Good competitive cards today.Caulfield is posted a Dead 4 and may upgrade.Randwick returns after a lengthy absence and is posted a Dead 4 and with showers around I expect it to stay in the dead range.
March ended yesterday and it was a month to forget-I'll round up the results tomorrow and very sorry reading it'll make.April begins today so here's hoping for better this month.
I'm short on time today so just the bets without the reasoning behind them
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 6 Unscrupulous 1.25 units to win at 4.20 or better -4.80 on offer now
Race 8 Secret Toy Bizness 0.60 units to win at 9.0 or better
I took 31.0 early still good value at 19.0 with Bet365
Randwick Race 8 Mouro 1.25 units to win at 4.20 or better -5.0 on offer at the TAB
Sunday 31 March 2013
Friday 29 March 2013
Guineas,Galaxy Day at Rosehill & Caulfield
Two Group 1's at Rosehill today the Guineas and the Galaxy.Track is rated Good 3 and no threat of rain at the moment but a chance of light showers later.Expect fast ground.I spent a long time on this card yesterday but couldn't find anything I wanted to back at the early prices.It's a great day's racing but it's a tough card if your punting so I'll be concentrating on the "lay" side of the exchange here today.
Caulfield is a Dead 4.It may upgrade but there is also the chance of showers.
Race 1
There is no obvious pace in this race which dampens my confidence in Goldoni.He is clearly the horse to beat.His Australian debut was very good when finishing hard over 1400m behind Centennial Park.That race was a better standard than this one and the extra 300m here suits him better.Prizum,Cosmic Causeway and Gold Sand are the other hopes.If I knew they were going to be positive on Goldoni I'd back him at 3.0 but as I don't know I'll probably pass.
Race 4
Bradman won a competitive race at Bendigo last time but has been raised 13 points as a result.Considering they all finished in a heap in that race I think he's been harshly treated.Pronto Pronto,Floatmyboat,Churchill Express and Delagos all finished within less than 2 lengths of Bradman in that race.Crystal Web has good solid recent form but has an awkward gate to deal.Both Murcielaga and Royal Island may have more to offer.The Adelaide raider Last Day is the one I like most here.He was a bit flat last time in a Group 2 event on Adelaide Cup day but his three previous efforts have all been good.He has the potential to be the best horse in this field and he's available at 5.00 against my rated price of 4.20.
Race 8
Bass Straight should be beating this field.His form around the best 3-y-old's in Victoria is very solid.The 2000m will really suit.The danger is He'snotthemessiah who was very good winning his maiden.The second there Duplicity Jones ran away with a city maiden on Wednesday.I'll be saving on him.
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 4 Last Day 1.20 units to win at 4.40 or better-take the 5.0 on offer
Race 8 Bass Straight 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better
50% at the 3.80 now and shop on Betfair for 4.0 plus with other 50%
He'snotthemessiah 0.35 units saver at around 7.0
Caulfield is a Dead 4.It may upgrade but there is also the chance of showers.
Race 1
There is no obvious pace in this race which dampens my confidence in Goldoni.He is clearly the horse to beat.His Australian debut was very good when finishing hard over 1400m behind Centennial Park.That race was a better standard than this one and the extra 300m here suits him better.Prizum,Cosmic Causeway and Gold Sand are the other hopes.If I knew they were going to be positive on Goldoni I'd back him at 3.0 but as I don't know I'll probably pass.
Race 4
Bradman won a competitive race at Bendigo last time but has been raised 13 points as a result.Considering they all finished in a heap in that race I think he's been harshly treated.Pronto Pronto,Floatmyboat,Churchill Express and Delagos all finished within less than 2 lengths of Bradman in that race.Crystal Web has good solid recent form but has an awkward gate to deal.Both Murcielaga and Royal Island may have more to offer.The Adelaide raider Last Day is the one I like most here.He was a bit flat last time in a Group 2 event on Adelaide Cup day but his three previous efforts have all been good.He has the potential to be the best horse in this field and he's available at 5.00 against my rated price of 4.20.
Race 8
Bass Straight should be beating this field.His form around the best 3-y-old's in Victoria is very solid.The 2000m will really suit.The danger is He'snotthemessiah who was very good winning his maiden.The second there Duplicity Jones ran away with a city maiden on Wednesday.I'll be saving on him.
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 4 Last Day 1.20 units to win at 4.40 or better-take the 5.0 on offer
Race 8 Bass Straight 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better
50% at the 3.80 now and shop on Betfair for 4.0 plus with other 50%
He'snotthemessiah 0.35 units saver at around 7.0
Tuesday 26 March 2013
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Sandown has already been upgraded so it's Good 3 at both tracks and you can expect fast conditions.
No advised bets today as whilst it's not difficult to narrow the majority of races down to 2/3 live chances there is nothing I've committed any money to in early markets.I'll "tweet " if anything stands out as the afternoon progresses.The one horse that does interest me is Rugged Cross in race 7 at Sandown.His UK rating is 104 and that's a solid reflection as the two horses he split last time have 110 and 107 ratings respectively.Those UK ratings don't match the Australian ones exactly but a mark of 72 is nonsense.That said a lot of these imports don't shape up straight away if at all.The early quote of 3.0 is big overs if he's as good now as he was when he last raced in July.However it's drifted out to 3.50 and there is little money for it on the totes.Why has Waller sent this horse to Melbourne is the other imponderable here.Monitor betting -if the money comes I'll be following it.
No advised bets today as whilst it's not difficult to narrow the majority of races down to 2/3 live chances there is nothing I've committed any money to in early markets.I'll "tweet " if anything stands out as the afternoon progresses.The one horse that does interest me is Rugged Cross in race 7 at Sandown.His UK rating is 104 and that's a solid reflection as the two horses he split last time have 110 and 107 ratings respectively.Those UK ratings don't match the Australian ones exactly but a mark of 72 is nonsense.That said a lot of these imports don't shape up straight away if at all.The early quote of 3.0 is big overs if he's as good now as he was when he last raced in July.However it's drifted out to 3.50 and there is little money for it on the totes.Why has Waller sent this horse to Melbourne is the other imponderable here.Monitor betting -if the money comes I'll be following it.
