sit around the 8.0 mark making them collectively around 2.66 which has me tempted but not yet committed.Early favourite here is Prince Jester around 3.50 which is at least three points less than the price I think he should be.If I play here I'll tweet.
Friday 15 November 2013
Caulfield & Rosehill Today
Last day of Melbourne's Spring Carnival at Caulfield (transferred from Sandown which is closed for renervations).Track is posted a Dead 4 and there is a hint it may be a tad slower than that to begin with.Dry day so normally you'd expect an upgrade.Monitor.
Rosehill is a Dead 5 and there are some very heavy showers around which will have a serious impact on conditions if they hit.Monitor.
With the uncertainty regarding Rosehill there is little point in going off early there as at this stage it's pure guesswork as to the conditions that will prevail as the day wears on.
At Caulfield the early races are very obvious to sort and as a result the markets are very tight to my figures.I think Caravan Rolls On is very hard to beat in Race 2 IF it's a genuinely dry track.S.Hyland reported this morning that the track had "plenty of give in it".Until Race 8 the markets otherwise are offering little varience to what I have at least on anything I might be tempted to back.
Race 8 has Platelet as a well backed favourite at around 3.30 which looks plenty short enough now.I thought around 4.20 was the mark for her.There are a few hopes here but overall it's not a race I'm comfortable with.
In Race 9 I thought the first two in betting were both definite unders.Floria seems well treated but I think 1400m is her best trip and 2.80 looks woeful unders.>4.0 surely.Likewise Wistful who on official ratings has to find 17 points to be competitive here.That official rating was raised by 15 points after her easy win at Flemington.So she needs 32 points of improvement from her October win in Sydney in a NMW event.That Flemington race despite being at the Carnival wasn't a very strong race and she's too short at 6.0-has a poor gate too.
Markets will fluctuate and opportunities may present later but no bets at this stage.If I'm playing details sent via twitter as early as possible.
Rosehill is a Dead 5 and there are some very heavy showers around which will have a serious impact on conditions if they hit.Monitor.
With the uncertainty regarding Rosehill there is little point in going off early there as at this stage it's pure guesswork as to the conditions that will prevail as the day wears on.
At Caulfield the early races are very obvious to sort and as a result the markets are very tight to my figures.I think Caravan Rolls On is very hard to beat in Race 2 IF it's a genuinely dry track.S.Hyland reported this morning that the track had "plenty of give in it".Until Race 8 the markets otherwise are offering little varience to what I have at least on anything I might be tempted to back.
Race 8 has Platelet as a well backed favourite at around 3.30 which looks plenty short enough now.I thought around 4.20 was the mark for her.There are a few hopes here but overall it's not a race I'm comfortable with.
In Race 9 I thought the first two in betting were both definite unders.Floria seems well treated but I think 1400m is her best trip and 2.80 looks woeful unders.>4.0 surely.Likewise Wistful who on official ratings has to find 17 points to be competitive here.That official rating was raised by 15 points after her easy win at Flemington.So she needs 32 points of improvement from her October win in Sydney in a NMW event.That Flemington race despite being at the Carnival wasn't a very strong race and she's too short at 6.0-has a poor gate too.
Markets will fluctuate and opportunities may present later but no bets at this stage.If I'm playing details sent via twitter as early as possible.
Thursday 14 November 2013
Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4.it's dry and any rain if it comes will be minimal so it probably upgrades to a Good 3.Canterbury is a Dead 4.There are heavy thundery showers around Sydney at the moment but they are patchy.If the track gets hit then it will probably end up wet but if they miss it will upgrade to Good 3.Monitor.
A handful of possibilities tonight but only one bet at early prices and unfortunately the best odds have gone now.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
Cleverdude has had a few weeks off missing the big guns through the carnival.He's very good fresh,is two from two over this track and distance,has the plum gate for a speed horse in 1 and get's young Maloney taking off 3kg.He's suited at the weight here and frankly is much better than these.I have him a 2.50 chance and they bet > 4.0 earlier in the day amazingly.Still 3.50 with Luxbet and that's great value still
Advised Bet: Cleverdude 2 units at 2.75 or better-take the 3.50 now
Anymore tonight sent via Twitter
A handful of possibilities tonight but only one bet at early prices and unfortunately the best odds have gone now.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
Cleverdude has had a few weeks off missing the big guns through the carnival.He's very good fresh,is two from two over this track and distance,has the plum gate for a speed horse in 1 and get's young Maloney taking off 3kg.He's suited at the weight here and frankly is much better than these.I have him a 2.50 chance and they bet > 4.0 earlier in the day amazingly.Still 3.50 with Luxbet and that's great value still
Advised Bet: Cleverdude 2 units at 2.75 or better-take the 3.50 now
Anymore tonight sent via Twitter
Tuesday 12 November 2013
Last Weeks Round Up and Ballarat & Warwick Farm Today
I missed the boat as far as this year's Spring Carnival was concerned and although there is a very modest profit so far in November it's definitely a case of what might have been.As a result I was feeling a bit deflated through Sunday and Monday particularly as some very good judges who's opinions I greatly respect had excellent results last week.That's it now for really good racing this year apart from a few odd days (this Saturday at Caulfield,a couple of decent days in Perth and the Hong Kong meeting next month) otherwise it's the usual Summer offering of plenty of racing but not much quality.
Here's last weeks results:
Blog Bets in 4 races-1 winner
Stakes 5.00
Returns 6.00
Profit 1.00 unit
Tweets Bets advised in 5 races-1 winner
Stakes 3.95
Returns 5.98
Profit 2.03 units
Overall for week PROFIT 3.03 units
Ballarat has a Dead 4 posted which I'm not overly confident about and there is a possibility of rain.Warwick Farm is a Heavy 8 but it's warm and sunny so it probably upgrades as the afternoon wears on.There is a strong possibility of a bet in Race 7 at Ballarat and if I'm playing I'll send a "tweet" 10mins or more before off time.Other races there I'll be laying not backing.Warwick Farm has been difficult with the Heavy and the likelihood of it drying out.Again if I'm playing I'll send details via Twitter
Here's last weeks results:
Blog Bets in 4 races-1 winner
Stakes 5.00
Returns 6.00
Profit 1.00 unit
Tweets Bets advised in 5 races-1 winner
Stakes 3.95
Returns 5.98
Profit 2.03 units
Overall for week PROFIT 3.03 units
Ballarat has a Dead 4 posted which I'm not overly confident about and there is a possibility of rain.Warwick Farm is a Heavy 8 but it's warm and sunny so it probably upgrades as the afternoon wears on.There is a strong possibility of a bet in Race 7 at Ballarat and if I'm playing I'll send a "tweet" 10mins or more before off time.Other races there I'll be laying not backing.Warwick Farm has been difficult with the Heavy and the likelihood of it drying out.Again if I'm playing I'll send details via Twitter
Friday 8 November 2013
Flemington Carnival-final Day -Part Two
Looking at the radar there is still rain around Flemington and it seems certain to get more as the afternoon progresses.It does drain very well though so a light shower or two probably won't make much difference.Tricky to be confident about what's likely to happen weather wise.
Randwick is a Good 3 and a dry day there at the moment but thundery showers are forecast for late afternoon.All this weather uncertainty makes it pointless going off early about any thing.Any bets today will be sent via twitter
Flemington
Race 7
This is a cracking race but it's very difficult to identify any value about the ones I would be interested in backing.I'll pass here at this stage.
Race 8
Forgotten Voice will be a different proposition to Geelong last time if it's a genuine Dead 4 by this time.Really he wants it rattling fast though so any moisture will disadvantage him.Sertorius is an admirable racehorse and if he can run out 2800m he be involved.Precedence bounced back last time and his Flemington form is very good.Kellini was poor last week but he could back bounce here and there are other possibilities here too.Overall I think Sertorius is entitled to be favourite.I'm not committed to anything here at the moment.
Race 9
Disciple has improved with each preperation and I expect that improvement to continue. He'll need a career best to win this but I have him on top.Karacatis ran very well last Saturday and is a very live hope if he can run a strong 1400m but it's a big 'if'.Henwood is promising,Longport has very good form around high quality mares and the Darley runners have to be considered.Not committed at the moment
Will Tweet if I'm betting anywhere
Randwick is a Good 3 and a dry day there at the moment but thundery showers are forecast for late afternoon.All this weather uncertainty makes it pointless going off early about any thing.Any bets today will be sent via twitter
Flemington
Race 7
This is a cracking race but it's very difficult to identify any value about the ones I would be interested in backing.I'll pass here at this stage.
Race 8
Forgotten Voice will be a different proposition to Geelong last time if it's a genuine Dead 4 by this time.Really he wants it rattling fast though so any moisture will disadvantage him.Sertorius is an admirable racehorse and if he can run out 2800m he be involved.Precedence bounced back last time and his Flemington form is very good.Kellini was poor last week but he could back bounce here and there are other possibilities here too.Overall I think Sertorius is entitled to be favourite.I'm not committed to anything here at the moment.
Race 9
Disciple has improved with each preperation and I expect that improvement to continue. He'll need a career best to win this but I have him on top.Karacatis ran very well last Saturday and is a very live hope if he can run a strong 1400m but it's a big 'if'.Henwood is promising,Longport has very good form around high quality mares and the Darley runners have to be considered.Not committed at the moment
Will Tweet if I'm betting anywhere
Flemington Carnival-Final Day Part One
I've had no internet for 3 hours this morning so I'm a bit behind with everything.I'll do the blog in two parts today.Part two covering later races will be upafter race 3 at Flemington and I'll include anything for Randwick in that part.
Flemington is a Dead 4 and there is rain around.Doubt there will be an upgrade and if enough rain hits the track it could be a Dead 5 at some stage.That would alter my thinking on a few runners here today so monitoring conditions is vital.
