Flemington Carnival - Day One (VRC Derby, Coolmore, Myer Classic and Mackinnon)

Huge day in prospect at Flemington with an outstanding programme including four G1's.
The band of heavy rain that swept through Victoria this morning only seemed to skirt Flemington so the track is still rated a Good 3. There is a bit more rain coming but looking at the radar I'm figuring the worst it will do is drop it down to Dead 4. The wind is quite strong and that may disadvantage on pacers but watch a race or two before jumping to any early conclusions.
I like to charge into such a great day's racing bullish about a handful of horses I want to back but I cannot. Prices on the ones I like are either slight unders or very tight to my assessed odds. Value may appear as the day goes on but at this stage I haven't backed anything.
There are a couple of possibilities at Rosehill but again at this stage I'm uncommitted.
Any Bets and Updates sent via Twitter

Cup Day At Bendigo & Warwick Farm

Bendigo post a Dead 4 and it's a fine warm day so there must be a good chance of an early upgrade.
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast ground there.

Order Of The Sun is 2.20 fav. in the Bendigo Cup which looks serious unders to me in what is admittedly a pretty thin race. He's going to get a soft lead here but he's up 6 points for his last win and is still 9 points out of the handicap on official figures. Negatives of one or another kind attach to every other runner here so it looks a very trappy race to me.
Two or three of interest today but I'd like to give markets a chance to open up a bit before ploughing in early.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter

Last Weeks Round Up & YTD Figures

It's quite a while since I haven't had a least one winner in the week but last week I couldn't snag one. Three seconds (two nosed out by the minimum margin) but no wins. It was a struggle finding value horses that I wanted to back so the damage wasn't terrible. Here are the figures:

UK & Int.

No bets last week in the blog or sent via twitter. The turf season is almost over and there won't be anymore UK bets this year. Breeders Cup this weekend may throw up something.

Australia

No bets in the blog last week

Bets sent via Twitter - Bets advised in 7 races - No winners

Stakes      6.45 units
Loss         6.45 units

Year to date figures

Stakes     455.45
PROFIT    82.53 units
POT          18.12 %

The biggest week on the Australian calendar starts on Saturday. Providing we are not served up with wet conditions there no reason to anything other than confident of a decent week.

Back tomorrow for Bendigo Cup day 

Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley and Rosehill

Moonee Valley is a Good 3 and no rain on the horizon. Rosehill is a Good 3 and again no rain around.
Very competitive racing all round today and there is nothing at this stage that I'm falling over myself to back at current quotes.

Cox Plate
This race can catch you out a bit and some of the recent renewals have been challenging for punters.
I don't like Moonee Valley particularly and I think it's a trappy place to be betting unless you have the right type of horse and scenario (generally on pace -little pressure). With little or no confidence my top 5 this year are:

Sacred Falls
Fawkner
Criterion
Adelaide
Silent Achiever

I expect it will be a relatively quiet day bets wise today. If I'm having any they will go out with any updates via Twitter

Geelong Cup Day & Kensington

Cup day at Geelong and the track is a Dead 4 and it's fine and very warm but with a possibility of rain late in the afternoon as the weather breaks. Probably upgrades early in the day.
Kensington is a Dead 4 and it's dry there so expect an upgrade.
A few of interest today but hoping that markets open up a bit more favourably closer to post time.
Pushed for time today but will be looking at Zanbagh in the cup and hoping to get set around the 6.0 mark.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during 

Last Week's Round Up & YTD Figures

Profitable week off a modest turnover considering the quality of the racing. I was expecting a very busy weekend with 6 G1's over Friday and Saturday in the UK but the rain came big style and whilst it was great to watch I kept my involvement mostly to trading and laying with just the one bet (loser) and that was in retrospect a bit loose. I've tried to play things very tight this year with what I actually send out and sometimes I'm simply too involved during racing to get out everything I'd like to. So far it's been a  good year and with only a few week's of decent racing left I'm hoping I don't hit a barren spell to finish off the year.
Here are the figures:

Australia

Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 2 races- 1 winner

Stakes                 2.65
Profit                   3.48 units

Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 6 races - 3 winners

Stakes                  7.60
Profit                    4.11 units

Total for Australia for the week PROFIT  7.59 units


UK & Int.