Monday 25 March 2013
Weekend Round Up
Sad to report another poor week for the blog as this bitterly disapointing month continues.Wretched bad luck at the beginning of the Month but no real excuses for Saturday's poor efforts although Norzita might have won had she not had to make up so much ground in the straight.Dubawi Gold was well backed in from 5.0 to 3.80 went out a bit too hard and faded out in the straight.Honey Flower was hopelessly positioned after a 100m and was never a hope from that point.She actually ran very well and wasn't beaten that far in a race where 1.5 lengths seperated the first nine home.Silent Achiever was never going well enough and I doubt she is quite as good as she used to be.Winners are in very short supply at the moment and a change of fortune is badly needed.
Back tomorrow with a look at Wednesday's racing
Back tomorrow with a look at Wednesday's racing
Friday 22 March 2013
Coolmore,Canterbury & Ranvet Day at Rosehill
Fantastic racing at Rosehill today with three group one's two of them top class and ultra competitive and a great supporting card.The track is rated a Dead 4 but with a forecast of 29 degrees expect an upgrade.There are some thundery showers dotted around on the radar so it may go to Good 3 but possible revert to Dead if they cop a heavy shower.
Caulfield is a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 and again there is a possibility of later rain so it's possible that they too could finish up back on Dead.
Rosehill
Race 6
Silent Achiever is the one to beat here.She will clearly be improved for her recent run and this trip will see her improve a fair bit on what she achieved there.Fiveandahalfstar is a leading contender but with the ATC Derby his main objective he may just fall short of what's required today.Manighar was very plain last time and whilst it's too early to write him off you simply have to pass on him today.Hard to really enthuse about anything else as a winning hope.I have Silent Achiever at 3.30 against a top quote of 3.85.Shop around a bit here as bookies will be betting to very tight figures today.I haven't backed her yet I'm hoping to get 4.0 at some stage.
Race 7
With early markets around 120% it's clearly best to be looking to shop on Betfair here.Streama,Red Tracer and Pear Tart are not going as well as they have in previous preps.Steps In time has beaten them but not sure that form is quite as strong as it may read.Appearance is 10 points higher than when winning the Myer and doubt she's good enough of this mark.Dear Demi's mark is as a result of her form over further.She's on the same mark as Norzita who towelled her in the Flight Stakes and is the filly with overall the strongest form around this trip.Trained by Cummings she may have just needed the race when run down by Flying Snitzel last time.She's top pick.Star Of Giselle is a real hope.She's been steadily progressive and is very fairly weighted.She looked sure to win last time but was run down close home again giving the impression she could be made fitter.I cannot dismiss Benetta as the stable's "modus operandi" is usually to have them a tad soft the run prior to the big day.Flying Snitzel really did eat up the ground last time and it's possible being ridden for the last crack really did improve her many lengths.It should be possible to back all four of these and collectively get around 2.25 which may look very short but I have these four collectively taking up 55% of the market.
Caulfield
Race 4
Three main chances here are Under The Eiffel (good winning in Tassie but had the run of the race and seemed to improve a bit on wet ground),British General (ran very well again last time and has really improved this prep but, has a tricky gate and has had a hard prep) and Dubawi Gold ( very strong winning the Echuca Cup last after working a bit on speed)Of the three I much prefer Dubawi Gold who has gate 1 and hopefully will hold the rail.Young Sadler takes off 3kg's which he didn't at Echuca as it was no claims race so he's in here off 51.5kg's.I have him favourite here at 3.50 but 5.00 is available.
Race 6
Many chances here but one that makes plenty of appeal at odds is Honey Flower.She improved big time last prep and finished off winning at the Flemington carnival.11.0 on offer against my rating of 7.00
Advised Bets
Rosehill Race 6 Silent Achiever 1.50 units to win at 3.50 or better-shop around
Race 7 Norzita 1 unit to win look for 7.0 plus
Benetta 0.70 to win look for 7.50 plus
Flying Snitzel 0.60 to win look for 9.50 plus
Star Of Giselle 0.45 to win look for 20.0 plus
Caulfield Race 4 Dubawi Gold 1.40 to win at 4.0 or better
Race 6 Honey Flower 0.70 to win at 7.50 or better
Caulfield is a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 and again there is a possibility of later rain so it's possible that they too could finish up back on Dead.
Rosehill
Race 6
Silent Achiever is the one to beat here.She will clearly be improved for her recent run and this trip will see her improve a fair bit on what she achieved there.Fiveandahalfstar is a leading contender but with the ATC Derby his main objective he may just fall short of what's required today.Manighar was very plain last time and whilst it's too early to write him off you simply have to pass on him today.Hard to really enthuse about anything else as a winning hope.I have Silent Achiever at 3.30 against a top quote of 3.85.Shop around a bit here as bookies will be betting to very tight figures today.I haven't backed her yet I'm hoping to get 4.0 at some stage.
Race 7
With early markets around 120% it's clearly best to be looking to shop on Betfair here.Streama,Red Tracer and Pear Tart are not going as well as they have in previous preps.Steps In time has beaten them but not sure that form is quite as strong as it may read.Appearance is 10 points higher than when winning the Myer and doubt she's good enough of this mark.Dear Demi's mark is as a result of her form over further.She's on the same mark as Norzita who towelled her in the Flight Stakes and is the filly with overall the strongest form around this trip.Trained by Cummings she may have just needed the race when run down by Flying Snitzel last time.She's top pick.Star Of Giselle is a real hope.She's been steadily progressive and is very fairly weighted.She looked sure to win last time but was run down close home again giving the impression she could be made fitter.I cannot dismiss Benetta as the stable's "modus operandi" is usually to have them a tad soft the run prior to the big day.Flying Snitzel really did eat up the ground last time and it's possible being ridden for the last crack really did improve her many lengths.It should be possible to back all four of these and collectively get around 2.25 which may look very short but I have these four collectively taking up 55% of the market.
