August started OK then went sour for a couple of weeks but finished off well. A roller coaster month but a decent one in the end. Here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 13 races - 4 winners
Stakes 14.55
Profit 15.05 units
Bets advised via Twitter- Bets in 27 races - 5 winners
Stakes 37.15
Loss 4.75 units
Australia total for month PROFIT 10.30 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 7 races - 1 winner
Stakes 7.60
Loss 1.30 units
Bets advised via Twitter- Bets in 9 races - 3 winners
Stakes 11.65
Profit 5.98 units
UK & Int. total for month PROFIT 4.68 units
Overall total for the month PROFIT 14.98 units
We are two thirds through the year now with the next 10 weeks the busiest of the year. So far the collective figures for the year to date (blogs and tweets combined) are Stakes 355.30 PROFIT 57.94 which is a POT of 16.30%. If I marked the prices of the winners the way a lot of ratings agencies do the winnings would be greatly inflated. I try to record the price that is fair determined by the time the bet was advised and what is available then and the instructions sent with the bet.
It's around two years now since I started the blog and during that time I have had a lot of emails asking if I would start up a private service. I had planned to begin it this month with a ceiling cap of 30 members. I didn't expect to get the full quota of 30 initially but I did need around 15 to make it a worthwhile venture.So far I have had expressions of interest from 12 people and that doesn't mean all 12 will take the plunge and come on board so there simply isn't enough interest to make it worthwhile proceeding at this stage.
The figures throughout the couple of years since I started this blog have been excellent and anyone following on a regular basis could have no complaints but it is time consuming to produce and I'm undecided at the moment whether to continue or not.
Sunday 31 August 2014
Saturday 30 August 2014
Saturday's UK Racing
Not the most exiting Saturday's racing of the season and decidedly tricky.
No early bets and whilst there may be bets later nothing greatly appeals at this stage.
If there is anything later I'll send it via Twitter.
Sorry the blog has been light today but there's nothing I can write about with any confidence at this point.
No early bets and whilst there may be bets later nothing greatly appeals at this stage.
If there is anything later I'll send it via Twitter.
Sorry the blog has been light today but there's nothing I can write about with any confidence at this point.
Friday 29 August 2014
Caulfield & Rosehill Today-G1 Racing returns
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's dry. Memsie Stakes day there so good to see the first G1 of the new season.
Rosehill is a Heavy 8 and there are still light showers around but I don't think the track is any worse than the early morning assessment.
I haven't got involved in anything yet today but there are a few I'm interested in.
It's not an easy day and there seems no good reason to go off early about anything.
So a very light post today and all bets and updates sent via Twitter this afternoon.
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Those of you who have already contacted me about the private service should have received an email back from me acknowledging your interest. I will send payment details out at the end of this month and the service will have it's first operational day on Wednesday 4th September
Rosehill is a Heavy 8 and there are still light showers around but I don't think the track is any worse than the early morning assessment.
I haven't got involved in anything yet today but there are a few I'm interested in.
It's not an easy day and there seems no good reason to go off early about anything.
So a very light post today and all bets and updates sent via Twitter this afternoon.
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Those of you who have already contacted me about the private service should have received an email back from me acknowledging your interest. I will send payment details out at the end of this month and the service will have it's first operational day on Wednesday 4th September
Tuesday 26 August 2014
Sandown & Warwick Farm Today
Broke my front tooth last night so at the dentist this morning and everything late as a result. Missed some very tasty prices as a result.
I've already tweeted through a few early bets although I probably wish I hadn't as some are now longer.
Sandown is a Dead 4 upgraded from a Dead 5 and it's dry so another upgrade is possible as the day goes on.
Warwick Farm is a Heavy 10 and there is rain around so I suppose it's touch and go them getting through the meeting.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
If the meeting is still on by now then I think Eklands and Was Meant To Be are both overs at current quotes. I missed the best Eklands but 6.0 is still value against my rating of 5.0. Was Meant To Be has run well twice in city races recently and was particularly good of a wide run last time. He goes well in the wet and has a solid hope here-12.0 is overs
Advised Bet: Eklands 1 unit at 5.20 or better, 6.0 is still available and I think that will go
Was Meant To Be 0.60 units at 9.0 or better-some 12.0 available
Sandown
Race 5
This is very open but down at the bottom Forgeress is good value at a top priced 17.0 (was 26.0) earlier. Her best effort this prep (all runs have been good) was a strong finishing third at Caulfield on Dead surface in a better race than this. She acts on the wet but suspect she's a bit better on drier.
