Flemington & Rosehill on New Years Day

Happy New Year!

Flemington is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade and expect fast ground.Good card but I cannot find any value for you there today looking at the early markets.

Rosehill is a Good 3 and dry conditions so again expect good fast Summer racing ground.


Race 6  Darci Be Good ran very well in the Villiers.He was wide without cover but battled on in solid style to hang on to third.Highly Recommended ran on soundly for sixth in that race and the extra trip probably helps him today.The early markets have him favourite but I think Darci ought to be.Monton is a likeable horse but 2000m is new territory for him and far from certain to suit.I'm over Moriarty and happy to oppose him.I've got Darci Be good favourite on my figures at 3.6 so happy to play here with 4.80 currently on offer.

Race 8  Lot's of non runners here.City Of Light is favourite in early markets at 2.70 which is too short to me.I marginally prefer both Carmine King and Inventive in that order.The runner that looks big overs is Muchacho.He's won 6 from 11 admittedly most lately on the Acton track in Canberra but with Lester Grace's claim he only has 52.5 kg's.He's available at 17.0 in one place and 14.0 generally.My figures have him at 8.0 so happy to speculate at odds here.


Advised Bets

Rosehill  Race 6    Darci Be Good   1.40 units to win @ 3.80 or better. (take the 4.80 available            generally now)

Rosehill  Race 8    Muchacho   0.65 units to win @ 9.0 or better ( take the 14.0 generally available now )

Merry Christmas

To every one who has been following the blog since it started in October whether regularly or occasionally -thank you for your interest and a very Merry and Safe Christmas to all of you.
There will be no more blogs this year as I'm having some quality time away with my Daughter.
The blogs has shown excellent profits each month to date and I'll be back with a round up of all that and a look at the racing on New Years Day.
Until then,enjoy yourselves and if you can't be good then at least be careful

Max

Villiers Day

Villiers day at Warwick Farm and expect the track to ride fast.

Race 6   Suspect Cabernet may just have benefitted from the run in the Festival Stakes a fortnight ago.She didn't have the clearest of passages there either so all in all it was a very satisfactory trial for today.Plenty of hopes here but happy to be with this mare today.8.0 is still available I have her at 6.50

Race 7  Thought Disciple ran very well last time after being wide in the run.Kept coming there and confirmed the strong impression from his first run back that he is an improved horse this prep.Good gate today can see him settle fairly handy and the extra trip is a real plus.4.20 available and I have him a rock solid 3.50 chance


Flemington is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3.

Race 5   Valrouz battled on well last time in a race where there was plenty of pressure up front.Gets a nice run on the speed here and doubt the step up to 1400m is a negative.He'll have first run on Quicksilver Lass and Perfectly Stunning.Benenden is a hope but this is tougher than last time when everything went perfectly.Valrouz is available at 7.0 and my rating here is 5.0.

Race 8  Al Aneed struck me as a Carnival horse earlier in the Spring.He refused to settle in the Carbine Club and again in the Sandown Guineas so his effort to finish fifth in the latter was all in all very creditable.I like the 5 week freshen up and reverting to a sprint trip.No need to fight him here just let him run.The juicy odds have gone now but 7.0 is still available and that is still too big.I have him at 5.50.

Advised Bets

Warwick Farm     Race 6   Cabernet  0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (take the 8.0 available now)

                             Race 7   Disciple   1.45 units to win at 3.70 or better (take the 4.20 available now)

Flemington          Race 5   Valrouz     1 unit to win at 5.50 or better (take the 7.0 available now)

                            Race  8   Al Aneed  0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better ( take the 7.0 available now)

Moonee Valley and Canterbury Tonight

Two metropolitan evening meetings to go at tonight.

Competitive meeting at Canterbury and a decent midweek card all in all.Expect good fast racing ground.Hard to steer you into anything from early markets.There were a few of interest here but the odds on offer are similar to my figures so there is no obvious value at this stage.

Moonee Valley backs up again after putting on what must have been the worst metro meeting ever held in Victoria last night.It's a bit better tonight and I have 3 races there that I'm interested in at this stage.It's posted a Dead 4 but expect an upgrade to a Good 3.

Race 1  Three realistic hopes here Adbaan,Evens and Perfect Offering.Adbaan is around 3.50 in early markets and I think this too short.I have her 4.5.Perfect offering is around evens as I type this and again I think that is shorter than she should be.I have her at 2.65.Evens is the one that interests me.She will be ahead off Perfect Offering in the run here and may well have won at Caulfield last time had she not rolled into the worst ground under pressure.I have her at 3.10 and I think you'll get 3.50 on Betfair if you shop around.This race will be very tactical and Evens has Rawiller riding and no jockey is riding better in Australia at the moment.

Race 6  Competitive race with a few chances but the one at odds is Point Made.Lightly raced ex UK horse who improved at Warnambool last time and may improve again tonight especially over this longer trip.Drawn to get a nice trail here.The 9.0 has gone but 8.0 is still available.I rate this a 6.0 chance.

Race 7  I'm taking a view here that Point Made's win at Warnambool was a better effort than the markets are currently rating it.Third there was Chicago Miss who looks a live hope here especially with the 3kg claim and the slight drop back in trip.13.0 on offer is overs against my figure of 8.0.


Advised Bets

M.V    Race 1   Evens 1.60 units to win at 3.30 or better.Shop around on Betfair here and try                                          to get set at 3.50+

M.V.   Race  6   Point Made 0.85 units to win at 7.0 or better (take the 8.0 available now) 

M.V.   Race 7    Chicago Miss  0.65 units to win at 9.0 or better (take the 13.0 available now)

ATC meeting at Gosford today

Tough and dissapointing Wednesday meeting at Mornington today so we'll pass there and go to the ATC meeting at Gosford which will be racing on good fast ground.