Caulfield
Race 4
Three main chances here are Under The Eiffel (good winning in Tassie but had the run of the race and seemed to improve a bit on wet ground),British General (ran very well again last time and has really improved this prep but, has a tricky gate and has had a hard prep) and Dubawi Gold ( very strong winning the Echuca Cup last after working a bit on speed)Of the three I much prefer Dubawi Gold who has gate 1 and hopefully will hold the rail.Young Sadler takes off 3kg's which he didn't at Echuca as it was no claims race so he's in here off 51.5kg's.I have him favourite here at 3.50 but 5.00 is available.
Race 6
Many chances here but one that makes plenty of appeal at odds is Honey Flower.She improved big time last prep and finished off winning at the Flemington carnival.11.0 on offer against my rating of 7.00
Advised Bets
Rosehill Race 6 Silent Achiever 1.50 units to win at 3.50 or better-shop around
Race 7 Norzita 1 unit to win look for 7.0 plus
Benetta 0.70 to win look for 7.50 plus
Flying Snitzel 0.60 to win look for 9.50 plus
Star Of Giselle 0.45 to win look for 20.0 plus
Caulfield Race 4 Dubawi Gold 1.40 to win at 4.0 or better
Race 6 Honey Flower 0.70 to win at 7.50 or better
Thursday 21 March 2013
Black Caviar Night at Moonee Valley
The great sprinting mare makes what may be her final Victorian appearance at Moonee Valley tonight.Hopefully she continues her amazing record.
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 but expect an early upgrade to a Good 3
Only one race that appeals with early value tonight:-
Race 1
Rambert was very dominant leading from the front here last time and steps up to 3000m tonight.A real chance obviously but 2.60 is too short for me.As live a chance on my figures is You Think So who races very well here and has developed into a really useful stayer.Gotta Take Care is the other live contender here.
My figures are Rambert 3.20,You Think So 3.20.Gotta Take Care 6.0,Aggregator 10.0
Advised Bet Moonee Valley Race 1 You Think So 1.55 units to win at 3.50 or better
4.40 on offer now which I have taken
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 but expect an early upgrade to a Good 3
Only one race that appeals with early value tonight:-
Race 1
Rambert was very dominant leading from the front here last time and steps up to 3000m tonight.A real chance obviously but 2.60 is too short for me.As live a chance on my figures is You Think So who races very well here and has developed into a really useful stayer.Gotta Take Care is the other live contender here.
My figures are Rambert 3.20,You Think So 3.20.Gotta Take Care 6.0,Aggregator 10.0
Advised Bet Moonee Valley Race 1 You Think So 1.55 units to win at 3.50 or better
4.40 on offer now which I have taken
Early Post-Albury Cup Day
Two posts today an early one looking at Albury's cup meeting and a later one for Moonee Valley tonight.
Albury is listed a Heavy 8 but the rain has gone and the radar is clear.24 degree day forecast and no rain due till this evening so expect the track to dry out a bit.I've worked on Slow but it's an informed guess.
Race 5
Highest rated horse here is Road Trippin on 70 who isn't hopeless but has to concede 5kg's to some unexposed sorts and has a wide gate to overcome.Berkshire is favourite but looks too short to me around 4.00.Crusader General is progressive and handles wet ground.Clearwater Bay has a recent second in Sydney and Gladius won her first two starts before failing when favourite at Flemington.All of these are possibles but the one I'm interested in at odds is the John Ledger trained Secret Toy Buziness (odd name for a horse isn't it?).This filly can produce a power packed finish and her two wins at this distance last prep were very impressive albeit against modest horses.She was due to reappear on Wangaratta Cup day and was well backed for that race but was scratched at the barrier.She turned up as favourite at Echuca last time but was a big drifter that day.Her run there is best described as "never placed to challenge".Wet ground is an unknown so have to hope there.The evergreen R.Thompson travels down to ride three here today including this one.13.00 on offer at the TAB against my rated price of 7.50 looks attractive.
Advised Bet Albury Race 5 Secret Toy Bizness 0.65 units to win at 7.0 or better
Take the 13.00 on offer at the TAB
Coliseo looks hard to beat in the Cup if he handles the ground but there is no conclusive evidence that he will so 3.50 is hardly tempting.struggling to find one to oppose him with though.
Albury is listed a Heavy 8 but the rain has gone and the radar is clear.24 degree day forecast and no rain due till this evening so expect the track to dry out a bit.I've worked on Slow but it's an informed guess.
Race 5
Highest rated horse here is Road Trippin on 70 who isn't hopeless but has to concede 5kg's to some unexposed sorts and has a wide gate to overcome.Berkshire is favourite but looks too short to me around 4.00.Crusader General is progressive and handles wet ground.Clearwater Bay has a recent second in Sydney and Gladius won her first two starts before failing when favourite at Flemington.All of these are possibles but the one I'm interested in at odds is the John Ledger trained Secret Toy Buziness (odd name for a horse isn't it?).This filly can produce a power packed finish and her two wins at this distance last prep were very impressive albeit against modest horses.She was due to reappear on Wangaratta Cup day and was well backed for that race but was scratched at the barrier.She turned up as favourite at Echuca last time but was a big drifter that day.Her run there is best described as "never placed to challenge".Wet ground is an unknown so have to hope there.The evergreen R.Thompson travels down to ride three here today including this one.13.00 on offer at the TAB against my rated price of 7.50 looks attractive.