Advised Bet: Forgeress 0.45 units at 12.0 or better- take the 17.0
Race 6
I thought there were three strong hopes here in Belesron, Spencer Street and Vee Force . I have Belesron clearly on top though despite the other two having strong claims.Vee Force showed real talent early when with Simon Morrish but has obviously had problems and has landed with D. Weir down at the Wangoon stable. His first run for Weir was a real eyecatcher but he has looked mega promising before only to flop. Spencer Street probably still has a bit more to offer-he ran very well last time and the claim will help him today. Belesron was good here behind Olivier and then demolished the opposition last time. He has a 3kg claim too and of the 3 I thinks he's the most likely
Advised Bet: Belesron 1.35 units at 3.90 or better-already advised to take 5.0 but is now 6.50 with Bet 365 so maybe they know something that I don't!!
Race 7
Very open Mares race. Pindan Pearl has an obvious chance but too short at 3.50 I think. Lily Dazzler is going well and has been steady improver but her best form is on wet.Then acluster of half a dozen with claims including Abaleen who ran well last time and is suited by the extra 200m and gets a handy 3kg claim. Why this is such a big price escapes me but having advised it ew at 101.00 I'm a bit surprised to see it now at 126.0 with Bet365.It's massive overs
Advised Bet: Abaleen 0.20 units win and 0.30 units place at 17.0 or better. Was 101.00/23.00 at the time I tweeted with 365. Is now 126.00/26.0
All these will be logged as best advised in the blog but at the prices I sent through earlier.
Pretty sure there will be more today and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
I've already tweeted through a few early bets although I probably wish I hadn't as some are now longer.
Sandown is a Dead 4 upgraded from a Dead 5 and it's dry so another upgrade is possible as the day goes on.
Warwick Farm is a Heavy 10 and there is rain around so I suppose it's touch and go them getting through the meeting.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
If the meeting is still on by now then I think Eklands and Was Meant To Be are both overs at current quotes. I missed the best Eklands but 6.0 is still value against my rating of 5.0. Was Meant To Be has run well twice in city races recently and was particularly good of a wide run last time. He goes well in the wet and has a solid hope here-12.0 is overs
Advised Bet: Eklands 1 unit at 5.20 or better, 6.0 is still available and I think that will go
Was Meant To Be 0.60 units at 9.0 or better-some 12.0 available
Sandown
Race 5
This is very open but down at the bottom Forgeress is good value at a top priced 17.0 (was 26.0) earlier. Her best effort this prep (all runs have been good) was a strong finishing third at Caulfield on Dead surface in a better race than this. She acts on the wet but suspect she's a bit better on drier.
Advised Bet: Forgeress 0.45 units at 12.0 or better- take the 17.0
Race 6
I thought there were three strong hopes here in Belesron, Spencer Street and Vee Force . I have Belesron clearly on top though despite the other two having strong claims.Vee Force showed real talent early when with Simon Morrish but has obviously had problems and has landed with D. Weir down at the Wangoon stable. His first run for Weir was a real eyecatcher but he has looked mega promising before only to flop. Spencer Street probably still has a bit more to offer-he ran very well last time and the claim will help him today. Belesron was good here behind Olivier and then demolished the opposition last time. He has a 3kg claim too and of the 3 I thinks he's the most likely
Advised Bet: Belesron 1.35 units at 3.90 or better-already advised to take 5.0 but is now 6.50 with Bet 365 so maybe they know something that I don't!!
Race 7
Very open Mares race. Pindan Pearl has an obvious chance but too short at 3.50 I think. Lily Dazzler is going well and has been steady improver but her best form is on wet.Then acluster of half a dozen with claims including Abaleen who ran well last time and is suited by the extra 200m and gets a handy 3kg claim. Why this is such a big price escapes me but having advised it ew at 101.00 I'm a bit surprised to see it now at 126.0 with Bet365.It's massive overs
Advised Bet: Abaleen 0.20 units win and 0.30 units place at 17.0 or better. Was 101.00/23.00 at the time I tweeted with 365. Is now 126.00/26.0
All these will be logged as best advised in the blog but at the prices I sent through earlier.
