Four UK flat meetings today which is far more manageable than the six we've been getting through the summer months.Beverley and Sandown are Good to Firm.Chester is Good and Bath is Firm.Drying conditions everywhere today.
Beverley
Race 4
London Citizen makes plenty of appeal getting weight from all and with bonus of his rider's claim.He's top priced around 7.50 this morning but I have him at 5.0 here.
Advised Bet: London Citizen 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 7.50 on offer now
Sandown
Race 4
Sennockian Star just keeps improving.A lot of these have peaked or are becoming a bit suss.I don't think this is quite as competitive as it appears at first glance and I think Sennockian is value at the 7.0 on offer against my rating of 5.0
Advised Bet: Sennockian Star 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 7.0 for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
There are two or three more of interest today and hopefully markets will open to make them backable.If they do and I'm playing I send details via Twitter
Saturday 31 August 2013
Friday 30 August 2013
Memsie Stakes Day at Caulfield & Rosehill
G 1 action returns to Australian racing today with the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield.Some of Australia's best horses on show today but as last week plenty are kicking off their Spring campaigns and fitness and distance are issues for many.
Caulfield is posted a Dead 5 down from a Dead 4 yesterday but it's fine and should get back to the Dead 4 I would think.Rosehill is a Good 3 and drying.
At this stage there is nothing early at Rosehill but there are a couple of possibilities there and I'll send them by Twitter if I decide to play.
Caulfield is tough and I'm not interested in playing at short quotes so the bets are value but generally a bit speculative.
Caulfield
Race 2
Serene Star is very well suited at the weights here.She has some promising types against here and in truth her form has plateaued.Still there going to have to improve a fair few spots to overcome her and her last run was very good when she was in front far too soon.I have her at 7.0 here and 11.0 is available with Bet 365 and she's 13.0 for small money on Betfair
Advised Bet: Serene Star 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 3
Oriental Ruby ran very well resuming.She was steadily progressive last year.She does get back from her widish gate but there looks to be a fair pace here so I'm hoping she can run on.The claim for young Maloney is the big plus here-he's riding in hot form at the moment4.80 is the best quote and currently 5.20 on Betfair against my rating of 4.20
Advised Bet: Oriental Ruby 1.20 units at 4.40 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 5
Strawberry Boy heads the market at 2.30.I think that's a bit thin although I'll concede he's still not fully exposed.Under The Eiffel is around 15 spots better of with him (I'm including Maloneys claim) for being beaten less that 2 lengths when they met in May.I'd rather be with him at 14.0 against my rating of 9.0
Advised Bet: Under The Eiffel 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 14.0 for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Race 7
Pakal was impressive winning on his Australian debut.I'm not entirely convinced about that race though and he loses the 3kg claim here and rises 6 spots so effectively he's up 12.Many of these need further.Two I like are Peligrano who's versatile across a range of trips,progressive and was a real eyecatcher resuming and my old mate The Cleaner who was given a very forgettable ride last time.
I rate these two 5.50 and 8.0 respectively against 6.50 and 11.0 (in places)
Advised Bets: Peligrano 0.90 at 5.80 or better-take the 6.50 for 50% amd monitor on Betfair with the balance
The Cleaner 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Caulfield is posted a Dead 5 down from a Dead 4 yesterday but it's fine and should get back to the Dead 4 I would think.Rosehill is a Good 3 and drying.
At this stage there is nothing early at Rosehill but there are a couple of possibilities there and I'll send them by Twitter if I decide to play.
Caulfield is tough and I'm not interested in playing at short quotes so the bets are value but generally a bit speculative.
Caulfield
Race 2
Serene Star is very well suited at the weights here.She has some promising types against here and in truth her form has plateaued.Still there going to have to improve a fair few spots to overcome her and her last run was very good when she was in front far too soon.I have her at 7.0 here and 11.0 is available with Bet 365 and she's 13.0 for small money on Betfair
Advised Bet: Serene Star 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 3
Oriental Ruby ran very well resuming.She was steadily progressive last year.She does get back from her widish gate but there looks to be a fair pace here so I'm hoping she can run on.The claim for young Maloney is the big plus here-he's riding in hot form at the moment4.80 is the best quote and currently 5.20 on Betfair against my rating of 4.20
Advised Bet: Oriental Ruby 1.20 units at 4.40 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 5
Strawberry Boy heads the market at 2.30.I think that's a bit thin although I'll concede he's still not fully exposed.Under The Eiffel is around 15 spots better of with him (I'm including Maloneys claim) for being beaten less that 2 lengths when they met in May.I'd rather be with him at 14.0 against my rating of 9.0
Advised Bet: Under The Eiffel 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 14.0 for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Race 7
Pakal was impressive winning on his Australian debut.I'm not entirely convinced about that race though and he loses the 3kg claim here and rises 6 spots so effectively he's up 12.Many of these need further.Two I like are Peligrano who's versatile across a range of trips,progressive and was a real eyecatcher resuming and my old mate The Cleaner who was given a very forgettable ride last time.
I rate these two 5.50 and 8.0 respectively against 6.50 and 11.0 (in places)
Advised Bets: Peligrano 0.90 at 5.80 or better-take the 6.50 for 50% amd monitor on Betfair with the balance
The Cleaner 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Friday's UK Racing
Five UK flat meetings today.The three afternoon meetings Chester,Sandown and Thirsk all post Good but Sandown and Thirsk will almost certainly be Good to Firm as the day progresses.Southwell All Weather and Salisbury (Good to Firm) this evening.Warm and dry everywhere today.
Three or four of interest today but only if markets open up a bit.I cannot commit to anything as early markets are framed so if there are any bets I'll send them through via Twitter 10 to 15 minutes before post time.
Lots of very good horses going round in Australia tomorrow and back then with a look at Caulfield and Rosehill
Three or four of interest today but only if markets open up a bit.I cannot commit to anything as early markets are framed so if there are any bets I'll send them through via Twitter 10 to 15 minutes before post time.
Lots of very good horses going round in Australia tomorrow and back then with a look at Caulfield and Rosehill
Wednesday 28 August 2013
Wednesday's UK Racing and All Weather racing
The Australian bets have been letting the blog down this month so it was good to bounce back a bit with an 8.0 winner today.All three selections ran really well and it was a bit frustrating to see the one advised at 12.0 get chinned on the post.As a result the blog is still behind on the Aussie bets this month but my loins are stirring with the Spring looming here and things will be pumping soon enough.
Four UK flat meeting today,two turf and two synthetic.If anything the All Weather looks more attractive than the turf which tells you that the turf is very unappealing.
All Weather racing in the middle of Summer depletes the quality of the turf racing and is a total nuisance in my opinion.
Before the All Weather came into existence I used whinge and moan about the lack of it when racing was called off due to adverse weather.That was around 20 odd years ago when I was young and progressive.Now I think the cure is worse than the ailment and would be delighted if it vanished altogether.No chance of that I know with all the "participants" loving it.Participants in the racing world does not include punters if you weren't already aware of that.
Around the time it was introduced into British racing coincided with the "participants"deciding that racing had morphed from a sport into an industry.I admit to being a party to this way of thinking then but now know that I was wrong.
Initially they had Jumps racing on the All Weather but the bookies were were so wary betting on it because it was so obviously corrupt that it became untenable.
A few weeks ago the Racing Post reported that the racing authorities had decided against allowing the owners of the Great Leighs all weather track from resuming racing for undisclosed reasons.Underneath the story in the comments section one wag wrote "one down,three to go!"which I thought was brilliantly apt and very funny.