Advised Bet Albury Race 5 Secret Toy Bizness 0.65 units to win at 7.0 or better
Take the 13.00 on offer at the TAB
Coliseo looks hard to beat in the Cup if he handles the ground but there is no conclusive evidence that he will so 3.50 is hardly tempting.struggling to find one to oppose him with though.
Tuesday 19 March 2013
Sandown & Newcastle Today
Midweek metro meeting at Sandown and Newmarket Handicap day at Newcastle.Sandown is a Dead 4 but will quickly upgrade to a Good 3 and Newcastle is already a Good 3 and it's fair to expect fast ground at both venues.
The lavish prize money distributed across the board in Australian racing is largely collected from us the punters.As a fair trade off you'd think it not unreasonable that on a midweek metro meeting we should be provided with a card of racing that if not of the quality of a Saturday is at least conducive to having a bet.Sandown today starts with a four runner steeplechase with the odds on favourite rated 60 on his flat form.This is followed by a 3 runner hurdle,followed by a 2-y-o fillies event with eight runners six of which are unraced and untrialled.Collectively these three races have prize money of $105,000 plus starter subsidies and Vobis bonuses.This is what happens when you have incompetent people spending other peoples money.The racing authorities want to collect even more money from us (punters) in order to continue and increase this idiocy.A lot of this nonsense that is being rammed down our throats wouldn't have been possible were it not for the insane policies of the current Victorian racing minister and now newly elected Premier Denis Napthine.Just remember who's paying for all this the next time they increase the turnover levy.
Sandown
Race 5
Scarletini is very well in here if she can run out the 2400m trip.Her 1533m win last time was very solid and she's been raised 5 points for it which is far from excessive.She races here of 69 yet gets 6kg's (12 points) from the top rated horse on a mark of 70.when you add on young Sadler's 3kg's claim she is thrown in.Will she stay?Maybe 70 to 75% likely.She's going to be leading here I think as there is no other obvious pace apart from Lord Of The Song who has led over hurdles.Going Good is a promising stayer and the extra trip will help him.I think there are only three of interest here.No advised but but my figures are:-
Scarletini 2.40,Going Good 4.0, Lord Of The Song 7.50 15.0 plus others
Race 6
Not a lot of pace here which means the ones who are up front should be advantaged.Catagious should lead and if he can stay 1400m will be a tough nut to crack.The 1400m is a big IF though.Maussane gets a good run just behind the speed and gets out to a trip that should suit him.Irish Fire has to try to cross from out wide but does risk being posted doing so but is a live hope if he gets the luck.Van Rossum is racing well and gets a good run but this is a tad harder than last time I think. Savitar and Aurum Spirit have to hope for speed and both look unders on early prices.No advised bet but thinking about backing Maussane.
Race 7
Lack of pace again here Mega Rich leads from gate 1 and should get a dolly run in front.This is harder than last time but the speed map convinces me that he's a serious player here.Red Rain is the obvious after his excellent effort in a good race at Moonee Valley last time.The problem is the 1400m and the fact he'll be in the second half of the field.Speckie is a horse with more to offer but first up from the outside gate I expect will go back and hope.Sharalam is ex Irish and his maiden win over there isn't good enough form to win this although he'll be a better proposition over further.Cooldini probably needs further and Host Of The Party get's back in his races.Mega Rich at 8.59/9.0 looks overs -I have him at 6.0.
Newcastle
Race 8
26 days between runs is a slight concern but City Of Light should be very hard to beat here.Rawiller will want the front on him and unless Avdulla on Mantonant is determined to hold the rail he should get it.Either way doubt they'll go hard.City of Light finds his race today providing he's fit and firing.I've taken the 3.50 on offer against my rating of 2.70.Youthful King is the one I fear most but he be giving away a start.
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 7 Mega Rich 0.83 units to win at 6.50 or better ( take the 8.50 plus now)
Newcastle Race 8 City Of Light 1.85 units to win at 2.90 or better (take the 3.50 now)
The lavish prize money distributed across the board in Australian racing is largely collected from us the punters.As a fair trade off you'd think it not unreasonable that on a midweek metro meeting we should be provided with a card of racing that if not of the quality of a Saturday is at least conducive to having a bet.Sandown today starts with a four runner steeplechase with the odds on favourite rated 60 on his flat form.This is followed by a 3 runner hurdle,followed by a 2-y-o fillies event with eight runners six of which are unraced and untrialled.Collectively these three races have prize money of $105,000 plus starter subsidies and Vobis bonuses.This is what happens when you have incompetent people spending other peoples money.The racing authorities want to collect even more money from us (punters) in order to continue and increase this idiocy.A lot of this nonsense that is being rammed down our throats wouldn't have been possible were it not for the insane policies of the current Victorian racing minister and now newly elected Premier Denis Napthine.Just remember who's paying for all this the next time they increase the turnover levy.
Sandown
Race 5
Scarletini is very well in here if she can run out the 2400m trip.Her 1533m win last time was very solid and she's been raised 5 points for it which is far from excessive.She races here of 69 yet gets 6kg's (12 points) from the top rated horse on a mark of 70.when you add on young Sadler's 3kg's claim she is thrown in.Will she stay?Maybe 70 to 75% likely.She's going to be leading here I think as there is no other obvious pace apart from Lord Of The Song who has led over hurdles.Going Good is a promising stayer and the extra trip will help him.I think there are only three of interest here.No advised but but my figures are:-
Scarletini 2.40,Going Good 4.0, Lord Of The Song 7.50 15.0 plus others
Race 6
Not a lot of pace here which means the ones who are up front should be advantaged.Catagious should lead and if he can stay 1400m will be a tough nut to crack.The 1400m is a big IF though.Maussane gets a good run just behind the speed and gets out to a trip that should suit him.Irish Fire has to try to cross from out wide but does risk being posted doing so but is a live hope if he gets the luck.Van Rossum is racing well and gets a good run but this is a tad harder than last time I think. Savitar and Aurum Spirit have to hope for speed and both look unders on early prices.No advised bet but thinking about backing Maussane.
