Sale posts a Slow 6 and there has been showery weather around this morning so I doubt it gets any better,maybe a tad worse-monitor.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and sunny so expect fast ground there.
A substandard Spring Wednesday today and tough races to be confident about. I could have maybe been interested in One Direction at Canterbury (R6) but the early morning 3.20 is now 2.50 tops which seems about right.Possible speed battle upfront in this race so I need value to bet here.
Expect to be playing almost exclusively on the "lay' side of the exchange today.
If anything does come up I'll post it on Twitter.
Tuesday 30 September 2014
September Round Up & YTD Figures
A very good set of figures this month despite a few health issues slowing me down a bit over the last few weeks. Here are the results:
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 9 races - 1 winner (good overlay)
Stakes 8.40
Profit 0.70 units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets advised in 34 races - 7 winners
Stakes 35.55
Profit 10.99 units
Overall Australia for the month PROFIT 11.69 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 1.30
Profit 5.35 units
Bets advised by Twitter - bets advised in 12 races - 5 winners
Stakes 18.95
Profit 11.96 units
Overall UK & Int. for the month PROFIT 17.31
Overall total for the month PROFIT 29.00 units
The overall YTD figures at the end of September are:
Stakes 416.85
Profit 80.89 units
POT 19.41%
Away from the bets which obviously did very well this month I had my best month of the year playing on the "lay" side of the exchange so a month I'd like to be able to regularly repeat. It's a shame that the numbers fell a bit short for what was to be the first month of the private service as it would have been off to a bonanza start.
October was a shocker last year so hopefully this year I can get through it and have a positive result.
The Spring Carnival in Australia is in full swing now and it's "Arc" weekend in Paris so huge Saturday and Sunday ahead.
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 9 races - 1 winner (good overlay)
Stakes 8.40
Profit 0.70 units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets advised in 34 races - 7 winners
Stakes 35.55
Profit 10.99 units
Overall Australia for the month PROFIT 11.69 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 1.30
Profit 5.35 units
Bets advised by Twitter - bets advised in 12 races - 5 winners
Stakes 18.95
Profit 11.96 units
Overall UK & Int. for the month PROFIT 17.31
Overall total for the month PROFIT 29.00 units
The overall YTD figures at the end of September are:
Stakes 416.85
Profit 80.89 units
POT 19.41%
Away from the bets which obviously did very well this month I had my best month of the year playing on the "lay" side of the exchange so a month I'd like to be able to regularly repeat. It's a shame that the numbers fell a bit short for what was to be the first month of the private service as it would have been off to a bonanza start.
October was a shocker last year so hopefully this year I can get through it and have a positive result.
The Spring Carnival in Australia is in full swing now and it's "Arc" weekend in Paris so huge Saturday and Sunday ahead.
Saturday 27 September 2014
Caulfield (G1 Sir Rupert Clarke) & Warwick Farm Today
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's been watered in the last 24 hours contrary to what was made public earlier. Probably starts a genuine Good 3.
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast ground.
Caulfield has a terrific card highlighted by the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke over 1400m. It's great racing but apart from the Caulfield Guineas Prelude ( R6) it's an almost impossible card. Sportsbet put up markets at around 102% for an hour this morning and I still couln't find anything that I wanted to back. A lot of these markets will open up a fair bit during the afternoon and some value possibilities may emerge but realistically it looks a very tough day.
With so much racing this weekend I still haven't quite finished looking at the Warwick Farm meeting so if there is anything there it'll be sent via Twitter.
Anyone following on Twitter this month would be having a very good month although I accept it's not the ideal medium for getting info out and some of the tweets are easy to miss if your busy.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast ground.
Caulfield has a terrific card highlighted by the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke over 1400m. It's great racing but apart from the Caulfield Guineas Prelude ( R6) it's an almost impossible card. Sportsbet put up markets at around 102% for an hour this morning and I still couln't find anything that I wanted to back. A lot of these markets will open up a fair bit during the afternoon and some value possibilities may emerge but realistically it looks a very tough day.
With so much racing this weekend I still haven't quite finished looking at the Warwick Farm meeting so if there is anything there it'll be sent via Twitter.
Anyone following on Twitter this month would be having a very good month although I accept it's not the ideal medium for getting info out and some of the tweets are easy to miss if your busy.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Friday 26 September 2014
Sandown & Rosehill Today
Sandown is posted a Dead 4. It's dry there but William Hernan reported there was a good deal of give in the surface this morning so it may upgrade but isn't certain to do so.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and it's dry.
With the AFL Grand Final on today the Sandown card is midweek prize money bar race 6. Despite that it's a terrific card and there are sure to be opportunities as markets open up.
Rosehill is less appealing betting wise although there may be a couple of interest later on.
No early bets at this stage though.
Bets /Updates sent via Twitter
Rosehill is a Good 3 and it's dry.