No bets today and no blog tomorrow as I have other commitments so back on Friday when the racing picks up.
Four UK flat meeting today,two turf and two synthetic.If anything the All Weather looks more attractive than the turf which tells you that the turf is very unappealing.
All Weather racing in the middle of Summer depletes the quality of the turf racing and is a total nuisance in my opinion.
Before the All Weather came into existence I used whinge and moan about the lack of it when racing was called off due to adverse weather.That was around 20 odd years ago when I was young and progressive.Now I think the cure is worse than the ailment and would be delighted if it vanished altogether.No chance of that I know with all the "participants" loving it.Participants in the racing world does not include punters if you weren't already aware of that.
Around the time it was introduced into British racing coincided with the "participants"deciding that racing had morphed from a sport into an industry.I admit to being a party to this way of thinking then but now know that I was wrong.
Initially they had Jumps racing on the All Weather but the bookies were were so wary betting on it because it was so obviously corrupt that it became untenable.
A few weeks ago the Racing Post reported that the racing authorities had decided against allowing the owners of the Great Leighs all weather track from resuming racing for undisclosed reasons.Underneath the story in the comments section one wag wrote "one down,three to go!"which I thought was brilliantly apt and very funny.
No bets today and no blog tomorrow as I have other commitments so back on Friday when the racing picks up.
Tuesday 27 August 2013
Sandown & Warwick Farm Today
Decent midweek racing today so that's a clear sign that Spring is just around the corner.
I took a full day away from things yesterday and had a big night so as is usually the case in those situations by the time you "do the form" the juicy odds have gone.I would have happily backed Tried and Tired in race 6 at Warwick Farm at 4.60.3.20 best now and I still may play there but am not committed at this stage.If I'm playing I'll sent a message via Twitter.
Sandown posts Dead 4 but is a likely upgrade and Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and drying.
Sandown
Race 5
The Tassie mare This Moment is overs at 8.0 compared to my figures of 6.0.In career best form and didn't have much room up the straight last time.
Advised Bet: This Moment 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 for 70% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 6
I know Saint Mark was the victim of a poor tactical ride last time but nevertheless he's way too short here.He's not a proven stayer for mine and I want to find one to beat him here.I saw merit in Mendivel,North Lodge and Tough Vintage at the odds and thought about going three against the field but really Mendivel is way overs at 7.0.Progessive,goes forward,definitely stays and is pitbull when challenged.7.0 very nice thank you against my 4.50 max
Advised Bet: Medivel 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 7.0 on offer now
Race 9
Another favourite that's too short here in Soros at 3.40.Sure he bolted up last time but that was against fully exposed out of form horses on the synthetic.Rhythm To Spare and Weissmuller are both promising but have bigger targets over further bur neither would surprise particularly Rhythm To Spare.Lord Durante get across to lead here with Gauci aboard.He hasn't finished improving and back up in trip can definitely have a say in this.12.0 is big overs against my 6.50
Advised Bet; Lord Durante 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-take the 12.0 on offer now
I took a full day away from things yesterday and had a big night so as is usually the case in those situations by the time you "do the form" the juicy odds have gone.I would have happily backed Tried and Tired in race 6 at Warwick Farm at 4.60.3.20 best now and I still may play there but am not committed at this stage.If I'm playing I'll sent a message via Twitter.
Sandown posts Dead 4 but is a likely upgrade and Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and drying.
Sandown
Race 5
The Tassie mare This Moment is overs at 8.0 compared to my figures of 6.0.In career best form and didn't have much room up the straight last time.
Advised Bet: This Moment 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 for 70% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 6
I know Saint Mark was the victim of a poor tactical ride last time but nevertheless he's way too short here.He's not a proven stayer for mine and I want to find one to beat him here.I saw merit in Mendivel,North Lodge and Tough Vintage at the odds and thought about going three against the field but really Mendivel is way overs at 7.0.Progessive,goes forward,definitely stays and is pitbull when challenged.7.0 very nice thank you against my 4.50 max
Advised Bet: Medivel 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 7.0 on offer now
Race 9
Another favourite that's too short here in Soros at 3.40.Sure he bolted up last time but that was against fully exposed out of form horses on the synthetic.Rhythm To Spare and Weissmuller are both promising but have bigger targets over further bur neither would surprise particularly Rhythm To Spare.Lord Durante get across to lead here with Gauci aboard.He hasn't finished improving and back up in trip can definitely have a say in this.12.0 is big overs against my 6.50
Advised Bet; Lord Durante 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-take the 12.0 on offer now
Tuesday's UK Racing
Taking a rest day today so no bets.A couple that look interesting going round in Australia tomorrow so there may be something there.Back tomorrow.
Monday 26 August 2013
Monday's UK Racing
Five UK flat meetings with lots of quantity and not much quality.A warm,dry day today with no rain on the radar anywhere.Chepstow,Ripon and Warwick post Good.Epsom and Newcastle Good to Soft.The ground will dry out everywhere so those going descriptions may be some way off by mid afternoon.Very,very difficult day if your trying to back winners and no advised bets early.If anything does come up I'll send it via Twitter
Sunday 25 August 2013
Weekly Round Up
A difficult week I thought with the rain coming at the weekend complicating things majorly.Here's the breakdown for the week:
Australia
Blog Just one bet this week
Stakes 0.85
Returns 0.00
LOSS 0.85 units
Tweets Bets in 2 races-No winners
Stakes 2.95
Returns 0.00
LOSS 2.95 units
Australia weekly total LOSS 3.80 units
UK
Blog Bets in 3 races-no winners
Stakes 2.70
Returns 0.00
LOSS 2.70 units
Tweets Bets in 8 races-3 winners
Stakes 11.40
Returns 19.80
PROFIT 8.40 units
UK weekly total PROFIT 5.70 units
Overall for the week PROFIT 1.90 units
Australia
Blog Just one bet this week
Stakes 0.85
Returns 0.00
LOSS 0.85 units
Tweets Bets in 2 races-No winners
Stakes 2.95
Returns 0.00
LOSS 2.95 units
Australia weekly total LOSS 3.80 units
UK
Blog Bets in 3 races-no winners
Stakes 2.70
Returns 0.00
LOSS 2.70 units
Tweets Bets in 8 races-3 winners
Stakes 11.40
Returns 19.80
PROFIT 8.40 units
UK weekly total PROFIT 5.70 units
Overall for the week PROFIT 1.90 units
Sunday's UK racing
Three UK flat meetings today.Beverley and Yarmouth will be Good ground or faster and Goodwood is Good with Good to Soft patches and drizzle forecast so it may end up on the slow side of good overall.There are two or three possibilities but only one definite bet at this stage.
Goodwood
Race 4
Balmoral Castle makes plenty of appeal in a modest contest for amateur riders.Firstly his rider has won on him and gets on well with him and anyway he's an uncomplicated ride.He won for the blog in one of these events at Newbury in the Spring.He had a couple of months off and resumed in an apprentice race and I sent him through as a bet via Twitter.He was forced very wide and then was sent on far too early and was a sitting shot late.He meets the winner of that race Hectors Chance 6lb better today plus Mr Hardings 5lb claim.Hectors Chance is favourite but Balmoral Castle ought to be.Balmoral is best priced at 8.0 against my rated price of 4.50.