Pretty sure there will be more today and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Sunday 24 August 2014
Weekly Round Up
Back in the black again last week. Here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 2.30
Profit 4.93 units
Bets advised via Twitter - 8 races - 1 winner
Stakes 11.65
Loss 3.40 units
Australia total for the week Profit 1.53 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - 3 races- 1 winner
Stakes 4.05
Profit 2.25 units
Bets advised via Twitter - 4 races - 2 winners
Stakes 6.25
Profit 4.98 units
UK total for the week Profit 7.23 units
Overall total for the week PROFIT 8.76 units
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Those of you who have already contacted me about the private service should have received an email back from me acknowledging your interest. I will send payment details out at the end of this month and the service will have it's first operational day on Wednesday 4th September
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 2.30
Profit 4.93 units
Bets advised via Twitter - 8 races - 1 winner
Stakes 11.65
Loss 3.40 units
Australia total for the week Profit 1.53 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - 3 races- 1 winner
Stakes 4.05
Profit 2.25 units
Bets advised via Twitter - 4 races - 2 winners
Stakes 6.25
Profit 4.98 units
UK total for the week Profit 7.23 units
Overall total for the week PROFIT 8.76 units
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Those of you who have already contacted me about the private service should have received an email back from me acknowledging your interest. I will send payment details out at the end of this month and the service will have it's first operational day on Wednesday 4th September
Saturday 23 August 2014
York Ebor Festival - Day Four
The going at York is Good, Good to Firm in places. Dry day ahead initially then some showers mid afternoon. expect the ground to be generally Good to Firm by the time racing starts and after that it'll depend if and when the rain comes and how heavy it is.
There is plenty happening today so the blog has to be brief as I'm pushed for time.
Race 4 Ebor Handicap
My record in this race overall is poor. It's been a difficult race to be confident about in recent years and my general inclination would be to give it a miss but I was so impressed by Pallasator last time that despite him having to overcome the widest draw and being burdened with being favourite I think at around 5.0 there is still some value in him. He's the best horse here and he still got more to offer.
I have him at 3.80 so have no problem playing at 5.0. I did get some 5.50 but they won't let me on for much these days.
Advised Bet: Pallasator 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.0 now for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
There will be more today and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
There is plenty happening today so the blog has to be brief as I'm pushed for time.
Race 4 Ebor Handicap
My record in this race overall is poor. It's been a difficult race to be confident about in recent years and my general inclination would be to give it a miss but I was so impressed by Pallasator last time that despite him having to overcome the widest draw and being burdened with being favourite I think at around 5.0 there is still some value in him. He's the best horse here and he still got more to offer.
I have him at 3.80 so have no problem playing at 5.0. I did get some 5.50 but they won't let me on for much these days.
Advised Bet: Pallasator 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.0 now for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
There will be more today and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Friday 22 August 2014
Moonee Valley & Randwick Today
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and it's dry and fine so an upgrade is expected.
Randwick is a Heavy 9 after more rain this morning.Radar is hard to read as it looks like the weather has moved off shore but the forecast is for more. Pretty wet anyway.
There will almost certainly be more but at the moment just the two early bets today:
Randwick
Race 2
Surpass loves the wet and has a very handy claimer taking of 3 kg's. I know the fancy odds have gone but it's still value at 8.50 best offer. I have it at 6.0. I held off doing the form for Randwick because of the weather and the likelihood of multiple scratchings. Consequently tipping you in to this one is old news I suppose.
Advised Bet: Surpass 0.85 units at 6.50 or better- it may not shorten much further but can't see it getting out much either-monitor but 8.50 is STILL GOOD VALUE!
Race 6
Same story here again I'm afraid.Missed the cream but still value .Weary should be a better proposition this prep and is a proven wet horse.He'll posi right behind the speed here and have first run on his higher rated stablemates all of whom will be aiming for higher prizes in recent weeks.