With the AFL Grand Final on today the Sandown card is midweek prize money bar race 6. Despite that it's a terrific card and there are sure to be opportunities as markets open up.
Rosehill is less appealing betting wise although there may be a couple of interest later on.
No early bets at this stage though.
Bets /Updates sent via Twitter
Moonee Valley (G1 Moir plus 4 other Group races) Tonight
Very good racing at Moonee Valley tonight with 5 group races including the G1 Moir stakes.
The track is posted a Dead 4 but with a strong chance of an upgrade.
No early bets tonight but a few possibilities if markets open up a little.
It's a massive weekend and I'm very pushed for time-family dramas over the last two days are the last thing I need at such busy time.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
The track is posted a Dead 4 but with a strong chance of an upgrade.
No early bets tonight but a few possibilities if markets open up a little.
It's a massive weekend and I'm very pushed for time-family dramas over the last two days are the last thing I need at such busy time.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 23 September 2014
Bendigo & Canterbury Today
Bendigo is a Dead 4 and there are showers around there now and more due. You'll have to monitor conditions there as Sam Hyland reported the surface as worn and patchy this morning.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's dry so fast conditions there.
Canterbury
Race 6
Pythagorean draws awkwardly but the ones I have going forward here are in wide gates so hopefully he can follow them across and find an OK position. On his UK form he's got lengths on these although there are a couple of negatives to bear in mind. On a positive note his Aussie debut was good on wet ground (fast ground suits better) and he looked a live hope at the 300m before lack of condition told late. He's run really well in high class UK handicaps at big meetings and a NMW midweeker should be a walk in the park. The negatives are the awkward draw as already mentioned, the fact he was something of a "bookies horse " (perennialy unlucky) and he never went beyond 1400m in the UK (bred to get this trip and further). The other Waller import Campanology also has very solid UK and Irish form for a race like this and I be inclined to follow any market support for him here too. No sign of any money for him at this stage.
Advised Bet: Pythagorean 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.50 with Tatts for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Bendigo
Race 6
The two coming from maiden grade Fluorescent and The Golden Pig both have more to offer which is not the case with the rest of this field. I've already advised The Golden Pig via Twitter at 13.0 which is overs although he's not entirely certain to get 2400m. I'm happy at this stage with that bet and with the chance that conditions may be wet by now will rest there are this stage.The 13.0 is still there so I'll list this as a bet in the blog.
Advised Bet: The Golden Pig 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 with Bet 365 with the SP and Tote guarantees.
Races 7 and 8 are interesting but track conditions are crucial to anything I want to do there so I'll advise via Twitter
As usual Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's dry so fast conditions there.
Canterbury
Race 6
Pythagorean draws awkwardly but the ones I have going forward here are in wide gates so hopefully he can follow them across and find an OK position. On his UK form he's got lengths on these although there are a couple of negatives to bear in mind. On a positive note his Aussie debut was good on wet ground (fast ground suits better) and he looked a live hope at the 300m before lack of condition told late. He's run really well in high class UK handicaps at big meetings and a NMW midweeker should be a walk in the park. The negatives are the awkward draw as already mentioned, the fact he was something of a "bookies horse " (perennialy unlucky) and he never went beyond 1400m in the UK (bred to get this trip and further). The other Waller import Campanology also has very solid UK and Irish form for a race like this and I be inclined to follow any market support for him here too. No sign of any money for him at this stage.
Advised Bet: Pythagorean 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.50 with Tatts for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Bendigo
Race 6
The two coming from maiden grade Fluorescent and The Golden Pig both have more to offer which is not the case with the rest of this field. I've already advised The Golden Pig via Twitter at 13.0 which is overs although he's not entirely certain to get 2400m. I'm happy at this stage with that bet and with the chance that conditions may be wet by now will rest there are this stage.The 13.0 is still there so I'll list this as a bet in the blog.
Advised Bet: The Golden Pig 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 with Bet 365 with the SP and Tote guarantees.
Races 7 and 8 are interesting but track conditions are crucial to anything I want to do there so I'll advise via Twitter
As usual Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Sunday 21 September 2014
Last Weeks Round Up & YTD Figures
A very quiet week with limited opportunities and some very tricky racing. Only 6 bets advised all week and all sent via Twitter. Here are the figures:
Australia
Bets advised in the Blog - None
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 4 races - 1 winner
Stakes 4.30
Profit 1.55 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog- None
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 3.20
Profit 3.42 units
Overall for the week Profit 4.97 units
Year To Date Figures:
Stakes 406.50
Profit 73.58 units
POT 18.10%
Midweek is very quiet this week with no Metro meeting in Victoria on Wednesday. Night racing returns to the Valley on Friday and the premier Melbourne meeting is on Sunday this week. In the UK (it still exists but it's wobbling!) the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting starts on Thursday. So early part of the week is pretty dull and then a frantic weekend in prospect.
