A decent month and good to get back on track after a poor one last month.
I'm a bit disappointed I didn't capitalize a bit more on Royal Ascot as there were three or four winners there that I came close to backing but passed. It was a profitable week but definitely one of missed opportunities. Here are the June figures:-
UK & International
Blog Bets advised in 12 races- 2 winners (1 a saver)
Stakes 14.50
Loss 5.15 units
Bets sent via Twitter Bets advised in 2 races- 2 winners
Stakes 3.20
Profit 8.56
UK overall for June 3.41 units Profit
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 4 races - 1 winner
Stakes 4.55
Profit 1.90 units
Bets sent via Twitter Bets advised in 26 races- 6 winners
Stakes 25.15
Profit 14.41 units
Australia overall for June 16.31 units Profit
Overall total for June 19.72 units PROFIT
Back tomorrow
Monday 30 June 2014
Saturday 28 June 2014
Derby Day at The Curragh,Plate Day at Newcastle plus Windsor, Chester & Newmarket
A very good day in Australia with 1 from 2 in the blog and 2 from 3 sent via twitter with the winners at 9.0, 8.0 and 4.40.
It's been a very quiet week up until today and it was planned to use the week to catch up on some outstanding things and generally have a bit of a 'freshen up" after Royal Ascot.
Normally I'm looking in depth at the UK Saturday cards on Thursday and it's just a bit of fine tuning needed to finalize the form on Saturday itself. That hasn't happened this week due to me being busy with other things so I won't be doing much today at all.
The Irish Derby is Australia's to lose and with decent ground expected he ought to be winning but he's unlikely to be a betting proposition either today or in the future.
The Northumberland Plate has been a nightmare for me over the years and I don't ever remember backing the winner. Something would have to have outstanding credentials to tempt me in this race and nothing has this year.
It's a very difficult day and there is only one horse that interests me today:
Windsor
Race 5
Rain is forecast so I expect the current Good To Firm to freshen up to Good at least and probably a tad softer than that. Ashpan Sam is very progressive and I fancy him to follow up his Epsom win on Derby day. He's very speedy and should lead this field comfortably.Richard Hughes does the steering and he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Ashpan Sam 1.50 units at 3.40 or better-4.0 is available with a few bookies and that's good value
It's been a very quiet week up until today and it was planned to use the week to catch up on some outstanding things and generally have a bit of a 'freshen up" after Royal Ascot.
Normally I'm looking in depth at the UK Saturday cards on Thursday and it's just a bit of fine tuning needed to finalize the form on Saturday itself. That hasn't happened this week due to me being busy with other things so I won't be doing much today at all.
The Irish Derby is Australia's to lose and with decent ground expected he ought to be winning but he's unlikely to be a betting proposition either today or in the future.
The Northumberland Plate has been a nightmare for me over the years and I don't ever remember backing the winner. Something would have to have outstanding credentials to tempt me in this race and nothing has this year.
It's a very difficult day and there is only one horse that interests me today:
Windsor
Race 5
Rain is forecast so I expect the current Good To Firm to freshen up to Good at least and probably a tad softer than that. Ashpan Sam is very progressive and I fancy him to follow up his Epsom win on Derby day. He's very speedy and should lead this field comfortably.Richard Hughes does the steering and he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Ashpan Sam 1.50 units at 3.40 or better-4.0 is available with a few bookies and that's good value
Friday 27 June 2014
Flemington & Rosehill Today
Flemington is a Dead 4 but with showers around keep monitoring.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and has strong winds forecast so look out for any bias they may cause.
Flemington
Race 2
Allez Eagle's effort last time at the Valley was huge. That was 1200m and all his wins are at 1200m over in N.Z.. The drop back to 1100m is a slight concern but overall I want to be with him today.
Advised Bet: Allez Eagle 1.35 units at 3.85 or better-has been 4.40 into 4.20 now
Race 3
Dig a Pony looked good last time but the pace was really on there and that may have flattered her a bit. Track will be drier today too. At around 3.50 i think she's a bit too short. The obvious alternative is Refulgent who has been luckless in both his last two runs.I have a slight query with him at 1610m.
Second Bullet will be much fitter today and is a live hope.Good Music is racing well. French Husstler isn't entirely hopeless and it's a big jump from maiden grade to open company for Kareeming but he will be greatly improved by the step up in trip. Not committed here at the moment
Race 5
Charmed Harmony was fantastic at Sandown last time.He went off in front and didn't dawdle at all.Just when you thought he was about to come back to the rest of the field he kicked further away.
If he can reproduce that effort again then he'll be winning but it was so much better that anything he's shown before so just a bit wary he can do it again. The very obvious alternative is Aeratus whose having a very good prep.The drop back to 1600m is more a positive than a negative I think.
May do something here but not committed at this stage.
Race 6
If Akavoroun wants to contest the final of this series then he'll probably need to win today to get his rating up so he can make the field. I'm sure Henwood has the final as his target so maybe he will still need this to put him spot on. Thunderbird One is a possibility as are the three at the top all trained by Weir. Ringo is not that easy to weigh up but I'm not dismissing. Tricky
Race 7
I think there are four serious hopes here. The Thief who looked very good winning here last time when seeming to have a lot to do at the weights-was heavily backed nevertheless. Vain queen who travelled really well in the run before running out a strong winner last time and is two from two down the straight here.Shangai Warrior has to find a bit to challenge The Thief but he's a bit better at the weights today and will probably be fitter. Al Aneed been a bit difficult overall but first up over a sprint trip might be the best time to catch him. There has been no interest in him at this stage-I thought he would be shorter than he is.
May do something here-not committed yet
Race 8
Nautical has the best form,a good gate and a good 2kg claimer aboard. She's no moral but she's clearly the one to beat and 4.40 is big enough to tempt me.
Advised Bet: Nautical 1.25 units at 4.0 or better -4.40 is available now-doubt it gets much bigger
Rosehill is complex and Waller has multiple runners in many races which only complicates further.
No strong opinions about anything there but possibilities if markets open up a bit more.
Any further Bets/Lays/Updates sent via Twitter
Rosehill is a Good 3 and has strong winds forecast so look out for any bias they may cause.
Flemington
Race 2
Allez Eagle's effort last time at the Valley was huge. That was 1200m and all his wins are at 1200m over in N.Z.. The drop back to 1100m is a slight concern but overall I want to be with him today.
Advised Bet: Allez Eagle 1.35 units at 3.85 or better-has been 4.40 into 4.20 now
Race 3
Dig a Pony looked good last time but the pace was really on there and that may have flattered her a bit. Track will be drier today too. At around 3.50 i think she's a bit too short. The obvious alternative is Refulgent who has been luckless in both his last two runs.I have a slight query with him at 1610m.
Second Bullet will be much fitter today and is a live hope.Good Music is racing well. French Husstler isn't entirely hopeless and it's a big jump from maiden grade to open company for Kareeming but he will be greatly improved by the step up in trip. Not committed here at the moment
Race 5
Charmed Harmony was fantastic at Sandown last time.He went off in front and didn't dawdle at all.Just when you thought he was about to come back to the rest of the field he kicked further away.
If he can reproduce that effort again then he'll be winning but it was so much better that anything he's shown before so just a bit wary he can do it again. The very obvious alternative is Aeratus whose having a very good prep.The drop back to 1600m is more a positive than a negative I think.
May do something here but not committed at this stage.
Race 6
If Akavoroun wants to contest the final of this series then he'll probably need to win today to get his rating up so he can make the field. I'm sure Henwood has the final as his target so maybe he will still need this to put him spot on. Thunderbird One is a possibility as are the three at the top all trained by Weir. Ringo is not that easy to weigh up but I'm not dismissing. Tricky
Race 7
I think there are four serious hopes here. The Thief who looked very good winning here last time when seeming to have a lot to do at the weights-was heavily backed nevertheless. Vain queen who travelled really well in the run before running out a strong winner last time and is two from two down the straight here.Shangai Warrior has to find a bit to challenge The Thief but he's a bit better at the weights today and will probably be fitter. Al Aneed been a bit difficult overall but first up over a sprint trip might be the best time to catch him. There has been no interest in him at this stage-I thought he would be shorter than he is.
May do something here-not committed yet
Race 8
Nautical has the best form,a good gate and a good 2kg claimer aboard. She's no moral but she's clearly the one to beat and 4.40 is big enough to tempt me.
Advised Bet: Nautical 1.25 units at 4.0 or better -4.40 is available now-doubt it gets much bigger
Rosehill is complex and Waller has multiple runners in many races which only complicates further.
No strong opinions about anything there but possibilities if markets open up a bit more.
Any further Bets/Lays/Updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 24 June 2014
Geelong & Canterbury Today
Inevitably the Sandown track has been passed over as unfit for racing at the moment and we are left with the midweek metropolitan meeting on the synthetic track at Geelong.
I don't profess to know anything about preparing grass tracks or their husbandry but the state of the various racing surfaces in Victoria is an utter disgrace. The level of competence of the various areas of racing administration is woeful.
Canterbury which is by the way an excellent surface is posted a Dead 4 and will probably upgrade.
No early business today and no in depth analysis either as I am working on ramping up the blog from next week and am taking a bit of time this week to tie up on a few loose ends.
I'll cover the racing today via twitter and Bets/Lays and updates will be tweeted during racing
I don't profess to know anything about preparing grass tracks or their husbandry but the state of the various racing surfaces in Victoria is an utter disgrace. The level of competence of the various areas of racing administration is woeful.
Canterbury which is by the way an excellent surface is posted a Dead 4 and will probably upgrade.
No early business today and no in depth analysis either as I am working on ramping up the blog from next week and am taking a bit of time this week to tie up on a few loose ends.
I'll cover the racing today via twitter and Bets/Lays and updates will be tweeted during racing
Sunday 22 June 2014
Royal Ascot & Weekly Round Up
Another Royal Ascot over and as ever the racing was fantastic with some new potential stars emerging. The form for the rest of the season is really embedded after Ascot week providing the ground is decent during the meeting which it certainly was this year.