Race 7
Lack of pace again here Mega Rich leads from gate 1 and should get a dolly run in front.This is harder than last time but the speed map convinces me that he's a serious player here.Red Rain is the obvious after his excellent effort in a good race at Moonee Valley last time.The problem is the 1400m and the fact he'll be in the second half of the field.Speckie is a horse with more to offer but first up from the outside gate I expect will go back and hope.Sharalam is ex Irish and his maiden win over there isn't good enough form to win this although he'll be a better proposition over further.Cooldini probably needs further and Host Of The Party get's back in his races.Mega Rich at 8.59/9.0 looks overs -I have him at 6.0.
Newcastle
Race 8
26 days between runs is a slight concern but City Of Light should be very hard to beat here.Rawiller will want the front on him and unless Avdulla on Mantonant is determined to hold the rail he should get it.Either way doubt they'll go hard.City of Light finds his race today providing he's fit and firing.I've taken the 3.50 on offer against my rating of 2.70.Youthful King is the one I fear most but he be giving away a start.
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 7 Mega Rich 0.83 units to win at 6.50 or better ( take the 8.50 plus now)
Newcastle Race 8 City Of Light 1.85 units to win at 2.90 or better (take the 3.50 now)
Weekend Round Up
Only two selection posted on the blog last week and unfortunately no joy with either.It's been a very tough month indeed.
I don't post a blog generally on Sundays but I did "tweet" that I had Sutanoc odds on in a race at Ararat and that he was available at 2.90 with Luxbet.Amazingly he was 3.0 elsewhere which I got some of and the 2.90 with Luxbet held up for a few minutes after my tweet.He won easily backed into around evens which I would have been happy to take initially.That win rescued the week personally for me and put me a decent margin in front but the month overall has been a shocker.
Back tomorrow with a look at Wednesday's racing
I don't post a blog generally on Sundays but I did "tweet" that I had Sutanoc odds on in a race at Ararat and that he was available at 2.90 with Luxbet.Amazingly he was 3.0 elsewhere which I got some of and the 2.90 with Luxbet held up for a few minutes after my tweet.He won easily backed into around evens which I would have been happy to take initially.That win rescued the week personally for me and put me a decent margin in front but the month overall has been a shocker.
Back tomorrow with a look at Wednesday's racing
Friday 15 March 2013
Guineas Day at Warwick Farm and Bendigo
Warwick Farm the showcase meeting today with the Guineas the highlight along with the reappearance of Hay List in the Challenge Stakes.Bendigo stages it's only Saturday fixture of the year and a very competitive card it is too.
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 with a dry day forecast so expect fast ground.Bendigo is a Dead 4 with showers around so probably reasonable to expect Dead ground there today.
Tough finding early value and only one bet today in the Guineas.
Warwick Farm
Race 6
A few hopes here but I'm not interested in the shorter quotes here.Tougher Than Ever ran a huge race last time and the fact that Waller has trialled him since suggests that he didn't think he was fully would up for that run.He doesn't have to find very much improvement to be winning here and 11.0 is way over my figure of 6.50.Sure this one will run really well here today
Advised Bet Warwick Farm Race 6 Tougher Than Ever 0.80 to win at 7.0 or better
Take the 11.0 on offer now
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 with a dry day forecast so expect fast ground.Bendigo is a Dead 4 with showers around so probably reasonable to expect Dead ground there today.
Tough finding early value and only one bet today in the Guineas.
Warwick Farm
Race 6
A few hopes here but I'm not interested in the shorter quotes here.Tougher Than Ever ran a huge race last time and the fact that Waller has trialled him since suggests that he didn't think he was fully would up for that run.He doesn't have to find very much improvement to be winning here and 11.0 is way over my figure of 6.50.Sure this one will run really well here today
Advised Bet Warwick Farm Race 6 Tougher Than Ever 0.80 to win at 7.0 or better
Take the 11.0 on offer now
Moonee Valley Tonight
Very good programme at Moonee Valley tonight.Track is rated a Dead 4 but with drying conditions an early upgrade looks certain.Expect fast ground.
Race 4
If Sumakaray is in the same form as when she won here over Christmas she is clearly the one to beat.I was super confident about her last time and the early market moves were for her.Once the on course betting began the bookies were falling over themselves to lay her and she ran miserably.She had a slow recovery rate after that race so maybe there was an explanation for the poor run then.She's on offer around 4.80 tonight which looks very attractive if she's capable of running to her best.I've got her rated 3.0 but really want to see some market confidence before stepping in.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 4 Sumakaray 1.65 units to win at 3.30 or better.
I've listed her as an advised bet but suggest you monitor the market to guard against a chronic market drift like last time.
I'll "tweet" updates that I think are worthwhile throughout the evening
Race 4
If Sumakaray is in the same form as when she won here over Christmas she is clearly the one to beat.I was super confident about her last time and the early market moves were for her.Once the on course betting began the bookies were falling over themselves to lay her and she ran miserably.She had a slow recovery rate after that race so maybe there was an explanation for the poor run then.She's on offer around 4.80 tonight which looks very attractive if she's capable of running to her best.I've got her rated 3.0 but really want to see some market confidence before stepping in.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 4 Sumakaray 1.65 units to win at 3.30 or better.
I've listed her as an advised bet but suggest you monitor the market to guard against a chronic market drift like last time.
I'll "tweet" updates that I think are worthwhile throughout the evening
Tuesday 12 March 2013
Weekend Round Up
Sadly no joy to report for the blog.Plenty looked appealing on Saturday with a record eight selections.Award Season kicked the day off well winning in Sydney but it was total frustration thereafter.Wall Street was held up the length of the Flemington straight before getting out very late and coming off third best in a tight finish.Streama managed second but was trounced by Steps In Time and was a bit plain I thought.Riva De Lago looked sure to win 300m out but just couldn't get past a determined Skytrain and went down a head.Mr Moet was hopelessly positioned turning for home in the Australia Cup and he did well to finish off strongly-the first two were dominant though so no real excuses despite another poor ride.Silent Achiever kept on well for fourth without ever really threatening so again no excuses there.Spirit Song rallied gamely after looking well held at the 200m to grab second in a very close three way finish.Star Of Giselle kicked for home at the 300m and clearly looked the winner but tied up late and was headed close home and had to settle for second.