Advised Bet: Balmoral Castle 1.10 units at 5.0 or better-take the 8.0/7.50 now for all the stake
If there is any more today I'll send via twitter (3 UK winners from 7 tweets this week)
Goodwood
Race 4
Balmoral Castle makes plenty of appeal in a modest contest for amateur riders.Firstly his rider has won on him and gets on well with him and anyway he's an uncomplicated ride.He won for the blog in one of these events at Newbury in the Spring.He had a couple of months off and resumed in an apprentice race and I sent him through as a bet via Twitter.He was forced very wide and then was sent on far too early and was a sitting shot late.He meets the winner of that race Hectors Chance 6lb better today plus Mr Hardings 5lb claim.Hectors Chance is favourite but Balmoral Castle ought to be.Balmoral is best priced at 8.0 against my rated price of 4.50.
Advised Bet: Balmoral Castle 1.10 units at 5.0 or better-take the 8.0/7.50 now for all the stake
If there is any more today I'll send via twitter (3 UK winners from 7 tweets this week)
Saturday 24 August 2013
York Ebor Festival-Day Four
Rain across all eastern parts complicates things as far as early markets are concerned.York is Slow.Newmarket Good but it's raining there.Goodwood looks like it will be rain affected.Redcar is in doubt and will inspect at 12 noon.Windsor will probably get some rain too.
Bets in just 2 races at this stage but there will almost certainly be more once I have an accurate handle on ground conditions.Further bets sent via Twitter ( a winner and a third sent yesterday)
York
Race 4
A word of caution here-my record in this race is woeful.Still the figures are strong for another try this year.Opinion will love the ground and is a worthy favourite.He was luckless at Haydock and this trip will really suit.6.50 on my figures.Tropical Beat is the other one that appeals and I have him at 9.0
Advised Bets: Opinion 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Tropical Beat 0.55 units at 9.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Newmarket
Race 3
Mankini keeps improving and I doubt any rain will adversely affect his chances.Competitive race but he looks good value on Betfair at 9.0 plus against my rating of 6.50
Advised Bet: Mankini 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Bets in just 2 races at this stage but there will almost certainly be more once I have an accurate handle on ground conditions.Further bets sent via Twitter ( a winner and a third sent yesterday)
York
Race 4
A word of caution here-my record in this race is woeful.Still the figures are strong for another try this year.Opinion will love the ground and is a worthy favourite.He was luckless at Haydock and this trip will really suit.6.50 on my figures.Tropical Beat is the other one that appeals and I have him at 9.0
Advised Bets: Opinion 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Tropical Beat 0.55 units at 9.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Newmarket
Race 3
Mankini keeps improving and I doubt any rain will adversely affect his chances.Competitive race but he looks good value on Betfair at 9.0 plus against my rating of 6.50
Advised Bet: Mankini 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Friday 23 August 2013
Moonee Valley & Warwick Farm Today
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and drying so it may get to a Good 3 as the day progresses.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and a dry day forecast so it'll only get faster.I'm not an expect on track management but there is some consternation about the watering policy at Warwick Farm and how it will affect today's surface.I believe they have had morning frosts and have watered on top.Maybe bias so watch for it early.
August Saturday's are always trappy with all these good horses resuming over inadequate trips so only the one bet at this stage today.If markets loosen up a bit there may be more and if so I'll send via Twitter.
Moonee Valley
Race 8
General Offer get a nice run trailing the leader here.The ground was too soft for him on his comeback run but nevertheless he ran respectfully enough from a hopeless position.1200m is his trip (1300m just seems to stretch him) and he looks good value at the 8.50 on offer this morning with Sportingbet/Centrbet.
Advised Bet: General Offer 0.85 units at 6.50 or better.take the 8.50 on offer now
August Saturday's are always trappy with all these good horses resuming over inadequate trips so only the one bet at this stage today.If markets loosen up a bit there may be more and if so I'll send via Twitter.
Moonee Valley
Race 8
General Offer get a nice run trailing the leader here.The ground was too soft for him on his comeback run but nevertheless he ran respectfully enough from a hopeless position.1200m is his trip (1300m just seems to stretch him) and he looks good value at the 8.50 on offer this morning with Sportingbet/Centrbet.
Advised Bet: General Offer 0.85 units at 6.50 or better.take the 8.50 on offer now
York Ebor Festival-Day Three
20mm of overnight rain has changed the ground at York to Good to Soft.A dry warm day is forecast so exactly how wet (or dry) it will be by the time racing gets underway is a bit of a guess.Everything I'm interested in doing there today is ground dependent so I will not be betting early today.I want to see the times for the first couple of races and then go from there.It's much the same story with the other meetings too so any bets today will be sent via Twitter and I'll try to get them out at least 10/15 mins. before post time.I am keen on two or three but things need to come good weather wise.
Thursday 22 August 2013
York Ebor Festival-Day Two
Day two at York and Good to Firm posted.3mm of water put on the track overnight but expect fast summer ground again today.There is a chance of a passing shower mid-afternoon onwards.
At this stage there are no advised bets.I am interested in a couple but at this stage I am uncommitted.
If there are any bets they will be sent via Twitter (nice winner yesterday but,still can't believe it managed to get up and win!).Sorry I don't have anything definite but it is a very open looking card and markets are very tight.
At this stage there are no advised bets.I am interested in a couple but at this stage I am uncommitted.
If there are any bets they will be sent via Twitter (nice winner yesterday but,still can't believe it managed to get up and win!).Sorry I don't have anything definite but it is a very open looking card and markets are very tight.
Wednesday 21 August 2013
York Ebor Festival -Day One
Good to Firm at York and a generally dry day so fast conditions will prevail.
Lot's of problems for me with the Racing Post site today and last Saturday so I'm hoping the techo's there can sort my problems out as without replays I'm at a big disadvantage.
At this stage just the one although Race 5 at York interests me a lot but I'm holding fire on it for now and with the other meetings.Other bets sent via Twitter is the best I can do with these replay problems having compromised my form study
York
Race 1
Have to be with Above Standard back on fast ground and back half a furlong in trip.Still improving and a deserved favourite in a competitive sprint-my rating 6.0 and 8.6 currently on Betfair
Advised Bet: Above Standard 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-average in on Betfair
Lot's of problems for me with the Racing Post site today and last Saturday so I'm hoping the techo's there can sort my problems out as without replays I'm at a big disadvantage.
At this stage just the one although Race 5 at York interests me a lot but I'm holding fire on it for now and with the other meetings.Other bets sent via Twitter is the best I can do with these replay problems having compromised my form study
York
Race 1
Have to be with Above Standard back on fast ground and back half a furlong in trip.Still improving and a deserved favourite in a competitive sprint-my rating 6.0 and 8.6 currently on Betfair
Advised Bet: Above Standard 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-average in on Betfair
Monday 19 August 2013
Weekly Round Up
Not a disastrous week but definitely not a good one either.I like to think I keep things pretty tight but the grip loosened a bit last weekend and inevitably losses are the result.With a very big week coming up I want to be at my best so I'll be taking a couple of days away from the racing to clear my head and freshen up.So nothing today or tomorrow but back Wednesday for the Ebor meeting at York.