No blog's covering the UK due to the weather conditions so no blog bets .

Bets advised via Twitter - 1 bet (loser)

Stakes                   0.90
Loss                      0.90 units

Total UK for the week LOSS 0.90 units

Overall for the week PROFIT  6.69 units

YTD figures

Stakes                  449.00
PROFIT                 88.98 units
POT                        19.82%

Caulfield Cup Day & Randwick

Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's dry. Whether that Good 3 is actually a Dead 4 to begin with ( I suspect it is ) the early races will tell us. It'll keep getting faster as the day goes on so top of the ground horses should be suited.
Randwick is a Dead 5 and it's drying out all the time so expect an upgrade to a Dead 4 at some point. If there is anything at Randwick I'll send it via Twitter during racing.

Caulfield Cup

A bit below the usual standard this year I think.
Lucia Valentina is favourite at around 4.60 which is too short and I expect her to blow. Fast ground and 2400m are both niggling queries with her and whilst I concede she's a live hope I want to look elsewhere for the winner. My shortlist is the three Waller trained runners Junoob, Hawkspur and Who Shot The Barman and the Moody trained Brambles. I haven't finalized a strategy around these four yet but will send details through on Twitter during the afternoon.

Race 6
Sweet Idea to lead here and she's rock hard fit and will be hard to pass. Catkins and May's Dream have G1 races in mind so may only be 90% right today and Girl Guide has a bit to find to knock off Sweet Idea.

Advised Bet: Sweet Idea 1.75 units at 3.0 or better- you can have 3.40 with Sportsbet but only for loose change-generally 3.20 or less-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 (WG)for half the stake and monitor closely with balance as you may get better on Betfair at some point. I expect it to be very firm in betting close to the off

Other Bets/Updates sent via twitter during racing

Caulfield & Warwick Farm Today

Very good card at Caulfield today with a G3 races for the mares, a couple of Listed events and some very competitive handicaps. It's a Good 3 at Caulfield and it's dry there although there is a possibilty of showers later in the day.
Warwick Farm posts a Heavy 8 but Sydney has been deluged this morning so that reading may be very optismistic. Not doing anything early there and will need to see how the track is racing before seriously considering any plays there today.
I was busy with other things earlier in the week so only got into the Caulfield card early today and inevitably some of the early value is now long gone. I'm going to hope that some of these markets open up a bit closer to post time as there are few marginal ones today that have shortened and whilst I'm not playing at current quotes they will only have to ease slightly for me to get on board. Just one early bet today

Caulfield

Race 4
Fledged is very well treated here on his UK form. His Aussie debut was very sound in a race that was a bit too short for him. 2400m today suits much better. Bring Something is the other one of interest here but at this stage I'm only committed to Fledged

Advised Bet: Fledged 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-take the 6.0 with Bet 365 with guarantees for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance

Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing

Last week's Round Up & YTD Figures

The bets sent in the blog and by Twitter were in the red last week. Here are the figures:

Australia

Blog - Bets advised in 5 races - No winners

Stakes                       5.75
Loss                          5.75 units

Twitter - Bets advised in 2 races - 1 winner

Stakes                       2.40
Profit                         3.00 units

Total for Australia    Loss 2.75 units

UK & Int.

Blog - No Bets

Twitter - Bets advised in 2 races - No winners

Stakes                        1.50           
Loss                           1.50 units

Total for UK              Loss 1.50 units

Overall Total for the week LOSS 4.25 units


Year To Date Figures are:

Stakes                        437.85
PROFIT                       82.29 units
POT                             18.79%

Back Wednesday with a look at the very good Caulfield meeting

Guineas Day At Caulfield & Spring Champion At Randwick

Guineas day at Caulfield with four G1's the Caulfield Guineas, 1000 Guineas, Toorak Handicap and the Caulfield Stakes. All four are terrific races with good competitive fields. The track is posted as a Good 3 and it's dry.
Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick and a decent competitive card to complement the feature. It's posted a Good 3 at Randwick and he weather is dry.
Any Randwick bets will be sent via Twitter during racing.Just need a couple of the markets there to hopefully open up a bit before committing to anything there.