Race 2  No speed on paper here which complicates things.The step up to 1600m should suit Spurtonic but he raced off the speed when winning nicely last time at Newcastle where he looked suited by the big track.He's a Waterhouse horse so he may go forward here today.He's short at 1.85 I think although I think he is the most likely winner.Brannickers was sound enough last time for me not to sack her just yet.My figures here are 2.30 Spurtonic and 3.0 Brannickers so I've taken the 3.50 Brannickers.

Race 5  Excellent Point has been very good behind Pentasia in Saturday grade on his last 2 runs.Carmine King was also very good resuming and the extra 100m here will suit him.Forster has been backed but his reputation is stronger than his form at the moment and I'm happy to oppose him here.I have Excellent Point favourite here at 3.60 marginally over Carmine King at 3.80 whilst the current market has them the other way around.I'm on Excellent Point at 4.40 for 50% of my stake and I'll shop around with the rest.

Advised Bets

Gosford  Race 2    Brannickers 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better (take the 3.50 available now)

Gosford  Race 5    Excellent Point  1.40 units to win at 3.80 or better ( take the 4.40 available now for 50% of the stake and monitor market on Betfair and try and shop for better with the other 50%)

Flemington and Rosehill Today

Flemington posted a Dead 4 and with thundery showers around it's difficult to gauge what we are likely to be dealing with as the day progresses.Uncertainty about track conditions complicate what is a very difficult card.Nothing stands out value wise here looking at early markets.

Rosehill is a Good 3 and with dry conditions it will be fast ground.Again it's a difficult card and value is hard to find so it's going to be just one advised bet only today.

Race 6  Cantonese is a war horse and is hard to beat here.I thought he'd drop away last week after such tough run but he kept fighting on and was only beaten less than a length.He either leads or tracks Fiumicino here.He has Cassidy on board and I think he is the perfect jockey for this horse.He's had a hard tough campaign and there is a chance that he's had enough but he's clearly still the one to beat here.I rate him 3.0 and 3.50 is available.They may bet better so I am having 50% at 3.50 and shopping around on Betfair with the other 50%.
 
Advised bets

Rosehill Race 6    Cantonese 1.65 units to win @ 3.20 or better (take 50% @ the 3.50 available now and shop around with the other 50%)

Caulfield and Canterbury Today

Caulfield is posted a Dead 4 but expect a Good 3.I can't advise anything here today from early markets-it's looks very trappy.I thought Aliyana in Race 3 looked overs at 4.40 earlier but that has gone now and the lack of pace in this race worries me so I'm staying out.

Canterbury is a Good 3 and even with a few showers about I doubt it will affect that reading.
Another very tricky card to deal with.

Race 2  I thought Pipette looked reluctant last time so maybe the blinkers will work today.She has Rawiller replacing the claimer so she'll get plenty of encouragement from the saddle.Can't back her though at 1.95 but don't really want to oppose either.Retort Courteous is the very obvious alternative.

Race 6  Soros heads the market at around 2.80.He's better with some juice in the ground and he's dropping back in trip so he looks vulnerable to me.King's Dominion is second choice around 3.20 and this race is his for the taking but I think he's become ungenuine.He'll get his own way out in front but he's looked very suss at the business end to me.Both of these are genuine Saturday class horses taking on provincial types but both have strong negatives attached.I haven't decided on a strategy here yet.

Race 7  I've taken the 5.0 about Brannickers here.She has shortened with a few of the bookies but 5.0 is still available if you shop around.I have her at 4.0 here.She probably should have won at Scone last time and the winner there has run ok in town.She's got plenty of scope to do better and this is not a strong race.She's a 3-y-o filly taking on mares so that is a concern but I'm happy to play at these odds.


Advised bets

Canterbury  Race 7    Brannickers  1.25 units to win @ 4.20 or better  (take the 5.0 available now)

Caulfield and Rosehill Today

Computer problems this morning have me playing catch up so I'll be brief.

Caulfield

Expect fast racing ground.Competitive card and very tough generally.

Race 7   I've been playing "Devil's Advocate"for the last 48 hours  finding reasons not to back Spacecraft here.He never wins,goes best at the Valley,been up for ages etc.Fact is he was terrific last time,get's a soft lead here,has the best form,loves it fast and most of the opposition is hard to fancy.At 4.20 he is overs-I cannot get him longer than 3.20.I'll feel a total prat if it get's beat but I'm backing it.

Rosehill

It's a good card for Summer but it's hard to be definitive early doors about a lot of the races.I'd like to back Cabernet in the Festival Stakes but suspect the Villiers in a fortnight is the plan so I'll probably sit it out.

Race 8  Speed is mad here.Riva De Lago is a good fresh horse and has his first go for the Waller yard.This race should be set up for him to finish over the top of them.Had a trial so hopefully is ready but this stable is very hard to read.Monitor betting here.Currently 4.50 which is ok if it's ready.If it blows pass.

Advised Bets

Caulfield  Race 7   Spacecraft  1.50 units to win @ 3.50 or better (take the 4.20 for 50% of stake and shop on Betfair with other 50%)

Rosehill  Race 8    Riva De Lago  1.35 units to win @ 3.70 or better but monitor market-if drifts over 5.50 at post time No Bet

Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight

Double header of evening racing so plenty of action.At this time of the year we're high on quantity and sadly lacking in quality.
It's been a tough week and I've made a couple of poor decisions in leaving a couple of winners that I really should have backed.Let's see if things can be evened up a little this evening.

Moonee Valley 
Posted as a Dead 4 but expect a Good 3 sooner rather than later.

Race 6  Vizhaka is a horse on the up.Races handy from a good gate.Odds may look cramped but I rate him 1.90.

Race 8  Most Husbands is better than these.He's already been backed but you don't need to have much on to rattle the early markets on Friday nights.He's resuming so we're guessing a little as to fitness.I have him at 5.0 so the 7.0 that is still available is still ok


Canterbury

Expect good fast racing ground .

