Cup day at Bendigo today and very challenging day in prospect for punters.We start with three maidens each of which has a clear stand out form choice but all with negatives attached:-
Race 1 Star O'reilly.Only managed one run each prep-stable not firing
Race 2 Sharnee Rose.Placed 9 from 13 including third at G1-poor run latest
Race 3 Divine Moon.Third in G2 resuming-well held Listed grade latest
Anyone planning to steam into the shorts on either or all of these will need to make sure they are wearing their brown trousers today.
The supporting handicaps are super tough to unravel and make no appeal punting wise but I will be very active today on the lay side of the exchange.
The Cup is meant to be an open and competitive handicap but only 12 runners line up (conditions allow for a maximum of 18 plus 4 emergencies) and the two "top weights"are carrying only 55kg with rest all on 54.5kg.This weight compression is fast becoming an epidemic in feature handicaps and Saturday races in Victoria and is ruining the competitiveness of the racing as a result.Last week at Geelong only seven horses lined up for the Cup and predictably it was a jog and canter until the last 600m.
Practised is early favourite at 3.0. He's a progressive stayer who won well last time at Caulfield,draws well and has C Williams steering.He's rated 78 on official ratings whilst the top weight here are both rated 92 so he should be receiving 7kg but because of the compressed weights only gets 0.5kg.He's too badly handicapped to be favourite here and is far too short.
Puissance De Lune is next best at 3.3.He too is progressive and ran very well last time although beaten by an atrocious ride.This race is his Spring "Grand Final" as his owner is the race sponsor and he comes here at his peak.He too though is badly handicapped receiving only 0.5kg when he should be getting 4kg.There is a doubt about him running 2400m-his dam was a miler and bred to be one.His sire Shamadal can get horses that win over ground but he is really bred to be a 1600/2000m horse so you have to factor the doubt about the trip into his price.Drawing the outside gate means he will probably go back and rely on luck.3.30 is far too short all things consdered.
Silent Surround finished 2.8lenths fifth behind Shawardi in the G2 Herbert Power last time.This was his best ever performance and proved he stays the trip.He draws well and has D. Oliver riding.He is running off his correct handicap mark and really should be favourite.I have him 4.0 and he is generally 6.0 this morning.
Either back Silent Surround or lay both Practised and Puissance De Lune or do all three trades if your fearless!
Tuesday 30 October 2012
Sunday 28 October 2012
Betfair Markets
Regular Betfair users were thrown into confusion last Thursday afternoon with the sudden appearance of a big player on the exchange.I was only looking at markets at Ballarat and Hawksbury so I don't know if markets elsewhere were also affected.Five figure bets are not common on Betfair's provincial and country markets except on very short favourites so what happened on Thursday was very unusual.
I first noticed it in Race 5 at Ballarat when there was around a $30,000 back bet for the favourite Bea Diamond-most of it matched at odds marginally under what the corporates were offering.Having laid Bea Diamond at 2.50 expecting her to SP around 2.80 I was surprised at the money coming to back her at a shorter quote.She went down narrowly,conceding first run to the winner.
In Race 6 there was a $29,000 lay for the resuming Dark Sun who finished a well held fourth.
Race 7 was a F&M's 0-58 event so you wouldn't normally expect a lot of action there.There were 3 plays here a large lay on the resuming Chacella who finished third and $30,000 bets on the front two in the market Back Red And Black (weak in betting and all 30,000 matched at well under SP) and Manor Lady (30,000 all matched I think but a lot of it again marginally below what was on offer elsewhere).The well backed Manor Lady was the winner with the drifter Back Red And Black back in the ruck.
In the last race a $25,000 lay on the favourite Benenden (mostly unmatched) forced her out to around 3.46 before the big lay dropped of the screen to be quickly replaced by $25,000 back bet for the same horse.The action in this race looked a clear trading stratergy (force the price out,get on what you can at the overs then force it back down and lay of your liability) and it worked a treat.It also managed to wrong foot some seasoned operators including me.Benenden won easily.
There was also some unusual activity in the markets at Hawksbury that afternoon but I was concentrating on Ballarat so I cannot accurately report on what happened there.
I wonder if he/she/they will be back this week?Let's hope so-anything that increases the action on the exchange and spices up the markets has to be good thing overall I think.
I first noticed it in Race 5 at Ballarat when there was around a $30,000 back bet for the favourite Bea Diamond-most of it matched at odds marginally under what the corporates were offering.Having laid Bea Diamond at 2.50 expecting her to SP around 2.80 I was surprised at the money coming to back her at a shorter quote.She went down narrowly,conceding first run to the winner.