Last week I reported that I'd had my worst week for months and I've followed that with an equally wretched week so the slump continues.All very frustrating with plenty running really well but just failing to land the spoils.I managed a couple of reasonable days on Sunday and Monday but that was operating on the "lay" side of the exchange.Massive work to be done to make this a worthwhile month but I'll be trying my best.
Last week I reported that I'd had my worst week for months and I've followed that with an equally wretched week so the slump continues.All very frustrating with plenty running really well but just failing to land the spoils.I managed a couple of reasonable days on Sunday and Monday but that was operating on the "lay" side of the exchange.Massive work to be done to make this a worthwhile month but I'll be trying my best.
Friday 8 March 2013
Australian Cup,Newmarket,& Chipping Norton Day
Three G1's today so a great day in prospect.
Flemington is a Dead 4 but will quickly upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and whilst there may be a light shower or two the track should play fast.
Flemington
Race 4
Puissance De Lune resumes and has been backed into around 3.50 already.Last prep he resumed of a marl of 78 over this trip and ran an eye catching fifth.Today his mark is 105 so he has to improve on his first up effort last prep by around 30/35 points if he's to be competitive.Considering he has bigger fish to fry later this prep and will almost certainly not be 100% would up today I think we need to look elsewhere for the winner.Wall Street was outpointed by Dany The Fox in the Seymour Cup running really well but the concession of 6kg's proving too much and he was 1.8 lenths down at the line.Today he meets Dany on 9kg's better terms.Wall Street is a very consistent performer his progress has plateaued but he consistently runs to his rating but struggles to win under handicap conditions as a result.The set weight here are all in his favour.
Race 6
Green Moon and the 3-y-o Super Cool head the market for the Australia Cup.Both are too short on my figures.Glass Harmonium is overs at 11.0 as he'll be on pace and if it's slow in the right place.Mawingo is also overs at 9.50 but I'm passing on both and backing Mr Moet once again.Flemington should suit better than Caulfield and he's very fit now.He keeps improving every run and just needs some luck in the run here from the wide gate.
Race 8
Spirit Song kept up her improvement last prep.He first up effort was very encouraging and she'll be much fitter today.The set weights here really suit her and Hi Belle.Both have awkward gates to deal with but they are bit ahead of the opposition quality wise and 4.40 Spirit Song looks the most attractive option against my rating of 3.70.The excellent C.Williams rides.
Race 9
Three hopes here,Star Of Giselle,British General and Sheila's Star and I like them in that order.Star of Giselle wasn't fully wound up when winning on her reappearance according to her trainer so fitter today she is the one to beat here.I have her a 3.40 chance here.
Warwick Farm
Race 1
Award Season is astayer with a future and I'll be surprised if he can't knock this lot off comfortably.The Mornington Cup last time was a "bridge too far" but a sound fifth there makes him mighty hard to beat here.2.05 available against my rating of 1.70
Race 3
Streama is the best Mare here and fitter for her recent good second is the one to beat here.The market has Steps In Time favourite but I have them the other way around.Streama 2.70,Steps In Time 3.50.
Race 5
Riva De Lago is back in the good books after winning at nice odds last time.With question marks over all the field here he is at least in career best form.A slight niggle is that he may be best at his home track Rosehill and I'd be more confident there than here.But at around 4.0 he's worth a play
Race 7
A lot of these are getting to the twilight of their careers.Silent achiever still I think has more to offer and I'm keen on her chances here.She's been backed so the cream has mostly gone but at 5.0 plus I will be playing.
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 4 Wall Street 1.40 units to win at 3.70 or better
Race 7 Mr Moet 1 unit to win at 5.0 or better
Race 8 Spirit Song 1.35 units to win at 3.90 or better
Race 9 Star Of Giselle 1.45 units to win at 3.60 or better
Warwick Farm Race 1 Award Season 2.95 units to win at 1.80 or better
Race 3 Streama 1.85 units to win at 2.85 or better
Race 5 Riva De Lago 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better
Race 7 Silent Achiever 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better
Shop around today.It's carnival time and bookies will be betting to low margins so monitor markets.
Any further news will be "tweeted" throughout the afternoon
Flemington is a Dead 4 but will quickly upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and whilst there may be a light shower or two the track should play fast.
Flemington
Race 4
Puissance De Lune resumes and has been backed into around 3.50 already.Last prep he resumed of a marl of 78 over this trip and ran an eye catching fifth.Today his mark is 105 so he has to improve on his first up effort last prep by around 30/35 points if he's to be competitive.Considering he has bigger fish to fry later this prep and will almost certainly not be 100% would up today I think we need to look elsewhere for the winner.Wall Street was outpointed by Dany The Fox in the Seymour Cup running really well but the concession of 6kg's proving too much and he was 1.8 lenths down at the line.Today he meets Dany on 9kg's better terms.Wall Street is a very consistent performer his progress has plateaued but he consistently runs to his rating but struggles to win under handicap conditions as a result.The set weight here are all in his favour.
Race 6
Green Moon and the 3-y-o Super Cool head the market for the Australia Cup.Both are too short on my figures.Glass Harmonium is overs at 11.0 as he'll be on pace and if it's slow in the right place.Mawingo is also overs at 9.50 but I'm passing on both and backing Mr Moet once again.Flemington should suit better than Caulfield and he's very fit now.He keeps improving every run and just needs some luck in the run here from the wide gate.