Bookies would have had a poor week.Of the 30 races 14 went to favourites or joint favourites and only 8 races produced winners in double figures.
I was another winner short of making it a decent week for the blog although it did manage a small profit on the meeting.Here are the Royal Ascot figures:-
Bets advised in the blog Bets in 11 races- 3 winners (one of them a saver only)
Stakes 13.0 units
Returns 9.35
Loss 3.65
Bets advised by Twitter 1 bet -1 winner (this was originally tweeted but then added to the evening blog update and the advised odds were still available )
Stakes 1.20
Returns 6.00
Profit 4.80 units
Overall for Royal Ascot Profit 1.15 units
All the bets in Australia were sent via twitter. Bets in 9 races and 2 winners
Stakes 8.50
Returns 12.88
Profit 4.38 units
Overall for the week PROFIT 5.53 units
Quite a few new visitors to the blog this week and I hope a good number of you will come back and follow it. It's punting so it's up and down but the blog is well in profit since I began it a couple of years ago and it costs nothing at all to check it out.
Back Wednesday
Bookies would have had a poor week.Of the 30 races 14 went to favourites or joint favourites and only 8 races produced winners in double figures.
I was another winner short of making it a decent week for the blog although it did manage a small profit on the meeting.Here are the Royal Ascot figures:-
Bets advised in the blog Bets in 11 races- 3 winners (one of them a saver only)
Stakes 13.0 units
Returns 9.35
Loss 3.65
Bets advised by Twitter 1 bet -1 winner (this was originally tweeted but then added to the evening blog update and the advised odds were still available )
Stakes 1.20
Returns 6.00
Profit 4.80 units
Overall for Royal Ascot Profit 1.15 units
All the bets in Australia were sent via twitter. Bets in 9 races and 2 winners
Stakes 8.50
Returns 12.88
Profit 4.38 units
Overall for the week PROFIT 5.53 units
Quite a few new visitors to the blog this week and I hope a good number of you will come back and follow it. It's punting so it's up and down but the blog is well in profit since I began it a couple of years ago and it costs nothing at all to check it out.
Back Wednesday
Saturday 21 June 2014
Royal Ascot-Day Five
Another 4mm of water was put on the Track overnight and the official going is Good to Firm on both Straight and Round Courses.
Bookies fought back a bit yesterday but overall the punters are ahead after the first four days,but not this one unfortunately.
Hopefully I can get the ledger into "black" figures on the final day.
Chesham Stakes Listed 7 Furlongs Straight
Irish raiders Dick Whittington and Toscanini have the best figures coming into this but I don't feel a compelling urge to back either of them.There are plenty here who can do better over 7 furlongs and a very interesting newcomer in Cordero trained by Ward in the US but a Coolmore owed horse. This is race it's hard to confident about and no problem passing here.
Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap One Mile 4 Furlongs Round Course
Arab Spring is already on the cusp of being a group class performer after his dominant win at York and despite top weight will be hard to beat here. Another one bound for higher grade races is Hamelin who ran really well over this course and distance last month just failing to catch Al Saham after conceeding first run. The Godolphin pair Wadi Al Hattawi and Groundbreaking were dominant winners last time but both have a lot more to do here. Elidor,Havana Cooler and Elhaame are really the only other ones I could considered here.
I thought about backing both Arab Spring and Hamelin here but will back Hamelin and save on Arab spring.
Advised Bets: Hamelin 1 unit at 5.20 or better -monitor on Betfair is around 6.2 at the moment and save on Arab Spring 0.40 units at
Hardwicke Stakes G2 One Mile 4 Furlongs Round Course
I've never been quite convinced about Telescope but the fact that Ryan Moore prefers him to Hillstar has to count for something here. I don't think there is a great deal between most of these and it's a difficult task to make a solid case for anything.Pass
Diamond Jubilee Stakes G1 6 Furlongs Straight
Slade Power has bar the occasional blip continued to improve and he stands out here to me.I have him clear favourite at 3.20 and he's on offer a couple of points above that 5.20 currently on Betfair.
Aljamaaher is a G2 miler who is being tried back at sprint trips and he's a sound hope but I much prefer Slade Power.Due Diligence bolted up against some handy 3-y-o's in Ireland and he could turn out to be a very good sprinter.He'll need to improve a fair bit though to trouble Slade Power.Fast ground is against Gordon Lord Byron who needs a bit of juice in the ground to show his best
Advised Bet: Slade Power 1.55 units at 3.40 or better-take the 5.20 on Betfair or 5.0 with a bookie if you can get it
Wokingham Handicap 6 Furlongs Straight
Big open handicap with plenty of hopefuls and lots of pace. i want to be with strong finishers here and the two against the field I really like are Ninjago who gets to have another go this over course and distance on decent ground.He sluiced up here last Spring and this race is right up his alley.
Rocky Ground won in great style at Windsor and he's very progressive and I want to be with him too.
York Glory did me a good turn in this race last year and he would be third pick.
Advised Bets: Ninjago and Rocky Ground 0.55 units on each at 9.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Queen Alexandra Stakes 2 Miles 5 Furlongs and 159 Yards
I'll take a chance here that Brass ring will see out the trip.I think he's potentially better than these but I think he's a bit quirky too.He's got the Hood on first time today so hopefully that might help him a bit. 11.0 on Betfair is very attractive as I rate him a 7.0 chance here
Advised Bet; Brass Ring 0.70 units at 7.50 or better
If there are any further bets/lays and updates today I'll send them via Twitter during racing
Bookies fought back a bit yesterday but overall the punters are ahead after the first four days,but not this one unfortunately.
Hopefully I can get the ledger into "black" figures on the final day.
Chesham Stakes Listed 7 Furlongs Straight
Irish raiders Dick Whittington and Toscanini have the best figures coming into this but I don't feel a compelling urge to back either of them.There are plenty here who can do better over 7 furlongs and a very interesting newcomer in Cordero trained by Ward in the US but a Coolmore owed horse. This is race it's hard to confident about and no problem passing here.
Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap One Mile 4 Furlongs Round Course
Arab Spring is already on the cusp of being a group class performer after his dominant win at York and despite top weight will be hard to beat here. Another one bound for higher grade races is Hamelin who ran really well over this course and distance last month just failing to catch Al Saham after conceeding first run. The Godolphin pair Wadi Al Hattawi and Groundbreaking were dominant winners last time but both have a lot more to do here. Elidor,Havana Cooler and Elhaame are really the only other ones I could considered here.
I thought about backing both Arab Spring and Hamelin here but will back Hamelin and save on Arab spring.
Advised Bets: Hamelin 1 unit at 5.20 or better -monitor on Betfair is around 6.2 at the moment and save on Arab Spring 0.40 units at
Hardwicke Stakes G2 One Mile 4 Furlongs Round Course
I've never been quite convinced about Telescope but the fact that Ryan Moore prefers him to Hillstar has to count for something here. I don't think there is a great deal between most of these and it's a difficult task to make a solid case for anything.Pass
Diamond Jubilee Stakes G1 6 Furlongs Straight
Slade Power has bar the occasional blip continued to improve and he stands out here to me.I have him clear favourite at 3.20 and he's on offer a couple of points above that 5.20 currently on Betfair.
Aljamaaher is a G2 miler who is being tried back at sprint trips and he's a sound hope but I much prefer Slade Power.Due Diligence bolted up against some handy 3-y-o's in Ireland and he could turn out to be a very good sprinter.He'll need to improve a fair bit though to trouble Slade Power.Fast ground is against Gordon Lord Byron who needs a bit of juice in the ground to show his best
Advised Bet: Slade Power 1.55 units at 3.40 or better-take the 5.20 on Betfair or 5.0 with a bookie if you can get it
Wokingham Handicap 6 Furlongs Straight
Big open handicap with plenty of hopefuls and lots of pace. i want to be with strong finishers here and the two against the field I really like are Ninjago who gets to have another go this over course and distance on decent ground.He sluiced up here last Spring and this race is right up his alley.
Rocky Ground won in great style at Windsor and he's very progressive and I want to be with him too.
York Glory did me a good turn in this race last year and he would be third pick.
Advised Bets: Ninjago and Rocky Ground 0.55 units on each at 9.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Queen Alexandra Stakes 2 Miles 5 Furlongs and 159 Yards
I'll take a chance here that Brass ring will see out the trip.I think he's potentially better than these but I think he's a bit quirky too.He's got the Hood on first time today so hopefully that might help him a bit. 11.0 on Betfair is very attractive as I rate him a 7.0 chance here
Advised Bet; Brass Ring 0.70 units at 7.50 or better
If there are any further bets/lays and updates today I'll send them via Twitter during racing
Friday 20 June 2014
Moonee Valley & Randwick Today
Both tracks post Dead 5's.Moonee Valley has some showers around and Randwick is set to be dry.
Upgrades/downgrades will depend on the accuracy of those morning readings.
I had a few possibles today but all have firmed overnight and I am going to need those markets to open up a little before committing to anything today.
Moonee Valley
Race 2
I like Klishina here but I'm worried about gate 2 and the lack of pace. She's best saved up for one last run at them and may find herself bailed up a a crucial point here. At around 5.0 I would probably play but she's just a tad too short at the moment.
Race 4
Jessy Belle with a good gate and a good 3kg claimer is on top but Street Allure is greatly feared so much did she improve last time after been too keen and wide as well.Longchamp Belle and I'm Fearsome both draw poor gates but are live hopes if you can swoop home here today.
Race 5
I'd be keen on Use a Lot here if he hadn't disappointed on his comeback run.Jockey blamed the wet but he'd run a blinder the season before on a very wet track when fourth in the Ballarat cup so I'm thinking maybe he simply wasn't fit enough. Not committed at this stage
Race 6
The Cleaner is a real "street fighter" and doesn't go down easily. Sensibly he's had a month off after his tough effort last time.He goes forward as does The New Boy and there is a chance they'll soften each other up.Fast and Free is having a good prep and he's the one most likely if The Cleaner has to work too hard up front. I thought Fulgar was looking a bit sour last time at Randwick. If the Sydney/Melbourne switch sweetens him up a bit he'd go very close here.