In Race 6 there was a $29,000 lay for the resuming Dark Sun who finished a well held fourth.
Race 7 was a F&M's 0-58 event so you wouldn't normally expect a lot of action there.There were 3 plays here a large lay on the resuming Chacella who finished third and $30,000 bets on the front two in the market Back Red And Black (weak in betting and all 30,000 matched at well under SP) and Manor Lady (30,000 all matched I think but a lot of it again marginally below what was on offer elsewhere).The well backed Manor Lady was the winner with the drifter Back Red And Black back in the ruck.
In the last race a $25,000 lay on the favourite Benenden (mostly unmatched) forced her out to around 3.46 before the big lay dropped of the screen to be quickly replaced by $25,000 back bet for the same horse.The action in this race looked a clear trading stratergy (force the price out,get on what you can at the overs then force it back down and lay of your liability) and it worked a treat.It also managed to wrong foot some seasoned operators including me.Benenden won easily.
There was also some unusual activity in the markets at Hawksbury that afternoon but I was concentrating on Ballarat so I cannot accurately report on what happened there.
I wonder if he/she/they will be back this week?Let's hope so-anything that increases the action on the exchange and spices up the markets has to be good thing overall I think.
Friday 26 October 2012
Cox Plate Day
Fantastic Cox Plate in prospect at Moonee Valley today.Very competitive and a good clash between the generations.Three 3-y-o's line up and all have live hopes.Pierro clearly has the strongest form of the three but the 2040m trip has to be a big query.All To Hard had all the favours when running down Pierro last time but perhaps he's the more likely of the two to run out a strong 2040m.He'll need a lot of luck from the back of the field though.Proisir is the least exposed of the three and the one with the most scope to improve but he has a tricky barrier and will need to begin well to find a good position.
Green Moon is too short at 5.00 I think.He was a quality handicapper in England and whilst he may have improved I doubt he has the class required to win a Cox Plate.More Joyous is likely to be found wanting in a high pressure race at 2040m unless there is no pressure early.Shoot Out is hope and overs at 18.0-He's a GI winner this prep,gets the trip well and maps well from gate 4.I have him at 11.0The horse I keep coming back to is Ocean Park.He's lightly raced and still has more to offer,gets the trip and is a proven G1 horse.He the one I'm sure that will finish around the money.Best price on offer this morning is 6.50.I have him at 5.0.Really strong competitive race this year.
Value runners both to be ridden by world class jockeys are:-
Ocean Park at 6.50 and Shoot Out at 18.0
Rangirangdoo has the best credentials in the G2 Mile event (race 7).I'd be very confident of him putting this field away were it not for the presence of the Kiwi mare Silent Achiever.She may need another run to peak but she is a really high class mare.If she's fully wound up I doubt there is much between them.I'm going to monitor the betting here before making any decisions.
In race 2 the Paul Perry trained I Get Around has been very well backed.Perry has a very good record when raiding Melbourne Spring races and this horse is very progressive.He is first up here but if he's to win has to improve around 5kg on what he achieved to date.I'd rather have the consistent and admirable Obsidian Dragon at a top priced 7.0 (was 8.50 earlier) who was strong winner last time and is proven round Moonee Valley.I rate her a 5.0 chance
Green Moon is too short at 5.00 I think.He was a quality handicapper in England and whilst he may have improved I doubt he has the class required to win a Cox Plate.More Joyous is likely to be found wanting in a high pressure race at 2040m unless there is no pressure early.Shoot Out is hope and overs at 18.0-He's a GI winner this prep,gets the trip well and maps well from gate 4.I have him at 11.0The horse I keep coming back to is Ocean Park.He's lightly raced and still has more to offer,gets the trip and is a proven G1 horse.He the one I'm sure that will finish around the money.Best price on offer this morning is 6.50.I have him at 5.0.Really strong competitive race this year.
Value runners both to be ridden by world class jockeys are:-
Ocean Park at 6.50 and Shoot Out at 18.0
Rangirangdoo has the best credentials in the G2 Mile event (race 7).I'd be very confident of him putting this field away were it not for the presence of the Kiwi mare Silent Achiever.She may need another run to peak but she is a really high class mare.If she's fully wound up I doubt there is much between them.I'm going to monitor the betting here before making any decisions.
