Oaks,Guineas & QTC Cup at Eagle Farm plus Sandown & Rosehill

Good at Eagle Farm but with a fair chance of some rain during the day so monitor conditions there.
Sandown posts a Dead 5 and it should be dry there so hopefully it will upgrade.Rosehill posts a Good 3 and showers in Sydney looks most likely to affect the coastal fringe so Rosehill should miss them.

Blackbookers engaged today are:-

Eagle Farm         R3   Akzar
                            R7  Khutulun

Morphetville       R3 Madog
                            R4 Aeratus

Rosehill               R5 Longshoreman

Sandown             R5 Griante
                            R6 Refulgent
                            R7 St Jean


Eagle Farm

Race 3
This is sure to be tactical and in those circumstances I don't want to be rushing into 2.60 for Akzar. I think he's the most likely winner but for me to be involved today I'd ideally like to see some rain and at least 3.0

Race 7
Arabian Gold is around 2.60 this morning and she's fully entitled to be favourite here. Thie trip worries me a bit with her though so I want to find so value away from her. Sancerre has had a couple of warm up's for this since coming over from NZ. She looks pretty useful and she's out of that quality NZ mare Vouvray by O'Reilly so she bred to do the job.I've backed her at 13.0 this morning.Khutulun has a bit to find on figures but she's definitely better than her form reads.She drawn badly and will have to go forward early to find a position.Melham does the steering and he's come back in fine form so  I backing her too now she out to double figure odds.

Advised Bets: Sancerre 0.55 at 9.0 (shortening) or better,Khutulun 0.45 at 11.0 or better (drifting)


Rosehill

Race 3
I thought Scatcat was the overs here at 8.50 against my rating of 6.0.Gets a good run behind the speed and her efforts in Melbourne have been OK for a race like this.Blackboard Special is promising but draws out and will be giving a start away

Advised Bet: Scatcat 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.50 now

Race 5
Rugged Cross was atrocious last time.He's much better than that effort surely although I'm not sure he's one to have too much confidence in. He is clearly the one to beat if he returns to the form he's shown in Melbourne Longshoreman won really well last time and i still think there is a bit more to come from him. Adorabeel is promising but this is a big class jump
May play here but not committed yet.

Sandown

Race 7
Conceed there are not many you can fancy here and St Jean the obvious but I couldn't back him at 2.50 with the wide barrier to overcome. He's far too short I think. I wish Sacred Flyer had shown a bit more last time but I'm considering backing him.Not committed yet though.

Race 8
Onpicalo is clearly the one to beat from gate 1 but 2.0 is rock bottom.Stablemate Mighty Like must be a live chance after winning three on the trot although he's 5 weeks between runs so may need it today. The big overs is Upbeat at 18.0. I tweeted this through last night expecting him to shorten but the 18.0 is still there.My figures have him at 8.0

Advised Bet: Upbeat 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-take the 18.0 with Bet365 if you can get on

Two blackbookers running at Morphetville but passing on both.Aeratus is a risk at 1600m and Madog goes from a maiden to -72 grade.Both can win but I'm not playing

Mornington & Canterbury Today

Mornington is a Slow 6 and there is a chance of more showers there.Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's dry in Sydney.
Excellent article by Daniel O'Sullivan of Smartform regarding the watering policy of .A must read if you are a serious punter on racing in Victoria.I retweeted his post this morning.

Early handicaps at Mornington make little appeal betting wise but things get interesting from race 7 onwards.
Canterbury is generally difficult although I'm keen on one race there.

Canterbury

Race 4
White Devon did a stack of work last time and still battled on to run second.The winner there may be fair type so with White Devon likely to have a much easier time of things in the run today I'm happy to be with her.

