I didn't send any bets through last week either on the blog or through Twitter.Family issues got in the way of everything last week and once I have my routine and equilibrium knocked around I prefer not to get too involved.I was marginal on two horses to back and passed on both and both won (Magnapal on Wednesday and Kiss Me Ketut on Saturday).I took a few on on the "lay" side of the exchange and came out on the wrong side there so all in all a week best forgotten about.
There is no point in been involved in this game if you don't have the ability to put disappointments behind you quickly and realise that for every time you get a week when everything seems to conspire against you you'll get one or more just the opposite provided that you are thorough,logical and persistent.
I promised a blog about using Betfair for laying and some techniques to help get the profit levels up so here it is.
Laying For Profit On Betfair
Anyone looking to operate full time or part time as a pro punter really does have to seriously consider the options offered by being able to lay horses on Betfair.
The good news is that it offers the opportunity for sound, solid plays everyday and keeps you involved when you aren't able to find anything you want to back.
The bad news is that you'll be playing in shark infested waters and your going to have to be very good and very much on top of your subject to make it work profitably for you.
It's hard to turn your mindset around from being a backer into a layer and I know some very smart operators who simply cannot adjust.It's not for everyone but if you are doing the form thoroughly every day you are passing up a chance to do really well out of races that you are not interested in backing in.
Generally if I'm backing horses I want races that I can find a definite "shape" to.Two to four realistic chances taking up the vast majority of the book.Because I only think it's possible to be completely on top of the form if you narrow things down and specialize I concentrate on Victoria and Sydney Metro.That throws up 300/ 400 bets a year or 6 to 8 a week on average.That works out as a bet in only around 10% of the races and that makes it hard to stay focused and not get bored with the other 90%.Looking for "lay' opportunities in those other races keeps you alert and involved.
Firstly each day I highlight the races that it's possible I want to back one in.Those races I form a full market on based on my opinion.If I'm confident with my odds and I can get sufficient overs I'll bet.
With the other races I decide if there exists enough information for me to get some kind of a handle on it without necessarily fully pricing it up.
Most maidens I avoid because the market in these races is strongly influenced by what is private and not public knowledge.Half the runners may be unraced and I simply don't know how good they are.The runners in these races that you feel confident opposing are often too hard to lay without offering overs as others are looking to get them too.
With the handicaps and the non maidens I first sort the runners into order.Favourite at the top and the rag at the bottom.Then I block them into groups of 4.0 chances or less,8.0 chances or less,15.0 chances or less,26.0 chances or less and then finally the others.This gives me enough to work with in highlighting the ones that open up serious unders.
Generally it's the opposite of what I'm looking for when backing.When laying I want races that are either complex and tricky and the opening market doesn't acknowledge that fact sufficiently enough or races where the objectively I think the market is out of line with my assessment.
Ultimately you will stand or fall depending on your in depth knowledge of the racing in whatever location you choose to specialize in.If you are working alone and you want to take on races in every state each day I think you will struggle.In short you have to have a really strong grasp of what is going on in the theatre you are operating in.
If you are starting out trying to get a handle on 'laying" I would suggest keeping it as simple as possible to begin with.Start by only laying horses you think are big unders and that you really don't fancy at all.Horses you think should be double figure odds and you can get a lay bet matched at 8.0 or less.Fix a definite liability that is absolutely no more than 5% of your bank.Lay it as early in betting as you can as if your analysis is sound it should generally (but will not always) ease as the market develops.Don't chase the price out to get matched at any odds.You must know from the outset how high you are prepared to go.If others are offering better than your high then leave well alone.Don't worry at all about missing one or two as there are enough opportunities and another will soon come along.
When you've got used to doing it say, after a hundred or so lay bets have a look at your results.If you are doing ok look at how you might have done a little better maybe by being a bit more aggressive not just laying the ones you really don't like but also those you feel are definite "unders' even though it wouldn't surprise you if they won.If after a hundred lay bets your losing then ask yourself objectively if you've had a poor run or is your analysis flawed.How you answer that will determine what you do next.If your analysis is not good enough you have no hope of things working in you favour.100 bets isn't a big enough sample to determine anything with any certainty but you'll have a general idea if you can or if you cannot make it work for you
In an average week I probably "lay" around 40 horses.I lay them to lose a fixed amount irrespective of if they are odds on or in double figures.The average price is around 4.0.
The thing I really must stress is money management.It really never is acceptable to exceed you fixed liability.You have already determined what you are prepared to lose and at what price you are prepared to take on that liability.Don't bend at all.
Don't also be afraid of bailing out of a liability if there is something not right about the race and you think it's dodgy.Don't be afraid to accept a modest loss if the vibes aren't good.Respect the market.If it's screaming at you that all is not what it seems.
In all betting backing or laying you have to be ahead of the market if you are going to be successful.If you are generally backing even money chances that SP at 2.20 it's London to a Brick that over time you are going skint.Likewise if your laying evens and they are returning SP's at 1.90 you are going under.Once you've established that you are generally ahead of the market you can build on this to do even better.
In Part Two I'll be looking at how to use trading to help you do better at laying.This isn't for the faint hearted and it can be hugely frustrating if it goes wrong but it is the natural progression once you have started laying successfully and want to increase you margins.
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