Race 1
No opinion
Race 2
This is a tight race although I think that the market is right having Sysmo,Proverb and Electric fusion at the head of things.No strong opinion here
Race 3
Sharalan is hard to oppose after an eye catching run last time.2.50 is what I have him rated here and that's around the general quote.I'm not that keen backing get back horses at short odds unless I no there is definitely plenty of speed on up front.No such guarantees here.Pass
Race 4
Barbed in fully entitled to be favourite here but I found this a most difficult race to price up with any confidence.I'm not getting involved here.
Race 5
Lake Sententia is a worthy favourite after a big run when very wide at Moonee Valley last time.The step up in trip will suit and she'll be around the money granted even luck in running.I had her at 4.20 here so the 3.80 on offer doesn't tempt me although if it were a Dead 5 then I'd probably promote her a bit.Zonza on dry ground would be my bet here but I'm not playing if it gets any wetter
Race 6
Thought this was a bit more open than the market suggest.Lucky Nine only has form really on dry although it was officially Dead 4 when he ran second to Buffering at the Valley.Moment Of Change was held up behind both of them there and would have given both plenty to think about if he'd have got a good crack at them ditto Rebel Dane.I think it should be 5.0/5.50 the field here.I'm monitoring the track here before committing
Back with the rest later
Flemington is a Dead 4 and there is rain around.Doubt there will be an upgrade and if enough rain hits the track it could be a Dead 5 at some stage.That would alter my thinking on a few runners here today so monitoring conditions is vital.
Race 1
No opinion
Race 2
This is a tight race although I think that the market is right having Sysmo,Proverb and Electric fusion at the head of things.No strong opinion here
Race 3
Sharalan is hard to oppose after an eye catching run last time.2.50 is what I have him rated here and that's around the general quote.I'm not that keen backing get back horses at short odds unless I no there is definitely plenty of speed on up front.No such guarantees here.Pass
Race 4
Barbed in fully entitled to be favourite here but I found this a most difficult race to price up with any confidence.I'm not getting involved here.
Race 5
Lake Sententia is a worthy favourite after a big run when very wide at Moonee Valley last time.The step up in trip will suit and she'll be around the money granted even luck in running.I had her at 4.20 here so the 3.80 on offer doesn't tempt me although if it were a Dead 5 then I'd probably promote her a bit.Zonza on dry ground would be my bet here but I'm not playing if it gets any wetter
Race 6
Thought this was a bit more open than the market suggest.Lucky Nine only has form really on dry although it was officially Dead 4 when he ran second to Buffering at the Valley.Moment Of Change was held up behind both of them there and would have given both plenty to think about if he'd have got a good crack at them ditto Rebel Dane.I think it should be 5.0/5.50 the field here.I'm monitoring the track here before committing
Back with the rest later
Wednesday 6 November 2013
Flemington Carnival-Oaks Day
Flemington is posted a Dead 4 but will quickly upgrade to a Good 3.There is a slight chance of some rain but it's likely to be light if it does come.Sydney horses have had a good Carnival so far and whilst that trend may continue there is the likelihood that they may be overbet over the remaining couple of days.There is evidence of this in some of the early quotes around today.
Race 1
Marmelo is into 2.50 and that looks a bit thin on what has been achieved so far.Mambo Lady is the leader here and she may get away with a cosy run up front.I'd be more interested in backing her at odds than Marmelo at 2.50 but haven't committed to anything at this stage.
Race 2
There is no obvious pace in this race.That makes Multilateral a poor proposition at the 3.25 top quote currently on offer.He's entitled to be favourite but 3.25 is very skinny.There are plenty of chances in this race but the pace (lack of) makes it difficult to price up with confidence.Ominous is a bit of a nutter but if he ever settles early in a race he'll take some beating.The cross over noseband is tried today and if it works 20.0 is a very generous quote.Others with mayne more to offer than they have already shown are Canonized,Name The Day,Mintaro,Red Inca and Slade De Cerisy
Race 3
This is a very tricky race and it's easy to pass here
Race 4
Dystopia was 6.0 in early betting but with the scratchings reducing that price to around 4.70 she really only been a marginal firmer at around the current 4.40.She was unlucky in this race last year having been held up for 100m and just failed to catch Honey Flower.I had a decent bet on her that day.She's had a similar preparation as last year and she is definitely the top choice here.If anything I think this race is a tad harder this year and I don't think there is much fat in her price at the moment.She'll settle midfield and with the tendency to bunch up down the straight getting a run is potential negative again.I'd play at around 5.0 but I think that's unlikely at this stage
Race 5
This race is for Grey horses only.Members Joy is favourite at around 3.80.She's drawn wide and will probable go back.Her mark of 84 is pretty generous really and she 's a hope but I'm not entirely convinced that 1400m is her go.Too short I think.Footy Fan is next best in the market at 4.20 which is insanely short in my opinion although I know a couple of shrewd judges fancy it.It got beat in a much weaker race than this up in Sydney last time and I've already layed it at early quotes-should be at least 9.0.Freshwater Storm bolted in both starts this prep.The latest was in the Grey's race at Caulfield.He's flying and he should be favourite here but is 6.50 and will probably be better closer to post time.Black Cash was posted wide last time and Misty Eyes will be fitter-both are hopes
Race 6
Kirramosa well backed this morning and into 2.70 which is far too short.If ever there was a race to give the elbow to from a punting angle it's this one.It's a very,very moderate race with all of them currently rated <100 and most unlikely ever to reach that figure
Race 7
Gallatin at 2.20 is very short coming off a hard fought win in a Warwick Farm maiden.I don't like this race betting wise.
Race 8
If the good Snitzerland turns up here then this should be her's for the taking.It's a big "if' though after the way she dropped away tamely last time.That was at G1 level though and maybe the ground was a bit too moist for her there.Pass
Race 9
I really like Pro Tour but rattling fast ground is an unknown for him.If it rained and went a genuine Dead I'd start getting keener.If I'm playing here or anywhere else this afternoon I'll send details via twitter
Advised Bet: Freshwater Storm 1 unit at 5.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 1
Marmelo is into 2.50 and that looks a bit thin on what has been achieved so far.Mambo Lady is the leader here and she may get away with a cosy run up front.I'd be more interested in backing her at odds than Marmelo at 2.50 but haven't committed to anything at this stage.
Race 2
There is no obvious pace in this race.That makes Multilateral a poor proposition at the 3.25 top quote currently on offer.He's entitled to be favourite but 3.25 is very skinny.There are plenty of chances in this race but the pace (lack of) makes it difficult to price up with confidence.Ominous is a bit of a nutter but if he ever settles early in a race he'll take some beating.The cross over noseband is tried today and if it works 20.0 is a very generous quote.Others with mayne more to offer than they have already shown are Canonized,Name The Day,Mintaro,Red Inca and Slade De Cerisy
Race 3
This is a very tricky race and it's easy to pass here
Race 4
Dystopia was 6.0 in early betting but with the scratchings reducing that price to around 4.70 she really only been a marginal firmer at around the current 4.40.She was unlucky in this race last year having been held up for 100m and just failed to catch Honey Flower.I had a decent bet on her that day.She's had a similar preparation as last year and she is definitely the top choice here.If anything I think this race is a tad harder this year and I don't think there is much fat in her price at the moment.She'll settle midfield and with the tendency to bunch up down the straight getting a run is potential negative again.I'd play at around 5.0 but I think that's unlikely at this stage
Race 5
This race is for Grey horses only.Members Joy is favourite at around 3.80.She's drawn wide and will probable go back.Her mark of 84 is pretty generous really and she 's a hope but I'm not entirely convinced that 1400m is her go.Too short I think.Footy Fan is next best in the market at 4.20 which is insanely short in my opinion although I know a couple of shrewd judges fancy it.It got beat in a much weaker race than this up in Sydney last time and I've already layed it at early quotes-should be at least 9.0.Freshwater Storm bolted in both starts this prep.The latest was in the Grey's race at Caulfield.He's flying and he should be favourite here but is 6.50 and will probably be better closer to post time.Black Cash was posted wide last time and Misty Eyes will be fitter-both are hopes
Race 6
Kirramosa well backed this morning and into 2.70 which is far too short.If ever there was a race to give the elbow to from a punting angle it's this one.It's a very,very moderate race with all of them currently rated <100 and most unlikely ever to reach that figure
Race 7
Gallatin at 2.20 is very short coming off a hard fought win in a Warwick Farm maiden.I don't like this race betting wise.
Race 8
If the good Snitzerland turns up here then this should be her's for the taking.It's a big "if' though after the way she dropped away tamely last time.That was at G1 level though and maybe the ground was a bit too moist for her there.Pass
Race 9
I really like Pro Tour but rattling fast ground is an unknown for him.If it rained and went a genuine Dead I'd start getting keener.If I'm playing here or anywhere else this afternoon I'll send details via twitter
Advised Bet: Freshwater Storm 1 unit at 5.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
Monday 4 November 2013
Flemington Carnival-Melbourne Cup Day
Warm and Sunny day expected in Melbourne for the Cup.Flemington is a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 sooner rather than later.Randwick is a Good 3 and a dry day is expected there too.