Advised Bet: White Devon 1.40 units at 3.70 or better-4.40 on offer now


Mornington

Possibilities in races 7, 8 and 9 and will tweet if I'm playing there

Bets/Lays/Updates via twitter during the afternoon

Weekly Round Up

A very tough week on a personal level away from the racing with serious family issues making it very hard to stay focused.Car broken into, vandalized and immobilized which only went to infuriate and complicated an already bad week.
I did no business last week on UK racing as my schedules were compromised by other factors but I watched all the replays so I'm still on top of things.
Poor week on the Australian racing and it adds to what is a miserable month so far. Here are the figures for last week:-

UK and International
NO bets advised this week

Australia

Bets advised in the blog-2 bets 0 winners
Stakes     2.70
LOSS      2.70

Bets advised via Twitter 8 races-0 winners

Stakes     8.65
LOSS      8.65

Total LOSS for the week  11.35 units

Need things to pick up all round at the moment

10,000 at Doomben plus Flemington & Randwick

Doomben is a Good 3 and dry.Flemington is a Dead 4 but dry so may upgrade.Randwick posted a Slow 6 this am but is now a Dead 5.May upgrade again. Why it was a Slow 6 this am is quite mystifying.It's been a dry week in Sydney and Wednesday's meeting on the adjacent Kenso track was run on a Good 3. As in all things Racing New South Wales expect a less than satisfactory explanation.
A very tough week so far with events unconnected with racing. Sometimes is doesn't matter how much you tell the outside world to piss off and leave you alone to get on with your work it just will not. It's the same for everyone I know but once I get irate and frazzled my performance levels punting wise are definitely affected.

Just the two early ones today

Randwick

Race 6
I'm assuming there will be still some juice in the ground by now as Secessio isn't at all disadvantaged by wet conditions. Up to 2400m here suits him ideally.Sure La Amisted is a promising stayer but she's 16 points wrong with Secessio on official figures and that's after a 6 point hike for her last win.

Advised bet : Secessio 1.05 units at 5.0 or better-take the 7.0 on offer now for half the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance


Doomben

Race 5
Platinum Rocker has some top line WA form to her credit and she ran well in the wet when resuming.She gets a good run here and should be shorter according to my figures.Srikandi has an awkward draw to deal with but she's very promising.Plucky Belle draws out in the cheap seats also.Chintz has good NZ form but may just need this

Advised Bet: Platinum Belle 1.65 units at 4.20 or better-take the 5.0 on offer now for half the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.

Any further Bets/Lays and Updates sent via Twitter

Sandown & Kensington Today

Sandown Is a Dead 4 and the Kenso track is a Good 3.Little or no rain around at either venue so Sandown may upgrade later.

I tweeted through a couple of early bets (odds are still there) and they are as follows:-

Sandown R9
Marksmanship gets out to a trip he wants here.He will be going forward and has the 2kg claim as well.His European efforts suggest this is a very winnable race for him.I've got a 3.0 chance here and Bet 365 are betting 4.20.I know the problems of getting on that a lot of us have but it's still there if you are able to get it.

Advised Bet: Marksmanship 1.65 units at 3.20 or better


Sandown R10
Rainbow Gold has the wide gate to overcome so Noonan will probably have to press on here.The 64 race he ran second in is probably the strongest race in that grade run in Victoria in recent weeks. I've got him at 6.25 here absolute max and there is plenty of 9.0 on offer-11.0 with Bet 365

Advised Bet: Rainbow Gold 0.80 units at 6.50 or better

Both these two will be listed as bets advised in the blog. as nothing has changed since I sent the Tweets

There are possibilities in Sydney and in earlier races at Sandown and any more today will be sent via twitter

Weekly Round Up

In the red again last week as far as the blog is concerned although there wasn't a lot of action and the damage wasn't very big.Here are the figures:-

Australia

Bets in the blog  1 bet-no winners
   
Stakes        1.05 units
LOSS         1.05 units

Bets sent via Twitter  2 races -no winners

Stakes         2.70 units
LOSS          2.70 units

Australian total  3.75units LOSS


UK and International

Bets in the blog   3 races-no winners

Stakes         3.90 units
LOSS          3.90 units

Bets sent via Twitter  1 race - 1 winner

Stakes          1.35 units
PROFIT       4.53 units

UK & Int. total  0.78 units PROFIT

Overall total for the week  2.97 units LOSS

Missed out on a couple of nicely priced winners last week-marginal calls and went the wrong way so a bit frustrating overall.