Australia
Bets advised in the Blog - None
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 4 races - 1 winner
Stakes 4.30
Profit 1.55 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog- None
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 3.20
Profit 3.42 units
Overall for the week Profit 4.97 units
Year To Date Figures:
Stakes 406.50
Profit 73.58 units
POT 18.10%
Midweek is very quiet this week with no Metro meeting in Victoria on Wednesday. Night racing returns to the Valley on Friday and the premier Melbourne meeting is on Sunday this week. In the UK (it still exists but it's wobbling!) the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting starts on Thursday. So early part of the week is pretty dull and then a frantic weekend in prospect.
Friday 19 September 2014
Caulfield ( Underwood Stakes) & Randwick (George Main Stakes)
Both venues host G1's today and the Spring is in full flow now.
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's generally dry but still an odd shower around but clearing-expect fast conditions.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and drying out.An upgrade seems likely at some stage.Later rain is forecast bur probably doesn't reach the track till racing is over.
This is a very tricky day in my opinion. Some obvious chances but no value in them
Caulfield
Race 1
Don't want to oppose Zeletto but 1.70 is very short
Race 2
Too tricky to evaluate with any confidence
Race 3
Anatina is the obvious if she can carry last prep's improvement through into this one. Generally I'm very reluctant to take shorts about mares resuming. Rifleman has improved this prep. Kencella's first try in Melbourne was a let down at the Valley but if he bounces back from that he's a live hope here.
It doesn't end there and very easy to pass here.
Race 4
Watch and learn
Race 5
Mares handicap and many hopes. Good luck
Race 6
Spillway is a likable horse but he has to concede weight all round here and I'm not at all sure that he is the best horse here. Most will be giving it their best shot as none of them currently rate high enough to guarantee a Caulfield Cup start. Bonfire developed a bad reputation in England as a bookies horse and there is a inkling he may be better with cut in the ground.Foundry is better than his two woeful efforts this Spring and a return to form wouldn't entirely surprise. Our Voodoo Prince promises to be a better horse here than he was in the UK.He's on track for a big run today. Entirely Platinum isn't really a wet tracker and there is definitely more to come from him.
May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 7
Silent Achiever is better than these clearly on achievements to date. Doubt she's be penalised in the Caulfield Cup if she won here as she is well on top on official figures.Will she be fit enough today is the question you have to consider. Maybe but probably not at the top of her game. Foreteller and Happy Trials are likely to be just about ready now and both can win. Stipulate need to improve again to be competitive at this grade. His win last time was excellent and he traveled very strongly throughout in that race suggesting there is more to come.
May do something here but not committed yet
Race 8
Very hard to evaluate with any real confidence other than to say that Samaready back to her best would be winning. Real market confidence would have here around 3.00. She's 4.40 into 4.0 this morning but that's not really anything overly strong at this stage.
Passing here
Race 9
Trust In a Gust is an admirable racehorse. Very genuine and consistent. He's hard to beat here but 2.20 is unders. Cauthen did beat both Shamus Award and Long John last Spring and he only has a mark of 82 although effectively he has to race off 89 today. Lucky Husstler ran very well on his first start for D. Weir last time. Pin Your Hopes resumes after a very good prep last time
Maybe a bet here
Randwick
The first two favs Black Revolver and Rock Sturdy both look unders to me at current2.15 and 2.50 respectively. there may be a couple of speculative bets here later on. Overall it looks a difficult card.
Bets and Updates sent via Twitter
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's generally dry but still an odd shower around but clearing-expect fast conditions.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and drying out.An upgrade seems likely at some stage.Later rain is forecast bur probably doesn't reach the track till racing is over.
This is a very tricky day in my opinion. Some obvious chances but no value in them
Caulfield
Race 1
Don't want to oppose Zeletto but 1.70 is very short
Race 2
Too tricky to evaluate with any confidence
Race 3
Anatina is the obvious if she can carry last prep's improvement through into this one. Generally I'm very reluctant to take shorts about mares resuming. Rifleman has improved this prep. Kencella's first try in Melbourne was a let down at the Valley but if he bounces back from that he's a live hope here.
It doesn't end there and very easy to pass here.
Race 4
Watch and learn
Race 5
Mares handicap and many hopes. Good luck
Race 6
Spillway is a likable horse but he has to concede weight all round here and I'm not at all sure that he is the best horse here. Most will be giving it their best shot as none of them currently rate high enough to guarantee a Caulfield Cup start. Bonfire developed a bad reputation in England as a bookies horse and there is a inkling he may be better with cut in the ground.Foundry is better than his two woeful efforts this Spring and a return to form wouldn't entirely surprise. Our Voodoo Prince promises to be a better horse here than he was in the UK.He's on track for a big run today. Entirely Platinum isn't really a wet tracker and there is definitely more to come from him.