In race 2 the Paul Perry trained I Get Around has been very well backed.Perry has a very good record when raiding Melbourne Spring races and this horse is very progressive.He is first up here but if he's to win has to improve around 5kg on what he achieved to date.I'd rather have the consistent and admirable Obsidian Dragon at a top priced 7.0 (was 8.50 earlier) who was strong winner last time and is proven round Moonee Valley.I rate her a 5.0 chance
Manikato Night At Moonee Valley
Good track posted for this evening's Manikato Stakes meeting at Moonee Valley but the forecast is for rain and the radar shows it falling over Melbourne now.Uncertainty over track conditions makes a tricky card even harder.
Buffering is a worthy favourite in the Manikato Stakes.He's got the inside berth and his on pace style means he's likely to have first run on the majority of the field.Pressure will go here from the 600m mark though and I don't think Buffering deserves to be quite as short as he is.He's a general 2.00 quote whereas I have him at 2.50.If the ground doesn't get worse than Dead I shall be having a little on Lone Rock at around the 10.0 quote.She's the only bit of value I can find in the race.
I like to be more enthusiastic punting wise on what is an excellent card but I've really struggled to find much value in the early markets especially with the threat of rain looming
Buffering is a worthy favourite in the Manikato Stakes.He's got the inside berth and his on pace style means he's likely to have first run on the majority of the field.Pressure will go here from the 600m mark though and I don't think Buffering deserves to be quite as short as he is.He's a general 2.00 quote whereas I have him at 2.50.If the ground doesn't get worse than Dead I shall be having a little on Lone Rock at around the 10.0 quote.She's the only bit of value I can find in the race.
I like to be more enthusiastic punting wise on what is an excellent card but I've really struggled to find much value in the early markets especially with the threat of rain looming
Wednesday 24 October 2012
F&M's Day At Ballarat
All the races at Ballarat today are restricted to female horses.No colts,horses or geldings allowed. This day has become a regular October fixture at Ballarat .I'll bet the bloke that came up with the idea for this "novelty" isn't a serious punter.I'm wary of F&M's races from a betting point of view and I usually look for extra value in the odds before betting in them.
Predictably,it's a very tricky card and until the last race I'll be operating only on the lay side of the exchange.
In the last I will be backing Benenden if I can get 3.2 or better.I thought her Cranbourne win was very strong and she will improve a lot over the extra 200m today.Gate 1 gives her the chance to position handy.She is a 3-y-o taking on her elders so that is a concern but if the odds are available I'm keen to play.
Predictably,it's a very tricky card and until the last race I'll be operating only on the lay side of the exchange.
In the last I will be backing Benenden if I can get 3.2 or better.I thought her Cranbourne win was very strong and she will improve a lot over the extra 200m today.Gate 1 gives her the chance to position handy.She is a 3-y-o taking on her elders so that is a concern but if the odds are available I'm keen to play.
Tuesday 23 October 2012
Geelong Cup Day
Ripper day in prospect at Geelong for the Cup meeting.
What a strange race the Cup is this year with only seven runners.Usually it's a maximum field with the emergencies sweating on a run.Quality over quantity this year.Very tricky race with none of them natural leaders,quite the opposite in fact.In the circumstances I think Chateau Margaux is the one most likely to go forward and if left alone may outsprint them.She's around 13.0 this morning which seems very good value-I rate her 8.0.With the likelihood of a tactical race I'm not interested in anything at a short quote here.
The early races before the cup look very tricky and I will be staying out of them from a backing point of view although there may be an opportunity to lay one or two at short quotes in some very difficult races.
I am keen on the chances of Koonoomoo in race 8.It's a Fillies and Mares event which always strips a little bit of my confidence away but not enough to put me off backing this one.She has clearly the best form,Good/Dead ideal,draws perfectly, has a progressive profile and Craig williams rides-plenty to like! I rate her a 2.80 chance so the current 3.60 on Betfair looks attractive.Rain is forecast for later- if it comes early and the ground begins to soften then my confidence would be dented and I'd probably be looking to hedge back out.If it stays dry-no problems.
In the last race New York is another progressive type who looks hard to beat.Last time he powered over the top to win a race that was set up for a closer so he may have been a bit flattered by that victory.Today he has gate 1 and can position up just behind the lead.He's going to be in the right spot and has shown before that he can quicken up well off a steady pace.I really like him today but he's been well found in the market at 2.60.Really need 3.0 to back him which may be possible on Betfair for a bit of money during the afternoon but doubt the bookies will offer much more than the current quote.
What a strange race the Cup is this year with only seven runners.Usually it's a maximum field with the emergencies sweating on a run.Quality over quantity this year.Very tricky race with none of them natural leaders,quite the opposite in fact.In the circumstances I think Chateau Margaux is the one most likely to go forward and if left alone may outsprint them.She's around 13.0 this morning which seems very good value-I rate her 8.0.With the likelihood of a tactical race I'm not interested in anything at a short quote here.