Race 7
I wouldn't want to take a short price Le Bonsir if there was any serious juice in the ground as he's a dead set dry tracker. Elite Elle likes the sting out but draws awkwardly and is becoming a bit frustrating. That leaves Nearest the Pin (awkward gate) , Pillar Of Creation and Anlon as the others most likely.Tricky
Race 8
When Atlantis Dream won at Sandown I thought it was a big effort but subsequent winners that day came from off the pace so I'm not sure my initial thoughts were spot on. She is improving and deserves to be favourite but she's short enough with a wide draw to overcome. I keep backing Dare I Ask and she keeps running well without winning. Dunn aboard and a soft lead possible means I may get sucked in again-backs up from Wednesday
Randwick
Race 2
Cradle Me got a soft lead last time but is usually ridden back.Both her and commanding wit have crept up the handicap after two successive wins. I keep coming back to Kristy Lee here but hoped she'd be better odds. Not committed yet.
Race 6
Rugged Cross draws wide and will go back so the tempo is crucial to his chances here. He got there just last time from the rear off a slow pace but this is a much tougher race.i'm not backing him at 3.50 but might be tempted around 4.0
Race 7
Longshoreman got posted 3 wide last time and did well in the circumstances.He draws 8 of 12 but should manage to get into a decent trailing spot today.Landing has gone from Waterhouse to Van Dyke and resumes after trialing well. Imperil was good at Hawkesbury but terrible last time. You'll Never is consistent but struggles to win and the bookies darling Specific Choice make up the other chances.
Bets/Lays/Updates sent via Twitter
Royal Ascot Blog out around 6.30pm EST
Upgrades/downgrades will depend on the accuracy of those morning readings.
I had a few possibles today but all have firmed overnight and I am going to need those markets to open up a little before committing to anything today.
Moonee Valley
Race 2
I like Klishina here but I'm worried about gate 2 and the lack of pace. She's best saved up for one last run at them and may find herself bailed up a a crucial point here. At around 5.0 I would probably play but she's just a tad too short at the moment.
Race 4
Jessy Belle with a good gate and a good 3kg claimer is on top but Street Allure is greatly feared so much did she improve last time after been too keen and wide as well.Longchamp Belle and I'm Fearsome both draw poor gates but are live hopes if you can swoop home here today.
Race 5
I'd be keen on Use a Lot here if he hadn't disappointed on his comeback run.Jockey blamed the wet but he'd run a blinder the season before on a very wet track when fourth in the Ballarat cup so I'm thinking maybe he simply wasn't fit enough. Not committed at this stage
Race 6
The Cleaner is a real "street fighter" and doesn't go down easily. Sensibly he's had a month off after his tough effort last time.He goes forward as does The New Boy and there is a chance they'll soften each other up.Fast and Free is having a good prep and he's the one most likely if The Cleaner has to work too hard up front. I thought Fulgar was looking a bit sour last time at Randwick. If the Sydney/Melbourne switch sweetens him up a bit he'd go very close here.
Race 7
I wouldn't want to take a short price Le Bonsir if there was any serious juice in the ground as he's a dead set dry tracker. Elite Elle likes the sting out but draws awkwardly and is becoming a bit frustrating. That leaves Nearest the Pin (awkward gate) , Pillar Of Creation and Anlon as the others most likely.Tricky
Race 8
When Atlantis Dream won at Sandown I thought it was a big effort but subsequent winners that day came from off the pace so I'm not sure my initial thoughts were spot on. She is improving and deserves to be favourite but she's short enough with a wide draw to overcome. I keep backing Dare I Ask and she keeps running well without winning. Dunn aboard and a soft lead possible means I may get sucked in again-backs up from Wednesday
Randwick
Race 2
Cradle Me got a soft lead last time but is usually ridden back.Both her and commanding wit have crept up the handicap after two successive wins. I keep coming back to Kristy Lee here but hoped she'd be better odds. Not committed yet.
Race 6
Rugged Cross draws wide and will go back so the tempo is crucial to his chances here. He got there just last time from the rear off a slow pace but this is a much tougher race.i'm not backing him at 3.50 but might be tempted around 4.0
Race 7
Longshoreman got posted 3 wide last time and did well in the circumstances.He draws 8 of 12 but should manage to get into a decent trailing spot today.Landing has gone from Waterhouse to Van Dyke and resumes after trialing well. Imperil was good at Hawkesbury but terrible last time. You'll Never is consistent but struggles to win and the bookies darling Specific Choice make up the other chances.
Bets/Lays/Updates sent via Twitter
Royal Ascot Blog out around 6.30pm EST
Royal Ascot -Day Four
The track was watered again last night and the rail has been moved out to provide fresh ground. It's been perfect "punting" ground this week. The official going is Good to Firm with Good patches on the Round Course.
The results have been very "punter friendly" overall this week and bookies will be behind. I wish I'd been able to capitalize on it a bit more and on reflection I've passed on a couple that could have easily been backed. That's punting-lots of marginal calls and you just have to take the long term view and not let the ones that go unbacked rattle you.
Albany Stakes G3 6 Furlongs Straight
With no disrespect to the David Evans stable you don't normally expect them to be fronting up at the Royal meeting with a live hope but there's no denying that Patience Alexander has the form on the board to be hard to beat here.If this was in a top stable it would be going off around half the odds on offer here. She beat Tiggy Wiggy (narrowly beaten in the Queen Mary on Tuesday) fair and square at York last Month and looked then as though an extra furlong would suit admirably. That's emphatically the best form on offer and she's overs at 5.50 against my figures of 3.80. The Ward trained US raider Sunset Glow has to be considered as do the Godolphin duo Bitter Lake and Elite Gardens. Bazzana bolted up in a Windsor maiden on wet ground and wouldn't totally shock here.All of these will have to improve a fair bit though to match the form that Patience Alexander has already shown. The other one that I want to back here is the Irish raider Sexy Legs who was just outbobbed in a good maiden at The Curragh after tanking through the race.Fitter and a live chance.
Advised Bets: Patience Alexander 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Sexy Legs 0.55 units at 9.50 or better -monitor on Betfair
Wolferton Handicap Listed One Mile 2 Furlongs Round Course
Bold Sniper owned by the Queen will have had this as his target for some time.He ran well over shorter on his seasonal debut and he'll be hard to beat here. He's given the impression of been a bit tricky though and I don't want to get involved with him at 3.30. Cafe Society should have beaten him at Ascot last season when most unlucky although the weights are more in Bold Snipers favour today.
Cafe Society has just been sold to race for the Gai Waterhouse yard and although he hasn't left the UK yet he's listed as been trained by Waterhouse today. He had a soft win a month ago at Windsor prior to being sold and he's definitely a horse you want to have onside.Drops back a bit in trip here but that doesn't concern me. I liked the fact that he was ridden a bit closer at Windsor and doubt Waterhouse will want him ridden out the back as he was most of last year.There aren't that many I can really enthuse about in this race most are pretty exposed although the other one that has to be considered is Saxo Jack who was most unlucky at Newbury in the Autumn before doing really well in Dubai.
Advised Bet; Cafe Society 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-has been backed 7.0 still available
King Edward V11 Stakes G2 One Mile 4 Furlongs Round Course
The day gets decidedly tricky from here.
What I can tell you about this race is that both Scotland and Seagull Star will have improve a fair bit to figure but both are from stables who place there horses well so are not exactly forlorn hopes.The rest all have claims of one sort or another and it's a race I cannot get a handle on at all. Pass
Coronation Stakes G1 One Mile Round Course
This is a below par renewal. I can find negatives about all of these bar My Titania and she has to improve a fair bit to win but is promising.Like the previous race it's a very hard race to weigh up with any confidence and despite it been a G1 it's an easy race to give the elbow to from a betting perspective.
Queens Vase Listed 2 Miles Round Course
Anything Mark Johnston runs here has to be seriously considered as the trainer has a very strong record in this race.His representative Hartnell is the one horse here I'm sure will stay the two mile trip. The fast ground is a worry for him though and despite his solid credentials distance wise I don't really want to back him.
Marzocco and Century are the other two with arguably the best form but both are queries at the trip.
Min Alemarat will probably stay but needs to improve and may not like the ground.
Confusing race .Pass
Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap 7 Furlongs Straight
This is almost a pin job. Russian Realm is going well but he's up in the handicap and 6.50 is way too short.I've layed him at 6.4 and think he should be in double figures. Horsted Keynes is promising but doesn't look that well handicapped to me and he's another that should be in double figures.
Watchable is probably well handicapped but the fast ground is a major worry and he's been a big drifter almost certainly for that reason. Couldn't possibly back anything here.
There's no point in sending an update as this is later out than the earlier ones this week.
Any further Bets/updates sent via Twitter during racing
The results have been very "punter friendly" overall this week and bookies will be behind. I wish I'd been able to capitalize on it a bit more and on reflection I've passed on a couple that could have easily been backed. That's punting-lots of marginal calls and you just have to take the long term view and not let the ones that go unbacked rattle you.
Albany Stakes G3 6 Furlongs Straight
With no disrespect to the David Evans stable you don't normally expect them to be fronting up at the Royal meeting with a live hope but there's no denying that Patience Alexander has the form on the board to be hard to beat here.If this was in a top stable it would be going off around half the odds on offer here. She beat Tiggy Wiggy (narrowly beaten in the Queen Mary on Tuesday) fair and square at York last Month and looked then as though an extra furlong would suit admirably. That's emphatically the best form on offer and she's overs at 5.50 against my figures of 3.80. The Ward trained US raider Sunset Glow has to be considered as do the Godolphin duo Bitter Lake and Elite Gardens. Bazzana bolted up in a Windsor maiden on wet ground and wouldn't totally shock here.All of these will have to improve a fair bit though to match the form that Patience Alexander has already shown. The other one that I want to back here is the Irish raider Sexy Legs who was just outbobbed in a good maiden at The Curragh after tanking through the race.Fitter and a live chance.