Race 5   Reunite looks the one here down in the weights from a good gate.Runs off a rating of 61 which looks too lenient.I rate him a 3.30 chance and 4.20 is available

Race 6   Caprossa appeals as the value here.Still improving this one and tracks the speed and gets the last crack at them here.I have her at 4.80 but 6.50 is currently available


Advised Bets

M.V  Race 6        Vizhaka  2.50 units to win @ 2.10 or better

          Race 8        Most Husbands   1 unit to win @ 5.0 or better (take the 7.0)

Cant   Race 5       Reunite   1.55 units to win @3.50 or better (take the 4.20)

           Race 6      Caprossa   1.05 units to win @ 5.0 or better (take the 6.50)

Warrnambool Today

Average sort of card at Warrnambool today.Track is posted a Dead 4 but I'm expecting it to be a Good 3 as the day progresses.
A couple that interest me today and both of them are mares.

Race 6  Lionhearted Girl has been dominant in her last two starts.This is harder than last time but she
still looks well handicapped to me with 52kg's after the claim.Expect her to lead and be hard to run down.I have evaluated her at 3.70 but 4.60 is available in early markets.

Race 8  Chicago Miss was very brave last time after a tough wide run on speed in a helter skelter affair.She's improving and today she should get a soft run trailing the speed.Looks hard to beat.

Today's Bets

W'Bool Race 6      Lionhearted Girl    1.35 units to win

W'Bool Race 8      Chicago Miss         1.75 units to win @ 3.0 or better

Caulfield and Warwick Farm Today

Apologies for no blogs this week but I've been busy updating computers and systems and it's been one hiccup after another.All done now and just a case of getting used to it.In truth it's been very average racing this week and I've only turned over a fraction of what I would in a normal week.Today is a bit thin on value too.
The blog had a very good Spring with last Saturday's 3 winners topping things of nicely.From today we are into Summer and I'll be giving selections with prices and staking from now on.Stakes will be set assuming a 100 point bank and we'll see how long it takes to double the bank.

At Caulfield the track is posted as a Dead 4 but may upgrade although when Sam Hyland walked it he reported it having decent give and that the inside was likely to chop out as the day progresses.With that in mind I am watching how this track plays today.A couple I was possible about here have low draws so I am passing on this meeting as far as early advice is concerned.

Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and with temperatures in the 30's don't expect any downgrade there even if they get a thundery shower or two.

Race 2   Office Bearer looked good winning at Moonee Valley last time and he'll be very hard to beat here.Evens is overs according to my figures (1.70) but he has had to travel up from Melbourne in the baking heat so that does make me cautious.Maybe he travelled up a few days ago.Probably pass here.

Race 4  If Moriarty can see out the 2200m trip he'll be hard to hold out here.The evidence is a tad conflicting as he looked suss at the trip on his penultimate start over 1900m then got home strongly last week over 2000m.I'll take the risk and I'll take the 2.70.

Race 8  I think there are 3 serious chances here.Disciple,Mecir and King's Dominion.I'm not overly keen on King's Dominion's attitude so that leaves us with the other 2.Disciple looked an improved horse when resuming when he was most unlucky.This is no harder and 4.6 is good shopping against my 3.70.Mecir ran well in a stronger race last week and the extra ground may help him here.he's the early favourite around 3.80 which is a tad too short for me.I think Disciple should be favourite.

Today's Bets

Warwick Farm Race 4    Moriarty 2 points win @ 2.70

Warwick Farm Race 8    Disciple 1.35 points win @ 4.60

Railway Stakes Day in Perth

Western Australian racing has it's premier day with the running of the Railway Stakes today.Last year it disgraced itself with the parochial decision to disqualify the first past the post Kiwi raider He's Remarkable and award the race to the local Lucky Gray.Terrible day that was for the credibility of racing in WA and hopefully some lessons have been learnt from it.
Lucky Gray is back again this year as favourite at around 4.50.With a full 5kg's more on his back this year he makes absolutely no appeal at all at those odds and I will be looking to lay him.Wall Street ran well last time in the Emirates and although gate 16 is horrible 14.0 is a generous quote and worth a small interest.

The other G1 (there not really G1's are they?) is the Winterbottom Stakes.The emerging WA sprinters Barakey and Travinator head the market at 2.60 and 4.80 respectively.Both look far too short and they may carve each other up out front.Much more appealing is Pinwheel at 9.0 whose fourth in this year's Stradbroke under 56kg's looks terrific form for this.Massive overs this one.I have him 4.50.

Earlier in the WA Guineas Academus looks hardest to beat.The 5.50 is gone now but at 4.40 there is still some cream left.I have him 3.70.He'll stalk the pace and pounce at the furlong and the other main fancies will be conceeding first run.

At Moonee Valley (expect upgrade to Good 3) today it's a tough card  and we have to wait until the last for a value runner.Follonica is tough genuine and consistent.She races handy and has a good gate.The claim helps and the rider is underated.7.50 is available ( I got matched at 8.40 on Betfair for a bit) and I rate her a 5.50 chance.Stacey Lee is the one I fear most.

Better card this week in Sydney (Rosehill,Good 3) and 2 races there I like the shape of:-

Race 3  Cantonese should lead unchallenged.He's still improving and providing he isn't feeling the effects of a long tough campaign should be involved again.Soros is a big chance too and I have them both at 3.50.The 5.0 has gone about Cantonese now but he is still some value at 4.00.Soros is a little short at 2.90 in my opinion.

Race 8  I like Pentasia here back a 100m to 1100m.She leads here and will take some pegging back.She is 5.50 and I rate her 4.0.Choice Words has trialled well but she looks too short to me at 2.70.Mercir looks the other hope

Warrnambool today

Fair programme today at Warrnambool.
Posted Dead 4 but will probably upgrade to a Good 3 as the afternoon progresses.
Only one race I have a strong opinion about today.

Race 6  Very keen on Run Diego here.He was excellent at Flemington and this is easier.He is still progressive and makes plenty of appeal here from a good barrier.I rate him a rock solid 2.50 and 3.0 is available in early markets.