I priced up the Cup yesterday and my ratings are in the previous blog.If there are any bets at Randwick I'll send them through via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
Mostly unraced 2-y-olds.Pass
Race 2
Most complex and definitely no bet here
Race 3
Opinion is a decent horse but he's blown the start twice in a row now.His UK form is really high class handicaps and he's the type of horse that should do really well out here in Australia but the gate problems are enough to put me off backing him here.Caravan Rolls On is a quality handicapper and the trip and the fast ground will suit him.He's got a wide gate to overcome as does Junood another UK import.On their UK form these three are closely handicapped and I think they are a grade above the opposition here.May play here but not committed yet
Race 4
Arinosa is a worthy favourite.Her last start at G1 level is a total forgive run and back to mares grade she'll be very competitive.There are a few hopes here though and 3.30 is a bit too short I think.Happy to pass on this one
Race 5
Official ratings have Kuroshio well on top here.I think his mark of 102 is too high though and around 92 would be a more realistic figure in my opinion.That makes this far more open.There are plenty of potential improvers here and I will not be playing here
Race 6
Moderate was hugely impressive winning a modest event up in Sydney last time.2.10 is very short for what she's achieved on paper but she did look as though there would be plenty more to come.Politeness is also a tad short at 3.50 but back in trip she's a live hope.Not betting here-these two are too short to back but I don't really want to oppose them either
Race 7
I think there is value in Fiorente (marginal but enough),Sea Moon,Fawkner and Brown Panther and I'm happy to take those four against the field.Fiorente has the best recent Australian form along with Fawkner and it's possible that both still have further improvement in them.Sea Moon hasn't matched his best form yet in his Australian runs but he's been first past the post in his last two starts and I think he just being getting fitter.If he shows up at his best here today then he'll be mighty hard to beat.Brown Panther is drawn to get a good run on the pace.He's a genuine stayer with a real touch of class and the prospect of a good run gives him a live hope
Advised Bets: Fiorente 0.75 units at 7.50 or better
Fawkner 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Sea Moon 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Brown Panther 0.35 units at 16.0 or better
Shop around there are many offers on today
Race 8
Very Keen Rain Drum here.4.0 is gone but 3.80 against my rating of 3.20 is still value.Favourite Salon Soldier is too short at < 2.50 and I think Rain drum who leads and controls the race should be favourite.
Advised Bet: Rain Drum 1.55 units at 3.30 or better-take the 3.80 on offer now
Race 9
Very open and too hard
Race 10
Happy to take a chance that The New Boy will be ready to show his best after a clean out run last time.The blinkers are back on and he'll got a cosy run up on the speed.13.0 is good value against my rating of 9.0
Advised Bet; The New Boy 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer now
Enjoy the day!
I priced up the Cup yesterday and my ratings are in the previous blog.If there are any bets at Randwick I'll send them through via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
Mostly unraced 2-y-olds.Pass
Race 2
Most complex and definitely no bet here
Race 3
Opinion is a decent horse but he's blown the start twice in a row now.His UK form is really high class handicaps and he's the type of horse that should do really well out here in Australia but the gate problems are enough to put me off backing him here.Caravan Rolls On is a quality handicapper and the trip and the fast ground will suit him.He's got a wide gate to overcome as does Junood another UK import.On their UK form these three are closely handicapped and I think they are a grade above the opposition here.May play here but not committed yet
Race 4
Arinosa is a worthy favourite.Her last start at G1 level is a total forgive run and back to mares grade she'll be very competitive.There are a few hopes here though and 3.30 is a bit too short I think.Happy to pass on this one
Race 5
Official ratings have Kuroshio well on top here.I think his mark of 102 is too high though and around 92 would be a more realistic figure in my opinion.That makes this far more open.There are plenty of potential improvers here and I will not be playing here
Race 6
Moderate was hugely impressive winning a modest event up in Sydney last time.2.10 is very short for what she's achieved on paper but she did look as though there would be plenty more to come.Politeness is also a tad short at 3.50 but back in trip she's a live hope.Not betting here-these two are too short to back but I don't really want to oppose them either
Race 7
I think there is value in Fiorente (marginal but enough),Sea Moon,Fawkner and Brown Panther and I'm happy to take those four against the field.Fiorente has the best recent Australian form along with Fawkner and it's possible that both still have further improvement in them.Sea Moon hasn't matched his best form yet in his Australian runs but he's been first past the post in his last two starts and I think he just being getting fitter.If he shows up at his best here today then he'll be mighty hard to beat.Brown Panther is drawn to get a good run on the pace.He's a genuine stayer with a real touch of class and the prospect of a good run gives him a live hope
Advised Bets: Fiorente 0.75 units at 7.50 or better
Fawkner 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Sea Moon 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Brown Panther 0.35 units at 16.0 or better
Shop around there are many offers on today
Race 8
Very Keen Rain Drum here.4.0 is gone but 3.80 against my rating of 3.20 is still value.Favourite Salon Soldier is too short at < 2.50 and I think Rain drum who leads and controls the race should be favourite.
Advised Bet: Rain Drum 1.55 units at 3.30 or better-take the 3.80 on offer now
Race 9
Very open and too hard
Race 10
Happy to take a chance that The New Boy will be ready to show his best after a clean out run last time.The blinkers are back on and he'll got a cosy run up on the speed.13.0 is good value against my rating of 9.0
Advised Bet; The New Boy 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer now
Enjoy the day!
Melbourne Cup-Market Assessment & Comments
It's dry in Melbourne and the forecast for Cup day is sunny and warm.Flemington is currently a Dead 4 and overnight watering will keep it that way but it'll be good fast racing ground once things get under way you'd think.
Here are my rated prices for the race
Fiorente 7.0
Sea Moon 12.0
Fawkner 12.0
Mount Athos 12.0
Brown Panther 15.0
Verena 15.0
Seville 17.0
Simenon 21.0
Dandino 26.0
Royal Empire 26.0
Vole.De C. 26.0
Hawkspur 29.0
Super Cool 34.0
Green Moon 34.0
Dear Demi 34.0
Dunaden 41.0
Tres Blue 41.0
Foreteller 67.0
Ruscello 67.0
Masked Marvel 67.0
Mourayan 67.0
Red Cadeaux 101.0
Ethiopia 151.0
Ibecenco 151.0
Fiorente is fully entitled to be favourite with excellent lead up form,and a good gate.Before I got right into the analysis I'd thought I'd have him shorter than the 7.0 that I've finally settled on.I think it's a tough race this year to bet into with any great confidence.The two that are on offer at a decent margin to my figures are Fawkner and Brown Panther although at this stage I haven't backed anything.
I'll make a decision tomorrow betting wise and will have a look at the other races in tomorrow's blog
Here are my rated prices for the race
Fiorente 7.0
Sea Moon 12.0
Fawkner 12.0
Mount Athos 12.0
Brown Panther 15.0
Verena 15.0
Seville 17.0
Simenon 21.0
Dandino 26.0
Royal Empire 26.0
Vole.De C. 26.0
Hawkspur 29.0
Super Cool 34.0
Green Moon 34.0
Dear Demi 34.0
Dunaden 41.0
Tres Blue 41.0
Foreteller 67.0
Ruscello 67.0
Masked Marvel 67.0
Mourayan 67.0
Red Cadeaux 101.0
Ethiopia 151.0
Ibecenco 151.0
Fiorente is fully entitled to be favourite with excellent lead up form,and a good gate.Before I got right into the analysis I'd thought I'd have him shorter than the 7.0 that I've finally settled on.I think it's a tough race this year to bet into with any great confidence.The two that are on offer at a decent margin to my figures are Fawkner and Brown Panther although at this stage I haven't backed anything.
I'll make a decision tomorrow betting wise and will have a look at the other races in tomorrow's blog
Friday 1 November 2013
Flemington Carnival-Derby Day
Flemington's Carnival gets under way with the Victorian Derby the highlight and three other G1's also on the card.Dead 4 posted but with no significant rain around you'd expect an upgrade.After Bendigo on Wednesday when the wrong ground was posted initially and then upgraded but still fell short of accuracy I not entirely convinced that Flemington is a genuine Dead 4.Sam Hyland described it this morning as having "good cover and give".Monitor.
In Sydney Rosehill is a Good 3 and any rain there will be very light so expect fast ground.No early bets at Rosehill but a couple of possibilities so if I'm playing I'll send details via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
I can't oppose Hucklebuck and at around evens I think he's accurately priced.
Race 2
May's Dream has her final's day in the Oaks on Thursday.She's the best horse here and is hard to oppose form wise but if I'm backing one at 2.40 I want to know that it's going round "with all guns blazing".That isn't the case when your main objective comes up in five days time.Pass
Race 3
Kelinni was 11.0 earlier in the week but is now into 6.50.I have him on top in a tricky race but he's about the right price now.This is not an easy race to unravel.No bet for me.
Race 4
Bookies have eased Zoustar out to Evens.He's looked very good in Sydney but I'm not sure he's beaten anything that special yet.Waller has been very bullish about him and that resulted in him been sold earlier in the week for plenty.For the old connections the job is done and it's a good one.The new owners will find out if the got there money's worth this afternoon.Found this race hard to price confidently.Pass
Race 5
I think Jet Away is a bit too short here at 3.0.He's entitled to be on top but at around a point longer I think.I can't emphatically rule anything out in this race.I'm not backing anything but if I was given a free bet I'd have it on Dear Demi at 11.0
Race 6
The wheel is beginning to turn with some nice young horses bred in Australia that actually have decent staying blood in them.Usually when assessing this race the question is will they stay the 2500m.As far as Complacent and Savvy Nature are concerned the answer is a strong probably.I'm not opposing these two but the gates are not good and it's a nightmare start if you draw wide.I still may play here with either or both of these but at this stage I'm not committed.
Race 7
If Red Tracer runs out a strong 1600m then she will be mighty hard to beat.There is enough doubt about her at the trip to stop me getting involved at around 2.80 though.Fire Up Fifi,Catkins,Sharnee Rose and Zonza are all credible alternatives if you wanted to risk the favourite
Race 8
Too hard
Race 9
Too Hard
I'll send Tweets through if there is anything.Enjoy the day but go cautiously it's tricky.
