This blog started in October last year and had a fantastic run through the Victorian Spring Carnival finding the winners of the three "big ones" Caulfield and Melbourne Cups and Cox Plate.Plenty of other winners as well at some very juicy odds.Since February however each month has been a losing one and to date 2013 has been very costly and frustrating.I wasn't advising staking during the first 3 months but if you were playing around level stakes (not something I would ever advise) you'd have been between 40/50 units up but since I started the staking plan the losses have been around 30 units (29.83).
Complicating everything for me this year have been some serious heart problems which have had me in hospital three times.Trying to play the horses professionally when you have these kinds of personal dramas going on is a real challenge and realistically it's inevitably that you are going to be a bit less focused than usual.The advise I have from my heart specialist or Cardiologist as they like to be called here in Australia is that gambling for a living is far too stressful and involves me working far too many hours each week and I should cease doing it straight away.Further advice was a course of anti-depressants to help me come to terms with every thing and gently readjust to a calmer less stressful existence.
The medication made me feel like my mind had silted up and after trying two different types they are well and truly off the shopping list.Giving up the punt would leave me without an income and my main interest in life.In short I'd rather go down swinging than drift along in a state of medicated ennui until the inevitable finally arrived.
I did consider canning this blog but a few people have emailed me asking where I've been and will I still be posting so I've decided to continue.
Until September I will only be focusing on Victorian racing here in Australia and that will very much take a back seat to the UK racing.From September until early November I'll look at both in equal measure and I'll be taking December off.
The schedule for the blog with tips attached will be Victorian racing -Lunchtime blog Wednesday through to Sunday,UK racing early evening blog most days (Sundays only when worthwhile).
I've had a very shabby start to 2013 but hopefully it can begin to turn around sooner rather than later.
With today's meeting at Sandown washed out there is no blog covering the Australian racing today but I'll post one this evening for Derby day at Epsom
Friday 31 May 2013
Oaks Day At Epsom
Medical appointments have destroyed my schedule this week.I had hoped to be back in full swing by this weekend (today) but hopefully I can get back to some normality now.
I'll go into more detail tomorrow about what I hope to accomplish with the blog over the next few months but for today I'll keep it dead simple.
Moth should be favourite for the Oaks but she isn't-she should be 3.40 but is a general 4.50.She has solid classic form and will relish the trip
Advised bet
Epsom Oaks Moth 1.50 units Each Way at 3.70 or better-take the 4.50
Back in more detail tomorrow
I'll go into more detail tomorrow about what I hope to accomplish with the blog over the next few months but for today I'll keep it dead simple.
Moth should be favourite for the Oaks but she isn't-she should be 3.40 but is a general 4.50.She has solid classic form and will relish the trip
Advised bet
Epsom Oaks Moth 1.50 units Each Way at 3.70 or better-take the 4.50
Back in more detail tomorrow
Monday 27 May 2013
Update
A health relapse has shut me down over the last few weeks.There is no point in posting selections if I'm not playing myself and I haven't been.I missed a bit of racing whilst in hospital so I'm currently finishing off the video replays and up dating my ratings and will hopefully be back sooner rather than later-I'm aiming for this coming weekend
Sunday 5 May 2013
1000 Guineas Day
1000 Guineas day at Newmarket (Good To Firm) and two good supporting flat meeting at Hamilton (I'm working on Good To Soft) and Salisbury (Good To Firm).
Time constraints so I'll be brief.
Newmarket
Race 4
Hot Snap's Nell Gwyn win is form well up to winning an average 1000 Guineas.She seems sure to be capable of better particularly over today's mile.3.50 on offer against my rating of 2.50
Hamilton
Race 4
Smoothtalkinrascal was very unlucky at Sandown last time.Pace on here suits and suspect that the drying ground will favour him more than main market rival Annunciation.3.75 on Betfair looks very good value (generally 3.50) against my rating of 2.70
Advised Bets
Newmarket R 4 Hot Snap 2 units to win at 2.70 or better
Take the 3.50 on offer
Hamilton R 4 Smoothtalkinrascal 1.85 units to win at 2.90 or better
Shop on Betfair for value
Time constraints so I'll be brief.