Race 8
Spirit Song kept up her improvement last prep.He first up effort was very encouraging and she'll be much fitter today.The set weights here really suit her and Hi Belle.Both have awkward gates to deal with but they are bit ahead of the opposition quality wise and 4.40 Spirit Song looks the most attractive option against my rating of 3.70.The excellent C.Williams rides.
Race 9
Three hopes here,Star Of Giselle,British General and Sheila's Star and I like them in that order.Star of Giselle wasn't fully wound up when winning on her reappearance according to her trainer so fitter today she is the one to beat here.I have her a 3.40 chance here.
Warwick Farm
Race 1
Award Season is astayer with a future and I'll be surprised if he can't knock this lot off comfortably.The Mornington Cup last time was a "bridge too far" but a sound fifth there makes him mighty hard to beat here.2.05 available against my rating of 1.70
Race 3
Streama is the best Mare here and fitter for her recent good second is the one to beat here.The market has Steps In Time favourite but I have them the other way around.Streama 2.70,Steps In Time 3.50.
Race 5
Riva De Lago is back in the good books after winning at nice odds last time.With question marks over all the field here he is at least in career best form.A slight niggle is that he may be best at his home track Rosehill and I'd be more confident there than here.But at around 4.0 he's worth a play
Race 7
A lot of these are getting to the twilight of their careers.Silent achiever still I think has more to offer and I'm keen on her chances here.She's been backed so the cream has mostly gone but at 5.0 plus I will be playing.
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 4 Wall Street 1.40 units to win at 3.70 or better
Race 7 Mr Moet 1 unit to win at 5.0 or better
Race 8 Spirit Song 1.35 units to win at 3.90 or better
Race 9 Star Of Giselle 1.45 units to win at 3.60 or better
Warwick Farm Race 1 Award Season 2.95 units to win at 1.80 or better
Race 3 Streama 1.85 units to win at 2.85 or better
Race 5 Riva De Lago 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better
Race 7 Silent Achiever 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better
Shop around today.It's carnival time and bookies will be betting to low margins so monitor markets.
Any further news will be "tweeted" throughout the afternoon
Thursday 7 March 2013
Cranbourne & Canterbury Tonight
Evening racing at Cranbourne and Canterbury.Cranbourne is upgraded from a Dead 5 to a Dead 4 and I understand that it has had a fair bit of water on it so just monitor it early.Canterbury is now a Good 3 and expect fast ground there.
Nothing appeals from early markets at either meeting but both are interesting cards and some opportunities may come along.
I'll "tweet"through updates through the evening.
Nothing appeals from early markets at either meeting but both are interesting cards and some opportunities may come along.
I'll "tweet"through updates through the evening.
Denis
I had intended to post a blog this week about jockeys but I've been sidetracked and completely stunned by news from Victoria.State Minister for Racing the seemingly genial but hopelessly incompetent Denis Napthine has bewilderingly been elected Premier of Victoria.I've been left headscratching enough times by Australian political maneuverings to know by now that it throws up stuff that can leave you totally "gobsmacked" but I couldn't believe my ears last night when the ABC news reported that Denis had been elected as a "consensus" leader to replace departing Premier Ted Ballieu.The Victorian Liberal party have been here before electing Denis as leader after the resignation of Jeff Kennet in 1999.It was a disaster and support quickly evaporated like Lake Eyre in a drought.
As Racing Minister Denis was well loved by racing's "participants" generously supporting all manner of schemes designed to enrich the already well heeled Breeding,Owning and Training fraternity all of it with public money that could and should have been allocated to areas of real need.I'd rather thought he was simply batting it out until he could take up some sinecure at RVL or other prominent racing authority as a reward for his determination to allocate the maximum amount racing funds to those who already have plenty of their own.Now he's got the top job in Victoria!
I know the current State Government in Victoria is the the worst in living memory and something really had to change but Denis?
As Racing Minister Denis was well loved by racing's "participants" generously supporting all manner of schemes designed to enrich the already well heeled Breeding,Owning and Training fraternity all of it with public money that could and should have been allocated to areas of real need.I'd rather thought he was simply batting it out until he could take up some sinecure at RVL or other prominent racing authority as a reward for his determination to allocate the maximum amount racing funds to those who already have plenty of their own.Now he's got the top job in Victoria!
I know the current State Government in Victoria is the the worst in living memory and something really had to change but Denis?
Tuesday 5 March 2013
Sandown & ATC at Newcastle Today
Sandown is a Dead 4 but expect an upgrade quickly to a Good 3.Newcastle was a Slow 6 this morning but it's up to Dead 4 now which suggest the initial reading was wrong.Dry day there so it may be Good soon?
Difficult day looking for ones to back.Nothing I've backed early today so no advised bets.A few possible plays as the day evolves.I'll "tweet" anything I think worthwhile.
Difficult day looking for ones to back.Nothing I've backed early today so no advised bets.A few possible plays as the day evolves.I'll "tweet" anything I think worthwhile.
Sunday 3 March 2013
Weekend Round Up
No joy for the blog on Saturday.
Bass Straight ran well to finish fifth after meeting interference entering the straight-he should have been placed but doubt he would have won.Eight Bills was chopped out badly in the last 200m but again may have placed but wouldn't have won.Carry Me Bluey copped another poor ride from Clipperton but ran out of stamina so no real excuses there.Toydini was lengths last after 400m on a day when it was virtually impossible to run on so I was astonished to see him get within 2.2 lengths of the winner.
Slumps are inevitable when punting and I'm in one at the moment after registering my worst week of losses for months.I've managed to lay a few too many winners and in fact have layed a handful this week that only went down in very close finishes so it could have been much worse.Hopefully this will only be a "mini slump" and two or three winners over the next few days will have things back on the rails again.The last time I endured a "major slump" was around August/September/October 2010.That was the most difficult time I've experienced betting since the middle of 1989 when I actually stopped betting at the end of June and went away to sort out my personal life which had imploded.When "major slumps" happen they are very mentally and emotionally challenging as once you lose that innate confidence in your abilities you are done for.Obviously lean spells are no fun but having been through it all before experience tells you that providing you stay focused,consistent and confident things will swing back in your favour eventually.Hopefully,sooner rather than later.