I'm at a tipping point with this blog at the moment.I know that there are  quite a few regular followers  but by now I would have hoped to have more. The options are to can it or to make a big push and put more time into it and hope the numbers pick up.I'll opt for the latter option and make a big effort over the next two months and review after that. If your a follower and you want it to continue than tell a few of your mates about it.I need 100 regular followers really to justify the effort involved in putting it out.

Lockinge at Newbury plus Newmarket & Thirsk

G1 Lockinge stakes at Newbury and it really does look Olympic Glory's race to lose.He's well clear of these on the book and if he returns in top form then he should be winning. Not a race to be betting in for me.
All three tracks are basically Good and Newmarket and Newbury may be a little faster than that as the day wears on.There are possible showers at Newmarket later so monitor the weather there.
Again only one bet today at the moment

Newmarket

Race 4
Valuable 3-y-o sprint handicap.Stomp looks a horse with a future and 3.75 may look a skinny price to be taking in a early season race like this but I'm happy to play at those odds as my figures have him at 3.0

Advised Bet: Stomp 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-I took 4.0 earlier but 3.75 is value.

I'm considering backing Mount Athos in the second race at Newbury but I'm not committed yet.There are another couple of possibilities and if there is anything else I'll send it via twitter

Doomben Cup,Caulfield & Scone

The Brisbane Carnival is in full swing now with today's highlight the G1 Doomben Cup over 2000m.Dead 5 posted and if Doomben misses the odd shower forecast that could quickly upgrade-monitor.

Race 7
Have to be with the massively improved Akzar here although I'll concede it's a big rise in class to G1 WFA. He has the figures though after the demolition job he did on the field at Warrnambool and at 5.50 he has to be backed.

Adsvised Bet: Akzar 1.05 units at 5.0 or better or better.Take the 5.50  (SP,Tote guarantees) with Bet 365 if they'll let you on,other wise shop around on Betfair.

Caulfield and Scone are both Good 3 and dry weather is expected.Possibilities at both tracks but not many bets wise and I'm not yet committed so Bets/Lays and updates throughout the afternoon via Twitter

York May Meeting-Day Three plus Newbury and Newmarket

Final day of the York May meeting and the ground is now Good,Good to Soft in places.Expect it to keep drying out with another fine day ahead. Good at Newbury and Newmarket and drying out at both those tracks too.
It's been tough finding anything to back this week and that tread continues today. All three afternoon venues have good cards but there is only one horse I'm definitely backing today.
Time constraints prevent me going into great detail today with the York card so I'll just stick to the only bet.

Newbury

Race 3
Balmoral Castle is sound performer at this level and he's in career best form being impressive coming from a poor position when winning at Warwick last time.This C/D suits him and I expect him to be very hard to beat in a modest event.

Advised Bet: Balmoral Castle 1.85 units at 2.80 or better-monitor on Betfair

York May Meeting-Day Two

York posts Good to Soft,Soft in places but with drying conditions prevailing it's possible that it will be genuinely Good ground as the afternoon progresses.
Good racing again as you'd expect but I'm not going to be able to help you with any bets today as the card looks unappealing from a betting point of view.

Race 1
Impossibly difficult 5 furlong handicap-ultra competitive and a few of these are in and out performers.

Race 2
Tricky and trappy filly's and mares G2. Couldn't possibly play here

Race 3
True story looks a colt of real quality and he gets his chance to underline his Epsom credentials in this long established Derby trial.Bunker is still unexposed and he has a victory over french guineas winner Karakontie so he'll be no pushover and is a fair price at around 5.0 on Betfair if you want to oppose the odds on favourite.

Race 4
Extremely difficult Listed handicap.Fury is favourite at 5.50 and that looks skinny as there aren't many you can rule out here.Navajo Chief goes really well here and he'd be an ironical winner with his trainer being put out of business imminently by the BHA for undisclosed issues.Mmnn!

Race 5
Justice Day has clearly the best form but at around 2.30 I don't want to play on a 3-y-o resuming.His best form is with juice in the ground and there may not be much of that left by post time today.I liked the look of Ecclestone at Sandown and he'd be where I'd be looking for an alternative to the obvious here.