Newmarket
Race 4
Hot Snap's Nell Gwyn win is form well up to winning an average 1000 Guineas.She seems sure to be capable of better particularly over today's mile.3.50 on offer against my rating of 2.50
Hamilton
Race 4
Smoothtalkinrascal was very unlucky at Sandown last time.Pace on here suits and suspect that the drying ground will favour him more than main market rival Annunciation.3.75 on Betfair looks very good value (generally 3.50) against my rating of 2.70
Advised Bets
Newmarket R 4 Hot Snap 2 units to win at 2.70 or better
Take the 3.50 on offer
Hamilton R 4 Smoothtalkinrascal 1.85 units to win at 2.90 or better
Shop on Betfair for value
Saturday 4 May 2013
2000 Guineas Day
2000 Guineas day at Newmarket with three other UK flat meetings too.Bits of rain on the radar but it looks like it's unlikely to affect the current going.Newmarket,Doncaster and Goodwood should be decent fast ground and Thirsk no worse than Good.Monitor the northern courses though as any rain that falls is likely to be there.
Plenty of horses made the short list today but at this stage I'm not sure to be backing anything so no advised bets.Poor draws,lack of pace,going concerns and no fat in the odds on offer means it looks like I'll be playing mainly on the lay side of the exchange today.
Despite it already being the Guineas meeting this flat season still seems very raw and patchy.It's pointless complaining about how the Winter all weather racing impacts on the start of the turf season as it's a fact of life but it certainly complicates things.
Plenty of time for things to develop yet today so I'll tweet any late mail
Plenty of horses made the short list today but at this stage I'm not sure to be backing anything so no advised bets.Poor draws,lack of pace,going concerns and no fat in the odds on offer means it looks like I'll be playing mainly on the lay side of the exchange today.
Despite it already being the Guineas meeting this flat season still seems very raw and patchy.It's pointless complaining about how the Winter all weather racing impacts on the start of the turf season as it's a fact of life but it certainly complicates things.
Plenty of time for things to develop yet today so I'll tweet any late mail
Friday 3 May 2013
Friday's Racing
Beat the market with Klishina at Bendigo today 7.0 into 3.50 but she ran way below the form she showed last prep so no joy there.
Flat racing in the UK at Musselburgh ( Good but chance of rain),Chepstow (Good To Firm and dry) and Lingfield All Weather (Standard).
Considering it's a Friday and a holiday weekend you'd have thought we would be served up something a bit better than what's on offer today.Today's cards are what you'd expect Monday or Tuesday.
There is nothing I'm certain about backing at this stage so no advised bets but I'll tweet any late mail.
Big weekend coming up!
Flat racing in the UK at Musselburgh ( Good but chance of rain),Chepstow (Good To Firm and dry) and Lingfield All Weather (Standard).
Considering it's a Friday and a holiday weekend you'd have thought we would be served up something a bit better than what's on offer today.Today's cards are what you'd expect Monday or Tuesday.
There is nothing I'm certain about backing at this stage so no advised bets but I'll tweet any late mail.
Big weekend coming up!
Thursday 2 May 2013
Bet today at Bendigo
One that I'm very keen on today at Bendigo where it's posted a Dead 4 but is fine so may upgrade.
Race 6
Anyone watching Klishina's debut and second up second to subsequent Guineas winner Ferlax would surely concur that she is way better than a 62 rater.I thought she might have beaten Ferlax had apprentice O.Ay not overdone the waiting tactics.Here she is resuming in a C1.
7.0 is available and I think that is big overs if she's on song resuming.My rating here is 3.50 and I've backed her accordingly.
Advised Bet
Bendigo Race 6 Klishina 1.40 units to win at 3.80 or better-take the 7.0 for 50%
and average in with the rest
Race 6
Anyone watching Klishina's debut and second up second to subsequent Guineas winner Ferlax would surely concur that she is way better than a 62 rater.I thought she might have beaten Ferlax had apprentice O.Ay not overdone the waiting tactics.Here she is resuming in a C1.
7.0 is available and I think that is big overs if she's on song resuming.My rating here is 3.50 and I've backed her accordingly.
Advised Bet
Bendigo Race 6 Klishina 1.40 units to win at 3.80 or better-take the 7.0 for 50%
and average in with the rest
Thursday's Racing
Three UK flat meetings today.Lingfield all weather and Redcar and Chepstow on turf.Expect fastish ground at both turf venues with dry conditions forecast.