Sale Today

Modest stuff today at Sale.
Early markets are up and some favourites that look way too short to me.

Race 5  I have little between Ametsis and Phantom Brew on my figures both around 4.0.Ametsis has come up around even money with bookies so I'll be looking to lay her here.Looks quite a trappy race to me.

Race 6  Hot Power is a top priced 2.20 in early markets.My ratings are Hot Power 3.60 Frantic 4.10
Now and Zen 4.60 Ivory Cross 9.0 .Favourite far too short with bookies in my opinion.

Race 7  Looks very open.My figures are 6.0 the field.Hidden Message is 3.30 with the books and Nassarius is  3.70.Both look big unders to me.

Playing on the lay side of the exchange today obviously!

Zipping Classic Day

Zipping Classic Day at Melbourne's Sandown Hillside track.Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to a Good 3.Good card but vary hard to find any value.Opportunities may develop as the day progresses but at the moment early markets look very tight and I can make no suggestions.I'll be concentrating on the "lay" side of the exchange today I expect.
Sydney racing continues to serve up unattractive programs.It's hard to enthuse about anything there today.
Sorry there is nothing today but I only suggest what I believe to be value.Today I cannot find any.

Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight

It's been very mediocre racing so far this week but things pick up tonight.The Moonee Valley card is very good considering we are the week after Flemington.Track rated a Dead 4 but it's dry in Melbourne so a Good 3 is a distinct possibility.

Race 1  Hollywood Gothic is well up to winning one of these city maidens.He started slowly last time which is a worry round here and they may not go that hard in this.Unexposed 4-y-o's are well in weight wise in these maidens only having to give 1.5kg to the 3-y-o's.His debut run was very good for race like this and last time he dropped back to 1000m and bombed the start.He'll be flying home late. No early markets here but he's decent odds on early totes.Need around 4.0 to be interested here because of the start he will be giving.

Race 3  I missed the 2.80 about Conferre with the bookies but got a bit matched on Betfair.It's a Mares race so an element of caution needed but she is racing really well and still improving.I rate her 2.20 here

Race 6 Very keen on Tigress Joy here.She has always promised to be a good horse but there have been some issues.Has returned very well this prep and was really dominant at Ballarat last time.4.0 plus available and my rating is 3.20

Race 7 No early markets here.One or two that could improve a lot here.Fringed was very good against the older horses last time and the drop back a 100m is no negative.Will go forward here.If he's 5.0 or better I might be tempted.Office Bearer won his maiden like a good horse but the form doesn't amount to much on paper.

Race 8  Meteor Shower was run down close home here last time in a similar event.That was a PB and from gate 1 can get an easier lead here tonight.No early markets but my rating is 5.50 and I think much better than that will be available.

At Canterbury it's a very trappy card.Posted a Good 3 but rain around Sydney may see it in the Dead range.

Race 7 Favourite here is Uate at around 2.0.There is little speed in this and Uate usually get's back.He's hard to win with and is silly odds.Shanghai Bund should either lead or sit second-he's had two trials to prepare-he may ideally need further but 1250m first up is fine.I have him 4.0 but he's available at 9.0.

Racing On The Ropes

The Australian media led chiefly by Fairfax Newspapers and the ABC have the knives out for Australian Racing.With allegations of "race fixing", "smart drug use"and of star jockey Damien Oliver seemingly admitting to betting against his mount to the tune of $10,000 racing has had all the "wrong" publicity through the Spring Carnival.With the ABC running a story tonight about ex racehorses being auctioned off for slaughter and the almost certainty that there are more damning allegations waiting to be aired racing is on the ropes.
Australian Racing is awash with money but the people administering the sport spend it like a "drunken sailor".Today's AJC meeting at Hawksbury began with a 4 runner race for 2-y-o's, 3 of which were from the same stable.Prize money for this "egg and spoon" affair was $35,000.If you work in retail,hospitality or a racing stable that's about what you'd earn after tax for dragging your arse out of bed and going to work full time for a whole year.The racing fraternity may not like that comparison being highlighted but it illustrates how inflated the prize money levels have become at the expense of other areas of racing that are hopelessly neglected.
Unfortunately there is little hope of much change anytime soon with the vested interests that benefit from the status quo ensuring that all appointees to positions of power are committed to carrying on much as usual.Meanwhile, racing here will continue is slow but steady decline.
Spectacular event in Queensland this morning with a full Solar Eclipse.Palm Cove Beach where I am fortunate to live was thronged with visitors from around the globe.At daybreak there was such heavy cloud cover that the whole thing looked in danger of happening unseen but the clouds broke around 25 minutes before the full eclipse.Truly a breathtaking experience and I feel very lucky to have witnessed it.

Flemington Final Day

Final Day of Flemington's Spring Carnival and the track rating this morning is a Dead 5.Expect an upgrade to a Dead 4 at least and the possibility that we could get to a Good 3 later.
Bookies have had a bonanza carnival.They were well ahead going into Oaks Day and with only two winners on Thursday starting below 8/1 they extended their lead.
Followers of this blog also extended their lead this Spring with General Truce getting home at juicy odds (advised at 20.0,rated 9.50 and SP 17.0).
Today is very tough.Very hard to find value in the earlier races with markets looking very tight.
The Emirates (race 6) is as tight a handicap as you will ever see.Numerous hopes but nothing appeals here as a solid bet.
Patinack Farm (race 5) I favour Sea Siren and Mental here but there is no fat in the odds available so again I'll probably sit this out.
I'd like to oppose Galah at 2.5 in race 3 but I cannot make a credible case for anything else bar Morant who will be out the back in a race of little pace so no play here.
Matriarch Stakes (race 7) Silent Achiever is odds on in early markets.Dominic Beirne who does the Betfair preview for the Carnival races suggest that she is unders and is a "lay" at evens or less.I have her at 1.60.Allowing for this being a Mares race I like to see some solid overs before getting involved as they can be dodgy races betting wise.She is drifting out on Betfair this morning (now 1.92) and has come up 2.30 plus on the totes so it looks like some odds against is going to be available at some stage.At 2.0 or better I am betting very confidently here.
Queen Elizabeth Stakes (race 8) Puissance De Lune bolted up in the Bendigo Cup and is favourite here at 2.90.That is shorter than the 3.50 I rate him.Shahwardi is 5.0 and I have him at 3.50 too.Shahwardi was a comfortably winner of the G2 Herbert Power Stakes on his only Australian start.Drops to G3 here and the extra 400m is in his favour.Looks a solid bet to me.