May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 7
Silent Achiever is better than these clearly on achievements to date. Doubt she's be penalised in the Caulfield Cup if she won here as she is well on top on official figures.Will she be fit enough today is the question you have to consider. Maybe but probably not at the top of her game. Foreteller and Happy Trials are likely to be just about ready now and both can win. Stipulate need to improve again to be competitive at this grade. His win last time was excellent and he traveled very strongly throughout in that race suggesting there is more to come.
May do something here but not committed yet
Race 8
Very hard to evaluate with any real confidence other than to say that Samaready back to her best would be winning. Real market confidence would have here around 3.00. She's 4.40 into 4.0 this morning but that's not really anything overly strong at this stage.
Passing here
Race 9
Trust In a Gust is an admirable racehorse. Very genuine and consistent. He's hard to beat here but 2.20 is unders. Cauthen did beat both Shamus Award and Long John last Spring and he only has a mark of 82 although effectively he has to race off 89 today. Lucky Husstler ran very well on his first start for D. Weir last time. Pin Your Hopes resumes after a very good prep last time
Maybe a bet here
Randwick
The first two favs Black Revolver and Rock Sturdy both look unders to me at current2.15 and 2.50 respectively. there may be a couple of speculative bets here later on. Overall it looks a difficult card.
Bets and Updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 16 September 2014
Mornington & Newcastle Today
Metro meeting at Morninton and it's posted a Dead 4 with showers now around. how much rain they bring to the track is not easy to predict and it was a dry morning there until an hour or so ago. I'm making no commitment to anything there today until I see what the ground and the pattern is.
Newcastle has it's first day of it's two day Spring Carnival and in truth it's a pretty lacklustre offering.
It's posted a Dead 4 there but it's dry so an upgrade should happen at some point. The two feature events are the two Group 3's the Spring Stakes and the Cameron Handicap. I cannot personally remember either of these races looking as weak as they do today.
Just the one early bet there at speculative odds:
Newcastle
Race 7
The Autumn equivalent of this race is the Newmarket handicap run over coarse and distance at the track's Autumn Carnival. Slow Pace was first up in that race back in March and ran a fine race finishing third beaten half a length.That was a stronger race than this is and a similar run will see him around the money here. He's had a quiet trial again just like before his effort in the Newmarket. Bowman rides and hopefully he can be a little closer to the speed today. 16.0 (longer on the totes) is big overs in a race that is not easy to price up with any degree of confidence.
I'll stake him as a 9.0 chance.
Advised Bet: Slow Pace 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Bet 365 with the tote guarantees for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Doubt there will be more bets at Newcastle but there are races of definite interest at Mornington depending on track conditions and how markets move. Further bets and updates sent via Twitter
Newcastle has it's first day of it's two day Spring Carnival and in truth it's a pretty lacklustre offering.
It's posted a Dead 4 there but it's dry so an upgrade should happen at some point. The two feature events are the two Group 3's the Spring Stakes and the Cameron Handicap. I cannot personally remember either of these races looking as weak as they do today.
Just the one early bet there at speculative odds:
Newcastle
Race 7
The Autumn equivalent of this race is the Newmarket handicap run over coarse and distance at the track's Autumn Carnival. Slow Pace was first up in that race back in March and ran a fine race finishing third beaten half a length.That was a stronger race than this is and a similar run will see him around the money here. He's had a quiet trial again just like before his effort in the Newmarket. Bowman rides and hopefully he can be a little closer to the speed today. 16.0 (longer on the totes) is big overs in a race that is not easy to price up with any degree of confidence.
I'll stake him as a 9.0 chance.
Advised Bet: Slow Pace 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Bet 365 with the tote guarantees for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Doubt there will be more bets at Newcastle but there are races of definite interest at Mornington depending on track conditions and how markets move. Further bets and updates sent via Twitter
Last Week's Round Up and YTD Figures
In the red last week but no great damage done. It's been a struggle getting the blog out over the last weekend with me being constantly short of time so apologies everything was so brief.
Here are last week's figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 2 races- no winners
Stakes 2.50
Loss 2.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets advised in 12 races - 1 winner
Stakes 9.60
Loss 3.90 units
Australian total for the week Loss 6.40
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - Bets advised in 1 race- no winners
Stakes 0.65
Loss 0.65 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets advised in 8 races- 3 winners
Stakes 13.10
Profit 3.76 units
UK & Int. for the week Profit 3.11
Overall for last week LOSS 3.09 units
YTD overall
Stakes 398.90
PROFIT 68.61
POT 17.20%
Here are last week's figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 2 races- no winners
Stakes 2.50
Loss 2.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets advised in 12 races - 1 winner
Stakes 9.60
Loss 3.90 units
Australian total for the week Loss 6.40
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - Bets advised in 1 race- no winners
Stakes 0.65
Loss 0.65 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets advised in 8 races- 3 winners
Stakes 13.10
Profit 3.76 units
UK & Int. for the week Profit 3.11
Overall for last week LOSS 3.09 units
YTD overall
Stakes 398.90
PROFIT 68.61
POT 17.20%
Sunday 14 September 2014
Super Sunday Action from Longchamp & The Curragh
Outstanding cards at both Longchamp (Good and Dry) & The Curragh (Good to Firm and Dry)
The blog has been low on content this weekend and that trend continues today unfortunately with me very pushed for time.