The evening meeting at Chepstow is dreadful stuff and I'll be steering well clear of it.Redcar is a bit better but it looks a trappy card there.Lingfield holds most interest I think with a few runners who might show some talent but it's hard to feel confident about anything in advance.
No advised bets today but I will tweet any late mail I think of interest.
Managed to get through the Warrnambool Carnival in one piece-just.A couple of decent lays in the later races today just about squared up the book and had me very marginally ahead on the three days.
The evening meeting at Chepstow is dreadful stuff and I'll be steering well clear of it.Redcar is a bit better but it looks a trappy card there.Lingfield holds most interest I think with a few runners who might show some talent but it's hard to feel confident about anything in advance.
No advised bets today but I will tweet any late mail I think of interest.
Managed to get through the Warrnambool Carnival in one piece-just.A couple of decent lays in the later races today just about squared up the book and had me very marginally ahead on the three days.
Wednesday 1 May 2013
Ascot ,Pontefract and Kempton on Wednesday
With dry conditions looking likely at all three flat venues today it should be Good and drying at Ascot,likely all round Good to Firm at Pontefract and the obvious Standard at Kempton.
Plenty of interesting horses and races today but only one race that I can commit to betting on at this stage
Ascot
Race 6 4.45
Competitive twenty runner handicap to end the card.Favourite at around 4.0 is the Luca Cumani trained Rockalong who is progressive and an obvious live hope here.The other very progressive runner Twenty One Choice makes slightly more appeal to me and I think he actually should be favourite.His Kempton win four weeks ago was very strong and he continued there the progress that saw him win his last 3 races last season.From gate one he can be handy to what may be a modest pace so I envisage him being well positioned in the run here.He saw the mile out very strongly last year at Musselburgh and I expect going forward that the mile will prove his best trip.This good looking son of Choisir has plenty of scope to go on improving a fair bit yet.
Plenty of others with a squeak including Karaka Jack,Forest Row and Toga Tiger but with around 8.0 available in one place and 7.0 easy to get elsewhere I think Twenty One Choice is overs here.My ratings have him at 5.50
Advised bet Ascot Race 6 4.45pm Twenty One Choice 0.90 units to win
(take the 8.00 for 50% of stake and monitor the rest
Plenty of interesting horses and races today but only one race that I can commit to betting on at this stage
Ascot
Race 6 4.45
Competitive twenty runner handicap to end the card.Favourite at around 4.0 is the Luca Cumani trained Rockalong who is progressive and an obvious live hope here.The other very progressive runner Twenty One Choice makes slightly more appeal to me and I think he actually should be favourite.His Kempton win four weeks ago was very strong and he continued there the progress that saw him win his last 3 races last season.From gate one he can be handy to what may be a modest pace so I envisage him being well positioned in the run here.He saw the mile out very strongly last year at Musselburgh and I expect going forward that the mile will prove his best trip.This good looking son of Choisir has plenty of scope to go on improving a fair bit yet.
Plenty of others with a squeak including Karaka Jack,Forest Row and Toga Tiger but with around 8.0 available in one place and 7.0 easy to get elsewhere I think Twenty One Choice is overs here.My ratings have him at 5.50
Advised bet Ascot Race 6 4.45pm Twenty One Choice 0.90 units to win
(take the 8.00 for 50% of stake and monitor the rest
April Figures
Not many bets for the blog in April with health issues having me out of action for the majority of the time.
Bit stiff in the first few days of the month when Tronador (advised at 25.0) was just nosed out in a close finish,amazingly he got out to 40.0 the win 10.0 the place with Sportsbet at one stage before being backed into 12.0 around the off.Guelph retrieved some losses on Saturday but the net result for April was a loss of 3.025 units.The last three months have been downright poor so lets hope the new UK flat season can turn things around
Bit stiff in the first few days of the month when Tronador (advised at 25.0) was just nosed out in a close finish,amazingly he got out to 40.0 the win 10.0 the place with Sportsbet at one stage before being backed into 12.0 around the off.Guelph retrieved some losses on Saturday but the net result for April was a loss of 3.025 units.The last three months have been downright poor so lets hope the new UK flat season can turn things around
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)