Caulfield

Race 6
With Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate looming as the target for some they may just be a tad short of their optimum this afternoon.Dissident is a risk at this trip and I'd want to see him win at this trip before siding with him. I'll take a chance at odds with the likely leader Crackerjack King. His effort when a close third behind Foreteller and Happy Trails was excellent and he'll be fitter and the extra 200m suits. He's around 16.0 this morning and I have rated at 12.0 here so there's enough value to be interested here.

Advised Bet: Cracerjack King 0.40 units at 13.0 or better-monitor on Betfair or TAB have a max $50 refund if you finish 2nd or 3rd so you may want to consider going there for your first $50

Race 7
Very open Toorak as usual but Bull Point is this one that interests me most. I've somehow missed getting on the Trust In A Gust bandwagon this Spring so with him up another 8 points for the last win I'm not jumping on now-definitely a very live chance though. Bull Point is just coming to the boil now though and from a good gate and with a master jockey he's the top pick

Advised Bet: Bull Point 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-doubt you'll get much better than the current top 6.50 but monitor closely.TAB have the same max $50 refund if your placed.

Race 8
Go Indy Go clearly on top for me although no good thing obviously as there are a few hopes. Terrific late splits last time coming from the rear in a slow run race and surely she beats those that ran against her there. The extra trip is all in her favour and she will go very,very close here.

Advised Bet: Go Indy Go 1.40 units at 3.70 or better-keep monitoring but doubt it starts bigger than the current top quote of 4.80. That's with Sportsbet and you get your first $100 back with them if you don't win but place 2nd or 3rd

Race 8
Rich Enuff a strong favourite and if he can run out the 1600m then he'll be hard to beat. He's a risk at the trip though so his 2.25 quote makes little appeal. The main opposition is Looks Like The Cat, Shooting To Win and Almalad in that order and none of these would surprise. I'm right on the margin of betting or passing this race but at around 7.50 Looks Like The Cat just gets me involved.

Advised Bet: Looks Like The Cat 0.70 units at 7.20 or better-monitor betting and note Sportsbet have the same $100 max refund here if you are 2nd or 3rd

Race 10
I can only realistically see two possibly winners here although it is a mares race so I've done my figures tighter so I'm sure there value before I play. Girl Guide has been excellent and she will be handy from a nice gate but Shamal Wind should have beaten her last time and she is the best horse here by a margin (concede Girl Guide is improving and was wide last time). I have Shamal 2.10 and GG at 3.60 so happy to play Shamal at around 2.50

Advised Bet: Shamal Wind 2.35 units at 2.20 or better. Plenty of 2.50 around so monitor on Betfair for a bit better. A saver on the other one or a saver exacta is an idea with some merit in it

Further Bets/Updates sent during racing. Terrific day hope you enjoy it

Last Week's Round Up and YTD Figures

Fantastic day at Longchamp yesterday and wonderful to see a real equine star in Treve re-establish herself again as the best around. Less wonderful was the insane decision by the French steward to demote Gleneagles in the G1 2-y-o event a decision that is impossible for all but the most pedantic to justify.
Bets wise this week it's been a dry rub in Australia but good in the UK & International area. Here are the figures:

Australia

Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 4 races and no winner
Stakes                        4.10
Loss                           4.10 units

Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 1 race and it's a loser

Stakes                        1.65
Loss                           1.65 units

Total for Australia for the week LOSS 5.75 units

UK & Int.

Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 2 races - 1 winner

Stakes                        2.70
Profit                          2.30 units

Bets advised by Twitter - Bets advised in 3 races - 2 winners

Stakes                        2.90
Profit                          9.10 units

Total for UK & Int. for the week PROFIT 11.40 units

Overall for the week PROFIT 5.65 units.

Overall Year to Date figures

Stakes  428.20
Profit     86.54
POT      20.21%

'Arc' Day In Paris

Longchamp must have received some of the rain that fell around Paris overnight but looking at the weather details it was probably no more than 3mm max. so expect genuine Good ground at least.