The early races before the cup look very tricky and I will be staying out of them from a backing point of view although there may be an opportunity to lay one or two at short quotes in some very difficult races.
I am keen on the chances of Koonoomoo in race 8.It's a Fillies and Mares event which always strips a little bit of my confidence away but not enough to put me off backing this one.She has clearly the best form,Good/Dead ideal,draws perfectly, has a progressive profile and Craig williams rides-plenty to like! I rate her a 2.80 chance so the current 3.60 on Betfair looks attractive.Rain is forecast for later- if it comes early and the ground begins to soften then my confidence would be dented and I'd probably be looking to hedge back out.If it stays dry-no problems.
In the last race New York is another progressive type who looks hard to beat.Last time he powered over the top to win a race that was set up for a closer so he may have been a bit flattered by that victory.Today he has gate 1 and can position up just behind the lead.He's going to be in the right spot and has shown before that he can quicken up well off a steady pace.I really like him today but he's been well found in the market at 2.60.Really need 3.0 to back him which may be possible on Betfair for a bit of money during the afternoon but doubt the bookies will offer much more than the current quote.
Monday 22 October 2012
Champion of Champions?
For a short time during Frankel's final appearance last Saturday I thought it was all going to unravel and end in tears.He missed the start markedly and mid race for a few strides didn't seem to be going that well.One the field straightened up however he came there tanking along and soon put the race away.Whilst it wasn't as spectacular as the York victory it was most emphatic and considering the state of the ground and the opposition you couldn't possibly do anything but give it a massive "thumbs up".
Has there ever been a better racehorse?He's been utterly dominant since his debut back at Newmarket in August two years ago.His 2000 Guineas win was simply breathtaking.This year he's been even better, running away with the Queen Anne at the Royal meeting by 11 lenths with the outstanding Excelebration a distant second.When stepped up to 10 furlongs at York in August he was equally magnificent effortlessly routing a quality field.
Frankel is the best I've seen in my lifetime and perhaps he is the all time equine " Champion of Champions".
Has there ever been a better racehorse?He's been utterly dominant since his debut back at Newmarket in August two years ago.His 2000 Guineas win was simply breathtaking.This year he's been even better, running away with the Queen Anne at the Royal meeting by 11 lenths with the outstanding Excelebration a distant second.When stepped up to 10 furlongs at York in August he was equally magnificent effortlessly routing a quality field.
Frankel is the best I've seen in my lifetime and perhaps he is the all time equine " Champion of Champions".
Saturday 20 October 2012
Seymour Cup Day
Excellent field assembles today for the Darley Semour Cup.Early markets have the progressive Callanish a 1.95 chance!Anyone drawing a speed map for this race is unlikely to be jumping in to lay the marginal odds on.Callanish has the outside gate in a field of 10 and if he goes forward he is strong chance to find himself posted wide.His last win was very dominant but he did get a soft lead there and that is unlikely to be happening today.The positives are his highly progressive form and that he seemed much better last time on fast ground which he gets again today.He's the obvious but I'd need at least 3.50 to be thinking of being interested in him from that gate today.The opposition is strong.
Launay is a seasoned performer in this grade,Over Quota improved leaps and bounds last prep and resumed nicely.Lord Of Brazil is very progressive and still has plenty more to offer whilst Amah Rock always attracts support and has solid form and a good gate.The Waterhouse runner Tribal Rock is a promising horse backing up after a good run at Caulfield on Wednesday-he's got a bit to find on the book but is lightly raced,has more to offer and may be fitter.
Value runners in a tricky race are Lord of Brazil around 11.0 and Over Quota around 13.0
Launay is a seasoned performer in this grade,Over Quota improved leaps and bounds last prep and resumed nicely.Lord Of Brazil is very progressive and still has plenty more to offer whilst Amah Rock always attracts support and has solid form and a good gate.The Waterhouse runner Tribal Rock is a promising horse backing up after a good run at Caulfield on Wednesday-he's got a bit to find on the book but is lightly raced,has more to offer and may be fitter.
Value runners in a tricky race are Lord of Brazil around 11.0 and Over Quota around 13.0
Friday 19 October 2012
Caulfield Cup
Family issues have conspired to disrupt form study for today so I'll stick to the Cup.