Advised Bets: Patience Alexander 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Sexy Legs 0.55 units at 9.50 or better -monitor on Betfair
Wolferton Handicap Listed One Mile 2 Furlongs Round Course
Bold Sniper owned by the Queen will have had this as his target for some time.He ran well over shorter on his seasonal debut and he'll be hard to beat here. He's given the impression of been a bit tricky though and I don't want to get involved with him at 3.30. Cafe Society should have beaten him at Ascot last season when most unlucky although the weights are more in Bold Snipers favour today.
Cafe Society has just been sold to race for the Gai Waterhouse yard and although he hasn't left the UK yet he's listed as been trained by Waterhouse today. He had a soft win a month ago at Windsor prior to being sold and he's definitely a horse you want to have onside.Drops back a bit in trip here but that doesn't concern me. I liked the fact that he was ridden a bit closer at Windsor and doubt Waterhouse will want him ridden out the back as he was most of last year.There aren't that many I can really enthuse about in this race most are pretty exposed although the other one that has to be considered is Saxo Jack who was most unlucky at Newbury in the Autumn before doing really well in Dubai.
Advised Bet; Cafe Society 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-has been backed 7.0 still available
King Edward V11 Stakes G2 One Mile 4 Furlongs Round Course
The day gets decidedly tricky from here.
What I can tell you about this race is that both Scotland and Seagull Star will have improve a fair bit to figure but both are from stables who place there horses well so are not exactly forlorn hopes.The rest all have claims of one sort or another and it's a race I cannot get a handle on at all. Pass
Coronation Stakes G1 One Mile Round Course
This is a below par renewal. I can find negatives about all of these bar My Titania and she has to improve a fair bit to win but is promising.Like the previous race it's a very hard race to weigh up with any confidence and despite it been a G1 it's an easy race to give the elbow to from a betting perspective.
Queens Vase Listed 2 Miles Round Course
Anything Mark Johnston runs here has to be seriously considered as the trainer has a very strong record in this race.His representative Hartnell is the one horse here I'm sure will stay the two mile trip. The fast ground is a worry for him though and despite his solid credentials distance wise I don't really want to back him.
Marzocco and Century are the other two with arguably the best form but both are queries at the trip.
Min Alemarat will probably stay but needs to improve and may not like the ground.
Confusing race .Pass
Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap 7 Furlongs Straight
This is almost a pin job. Russian Realm is going well but he's up in the handicap and 6.50 is way too short.I've layed him at 6.4 and think he should be in double figures. Horsted Keynes is promising but doesn't look that well handicapped to me and he's another that should be in double figures.
Watchable is probably well handicapped but the fast ground is a major worry and he's been a big drifter almost certainly for that reason. Couldn't possibly back anything here.
There's no point in sending an update as this is later out than the earlier ones this week.
Any further Bets/updates sent via Twitter during racing
Thursday 19 June 2014
Royal Ascot- Day Three Update
A nice winner sent via Twitter on the Australian racing earlier today for a 5.63 unit profit (more if you were trading on Betfair).
No change to the weather and the official going description is Good to Firm on the Straight Course and Good on the Round.
No further bets at this stage to add to the two earlier ones.
Inchila has been quite easy and is getting out to around 5.50 on Betfair so I'm monitoring her price there and she may get out a bit more.
As suggested the 10.0 about Windshear has gone and 9.0 on Betfair is the best left now and I expect he'll shorten a tad more.
Any further Bets and updates will be sent via Twitter during racing
No change to the weather and the official going description is Good to Firm on the Straight Course and Good on the Round.
No further bets at this stage to add to the two earlier ones.
Inchila has been quite easy and is getting out to around 5.50 on Betfair so I'm monitoring her price there and she may get out a bit more.
As suggested the 10.0 about Windshear has gone and 9.0 on Betfair is the best left now and I expect he'll shorten a tad more.
Any further Bets and updates will be sent via Twitter during racing
Wednesday 18 June 2014
Royal Ascot -Day Three
The track will have 4mm of water applied overnight but with dry conditions prevailing expect the third day to begin on Good to Firm going. The forecast is for more dry weather but there is a possibility of an odd shower mid afternoon.
Norfolk Stakes G2 5 Furlongs Straight
The O'Brien trained The Great War has started 1.3 and 1.11 when running out a facile winner of both his starts to date.He's around Evens to win again here. I don't think the opposition has been great but he's untested to date. Both Mukhmal and Baitha Alga have looked decent colts so this is not a one horse affair. I won't be piling into the Evens but I'm not sure I want to oppose either. Some UK bookies are going 1/4 the odds a place so an EW play on either of the two obvious alternatives may appeal to some of you.I'm passing here at this stage.
Tercentenary Stakes G3 One Mile 2 Furlongs Round Course
This is quite a tight contest on the figures that these have achieved so far. The one that looks sure to have more to offer is Cannock Chase but the market is alive to him already and at around 3.75 is about the same as my figures which are factoring in a length or so improvement on what he has achieved so far. He may well start shorter. Barley Mow, Mutakayyef, Cloundscape, Obliterator, Somewhat and Postponed all have legitimate hopes. Will probably pass here.
Ribblesdale Stakes G2 One Mile 4 Furlongs Round Course
Inchila ran a mighty race in the Oaks at Epsom meeting traffic more than once down the straight. A clear run would have seen her running second to the impressive Taghrooda and form wise she is a stand out here. She draws out and is a get back type so the lack of obvious pace is a serious concern but she's on offer at 4.50 generally and 5.0 in some places and that's definite overs.The French filly Vazira is very promising and the O'Brien trained Bracelet should improve a good deal over this trip.
I'll stick with the proven classic form and hope she's close enough to them to mount a challenge in the last furlong.
Advised Bet: Inchila 1.35 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Gold Cup G1 Two Miles 4 Furlongs
Leading Light heads the market and as a runaway winner of the Queens Vase here last year before going on to take out the St Leger he's clearly the horse to beat. At a best priced 2.25 he's plenty short enough though especially considering he draws the outside gate.
This is a stronger race than last year when Estimate won but she was very progressive going into that race and despite not having had a run this year it's unlikely she will lack in fitness with her trainer having only this race in mind for her.
Tac de Boistron would be a clear top pick were it not for the fast ground. He's been a steady improver and his latest effort at York on a genuinely Good surface suggests he doesn't have to have a very wet track to show his best.He's a very big price now because of the ground and that may be a bit of an overreaction.
Brown Panther is unproven at the trip but he's a live chance if he does stay. He's good in the wet but effective on dry too.
I'm still undecided what I'm doing here and want to give this race a bit more thought.I'm pretty sure the winner comes from one of these four though.
Britannia Handicap One Mile Straight
This has been a very good race for me over the years but disappointingly I can't find anything this year that I want to back. It looks incredibly open and complex. Looks like everything here will start in double figures and at this stage it looks a race to avoid.
King George V Stakes (Handicap) One Mile 4 Furlongs
I've been waiting for Windshear to step up to a mile and a half which he does here. I groaned when I saw he'd drawn really wide but that is countered to some extent by the likelihood of a solid pace. He'll have to go back but the chance to run on should be there.There are a few you can give hopes to here but I'll trust R. Hughes to get the steering and timing right with Windshear. Wrangler is a live hope if he handles fast ground
Advised Bet: Windshear 0.75 units at 7.0 or better. plenty of 9.0 and some 10.0 on offer-shop around but don't leave it too late as I doubt those odds will be available close to off time.
There will be an update around 7pm Australian EST
Norfolk Stakes G2 5 Furlongs Straight
The O'Brien trained The Great War has started 1.3 and 1.11 when running out a facile winner of both his starts to date.He's around Evens to win again here. I don't think the opposition has been great but he's untested to date. Both Mukhmal and Baitha Alga have looked decent colts so this is not a one horse affair. I won't be piling into the Evens but I'm not sure I want to oppose either. Some UK bookies are going 1/4 the odds a place so an EW play on either of the two obvious alternatives may appeal to some of you.I'm passing here at this stage.
Tercentenary Stakes G3 One Mile 2 Furlongs Round Course
This is quite a tight contest on the figures that these have achieved so far. The one that looks sure to have more to offer is Cannock Chase but the market is alive to him already and at around 3.75 is about the same as my figures which are factoring in a length or so improvement on what he has achieved so far. He may well start shorter. Barley Mow, Mutakayyef, Cloundscape, Obliterator, Somewhat and Postponed all have legitimate hopes. Will probably pass here.
Ribblesdale Stakes G2 One Mile 4 Furlongs Round Course
Inchila ran a mighty race in the Oaks at Epsom meeting traffic more than once down the straight. A clear run would have seen her running second to the impressive Taghrooda and form wise she is a stand out here. She draws out and is a get back type so the lack of obvious pace is a serious concern but she's on offer at 4.50 generally and 5.0 in some places and that's definite overs.The French filly Vazira is very promising and the O'Brien trained Bracelet should improve a good deal over this trip.
I'll stick with the proven classic form and hope she's close enough to them to mount a challenge in the last furlong.
Advised Bet: Inchila 1.35 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Gold Cup G1 Two Miles 4 Furlongs
Leading Light heads the market and as a runaway winner of the Queens Vase here last year before going on to take out the St Leger he's clearly the horse to beat. At a best priced 2.25 he's plenty short enough though especially considering he draws the outside gate.
This is a stronger race than last year when Estimate won but she was very progressive going into that race and despite not having had a run this year it's unlikely she will lack in fitness with her trainer having only this race in mind for her.
Tac de Boistron would be a clear top pick were it not for the fast ground. He's been a steady improver and his latest effort at York on a genuinely Good surface suggests he doesn't have to have a very wet track to show his best.He's a very big price now because of the ground and that may be a bit of an overreaction.