I'll try to put some info into the Tweets as racing gets underway. There will definitely be bets today sent via Twitter along with Updates
The blog has been low on content this weekend and that trend continues today unfortunately with me very pushed for time.
I'll try to put some info into the Tweets as racing gets underway. There will definitely be bets today sent via Twitter along with Updates
Saturday 13 September 2014
Doncaster Leger Meeting -Day Four
Leger day at Doncaster.
There still posting Good to Soft ,Good in places on the Round course-Good, Good to Firm in places on the Straight course. Dry weather forecast.
I've not finalized my ratings for today. There are a handful of possibilities but not committed at this stage.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Sorry the blog is light on analysis this weekend but I'm very tight for time.
There still posting Good to Soft ,Good in places on the Round course-Good, Good to Firm in places on the Straight course. Dry weather forecast.
I've not finalized my ratings for today. There are a handful of possibilities but not committed at this stage.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Sorry the blog is light on analysis this weekend but I'm very tight for time.
Friday 12 September 2014
Flemington (Makybe Diva) & Rosehill (Golden Rose) Today
Flemington is a Good 3 and Rosehill a Dead 5. It's generally dry now at both venues and there is a possibility Rosehill could upgrade later in the day.
I lost 5 hours yesterday without internet so I'm still playing catch up so this has to be brief today.
There is already one bet out there on Twitter at huge odds and it's very speculative but sound I think.
A word of caution -going in to today there are 9 more Saturdays to go before the last day of the Flemington carnival-lots of quality horses on show but their main targets are ahead of them in many cases.
Have to rely on Twitter today for Bets and Updates
I lost 5 hours yesterday without internet so I'm still playing catch up so this has to be brief today.
There is already one bet out there on Twitter at huge odds and it's very speculative but sound I think.
A word of caution -going in to today there are 9 more Saturdays to go before the last day of the Flemington carnival-lots of quality horses on show but their main targets are ahead of them in many cases.
Have to rely on Twitter today for Bets and Updates
Doncaster Leger Meeting - Day Three
Amazingly it's still officially Good to Soft on the Round Course with Good places. It's been dry all week and I'm working on Good ground allover.
No internet access for a few hours earlier today at my place with a fault on the line that took an age to repair. The good news is it's back for the weekend the bad is that I'm way behind as a result.
Can't help you with anything early today and any bets today will be sent via twitter. There are a few of interest today but I'm not committed to anything at this stage.
No internet access for a few hours earlier today at my place with a fault on the line that took an age to repair. The good news is it's back for the weekend the bad is that I'm way behind as a result.
Can't help you with anything early today and any bets today will be sent via twitter. There are a few of interest today but I'm not committed to anything at this stage.
Thursday 11 September 2014
Doncaster Leger Meeting - Day Two
It's been dry overnight at Doncaster and it was dry yesterday so for there to be any deadness in the ground (Good to Soft in places on the Round Course) suggests they were a bit zealous with the watering. Dry weather so it should be Good or better by the time racing gets underway.
Much better today after yesterday's tepid start.
Race 2
Bragging demolished her rivals at York and she already rates as a group class filly and I doubt she has stopped improving yet. This is a stern test for her but I have her a rock solid 3.0 chance here. J Wonder and Token Of Love are feared most. I tweeted Bragging through a few hours ago and there was 4.20 offered in one place.The advised bet was 1.75 units at 3.20 or better.She's 3.50 now and probably starts a tad shorter. This will be logged as a bet advised via Twitter
Race 8
Bajan Bear has kept improving through the Summer with his only blot being on wet ground. He did well from a poor draw last time and he's worth an interest in an open race.
Advised Bet: Bajan Bear 0.65 units at 8.0 or better- monitor on Betfair currently 10.0 plus
There may be more later and further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Much better today after yesterday's tepid start.
Race 2
Bragging demolished her rivals at York and she already rates as a group class filly and I doubt she has stopped improving yet. This is a stern test for her but I have her a rock solid 3.0 chance here. J Wonder and Token Of Love are feared most. I tweeted Bragging through a few hours ago and there was 4.20 offered in one place.The advised bet was 1.75 units at 3.20 or better.She's 3.50 now and probably starts a tad shorter. This will be logged as a bet advised via Twitter
Race 8
Bajan Bear has kept improving through the Summer with his only blot being on wet ground. He did well from a poor draw last time and he's worth an interest in an open race.
Advised Bet: Bajan Bear 0.65 units at 8.0 or better- monitor on Betfair currently 10.0 plus
There may be more later and further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Wednesday 10 September 2014
Doncaster St Leger Meeting - Day One
Good to Soft with Good places is posted for day one of the Leger meeting.Expect it generally to dry out to Good during the day and with a fair dry week ahead it should be fast racing ground as the week goes on.
Today's racing makes very little appeal bets wise and I doubt I'll be backing anything.A few look obvious on form but they are not without negatives and are generally a bit short.
Hopefully things will pick up as the week progresses but it's a bit of a lacklustre start to the meeting.
Any bets (unlikely) /updates sent via Twitter
Today's racing makes very little appeal bets wise and I doubt I'll be backing anything.A few look obvious on form but they are not without negatives and are generally a bit short.
Hopefully things will pick up as the week progresses but it's a bit of a lacklustre start to the meeting.
Any bets (unlikely) /updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 9 September 2014
Bendigo & Warwick Farm Today
Bendigo is a Dead 4 and it's dry and an upgrade may be a possibility.
Warwick Farm had plenty of rain overnight and is a Heavy 8.The rain seems to have cleared now so it's just a question of how accurate that 8 rating is. Doubt it will deteriorate further as no more rain seems likely.
Two early bets today have both already been sent via Twitter but the prices are still there .
Bendigo
Race 5
Churchill Express and Melting Moments seem the two most likely here. Although dropping back a 100m may not be ideal for Churchill Express at 6.50 he's way overs. I'm always a little wary when mares are resuming but concede Melting Moments will be tough to beat if turning up fully fit and in form.
Advised Bet: Churchill Express 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365 with the guarantees they offer.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Waller runs four here and they take out about 60% plus of the market on early figures. That gives up some value looking elsewhere and the two I like are Lucky Liason who comes here off the back of a fine effort when almost landing the Cup at Taree, likes the wet and has won here over this trip and his rider gets to claim 3kg's here and, Miss Venus who will be fully fit now and has a 2200m win here last prep to her credit,ran well in the wet last time and again has the 3kg claim.
Advised Bets: Lucky Liason 0.75 units at 6.80 or better-take the 8.0 (WG) at Bet 365
Miss Venus 0.65 at 8.0 or better-take the 11.0 (WG) at Bet365
Further bets updates sent via Twitter.
St Leger meeting at Doncaster gets underway later today and there will be another blog out for that.
Warwick Farm had plenty of rain overnight and is a Heavy 8.The rain seems to have cleared now so it's just a question of how accurate that 8 rating is. Doubt it will deteriorate further as no more rain seems likely.
Two early bets today have both already been sent via Twitter but the prices are still there .
Bendigo
Race 5
Churchill Express and Melting Moments seem the two most likely here. Although dropping back a 100m may not be ideal for Churchill Express at 6.50 he's way overs. I'm always a little wary when mares are resuming but concede Melting Moments will be tough to beat if turning up fully fit and in form.
Advised Bet: Churchill Express 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365 with the guarantees they offer.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Waller runs four here and they take out about 60% plus of the market on early figures. That gives up some value looking elsewhere and the two I like are Lucky Liason who comes here off the back of a fine effort when almost landing the Cup at Taree, likes the wet and has won here over this trip and his rider gets to claim 3kg's here and, Miss Venus who will be fully fit now and has a 2200m win here last prep to her credit,ran well in the wet last time and again has the 3kg claim.
Advised Bets: Lucky Liason 0.75 units at 6.80 or better-take the 8.0 (WG) at Bet 365
Miss Venus 0.65 at 8.0 or better-take the 11.0 (WG) at Bet365
Further bets updates sent via Twitter.
St Leger meeting at Doncaster gets underway later today and there will be another blog out for that.
Sunday 7 September 2014
Weekly Round Up and YTD Figures
Decent week to kick start September. Here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 4 races - No winners
Stakes 3.50
Loss 3.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 10 races -2 winners
Stakes 10.85
Profit 6.48 units
Weekly total for Australia Profit 2.98 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog -Bets in 1 race - 1 winner
Stakes 0.75
Profit 6.00 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets in 2 races - 1winner
Stakes 2.65
Profit 4.78 units
Weekly total for UK Profit 10.78 units
Overall total for the week 13.76 units.
The combined figures for blogs and tweets for the year to date are Stakes 373.05, Profit 71.70 units for POT of 19.22%.
After advising that the numbers were too low to start the planned "private service " last week I had a few emails from people saying they wanted to come on board. Unfortunately it's too late now for this year but if you have already contacted me then you should have had a reply explaining that things were not going ahead as the numbers were not big enough. I'll put the idea on hold now until January as I am relocating at the end of the year and want to get that out of the way first. If you made contact already then you'll be first in line but anyone else who is interested should email me their interest. I won't ever take more than 30 otherwise there are too many people chasing too little but do need at least 15 to begin. I can't do it properly without some help during racing and they have to be paid obviously.