Advised Bet: Weary 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.0 now
Further bets/updates sent via Twitter
Randwick is a Heavy 9 after more rain this morning.Radar is hard to read as it looks like the weather has moved off shore but the forecast is for more. Pretty wet anyway.
There will almost certainly be more but at the moment just the two early bets today:
Randwick
Race 2
Surpass loves the wet and has a very handy claimer taking of 3 kg's. I know the fancy odds have gone but it's still value at 8.50 best offer. I have it at 6.0. I held off doing the form for Randwick because of the weather and the likelihood of multiple scratchings. Consequently tipping you in to this one is old news I suppose.
Advised Bet: Surpass 0.85 units at 6.50 or better- it may not shorten much further but can't see it getting out much either-monitor but 8.50 is STILL GOOD VALUE!
Race 6
Same story here again I'm afraid.Missed the cream but still value .Weary should be a better proposition this prep and is a proven wet horse.He'll posi right behind the speed here and have first run on his higher rated stablemates all of whom will be aiming for higher prizes in recent weeks.
Advised Bet: Weary 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.0 now
Further bets/updates sent via Twitter
York Ebor Festival -- Day Three
After some overnight rain the going at York is Good. A dry day is forecast and I expect it'll be racing around the Good to Firm rating pretty quickly into the afternoon.
Race 2
Cavalryman has rediscovered his zest for racing this year. All his runs this year have been good and all are above the usual standard required to win this G2 contest. Estimate has to bounce back from a poor effort last time and if she returns to her best then she will be very hard to beat although she may be ideally suited by a longer trip. The Weld trained Pale Mimosa has to find a bit but she remains unexposed. I was eyeing her up as a potential Melbourne Cup chance but I can't see her amongst the entries. Not committed here yet.
Race 4
I've been driven nuts by Shea Shea he's cost me so much money but if he puts his best foot forward and his jockey doesn't screw up his chance (twice in G1's the rides have been atrocious) he can definitely win. There's isn't much between him and Sole Power on a head to head basis but maybe Sole Power has improved past him a little this year. I've got these two wrong every time I've got involved with them but I do think they are the two most likely here. There are a few capable of improving namely Take Cover, Hot Streak,Cougar Mountain and another money muncher G Force.
Probably doing something here but not committed yet.
Bets/Updates sent by Twitter during racing
Race 2
Cavalryman has rediscovered his zest for racing this year. All his runs this year have been good and all are above the usual standard required to win this G2 contest. Estimate has to bounce back from a poor effort last time and if she returns to her best then she will be very hard to beat although she may be ideally suited by a longer trip. The Weld trained Pale Mimosa has to find a bit but she remains unexposed. I was eyeing her up as a potential Melbourne Cup chance but I can't see her amongst the entries. Not committed here yet.
Race 4
I've been driven nuts by Shea Shea he's cost me so much money but if he puts his best foot forward and his jockey doesn't screw up his chance (twice in G1's the rides have been atrocious) he can definitely win. There's isn't much between him and Sole Power on a head to head basis but maybe Sole Power has improved past him a little this year. I've got these two wrong every time I've got involved with them but I do think they are the two most likely here. There are a few capable of improving namely Take Cover, Hot Streak,Cougar Mountain and another money muncher G Force.
Probably doing something here but not committed yet.
Bets/Updates sent by Twitter during racing
Thursday 21 August 2014
York Ebor Festival - Day Two
Light rain overnight amounted to very little and the going at York is Good to Firm, Good in places. The weather forecast suggest any rain will come after racing so expect fast Summer ground.
Race 1
Team Hannon have an exemplary record in these valuable "Sales " races and Kool Kompany is the one to beat here despite the 7lb penalty. On figures Fast Act should have just as good if not a better chance getting 7lb but he's a real risk over this extra furlong and I strongly favour Kool Kompany.
Valley Of fire looked potentially more than useful when winning here on debut and I think he's a very live hope here. May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 2
I don't have many bets in 2-y-old races hence my dithering over the previous race but I have no reservations at all here. This is very good race with three really promising fillies. I backed Anthem Alexander at Royal Ascot when she beat Tiggy Wiggy and I thought she had a bit more in hand than the narrow margin that day. Cursory Glance won well at Royal Ascot too and both her and Anthem Alexander have been off the track since then. Meanwhile Tiggy Wiggy has run away with a valueable "Sales" race at Newbury. That was a devastating performance backed up by the clock and way ahead of her Ascot effort. The slight doubt about her being quite as brilliant at 6 furlongs as at 5 is the only thing that stops me having her at odds on here. She should stay 6 furlongs OK but there is a possibility she will not be quite as good.