Brown Panther is unproven at the trip but he's a live chance if he does stay. He's good in the wet but effective on dry too.
I'm still undecided what I'm doing here and want to give this race a bit more thought.I'm pretty sure the winner comes from one of these four though.
Britannia Handicap One Mile Straight
This has been a very good race for me over the years but disappointingly I can't find anything this year that I want to back. It looks incredibly open and complex. Looks like everything here will start in double figures and at this stage it looks a race to avoid.
King George V Stakes (Handicap) One Mile 4 Furlongs
I've been waiting for Windshear to step up to a mile and a half which he does here. I groaned when I saw he'd drawn really wide but that is countered to some extent by the likelihood of a solid pace. He'll have to go back but the chance to run on should be there.There are a few you can give hopes to here but I'll trust R. Hughes to get the steering and timing right with Windshear. Wrangler is a live hope if he handles fast ground
Advised Bet: Windshear 0.75 units at 7.0 or better. plenty of 9.0 and some 10.0 on offer-shop around but don't leave it too late as I doubt those odds will be available close to off time.
There will be an update around 7pm Australian EST
Royal Ascot Day Two -Update
Slight drizzle early morning keeps the official going as Good. Expect it to be Good to Firm by the time racing gets underway.
It's not an easy day with just two advised bets at this stage. Abseil for 0.85 units at 6.0 or better in the Royal Hunt Cup (Race 5) and I tweeted through earlier 1.20 units at 4.40 or better on Anthem Alexander in the Queen Mary (Race 2) .
Any further Bets/updates sent via Twitter during Racing
It's not an easy day with just two advised bets at this stage. Abseil for 0.85 units at 6.0 or better in the Royal Hunt Cup (Race 5) and I tweeted through earlier 1.20 units at 4.40 or better on Anthem Alexander in the Queen Mary (Race 2) .
Any further Bets/updates sent via Twitter during Racing
Tuesday 17 June 2014
Royal Ascot-Day Two
Not a flying start to the meeting for me but no major damage done and still another four days to go to redress the balance.
Dry conditions will see the current Good upgrade to Good to Firm. So perfect punting ground likely for the next few days and hopefully I can capitalize on it.
Jersey Stakes G3 7 Furlongs Straight
Both Muwaary (Gosden) and Mustajeed (Weld) come here off very sound efforts in the French and Irish guineas respectively. They head the market and deservedly so as both are trained by seasoned pro's who tend to place their horses well.Back from G1 to G3 both can be expected to be very competitive here.
The drying ground will probably be viewed as a negative for both Musical Comedy and That Is The Spirit but both are promising and neither would totally shock here. Surdiman was a very good 2-y-o but was a bit disappointing reappearing.He'll be fitter and the drying conditions should help him.
Redbrook won a Listed event in France and almost certainly has more to offer.
I've struggled with this race over many years and although the obvious does win occasionally it's generally challenging for the form student. Winners are rarely complete outsiders just a tad difficult to find. I'll be passing here.
Queen Mary Stakes G2 5 Furlongs Straight
Wesley Ward's well backed Hootenanny ran away with yesterday's Windor Castle Stakes so it's no surprise that his Spanish Pipedream has shortened up a fair bit for this event.Getting an accurate handle on US juvenile form is very difficult but at around the current 3.75 on Betfair I'd suggest there is little value there now.
Tiggy Wiggy is a useful filly and she's got figures very close to what is required generally to win this.Anthem Alexander was second favourite to an O'Brien hotpot when winning her maiden in explosive style at Tipperary.That win was very impressive and I don't really want to be opposing her here.I'm not yet committed to backing her but if I do bet here it will be her that I'll be with I think.
Harry's Moonlight from a stable that had a 2-y-o winner yesterday has to be seriously considered and Blue Agean and Dangerous Moonlight are other possibilities.
Prince Of Wales's Stakes G1 One Mile 2 Furlongs Round Course
Treve is an outstanding racehorse and if she runs up to her form of last season then this should be a simple task for her.Fast ground isn't a problem as she's handled it well before. I won't be playing here as odds on shot's only ever appeal if I'm sure they are on an upward spiral. Here you relying on her showing what she did last year. Mukhadram ran very well in this race last year and ran a fine race when second in Dubai's World Cup Magician is a Breeders Cup winner who'll be much better suited back on a dry track than when going under in the wet last time. If The Fugue finds her best form she'd be entitled to figure here. Can't oppose Treve but won't be backing either.
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes G2 One Mile Straight
Sky Lantern has the best form- just. She's a 4-y-o filly resuming and has a Group 1 penalty to carry as well. She's a very good filly on her day and a will be tough to beat if she returns in form.
There is little between Esoterique and Integral on their recent Newmarket clash and both will run well here.Purr Along and Fiesolana don't have to find that much to be factors here. Certify looked very promising until disappointing in Dubai last time. Tricky race and hard to be confident.
Royal Hunt Cup Handicap One Mile Straight
I'm unreservedly with the favourite Abseil here. Most of these are fully exposed but Abseil still has plenty more to come and a mark of 97 looks generous given his potential. He got too far back on his reappearance at Chester and scrambled home at Epsom last time after getting unbalanced on the camber in the last furlong.This track will suit him much better and he looks certain to be a major player here. 6.50 may seem skinny odds in a 30 runner handicap but over the years the well handicapped improving types do very well in these competitive Royal Ascot handicaps providing the ground is decent.
Advised Bet: Abseil 0.85 units at 6.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Sandrigham Handicap Listed One Mile Straight
Muteela, Crowley's Law and Odisseia have all been solid recent winners and have sound claims despite the handicapper having his say. I couldn't put anyone off any of these three but all face a harder task here and there are any number of hope's in what is a very tricky race to assess.Very difficult race and I will not be playing here.
Dry conditions will see the current Good upgrade to Good to Firm. So perfect punting ground likely for the next few days and hopefully I can capitalize on it.
Jersey Stakes G3 7 Furlongs Straight
Both Muwaary (Gosden) and Mustajeed (Weld) come here off very sound efforts in the French and Irish guineas respectively. They head the market and deservedly so as both are trained by seasoned pro's who tend to place their horses well.Back from G1 to G3 both can be expected to be very competitive here.
The drying ground will probably be viewed as a negative for both Musical Comedy and That Is The Spirit but both are promising and neither would totally shock here. Surdiman was a very good 2-y-o but was a bit disappointing reappearing.He'll be fitter and the drying conditions should help him.
Redbrook won a Listed event in France and almost certainly has more to offer.
I've struggled with this race over many years and although the obvious does win occasionally it's generally challenging for the form student. Winners are rarely complete outsiders just a tad difficult to find. I'll be passing here.
Queen Mary Stakes G2 5 Furlongs Straight
Wesley Ward's well backed Hootenanny ran away with yesterday's Windor Castle Stakes so it's no surprise that his Spanish Pipedream has shortened up a fair bit for this event.Getting an accurate handle on US juvenile form is very difficult but at around the current 3.75 on Betfair I'd suggest there is little value there now.
Tiggy Wiggy is a useful filly and she's got figures very close to what is required generally to win this.Anthem Alexander was second favourite to an O'Brien hotpot when winning her maiden in explosive style at Tipperary.That win was very impressive and I don't really want to be opposing her here.I'm not yet committed to backing her but if I do bet here it will be her that I'll be with I think.
Harry's Moonlight from a stable that had a 2-y-o winner yesterday has to be seriously considered and Blue Agean and Dangerous Moonlight are other possibilities.
Prince Of Wales's Stakes G1 One Mile 2 Furlongs Round Course
Treve is an outstanding racehorse and if she runs up to her form of last season then this should be a simple task for her.Fast ground isn't a problem as she's handled it well before. I won't be playing here as odds on shot's only ever appeal if I'm sure they are on an upward spiral. Here you relying on her showing what she did last year. Mukhadram ran very well in this race last year and ran a fine race when second in Dubai's World Cup Magician is a Breeders Cup winner who'll be much better suited back on a dry track than when going under in the wet last time. If The Fugue finds her best form she'd be entitled to figure here. Can't oppose Treve but won't be backing either.
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes G2 One Mile Straight
Sky Lantern has the best form- just. She's a 4-y-o filly resuming and has a Group 1 penalty to carry as well. She's a very good filly on her day and a will be tough to beat if she returns in form.
There is little between Esoterique and Integral on their recent Newmarket clash and both will run well here.Purr Along and Fiesolana don't have to find that much to be factors here. Certify looked very promising until disappointing in Dubai last time. Tricky race and hard to be confident.
Royal Hunt Cup Handicap One Mile Straight
I'm unreservedly with the favourite Abseil here. Most of these are fully exposed but Abseil still has plenty more to come and a mark of 97 looks generous given his potential. He got too far back on his reappearance at Chester and scrambled home at Epsom last time after getting unbalanced on the camber in the last furlong.This track will suit him much better and he looks certain to be a major player here. 6.50 may seem skinny odds in a 30 runner handicap but over the years the well handicapped improving types do very well in these competitive Royal Ascot handicaps providing the ground is decent.
Advised Bet: Abseil 0.85 units at 6.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Sandrigham Handicap Listed One Mile Straight
Muteela, Crowley's Law and Odisseia have all been solid recent winners and have sound claims despite the handicapper having his say. I couldn't put anyone off any of these three but all face a harder task here and there are any number of hope's in what is a very tricky race to assess.Very difficult race and I will not be playing here.
Royal Ascot Day One-Update
As expected it's dry and warm at Ascot and the ground is now Good. Expect it to dry out as the day progresses and it will be no surprise if it isn't riding a bit faster than the official Good.
In the Queen Anne Toronado has been strong in early betting.Soft Falling Rain is a drifter out to as much as 10.0 with some bookies.