Bass Straight ran well to finish fifth after meeting interference entering the straight-he should have been placed but doubt he would have won.Eight Bills was chopped out badly in the last 200m but again may have placed but wouldn't have won.Carry Me Bluey copped another poor ride from Clipperton but ran out of stamina so no real excuses there.Toydini was lengths last after 400m on a day when it was virtually impossible to run on so I was astonished to see him get within 2.2 lengths of the winner.
Slumps are inevitable when punting and I'm in one at the moment after registering my worst week of losses for months.I've managed to lay a few too many winners and in fact have layed a handful this week that only went down in very close finishes so it could have been much worse.Hopefully this will only be a "mini slump" and two or three winners over the next few days will have things back on the rails again.The last time I endured a "major slump" was around August/September/October 2010.That was the most difficult time I've experienced betting since the middle of 1989 when I actually stopped betting at the end of June and went away to sort out my personal life which had imploded.When "major slumps" happen they are very mentally and emotionally challenging as once you lose that innate confidence in your abilities you are done for.Obviously lean spells are no fun but having been through it all before experience tells you that providing you stay focused,consistent and confident things will swing back in your favour eventually.Hopefully,sooner rather than later.
Friday 1 March 2013
Guineas Day at Flemington and Rosehill
I'm a bit off jockey's at the moment particularly the ones who have managed to lose races they should have won when I've had my money down.One of the more frightening things about playing the horses for a living is that your fortunes are entrusted to this bunch of sharp faced midgets.There's a short list I have of riders who really increase my confidence when I'm betting and there is of course a longer list of ones that don't.I'll take a good look at jockeys in one of next week's blogs.
Flemington today is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 with a fine day forecast.It will be fast ground there today.Rosehill is Heavy 8 and with showers around I doubt there is much hope of an upgrade.Let's hope the initial reading of Heavy 8 in accurate.
Flemington
Race 7
All Too Hard comes out of the Australian Guineas and what an open race it is as a result.Plenty of hopes here but the one that appeals as value is Bass Straight.He had a little break before dropping back in trip in the C.S.Hayes here.He was really good over the last 200m then and the step up to the mile is really going to suit today.He was much better there than Albrecht who is listed here at 5.50 whilst Bass Straight is 11.0.It's time David Hayes trained another G1 winner and the excellent Chad Schofield rides.
Race 8
Favourite here is Isabella Snowflake who may be too fast for them but looks a skinny price to me.Eight Bills loves fast ground and is racing well.He had no hope last time after been ridden forward and going far too hard.Today he gets a nice sit behind a likely good speed and get's to have the last crack.7.0 on offer against my rating of 5.50.
Rosehill
Race 3
Carry Me Bluey should have beaten Frozen Rope last time.Apprentice Clipperton keeps the ride but loses the claim-go figure?Let's see if he can ride a better race today.Frozen Rope mighty hard to beat but Bluey is the better value.His wet form in Queensland is good.My rated price is 4.50 and we'll shop best on Betfair with this one.
Race 8
Toydini is the best horse here potentially and also probably.His fresh efforts are good.Last prep he split Albrecht and Tatra at G3 level first up without trialling first.This time he's had an easy trial.He needs a win to get his rating up to be eligible for better races.He'll be finishing powerfully out wide.10.0 is way too big- I have him at 6.0.
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 7 Bass Straight 0.65 units to win at 7.0 or better-take the 11.0 on offer
Race 8 Eight Bills 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better-TAB offering 7.0
Rosehill Race 3 Carry Me Bluey 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 8 Toydini 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better-take the 10.0 on offer
Tweets with updates throughout the afternoon
Flemington today is posted a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 with a fine day forecast.It will be fast ground there today.Rosehill is Heavy 8 and with showers around I doubt there is much hope of an upgrade.Let's hope the initial reading of Heavy 8 in accurate.
Flemington
Race 7
All Too Hard comes out of the Australian Guineas and what an open race it is as a result.Plenty of hopes here but the one that appeals as value is Bass Straight.He had a little break before dropping back in trip in the C.S.Hayes here.He was really good over the last 200m then and the step up to the mile is really going to suit today.He was much better there than Albrecht who is listed here at 5.50 whilst Bass Straight is 11.0.It's time David Hayes trained another G1 winner and the excellent Chad Schofield rides.
Race 8
Favourite here is Isabella Snowflake who may be too fast for them but looks a skinny price to me.Eight Bills loves fast ground and is racing well.He had no hope last time after been ridden forward and going far too hard.Today he gets a nice sit behind a likely good speed and get's to have the last crack.7.0 on offer against my rating of 5.50.
Rosehill
Race 3
Carry Me Bluey should have beaten Frozen Rope last time.Apprentice Clipperton keeps the ride but loses the claim-go figure?Let's see if he can ride a better race today.Frozen Rope mighty hard to beat but Bluey is the better value.His wet form in Queensland is good.My rated price is 4.50 and we'll shop best on Betfair with this one.
Race 8
Toydini is the best horse here potentially and also probably.His fresh efforts are good.Last prep he split Albrecht and Tatra at G3 level first up without trialling first.This time he's had an easy trial.He needs a win to get his rating up to be eligible for better races.He'll be finishing powerfully out wide.10.0 is way too big- I have him at 6.0.
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 7 Bass Straight 0.65 units to win at 7.0 or better-take the 11.0 on offer
Race 8 Eight Bills 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better-TAB offering 7.0
Rosehill Race 3 Carry Me Bluey 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 8 Toydini 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better-take the 10.0 on offer
Tweets with updates throughout the afternoon
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