'Arc Day at Longchamp

Soft ground at Longchamp for French racing's showpiece.
The fields at Longchamp three weeks ago for the 'Arc trials were the strongest I can remember so it's disappointing to report that today's big day seems a bit less strong overall than is usual.The 'Arc is a very good renewal though and the best field assembled for any race run so far this year worldwide.
Not many races today that I really want to have a bet in.The 2-y-o races look very open and it's not easy lining the form up.The 'Abbaye looks far too complex and the 'Opera looks a very tricky F&M's event.The Foret looks Moonlight Cloud's race but she'll be around 1.50/1.60 in Paris and the 1.83 on offer with the bookies looks to big but I don't want to back at odds on.I may back Tac De Boistron in the Cadran.He bolted in last time and he still could have a bit more improvement in him.His half brother is a 3 mile chaser so hopefully he can stay the trip.If I'm backing him I'll send a message via Twitter.So at this stage only one bet

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe

Two runners stand out from the rest the Japanese Orfevre and the French filly Treve.I've tried to be as objective as possible with Orfevre and have played the devil's advocate in finding all the reasons why he won't win but he's the most talented horse around anywhere at the moment and the good draw is the real cincher for me.Last year he was enormous getting to the front in a few bounds from a poor position and it's still hard to believe he got beat so majestically did he round them up and go clear.He's quirky but he is brilliant and wet ground is fine for him.
Treve is an outstanding filly and without Orfevre in the race I would back her to overcome the bad draw.But the fact is that he will have the position turning and she will have to outsprint him and I doubt she can.If it all goes wrong again for the Japanese runner then I think the race will be hers.
 My figures are Orfevre 2.80 ,Treve 4.80.Orfevre is 3.45 with Betfair and 3.50 with Ladbrokes and that will not last.Treve is 6.0 with Ladbrokes and 5.80 with Betfair.Expect these two to be very strong on the French tote Orfevre particularly so

Advised Bet: Orfevre 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-take the 3.50 now-save on Treve 0.40 units at 5.0 or better- take the 6.0 now.