Happy New Year!
Flemington is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade and expect fast ground.Good card but I cannot find any value for you there today looking at the early markets.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and dry conditions so again expect good fast Summer racing ground.
Race 6 Darci Be Good ran very well in the Villiers.He was wide without cover but battled on in solid style to hang on to third.Highly Recommended ran on soundly for sixth in that race and the extra trip probably helps him today.The early markets have him favourite but I think Darci ought to be.Monton is a likeable horse but 2000m is new territory for him and far from certain to suit.I'm over Moriarty and happy to oppose him.I've got Darci Be good favourite on my figures at 3.6 so happy to play here with 4.80 currently on offer.
Race 8 Lot's of non runners here.City Of Light is favourite in early markets at 2.70 which is too short to me.I marginally prefer both Carmine King and Inventive in that order.The runner that looks big overs is Muchacho.He's won 6 from 11 admittedly most lately on the Acton track in Canberra but with Lester Grace's claim he only has 52.5 kg's.He's available at 17.0 in one place and 14.0 generally.My figures have him at 8.0 so happy to speculate at odds here.
Advised Bets
Rosehill Race 6 Darci Be Good 1.40 units to win @ 3.80 or better. (take the 4.80 available generally now)
Rosehill Race 8 Muchacho 0.65 units to win @ 9.0 or better ( take the 14.0 generally available now )
Monday 31 December 2012
Monday 24 December 2012
Merry Christmas
To every one who has been following the blog since it started in October whether regularly or occasionally -thank you for your interest and a very Merry and Safe Christmas to all of you.
There will be no more blogs this year as I'm having some quality time away with my Daughter.
The blogs has shown excellent profits each month to date and I'll be back with a round up of all that and a look at the racing on New Years Day.
Until then,enjoy yourselves and if you can't be good then at least be careful
Max
There will be no more blogs this year as I'm having some quality time away with my Daughter.
The blogs has shown excellent profits each month to date and I'll be back with a round up of all that and a look at the racing on New Years Day.
Until then,enjoy yourselves and if you can't be good then at least be careful
Max
Friday 21 December 2012
Villiers Day
Villiers day at Warwick Farm and expect the track to ride fast.
Race 6 Suspect Cabernet may just have benefitted from the run in the Festival Stakes a fortnight ago.She didn't have the clearest of passages there either so all in all it was a very satisfactory trial for today.Plenty of hopes here but happy to be with this mare today.8.0 is still available I have her at 6.50
Race 7 Thought Disciple ran very well last time after being wide in the run.Kept coming there and confirmed the strong impression from his first run back that he is an improved horse this prep.Good gate today can see him settle fairly handy and the extra trip is a real plus.4.20 available and I have him a rock solid 3.50 chance
Flemington is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3.
Race 5 Valrouz battled on well last time in a race where there was plenty of pressure up front.Gets a nice run on the speed here and doubt the step up to 1400m is a negative.He'll have first run on Quicksilver Lass and Perfectly Stunning.Benenden is a hope but this is tougher than last time when everything went perfectly.Valrouz is available at 7.0 and my rating here is 5.0.
Race 8 Al Aneed struck me as a Carnival horse earlier in the Spring.He refused to settle in the Carbine Club and again in the Sandown Guineas so his effort to finish fifth in the latter was all in all very creditable.I like the 5 week freshen up and reverting to a sprint trip.No need to fight him here just let him run.The juicy odds have gone now but 7.0 is still available and that is still too big.I have him at 5.50.
Advised Bets
Warwick Farm Race 6 Cabernet 0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (take the 8.0 available now)
Race 7 Disciple 1.45 units to win at 3.70 or better (take the 4.20 available now)
Flemington Race 5 Valrouz 1 unit to win at 5.50 or better (take the 7.0 available now)
Race 8 Al Aneed 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better ( take the 7.0 available now)
Race 6 Suspect Cabernet may just have benefitted from the run in the Festival Stakes a fortnight ago.She didn't have the clearest of passages there either so all in all it was a very satisfactory trial for today.Plenty of hopes here but happy to be with this mare today.8.0 is still available I have her at 6.50
Race 7 Thought Disciple ran very well last time after being wide in the run.Kept coming there and confirmed the strong impression from his first run back that he is an improved horse this prep.Good gate today can see him settle fairly handy and the extra trip is a real plus.4.20 available and I have him a rock solid 3.50 chance
Flemington is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3.
Race 5 Valrouz battled on well last time in a race where there was plenty of pressure up front.Gets a nice run on the speed here and doubt the step up to 1400m is a negative.He'll have first run on Quicksilver Lass and Perfectly Stunning.Benenden is a hope but this is tougher than last time when everything went perfectly.Valrouz is available at 7.0 and my rating here is 5.0.
Race 8 Al Aneed struck me as a Carnival horse earlier in the Spring.He refused to settle in the Carbine Club and again in the Sandown Guineas so his effort to finish fifth in the latter was all in all very creditable.I like the 5 week freshen up and reverting to a sprint trip.No need to fight him here just let him run.The juicy odds have gone now but 7.0 is still available and that is still too big.I have him at 5.50.
Advised Bets
Warwick Farm Race 6 Cabernet 0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (take the 8.0 available now)
Race 7 Disciple 1.45 units to win at 3.70 or better (take the 4.20 available now)
Flemington Race 5 Valrouz 1 unit to win at 5.50 or better (take the 7.0 available now)
Race 8 Al Aneed 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better ( take the 7.0 available now)
Thursday 20 December 2012
Moonee Valley and Canterbury Tonight
Two metropolitan evening meetings to go at tonight.
Competitive meeting at Canterbury and a decent midweek card all in all.Expect good fast racing ground.Hard to steer you into anything from early markets.There were a few of interest here but the odds on offer are similar to my figures so there is no obvious value at this stage.
Moonee Valley backs up again after putting on what must have been the worst metro meeting ever held in Victoria last night.It's a bit better tonight and I have 3 races there that I'm interested in at this stage.It's posted a Dead 4 but expect an upgrade to a Good 3.
Race 1 Three realistic hopes here Adbaan,Evens and Perfect Offering.Adbaan is around 3.50 in early markets and I think this too short.I have her 4.5.Perfect offering is around evens as I type this and again I think that is shorter than she should be.I have her at 2.65.Evens is the one that interests me.She will be ahead off Perfect Offering in the run here and may well have won at Caulfield last time had she not rolled into the worst ground under pressure.I have her at 3.10 and I think you'll get 3.50 on Betfair if you shop around.This race will be very tactical and Evens has Rawiller riding and no jockey is riding better in Australia at the moment.
Race 6 Competitive race with a few chances but the one at odds is Point Made.Lightly raced ex UK horse who improved at Warnambool last time and may improve again tonight especially over this longer trip.Drawn to get a nice trail here.The 9.0 has gone but 8.0 is still available.I rate this a 6.0 chance.
Race 7 I'm taking a view here that Point Made's win at Warnambool was a better effort than the markets are currently rating it.Third there was Chicago Miss who looks a live hope here especially with the 3kg claim and the slight drop back in trip.13.0 on offer is overs against my figure of 8.0.
Advised Bets
M.V Race 1 Evens 1.60 units to win at 3.30 or better.Shop around on Betfair here and try to get set at 3.50+
M.V. Race 6 Point Made 0.85 units to win at 7.0 or better (take the 8.0 available now)
M.V. Race 7 Chicago Miss 0.65 units to win at 9.0 or better (take the 13.0 available now)
Competitive meeting at Canterbury and a decent midweek card all in all.Expect good fast racing ground.Hard to steer you into anything from early markets.There were a few of interest here but the odds on offer are similar to my figures so there is no obvious value at this stage.
Moonee Valley backs up again after putting on what must have been the worst metro meeting ever held in Victoria last night.It's a bit better tonight and I have 3 races there that I'm interested in at this stage.It's posted a Dead 4 but expect an upgrade to a Good 3.
Race 1 Three realistic hopes here Adbaan,Evens and Perfect Offering.Adbaan is around 3.50 in early markets and I think this too short.I have her 4.5.Perfect offering is around evens as I type this and again I think that is shorter than she should be.I have her at 2.65.Evens is the one that interests me.She will be ahead off Perfect Offering in the run here and may well have won at Caulfield last time had she not rolled into the worst ground under pressure.I have her at 3.10 and I think you'll get 3.50 on Betfair if you shop around.This race will be very tactical and Evens has Rawiller riding and no jockey is riding better in Australia at the moment.
Race 6 Competitive race with a few chances but the one at odds is Point Made.Lightly raced ex UK horse who improved at Warnambool last time and may improve again tonight especially over this longer trip.Drawn to get a nice trail here.The 9.0 has gone but 8.0 is still available.I rate this a 6.0 chance.
Race 7 I'm taking a view here that Point Made's win at Warnambool was a better effort than the markets are currently rating it.Third there was Chicago Miss who looks a live hope here especially with the 3kg claim and the slight drop back in trip.13.0 on offer is overs against my figure of 8.0.
Advised Bets
M.V Race 1 Evens 1.60 units to win at 3.30 or better.Shop around on Betfair here and try to get set at 3.50+
M.V. Race 6 Point Made 0.85 units to win at 7.0 or better (take the 8.0 available now)
M.V. Race 7 Chicago Miss 0.65 units to win at 9.0 or better (take the 13.0 available now)
Tuesday 18 December 2012
ATC meeting at Gosford today
Tough and dissapointing Wednesday meeting at Mornington today so we'll pass there and go to the ATC meeting at Gosford which will be racing on good fast ground.
Race 2 No speed on paper here which complicates things.The step up to 1600m should suit Spurtonic but he raced off the speed when winning nicely last time at Newcastle where he looked suited by the big track.He's a Waterhouse horse so he may go forward here today.He's short at 1.85 I think although I think he is the most likely winner.Brannickers was sound enough last time for me not to sack her just yet.My figures here are 2.30 Spurtonic and 3.0 Brannickers so I've taken the 3.50 Brannickers.
Race 5 Excellent Point has been very good behind Pentasia in Saturday grade on his last 2 runs.Carmine King was also very good resuming and the extra 100m here will suit him.Forster has been backed but his reputation is stronger than his form at the moment and I'm happy to oppose him here.I have Excellent Point favourite here at 3.60 marginally over Carmine King at 3.80 whilst the current market has them the other way around.I'm on Excellent Point at 4.40 for 50% of my stake and I'll shop around with the rest.
Advised Bets
Gosford Race 2 Brannickers 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better (take the 3.50 available now)
Gosford Race 5 Excellent Point 1.40 units to win at 3.80 or better ( take the 4.40 available now for 50% of the stake and monitor market on Betfair and try and shop for better with the other 50%)
Race 2 No speed on paper here which complicates things.The step up to 1600m should suit Spurtonic but he raced off the speed when winning nicely last time at Newcastle where he looked suited by the big track.He's a Waterhouse horse so he may go forward here today.He's short at 1.85 I think although I think he is the most likely winner.Brannickers was sound enough last time for me not to sack her just yet.My figures here are 2.30 Spurtonic and 3.0 Brannickers so I've taken the 3.50 Brannickers.
Race 5 Excellent Point has been very good behind Pentasia in Saturday grade on his last 2 runs.Carmine King was also very good resuming and the extra 100m here will suit him.Forster has been backed but his reputation is stronger than his form at the moment and I'm happy to oppose him here.I have Excellent Point favourite here at 3.60 marginally over Carmine King at 3.80 whilst the current market has them the other way around.I'm on Excellent Point at 4.40 for 50% of my stake and I'll shop around with the rest.