In the Kings Stand Hot Streak has been solid in betting and I expect that the best offer currently of 5.2 on Betfair will be hard to beat if the ground is a genuine Good.If it's perceived to be faster judging by the times of the earlier races than both Shea Shea and Sole Power will attract support.
I missed out the advised stakes on the earlier blog and they are as follows: Soft Falling Rain 0.60 units EW and Hot Streak 1.40 units.
Any further Bets/Updates via Twitter during racing
In the Queen Anne Toronado has been strong in early betting.Soft Falling Rain is a drifter out to as much as 10.0 with some bookies.
In the Kings Stand Hot Streak has been solid in betting and I expect that the best offer currently of 5.2 on Betfair will be hard to beat if the ground is a genuine Good.If it's perceived to be faster judging by the times of the earlier races than both Shea Shea and Sole Power will attract support.
I missed out the advised stakes on the earlier blog and they are as follows: Soft Falling Rain 0.60 units EW and Hot Streak 1.40 units.
Any further Bets/Updates via Twitter during racing
Monday 16 June 2014
Royal Ascot -Day One
Royal Ascot the most anticipated fixture in the UK flat racing calendar rolls around again and whilst other premier meetings have struggled to hold their place in the pecking order this one goes from strength to strength. It's the highlight of my racing year and provided the ground is decent it offers punters a strong opportunity to profit.
The fickle English weather looks likely to come good this year with a dry forecast until late in the week at least so whilst as always it's a very strong competitive five days the better horses should get their chance to shine.
Obviously not every race appeals as a betting medium but there definitely will be opportunities during the five days.
The ground is described as Good on the Round course and Good to Soft,,Good in places on the Straight course.With a dry night and morning I'm pretty sure the meeting will start as a general Good all over and firming up all the time
Tuesday
Queen Anne Stakes G1 One Mile Straight Course
Toronado sets the standard and has clearly the best figures. He was an excellent second at this meeting last year going down narrowly to Dawn Approach. After that effort he narrowly reversed the form with Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes. Stepped up to 10 furlongs at York and he ran poorly and was subsequently found to be coughing. He's been off since August so you have to take his well being and fitness on trust. At around Even money it's not a bet I'd be falling over to have.
Verrazano is a Coolmore acquisition.At one point prior to last year's Kentucky Derby he looked the US colt most likely to succeed. His UK debut was very promising and it'll be surprising if he doesn't run well here. Has to improve a fair bit to win though but you have to have maximum respect for the team behind him.
Soft Falling Rain looked a colt of immense promise in Dubai last year. He needed his first UK run and then blew away some useful horses in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket. He looked a sure fire G1 winner in the making that day. The wet ground was all against him at Ascot on Champions Day and that effort is best forgiven. He was a well beaten second behind Variety Club in Dubai on World Cup night but that form looks pretty good after the winners demolition job in Hong Kong.I suspect there is still a bit more to come from him.
Advised Bet: Soft Falling Rain EW at around 7.5/8.0.Shop around some bookies are paying 1/4 the odds the place.
Coventry Stakes G2 6 Furlongs Straight
Some very good horses have one this 2-y-o event and it's generally the strongest 2-y-o form to come out of the Royal meeting. There are form lines from all over and it's a difficult race to get an accurate handle on.
Kool Kompany represents the Hannon team and he probably has the best form coming into this. He had War Envoy back in third when winning in Ireland last time. War Envoy was odds on that day and seemed to lose his action a bit at the furlong.The fact that O'Brien wants to run here suggest he thinks his horse is a bit better than that latest run. The statistics are strong for any O'Brien runner in this race as he's won it 7 times in 20 years. The Wow Signal, Adaay, and Cappella Sansevero are others with realistic hopes.That said there are another handful that wouldn't totally surprise.
King's Stand Stakes G1 5 Furlongs Straight
I'm very keen on the 3-y-o Hot Streak here. He's already just about got the figures to win this and is improving all the time. His effort winning over course and distance as a 2-y-o was outstanding and backed up by a very good timefigure. He looked very good winning at Haydock after a mishap leaving the stalls and he took two lengths out of a decent field in a matter of strides.He can sit just behind the leaders here and pounce at the furlong and hopefully sprint past them.
Shea Shea has been a very consistent sprinter at the highest level and should have won more G1's than he has. He was a tad unlucky here last year being left exposed on the far side and just run down late by the admirably tough Sole Power. Twice he's been the victim of atrocious rides from Soumillon once in the July cup and last time on World Cup night in Dubai-that last effort was an absolute shocker when he was given no hope settling way too far back. Sole Power can never be ruled out so consistent and gutsy as he is.Both he and Shea Shea are well suited by the drying conditions.
I think it'll be one of these three here but I want to be with the improving Hot Streak.Not many 3-y-o's contest this but there have been some very good winners amongst the ones that have.
Advised Bet: Hot Streak around 5.0 looks overs to me.My figures have him at 3.60.
Both Shea Shea and Sole Power are viable EW alternatives if you want to play at bigger odds but I'm with Hot Streak.
St James Palace Stakes G1 One Mile Round Course
Great race and probably the best at the meeting. 7 runners but only four realistic hopes.
Kingman is around Even money to get his revenge on his Newmarket conqueror Night Of Thunder.
The Guineas at Newmarket was run on Good to Firm and there was some concern beforehand that Kingman would be better with easier ground.There wasn't much in it at the line but Night Of Thunder would have been a bit further ahead had he not hung so badly in the last 100m. On that evidence and on ground that's drying out all the time you'd think there wouldn't be too much between them again here. However, Kingman has since romped away with the Irish Guineas on a very wet track.
Toormore was second favourite at Newmarket but ran below his best. He'll probably be the leader here in what will be a tactical affair and as the highest rated 2-y-o of last season is no forlorn hope especially if he get's left alone in front.
War Command does have to find a bit to win.He's got 5 lengths to make up on Guineas form but the O'Brien horses weren't quite firing early in the season after a bout of coughing in the stable.Don't be surprised if he's much closer today.
I think Kingman is a bit too short at Evens,Night Of Thunder appeals a bit more value wise if he get's out to around 4.0 which I think he will. Toormore at around 9.0 is very dangerous if left alone in front.
I'm not committed to anything in this race yet.
Ascot Stakes Handicap Two and a half miles
This is a very tough race to unravel.It makes no appeal to me as a betting race and I can't suggest anything at all here.
One point to note though is how well horses do in this race who have been jumping. The two from that sphere with the best credential are Lieutenant Miller and the O'Brien trained Plinth.
If you had to have a bet here then a least your probably sure of a good run from Lieutenant Millar who is a very consistent performer and who ran third in this race last year.His subsequent two efforts last year were places in top notch handicaps like this one.He's fully exposed but should be around the money again.I couldn't back him however as there will almost certainly be one or two that get home before him.
Windsor Castle Stakes Listed 5 Furlongs Straight
2-y-o race with form lines coming from all over the place.
Merdon Castle just about has the best figures to date.He gave Kool Kompany (runs earlier in the Coventry) 3 pounds when going down narrowly to him at Windsor. Plenty of others to consider here though and not a race I'm keen to be involved in.This race can through up some decent priced winners-the average SP since 2001 has been 19.0 plus.
Hootenanny is very interesting over from the US.His trainer Wesley Ward has won 2-y-o races here before and anything he runs commands respect.They are usually speedballs and this one looks right in the mould. Got turned over in the wet last time but a strong winner on dry on debut. He's got the plum draw for a speed horse here 25 of 25 hard up against the stands rail. Sure to give a sight it's just a matter of if he can last home.
Doubt I'll be betting here.
I'll update the blog around an hour before racing begins
The fickle English weather looks likely to come good this year with a dry forecast until late in the week at least so whilst as always it's a very strong competitive five days the better horses should get their chance to shine.
Obviously not every race appeals as a betting medium but there definitely will be opportunities during the five days.
The ground is described as Good on the Round course and Good to Soft,,Good in places on the Straight course.With a dry night and morning I'm pretty sure the meeting will start as a general Good all over and firming up all the time
Tuesday
Queen Anne Stakes G1 One Mile Straight Course
Toronado sets the standard and has clearly the best figures. He was an excellent second at this meeting last year going down narrowly to Dawn Approach. After that effort he narrowly reversed the form with Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes. Stepped up to 10 furlongs at York and he ran poorly and was subsequently found to be coughing. He's been off since August so you have to take his well being and fitness on trust. At around Even money it's not a bet I'd be falling over to have.
Verrazano is a Coolmore acquisition.At one point prior to last year's Kentucky Derby he looked the US colt most likely to succeed. His UK debut was very promising and it'll be surprising if he doesn't run well here. Has to improve a fair bit to win though but you have to have maximum respect for the team behind him.
Soft Falling Rain looked a colt of immense promise in Dubai last year. He needed his first UK run and then blew away some useful horses in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket. He looked a sure fire G1 winner in the making that day. The wet ground was all against him at Ascot on Champions Day and that effort is best forgiven. He was a well beaten second behind Variety Club in Dubai on World Cup night but that form looks pretty good after the winners demolition job in Hong Kong.I suspect there is still a bit more to come from him.
Advised Bet: Soft Falling Rain EW at around 7.5/8.0.Shop around some bookies are paying 1/4 the odds the place.
Coventry Stakes G2 6 Furlongs Straight
Some very good horses have one this 2-y-o event and it's generally the strongest 2-y-o form to come out of the Royal meeting. There are form lines from all over and it's a difficult race to get an accurate handle on.
Kool Kompany represents the Hannon team and he probably has the best form coming into this. He had War Envoy back in third when winning in Ireland last time. War Envoy was odds on that day and seemed to lose his action a bit at the furlong.The fact that O'Brien wants to run here suggest he thinks his horse is a bit better than that latest run. The statistics are strong for any O'Brien runner in this race as he's won it 7 times in 20 years. The Wow Signal, Adaay, and Cappella Sansevero are others with realistic hopes.That said there are another handful that wouldn't totally surprise.