Race 6
2-y-o race so a watch race only for me

Race 7
Calculated Risk was given to much to do when he returned to the flat at Pontefract.He's the obvious based on that eye catching effort but that race was much weaker than this one and there are some serious sluggers engaged here.Very,very tough.

Interesting card at Salisbury but difficult and a evening fixture at Newmarket where there is a possibility I may be betting. Will advise via Twitter if that's the case

York May Meeting-Day One

Day one of the York May Meeting and the going is posted as Soft,Good to Soft in places.The weather forecast is for a fair day and the rain is gone now so this track should be on the improve as the day goes on.No rain forecast for the next couple of days either so it promises to be an excellent meeting and I'm looking forward to it.

Race 1
I passed on Rye House when he won here last year at this meeting thinking 3.25 was short enough.He never raced again last season so I assume there must have been issues with him.He's up 10 points here for that win and on offer at 4.50 today.I like the horse and I don't want to oppose him but at the price I couldn't back him either. There are plenty of reasonably viable alternatives here and it's a rattling good handicap to get the meeting under way 

Race 2
This is a most open race and again a very good handicap with any number of chances.Passing here

Race 3
Oaks trial for the 3-y-o fillies. A very interesting race but not a betting one in my opinion.Lots of unexposed types as you would expect and nothing with established form on the board that I want to back

Race 4
G2 sprint.We should have a good idea if the ground is drying out significantly by now.Jack Dexter has the best form but he's a real mudder so drying conditions may reduce his form advantage.
At odds I'll go again at Body And Soul who very much fits the profile of an Easterby plot. She's a fair bit better than her two efforts this season suggest and there is a really good race in her this season. At around 16.0 she's worth an interest.

Advised Bet: Body and Soul 0.40 units at 14.0 or better

Race 5
Good 3-y-o handicap and a good marker for the future.That Is The Spirit was very impressive when waltzing up in a very strong maiden at Doncaster. He's been handed a mark of 90 so he'll need to be on the verge of Listed grade to win this but I couldn't oppose him so easily did he win. Not committed here at the moment as there are any number of potential improvers here.

Race 6
2-y-o race so I'll be watching only here

Race 7
Gabriels Star won an apprentice event at Chester last week in good style an escapes a penalty here. That was run on heavy ground though and by now this track should be closer to Good to Soft than Soft. Of course he's a solid hope but at 3.25 on Betfair I have taken him on. I think he should be at least 4.0 minumum here so hopefully the market will move in my favour and I can trade some of my liability back at better odds. It's an open race I think.

Updates and bets/lays via Twitter during the racing

Sandown & Canterbury Today

Both Sandown and Canterbury post Dead 4 tracks and the weather is set to be dry and warm in both locations so we ought to be dealing with Good 3 tracks providing the early morning posts are accurate.
I don't think I've seen a more challenging card to punt on than the one at Sandown today. I'll be concentrating firmly on the "lay" side of the book there today and at Canterbury too which is not quite are difficult to unravel but nothing appeals as a bet. I will be taking one on big time though at Canterbury though but with Betfair markets undeveloped at this stage I'll be hanging on to my opinion until I've got matched on Betfair.
One of the problems advising potential "lays" is the lack of action in Betfair markets except on Saturdays and big race days.On the normal days you are obliged to hold off until you've got set yourself and often once you are and the price heads north the info is not really of much use to anyone else after it's price has drifted 15/20%.
These really open and difficult cards are a product of the rating system. As Australian handicappers begin to use the system more aggressively ( they are slowly beginning to ) it will become harder and harder to unravel the form. This is the case with a lots of the UK handicaps where the rating system is used very aggressively by the handicappers.Horses are raised 10/12 points for an easy win and conversely dropped down the ratings very quickly if they run two or three poor races. The very erudite and entertaining James Willoughby who acts as a pundit on Racing UK coined the term "equine bingo" to describe many races . Bookies love cards like this and obviously punters don't.There is strong evidence coming out of the UK that it's starting to become a big turn off for punters and and they are starting to give racing the elbow.
When Sunday racing,all weather racing and the ratings system came into place I was very strongly approving of all and a strong advocate for all three. Sometimes things are best left alone but unfortunately once the thing is up and running it's too late. Now I'm against all these three abominations but having been all for them 25 years ago I'm stuck with them.
There's a quote from somewhere maybe it's biblical that goes "by careful for what you want for you will surely get it".