Advised Bets
Gosford Race 2 Brannickers 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better (take the 3.50 available now)
Gosford Race 5 Excellent Point 1.40 units to win at 3.80 or better ( take the 4.40 available now for 50% of the stake and monitor market on Betfair and try and shop for better with the other 50%)
Friday 14 December 2012
Flemington and Rosehill Today
Flemington posted a Dead 4 and with thundery showers around it's difficult to gauge what we are likely to be dealing with as the day progresses.Uncertainty about track conditions complicate what is a very difficult card.Nothing stands out value wise here looking at early markets.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and with dry conditions it will be fast ground.Again it's a difficult card and value is hard to find so it's going to be just one advised bet only today.
Race 6 Cantonese is a war horse and is hard to beat here.I thought he'd drop away last week after such tough run but he kept fighting on and was only beaten less than a length.He either leads or tracks Fiumicino here.He has Cassidy on board and I think he is the perfect jockey for this horse.He's had a hard tough campaign and there is a chance that he's had enough but he's clearly still the one to beat here.I rate him 3.0 and 3.50 is available.They may bet better so I am having 50% at 3.50 and shopping around on Betfair with the other 50%.
Advised bets
Rosehill Race 6 Cantonese 1.65 units to win @ 3.20 or better (take 50% @ the 3.50 available now and shop around with the other 50%)
Rosehill is a Good 3 and with dry conditions it will be fast ground.Again it's a difficult card and value is hard to find so it's going to be just one advised bet only today.
Race 6 Cantonese is a war horse and is hard to beat here.I thought he'd drop away last week after such tough run but he kept fighting on and was only beaten less than a length.He either leads or tracks Fiumicino here.He has Cassidy on board and I think he is the perfect jockey for this horse.He's had a hard tough campaign and there is a chance that he's had enough but he's clearly still the one to beat here.I rate him 3.0 and 3.50 is available.They may bet better so I am having 50% at 3.50 and shopping around on Betfair with the other 50%.
Advised bets
Rosehill Race 6 Cantonese 1.65 units to win @ 3.20 or better (take 50% @ the 3.50 available now and shop around with the other 50%)
Tuesday 11 December 2012
Caulfield and Canterbury Today
Caulfield is posted a Dead 4 but expect a Good 3.I can't advise anything here today from early markets-it's looks very trappy.I thought Aliyana in Race 3 looked overs at 4.40 earlier but that has gone now and the lack of pace in this race worries me so I'm staying out.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and even with a few showers about I doubt it will affect that reading.
Another very tricky card to deal with.
Race 2 I thought Pipette looked reluctant last time so maybe the blinkers will work today.She has Rawiller replacing the claimer so she'll get plenty of encouragement from the saddle.Can't back her though at 1.95 but don't really want to oppose either.Retort Courteous is the very obvious alternative.
Race 6 Soros heads the market at around 2.80.He's better with some juice in the ground and he's dropping back in trip so he looks vulnerable to me.King's Dominion is second choice around 3.20 and this race is his for the taking but I think he's become ungenuine.He'll get his own way out in front but he's looked very suss at the business end to me.Both of these are genuine Saturday class horses taking on provincial types but both have strong negatives attached.I haven't decided on a strategy here yet.
Race 7 I've taken the 5.0 about Brannickers here.She has shortened with a few of the bookies but 5.0 is still available if you shop around.I have her at 4.0 here.She probably should have won at Scone last time and the winner there has run ok in town.She's got plenty of scope to do better and this is not a strong race.She's a 3-y-o filly taking on mares so that is a concern but I'm happy to play at these odds.
Advised bets
Canterbury Race 7 Brannickers 1.25 units to win @ 4.20 or better (take the 5.0 available now)
Canterbury is a Good 3 and even with a few showers about I doubt it will affect that reading.
Another very tricky card to deal with.
Race 2 I thought Pipette looked reluctant last time so maybe the blinkers will work today.She has Rawiller replacing the claimer so she'll get plenty of encouragement from the saddle.Can't back her though at 1.95 but don't really want to oppose either.Retort Courteous is the very obvious alternative.