Race 1
Sole Power would be a risk on anything softer than Good but the weather gods have been kind to him and he's clearly the horse to beat. It's up to Richard Hughes to steer a clear passage for him but as long as he get's the break he should win. Don't expect fancy odds as the Paris Turfistes have learned not to be parochial in this race as it fall's to the home team only very occasionally. Trust Hughes to weave a way through and take the 3.50

Advised Bet: Sole Power 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.50 on offer now

Race 5
A very open looking 'Arc' and the betting reflects that. I'm opposing Just A Way and Avenir Certain as both have to be doubts at the trip. Ectot looked very good winning last time and he'll be that little bit fitter today so is not easily dismissed. He'll need to find another couple of lengths though to win and he's well found at the top of the market. I'll look to the fillies and will build a strategy around Taghrooda , Harp Star, Treve and Dolniya.

Advised Bets:  Taghrooda 0.70 units at 7.50 or better
                         Harp Star  0.65 units at  8.0 or better
                         Treve        0.40 units at 12.0 or better
                         Dolniya     0.30 units at 19.0 or better
                         Monitor on Betfair with all of these and you should do much better than the bookies


Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing  

Flemington ( Turnbull Stakes G1 ) & Randwick ( 3 G1's Epsom, Metropolitan & Flight)

Flemington and Randwick are both posted as Good 3 and dry warm conditions at both tracks.

Randwick (and Sydney) have their premier Spring day with three G1's. It's a good day's racing but overall it's hard not to conclude that Sydney's Spring Carnival has wilted badly in the last few years. The Epsom this year is way below the expected standard and many of the other races are lacking any real depth. The Metropolitan is a least very competitive although it's gone backwards since the distance was changed. No early bets at Randwick today although there may be a couple later on.

Flemington has a typically tough competitive card and there's no lack of depth here.

Race 5
Chautauqua was a most impressive winner here first up. He may turn out to be the new sprinting star but he meets Temple Of Boom 6kg's worse for the 2.5 length he beat him last time. That's a big turnaround and Temple is a rock solid performer here and at the odds differential I'd much rather back him. The NZ mare Bounding has very strong claims too but she's a mare resuming and has bigger targets although her first up stats are very good.

Advised Bet: Temple Of Boom 1.10 units at 4.70 or better-take the 5.50 Sportsbet avialable to noon


Race 7
I'm going with two here that may still have a bit more to offer.It's mighty competitive but both Entirely Platinum and  Stipulate appeal at the available odds.

Advised Bets: Stipulate 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-monitor
                        Entirely Platinum 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Sportsbet available until noon

Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter

Moonee Valley Tonight

Moonee Valley posts a Dead 4 and it's dry so an upgrade is more than likely.


Race 2
Very open looking 3-y-o fillies BM64. Devon Princess and Reann's Diamond head the betting both around the 4.50 mark. They both look unders to me and I'd much rather be with the Moody trained Where It Began who has a handy 3kg claimer and will either lead or be handy at least. The 4 runner race she was third in at Wangaratta rates a very strong BM64 on my figures (the winner is potentially useful and the second is decent at least). I was really taken with Kiyomi's debut effort in a decent maiden and she ran like she'd come on a lot for the race. They have bypassed the maiden and gone straight into 64 grade and I think she is likely to turn out pretty handy

Advised Bets : Where It Began 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-take the 14.0 with Bet365 (WG)
                         Kiyoni 0.55 units at 10.0 or better -take the 12.0 with Bet 365 (WG)


Race 5
The Bounty Queen makes plenty of appeal from gate 1. She has terrific barrier speed and she should get the lead here. She blew badly in the betting on her reappearance at Wangaratta and ran like the run was needed.She finished her last prep here beating Girl Guide giving her 4.5kg's. That horse is rated in the 90's now and The Bounty queen races off 71 here. Tackleberry is a serious chance if he can be as effective over this 955m trip first up. Magnus Reign has his first run for D.Weir and he's a proven performer here at this trip so if he finds any improvement he'll be a strong chance as well.

Advised Bets: The Bounty Queen 0.75 units at 7.0 or better

A couple of these bets were sent via Twitter a bit earlier but as the prices are still the same I'll log all these bets as sent in the blog for record keeping purposes

Any further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing