Warm and Sunny day expected in Melbourne for the Cup.Flemington is a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 sooner rather than later.Randwick is a Good 3 and a dry day is expected there too.
I priced up the Cup yesterday and my ratings are in the previous blog.If there are any bets at Randwick I'll send them through via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
Mostly unraced 2-y-olds.Pass
Race 2
Most complex and definitely no bet here
Race 3
Opinion is a decent horse but he's blown the start twice in a row now.His UK form is really high class handicaps and he's the type of horse that should do really well out here in Australia but the gate problems are enough to put me off backing him here.Caravan Rolls On is a quality handicapper and the trip and the fast ground will suit him.He's got a wide gate to overcome as does Junood another UK import.On their UK form these three are closely handicapped and I think they are a grade above the opposition here.May play here but not committed yet
Race 4
Arinosa is a worthy favourite.Her last start at G1 level is a total forgive run and back to mares grade she'll be very competitive.There are a few hopes here though and 3.30 is a bit too short I think.Happy to pass on this one
Race 5
Official ratings have Kuroshio well on top here.I think his mark of 102 is too high though and around 92 would be a more realistic figure in my opinion.That makes this far more open.There are plenty of potential improvers here and I will not be playing here
Race 6
Moderate was hugely impressive winning a modest event up in Sydney last time.2.10 is very short for what she's achieved on paper but she did look as though there would be plenty more to come.Politeness is also a tad short at 3.50 but back in trip she's a live hope.Not betting here-these two are too short to back but I don't really want to oppose them either
Race 7
I think there is value in Fiorente (marginal but enough),Sea Moon,Fawkner and Brown Panther and I'm happy to take those four against the field.Fiorente has the best recent Australian form along with Fawkner and it's possible that both still have further improvement in them.Sea Moon hasn't matched his best form yet in his Australian runs but he's been first past the post in his last two starts and I think he just being getting fitter.If he shows up at his best here today then he'll be mighty hard to beat.Brown Panther is drawn to get a good run on the pace.He's a genuine stayer with a real touch of class and the prospect of a good run gives him a live hope
Advised Bets: Fiorente 0.75 units at 7.50 or better
Fawkner 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Sea Moon 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Brown Panther 0.35 units at 16.0 or better
Shop around there are many offers on today
Race 8
Very Keen Rain Drum here.4.0 is gone but 3.80 against my rating of 3.20 is still value.Favourite Salon Soldier is too short at < 2.50 and I think Rain drum who leads and controls the race should be favourite.
Advised Bet: Rain Drum 1.55 units at 3.30 or better-take the 3.80 on offer now
Race 9
Very open and too hard
Race 10
Happy to take a chance that The New Boy will be ready to show his best after a clean out run last time.The blinkers are back on and he'll got a cosy run up on the speed.13.0 is good value against my rating of 9.0
Advised Bet; The New Boy 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer now
Enjoy the day!
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