Meanwhile here are the figures for last week:
Australia One bet only last week and nothing sent via Twitter
Stakes 0.90
Returns Nil
LOSS 0.90
Australia this week Loss 0.90 units
UK Bets advised in 7 races-No winners
Stakes 9.50
Returns Nil
LOSS 9.50
Tweets Bets advised in 3 races-1 winner
Stakes 3.60
Returns 5.83
PROFIT 2.23
UK this week Loss 7.27 units
Total this week Loss 8.17 units
Meanwhile here are the figures for last week:
Australia One bet only last week and nothing sent via Twitter
Stakes 0.90
Returns Nil
LOSS 0.90
Australia this week Loss 0.90 units
UK Bets advised in 7 races-No winners
Stakes 9.50
Returns Nil
LOSS 9.50
Tweets Bets advised in 3 races-1 winner
Stakes 3.60
Returns 5.83
PROFIT 2.23
UK this week Loss 7.27 units
Total this week Loss 8.17 units
Sunday 18 August 2013
Sunday's UK Racing
Just the one UK flat meeting today at Pontefract and it's Good to Firm there and likely to be a dry day.
It's a decent meeting but surely they could have saved one of yesterday's six meetings for today to pair up with it.
I was a bit off focus yesterday and was annoyed with myself as a result.I made the wrong call on two or three marginal decisions and what was a losing day could and probably should have been a winning one.
At this stage just the one today but if anything else appeals I'll send it via Twitter.
Pontefract
Race 4
The last time Galician ran over this course and distance in the spring she went down narrowly to subsequent Wokingham winner York Glory.Her last two efforts in ultra competitive handicaps have been over further but with plenty of pace likely here I fancy her to be strongest at the finish.She's drawn to get a cosy run behind the speed.I love top grade handicap form going into Listed grade and a few of the opposition here are on the "avoid" list.3.80 max on my figures and generally 4.50 but I've got around 5.50 on Betfair so that looks the best option
Advised Bet: Galician 1.35 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
It's a decent meeting but surely they could have saved one of yesterday's six meetings for today to pair up with it.
I was a bit off focus yesterday and was annoyed with myself as a result.I made the wrong call on two or three marginal decisions and what was a losing day could and probably should have been a winning one.
At this stage just the one today but if anything else appeals I'll send it via Twitter.
Pontefract
Race 4
The last time Galician ran over this course and distance in the spring she went down narrowly to subsequent Wokingham winner York Glory.Her last two efforts in ultra competitive handicaps have been over further but with plenty of pace likely here I fancy her to be strongest at the finish.She's drawn to get a cosy run behind the speed.I love top grade handicap form going into Listed grade and a few of the opposition here are on the "avoid" list.3.80 max on my figures and generally 4.50 but I've got around 5.50 on Betfair so that looks the best option
Advised Bet: Galician 1.35 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Saturday 17 August 2013
Saturday's UK Racing
Six UK flat meetings.Lingfield this evening is Good to Firm and the rest start out Good.There are possibilities of showers later.
Three races with bets advised after looking at early markets and anything further will be sent via Twitter
Newbury
Race 3
Biographer get a good surface here and whilst some rain would help him I still want to be with him at anything over my rated price of 5.0
Advised Bet; Biographer 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.0 on offer now for 40% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Newmarket
Race 3
Two against the field here.Ninjango ran really well against the older horses in the Stewards Cup and this track will probably suit him ideally with good pace likely.My rating 5.0.Midnight Flower is still on the up and this is where she has done all her best work.My rating 6.0
Advised Bets Ninjango 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on betfair with the balance
Midnight Flower 0.90 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.0 for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Ripon
Race 3
In a very competitive sprint I still see some value in Pearl Ice at 10.0 against my rating of 8.0.Goes well at this track and useful apprentice travels from Ireland for the ride.
Advised Bet: Pearl Ice 0.65 units at 8.50 or better-take the 10.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Three races with bets advised after looking at early markets and anything further will be sent via Twitter
Newbury
Race 3
Biographer get a good surface here and whilst some rain would help him I still want to be with him at anything over my rated price of 5.0
Advised Bet; Biographer 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.0 on offer now for 40% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Newmarket
Race 3
Two against the field here.Ninjango ran really well against the older horses in the Stewards Cup and this track will probably suit him ideally with good pace likely.My rating 5.0.Midnight Flower is still on the up and this is where she has done all her best work.My rating 6.0
Advised Bets Ninjango 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on betfair with the balance
Midnight Flower 0.90 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.0 for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Ripon
Race 3
In a very competitive sprint I still see some value in Pearl Ice at 10.0 against my rating of 8.0.Goes well at this track and useful apprentice travels from Ireland for the ride.
Advised Bet: Pearl Ice 0.65 units at 8.50 or better-take the 10.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Friday 16 August 2013
Caulfield & Rosehill Today
Caulfield is a Good 3 with the possibility of light rain later.Doubt it'll make much difference.Rosehill is a Good 3 and Dry.
Good horses resuming in droves today and fitness levels are guesswork in most cases.These quality early season events for 3-y-olds are an absolute minefield at this time of the year and I generally steer well clear of them.Markets are very tight in the other races and I cannot find anything to interest me in the early betting at Rosehill.Caulfield is much the same but I will go on a retrieving mission in race 2 there.
Caulfield
Race 2
Vizhaka was given a nonsense ride by Newitt last time and I knew the money was lost after they had gone 200m.Aside from the imported horses this is a very similar contest.I would expect the imports to be ridden back and probably to be better for the run.That leaves Alpha Proxima (gifted a soft lead last time and 4 spots higher now),Brians Honour and Luckyi'mbarefoot (both ideally suited by wet ground and Chasse (worse off with Vizhaka for being beaten by him last time).Vizhaka should slot in behind the pace here and get a good run.5.50 om my figures and 6.50 available now is a bit of value
Advised Bet: Vizhaka 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-take the 6.50 for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Good horses resuming in droves today and fitness levels are guesswork in most cases.These quality early season events for 3-y-olds are an absolute minefield at this time of the year and I generally steer well clear of them.Markets are very tight in the other races and I cannot find anything to interest me in the early betting at Rosehill.Caulfield is much the same but I will go on a retrieving mission in race 2 there.
Caulfield
Race 2
Vizhaka was given a nonsense ride by Newitt last time and I knew the money was lost after they had gone 200m.Aside from the imported horses this is a very similar contest.I would expect the imports to be ridden back and probably to be better for the run.That leaves Alpha Proxima (gifted a soft lead last time and 4 spots higher now),Brians Honour and Luckyi'mbarefoot (both ideally suited by wet ground and Chasse (worse off with Vizhaka for being beaten by him last time).Vizhaka should slot in behind the pace here and get a good run.5.50 om my figures and 6.50 available now is a bit of value
Advised Bet: Vizhaka 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-take the 6.50 for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Friday's UK Racing
Five UK flat meeting today,three this afternoon and two this evening.Catterick and Newcastle have had the rain and are unlikely to get any more so both will begin to dry out as the day progresses.Catterick is Good and Newcastle is Good to Soft.Newbury and Newmarket are both Good to Firm but will have some rain so they may go to Good or worse-monitor.Nottingham starts as Good to Soft but it's still wet there and soft seems likely looking at the radar.