Updates/Lays via Twitter throughout the afternoon

Weekly Round Up

Things had been chugging along nicely so far this year so a reality check was due and it came last week.
I got knocked for six with a nasty virus and nothing went right punting wise at all.
Reviewing the bets and the lays this morning and very sad reading it makes.
I don't like losing weeks/months but they are an inevitable part of life if you are punting. As long as I can review the bets I've had and feel satisfied that I'm operating within my normal parameters I can take the losing periods in my stride. That's not the case this last week where some of the decisions to bet and lay look very flaky on reflection and there were a couple that went unbacked and won that I definitely should have been on. My main job now is to get myself back in the zone asap.
 Maybe you just shouldn't bet when you are sick.Anyway I'm having a couple of quiet days to settle my head down and will be back into it on Wednesday.
Meanwhile here are the very disappointing figures from last week:-

Australia

 All bets sent via Twitter- bets in 8 races -no winners

Stakes     10.05
Loss        10.05 units

UK & International

Bets in the blog-1 bet-no winners

Stakes      1 unit
Loss         1 unit

Bets sent via Twitter-3 bets -no winners

Stakes      3.15 units
Loss         3.15 units

Overall LOSS for the week 14.20 units
Overall PROFIT for the year 18.86 units

Classic Trials at Lingfield,Victoria Cup at Ascot plus Nottingham & Haydock

I've been struggling health wise this week with a nasty virus so the blogs are a bit sparse.
Very tough day to get enthused about anything I want to back at the main meetings today but I may get involved at Nottingham in one or maybe two races.
I'll start covering things in more detail next week when the York Spring meeting gets under way but for today if I'm backing anything I'll pass the details via Twitter.

G1 Racing in Adelaide & Brisbane plus Flemington & Rosehill

There's been a lot to plough through this weekend.
Morphettville is Heavy 8.Doomben is a Good 3.Flemington a Slow 6 and Rosehill a Dead 4.Those reading look set to stay but monitor to be sure.

Blackbookers engaged today are :-

Cranbourne    R2  Tracy's Image
Doomben       R4  Shaumari
Flemington    R2   Special Miss
                       R3  Nicamorae
                            I'm Fearsome
                       R5  Kingdom Of Dreams
Morphettville R5 Miss Outshine
                       R7 Sistine Demon
                       R8 Girl Guide
Rosehill          R3 Darci Magic
                       R4 Oxford Poet
                       R5 Dream Empress
                       R8 As Needed

I've had no early bets today.

Bets/Lays/Updates sent via Twitter

Chester May Meeting-Day Three

Soft ground at Chester and more rain around.The rail has been moved out again so the inside should still be OKand there will be the cutaway in the straight.
I hate betting in these conditions unless I'm on a real wet tracker and I'm sure it's definitely going to be in the right spot in the run. The pendulum swings decisively in favour of the layers in these conditions and it's there that you need to be concentrating your attention when faced with deteriorating tracks.
Good racing but only working on the "lay" side of the exchange today so there is nothing I can advise as a bet.
Lingfield has a bizarre going description of Good on the straight course but Soft from the 7f to the 5f.That's enough to have me very wary about playing on that track until I've seen a race ot two.On the Round track it's Good,Good to Firm in places.
Lots of non runners coming through at Chester including Mount Athos in the Ormonde which rather takes the gloss of that race.
Can't help you with much early today.
Latest via Twitter during racing.  

Chester May Meeting-Day Two

Good to Soft this morning at Chester and more rain forecast.Probably looking at Slow.
Good card as you would expect but very difficult if your punting.