In Sydney Rosehill is a Good 3 and any rain there will be very light so expect fast ground.No early bets at Rosehill but a couple of possibilities so if I'm playing I'll send details via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
I can't oppose Hucklebuck and at around evens I think he's accurately priced.
Race 2
May's Dream has her final's day in the Oaks on Thursday.She's the best horse here and is hard to oppose form wise but if I'm backing one at 2.40 I want to know that it's going round "with all guns blazing".That isn't the case when your main objective comes up in five days time.Pass
Race 3
Kelinni was 11.0 earlier in the week but is now into 6.50.I have him on top in a tricky race but he's about the right price now.This is not an easy race to unravel.No bet for me.
Race 4
Bookies have eased Zoustar out to Evens.He's looked very good in Sydney but I'm not sure he's beaten anything that special yet.Waller has been very bullish about him and that resulted in him been sold earlier in the week for plenty.For the old connections the job is done and it's a good one.The new owners will find out if the got there money's worth this afternoon.Found this race hard to price confidently.Pass
Race 5
I think Jet Away is a bit too short here at 3.0.He's entitled to be on top but at around a point longer I think.I can't emphatically rule anything out in this race.I'm not backing anything but if I was given a free bet I'd have it on Dear Demi at 11.0
Race 6
The wheel is beginning to turn with some nice young horses bred in Australia that actually have decent staying blood in them.Usually when assessing this race the question is will they stay the 2500m.As far as Complacent and Savvy Nature are concerned the answer is a strong probably.I'm not opposing these two but the gates are not good and it's a nightmare start if you draw wide.I still may play here with either or both of these but at this stage I'm not committed.
Race 7
If Red Tracer runs out a strong 1600m then she will be mighty hard to beat.There is enough doubt about her at the trip to stop me getting involved at around 2.80 though.Fire Up Fifi,Catkins,Sharnee Rose and Zonza are all credible alternatives if you wanted to risk the favourite
Race 8
Too hard
Race 9
Too Hard
I'll send Tweets through if there is anything.Enjoy the day but go cautiously it's tricky.
Thursday 31 October 2013
Moonee Valley Tonight
Moonee Valley is posted a Dead 4 for this evening's fixture.There are a few dots of rain around at the moment but they hardly amount to anything so I expect an upgrade to a Good 3 sooner rather than later.
A few more possibilities may present as the markets open up but from early markets I've had just the one bet.
Moonee Valley
Race 4
The market is quite open here but I think Use The Lot stands out clearly.The market suggested that he'd still need the run when a close up fourth at Mornington.He travelled really well in that race and only weakened late when lack of condition told.He's trialled since and up to this trip tonight is ready to show his best.He finished off last prep winning in Saturday grade at Caulfield over 2400m.The horse he beat that day Stable Star franked the form subsequently and is now rated 86.Use The Lot races off 70 tonight and that looks lenient for a horse who's still got plenty more to offer.He's the likely leader here and should get to control this race.I have him 3.25 max. here and 4.80 is available generally.
Advised Bet: Use The Lot 1.55 units at 3.50 or better-4.80 is good value
If there is anymore tonight I'll send details via Twitter
A few more possibilities may present as the markets open up but from early markets I've had just the one bet.
Moonee Valley
Race 4
The market is quite open here but I think Use The Lot stands out clearly.The market suggested that he'd still need the run when a close up fourth at Mornington.He travelled really well in that race and only weakened late when lack of condition told.He's trialled since and up to this trip tonight is ready to show his best.He finished off last prep winning in Saturday grade at Caulfield over 2400m.The horse he beat that day Stable Star franked the form subsequently and is now rated 86.Use The Lot races off 70 tonight and that looks lenient for a horse who's still got plenty more to offer.He's the likely leader here and should get to control this race.I have him 3.25 max. here and 4.80 is available generally.
Advised Bet: Use The Lot 1.55 units at 3.50 or better-4.80 is good value
If there is anymore tonight I'll send details via Twitter
October Round Up
A thoroughly miserable month for the blog and it's writer.It's over now so I can concentrate on the next one and hopefully retrieve the losses.Here are last months figures:
UK
Blog Bets advised in 3 races -1 winner (saver)
Stakes 4.60
Returns 2.40
Loss 2.20
Tweets Bets advised in 5 races -No winners
Stakes 3.85
Loss 3.85
UK total for the month LOSS 6.05 units
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 22 races -2 winners
Stakes 27.00
Returns 14.27
Loss 12.73
Tweets Bets advised in 16 races -2 winners
Stakes 17.80
Returns 11.05
Loss 6.75
Australia total for the month LOSS 19.48 units
Overall total for the month LOSS 25.53 Units
OUCH-that hurts!
UK
Blog Bets advised in 3 races -1 winner (saver)
Stakes 4.60
Returns 2.40
Loss 2.20
Tweets Bets advised in 5 races -No winners
Stakes 3.85
Loss 3.85
UK total for the month LOSS 6.05 units
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 22 races -2 winners
Stakes 27.00
Returns 14.27
Loss 12.73
Tweets Bets advised in 16 races -2 winners
Stakes 17.80
Returns 11.05
Loss 6.75
Australia total for the month LOSS 19.48 units
Overall total for the month LOSS 25.53 Units
OUCH-that hurts!
Wednesday 30 October 2013
Update
Apologies for no blog so far this week.I took a bit of time off earlier in the week and had prior commitments yesterday morning.
Another disappointing week last week and it's been a poor month.I'll do a round up of the month later today but it'll be sad reading.
Yesterday's meeting at Bendigo was very hard to call early.Sertorius was the obvious in the Cup but when you consider he'd had heat in his leg the week prior and was getting out to 2400m for the first time you could hardly be confident around 4.0.Today's card at Seymour is also tough to call early and I doubt I'll be betting.
I'll round up the month later and then look forward to the big week ahead
Another disappointing week last week and it's been a poor month.I'll do a round up of the month later today but it'll be sad reading.
Yesterday's meeting at Bendigo was very hard to call early.Sertorius was the obvious in the Cup but when you consider he'd had heat in his leg the week prior and was getting out to 2400m for the first time you could hardly be confident around 4.0.Today's card at Seymour is also tough to call early and I doubt I'll be betting.
I'll round up the month later and then look forward to the big week ahead
Saturday 26 October 2013
Sale Cup Day
Dead 4 posted for Sale for the Cup meeting.No rain around so it may dry out to a Good 3.
Not a lot of obvious value in the supporting races but I think the Cup market is a bit out of line.
Sale
Race 7
Rhythm To Spare was very dominant at Caulfield and is listed as favourite at 2.60.That's too short.I don't think there is much to chose between him,Mouro and Mutual Trust.I'll take a chance on Mutual Trust at the 6.50 on offer against my rating of 5.0.He's a G1 winner in France and showed definite signs of a return to form in the G1 Toorak last time.Critically he'll be up front and the other two main hopes will be giving him a start
Advised Bet: Mutual Trust 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365/6.0 elsewhere
There are a couple of possibilities at Hamilton and Sale if markets open up a bit so if I'm backing anything else I'll send details via Twitter
Not a lot of obvious value in the supporting races but I think the Cup market is a bit out of line.
Sale
Race 7
Rhythm To Spare was very dominant at Caulfield and is listed as favourite at 2.60.That's too short.I don't think there is much to chose between him,Mouro and Mutual Trust.I'll take a chance on Mutual Trust at the 6.50 on offer against my rating of 5.0.He's a G1 winner in France and showed definite signs of a return to form in the G1 Toorak last time.Critically he'll be up front and the other two main hopes will be giving him a start
Advised Bet: Mutual Trust 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365/6.0 elsewhere
There are a couple of possibilities at Hamilton and Sale if markets open up a bit so if I'm backing anything else I'll send details via Twitter
Friday 25 October 2013
Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley & Rosehill
Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley and a Dead 4 is posted.There is a possibility of showers during the afternoon but no more than 1mm is expected if they do arrive so doubt they are going to change things much.May get to a Good 3 if the rain stays away.Rosehill is a Good 3 and a dry day is expected.
I'm having a torrid month and struggling for winners.I think the racing is tough today generally and apart from the Cox Plate which I looked at on Thursday there is no stand out selection in any of the races.I'll be playing mostly on the "lay" side of the exchange today but there is a possibility of a bet in the last race at Rosehill.If I'm playing I'll send the details via Twitter
There are definite possibilities tomorrow though and I'll post a blog tomorrow looking at the Sale Cup meeting.
I'm having a torrid month and struggling for winners.I think the racing is tough today generally and apart from the Cox Plate which I looked at on Thursday there is no stand out selection in any of the races.I'll be playing mostly on the "lay" side of the exchange today but there is a possibility of a bet in the last race at Rosehill.If I'm playing I'll send the details via Twitter
There are definite possibilities tomorrow though and I'll post a blog tomorrow looking at the Sale Cup meeting.
Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley & Canterbury
Manikato Stakes night at Moonee Valley and the track is a Dead 4.Canterbury races also and it's a Good 3.
Samaready was dominant when winning the Moir stakes here four weeks ago.If she reproduces that form she'll be winning again here but at 2.25 she's about the right price.
No bets likely at Canterbury which has a few too many of those dreadful "No Metro Wins"races.
At the Valley there are a couple of interesting races from a betting point of view but at this stage I'm not committed.If I'm playing I'll send the details via Twitter
Samaready was dominant when winning the Moir stakes here four weeks ago.If she reproduces that form she'll be winning again here but at 2.25 she's about the right price.
No bets likely at Canterbury which has a few too many of those dreadful "No Metro Wins"races.
At the Valley there are a couple of interesting races from a betting point of view but at this stage I'm not committed.If I'm playing I'll send the details via Twitter
Thursday 24 October 2013
Cox Plate Preview
Tomorrow's Cox Plate at Moonee Valley is likely to be run on ground no worse than Dead if the current weather predictions are correct.The race has lost some of it's lustre with the scratching earlier this week of the stellar mare Atlantic Jewel due to injury.Instead of two world class horses taking part tomorrow we are left with just the one.