Two bets at this stage and a fair possibility of more once weather trends are confirmed.Further bets sent by Twitter ( a winner and a 10.0 third sent via Twitter late yesterday)
Newbury
Race 5
A bit of rain shouldn't inconvenience Lilbourne Lass who won easily on debut with juice in the ground.She makes more appeal to me than Wind Fire.The Irish filly Abbakova looks the other realistic chance here.I clearly have Lilbourne on top here at 2.60 revised after the withdrawal of Reroute earlier.Some 3.25 is still on offer but generally 3.0
Advised Bet; Lilbourne Lass 1.85 units at 2.70 or better-take the 3.25 for 65% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Newcastle
Race 2
7 furlongs with the sting out of the ground is just what Our Boy Jack needs to get him back in the winners circle.He's at the top of his game right now and today's conditions are perfect for him.A lot of the opposition are out of form so I don't think this race is anything like as competitive as it may look at first glance.
Advised Bet: Our Boy Jack 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.0 on offer for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Two bets at this stage and a fair possibility of more once weather trends are confirmed.Further bets sent by Twitter ( a winner and a 10.0 third sent via Twitter late yesterday)
Newbury
Race 5
A bit of rain shouldn't inconvenience Lilbourne Lass who won easily on debut with juice in the ground.She makes more appeal to me than Wind Fire.The Irish filly Abbakova looks the other realistic chance here.I clearly have Lilbourne on top here at 2.60 revised after the withdrawal of Reroute earlier.Some 3.25 is still on offer but generally 3.0
Advised Bet; Lilbourne Lass 1.85 units at 2.70 or better-take the 3.25 for 65% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Newcastle
Race 2
7 furlongs with the sting out of the ground is just what Our Boy Jack needs to get him back in the winners circle.He's at the top of his game right now and today's conditions are perfect for him.A lot of the opposition are out of form so I don't think this race is anything like as competitive as it may look at first glance.
Advised Bet: Our Boy Jack 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.0 on offer for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Thursday 15 August 2013
Thursday's UK Racing
Sorry there were no blogs the last couple of days but something came up and needed immediate attention.
Decent stuff to day and a day to be positive about generally I think although early markets look tight.
Four flat UK meetings today.Beverley, Newmarket and Salisbury this afternoon all post Good to Firm but there is a chance of heavy showers at Beverley so a change may occur there.Newmarket should be fine and Salisbury may get light rain later.Chepstow this evening is Good to Soft and will need monitoring as it's hard to predict with any real accuracy.
At the moment only the one advised bet but a fair chance there may be more and if so I'll send via Twitter around 10 mins. ahead of post time.
Newmarket
Race 5
Gold Hunter's price has moved in a bit from the Betfair offers of around 4.3 when I was doing the form earlier.3.50 is still available against my rated price of 3.0 so there is still value there.
Advised Bet: Gold Hunter 1.65 units at 3.10 or better-take the 3.50 for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Decent stuff to day and a day to be positive about generally I think although early markets look tight.
Four flat UK meetings today.Beverley, Newmarket and Salisbury this afternoon all post Good to Firm but there is a chance of heavy showers at Beverley so a change may occur there.Newmarket should be fine and Salisbury may get light rain later.Chepstow this evening is Good to Soft and will need monitoring as it's hard to predict with any real accuracy.
At the moment only the one advised bet but a fair chance there may be more and if so I'll send via Twitter around 10 mins. ahead of post time.
Newmarket
Race 5
Gold Hunter's price has moved in a bit from the Betfair offers of around 4.3 when I was doing the form earlier.3.50 is still available against my rated price of 3.0 so there is still value there.
Advised Bet: Gold Hunter 1.65 units at 3.10 or better-take the 3.50 for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Monday 12 August 2013
Weekly Round Up
As in mid-July the quality of racing has dropped and the opportunities are thin on the ground at the moment.As I've mentioned in the blog before I don't put anything up on here unless I'm backing it myself.Unless I've found something that I definitely want to commit my own money to then I'll happily pass.
Last week there were only 3 bets.2 winners (both relatively short) and the other one (7.0 into 5.0) was nosed out in a desperate finish.Hopefully there will be a bit more action this week but it won't happen today as I'm taking a rest day.Here's the breakdown for last week:
Australia
No bets in the blog last week and nothing sent via Twitter
UK
Bets in 3 races-2 winners
Stakes 5.95
Returns 12.32
Profit 6.37 units
No bets sent via Twitter
Total Profit for the week 6.37 units
Last week there were only 3 bets.2 winners (both relatively short) and the other one (7.0 into 5.0) was nosed out in a desperate finish.Hopefully there will be a bit more action this week but it won't happen today as I'm taking a rest day.Here's the breakdown for last week:
Australia
No bets in the blog last week and nothing sent via Twitter
UK
Bets in 3 races-2 winners
Stakes 5.95
Returns 12.32
Profit 6.37 units
No bets sent via Twitter
Total Profit for the week 6.37 units
Sunday 11 August 2013
Sunday's UK Racing plus Deauville & The Curragh
Leicester and Windsor the UK action plus the G1 Prix Jaques le Marois at Deauville and a very good card at the Curragh.Leicester,Windsor and The Curragh are Good to Firm with a generally dry outlook-any rain that does fall is likely to be light.As occurred last week the Racing Post and the Paris Turf have differing going reports for Deauville,Good and Good to Soft respectively.There is light rain forecast for Deauville so Good to Soft looks the most likely.
The Jaques le Marios is a terrific race this year.I doubt there is a great deal between Dawn Approach (marginally the best form but done plenty of racing) Intello (looks very smart and still unexposed) and Moonlight Cloud (good as ever last week and goes particularly well here-will benefit if the rain does get into the track).Elusive Kate is next best.No fat in the market though so no bet for me.
The are possibilities at both Leicester and Windsor but the early markets are a tad conflicting so any bets there will be sent by Twitter.Strong chance there will be something later
Just the one advised bet today so far
The Curragh
Race2
Maputo goes from strength to strength as I expected him to do as this season wore on.The opposition here has form that looks to have plateaued.Expect him to either track Qewy or lead and keep galloping on.I have him 2.25 here and he's a general 2.75 this morning.
Advised Bet: Maputo 2.20 at 2.35 or better-take the 2.75 for 40% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
The Jaques le Marios is a terrific race this year.I doubt there is a great deal between Dawn Approach (marginally the best form but done plenty of racing) Intello (looks very smart and still unexposed) and Moonlight Cloud (good as ever last week and goes particularly well here-will benefit if the rain does get into the track).Elusive Kate is next best.No fat in the market though so no bet for me.
The are possibilities at both Leicester and Windsor but the early markets are a tad conflicting so any bets there will be sent by Twitter.Strong chance there will be something later
Just the one advised bet today so far
The Curragh
Race2
Maputo goes from strength to strength as I expected him to do as this season wore on.The opposition here has form that looks to have plateaued.Expect him to either track Qewy or lead and keep galloping on.I have him 2.25 here and he's a general 2.75 this morning.
Advised Bet: Maputo 2.20 at 2.35 or better-take the 2.75 for 40% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Saturday 10 August 2013
Saturday's UK Meetings
Six meetings today,four afternoon and two evening.Dry weather forecast so expect decent summer ground at all venues.
Ascot stages it's annual Shergar Cup meeting.There are six races there today and all of them are seriously complex.It always seems to be an impossible meeting to unravel and personally I think it's a waste of time but conceed some people obviously view it differently.
It's tough racing everywhere today.I might look at tweeting through a few "lay" bets during the afternoon depending on how markets develop.There are a couple of possible bets but the markets have to move a bit yet to bring them into the value range.At this stage only one advised bet today
Haydock
Race 7
This is competitive but there is value in Renew at early quotes (best priced at 7.0) I have him 5.0.