Race 6 Soros heads the market at around 2.80.He's better with some juice in the ground and he's dropping back in trip so he looks vulnerable to me.King's Dominion is second choice around 3.20 and this race is his for the taking but I think he's become ungenuine.He'll get his own way out in front but he's looked very suss at the business end to me.Both of these are genuine Saturday class horses taking on provincial types but both have strong negatives attached.I haven't decided on a strategy here yet.
Race 7 I've taken the 5.0 about Brannickers here.She has shortened with a few of the bookies but 5.0 is still available if you shop around.I have her at 4.0 here.She probably should have won at Scone last time and the winner there has run ok in town.She's got plenty of scope to do better and this is not a strong race.She's a 3-y-o filly taking on mares so that is a concern but I'm happy to play at these odds.
Advised bets
Canterbury Race 7 Brannickers 1.25 units to win @ 4.20 or better (take the 5.0 available now)
Friday 7 December 2012
Caulfield and Rosehill Today
Computer problems this morning have me playing catch up so I'll be brief.
Caulfield
Expect fast racing ground.Competitive card and very tough generally.
Race 7 I've been playing "Devil's Advocate"for the last 48 hours finding reasons not to back Spacecraft here.He never wins,goes best at the Valley,been up for ages etc.Fact is he was terrific last time,get's a soft lead here,has the best form,loves it fast and most of the opposition is hard to fancy.At 4.20 he is overs-I cannot get him longer than 3.20.I'll feel a total prat if it get's beat but I'm backing it.
Rosehill
It's a good card for Summer but it's hard to be definitive early doors about a lot of the races.I'd like to back Cabernet in the Festival Stakes but suspect the Villiers in a fortnight is the plan so I'll probably sit it out.
Race 8 Speed is mad here.Riva De Lago is a good fresh horse and has his first go for the Waller yard.This race should be set up for him to finish over the top of them.Had a trial so hopefully is ready but this stable is very hard to read.Monitor betting here.Currently 4.50 which is ok if it's ready.If it blows pass.
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 7 Spacecraft 1.50 units to win @ 3.50 or better (take the 4.20 for 50% of stake and shop on Betfair with other 50%)
Rosehill Race 8 Riva De Lago 1.35 units to win @ 3.70 or better but monitor market-if drifts over 5.50 at post time No Bet
Caulfield
Expect fast racing ground.Competitive card and very tough generally.
Race 7 I've been playing "Devil's Advocate"for the last 48 hours finding reasons not to back Spacecraft here.He never wins,goes best at the Valley,been up for ages etc.Fact is he was terrific last time,get's a soft lead here,has the best form,loves it fast and most of the opposition is hard to fancy.At 4.20 he is overs-I cannot get him longer than 3.20.I'll feel a total prat if it get's beat but I'm backing it.
Rosehill
It's a good card for Summer but it's hard to be definitive early doors about a lot of the races.I'd like to back Cabernet in the Festival Stakes but suspect the Villiers in a fortnight is the plan so I'll probably sit it out.
Race 8 Speed is mad here.Riva De Lago is a good fresh horse and has his first go for the Waller yard.This race should be set up for him to finish over the top of them.Had a trial so hopefully is ready but this stable is very hard to read.Monitor betting here.Currently 4.50 which is ok if it's ready.If it blows pass.
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 7 Spacecraft 1.50 units to win @ 3.50 or better (take the 4.20 for 50% of stake and shop on Betfair with other 50%)
Rosehill Race 8 Riva De Lago 1.35 units to win @ 3.70 or better but monitor market-if drifts over 5.50 at post time No Bet
Thursday 6 December 2012
Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight
Double header of evening racing so plenty of action.At this time of the year we're high on quantity and sadly lacking in quality.
It's been a tough week and I've made a couple of poor decisions in leaving a couple of winners that I really should have backed.Let's see if things can be evened up a little this evening.