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 4 races - No winners
Stakes 3.50
Loss 3.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 10 races -2 winners
Stakes 10.85
Profit 6.48 units
Weekly total for Australia Profit 2.98 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog -Bets in 1 race - 1 winner
Stakes 0.75
Profit 6.00 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets in 2 races - 1winner
Stakes 2.65
Profit 4.78 units
Weekly total for UK Profit 10.78 units
Overall total for the week 13.76 units.
The combined figures for blogs and tweets for the year to date are Stakes 373.05, Profit 71.70 units for POT of 19.22%.
After advising that the numbers were too low to start the planned "private service " last week I had a few emails from people saying they wanted to come on board. Unfortunately it's too late now for this year but if you have already contacted me then you should have had a reply explaining that things were not going ahead as the numbers were not big enough. I'll put the idea on hold now until January as I am relocating at the end of the year and want to get that out of the way first. If you made contact already then you'll be first in line but anyone else who is interested should email me their interest. I won't ever take more than 30 otherwise there are too many people chasing too little but do need at least 15 to begin. I can't do it properly without some help during racing and they have to be paid obviously.
Saturday 6 September 2014
Saturday's UK Racing
A few possibilities today but just the one early bet:
Ascot
Race 1
Good handicap but both Safety Check and Cornrow look capable of better. At the current odds Safety Check makes most appeal especially with a handy 5lb claimer aboard.May save or more on Cornrow if the price get's out a little. Will advise via Twitter later
Advised Bet: Safety Check 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
There won't be a lot today but there almost certainly will be more.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Recovering from a poor week health wise so apologies for today's blogs being brief
Ascot
Race 1
Good handicap but both Safety Check and Cornrow look capable of better. At the current odds Safety Check makes most appeal especially with a handy 5lb claimer aboard.May save or more on Cornrow if the price get's out a little. Will advise via Twitter later
Advised Bet: Safety Check 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
There won't be a lot today but there almost certainly will be more.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Recovering from a poor week health wise so apologies for today's blogs being brief
Friday 5 September 2014
Moonee Valley & Randwick Today
Moonee Valley is a Good 3 and dry so expect decent racing ground there.
Randwick is down to a Heavy 9 after being deluged this morning-it may be or get worse so monitor conditions.
Very unwell this week but much better today but short on time so the blog has to be brief.
One race I've played in early
Randwick R8
Rock Sturdy is a worthy favourite but far too short in these conditions.Corryvrekan and Supreme Warrior are hardened battlers proven in these conditions and both are solid value here. This has already gone out by twitter as an early bet: 0.65 units Corryvreckan -take 9.0 with Luxbet (now gone) and 0.55 units Supreme Warrior -take the 19.0 with Bet365 still available. Will be recorded as a bet sent via Twitter for record keeping purposes.
There will be more today I'm sure sent via twitter and I'll try to find time for a UK blog covering the good racing there later today
Randwick is down to a Heavy 9 after being deluged this morning-it may be or get worse so monitor conditions.
Very unwell this week but much better today but short on time so the blog has to be brief.
One race I've played in early
Randwick R8
Rock Sturdy is a worthy favourite but far too short in these conditions.Corryvrekan and Supreme Warrior are hardened battlers proven in these conditions and both are solid value here. This has already gone out by twitter as an early bet: 0.65 units Corryvreckan -take 9.0 with Luxbet (now gone) and 0.55 units Supreme Warrior -take the 19.0 with Bet365 still available. Will be recorded as a bet sent via Twitter for record keeping purposes.
There will be more today I'm sure sent via twitter and I'll try to find time for a UK blog covering the good racing there later today
Tuesday 2 September 2014
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Sandown is a Dead 5 and improving so there's a fair chance that it will upgrade.
Canterbury is a Slow 7 and it's missed the rain this morning but there is some working up from the South. If the rain misses it's very windy so it should dry out a fair bit but if the rain does hit then maybe it'll stay wet.Obviously monitor. Strong winds may be a factor too.
Canterbury R4
I'm right out of step with the market here. I have Nordic Duke at 7.0 MAX here yet he's available with Bet365 at 17.0. He's travelled up from Melbourne so maybe there is a negative attached to the journey. He's a point higher than when he last won and most subsequent efforts have been sound. There should be OK speed on upfront here to help him get home, he likes the wet and has a handy 3kg's claimer aboard
Advised Bet; Nordic Duke 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-take the 17.0
There may be more at Canterbury later via twitter
Sandown
Race 4
I like Zeletto and he'll be hard to beat.I also like Farolitos enough to stop me taking a thin price about Zeletto although a 1000m might be a bit sharp for him.