Advised Bet: Renew 1 unit at 5.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Ascot stages it's annual Shergar Cup meeting.There are six races there today and all of them are seriously complex.It always seems to be an impossible meeting to unravel and personally I think it's a waste of time but conceed some people obviously view it differently.
It's tough racing everywhere today.I might look at tweeting through a few "lay" bets during the afternoon depending on how markets develop.There are a couple of possible bets but the markets have to move a bit yet to bring them into the value range.At this stage only one advised bet today
Haydock
Race 7
This is competitive but there is value in Renew at early quotes (best priced at 7.0) I have him 5.0.
Advised Bet: Renew 1 unit at 5.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Friday 9 August 2013
Flemington & Randwick today
Flemington posts a Slow 6 and Randwick a Slow 7.When I did the form yesterday morning Flemington was a Slow 7 and it was raining hard in Melbourne with the promise of more today.Now the radar is clear and the forecast is for a dry day so a Dead reading later on is not out of the question.
Randwick is drying out and has a good chance of an upgrade as the day progresses.
The Flemington markets have some scope to change a bit so what looks unappealing now may present an opportunity later.
Randwick is under fire from serious form analysts.It's proving very hard to lead here and while that may just be the way the recent races have panned out the suspicion is that the inside is a serious disadvantage.The rail is out 5m today but whether that's enough to even things up remains to be seen.
The better horses are slowly getting back to the track to begin their Spring campaigns.That complicates the analysis but it generally also produces opportunities.At the moment nothing currently stands out that I want to back but things may change later. If there are any bets today they will be sent via Twitter
Randwick is drying out and has a good chance of an upgrade as the day progresses.
The Flemington markets have some scope to change a bit so what looks unappealing now may present an opportunity later.
Randwick is under fire from serious form analysts.It's proving very hard to lead here and while that may just be the way the recent races have panned out the suspicion is that the inside is a serious disadvantage.The rail is out 5m today but whether that's enough to even things up remains to be seen.
The better horses are slowly getting back to the track to begin their Spring campaigns.That complicates the analysis but it generally also produces opportunities.At the moment nothing currently stands out that I want to back but things may change later. If there are any bets today they will be sent via Twitter
Friday's UK Racing
Five UK flat meetings today,four turf and one all weather at Lingfield.
Musselburgh,Newmarket and Haydock post Good and Brighton Good to Firm this morning.A mild to warm day with little rain around should mean decent summer ground everywhere.
Opportunities have been thin on the ground so far this week and at this stage there is only one advised bet today.I'm interested in another two or three but not committed fully yet so any further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Musselburgh
Race 2
Viva Verglas is improving and his nursery win at York was a very gutsy effort as he'd raced on a hot pace and kept battling to get his head in front on the line.He gave upwards of a stone that day to Innocently who has franked the form winning at York subsequently.I think he'll be too fast for these and have him rated 1.80 but 2.20 is available now.
Advised Bet: Viva Verglas 2.75 units at 1.90 or better-take the 2.20 for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Musselburgh,Newmarket and Haydock post Good and Brighton Good to Firm this morning.A mild to warm day with little rain around should mean decent summer ground everywhere.
Opportunities have been thin on the ground so far this week and at this stage there is only one advised bet today.I'm interested in another two or three but not committed fully yet so any further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Musselburgh
Race 2
Viva Verglas is improving and his nursery win at York was a very gutsy effort as he'd raced on a hot pace and kept battling to get his head in front on the line.He gave upwards of a stone that day to Innocently who has franked the form winning at York subsequently.I think he'll be too fast for these and have him rated 1.80 but 2.20 is available now.
Advised Bet: Viva Verglas 2.75 units at 1.90 or better-take the 2.20 for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Thursday 8 August 2013
Thursday's UK Racing
The Racing Post haven't yet updated the going reports but with a dry day forecast I expect decent ground everywhere.Six flat meetings in the UK today which really is overkill and as usual most of the racing very moderate.It's better than earlier in the week though, albeit only narrowly.
When I first scanned the fields today I thought I would end up with a few bets.Unfortunately as I looked deeper my confidence began to evaporate with each one so at this stage there are no advised bets today.If the markets start to look a bit more attractive as the day wears on and I decide to back anything I will send details via Twitter
When I first scanned the fields today I thought I would end up with a few bets.Unfortunately as I looked deeper my confidence began to evaporate with each one so at this stage there are no advised bets today.If the markets start to look a bit more attractive as the day wears on and I decide to back anything I will send details via Twitter
Wednesday 7 August 2013
Wednesday's UK Racing
I've had a power outage here for a few hours .As a result I'm not getting involved today.
I like to have all the analysis done and finished by now and given the choice of starting now or giving it a miss I'm taking the lazy option.
Assuming there are no unforeseen events that screw up my schedule I'll be back tomorrow
I like to have all the analysis done and finished by now and given the choice of starting now or giving it a miss I'm taking the lazy option.
Assuming there are no unforeseen events that screw up my schedule I'll be back tomorrow
Monday 5 August 2013
Tuesday's UK Racing
Two afternoon & two evening cards today and overall very modest racing.Nothing looks likely to appeal at any stage today so happy to take another rest day.There's a bit more depth tomorrow so hopefully there will be some action then .
Weekly Round Up
A bit of a roller coaster week.Some of the analysis hopelessly off target and some right on the money.I had a chaotic family situation to deal with too so all in all I'm glad to have come through the week with a reasonable profit.There were some big swings in the market last week for a lot of the blog's selections and It's difficult to accurately record the results as the final SP often is very unrepresentative of what's been available earlier in the day.I understand that everyone doesn't have the opportunity to constantly monitor the Betfair prices as they fluctuate through the day but for me it's an essential part of getting an edge and staying ahead in a tough game.Winterlude which won for the blog on Saturday traded at over 10.0 on Betfair pre-race and returned an SP of 5.50.I managed an average price of 8.8 through constant monitoring but in fairness for settling the results I've shaved the price down to more accurately reflect what's generally achievable.Getting the best price is a major part of what I'm trying to do once the analysis has been done.Like anything you get better at it with experience but anyone punting seriously on the exchange really has to have some decent trading software otherwise your starting out at a considerable disadvantage.Mine costs me about $15 a month so there is no excuse for anyone betting not to have it.
Here's the breakdown for the week:
Australia Bets in 3 races-No winners
Stakes 4.00
Returns 0.00
LOSS 4.00
No Tweets
Australia Loss on week 4.0 units
UK Bets in 13 races -4 winners
Stakes 18.15
Returns 29.45
Profit 11.30
Tweets Bets in 5 races -1 winner
Stakes 7.55
Returns 7.00
Loss 0.55
UK Profit on week 10.75 units
Total for the week Profit 6.75 units
There plenty of rain around today so I'm taking a rest day.No bets today.Back tomorrow
Here's the breakdown for the week:
Australia Bets in 3 races-No winners
Stakes 4.00
Returns 0.00
LOSS 4.00
No Tweets
Australia Loss on week 4.0 units
UK Bets in 13 races -4 winners
Stakes 18.15
Returns 29.45
Profit 11.30
Tweets Bets in 5 races -1 winner
Stakes 7.55
Returns 7.00
Loss 0.55
UK Profit on week 10.75 units
Total for the week Profit 6.75 units
There plenty of rain around today so I'm taking a rest day.No bets today.Back tomorrow
Sunday 4 August 2013
Sunday Update
The track at Deauville appears to be just into the Dead range which is enough to stop me betting in the G1 there.The rain has begun to fall at Chester but only spitting at the moment.Heavy showers are possible as the afternoon goes on.