Advised Bet: Tiggy Wiggy 2.10 units at 2.55 or better-take the 2.90 on offer now
Other bets unlikely today but I'll update on Twitter during racing
Race 1
Team Hannon have an exemplary record in these valuable "Sales " races and Kool Kompany is the one to beat here despite the 7lb penalty. On figures Fast Act should have just as good if not a better chance getting 7lb but he's a real risk over this extra furlong and I strongly favour Kool Kompany.
Valley Of fire looked potentially more than useful when winning here on debut and I think he's a very live hope here. May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 2
I don't have many bets in 2-y-old races hence my dithering over the previous race but I have no reservations at all here. This is very good race with three really promising fillies. I backed Anthem Alexander at Royal Ascot when she beat Tiggy Wiggy and I thought she had a bit more in hand than the narrow margin that day. Cursory Glance won well at Royal Ascot too and both her and Anthem Alexander have been off the track since then. Meanwhile Tiggy Wiggy has run away with a valueable "Sales" race at Newbury. That was a devastating performance backed up by the clock and way ahead of her Ascot effort. The slight doubt about her being quite as brilliant at 6 furlongs as at 5 is the only thing that stops me having her at odds on here. She should stay 6 furlongs OK but there is a possibility she will not be quite as good.
Advised Bet: Tiggy Wiggy 2.10 units at 2.55 or better-take the 2.90 on offer now
Other bets unlikely today but I'll update on Twitter during racing
Wednesday 20 August 2014
York Ebor Festival --Day One
The going at York is Good, Good to Firm in places. Dry early and showers due mid afternoon. It may be closer to Good to Firm all over by the time racing begins and until the rain arrives.
Race 1
Fiercely competitive 5 furlong handicap and a very good race to kick the meeting off. This will be fast and furious but despite the certain hot pace it's an on pacer that I want to be with.This is a fast 5 furlongs and leaders take some reeling in here on fast ground. The 3-y-old locally trained See The Sun appeals here dropping back a furlong and drawn close to the stands rail. He won the hot 3-y-old sprint here in June and then ran a huge race against older horses last time. He stays 6 furlongs but the way he went last time suggests that 5 furlongs will suit better and at around 10.0 is worth a bet.
Advised Bet: See The Sun 0.65 units at 9.0 or better-I think this will be strong in the betting so I'm on already
That's the only early bet today but there may be more via Twitter during racing.
Race 1
Fiercely competitive 5 furlong handicap and a very good race to kick the meeting off. This will be fast and furious but despite the certain hot pace it's an on pacer that I want to be with.This is a fast 5 furlongs and leaders take some reeling in here on fast ground. The 3-y-old locally trained See The Sun appeals here dropping back a furlong and drawn close to the stands rail. He won the hot 3-y-old sprint here in June and then ran a huge race against older horses last time. He stays 6 furlongs but the way he went last time suggests that 5 furlongs will suit better and at around 10.0 is worth a bet.
Advised Bet: See The Sun 0.65 units at 9.0 or better-I think this will be strong in the betting so I'm on already
That's the only early bet today but there may be more via Twitter during racing.
Tuesday 19 August 2014
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Sandown is a Good 3 and it's fine so expect fast ground there today.
Canterbury is a Heavy 8 up from an earlier 9. Expect it to improve a bit more as the day goes on.
The Canterbury card makes little appeal at this stage as it's generally been dry in Sydney in recent weeks and now they are racing on a genuinely wet surface. There may be something there pending patterns/conditions but at this stage it looks unlikely.
Sandown
Race 1
Heronia is very well in here racing off a mark of 66. She won her maiden comfortably and then took on Listed grade going down narrowly and unluckily to the 87 rated Buddy Bundy at level weights .3 lengths behind that day was the 74 rated Pistolier who went on to win next time. Reading that form literally suggests Heronea is justified being rated in the high 80's. That last effort was on slow ground though. He is up against some tough established handicappers here and this quick 1000m can find an inexperienced horse out especially one that get's back a bit. Has C.Williams steering though so that's a definite positive. He was around 2.30 earlier and is now on the drift. Not committed at this stage.