Race 1
Marcret is on a good mark considering he's won around here last season off a 5lb lower mark and he likes wet ground.He's since joined the excellent David O'Meara and his recent run at Ripon was good in a decent race.He's usually a front runner but if they try to lead here I think he'll be pratted out wide as he was when trying to follow up around here last season.Whether he'll be as effective ridden a bit quieter remains to be seen. That's Plenty is progressive and won well at Musselburgh -he likes it wet too.Sennockin Star is always a factor and Gabriel The Great may get the race run to suit.Pass

Race 2
Very good race.I like Ektihaam but he likes to dictate and front running tactics worked so well for Noble Mission last time that they may be determined to force the issue again.Telescope will be fitter and is still probably unexposed.Danadana and Gabriels Kaka are hard to emphatically dismiss so it's a no play race for me

Race 3
Derby trial and form lines from all over and very hard to line up with any accuracy.The O'Brien pair Carlo Bugatti and Orchestra head the market but if either were considered outstanding by the stable they would surely be at much shorter odds.Watch and learn

Race 4
Tricky race-Our Gabrial may still have more to offer but I'm not betting here

The other races are very hard to evaluate.Looks a tough day

Chester May Meeting-Day One-Cup Day

Successful punting isn't only about doing the form well. Striking the correct balance between being too cautious and too aggressive is essential. I've worked on disciplining myself over a lot of years and overall these days I'm happy I have the balance about right most of the time.Being able to focus totally on what your doing is also of great importance as outside irritations and distractions will put you off your game.
Today I woke up feeling dreadful and realized that I had fallen victim to the virus that has kept my teenage daughter off school this week. Feeling sicker and more irritable as the day wore on I had a bet mid afternoon that was just plain wrong.Easy to say perhaps afterwards when it's beaten but I'm sure on reflection that me 100% fit and focused would have passed on the bet. Just an example of how alert and focused you have to be to make sure you are ahead of the curve. Mistakes are usually severely punished and rightly so.
I've given myself a monumental bollocking and drop kicked the cat over the balcony to vent some frustration (only joking) and whilst I still feel shithouse my head is much clearer.

Chester May Meeting and Cup day.Good,Good to Firm in places is the morning reading but there are showers around and some rain is likely.
I don't usually have a lot of bets at this meeting but I usually find a handful that interest me over the three days. Just one early bet today and that's in the Cup

Chester

Race 3
Mubaraza returned gelded at Ripon last month and ran an excellent trial for this race finishing second to Angel Gabriel who re-opposes today on 3lb worse terms. The draw matters in this race despite the marathon distance and Mubaraza has berth 5 and Angel Gabrial has 11.It's a tight and open race as it usually is but at 6.0 I think Mubaraza is a point of overs-I have him at 5.0.If the rains come it won't bother him as he's effective on both wet and dry.

Advised Bet: Mubaraza 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 6.0 on offer now

Anything else today and updates sent via Twitter during racing providing I'm holding up ok

 

Sandown & Warwick Farm Today

Sandown posts a Dead 5 and there seems no rain around looking at the radar so it may upgrade-monitor.Warwick Farm is a Dead 5 and there are some very small rain cells on the radar and a possibility of more later so monitor there as well.

I haven't backed anything early yet but I am interested in two or three but all have a negative or two attached so I'm waiting to see how these tracks race early before committing.

Regular updates and any Bets/Lays sent via Twitter during the afternoon.

There will be another blog update later covering the UK racing where the three day Chester Cup meeting gets underway.

Weekly Round Up

Happy to report a profitable week.Here are the figures:-

Australia

All bets this week sent via Twitter. Bets in 15 races- 4 winners

Stakes    19.45 units
Profit       6.03  units

UK & International

Bets in the blog 2 races-No winners

Stakes    1.70
Loss       1.70 units

Bets sent via Twitter.Bets in 2 races-1 winner

Stakes    1.95
Profit      4.35 units 

Overall Profit for the week   8.68 units
Overall Profit for the year    33.06 units


Miss France's victory in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday was the first winner of the UK season for me.There haven't been many bets yet but the previous 4 hadn't managed a place so a winner was very welcome.
I'll be around today for the Mornington meeting covered via twitter and the blog will be back tomorrow with a look at Wednesday's Melbourne and Sydney racing and later a look at day one of Chester's Cup meeting

Newmarket Guineas Meeting-Day Two

1000 Guineas day and the going is Good to Firm,Good in places. It was genuine Good ground yesterday but it's forecast dry today and expect it to race faster than yesterday.
Salisbury is Soft,Good to Soft in places and drying out and Hamilton is Good to Soft,Soft in places and more rain is forecast.