King's Stand Stakes G1 5 Furlongs Straight
I'm very keen on the 3-y-o Hot Streak here. He's already just about got the figures to win this and is improving all the time. His effort winning over course and distance as a 2-y-o was outstanding and backed up by a very good timefigure. He looked very good winning at Haydock after a mishap leaving the stalls and he took two lengths out of a decent field in a matter of strides.He can sit just behind the leaders here and pounce at the furlong and hopefully sprint past them.
Shea Shea has been a very consistent sprinter at the highest level and should have won more G1's than he has. He was a tad unlucky here last year being left exposed on the far side and just run down late by the admirably tough Sole Power. Twice he's been the victim of atrocious rides from Soumillon once in the July cup and last time on World Cup night in Dubai-that last effort was an absolute shocker when he was given no hope settling way too far back. Sole Power can never be ruled out so consistent and gutsy as he is.Both he and Shea Shea are well suited by the drying conditions.
I think it'll be one of these three here but I want to be with the improving Hot Streak.Not many 3-y-o's contest this but there have been some very good winners amongst the ones that have.
Advised Bet: Hot Streak around 5.0 looks overs to me.My figures have him at 3.60.
Both Shea Shea and Sole Power are viable EW alternatives if you want to play at bigger odds but I'm with Hot Streak.
St James Palace Stakes G1 One Mile Round Course
Great race and probably the best at the meeting. 7 runners but only four realistic hopes.
Kingman is around Even money to get his revenge on his Newmarket conqueror Night Of Thunder.
The Guineas at Newmarket was run on Good to Firm and there was some concern beforehand that Kingman would be better with easier ground.There wasn't much in it at the line but Night Of Thunder would have been a bit further ahead had he not hung so badly in the last 100m. On that evidence and on ground that's drying out all the time you'd think there wouldn't be too much between them again here. However, Kingman has since romped away with the Irish Guineas on a very wet track.
Toormore was second favourite at Newmarket but ran below his best. He'll probably be the leader here in what will be a tactical affair and as the highest rated 2-y-o of last season is no forlorn hope especially if he get's left alone in front.
War Command does have to find a bit to win.He's got 5 lengths to make up on Guineas form but the O'Brien horses weren't quite firing early in the season after a bout of coughing in the stable.Don't be surprised if he's much closer today.
I think Kingman is a bit too short at Evens,Night Of Thunder appeals a bit more value wise if he get's out to around 4.0 which I think he will. Toormore at around 9.0 is very dangerous if left alone in front.
I'm not committed to anything in this race yet.
Ascot Stakes Handicap Two and a half miles
This is a very tough race to unravel.It makes no appeal to me as a betting race and I can't suggest anything at all here.
One point to note though is how well horses do in this race who have been jumping. The two from that sphere with the best credential are Lieutenant Miller and the O'Brien trained Plinth.
If you had to have a bet here then a least your probably sure of a good run from Lieutenant Millar who is a very consistent performer and who ran third in this race last year.His subsequent two efforts last year were places in top notch handicaps like this one.He's fully exposed but should be around the money again.I couldn't back him however as there will almost certainly be one or two that get home before him.
Windsor Castle Stakes Listed 5 Furlongs Straight
2-y-o race with form lines coming from all over the place.
Merdon Castle just about has the best figures to date.He gave Kool Kompany (runs earlier in the Coventry) 3 pounds when going down narrowly to him at Windsor. Plenty of others to consider here though and not a race I'm keen to be involved in.This race can through up some decent priced winners-the average SP since 2001 has been 19.0 plus.
Hootenanny is very interesting over from the US.His trainer Wesley Ward has won 2-y-o races here before and anything he runs commands respect.They are usually speedballs and this one looks right in the mould. Got turned over in the wet last time but a strong winner on dry on debut. He's got the plum draw for a speed horse here 25 of 25 hard up against the stands rail. Sure to give a sight it's just a matter of if he can last home.
Doubt I'll be betting here.
I'll update the blog around an hour before racing begins
Sunday 15 June 2014
Weekly Round Up
A very quiet week after what has been a poor run since early May. Just the two bets advised all week both in Australia (nothing in the UK) and thankfully one a winning one.
One sent in the blog this week and one sent via Twitter this afternoon for a profit on the week of 3.50 units.
Royal Ascot begins Tuesday and hopefully there will be decent ground to work with.The weather forecast is good.
I'll be covering Royal Ascot in depth with an early blog going out the day before and a later blog around an hour before racing with an update.
If the ground is decent this is a meeting you can approach with real confidence.
I'll be back with a look at Tuesday's card late tomorrow.
One sent in the blog this week and one sent via Twitter this afternoon for a profit on the week of 3.50 units.
Royal Ascot begins Tuesday and hopefully there will be decent ground to work with.The weather forecast is good.
I'll be covering Royal Ascot in depth with an early blog going out the day before and a later blog around an hour before racing with an update.
If the ground is decent this is a meeting you can approach with real confidence.
I'll be back with a look at Tuesday's card late tomorrow.
Friday 13 June 2014
Flemington & Rosehill Today
Flemington is a Slow 6 downgraded from a Dead 5 this morning and more rain is likely. Rosehill is a Slow 6 and there are intermittent showers possible.
I've had a very quiet week and that's quite usual for me when I'm out of form. It's maybe not the most logical of approaches but at least you get a chance to gather your wits and realign a bit.
It's Royal Ascot next week and that's my favourite weeks racing of the year so I want to be fully prepared are ready for a huge week.
The card at Rosehill I found very difficult with only races 1 and 8 having any kind of shape to them.
I don't bet on 2-y-o's generally so Race 1 is a nono.
Race 8 is all about Excess Knowledge who's thrown in here on his UK form.His Australian debut was a real eyecatcher. The query is the ground. He won a trial last month on Heavy but when he disappointed in the St Leger at Doncaster in September (well backed 6.50 chance) the Good to Soft track was given as the reason for his poor effort.That would put me off taking a short quote but if he gets through the ground he'll be very tough to beat.
Flemington's card is pretty lacklustre too and it's going to be a deteriorating track as well.
In Race 4 Sacred Flyer looks hard to beat but having backed him around 14.0 last time when he finished second I'm not keen to play around 2.10 today.
In Race 6 Henwood is very obvious but he's 6 weeks between runs and the final of this series will surely be his main target.Will he be fully raring to go today? Has been a bit too generously priced in the market so I'd be very wary.
In Race 8 Tax Evader will be suited by the extra 100m and is clearly the one to beat. 58.5 kg's on the wet with the handful of credible alternatives all sitting on the minimum and a tricky gate means I'll be staying out.
Sorry but I don't like the day and there is nothing positive I can give you .
I've had a very quiet week and that's quite usual for me when I'm out of form. It's maybe not the most logical of approaches but at least you get a chance to gather your wits and realign a bit.
It's Royal Ascot next week and that's my favourite weeks racing of the year so I want to be fully prepared are ready for a huge week.
The card at Rosehill I found very difficult with only races 1 and 8 having any kind of shape to them.
I don't bet on 2-y-o's generally so Race 1 is a nono.
Race 8 is all about Excess Knowledge who's thrown in here on his UK form.His Australian debut was a real eyecatcher. The query is the ground. He won a trial last month on Heavy but when he disappointed in the St Leger at Doncaster in September (well backed 6.50 chance) the Good to Soft track was given as the reason for his poor effort.That would put me off taking a short quote but if he gets through the ground he'll be very tough to beat.
Flemington's card is pretty lacklustre too and it's going to be a deteriorating track as well.
In Race 4 Sacred Flyer looks hard to beat but having backed him around 14.0 last time when he finished second I'm not keen to play around 2.10 today.
In Race 6 Henwood is very obvious but he's 6 weeks between runs and the final of this series will surely be his main target.Will he be fully raring to go today? Has been a bit too generously priced in the market so I'd be very wary.
In Race 8 Tax Evader will be suited by the extra 100m and is clearly the one to beat. 58.5 kg's on the wet with the handful of credible alternatives all sitting on the minimum and a tricky gate means I'll be staying out.
Sorry but I don't like the day and there is nothing positive I can give you .
Tuesday 10 June 2014
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Before I look at today's racing I'll just tidy up the figures from last week.
Australia
Blog 0.70 unit LOSS
Tweets 3.42 unit LOSS
UK
Blog No bets advised
Tweets 3.76 PROFIT
Overall 0.36 unit LOSS on the week.
Canterbury is a Heavy 8 and it may upgrade. If you are betting there today then good luck! I found it an impossible card.
Sandown posts a Slow 6. It's dry in Melbourne so it should be drying out but I have no confidence in this new surface and you really have to watch the first couple of races to satisfy yourself that you're comfortably with what your dealing with.
Chief Steward Bailey demanding that all horses wear new shoes to better help them cope with the Sandown surface. Fills you with confidence doesn't it?
It's a typically modest midweek Winter card and hard to get excited about unless your easily excited.
Race 5
Darciwood is lightly raced and may have scope to do better but he looked a bit of a thinker to me last prep and I'm keen to take him on here with Esprit Warrior who's racing in great form,is very consistent and progressive and acts on all surfaces.6.0 is very attractive as I have at 4.0.
Millies Mann did little on her first run for Darren Weir but she's had a few weeks off since and it's interesting that he has decided to run in the city. I may have a speculative bet on her but just committed to Esprit Warrior at the moment
Advised Bet: 1.25 units on Esprit Warrior .Take the 6.0 on offer with Bet 365 if you can get it.
Further Bets/Lays and Updates via Twitter
Australia
Blog 0.70 unit LOSS
Tweets 3.42 unit LOSS
UK
Blog No bets advised
Tweets 3.76 PROFIT
Overall 0.36 unit LOSS on the week.
Canterbury is a Heavy 8 and it may upgrade. If you are betting there today then good luck! I found it an impossible card.
Sandown posts a Slow 6. It's dry in Melbourne so it should be drying out but I have no confidence in this new surface and you really have to watch the first couple of races to satisfy yourself that you're comfortably with what your dealing with.