Flemington Oaks Day

The Cup on Tuesday produced a handsome profit with Green Moon paying $22.50 on the Victorian TAB against my rated price of 12.0.As predicted here there was no early pace at all and those midfield or worse never had any hope.
Luca Cumani's desperate luck in this event continued with Ryan Moore failing to take full advantage of Mount Athos' good gate and position handier to the speed.He was flying home and almost certainly should have been the winner.Both horses were good results for me so no real complaints here.
Readers of this blog  were also steered into Dunaden in the Caulfield Cup and Ocean Park in the Cox Plate.The Spring is going well so far so let's see if the gains can be consolidated.
Bookmaker's are still well in front after two days of the Flemington Carnival with three winners on Tuesday starting at 20.0 plus.
Oaks day today and as is the norm the "highlight" is a modest contest really.Not many Australian horses are suited to a 2500m trip early in their 3-y-o careers (or later for that matter!) so your left guessing stamina wise.
Zydeco and Dear Demi stand out clearly form wise with Zydeco the clear top pick after a slashing win on Saturday.I think she will probably run 2500m but don't want to take 2.25 to find out.I'd need 2.60 plus to be tempted and that's not looking likely so it's probably a no bet race for me.
Expect fast racing ground again despite a few showers forecast I doubt any rain that falls will enough to make much difference.Dead 4 posted this morning but expect the upgrade sooner rather than later.
It's a tricky card but there are a few that appeal as value at decent odds.

Race 2  Pelicano makes some appeal here.1800m second up looks ideal and ground perfect.Tricky gate is a concern but I rate him 6.0 and 8.50 is available although early markets are at 120% plus so shop carefully.

Race 3  Mares race so not super confident but doubt there are many that can actually win this under the weight conditions.I like Serene Star as the most likely winner.Doubt she'll be cluttered up from Gate 1 the way the straight track has raced this week but bookies may see it as a negative.I have her rated 4.50 and she is 5.80 now on Betfair which is ok but 6.0 plus may become available later maybe not.Keep monitoring the price.

Race 5  I suspect Specter has been set for this race.Wish he'd drawn a better gate but he has J. Cassidy to steer so hopefully he can find a good spot up close to the speed.Some luck needed here but expect 7.0 plus to be available against my rating of 5.50.

Race 8  Speed will be on here.General Truce is huge overs. I have him at 9.50 and there is 20.0 available on Betfair and 18.0 with the bookies.Big run last time when wide throughout at Moonee Valley and parks behind the hot speed here and has the last crack.Tough race but happy we'll get a good run here.

Race 9 Most of these would be "ideally"suited by a bit of cushion in the track including the first four in the betting although they all can win on fast ground.Flashback to a year ago and It's Prince obliged here at 40.0.Goes forward from a wide gate in a race with no obvious pace and perhaps control's the race.Loves fast ground.Speculative but 30.0 Betfair 25.0 with the books is overs.I rate him 14.0 

Flemington Melbourne Cup Day

Bookies clearly won round one of the Flemington Carnival with Derby day producing a couple of 40/1 winners in G 1 races.
Punter's get a sound racing surface to play on again today (currently Dead 4 but expect an early upgrade to Good 3) but are faced with a very challenging card and many races have a too hard look about them.
I dealt with the Cup last night but just to reiterate I have Mount Athos favourite at 6.00.He touched 8.8 on Betfair before I want to bed last night but no surprise to see the UK punters force him back into 7.6 overnight.Mourayan is huge overs at 32.0 I may have him too short at 10.0 but he gets a great run here and is very live hope.He was my clear top pick last year but was scratched on the morning of the race.Ethiopia is underated and clear value at 27.0 I rate him at 15.0.Green Moon is 19.50 against my 12.0 and Lights Of Heaven is 20.0 my rating is 15.0.
I have backed Magnier in race 5.I rate him 3.60 and there is still some 4.20 available.Back to the 1000m suits him here and pretty keen he'll be involved today.
Race 3 is tough but I will be having a little on Verdant.Fast ground today is a big plus for him as is the drop back to 2800m.I have him 5.0 and you'll shop much better than that closer to post time.
Race 4 is trappy mares race but Steps In Time has got out too far with 9.0 on offer against my rating of 5.50.She will need a good ride from the wide gate but has J Cassidy riding and is worth chancing at the overs.
Race 6.Angelic Light is going really well but she has a tricky gate here and is likely to be posted wide so a good ride is needed.Benenden in constrast gets an ideal gate and is improving fast.8.0 is good value against my rating of 5.50.I may save on Angelic Light if she gets out around 4.0.
Other races are very competitive and nothing stands out as outstanding value

Melbourne Cup Rated Prices and Comments

There is a little rain around Melbourne today (Monday) and a little forecast overnight but all in all it seems likely only to amount to what the course curator would put on the track if there had been no rain at all.Expect a Dead 4 reading at 6.30am tomorrow and good fast racing ground come Cup time.
With Australian trained horses the likely leaders don't expect any mad speed and those handily placed will take some pegging back.
Here are my rated prices for the Cup based on the track being rated a good 3 come post time and the pace being only even at best