Race 2
Stitch Me Up was terrific winning here last time and looked a horse of real promise that day. I don't how strong that race will turn out to be but he's the only one I could consider backing here. These early season 3-y-old events can be very tricky and I generally avoid them like the plague. May make an exception and get involved here but he's shortened a bit and is very marginal at current odds.
Race 5
The race that Contact won here last time wasn't a very strong event. Outback Ranger been the only real opposition and he's been beaten in weaker grade since. That said his win was dominant and the 3kg claim gets him on a slightly lower weight today. House Of Stars ran well in Saturday grade last time and she'll be fully fit now and is a real hope here. La Belle Mome is the other possibility after a sound win at Bendigo last time-fair bit harder here though. May play here-depending on odds
Race 6
Critical Angel could be a bit too classy for these. Her run in the Vanity where she split Solicit and Girl In Flight is outstanding form for this and she get's in on a mark of 68. She's got the potential to pick up a Stakes race this Spring but it's a long Spring and 1400m first up may find her out fitness wise. The alternative clearly is Paddy's Gem who has run good seconds both starts this prep. 1400m a query though. Probably passing here.
Race 7
Imaging pulled like train last time but still bolted up.Faster ground and further are positives for him he'll need to settle better here as this is tougher. Mahican was good resuming at Geelong showing a fine turn of foot to win.He's a promising horse but the gate is a worry here and he'll probably go back.Tristram's Sun is suited back in trip and hopefully they are positive from the gate with him as there isn't much obvious pace here. I think they are the three most likely here with Oltr Finito and Cross Of Gold other hopes. Not committed here at this stage but probably doing something.
Race 8
The Giddyup Kirky bubble burst last time but in fairness he got to far back to have any hope of being competitive. Now And Zen has a better gate today than last time and looks the form pick to me although he had the length of the straight to pass Tycoon Rob last time and either couldn't or wouldn't. Nordic Duke was well backed last time but flopped.Oliver takes over from the claimer this time. If I back anything here it'll be Now and Zen but not committed at this stage.
Bets? Updates
Canterbury is a Heavy 8 up from an earlier 9. Expect it to improve a bit more as the day goes on.
The Canterbury card makes little appeal at this stage as it's generally been dry in Sydney in recent weeks and now they are racing on a genuinely wet surface. There may be something there pending patterns/conditions but at this stage it looks unlikely.
Sandown
Race 1
Heronia is very well in here racing off a mark of 66. She won her maiden comfortably and then took on Listed grade going down narrowly and unluckily to the 87 rated Buddy Bundy at level weights .3 lengths behind that day was the 74 rated Pistolier who went on to win next time. Reading that form literally suggests Heronea is justified being rated in the high 80's. That last effort was on slow ground though. He is up against some tough established handicappers here and this quick 1000m can find an inexperienced horse out especially one that get's back a bit. Has C.Williams steering though so that's a definite positive. He was around 2.30 earlier and is now on the drift. Not committed at this stage.
Race 2
Stitch Me Up was terrific winning here last time and looked a horse of real promise that day. I don't how strong that race will turn out to be but he's the only one I could consider backing here. These early season 3-y-old events can be very tricky and I generally avoid them like the plague. May make an exception and get involved here but he's shortened a bit and is very marginal at current odds.
Race 5
The race that Contact won here last time wasn't a very strong event. Outback Ranger been the only real opposition and he's been beaten in weaker grade since. That said his win was dominant and the 3kg claim gets him on a slightly lower weight today. House Of Stars ran well in Saturday grade last time and she'll be fully fit now and is a real hope here. La Belle Mome is the other possibility after a sound win at Bendigo last time-fair bit harder here though. May play here-depending on odds
Race 6
Critical Angel could be a bit too classy for these. Her run in the Vanity where she split Solicit and Girl In Flight is outstanding form for this and she get's in on a mark of 68. She's got the potential to pick up a Stakes race this Spring but it's a long Spring and 1400m first up may find her out fitness wise. The alternative clearly is Paddy's Gem who has run good seconds both starts this prep. 1400m a query though. Probably passing here.