It's A Dundell stands out amongst this field.His demolition jobs in the Rosehill Guineas and The ATC Derby last Autumn marked him out as a colt of very high standing.This Spring he has already claimed the scalp of Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood stakes.He has had a setback with a foot issue but his trainer seems sure he's fit and ready to fire tomorrow.Gate 13 looks no positive initially but the majority of this field race back and McDonald should have no difficulty gliding over to race on pace or at worst just behind it.There are some very nice horses in opposition tomorrow,Puissance De Lune,Fiorente,Green Moon,Happy Trails,Foreteller,Super Cool and Long John are the other main players but they all fall a fair bit behind what It's A Dundeel is capable of if he can run to his best.
I expect him to get the run of the race and win and current quotes of around 4.20/4.25 are substantial "overs" according to my figures.I have him rated at 2.80 absolute max.Would be shorter but for the foot issue that held up his preperation.
Advised Bet: It's A Dundeel 1.80 units at 3.0 or better-take the current quote for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.I think the closer we get to post time the shorter this horse will be
It's A Dundell stands out amongst this field.His demolition jobs in the Rosehill Guineas and The ATC Derby last Autumn marked him out as a colt of very high standing.This Spring he has already claimed the scalp of Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood stakes.He has had a setback with a foot issue but his trainer seems sure he's fit and ready to fire tomorrow.Gate 13 looks no positive initially but the majority of this field race back and McDonald should have no difficulty gliding over to race on pace or at worst just behind it.There are some very nice horses in opposition tomorrow,Puissance De Lune,Fiorente,Green Moon,Happy Trails,Foreteller,Super Cool and Long John are the other main players but they all fall a fair bit behind what It's A Dundeel is capable of if he can run to his best.
I expect him to get the run of the race and win and current quotes of around 4.20/4.25 are substantial "overs" according to my figures.I have him rated at 2.80 absolute max.Would be shorter but for the foot issue that held up his preperation.
Advised Bet: It's A Dundeel 1.80 units at 3.0 or better-take the current quote for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.I think the closer we get to post time the shorter this horse will be
Tuesday 22 October 2013
Geelong Cup Day
Heavy 9 for Geelong Cup and the rain has decimated the field sizes with a huge number of non runners.Kensington up in Sydney is a Good 3.
I'm not backing anything at Geelong today at this stage.I "tweeted" through yesterday that Forgotten Voice was a "lay" at around 2.60 in the Geelong Cup.I managed to get a decent four figure sum matched around 2.56 yesterday into 2.33 after Tandy's scratching.He's currently 2.80 on Befair and will continue to blow out beyond 3.0 I'm sure.Forgotten Voice is a good horse but he's only ever won on good ground.Anyone who thinks 2.70 is a fair price about a nine year old gelding who's come half way round the world and carries top weight on ground it hates needs to have a good look at themselves.I'll be trading out so I don't lose on the race but seriously this horse is a 4.50 chance.May win but terrible price if your betting,tasty if your laying.
There a possibility of a bet in races 6 and 7 at Kensington.I'll tweet details through if I'm playing
I'm not backing anything at Geelong today at this stage.I "tweeted" through yesterday that Forgotten Voice was a "lay" at around 2.60 in the Geelong Cup.I managed to get a decent four figure sum matched around 2.56 yesterday into 2.33 after Tandy's scratching.He's currently 2.80 on Befair and will continue to blow out beyond 3.0 I'm sure.Forgotten Voice is a good horse but he's only ever won on good ground.Anyone who thinks 2.70 is a fair price about a nine year old gelding who's come half way round the world and carries top weight on ground it hates needs to have a good look at themselves.I'll be trading out so I don't lose on the race but seriously this horse is a 4.50 chance.May win but terrible price if your betting,tasty if your laying.
There a possibility of a bet in races 6 and 7 at Kensington.I'll tweet details through if I'm playing
Sunday 20 October 2013
Weekly Round Up
Zonza's win on Wednesday saved the blog from a wipe out last week.Every other horse backed failed to reach a place!Not the kind of form you want to find yourself in right in the middle of the Spring Carnival.There were three other possibles on the short list at Caulfield on Saturday and it was marginal passing on all three.All three won.Over in the UK at Ascot on Saturday I was borderline with both Olympic Glory and Farhh so it was painful to see both win unbacked.During the course of a punting year I would say that on average you get around four heavy days (Saturdays or major midweek days) when nothing at all works for you and all works against you.You also get those that are the opposite and you can do no wrong.The bad day's are tough but inevitable and you have to stay confident and know that one good day easily repairs the damage of a poor one. Just like you can get clusters of winners so you can with the losers.
Anyway, that week is over and there is some real work to do now to get the figures into the black this month.As always I'll be doing my best.Meanwhile here's the break down for last week:
UK
Blog No bets advised
Tweets One bet advised -lost
Total Loss 0.55 units
UK total LOSS 0.55 units
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 7 races-1 winner
Stakes 9.80
Returns 6.77
Loss 3.03
Tweets Bets advised in 1 race-lost
Stakes 0.65
Loss 0.65
Australia total LOSS 3.68 units
Overall for week LOSS 4.23 units
Anyway, that week is over and there is some real work to do now to get the figures into the black this month.As always I'll be doing my best.Meanwhile here's the break down for last week:
UK
Blog No bets advised
Tweets One bet advised -lost
Total Loss 0.55 units
UK total LOSS 0.55 units
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 7 races-1 winner
Stakes 9.80
Returns 6.77
Loss 3.03
Tweets Bets advised in 1 race-lost
Stakes 0.65
Loss 0.65
Australia total LOSS 3.68 units
Overall for week LOSS 4.23 units
Saturday 19 October 2013
Champions Day At Ascot
Fantastic card at ascot today for the third renewal of their Champions Day.No Frankel this year but great racing nevertheless.I was hoping for Good ground but those hopes faded as the week wore on and it's officially Soft this morning.How soft it is will affect what I do here today so there are no early advised bets and anything today will be sent via Twitter.There will not be bets in the first race with Estimate being hard to beat but little value at 3.0.There are possibilities in the other races but I'm not yet committed.
Friday 18 October 2013
Caulfield Cup Day
Caulfield Cup day marks the start of three weeks of full on action in Victoria.Apart from the top class racing at the metropolitan tracks there are the hugely competitive provincial cup's meetings at Seymour,Geelong,Sale and Bendigo.Caulfield is a Dead 4 to begin with but will upgrade to a Good 3 at some point.Randwick in Sydney today is a Good 3 and a warm day there so expect fast ground.
No bets at this stage at Randwick as markets there are very close to my figures but there may be one or two if markets move a bit.Possible interest too in the last at Bendigo and if I'm playing there or at Randwick then I'll "tweet" the details through as early as possible.
Caulfield
Race 4
Famechon did really well last time as he never found a good position and had no choice but to sit wide throughout.He should get a much better run today from a good gate and I expect him to be handy to the pace or tracking it at least.San Diego will find this track more suitable than Moonee Valley last time where he was bailed up on the rail throughout.He's a hope although you could easily argue that Bring Something's effort was the stronger out of that race.I have Famechon rated at 6.00 so happy to be with him at the 7.50 on offer
Advised Bet: Famechon 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.50 on offer now
Race 5
Avoid Lightning can sit behind a hot speed here and will be very strong late.She's already proven around this grade and strikes me as the most likely winner here.I have her at 5.00.Members Joy will be spot on today and she'll be charging home out wide.I have her at 9.00.
Advised Bets: Avoid Lightning 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.0 on offer now
Members Joy 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-12.0 available now-monitor
Race 6
I can't believe they bet 19.00 Conservatorium here earlier in the week.I missed the boat and hate taking much shorter but at 7.50 now this is still the value and I expect it to shorten further.There are negatives around the others here and this one has rock solid form.I have at 6.00
Advised Bet: Conservatorium 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.50 now
Race 8
Honorius is racing in great heart this prep and although he has to give 4kg's to the other major hopes I think he's classy enough to right in the finish.I have him 5.00 absolute maximum.Very keen he'll run a big race.
Advised Bet: Honourius: 1 unit at 5.0 or better-monitor betting here
Race 10
With Forgotten Voice failing to make the field one of the earlier advised bets is voided and there are changes to the prices posted on Thursday.Hawkspur is now rated 4.65,Royal Descent now 5.15 and Silent Achiever now 6.50.
Advised Bets: Hawkspur 1.05 units
Royal Descent 0.95 units
Silent Achiever 0.75 units
Already advised My Quest for Peace 0.15 units EW and Ethiopia 0.15 units EW
Shop around for the best deals here and keep monitoring,Ladbrokes offer Double The Odds probably only for a few bucks but look at whats on offer and get the best you can.
Good luck and have a great day.
No bets at this stage at Randwick as markets there are very close to my figures but there may be one or two if markets move a bit.Possible interest too in the last at Bendigo and if I'm playing there or at Randwick then I'll "tweet" the details through as early as possible.
Caulfield
Race 4
Famechon did really well last time as he never found a good position and had no choice but to sit wide throughout.He should get a much better run today from a good gate and I expect him to be handy to the pace or tracking it at least.San Diego will find this track more suitable than Moonee Valley last time where he was bailed up on the rail throughout.He's a hope although you could easily argue that Bring Something's effort was the stronger out of that race.I have Famechon rated at 6.00 so happy to be with him at the 7.50 on offer
Advised Bet: Famechon 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.50 on offer now
Race 5
Avoid Lightning can sit behind a hot speed here and will be very strong late.She's already proven around this grade and strikes me as the most likely winner here.I have her at 5.00.Members Joy will be spot on today and she'll be charging home out wide.I have her at 9.00.