Polarised opinions around the favourite Glencadam Gold.Dominic Beirne who's been on fire this Spring with his Betfair column rates him a 3.25 chance.Some other eminent judges think the current best quote of 5.0 is big unders.I have a lot of respect for Beirne's opinions but 3.25 has me mystified.I couldn't back this horse under 11.0 and he is woefully short in my opinion.Sure he ran away with the Metropolitan but the penalty and the wide barrier make it very difficult.On his form in England he has plenty to find against the European raiders engaged in this race so your banking on Waterhouse having improved him around 8 to 10 lenths.Maybe but not for me.
Dunaden despite top weight looks well handicapped.His Hong Kong win at this trip in December proved him to be a genuine Group 1 contender.The draw makes it difficult but 12.50 on Betfair is overs-I have him at 7.0.Had he drawn well I'd be rating him around 4.0.
My idea of the value runners in order of preference are:
Dunaden currently 12.50
Folding Gear 36.0
Niwot 27.0
Odds are Betfairs current quotes.
Lights Of Heaven and My Quest For Peace were attractively priced earlier in the week and both are live hopes but both are trading slightly under 10.0 now and at that level they have found their correct mark I think.
Polarised opinions around the favourite Glencadam Gold.Dominic Beirne who's been on fire this Spring with his Betfair column rates him a 3.25 chance.Some other eminent judges think the current best quote of 5.0 is big unders.I have a lot of respect for Beirne's opinions but 3.25 has me mystified.I couldn't back this horse under 11.0 and he is woefully short in my opinion.Sure he ran away with the Metropolitan but the penalty and the wide barrier make it very difficult.On his form in England he has plenty to find against the European raiders engaged in this race so your banking on Waterhouse having improved him around 8 to 10 lenths.Maybe but not for me.
Dunaden despite top weight looks well handicapped.His Hong Kong win at this trip in December proved him to be a genuine Group 1 contender.The draw makes it difficult but 12.50 on Betfair is overs-I have him at 7.0.Had he drawn well I'd be rating him around 4.0.
My idea of the value runners in order of preference are:
Dunaden currently 12.50
Folding Gear 36.0
Niwot 27.0
Odds are Betfairs current quotes.
Lights Of Heaven and My Quest For Peace were attractively priced earlier in the week and both are live hopes but both are trading slightly under 10.0 now and at that level they have found their correct mark I think.
Tuesday 16 October 2012
Caulfield 1000 Guineas Day
On paper today's renewal of Caulfield's 1000 Guineas is the weakest I can remember.It has more the look of a Group 3 than a G1.Perhaps if anything is to come out of the race looking a genuine G1 performer it might be Molto Bene who was excellent last finishing powerfully of a wide run.Her get back style is a worry in race where there is no guarantee of a strong pace but she does draw well and has the right pilot on board.She'll love the mile and is the one to beat.She's a little skinny at around 4.25 but she may trade around 5.20 on Betfair and at that price I would be playing.
In race 5 I think Specter is big overs at 15.0.He'll probably press on and lead here and he may take some running down.He looked big resuming and was run down after booting clear on the turn.He's 3.90 a place if you shop around.Great EW value this one today.
Mares races are often a trap but it's hard to look beyond Oasis Bloom and Star Of Giselle in Race 7.These two will almost certainly dominate from the front.It's 3.10 each of two in early markets.I think Oasis Bloom should clearly be on top at around 2.70.Currently 3.20 on Betfair which I'll be dipping into.
In Race 4 I cannot go against Sertorius or Tribal Rock.I think one or the other will win but don't want to get involved at the cramped odds here.
Super Cool looks hard to beat in Race 3 but again 2.6 just doesn't appeal.
In the final event the import Picture Editor is very interesting at 11.0.He ran on well at MV last time and his UK form is very good for a race like this.He may be better over further in time and he may be giving them a start but 11.0 is way too big.
In race 5 I think Specter is big overs at 15.0.He'll probably press on and lead here and he may take some running down.He looked big resuming and was run down after booting clear on the turn.He's 3.90 a place if you shop around.Great EW value this one today.
Mares races are often a trap but it's hard to look beyond Oasis Bloom and Star Of Giselle in Race 7.These two will almost certainly dominate from the front.It's 3.10 each of two in early markets.I think Oasis Bloom should clearly be on top at around 2.70.Currently 3.20 on Betfair which I'll be dipping into.
In Race 4 I cannot go against Sertorius or Tribal Rock.I think one or the other will win but don't want to get involved at the cramped odds here.
Super Cool looks hard to beat in Race 3 but again 2.6 just doesn't appeal.
In the final event the import Picture Editor is very interesting at 11.0.He ran on well at MV last time and his UK form is very good for a race like this.He may be better over further in time and he may be giving them a start but 11.0 is way too big.
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