Things started off well last week but fell away later. I actually had a very good week but that's not mirrored in what I sent out on the blog and "tweeted" through as I'm doing far more on the "lay" side of the exchange now than I am on the "back" side these days.
Here are last weeks figures:
UK & Int.
Nothing advised
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - bets in 5 races - 2 winners
Stakes 7.10
Profit 5.23
Bets advised via twitter - bets in 11 races - no winners
Stakes 11.90
Loss 11.90
Overall for the week Loss 6.62 units
YTD Figures
Stakes 475.30
Profit 75.06
POT 15.79%
I was very conscious on the last day of the Flemington Carnival that I am badly in need of a break.
I had planned to through November and have December off but my brains are beginning to scramble so this will be the last post this year. I've had a good year far better than these figures show as my bets have only accounted for 28% of this year's profits. Trading and laying on the exchange have provided the bulk of my earnings
At this point I think it unlikely that I will continue with the blog next year but I may change my mind after a decent break.
Sunday 9 November 2014
Friday 7 November 2014
Flemington Carnival - Day Four & Randwick
Flemington is upgraded to a Good 3 and it's a hot day there with a cool change forecast later. Strong hot northerly winds which are likely to turn around when the change comes.
Randwick is a Dead 4 but should upgrade as it's a dry warm day there.
A bad bout of "gastro" yesterday evening and I'm way behind as a result.
Seriously difficult card at Flemington and definitely no early bets there. May get involved as the day goes on but nothing stands out as a bet at this stage.
The card at Randwick looks more "punter friendly" and I've had one early bet there and another couple are likely as markets open up.
Randwick
Race 2
This looks very open but I thought Powerline's win at Warwick Farm was very dominant and he deserves a crack at Saturday grade. He's available at 8.50 and that looks a very fair offer. I have him at 6.0
Advised Bet: Powerline 0.85 at 6.20 or better-take the 8.50 with Bet 365 (SPG) also 8.50 with Sportsbet and Tatts.
Almost certainly more today and further bets/updates sent via Twitter
Randwick is a Dead 4 but should upgrade as it's a dry warm day there.
A bad bout of "gastro" yesterday evening and I'm way behind as a result.
Seriously difficult card at Flemington and definitely no early bets there. May get involved as the day goes on but nothing stands out as a bet at this stage.
The card at Randwick looks more "punter friendly" and I've had one early bet there and another couple are likely as markets open up.
Randwick
Race 2
This looks very open but I thought Powerline's win at Warwick Farm was very dominant and he deserves a crack at Saturday grade. He's available at 8.50 and that looks a very fair offer. I have him at 6.0
Advised Bet: Powerline 0.85 at 6.20 or better-take the 8.50 with Bet 365 (SPG) also 8.50 with Sportsbet and Tatts.
Almost certainly more today and further bets/updates sent via Twitter
Wednesday 5 November 2014
Flemington Carnival Day Three- Oaks Day
Some ultra competitive races today as you'd expect. Races 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 9 are all tricky puzzles to solve although some value at odds may show up as we get into the day.
Race 4
Beauty's Beast was a very weak favourite when running like an unfit horse at Caulfield last time. Expect him to be spot on today at his home track and be very hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Beauty's Beast 1.40 units at 3.75 or better- take the 4.00 with Bet 365 for 35% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 7
After Saturday when the inside looked a no go zone (Tuesday it looked to have evened out) you'd want to see what effect the watering has had before ploughing in early. Providing there looks to be no bias I think Angel's Beach will be very hard to roll. I'm not committed yet but I have her around 2.60 assuming it's a level playing surface.
Race 8 Oaks
Go Indy Go has the best figures and she will love the trip. She's the most likely winner for me and I've already backed her. There is still good value in her current price though. I have her rated at 3.00 and 4.80 is still available and she may trade a tad higher as markets open up.
Advised Bet: Go Indy Go 1.65 units at 3.20 or better - take the 4.80 with Bet 365 (SP Guarantee) for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
I missed getting Grand Marshal out in the tweet on Tuesday due to being distracted for 5 mins and being so busy. The price crashed pretty quickly having been around 5.50 on Betfair all morning.
Any further Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Race 4
Beauty's Beast was a very weak favourite when running like an unfit horse at Caulfield last time. Expect him to be spot on today at his home track and be very hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Beauty's Beast 1.40 units at 3.75 or better- take the 4.00 with Bet 365 for 35% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 7
After Saturday when the inside looked a no go zone (Tuesday it looked to have evened out) you'd want to see what effect the watering has had before ploughing in early. Providing there looks to be no bias I think Angel's Beach will be very hard to roll. I'm not committed yet but I have her around 2.60 assuming it's a level playing surface.
Race 8 Oaks
Go Indy Go has the best figures and she will love the trip. She's the most likely winner for me and I've already backed her. There is still good value in her current price though. I have her rated at 3.00 and 4.80 is still available and she may trade a tad higher as markets open up.
Advised Bet: Go Indy Go 1.65 units at 3.20 or better - take the 4.80 with Bet 365 (SP Guarantee) for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
I missed getting Grand Marshal out in the tweet on Tuesday due to being distracted for 5 mins and being so busy. The price crashed pretty quickly having been around 5.50 on Betfair all morning.
Any further Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Monday 3 November 2014
Flemington Carnival Day Two - Melbourne Cup Day
Dead 4 posted at Flemington and currently dry but with a narrow band of heavy rain moving in from the west and a lighter band of rain following it. Doubt it gets any worse than dead but depending on where it hits and in what quantity will determine if we are racing on good or worse. Monitor.
I dealt with the Cup in an earlier post and the for the advised bets I stick to the two at the best value.