Advised Bets: Avoid Lightning 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.0 on offer now
Members Joy 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-12.0 available now-monitor
Race 6
I can't believe they bet 19.00 Conservatorium here earlier in the week.I missed the boat and hate taking much shorter but at 7.50 now this is still the value and I expect it to shorten further.There are negatives around the others here and this one has rock solid form.I have at 6.00
Advised Bet: Conservatorium 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.50 now
Race 8
Honorius is racing in great heart this prep and although he has to give 4kg's to the other major hopes I think he's classy enough to right in the finish.I have him 5.00 absolute maximum.Very keen he'll run a big race.
Advised Bet: Honourius: 1 unit at 5.0 or better-monitor betting here
Race 10
With Forgotten Voice failing to make the field one of the earlier advised bets is voided and there are changes to the prices posted on Thursday.Hawkspur is now rated 4.65,Royal Descent now 5.15 and Silent Achiever now 6.50.
Advised Bets: Hawkspur 1.05 units
Royal Descent 0.95 units
Silent Achiever 0.75 units
Already advised My Quest for Peace 0.15 units EW and Ethiopia 0.15 units EW
Shop around for the best deals here and keep monitoring,Ladbrokes offer Double The Odds probably only for a few bucks but look at whats on offer and get the best you can.
Good luck and have a great day.
Thursday 17 October 2013
Caulfield Cup Amendment
Those of you who follow regularly will know that I always try to be very thorough but unfortunately I've cocked up the Caulfield Cup listings and I am very grateful to TK @ Timmyk23 on twitter for highlighting it quickly.
Forgotten Voice is not a starter in the Cup as of now but is first emergency.
Everyone screws up sometimes and I apologise.
I'm happy with the prices I've done though and I know TK though my rating of Dandino wrong.He's a horse I've always liked and he's been a real warrior but I think he'll find it tough here and I think his current quotes around 10.0 are far too short
Forgotten Voice is not a starter in the Cup as of now but is first emergency.
Everyone screws up sometimes and I apologise.
I'm happy with the prices I've done though and I know TK though my rating of Dandino wrong.He's a horse I've always liked and he's been a real warrior but I think he'll find it tough here and I think his current quotes around 10.0 are far too short
Caulfield Cup Rated Prices & Comments
With the weather forecast looking good and no rain of any consequence on the horizon it seems safe to go ahead and put these prices up.It is Melbourne though remember and if the weather does turn then I will be making changes to these.These prices are based on a Good 3 track which if no rain arrives is what we will have come late Saturday afternoon.
Hawkspur 5.00
Royal Decent 5.50
Silent Achiever 7.00
Fawkner 13.0
Forgotten Voice 15.0
Ethiopia 21.00
Jet Away 21.00
My Quest For Pce.21.00
Dandino 26.00
Glencaddam G. 51.00
Julienas 51.00
Mr.Moet 66.00
Manighar 66.00
Kelinni 66.00
Moriarty 66.00
Waldpark 81.00
Mister O'Ceirin 101.00
Sneak a Peek 101.00
Dear Demi 101.00
Tuscan Fire 151.00
Oasis Bloom 151.00
Sneak a Peek and Oasis Bloom are both reserves and require horses above them to drop out to gain a start.
I would have Hawkspur shorter here were it not for the awkward gate which does have the potential to make things difficult although he normally does settle back anyway.I'm confident that Hawkspur.Royal Decent and Silent Achiever stand out as the three major hopes and my figures make it 1.90 about one of the three coming out on top.If your looking for value outside these three then My Quest for Peace, Ethiopia and the UK raider Forgotten Voice look good value.Don't be put off Forgotten Voice because he is also a Hurdler.He's twice won ultra competitive high grade handicaps at Royal Ascot.He also has an outstanding trainer,a world class jockey and he should get a sweet run from a good gate.
There is no point rushing in to back anything that's short yet.Bookies will be offering specials galore on this and prices will generally get better closer to post time.My Quest For Peace and Forgotten Voice have both trimmed up this afternoon though so I doubt they will get much better.
Advised Bets: My Quest for Peace 0.15 units EW at 34.0 with Sportsbet/IAS
Forgotten Voice 0.15 units EW at 41.0 with Sportsbet/IAS
Ethiopia 0.15 units EW at 41.0 with Ladbrokes,Luxbet,Bet 365
I'll have a look at a strategy for the others later.
Back tomorrow
Hawkspur 5.00
Royal Decent 5.50
Silent Achiever 7.00
Fawkner 13.0
Forgotten Voice 15.0
Ethiopia 21.00
Jet Away 21.00
My Quest For Pce.21.00
Dandino 26.00
Glencaddam G. 51.00
Julienas 51.00
Mr.Moet 66.00
Manighar 66.00
Kelinni 66.00
Moriarty 66.00
Waldpark 81.00
Mister O'Ceirin 101.00
Sneak a Peek 101.00
Dear Demi 101.00
Tuscan Fire 151.00
Oasis Bloom 151.00
Sneak a Peek and Oasis Bloom are both reserves and require horses above them to drop out to gain a start.
I would have Hawkspur shorter here were it not for the awkward gate which does have the potential to make things difficult although he normally does settle back anyway.I'm confident that Hawkspur.Royal Decent and Silent Achiever stand out as the three major hopes and my figures make it 1.90 about one of the three coming out on top.If your looking for value outside these three then My Quest for Peace, Ethiopia and the UK raider Forgotten Voice look good value.Don't be put off Forgotten Voice because he is also a Hurdler.He's twice won ultra competitive high grade handicaps at Royal Ascot.He also has an outstanding trainer,a world class jockey and he should get a sweet run from a good gate.
There is no point rushing in to back anything that's short yet.Bookies will be offering specials galore on this and prices will generally get better closer to post time.My Quest For Peace and Forgotten Voice have both trimmed up this afternoon though so I doubt they will get much better.
Advised Bets: My Quest for Peace 0.15 units EW at 34.0 with Sportsbet/IAS
Forgotten Voice 0.15 units EW at 41.0 with Sportsbet/IAS
Ethiopia 0.15 units EW at 41.0 with Ladbrokes,Luxbet,Bet 365
I'll have a look at a strategy for the others later.
Back tomorrow
Tuesday 15 October 2013
1000 Guineas Day at Caulfield and Warwick Farm
1000 Guineas day at Caulfield and the track is rated a Dead 4 but it's warm and very windy so that will soon upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is dry and warm and is a Good 3.How big a factor the wind is at Caulfield and whether it suits leaders or closers is going to be interesting.
There are no early bets at Warwick Farm and I can't say I'm too fussed about backing anything there today.If markets change and do get involved I'll send details via Twitter.
Caulfield
Race 1
This is a pin job.Nothing surprises here.
Race 2
I have Junoob on top here but thought the early quotes around 4.0 were about right.3.30 now looks skinny.Thought Corregio was too short too.Mr Jazz has a hope is he can run the trip but it's too big an "if" to have me interested in him.Not backing anything here.
Race 3
Pace is a questionable here.Specter was terrific on his reappearance run.He's entitled to be favourite and draws well to be handy.Misty Eyes looks well treated on a mark of 78.When he won in Adelaide in May he gave Lady Dynamo 1.5kg's and beat her 0.5 length.She's an 85 rater now so he's nicely treated.I sent him through as an early bet on Twitter this morning.Hopefully he can be handier from a decent gateMay decide to back or save on Specter too here-will advise later
Advised Bet: Misty Eyes 0.85 units at 6.50 or better.7.50 with Sportingbet/Centrebet looks good value.Centrebet have a money back deal if you are beaten by the fav.May be more here via Twitter later.
Race 4
Rhythm To Spare was awful last time.If he finds his form again he's a live chance but he does have an awkward gate.Hosting is an improving horse and he's on top here.Gate 3 looks decent at first but I am worried about him getting bailed up on the rail.I've got him at 4.0 here so 4.60 Bet 365 looks tempting as I doubt he'll get much bigger.I haven't had a bet yet-could only back Hosting but but haven't committed yet.
Race 5
Electric Fusion is the obvious and sat around 5.50 most of the morning but has now been backed into 5.0 (still 5.25 with Bet 365).I'm bemused why they have taken the blinkers off him today.He settled well last time and did everything right.This yard has me foxed on plenty off occasions and is very tricky to read-confused!Ominous pulled like crazy on his Aussie debut and he'll be a good stayer if he learns to settle-gets a noseroll to help him today.
Race 6
Guelph is hard to oppose and also hard to back at 1.40.Gregers and May's dream the obvious alternatives.Not betting here
Race 7
Zonza seems a stand out to me.Her run behind Moriarty in Sydney last May looks outstanding form here.She's won her comeback race in N.Z. She goes forward and probably gets to control this race.I have her 3.0 max here but she is 4.40 and bigger the totes so I'm worried there is a negative that I am unaware of.I've had something at 4.40 and will monitor the betting here
Advised Bet: Zonza 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 4.40 for 30% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the rest
Race 8
Good sprint to finish but I can't really find an angle in here.Betting looks fairly accurate.Not betting here
There are no early bets at Warwick Farm and I can't say I'm too fussed about backing anything there today.If markets change and do get involved I'll send details via Twitter.
Caulfield
Race 1
This is a pin job.Nothing surprises here.
Race 2
I have Junoob on top here but thought the early quotes around 4.0 were about right.3.30 now looks skinny.Thought Corregio was too short too.Mr Jazz has a hope is he can run the trip but it's too big an "if" to have me interested in him.Not backing anything here.