Any further bets today will be sent via Twitter
Any further bets today will be sent via Twitter
Sunday's UK Racing plus Deauville-Update follows later
Chester and Newbury plus the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deaville.
Newbury is Good and a dry day forecast so decent ground there.When I started doing the form for Chester overnight rain there looked very likely but it hasn't happened.So the going report is Good but with showers forecast.Looking at the radar the rain is due there just before the start of racing and it looks like a wet afternoon in prospect.I quite fancied my chances there if the ground was genuinely wet but now I want to see how the weather pans out.
The Racing Post has Deauville as Good but the Paris Turf has it Good to Soft but with a dry warm day forecast it will probably be Good by the time the G1 is run.Track conditions are crucial here today so I'll wait until the first couple of races have been run to make an assessment.
Deauville
Race 4
Lethal Force is advantaged by fast ground and Moonlight Cloud is advantaged by soft ground so I want to be sure it's pretty dry before backing Lethal Force.If it's dry I think he'll win but moisture in the ground will blunt his speed.I'll update the blog around 13.30 UK time and there should be more of an idea about the weather at Chester by then as there are real possibilities there if it's wet.
Newbury
Race 1
Amateurs race.This Samoan looks like a plan to me here.3 maiden runs never placed to challenge but a running on third last time.Gets a very lenient mark of 69.Brother to Oaks winner Dancing Rain and blinkers on first time.Owned by the Sangster family and ridden by Mr. O.R.J. Sangster claiming 7lb.This a very moderate race and if it's got any ability surely it'll beat these.It's drawn 1 and will settle back but there is plenty of speed upfront so it will get every chance to run on.
Advised Bet: Samoan 1.65 units at 3.25 or better-take the 5.0 now for 50% and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 4
Three improving fillies here in Songbird,Kikonga and Seal Of Approval.The market has Songbird favourite around 2.30 which looks a very short quote to me.I have very little between the three on my figures so I'm happy to back the other two and hope I can get Songbird beaten
Advised Bets: Kikonga 1.30 units at 4.20 or better-take the 6.50 for 70% and monitor on
Betfair with the balance.
Seal Of Approval 1.30 units at 4.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
Newbury is Good and a dry day forecast so decent ground there.When I started doing the form for Chester overnight rain there looked very likely but it hasn't happened.So the going report is Good but with showers forecast.Looking at the radar the rain is due there just before the start of racing and it looks like a wet afternoon in prospect.I quite fancied my chances there if the ground was genuinely wet but now I want to see how the weather pans out.
The Racing Post has Deauville as Good but the Paris Turf has it Good to Soft but with a dry warm day forecast it will probably be Good by the time the G1 is run.Track conditions are crucial here today so I'll wait until the first couple of races have been run to make an assessment.
Deauville
Race 4
Lethal Force is advantaged by fast ground and Moonlight Cloud is advantaged by soft ground so I want to be sure it's pretty dry before backing Lethal Force.If it's dry I think he'll win but moisture in the ground will blunt his speed.I'll update the blog around 13.30 UK time and there should be more of an idea about the weather at Chester by then as there are real possibilities there if it's wet.
Newbury
Race 1
Amateurs race.This Samoan looks like a plan to me here.3 maiden runs never placed to challenge but a running on third last time.Gets a very lenient mark of 69.Brother to Oaks winner Dancing Rain and blinkers on first time.Owned by the Sangster family and ridden by Mr. O.R.J. Sangster claiming 7lb.This a very moderate race and if it's got any ability surely it'll beat these.It's drawn 1 and will settle back but there is plenty of speed upfront so it will get every chance to run on.
Advised Bet: Samoan 1.65 units at 3.25 or better-take the 5.0 now for 50% and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 4
Three improving fillies here in Songbird,Kikonga and Seal Of Approval.The market has Songbird favourite around 2.30 which looks a very short quote to me.I have very little between the three on my figures so I'm happy to back the other two and hope I can get Songbird beaten
Advised Bets: Kikonga 1.30 units at 4.20 or better-take the 6.50 for 70% and monitor on
Betfair with the balance.
Seal Of Approval 1.30 units at 4.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
Saturday 3 August 2013
Goodwood-Day Five
Six UK flat meetings today.Four this afternoon and two this evening.With the exception of Hamilton all post Good or Good to Firm and drying conditions should produce good fast summer ground.Hamilton will probably be rain affected so will need monitoring.
I'll take on four races today in the blog and there are a couple more that are possibilities after I've monitored the weather and track conditions.Any further bets sent via Twitter.
Goodwood
Race 1
I'll stick with Picture Dealer of the same mark as last weeks cosy York win.I've got him 6.50 in a very open market and 8.0 is available which I think will go fast.
Advised Bet: Picture Dealer 0.80 units at 7.0 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now
Race 4
Again I'll stick with last weeks York scorer Tropics who is improving with each race.I also want the 3-y-o Ninjango on my side too as the fast pace here is tailor made for him to reproduce his Ascot Listed win earlier in the season.I have Tropics at 8.50 and Ninjango at 10.0
Advised Bets: Tropics 0.60 units at 9.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Ninjango 0.50 units at 10.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 7
Two against the field here.Holley Shiftwell is progressing very nicely and she is a point over my figures at the 5.0 on offer.Extrasolar has had a freshen since his good win here a month ago.He drops back a furlong but the strong pace will suit him and he's a live player here.My rating is 5.50
Advised Bets: Holley Shiftwell 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-take the 5.0 on offer for 70% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Extrasolar 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-monitor on Betfair
Doncaster
Race 4
All weather Wolverhampton maiden winners straight into competitive class 3 handicaps are not usually my style but I'll make an exception for the well related Winterlude.This one is potentially quite smart and the slight rise in trip is a plus.5.0 on my figures
Advised Bet: Winterlude 1 unit at 5.50 or better-monitor on Betfair currently around 6.50
I'll take on four races today in the blog and there are a couple more that are possibilities after I've monitored the weather and track conditions.Any further bets sent via Twitter.
Goodwood
Race 1
I'll stick with Picture Dealer of the same mark as last weeks cosy York win.I've got him 6.50 in a very open market and 8.0 is available which I think will go fast.
Advised Bet: Picture Dealer 0.80 units at 7.0 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now
Race 4
Again I'll stick with last weeks York scorer Tropics who is improving with each race.I also want the 3-y-o Ninjango on my side too as the fast pace here is tailor made for him to reproduce his Ascot Listed win earlier in the season.I have Tropics at 8.50 and Ninjango at 10.0
Advised Bets: Tropics 0.60 units at 9.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Ninjango 0.50 units at 10.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 7
Two against the field here.Holley Shiftwell is progressing very nicely and she is a point over my figures at the 5.0 on offer.Extrasolar has had a freshen since his good win here a month ago.He drops back a furlong but the strong pace will suit him and he's a live player here.My rating is 5.50
Advised Bets: Holley Shiftwell 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-take the 5.0 on offer for 70% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Extrasolar 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-monitor on Betfair
Doncaster
Race 4
All weather Wolverhampton maiden winners straight into competitive class 3 handicaps are not usually my style but I'll make an exception for the well related Winterlude.This one is potentially quite smart and the slight rise in trip is a plus.5.0 on my figures
Advised Bet: Winterlude 1 unit at 5.50 or better-monitor on Betfair currently around 6.50
Friday 2 August 2013
Moonee Valley & Rosehill Today
Moonee Valley posts a Dead 5 and it may dry out a bit before the forecast rain comes later in the afternoon.Rosehill is a Good 3 and a dry warmish day there so it can only dry further.