Moonee Valley
Posted as a Dead 4 but expect a Good 3 sooner rather than later.
Race 6 Vizhaka is a horse on the up.Races handy from a good gate.Odds may look cramped but I rate him 1.90.
Race 8 Most Husbands is better than these.He's already been backed but you don't need to have much on to rattle the early markets on Friday nights.He's resuming so we're guessing a little as to fitness.I have him at 5.0 so the 7.0 that is still available is still ok
Canterbury
Expect good fast racing ground .
Race 5 Reunite looks the one here down in the weights from a good gate.Runs off a rating of 61 which looks too lenient.I rate him a 3.30 chance and 4.20 is available
Race 6 Caprossa appeals as the value here.Still improving this one and tracks the speed and gets the last crack at them here.I have her at 4.80 but 6.50 is currently available
Advised Bets
M.V Race 6 Vizhaka 2.50 units to win @ 2.10 or better
Race 8 Most Husbands 1 unit to win @ 5.0 or better (take the 7.0)
Cant Race 5 Reunite 1.55 units to win @3.50 or better (take the 4.20)
Race 6 Caprossa 1.05 units to win @ 5.0 or better (take the 6.50)
It's been a tough week and I've made a couple of poor decisions in leaving a couple of winners that I really should have backed.Let's see if things can be evened up a little this evening.
Moonee Valley
Posted as a Dead 4 but expect a Good 3 sooner rather than later.
Race 6 Vizhaka is a horse on the up.Races handy from a good gate.Odds may look cramped but I rate him 1.90.
Race 8 Most Husbands is better than these.He's already been backed but you don't need to have much on to rattle the early markets on Friday nights.He's resuming so we're guessing a little as to fitness.I have him at 5.0 so the 7.0 that is still available is still ok
Canterbury
Expect good fast racing ground .
Race 5 Reunite looks the one here down in the weights from a good gate.Runs off a rating of 61 which looks too lenient.I rate him a 3.30 chance and 4.20 is available
Race 6 Caprossa appeals as the value here.Still improving this one and tracks the speed and gets the last crack at them here.I have her at 4.80 but 6.50 is currently available
Advised Bets
M.V Race 6 Vizhaka 2.50 units to win @ 2.10 or better
Race 8 Most Husbands 1 unit to win @ 5.0 or better (take the 7.0)
Cant Race 5 Reunite 1.55 units to win @3.50 or better (take the 4.20)
Race 6 Caprossa 1.05 units to win @ 5.0 or better (take the 6.50)
Wednesday 5 December 2012
Warrnambool Today
Average sort of card at Warrnambool today.Track is posted a Dead 4 but I'm expecting it to be a Good 3 as the day progresses.
A couple that interest me today and both of them are mares.
Race 6 Lionhearted Girl has been dominant in her last two starts.This is harder than last time but she
still looks well handicapped to me with 52kg's after the claim.Expect her to lead and be hard to run down.I have evaluated her at 3.70 but 4.60 is available in early markets.
Race 8 Chicago Miss was very brave last time after a tough wide run on speed in a helter skelter affair.She's improving and today she should get a soft run trailing the speed.Looks hard to beat.
Today's Bets
W'Bool Race 6 Lionhearted Girl 1.35 units to win
W'Bool Race 8 Chicago Miss 1.75 units to win @ 3.0 or better
A couple that interest me today and both of them are mares.
Race 6 Lionhearted Girl has been dominant in her last two starts.This is harder than last time but she
still looks well handicapped to me with 52kg's after the claim.Expect her to lead and be hard to run down.I have evaluated her at 3.70 but 4.60 is available in early markets.
Race 8 Chicago Miss was very brave last time after a tough wide run on speed in a helter skelter affair.She's improving and today she should get a soft run trailing the speed.Looks hard to beat.
Today's Bets
W'Bool Race 6 Lionhearted Girl 1.35 units to win
W'Bool Race 8 Chicago Miss 1.75 units to win @ 3.0 or better
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