Race 3
Pace is a questionable here.Specter was terrific on his reappearance run.He's entitled to be favourite and draws well to be handy.Misty Eyes looks well treated on a mark of 78.When he won in Adelaide in May he gave Lady Dynamo 1.5kg's and beat her 0.5 length.She's an 85 rater now so he's nicely treated.I sent him through as an early bet on Twitter this morning.Hopefully he can be handier from a decent gateMay decide to back or save on Specter too here-will advise later
Advised Bet: Misty Eyes 0.85 units at 6.50 or better.7.50 with Sportingbet/Centrebet looks good value.Centrebet have a money back deal if you are beaten by the fav.May be more here via Twitter later.
Race 4
Rhythm To Spare was awful last time.If he finds his form again he's a live chance but he does have an awkward gate.Hosting is an improving horse and he's on top here.Gate 3 looks decent at first but I am worried about him getting bailed up on the rail.I've got him at 4.0 here so 4.60 Bet 365 looks tempting as I doubt he'll get much bigger.I haven't had a bet yet-could only back Hosting but but haven't committed yet.
Race 5
Electric Fusion is the obvious and sat around 5.50 most of the morning but has now been backed into 5.0 (still 5.25 with Bet 365).I'm bemused why they have taken the blinkers off him today.He settled well last time and did everything right.This yard has me foxed on plenty off occasions and is very tricky to read-confused!Ominous pulled like crazy on his Aussie debut and he'll be a good stayer if he learns to settle-gets a noseroll to help him today.
Race 6
Guelph is hard to oppose and also hard to back at 1.40.Gregers and May's dream the obvious alternatives.Not betting here
Race 7
Zonza seems a stand out to me.Her run behind Moriarty in Sydney last May looks outstanding form here.She's won her comeback race in N.Z. She goes forward and probably gets to control this race.I have her 3.0 max here but she is 4.40 and bigger the totes so I'm worried there is a negative that I am unaware of.I've had something at 4.40 and will monitor the betting here
Advised Bet: Zonza 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 4.40 for 30% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the rest
Race 8
Good sprint to finish but I can't really find an angle in here.Betting looks fairly accurate.Not betting here
Monday 14 October 2013
Weekly Round Up
Not a terrible week but a losing one nevertheless.
Here's the breakdown for the week;
UK
Blog Bets advised in 1 race - No winners
Stakes 1.60
Loss 1.60 units
Tweets None last week
UK LOSS on week 1.60 units
Australia
Blog bets advised in 4 races -No winners
Stakes 5.0
returns Nil
Loss 5.0 units
Tweets bets advised in 7 races-2 winners
Stakes 7.50
Returns 12.0
Profit 4.50 units
Australia LOSS on week 0.50 units
Overall total for the week LOSS 2.40 units
Very erratic so far this month at around the halfway stage and a bit of work to do to drag the month back into the black.
I tweeted a small bet through this morning (lost) and that's not in these figures but will be included in next weeks round up.
Big week coming up with Caulfield tomorrow (1000 Guineas day) and Saturday (Caulfield Cup day) plus Champions Day at Ascot in the UK.
Back Tomorrow
Here's the breakdown for the week;
UK
Blog Bets advised in 1 race - No winners
Stakes 1.60
Loss 1.60 units
Tweets None last week
UK LOSS on week 1.60 units
Australia
Blog bets advised in 4 races -No winners
Stakes 5.0
returns Nil
Loss 5.0 units
Tweets bets advised in 7 races-2 winners
Stakes 7.50
Returns 12.0
Profit 4.50 units
Australia LOSS on week 0.50 units
Overall total for the week LOSS 2.40 units
Very erratic so far this month at around the halfway stage and a bit of work to do to drag the month back into the black.
I tweeted a small bet through this morning (lost) and that's not in these figures but will be included in next weeks round up.
Big week coming up with Caulfield tomorrow (1000 Guineas day) and Saturday (Caulfield Cup day) plus Champions Day at Ascot in the UK.
Back Tomorrow
Saturday 12 October 2013
Cranbourne Cup Day
Cranbourne Cup day and a really good day's racing.Posted Good 3 but plenty of rain on the radar so unsure exactly what ground we'll be dealing with.There will definitely be plenty of plays today but whether they are bets or lays will depend on the state of the ground and how these markets open up.
Some of these provincial markets have been erratic to say least since Betfair stopped the trading restrictions on Victorian racing at the start of July.Lots of market manipulation,spoofing and some head scratching plays.Providing you step back from it and stay objective there are really good opportunities but you do have to get into the market steadily and manage your exposure.The big UK bookies control the Aussie market now and who knows who is compressing the Betfair price on many of these favourites.
I'll be sending "Tweets" if I'm backing any thing and I'll try and get them out as early as possible but these provincial markets don't really get firing until the last 5/10 mins so they may be a little closer to jump time than is usually the case
Some of these provincial markets have been erratic to say least since Betfair stopped the trading restrictions on Victorian racing at the start of July.Lots of market manipulation,spoofing and some head scratching plays.Providing you step back from it and stay objective there are really good opportunities but you do have to get into the market steadily and manage your exposure.The big UK bookies control the Aussie market now and who knows who is compressing the Betfair price on many of these favourites.
I'll be sending "Tweets" if I'm backing any thing and I'll try and get them out as early as possible but these provincial markets don't really get firing until the last 5/10 mins so they may be a little closer to jump time than is usually the case
Cesarewitch,Dewhurst,Middle Park at Newmarket plus York
Future Champions Day at Newmarket with the Cesarewitch the only handicap on an excellent day.Good competitive card at York too.Overnight rain has complicated things at Newmarket and it's now Good to Soft.York is Good with Good to Soft patches.
At the moment I am only betting in the Cesarewitch.
There are other possibilities today and further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Newmarket
Race 4
34 runners over 18 furlongs so it's a challenging race but I quite hopeful here taking 3 against the field.Pallasator looks like he's been aimed at this and he's a massive horse who still has plenty more to offer.Domination continues to improve both on the flat and over hurdles.He won the Cesarewitch trial a year ago of a mark of 77 but has improved a lot since then and even off 95 is a serious hope here.Brockwell has run well this season without winning including a solid effort in the trial race 3 weeks ago after a few weeks off.
Advised Bets: Pallasator 0.70 units at 7.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Domination 0.55 units at 9.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Brockwell 0.35 units at 16.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
At the moment I am only betting in the Cesarewitch.
There are other possibilities today and further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Newmarket
Race 4
34 runners over 18 furlongs so it's a challenging race but I quite hopeful here taking 3 against the field.Pallasator looks like he's been aimed at this and he's a massive horse who still has plenty more to offer.Domination continues to improve both on the flat and over hurdles.He won the Cesarewitch trial a year ago of a mark of 77 but has improved a lot since then and even off 95 is a serious hope here.Brockwell has run well this season without winning including a solid effort in the trial race 3 weeks ago after a few weeks off.
Advised Bets: Pallasator 0.70 units at 7.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Domination 0.55 units at 9.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Brockwell 0.35 units at 16.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Friday 11 October 2013
Guineas at Caulfield and Spring Champion at Randwick
I was sick yesterday so apologies for no blog.I'm short of time so just the bets today.
Fine and sunny at both Caulfield (Dead 4-maybe an upgrade) and Randwick ( Good 3-only gets quicker).
There are more possibilities later as markets open up and I had a look at track patterns (if any!).For now here are the definite bets
Caulfield
Race 4 Possible bet on Kuroshio but will confirm via Twitter later
Race 5
Advised Bet; Shamal Wind 1.90 units at 2.80 or better-3.10 is best now and is ok but may trade around 3.30 on Betfair at some point
Race 7 Possible bet on It Is Written but will confirm via twitter later
Race 9
Advised Bet; Mouro 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 10 Possible Bet on Long John but will confirm later via Twitter
Randwick
Race 1
Advised Bet: Entirely Platinum 0.75 at 7.0 or better-take the 10.0 on offer now for 505 of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Other possibilities at Randwick will be sent via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
Fine and sunny at both Caulfield (Dead 4-maybe an upgrade) and Randwick ( Good 3-only gets quicker).
There are more possibilities later as markets open up and I had a look at track patterns (if any!).For now here are the definite bets
Caulfield
Race 4 Possible bet on Kuroshio but will confirm via Twitter later
Race 5
Advised Bet; Shamal Wind 1.90 units at 2.80 or better-3.10 is best now and is ok but may trade around 3.30 on Betfair at some point
Race 7 Possible bet on It Is Written but will confirm via twitter later
Race 9
Advised Bet; Mouro 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 10 Possible Bet on Long John but will confirm later via Twitter
Randwick
Race 1
Advised Bet: Entirely Platinum 0.75 at 7.0 or better-take the 10.0 on offer now for 505 of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Other possibilities at Randwick will be sent via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
Wednesday 9 October 2013
Ballarat Today
These Thursday fixtures at Ballarat can be a bit hit and miss.I believe the track is closing down after the Ballarat cup meeting so they can do some remedial work on it.It would be good if they could begin using the "outer" track when the work is finished.They only seem to use the "inner" track nowadays which is tighter and nothing like as big..Anyway some of the meetings they have had there over the last couple of years have been utterly dreadful.The midweek meeting held there last week (on a Wednesday) was absolute rubbish and run on a glue pot surface.
The harsh reality is that there are far too many racecourses,racehorses,trainers etc.The whole thing need rationalising and updating.I have no idea why we have to race 7 days a week in Victoria and NSW.Surely the Trots and the Dogs could have center stage a couple of days a week.Alternatively different states could have there prime midweek day on different days of the week.
Today's meeting is actually OK.There are some interesting maidens and the handicaps are reasonably easy to get a handle on.
