Flemington is posted a Dead 4 but will quickly upgrade to a Good 3.There is a slight chance of some rain but it's likely to be light if it does come.Sydney horses have had a good Carnival so far and whilst that trend may continue there is the likelihood that they may be overbet over the remaining couple of days.There is evidence of this in some of the early quotes around today.
Race 1
Marmelo is into 2.50 and that looks a bit thin on what has been achieved so far.Mambo Lady is the leader here and she may get away with a cosy run up front.I'd be more interested in backing her at odds than Marmelo at 2.50 but haven't committed to anything at this stage.
Race 2
There is no obvious pace in this race.That makes Multilateral a poor proposition at the 3.25 top quote currently on offer.He's entitled to be favourite but 3.25 is very skinny.There are plenty of chances in this race but the pace (lack of) makes it difficult to price up with confidence.Ominous is a bit of a nutter but if he ever settles early in a race he'll take some beating.The cross over noseband is tried today and if it works 20.0 is a very generous quote.Others with mayne more to offer than they have already shown are Canonized,Name The Day,Mintaro,Red Inca and Slade De Cerisy
Race 3
This is a very tricky race and it's easy to pass here
Race 4
Dystopia was 6.0 in early betting but with the scratchings reducing that price to around 4.70 she really only been a marginal firmer at around the current 4.40.She was unlucky in this race last year having been held up for 100m and just failed to catch Honey Flower.I had a decent bet on her that day.She's had a similar preparation as last year and she is definitely the top choice here.If anything I think this race is a tad harder this year and I don't think there is much fat in her price at the moment.She'll settle midfield and with the tendency to bunch up down the straight getting a run is potential negative again.I'd play at around 5.0 but I think that's unlikely at this stage
Race 5
This race is for Grey horses only.Members Joy is favourite at around 3.80.She's drawn wide and will probable go back.Her mark of 84 is pretty generous really and she 's a hope but I'm not entirely convinced that 1400m is her go.Too short I think.Footy Fan is next best in the market at 4.20 which is insanely short in my opinion although I know a couple of shrewd judges fancy it.It got beat in a much weaker race than this up in Sydney last time and I've already layed it at early quotes-should be at least 9.0.Freshwater Storm bolted in both starts this prep.The latest was in the Grey's race at Caulfield.He's flying and he should be favourite here but is 6.50 and will probably be better closer to post time.Black Cash was posted wide last time and Misty Eyes will be fitter-both are hopes
Race 6
Kirramosa well backed this morning and into 2.70 which is far too short.If ever there was a race to give the elbow to from a punting angle it's this one.It's a very,very moderate race with all of them currently rated <100 and most unlikely ever to reach that figure
Race 7
Gallatin at 2.20 is very short coming off a hard fought win in a Warwick Farm maiden.I don't like this race betting wise.
Race 8
If the good Snitzerland turns up here then this should be her's for the taking.It's a big "if' though after the way she dropped away tamely last time.That was at G1 level though and maybe the ground was a bit too moist for her there.Pass
Race 9
I really like Pro Tour but rattling fast ground is an unknown for him.If it rained and went a genuine Dead I'd start getting keener.If I'm playing here or anywhere else this afternoon I'll send details via twitter
Advised Bet: Freshwater Storm 1 unit at 5.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
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