Moonee Valley
Race 3
The weights,the claim,the track and the prospect of a soft lead all point to The Cleaner being mighty hard to pass here.He was very dogged and game in defeat last time.2.80 on offer against my rating of 2.50
Advised Bet; The Cleaner 2 units at 2.60 or better-monitor on Betfair-average in
Race 6
Vizhaka gets the run of the race here.He was very brave at Flemington last time but Clanga's Glory was just too strong for him there.A 2.5kg pull and the likely advantage of first run lean me his way today.another prelate is very consistent but comes here off a four week break
Advised Bet: Vizhaka 1.35 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair and average in
Rosehill
Race 6
Under The Sun is a favourite of mine but he's got his work cut out here to cope with the proven G1 performer Bayrir who gets the luxury rating of 103 here.This horse went to the States and knocked off the G1 Secretariat Stakes before returning to France to run second in one of the major "Arc" trials.This is a Cox Plate contender on the evidence of what he has achieved to date.The money has come so expect him to be ready to fire
Advised Bet: Bayrir 1.65 units at 3.10 or better-monitor on Betfair it may drift out a bit,may not
Moonee Valley
Race 3
The weights,the claim,the track and the prospect of a soft lead all point to The Cleaner being mighty hard to pass here.He was very dogged and game in defeat last time.2.80 on offer against my rating of 2.50
Advised Bet; The Cleaner 2 units at 2.60 or better-monitor on Betfair-average in
Race 6
Vizhaka gets the run of the race here.He was very brave at Flemington last time but Clanga's Glory was just too strong for him there.A 2.5kg pull and the likely advantage of first run lean me his way today.another prelate is very consistent but comes here off a four week break
Advised Bet: Vizhaka 1.35 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair and average in
Rosehill
Race 6
Under The Sun is a favourite of mine but he's got his work cut out here to cope with the proven G1 performer Bayrir who gets the luxury rating of 103 here.This horse went to the States and knocked off the G1 Secretariat Stakes before returning to France to run second in one of the major "Arc" trials.This is a Cox Plate contender on the evidence of what he has achieved to date.The money has come so expect him to be ready to fire
Advised Bet: Bayrir 1.65 units at 3.10 or better-monitor on Betfair it may drift out a bit,may not
Goodwood-Day Four
Two afternoon and three evening flat fixtures today with Goodwood of course the highlight.
The advised bets are at Goodwood with a very strong chance of more via Twitter after I've seen what the rain patterns have done to the going at the evening fixtures.Goodwood posts Good,Good to Firm in places.They have had a shower or two this morning and I want to watch the first race there and see the time before I finalize completely what I'm doing there today so there may be more to come concerning here too.I try and get the "tweets"out in good time 10/15 mins before the off.
Goodwood
Race 2
The 2.60 plus has gone now about Monteridge but as I have him rated 1.90 here the 2.37 still available is very good value.Stall 2 is my only concern if he got cluttered away on the rail but with the peerless Hughes aboard I expect him to win
Advised Bet: Montiridge 2.60 units to win at 2.0 or better
Race 3
The presence at the top of the handicap of Tuesday's Galway winner Brendan Braken complicates things a bit.He seems to be best with cut but that was so emphatic a win that he's very hard to dismiss.I'm keen that my original view of this race that the 3-y-old's Cape Peron and Wentworth were the two to be on is correct but I think we have to save at least on Brendan.
Advised Bets: Cape Peron 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Wentworth 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Brendan Braken 0.20 units (saver) monitor on Betfair
The advised bets are at Goodwood with a very strong chance of more via Twitter after I've seen what the rain patterns have done to the going at the evening fixtures.Goodwood posts Good,Good to Firm in places.They have had a shower or two this morning and I want to watch the first race there and see the time before I finalize completely what I'm doing there today so there may be more to come concerning here too.I try and get the "tweets"out in good time 10/15 mins before the off.
Goodwood
Race 2
The 2.60 plus has gone now about Monteridge but as I have him rated 1.90 here the 2.37 still available is very good value.Stall 2 is my only concern if he got cluttered away on the rail but with the peerless Hughes aboard I expect him to win
Advised Bet: Montiridge 2.60 units to win at 2.0 or better
Race 3
The presence at the top of the handicap of Tuesday's Galway winner Brendan Braken complicates things a bit.He seems to be best with cut but that was so emphatic a win that he's very hard to dismiss.I'm keen that my original view of this race that the 3-y-old's Cape Peron and Wentworth were the two to be on is correct but I think we have to save at least on Brendan.
Advised Bets: Cape Peron 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Wentworth 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Brendan Braken 0.20 units (saver) monitor on Betfair
Thursday 1 August 2013
Goodwood-Day Three
Third day of the Goodwood meeting and three other flat meetings today.Expect all venues to dry out today from the morning going posts.Goodwood will be Good getting to Good to Firm perhaps as the day progresses.
Just two advised bets at this stage but a couple of other possibilities depending on developments and any further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Goodwood
Race 3
If Mount Athos is Melbourne Cup bound he'll struggle to be competitively handicapped there if he manages to win here today.The Melbourne Cup is $3 million or so to the winner whereas the Goodwood version pays out around $90,000.If the horse's long term plan is Melbourne will he be fit and raring to go today or just ticking over nicely until the weights are out?
Caucus knocked over Biographer last time and I think that's very strong two mile form.Most of these have had their time in the sun and I want to be with the young progressive sort here.I think he's no more than a 5.50 chance today so the current 7.50 is very appealing
Advised Bet: Caucus 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-take the 7.50 now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 7
Mean It has only seen ground with cut in it so the drying conditions coupled with his rider being relatively inexperienced may encourage layers to take him on a bit.He comes here of a ten week break but his two fresh runs have been his best and this is a very winnable race for him.He'll have to go back from a wide gate but there will be pace on aplenty here so he should get his chance.I've got him at 6.0 on my figures and 7.0 is available and more will surely be on offer on Betfair
Advised Bet: Mean It 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-monitor on Betfair and average in.
Just two advised bets at this stage but a couple of other possibilities depending on developments and any further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Goodwood
Race 3
If Mount Athos is Melbourne Cup bound he'll struggle to be competitively handicapped there if he manages to win here today.The Melbourne Cup is $3 million or so to the winner whereas the Goodwood version pays out around $90,000.If the horse's long term plan is Melbourne will he be fit and raring to go today or just ticking over nicely until the weights are out?
Caucus knocked over Biographer last time and I think that's very strong two mile form.Most of these have had their time in the sun and I want to be with the young progressive sort here.I think he's no more than a 5.50 chance today so the current 7.50 is very appealing
Advised Bet: Caucus 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-take the 7.50 now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 7
Mean It has only seen ground with cut in it so the drying conditions coupled with his rider being relatively inexperienced may encourage layers to take him on a bit.He comes here of a ten week break but his two fresh runs have been his best and this is a very winnable race for him.He'll have to go back from a wide gate but there will be pace on aplenty here so he should get his chance.I've got him at 6.0 on my figures and 7.0 is available and more will surely be on offer on Betfair
Advised Bet: Mean It 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-monitor on Betfair and average in.
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