Mount Athos         6.00         Massive improver this year,easily the best handicapped horse
Dunaden                8.50         Improved again in Europe this year and brilliant at Caulfield
Mourayan              10.0          Classy,solid stayer.Maps perfectly.
Green Moon          12.0          Better suited here than in Cox Plate.Maps well
Americain             12.0         Excellent in Caulfield Cup.Will be giving a start though
Ethiopia                 15.0          Still improving,under rated.Very good in Cox Plate
Lights Of H.          15.0          Very good third Caulfield Cup.Will go forward and race handily 
Red Cadeaux         15.0          Just denied last year-may give too much start
My Quest For P.    29.00      Every chance in Caulfield Cup but may be fitter
Maluckyday          29.0         Maybe not as good as a couple of years ago
Zabeelionaire        41.0         Has more to offer perhaps
Galileo's Ch.         41.0         Doubt good enough on fast ground but Trainer commands respect
Fiorente                 51.0         Best effort was on a slow surface
Tac De Boistron    56.0        Best form on wet
Niwot                    61.0        Unplaced last year with less weight
Cavalryman          66.0         Not as good as he used to be
Kelinni                  66.0        Good Sydney stayer who won on Saturday but out of depth here 
Glencaddam G.     76.0        Well backed fav. for Caulfield Cup but limitations exposed there
Jakkalberry           101.0       Looks likely to be trapped wide or have to go back to rear
Winchester            101.0       Outside barrier means he will be out the back
Voila Ici                151.0       Doubt good enough
Sanagas                151.0      Doubt good enough
Precedence           201.0      Struggles this trip
Unusual Suspect  351.0     Not going well enough to figure

Value runners in order of preference are:-

Mount Athos        8.6 I have at 6.0
Mourayan            27.0 I have at 10.0
Green Moon        19.5 I have at 12.0
Ethiopia               25.0 I have at 15.0
Lights Of H.        20.0 I have at 15.0
Zebilionaire         55.0  I have at 41.0
Niwot                  80.0   I have at 61.0

Prices quoted are Betfair's current odds

Back tomorrow with a look at the rest of the Flemington card

 
   

Flemington Victoria Derby Day

This day has been a bookies benefit on many occasions in the past so an element of caution is understandable in those who have been kicking around for a few years.Generally it's weather related-wet tracks tilt the balance in favour of the layers and dry tracks give the punters their chance.Track rates a Dead 4 this morning but with a dry day expect good fast racing ground.
Ideal punting conditions then and a card that makes plenty of appeal.Bookies will be betting to very tight margins so with early morning markets framed around 120% expect better value later in the day when they will be betting around 110% or lower in some races.Fancied ones will hold or firm though.

Race 1  Al Aneed makes plenty of appeal.1600m looks ideal and the dry track will suit.Expect him to be closer to the speed today.4.40 this morning I rate him 3.60.Take the 4.40

Race 2  Gatewood is too short here at 3.0.I have my reservations about him in a strongly run race around this trip.Much more attractive is Excluded at 6.50.He's still improving and looks sure to be involved.I have him at 4.50.Take the 6.50

Race 3  Zydeco is a stand out here.She is 2.70 this morning and I expect to shorten and the rest to drift.I rate her 2.0.Take the 2.70

Race 4  Snitzerland is too big at 4.25.She is very tough and has the best form.I rate her 3.50

Race 5  Ocean Park should win but not playing at 1.60

Race 6  It's a Dundeel looked very good winning the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney.He was given too much to do last week but the winner Super Cool was going away again at the finish.Super Cool has plenty more to offer and at the relative prices he makes most appeal.He's 6.0 this morning and I rate him 4.80.I'll be saving on It's a Dundeel.

Race 7 Streama is the most likely winner.She is a general 3.0 this morning and I have her at 2.70.Lets hope we can shop around 3.25 at some point in the afternoon


Race 8  Howmuchdoyouloveme was super impressive when resuming at Caulfield but he has to go to another level here and is too short now at 2.40.Pampelone still has a bit of upside and he's good value around 7.0 .I rate him 5.50

Race 9  Tricky race and can't see any value

Bendigo Cup Day

Cup day at Bendigo today and very challenging day in prospect for punters.We start with three maidens each of which has a clear stand out form choice but all with negatives attached:-
Race 1 Star O'reilly.Only managed one run each prep-stable not firing
Race 2 Sharnee Rose.Placed 9 from 13 including third at G1-poor run latest
Race 3 Divine Moon.Third in G2 resuming-well held Listed grade latest
Anyone planning to steam into the shorts on either or all of these will need to make sure they are wearing their brown trousers today.
The supporting handicaps are super tough to unravel and make no appeal punting wise but I will be very active today on the lay side of the exchange.
The Cup is meant to be an open and competitive handicap but only 12 runners line up (conditions allow for a maximum of 18 plus 4 emergencies) and the two "top weights"are carrying only 55kg with rest all on 54.5kg.This weight compression is fast becoming an epidemic in feature handicaps and Saturday races in Victoria and is ruining the competitiveness of the racing as a result.Last week at Geelong only seven horses lined up for the Cup and predictably it was a jog and canter until the last 600m.
Practised is early favourite at 3.0. He's a progressive stayer who won well last time at Caulfield,draws well and has C Williams steering.He's rated 78 on official ratings whilst the top weight here are both rated 92 so he should be receiving 7kg but because of the compressed weights only gets 0.5kg.He's too badly handicapped to be favourite here and is far too short.
Puissance De Lune is next best at 3.3.He too is progressive and ran very well last time although beaten by an atrocious ride.This race is his Spring "Grand Final" as his owner is the race sponsor and he comes here at his peak.He too though is badly handicapped receiving only 0.5kg when he should be getting 4kg.There is a doubt about him running 2400m-his dam was a miler and bred to be one.His sire Shamadal can get horses that win over ground but he is really bred to be a 1600/2000m horse so you have to factor the doubt about the trip into his price.Drawing the outside gate means he will probably go back and rely on luck.3.30 is far too short all things consdered.
Silent Surround finished 2.8lenths fifth behind Shawardi in the G2 Herbert Power last time.This was his best ever performance and proved he stays the trip.He draws well and has D. Oliver riding.He is running off his correct handicap mark and really should be favourite.I have him 4.0 and he is generally 6.0 this morning.
Either back Silent Surround or lay both Practised and Puissance De Lune or do all three trades if your fearless!