I'm struggling so far this month so I need to lift my game a bit.I'm interested in two today at this stage and a couple more if markets lean too heavily towards the obvious favourites and create value elsewhere.At the moment markets are at 135% or more so there no point in going in there early.Races 1 and 6 are likely bets though so if your intested look out for "tweets 10/15 mins before jump time
The harsh reality is that there are far too many racecourses,racehorses,trainers etc.The whole thing need rationalising and updating.I have no idea why we have to race 7 days a week in Victoria and NSW.Surely the Trots and the Dogs could have center stage a couple of days a week.Alternatively different states could have there prime midweek day on different days of the week.
Today's meeting is actually OK.There are some interesting maidens and the handicaps are reasonably easy to get a handle on.
I'm struggling so far this month so I need to lift my game a bit.I'm interested in two today at this stage and a couple more if markets lean too heavily towards the obvious favourites and create value elsewhere.At the moment markets are at 135% or more so there no point in going in there early.Races 1 and 6 are likely bets though so if your intested look out for "tweets 10/15 mins before jump time
Tuesday 8 October 2013
Mornigton & Warwick Farm Today
Midweek metro meeting at Mornington and Warwick Farm.Both are now a Good 3 and warm dry conditions at both venues.
Tricky day to find ones I want to back in morning markets but there is one I've backed early
Mornigton
Race 6
I thought that this chiefly concerned Heyday and Perfect Offering.Heyday is promising and she did well to finish as close as she did last time after being knocked sideways approaching the turn after being stuck in traffic most of the run.I have her favourite here at 3.0 and they bet 4.40 earlier but Sportingbet/Centrebet are still 3.90 which is still good value on my figures.Perfect Offering has strong form for a race like this but so far she's had 15 goes and only won her maiden.The market has her favourite at 3.0 out from 2.60 but I'd much rather be with the lightly raced and progressive Heyday.
Advised Bet: Heyday 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.90 now
There are possibilities if markets change and if I'm backing anything else I'll send via Twitter a few minutes before jump time
Tricky day to find ones I want to back in morning markets but there is one I've backed early
Mornigton
Race 6
I thought that this chiefly concerned Heyday and Perfect Offering.Heyday is promising and she did well to finish as close as she did last time after being knocked sideways approaching the turn after being stuck in traffic most of the run.I have her favourite here at 3.0 and they bet 4.40 earlier but Sportingbet/Centrebet are still 3.90 which is still good value on my figures.Perfect Offering has strong form for a race like this but so far she's had 15 goes and only won her maiden.The market has her favourite at 3.0 out from 2.60 but I'd much rather be with the lightly raced and progressive Heyday.
Advised Bet: Heyday 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.90 now
There are possibilities if markets change and if I'm backing anything else I'll send via Twitter a few minutes before jump time
Monday 7 October 2013
Weekly Round Up
Treve's win in yesterday's 'Arc in Paris was as stunning a performance as I can remember in that race since Dancing Brave's breathtaking win back in 1986.She didn't settle in the early stages of the race and had to travel wide throughout but from the moment she cruised up on the home turn it was simply a question of by how far she would win.
Punting wise it's been a tough week despite getting 40.0 plus odds on Happy Trails in the Turnbull last Saturday which was the only bright spot in a frustrating an annoying week.The blog in total finished 4.8 units down on the week.The drought in winners over in the UK continues although there weren't many bets last week.
I had one of those nightmare Betfair cock ups on Tuesday when the trading software froze and I was left with a four figure liability in a 4 runner -58 grade race at Kilmore.I have strict rules about not leaving myself exposed late but somehow let my guard down this time and of course got caned.It's happened before but not for a very long time and I was murderous with myself afterwards.
Hoping and expecting a better week ahead.
Punting wise it's been a tough week despite getting 40.0 plus odds on Happy Trails in the Turnbull last Saturday which was the only bright spot in a frustrating an annoying week.The blog in total finished 4.8 units down on the week.The drought in winners over in the UK continues although there weren't many bets last week.
I had one of those nightmare Betfair cock ups on Tuesday when the trading software froze and I was left with a four figure liability in a 4 runner -58 grade race at Kilmore.I have strict rules about not leaving myself exposed late but somehow let my guard down this time and of course got caned.It's happened before but not for a very long time and I was murderous with myself afterwards.
Hoping and expecting a better week ahead.
Sunday 6 October 2013
Swan Hill and Kensington Today
After a full on weekend we now public holiday racing at Kensington and a standard country meeting at Swan Hill.I've fallen a bit behind due to the heavy schedule and I haven't finished the form for today's meetings yet.There are definite possibilities but if you are interested in them you will have to monitor Twitter.If I'm playing I'll get them out at least 10/15 mins. before jump time.
'Arc Day at Longchamp
Soft ground at Longchamp for French racing's showpiece.
The fields at Longchamp three weeks ago for the 'Arc trials were the strongest I can remember so it's disappointing to report that today's big day seems a bit less strong overall than is usual.The 'Arc is a very good renewal though and the best field assembled for any race run so far this year worldwide.
Not many races today that I really want to have a bet in.The 2-y-o races look very open and it's not easy lining the form up.The 'Abbaye looks far too complex and the 'Opera looks a very tricky F&M's event.The Foret looks Moonlight Cloud's race but she'll be around 1.50/1.60 in Paris and the 1.83 on offer with the bookies looks to big but I don't want to back at odds on.I may back Tac De Boistron in the Cadran.He bolted in last time and he still could have a bit more improvement in him.His half brother is a 3 mile chaser so hopefully he can stay the trip.If I'm backing him I'll send a message via Twitter.So at this stage only one bet
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe
Two runners stand out from the rest the Japanese Orfevre and the French filly Treve.I've tried to be as objective as possible with Orfevre and have played the devil's advocate in finding all the reasons why he won't win but he's the most talented horse around anywhere at the moment and the good draw is the real cincher for me.Last year he was enormous getting to the front in a few bounds from a poor position and it's still hard to believe he got beat so majestically did he round them up and go clear.He's quirky but he is brilliant and wet ground is fine for him.
Treve is an outstanding filly and without Orfevre in the race I would back her to overcome the bad draw.But the fact is that he will have the position turning and she will have to outsprint him and I doubt she can.If it all goes wrong again for the Japanese runner then I think the race will be hers.
My figures are Orfevre 2.80 ,Treve 4.80.Orfevre is 3.45 with Betfair and 3.50 with Ladbrokes and that will not last.Treve is 6.0 with Ladbrokes and 5.80 with Betfair.Expect these two to be very strong on the French tote Orfevre particularly so
Advised Bet: Orfevre 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-take the 3.50 now-save on Treve 0.40 units at 5.0 or better- take the 6.0 now.
The fields at Longchamp three weeks ago for the 'Arc trials were the strongest I can remember so it's disappointing to report that today's big day seems a bit less strong overall than is usual.The 'Arc is a very good renewal though and the best field assembled for any race run so far this year worldwide.
Not many races today that I really want to have a bet in.The 2-y-o races look very open and it's not easy lining the form up.The 'Abbaye looks far too complex and the 'Opera looks a very tricky F&M's event.The Foret looks Moonlight Cloud's race but she'll be around 1.50/1.60 in Paris and the 1.83 on offer with the bookies looks to big but I don't want to back at odds on.I may back Tac De Boistron in the Cadran.He bolted in last time and he still could have a bit more improvement in him.His half brother is a 3 mile chaser so hopefully he can stay the trip.If I'm backing him I'll send a message via Twitter.So at this stage only one bet
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe
Two runners stand out from the rest the Japanese Orfevre and the French filly Treve.I've tried to be as objective as possible with Orfevre and have played the devil's advocate in finding all the reasons why he won't win but he's the most talented horse around anywhere at the moment and the good draw is the real cincher for me.Last year he was enormous getting to the front in a few bounds from a poor position and it's still hard to believe he got beat so majestically did he round them up and go clear.He's quirky but he is brilliant and wet ground is fine for him.
Treve is an outstanding filly and without Orfevre in the race I would back her to overcome the bad draw.But the fact is that he will have the position turning and she will have to outsprint him and I doubt she can.If it all goes wrong again for the Japanese runner then I think the race will be hers.
My figures are Orfevre 2.80 ,Treve 4.80.Orfevre is 3.45 with Betfair and 3.50 with Ladbrokes and that will not last.Treve is 6.0 with Ladbrokes and 5.80 with Betfair.Expect these two to be very strong on the French tote Orfevre particularly so
Advised Bet: Orfevre 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-take the 3.50 now-save on Treve 0.40 units at 5.0 or better- take the 6.0 now.
Saturday 5 October 2013
Saturday's UK and French Racing
Very good cards at Ascot (soft) ,Newmarket ( Good to Firm) Redcar (Good to Firm) and Longchamp (Soft).It's dry everywhere so the ground will quicken up a bit everywhere.
I've got a short list of possibilities today but with so much on a the moment I am taking time out for a couple of hours to have a nap.My brain's a bit fried with racing going on everywhere but it's great racing this weekend so you have to do your very best.
There is one definite bet at the moment but I'm sure there will be more and they will go out via Twitter as early as possible.
Ascot
Race 1
Doc Hay won this race last year.He has ideal conditions to follow up again this year,a likely strong pace and cut in the ground.The first time hood seemed to galvanise him back to form last time and if he gets the break here he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Doc Hay 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
I've got a short list of possibilities today but with so much on a the moment I am taking time out for a couple of hours to have a nap.My brain's a bit fried with racing going on everywhere but it's great racing this weekend so you have to do your very best.
There is one definite bet at the moment but I'm sure there will be more and they will go out via Twitter as early as possible.
Ascot
Race 1
Doc Hay won this race last year.He has ideal conditions to follow up again this year,a likely strong pace and cut in the ground.The first time hood seemed to galvanise him back to form last time and if he gets the break here he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Doc Hay 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
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