Does anyone have a rational explanation why an unraced horse can debut in a handicap with anything other than top weight? Hammered has had no trials or runs yet he's allotted 55.5 kg's.It's a benchmark 70. This is nonsense. It happened last year when a filly trained by Danny O'brien debued in a Saturday handicap of a low weight and beat the favourite. Surely if you want to bypass the maidens and go to a handicap untried you must get top weight. Greg Carpenter please explain!
Race 6
After the way he's gone over the last year I get wary thinking that one of D.K. Weir's is too short but despite Must Be Mink having solid claims here 3.40 is too short. Much more appealing is Elle Excite who won really well at Mornington and was well backed to do so. The extra 200m will suit her.The last win was on wet but she's proven on drier and has a nice gate. She has upside and I have her on top marginally here. 7.50 looks big overs but she's blown a bit this morning and is bigger on the totes.
Advised Bet: Elle Excite 1 unit at 5.50 or over- have 35% at the 7.50 and monitor closely with the balance.
Race 7
Yesterday's Songs is very obvious here and if all goes well in the run he'll be very hard to beat. I don't like gate 1 for get back horses though and he will need a good steer. At 2.50 I won't be playing.Mahican draws to be handier today and he's the other obvious hope.
When Fracking won his UK maiden he bolted up by 5 lengths. The runner up (was level weights) now races of a UK mark of 88 (translates to Aussie scale around 77). Here's Fracking of a mark of 67.
He made all at Goodwood that day and from gate 3 could lead here. If he's fit and ready he's overs here at 21.0
Advised Bet: Fracking 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 21.0 with Bet365 as they have guarantees if it blows (best tote)
Race 8
Most of these are out for first up effort getting fitter for further. The 3 that look suited and are fit are Digitalism, Longeron and St Mark. By far the most appealing of that trio is Digitalism and he's a solid pecentage bet here. The other one that is interesting at odds is Martinvast who should push on from a wide gate.
Advised Bet Digitalism 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-take the 5.0 with 365
Martinvast 0.30 units at 19.0 or better-take the 34.0 with 365
Canterbury is a Slow 7 and it's missed the rain this morning but there is some working up from the South. If the rain misses it's very windy so it should dry out a fair bit but if the rain does hit then maybe it'll stay wet.Obviously monitor. Strong winds may be a factor too.
Canterbury R4
I'm right out of step with the market here. I have Nordic Duke at 7.0 MAX here yet he's available with Bet365 at 17.0. He's travelled up from Melbourne so maybe there is a negative attached to the journey. He's a point higher than when he last won and most subsequent efforts have been sound. There should be OK speed on upfront here to help him get home, he likes the wet and has a handy 3kg's claimer aboard
Advised Bet; Nordic Duke 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-take the 17.0
There may be more at Canterbury later via twitter
Sandown
Race 4
I like Zeletto and he'll be hard to beat.I also like Farolitos enough to stop me taking a thin price about Zeletto although a 1000m might be a bit sharp for him.
Does anyone have a rational explanation why an unraced horse can debut in a handicap with anything other than top weight? Hammered has had no trials or runs yet he's allotted 55.5 kg's.It's a benchmark 70. This is nonsense. It happened last year when a filly trained by Danny O'brien debued in a Saturday handicap of a low weight and beat the favourite. Surely if you want to bypass the maidens and go to a handicap untried you must get top weight. Greg Carpenter please explain!
Race 6
After the way he's gone over the last year I get wary thinking that one of D.K. Weir's is too short but despite Must Be Mink having solid claims here 3.40 is too short. Much more appealing is Elle Excite who won really well at Mornington and was well backed to do so. The extra 200m will suit her.The last win was on wet but she's proven on drier and has a nice gate. She has upside and I have her on top marginally here. 7.50 looks big overs but she's blown a bit this morning and is bigger on the totes.
Advised Bet: Elle Excite 1 unit at 5.50 or over- have 35% at the 7.50 and monitor closely with the balance.
Race 7
Yesterday's Songs is very obvious here and if all goes well in the run he'll be very hard to beat. I don't like gate 1 for get back horses though and he will need a good steer. At 2.50 I won't be playing.Mahican draws to be handier today and he's the other obvious hope.
When Fracking won his UK maiden he bolted up by 5 lengths. The runner up (was level weights) now races of a UK mark of 88 (translates to Aussie scale around 77). Here's Fracking of a mark of 67.
He made all at Goodwood that day and from gate 3 could lead here. If he's fit and ready he's overs here at 21.0
Advised Bet: Fracking 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 21.0 with Bet365 as they have guarantees if it blows (best tote)
Race 8
Most of these are out for first up effort getting fitter for further. The 3 that look suited and are fit are Digitalism, Longeron and St Mark. By far the most appealing of that trio is Digitalism and he's a solid pecentage bet here. The other one that is interesting at odds is Martinvast who should push on from a wide gate.
Advised Bet Digitalism 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-take the 5.0 with 365
Martinvast 0.30 units at 19.0 or better-take the 34.0 with 365
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)