Melbourne Cup
Advised Bets; Signoff 0.75 units at 7.0 or better and Protectionist 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-
Shop around for the best deal you can get
Other races of interest at Flemington today are
Race 2
Advised Bets: Khutulun 0.85 units at 6.0 or better and Precious Gem 0.85 units at 6.0 or better
Race 3
Grand Marshall of interest here -not committed yet
Race 4
The Quarterback of interest here
Race 5
Not betting here
Race 6
Not betting here
Race 8
Stipulate and Quayside of interest here
Race 9
Target In Sight of interest here
Race 10
Rose Of Choice of interest here
Updates and Bets advised via Twitter
I dealt with the Cup in an earlier post and the for the advised bets I stick to the two at the best value.
Melbourne Cup
Advised Bets; Signoff 0.75 units at 7.0 or better and Protectionist 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-
Shop around for the best deal you can get
Other races of interest at Flemington today are
Race 2
Advised Bets: Khutulun 0.85 units at 6.0 or better and Precious Gem 0.85 units at 6.0 or better
Race 3
Grand Marshall of interest here -not committed yet
Race 4
The Quarterback of interest here
Race 5
Not betting here
Race 6
Not betting here
Race 8
Stipulate and Quayside of interest here
Race 9
Target In Sight of interest here
Race 10
Rose Of Choice of interest here
Updates and Bets advised via Twitter
Melbourne Cup 2014
It's dry in Melbourne on the eve of the Cup. Chance of a little rain tomorrow and a cool change is forecast for late afternoon bringing very strong wind gusts. If it arrives earlier then it may be a factor especially if it brings rain as well. At this stage though it looks like good decent ground.
Overseas runners and imported stayers plus the constricted weight scale have dramatically altered this race over the last dozen years. It's a handicap of course but only genuinely high class horses win these days and two thirds of the field are impossible to fancy at all if your a serious form analyst.
I'm not emphatic about any particular horse this year but I think it's odds on the winner comes from a batch of five runners. That presents a real punting opportunity if you shop around and get the best offerings available. If you choose three of the serious hopes and save on the other two you should average around 2.00 your stake and that's a very attractive proposition as the true odds are nearer to 1.65. I know that doesn't sound a very attractive proposition to the majority of punters but that's probably how I'll play it. Anyone of these five is "overs" at their overnight quotes although Lucia Valentina and Fawkner are only marginally so on my figures.
My top five in order are:
Signoff- 51kg's and the best is yet to come-peaks perfectly and has the momentum
Protectionist- unexposed and terrific trial run-almost certainly better than bare form reads
Admire Rakti- Caulfield Cup the best trial and strong winner-only a 0.5kg penalty
Lucia Valentina- Equal of winner in Caulfield Cup. May need luck from gate getting clear passage
Fawkner- Good from hopeless position last year-second Cox Plate and sure to be thereabouts
Outside these Who Shot The Barman may still have scope to do better and My Ambivalent has a very good fresh record and would be a serious contender had she not had an interrupted preparation and a query at the trip.
Overseas runners and imported stayers plus the constricted weight scale have dramatically altered this race over the last dozen years. It's a handicap of course but only genuinely high class horses win these days and two thirds of the field are impossible to fancy at all if your a serious form analyst.
I'm not emphatic about any particular horse this year but I think it's odds on the winner comes from a batch of five runners. That presents a real punting opportunity if you shop around and get the best offerings available. If you choose three of the serious hopes and save on the other two you should average around 2.00 your stake and that's a very attractive proposition as the true odds are nearer to 1.65. I know that doesn't sound a very attractive proposition to the majority of punters but that's probably how I'll play it. Anyone of these five is "overs" at their overnight quotes although Lucia Valentina and Fawkner are only marginally so on my figures.
My top five in order are:
Signoff- 51kg's and the best is yet to come-peaks perfectly and has the momentum
Protectionist- unexposed and terrific trial run-almost certainly better than bare form reads
Admire Rakti- Caulfield Cup the best trial and strong winner-only a 0.5kg penalty
Lucia Valentina- Equal of winner in Caulfield Cup. May need luck from gate getting clear passage
Fawkner- Good from hopeless position last year-second Cox Plate and sure to be thereabouts
Outside these Who Shot The Barman may still have scope to do better and My Ambivalent has a very good fresh record and would be a serious contender had she not had an interrupted preparation and a query at the trip.
Sunday 2 November 2014
October Round Up
A very modest overall profit in October with a 9.00 unit profit on the UK & International bets and a loss of 7.46 in Australia. Here's the breakdown:
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 3.70
Profit 2.70 units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 6 races - 2 winners
Stakes 5.40
Profit 6.70 units
UK & Int. total for October PROFIT 9.00 units
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - berts advised in 11 races - 1 winner
Stakes 13.40
Loss 6.37units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 16 races - 3 winners
Stakes 18.10
Loss 1.09 units
Australia total for October LOSS 7.46 units
Total for October Overall PROFIT 1.54 units
Year to date figures:
Stakes 456.30
Profit 81.68 units
POT 17.90%
Melbourne Cup tommorrow so back then
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 3.70
Profit 2.70 units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 6 races - 2 winners
Stakes 5.40
Profit 6.70 units
UK & Int. total for October PROFIT 9.00 units
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - berts advised in 11 races - 1 winner
Stakes 13.40
Loss 6.37units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 16 races - 3 winners
Stakes 18.10
Loss 1.09 units
Australia total for October LOSS 7.46 units
Total for October Overall PROFIT 1.54 units
Year to date figures:
Stakes 456.30
Profit 81.68 units
POT 17.90%
Melbourne Cup tommorrow so back then
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