Betfair Markets

Regular Betfair users were thrown into confusion last Thursday afternoon with the sudden appearance of a big player on the exchange.I was only looking at markets at Ballarat and Hawksbury so I don't know if markets elsewhere were also affected.Five figure bets are not common on Betfair's provincial and country markets except on very short favourites so what happened on Thursday was very unusual.
I first noticed it in Race 5 at Ballarat  when there was around a $30,000 back bet for the favourite Bea Diamond-most of it matched at odds marginally under what the corporates were offering.Having laid Bea Diamond at 2.50 expecting her to SP around 2.80 I was surprised at the money coming to back her at a shorter quote.She went down narrowly,conceding first run to the winner.
In Race 6 there was a $29,000 lay for the resuming Dark Sun who finished a well held fourth.
Race 7 was a F&M's 0-58 event so you wouldn't normally expect a lot of action there.There were 3 plays here a large lay on the resuming Chacella who finished third and $30,000 bets on the front two in the market Back Red And Black (weak in betting and all 30,000 matched at well under SP) and Manor Lady (30,000 all matched I think but a lot of it again marginally below what was on offer elsewhere).The well backed Manor Lady was the winner with the drifter Back Red And Black back in the ruck.
In the last race a $25,000 lay on the favourite Benenden (mostly unmatched) forced her out to around 3.46 before the big lay dropped of the screen to be quickly replaced by $25,000 back bet for the same horse.The action in this race looked a clear trading stratergy (force the price out,get on what you can at the overs then force it back down and lay of your liability) and it worked a treat.It also managed to wrong foot some seasoned operators including me.Benenden won easily.
There was also some unusual activity in the markets at Hawksbury that afternoon but I was concentrating on Ballarat so I cannot accurately report on what happened there.
I wonder if he/she/they will be back this week?Let's hope so-anything that increases the action on the exchange and spices up the markets has to be good thing overall I think.

Cox Plate Day

Fantastic Cox Plate in prospect at Moonee Valley today.Very competitive and a good clash between the generations.Three 3-y-o's line up and all have live hopes.Pierro clearly has the strongest form of the three but the 2040m trip has to be a big query.All To Hard had all the favours when running down Pierro last time but perhaps he's the more likely of the two to run out a strong 2040m.He'll need a lot of luck from the back of the field though.Proisir is the least exposed of the three and the one with the most scope to improve but he has a tricky barrier and will need to begin well to find a good position.
Green Moon is too short at 5.00 I think.He was a quality handicapper in England and whilst he may have improved I doubt he has the class required to win a Cox Plate.More Joyous is likely to be found wanting in a high pressure race at 2040m unless there is no pressure early.Shoot Out is hope and overs at 18.0-He's a GI winner this prep,gets the trip well and maps well from gate 4.I have him at 11.0The horse I keep coming back to is Ocean Park.He's lightly raced and still has more to offer,gets the trip and is a proven G1 horse.He the one I'm sure that will finish around the money.Best price on offer this morning is 6.50.I have him at 5.0.Really strong competitive race this year.
Value runners both to be ridden by world class jockeys are:-

Ocean Park at 6.50 and Shoot Out at 18.0

Rangirangdoo has the best credentials in the G2 Mile event (race 7).I'd be very confident of him putting this field away were it not for the presence of the Kiwi mare Silent Achiever.She may need another run to peak but she is a really high class mare.If she's fully wound up I doubt there is much between them.I'm going to monitor the betting here before making any decisions.

In race 2 the Paul Perry trained I Get Around has been very well backed.Perry has a very good record when raiding Melbourne Spring races and this horse is very progressive.He is first up here but if he's to win has to improve around  5kg on what he achieved to date.I'd rather have the consistent and admirable Obsidian Dragon at a top priced 7.0 (was 8.50 earlier) who was strong winner last time and is proven round Moonee Valley.I rate her a 5.0 chance

Manikato Night At Moonee Valley

Good track posted for this evening's Manikato Stakes meeting at Moonee Valley but the forecast  is for rain and the radar shows it falling over Melbourne now.Uncertainty over track conditions makes a tricky card even harder.
Buffering is a worthy favourite in the Manikato Stakes.He's got the inside berth and his on pace style means he's likely to have first run on the majority of the field.Pressure will go here from the 600m mark though and I don't think Buffering deserves to be quite as short as he is.He's a general 2.00 quote whereas I have him at 2.50.If the ground doesn't get worse than Dead I shall be having a little on Lone Rock at around the 10.0 quote.She's the only bit of value I can find in the race.
I like to be more enthusiastic punting wise on what is an excellent card but I've really struggled to find much value in the early markets especially with the threat of rain looming

F&M's Day At Ballarat

All the races at Ballarat today are restricted to female horses.No colts,horses or geldings allowed. This day has become a regular October fixture at Ballarat .I'll bet the bloke that came up with the idea for this "novelty" isn't a serious punter.I'm wary of F&M's races from a betting point of view and I usually look for extra value in the odds before betting in them.
Predictably,it's a very tricky card and until the last race I'll be operating only on the lay side of the exchange.
In the last I will be backing Benenden if I can get 3.2 or better.I thought her Cranbourne win was very strong and she will improve a lot over the extra 200m today.Gate 1 gives her the chance to position handy.She is a 3-y-o taking on her elders so that is a concern but if the odds are available I'm keen to play.