Chief Steward Bailey demanding that all horses wear new shoes to better help them cope with the Sandown surface. Fills you with confidence doesn't it?
It's a typically modest midweek Winter card and hard to get excited about unless your easily excited.
Race 5
Darciwood is lightly raced and may have scope to do better but he looked a bit of a thinker to me last prep and I'm keen to take him on here with Esprit Warrior who's racing in great form,is very consistent and progressive and acts on all surfaces.6.0 is very attractive as I have at 4.0.
Millies Mann did little on her first run for Darren Weir but she's had a few weeks off since and it's interesting that he has decided to run in the city. I may have a speculative bet on her but just committed to Esprit Warrior at the moment
Advised Bet: 1.25 units on Esprit Warrior .Take the 6.0 on offer with Bet 365 if you can get it.
Further Bets/Lays and Updates via Twitter
Friday 6 June 2014
Stradbroke,Queensland Derby,Brisbane Cup at Eagle Farm plus Moonee Valley & Randwick
Brisbane racing has it's big day with three G1's and a couple of G2 events.Good track and a sunny so it should be a great day there.
Moonee Valley hasn't raced for a few weeks and the rail is true but it posts a Slow 6 so you will have to monitor the pattern early before committing. Rain moving in from the bay.
Randwick is a Heavy 9 and plenty of scratchings.
Only one bet early and the price has trimmed in a bit but still some value against my figures
Eagle Farm
Race 8
Knoydart was badly positioned last time and no doubt he'll be off midfield early again today from a wide gate. I don't remember this race ever being anything but truly run so I'm sure there will be enough early pace to give every horse a chance. I have him a very solid 7.0 chance here and 8.50 is on offer if you shop around
Advised Bet: Knoydart 0.70 units at 7.20 or better-take the 8.50 with Bet 365 if you can get on
I was interested in Rugged Cross and Secessio at Randwick but after scratchings those races look a bit different and the odds on offer are much less generous.
Definite possibilities at Moonee Valley and any further Bets/Lays and Updates via Twitter.
Just a word of warning if you follow any of my suggestions.I'm having a very poor run and every marginal call of late seems to be wrong.Bad runs are inevitable when your punting but they are very challenging however long you've been doing it. Allied with serious ongoing family issues I'm not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment.
Moonee Valley hasn't raced for a few weeks and the rail is true but it posts a Slow 6 so you will have to monitor the pattern early before committing. Rain moving in from the bay.
Randwick is a Heavy 9 and plenty of scratchings.
Only one bet early and the price has trimmed in a bit but still some value against my figures
Eagle Farm
Race 8
Knoydart was badly positioned last time and no doubt he'll be off midfield early again today from a wide gate. I don't remember this race ever being anything but truly run so I'm sure there will be enough early pace to give every horse a chance. I have him a very solid 7.0 chance here and 8.50 is on offer if you shop around
Advised Bet: Knoydart 0.70 units at 7.20 or better-take the 8.50 with Bet 365 if you can get on
I was interested in Rugged Cross and Secessio at Randwick but after scratchings those races look a bit different and the odds on offer are much less generous.
Definite possibilities at Moonee Valley and any further Bets/Lays and Updates via Twitter.
Just a word of warning if you follow any of my suggestions.I'm having a very poor run and every marginal call of late seems to be wrong.Bad runs are inevitable when your punting but they are very challenging however long you've been doing it. Allied with serious ongoing family issues I'm not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment.
Tuesday 3 June 2014
Sandown & Warwick Farm Today
Sandown posts a Slow 6 and there is a chance of rain later in the afternoon.Warwick Farm posts a Dead 5 and the forecast is for dry weather so there may be an upgrade there.
Not overly enthuse about anything in Sydney but I haven't completely ruled out the last race there .
Sandown has the rail back in the true position today but I'll be seeing how it plays before committing to anything there today.
The blackbookers engaged today are all at Sandown
Race 5 Atlantis Dream
Race 6 Sure You Can
Race 8 Magic Tom
Atlantis Dream was 6.0 yesterday (5.2 approx after deductions) and is 3.80 now. She'll run well and I still may back her but I'm not falling over myself to take 3.80.
Magic Tom has a live chance in the last.He 's been 7.0 into 6.0 this am but I'm not on yet as he's drawn low and the middle may be favoured by now.
A few other possibilities and Bets/Lays and Updates advised via Twitter
Not overly enthuse about anything in Sydney but I haven't completely ruled out the last race there .
Sandown has the rail back in the true position today but I'll be seeing how it plays before committing to anything there today.
The blackbookers engaged today are all at Sandown
Race 5 Atlantis Dream
Race 6 Sure You Can
Race 8 Magic Tom
Atlantis Dream was 6.0 yesterday (5.2 approx after deductions) and is 3.80 now. She'll run well and I still may back her but I'm not falling over myself to take 3.80.
Magic Tom has a live chance in the last.He 's been 7.0 into 6.0 this am but I'm not on yet as he's drawn low and the middle may be favoured by now.
A few other possibilities and Bets/Lays and Updates advised via Twitter
Sunday 1 June 2014
May Round Up & Track Watering
Not a good month either punting wise or at a personal level and one I'm very quick to put behind me. I had been chugging along nicely this year until four weeks ago and then wham. I can't go into detail about the personal stuff but events have strung me out a bit and I'm still feeling very raw.
Here are the figures for May and very sorry reading they make:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog 7 races and no winners
Stakes 7.60
LOSS 7.60
Bets advised via Twitter 35 races -4 winners
Stakes 41.90
LOSS 16.29
Monthly total for Australia 23.89 units LOSS
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog 6 races and no winners
Stakes 6.60
LOSS 6.60
Bets advised via Twitter 7 races 3 winners
Stakes 7.85
PROFIT 11.32
Monthly total for UK PROFIT 4.72 units
Overall total for May 19.17 units LOSS
Finally at last the debate about track watering is beginning to get some traction.Daniel O'Sullivan wrote an excellent article about the negative effects of RVL's policy http://trb.com.au/blog/?p=147
and Rob Waterhouse spoke about it on ABC radio's weekly racing show.UK champion jockey Richard Hughes wrote an article last week in the Racing Post slamming the BHA policy on watering.
If your betting these watering policy's are disastrous.It's not possible to water evenly so track bias is the inevitable result. Don't expect TVN to get involved in any serious debate about this as everyone there bar Mark Shean seems to follow the corporate line which is to only say positive things about everything that RVL and RNSW do.
When I first began punting 40 years ago watering was non existent and track bias wasn't a factor other than on very soft ground at certain tracks where the camber caused the rainfall to roll to the inside.
Now almost every day the TVN presenter qualifies his preview tips with comments about needing to see how the track is playing.The situation in Victoria is becoming ridiculous and RVL's integrity services headed by chief steward Terry Bailey now intend to alter the going classification to make what is now a Dead track a Good one.
Bailey's tenure as Chief Steward has been poor at best. His handling of the case against Danny Nikolic was vindictive and histrionic and whatever anyone thinks about Nikolic he hardly had a fair hearing. This proposed change to the track rating is another example of how out of touch with the punting public racing's administrators have become.
The surface at Randwick is a basket case and the new grandstand there offers nothing to the everyday racegoer. Instead of chasing millions to fund the "Championships" V'landys ought to be sorting out the mess at Randwick.
V'landy's confrontational style might have had owners,trainers and jockeys cheering after he won the race fields case but long term his tenure at the head of RNSW will be seen only in a negative light.
When the decision comes to sell of Canterbury which is the best surface to bet on in Sydney then you will know for certain who's interests the current crop of administrators are really looking after.
Here are the figures for May and very sorry reading they make:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog 7 races and no winners
Stakes 7.60
LOSS 7.60
Bets advised via Twitter 35 races -4 winners
Stakes 41.90
LOSS 16.29
Monthly total for Australia 23.89 units LOSS
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog 6 races and no winners
Stakes 6.60
LOSS 6.60
Bets advised via Twitter 7 races 3 winners
Stakes 7.85
PROFIT 11.32
Monthly total for UK PROFIT 4.72 units
Overall total for May 19.17 units LOSS
Finally at last the debate about track watering is beginning to get some traction.Daniel O'Sullivan wrote an excellent article about the negative effects of RVL's policy http://trb.com.au/blog/?p=147
and Rob Waterhouse spoke about it on ABC radio's weekly racing show.UK champion jockey Richard Hughes wrote an article last week in the Racing Post slamming the BHA policy on watering.
If your betting these watering policy's are disastrous.It's not possible to water evenly so track bias is the inevitable result. Don't expect TVN to get involved in any serious debate about this as everyone there bar Mark Shean seems to follow the corporate line which is to only say positive things about everything that RVL and RNSW do.
When I first began punting 40 years ago watering was non existent and track bias wasn't a factor other than on very soft ground at certain tracks where the camber caused the rainfall to roll to the inside.
Now almost every day the TVN presenter qualifies his preview tips with comments about needing to see how the track is playing.The situation in Victoria is becoming ridiculous and RVL's integrity services headed by chief steward Terry Bailey now intend to alter the going classification to make what is now a Dead track a Good one.
Bailey's tenure as Chief Steward has been poor at best. His handling of the case against Danny Nikolic was vindictive and histrionic and whatever anyone thinks about Nikolic he hardly had a fair hearing. This proposed change to the track rating is another example of how out of touch with the punting public racing's administrators have become.
The surface at Randwick is a basket case and the new grandstand there offers nothing to the everyday racegoer. Instead of chasing millions to fund the "Championships" V'landys ought to be sorting out the mess at Randwick.
V'landy's confrontational style might have had owners,trainers and jockeys cheering after he won the race fields case but long term his tenure at the head of RNSW will be seen only in a negative light.
When the decision comes to sell of Canterbury which is the best surface to bet on in Sydney then you will know for certain who's interests the current crop of administrators are really looking after.
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