The 1000 Guineas looks quite open and it's 6.0 plus the field currently on Betfair.I may back the french filly Miss France but am not committed at this stage.
Decent card as you would expect although it falls way a bit later in the day. The supporting cards at Salisbury and Hamilton are interesting enough particularly Hamilton.

Just the one early bet today:

Newmarket

Race 1
Cafe Society returns having been gelded.He was a model of consistency last year but was a very unlucky horse on more than one occasion.Potentially he could turn out to be the best of these but he's in here today well down the bottom half of the handicap.He's a get back run on type so hopefully Salutations who front runs will put on a decent pace upfront. 6.0 with bookies and a tad better currently on Betfair.

Advised Bet: Cafe Society 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.4 on Betfair now for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance

Further Bets/Lays and Updates via twitter during the racing

Newmarket Guineas Meeting-Day One

2000 Guineas day and the ground at Newmarket is Good to Firm,Good in places.It's forecast dry and bright all day so expect fast ground.Goodwood today is Good to Soft (drying out all the time) and Thirsk is Good,Good to Firm in places (dry conditions so may be Good to Firm all over by racetime).

I'm in a strong position in the Guineas having traded Kingman in after backing him after he ran away with the Greenham and have a decent collect if he wins and a modest but OK profit if he's turned over. I thought natural attrition would see him a fair bit shorter than current quotes but around 2.25 looks about right now..He's clearly the most likely but I'm not quite as confident as I was earlier.

I've found the spluttering start to the turf flat season most frustrating and I'm relieved that things are now most definitely up and running.

I'm not really into backing at short quotes this early in the season so I'm basically looking for realistic winning hopes at figures that I'm comfortable staking to.  Only one definite bet today and it falls outside my usual parameters and is based on "gut feeling"rather than figures.

Newmarket

Race 3
There's a very unexposed quality stayer here. He has to improve around a stone on figures to win this and he might want a bit further now.There's pace a plenty here so hopefully he'll get a chance to show he's much better than the figures suggest.

Advised Bet: Brass Ring 0.70 units at 7.50 or better-monitor on Betfair

Any further Bets/Lays and updates sent via twitter

Caulfield & Hawksbury Today

Caulfield is a Dead 5 with rain due there during the afternoon.The rail is out 12m and if rain comes in any quantity then expect them to be scouting wider and wider as the day goes on.Extreme caution advised there until a definite pattern is established.
Hawksbury has it's big day and a good meeting it is too.Dead 4 and bits of rain around so monitor.
Peter Snowdens last day as trainer for Darley and the Darley horses are usually very much to the fore at this meeting so give them maximum respect today.
No early bets due to weather uncertainty but there are a few of interest today particularly in races 1,3,4 and 8 at Hawkesbury and races 3 and 8 at Caulfield.

Blackbookers engaged today are :-

Morphettville

R 2     Innocent Hero
R 6     The Quarterback
R 8     Bring Something

Caulfield

R 2    Tooleybuck Kid
R 3    River Delta
          Jessy Belle
R 8    Synthetic
          Khutulun

Hawksbury

R 3   Harmonic
R 5   Chatam House

Bets/Lays and updates via Twitter 

April Round Up

More bets last month and a very modest profit overall. Here's the breakdown :-

Australia

Bets in the blog  1 bet-1 winner

Stakes   0.85
Profit 5.53 units

Bets sent via twitter   Bets in 32 races- 6 winners

Stakes  35.40
Loss       0.74 units

Australia Total for April  Profit  4.79 units


UK

Bets in the blog-1 bet- no wins

Stake    1.35
Loss      1.35 units

UK loss for April  1.35 units

Overall total for April  3.44 units Profit

A couple of winners today via twitter has the new month off to a positive start and there is plenty of really excellent racing coming up in the UK this month.Off season racing in Victoria and Sydney but there will still be opportunities and the Brisbane carnival gets going properly from this weekend.
Very quiet so far in the UK but that will change very soon