Geelong Cup Day

Ripper day in prospect at Geelong for the Cup meeting.
What a strange race the Cup is this year with only seven runners.Usually it's a maximum field with the emergencies sweating on a run.Quality over quantity this year.Very tricky race with none of them natural leaders,quite the opposite in fact.In the circumstances I think Chateau Margaux is the one most likely to go forward and if left alone may outsprint them.She's around 13.0 this morning which seems very good value-I rate her 8.0.With the likelihood of a tactical race I'm not interested in anything at a short quote here.
The early races before the cup look very tricky and I will be staying out of them from a backing point of view although there may be an opportunity to lay one or two at short quotes in some very difficult races.
I am keen on the chances of Koonoomoo in race 8.It's a Fillies and Mares event which always strips a little bit of my confidence away but not enough to put me off backing this one.She has clearly the best form,Good/Dead ideal,draws perfectly, has a progressive profile and Craig williams rides-plenty to like! I rate her a 2.80 chance so the current 3.60 on Betfair looks attractive.Rain is forecast for later- if it comes early and the ground begins to soften then my confidence would be dented and I'd probably be looking to hedge back out.If it stays dry-no problems.
In the last race New York is another progressive type who looks hard to beat.Last time he powered over the top to win a race that was set up for a closer so he may have been a bit flattered by that victory.Today he has gate 1 and can position up just behind the lead.He's going to be in the right spot and has shown before that he can quicken up well off a steady pace.I really like him today but he's been well found in the market at 2.60.Really need 3.0 to back him which may be possible on Betfair for a bit of money during the afternoon but doubt the bookies will offer much more than the current quote.

Champion of Champions?

For a short time during Frankel's final appearance last Saturday I thought it was all going to unravel and end in tears.He missed the start markedly and mid race for a few strides didn't seem to be going that well.One the field straightened up however he came there tanking along and soon put the race away.Whilst it wasn't as spectacular as the York victory it was most emphatic and considering the state of the ground and the opposition you couldn't possibly do anything but give it a massive "thumbs up".
Has there ever been a better racehorse?He's  been utterly dominant since his debut back at  Newmarket in August two years ago.His 2000 Guineas win was simply breathtaking.This year he's been even better, running away with the Queen Anne at the Royal meeting by 11 lenths with the outstanding Excelebration a distant second.When stepped up to 10 furlongs at York in August he was equally magnificent effortlessly routing a quality field.
Frankel is the best I've seen in my lifetime and perhaps he is the all time equine " Champion of Champions".

Seymour Cup Day

Excellent field assembles today for the Darley Semour Cup.Early markets have the progressive Callanish a 1.95 chance!Anyone drawing a speed map for this race is unlikely to be jumping in to lay the marginal odds on.Callanish has the outside gate in a field of 10 and if he goes forward he is strong chance to find himself posted wide.His last win was very dominant but he did get a soft lead there and that is unlikely to be happening today.The positives are his highly progressive form and that he seemed much better last time on fast ground which he gets again today.He's the obvious but I'd need at least 3.50 to be thinking of being interested in him from that gate today.The opposition is strong.
Launay is a seasoned performer in this grade,Over Quota improved leaps and bounds last prep and resumed nicely.Lord Of Brazil is very progressive and still has plenty more to offer whilst Amah Rock always attracts support and has solid form and a good gate.The Waterhouse runner Tribal Rock is a promising horse backing up after a good run at Caulfield on Wednesday-he's got a bit to find on the book but is lightly raced,has more to offer and may be fitter.
Value runners in a tricky race are Lord of Brazil around 11.0 and Over Quota around 13.0 

Caulfield Cup

Family issues have conspired to disrupt form study for today so I'll stick to the Cup.
Polarised opinions around the favourite Glencadam Gold.Dominic Beirne who's been on fire this Spring with his Betfair column rates him a 3.25 chance.Some other eminent judges think the current best quote of 5.0 is big unders.I have a lot of respect for Beirne's opinions but 3.25 has me mystified.I couldn't back this horse under 11.0 and he is woefully short in my opinion.Sure he ran away with the Metropolitan but the penalty and the wide barrier make it very difficult.On his form in England he has plenty to find against the European raiders engaged in this race so your banking on Waterhouse having improved him around 8 to 10 lenths.Maybe but not for me.
Dunaden despite top weight looks well handicapped.His Hong Kong win at this trip in December proved him to be a genuine Group 1 contender.The draw makes it difficult but 12.50 on Betfair is  overs-I have him at 7.0.Had he drawn well I'd be rating him around 4.0.
My idea of the value runners in order of preference are:

Dunaden   currently 12.50
Folding Gear            36.0
Niwot                       27.0

Odds are Betfairs current quotes.
Lights Of Heaven and My Quest For Peace were attractively priced earlier in the week and both are live hopes but both are trading slightly under 10.0 now and at that level they have found their correct  mark I think.
                   

Caulfield 1000 Guineas Day

On paper today's renewal of Caulfield's 1000 Guineas is the weakest I can remember.It has more the look of a Group 3 than a G1.Perhaps if anything is to come out of the race looking a genuine G1 performer it might be Molto Bene who was excellent last finishing powerfully of a wide run.Her get back style is a worry in race where there is no guarantee of a strong pace but she does draw well and has the right pilot on board.She'll love the mile and is the one to beat.She's a little skinny at around 4.25 but she may trade around 5.20 on Betfair and at that price I would be playing.
In race 5 I think Specter is big overs at 15.0.He'll probably press on and lead here and he may take some running down.He looked big resuming and was run down after booting clear on the turn.He's 3.90 a place if you shop around.Great EW value this one today.
Mares races are often a trap but it's hard to look beyond Oasis Bloom and Star Of Giselle in Race 7.These two will almost certainly dominate from the front.It's 3.10 each of two in early markets.I think Oasis Bloom should clearly be on top at around 2.70.Currently 3.20 on Betfair which I'll be dipping into.
In Race 4 I cannot go against Sertorius or Tribal Rock.I think one or the other will win but don't want to get involved at the cramped odds here.
Super Cool looks hard to beat in Race 3 but again 2.6 just doesn't appeal.
In the final event the import Picture Editor is very interesting at 11.0.He ran on well at MV last time and his UK form is very good for a race like this.He may be better over further in time and he may be giving them a start but 11.0 is way too big.