Race 7
Imaging pulled like train last time but still bolted up.Faster ground and further are positives for him he'll need to settle better here as this is tougher. Mahican was good resuming at Geelong showing a fine turn of foot to win.He's a promising horse but the gate is a worry here and he'll probably go back.Tristram's Sun is suited back in trip and hopefully they are positive from the gate with him as there isn't much obvious pace here. I think they are the three most likely here with Oltr Finito and Cross Of Gold other hopes. Not committed here at this stage but probably doing something.
Race 8
The Giddyup Kirky bubble burst last time but in fairness he got to far back to have any hope of being competitive. Now And Zen has a better gate today than last time and looks the form pick to me although he had the length of the straight to pass Tycoon Rob last time and either couldn't or wouldn't. Nordic Duke was well backed last time but flopped.Oliver takes over from the claimer this time. If I back anything here it'll be Now and Zen but not committed at this stage.
Bets? Updates
Monday 18 August 2014
Last Week's Round Up
A pretty quiet week but a poor one nevertheless. Here are the figures :-
Australia
No bets in the blog
Bets sent via Twitter- bets in 7 races - 1 winner
Stakes 10.65
Loss 4.45 units
UK
No bets in the blog
Bets sent via Twitter - bets in 2 races- 0 winners
Stakes 1.95
Loss 1.95 units
Overall for the week LOSS 6.40 units
The four day York Ebor festival starts tomorrow so hopefully there might be a few winners found there this week.
Australia
No bets in the blog
Bets sent via Twitter- bets in 7 races - 1 winner
Stakes 10.65
Loss 4.45 units
UK
No bets in the blog
Bets sent via Twitter - bets in 2 races- 0 winners
Stakes 1.95
Loss 1.95 units
Overall for the week LOSS 6.40 units
The four day York Ebor festival starts tomorrow so hopefully there might be a few winners found there this week.
Friday 15 August 2014
Caulfield & Rosehill Today - August Newsletter # 12
Caulfield is a Dead 4 and it's dry so it may upgrade.
Rosehill is a Dead 4 and there is rain on the way. How much the track gets is hard to predict but there is a chance that there will be enough to take it down to slow later in the day. Crucial to monitor conditions.
Nothing appeals at early prices at Caulfield but some of these markets will open up a bit so I expect I'll be doing something there later on.
Rosehill is totally weather dependent and going off early is a complete waste of time. I'm generally not that keen in getting involved on deteriorating tracks so I may end up giving it a miss.There may be a couple there later but not sure at this stage.
Very light mail today but will be sending bets/updates via Twitter through the afternoon
Rosehill is a Dead 4 and there is rain on the way. How much the track gets is hard to predict but there is a chance that there will be enough to take it down to slow later in the day. Crucial to monitor conditions.
Nothing appeals at early prices at Caulfield but some of these markets will open up a bit so I expect I'll be doing something there later on.
Rosehill is totally weather dependent and going off early is a complete waste of time. I'm generally not that keen in getting involved on deteriorating tracks so I may end up giving it a miss.There may be a couple there later but not sure at this stage.
Very light mail today but will be sending bets/updates via Twitter through the afternoon
Wednesday 13 August 2014
Betfair Australia sold to Crown-- August Newsletter # 11
James Packer's Crown has taken control of Betfair Australia increasing it's stake from 50% to 100% at a price of A$10 million.
The deal has huge implications for the Australian betting market and punters. The deal effectively values Betfair Australia at A$20 million.
Betfair Australia has been struggling with the turnover model adopted by racing authorities and it's venture into the Australian betting landscape hasn't been profitable for them. Nevertheless, Packer has picked up the business for a song. Ultimately things may never work out for the Betfair exchange in Australia but at the price paid it's a drop in the ocean for Crown if it goes nowhere compared to the huge potential and profits if they can make it fly.
Crown have been excellent at getting politicians and administrators onside and seeing the benefits of doing things their way.
Expect change-lots of it and don't be surprised if previous animus suddenly turns to mutual self interest after lots of arm twisting and carrot dangling.
William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet 365 have done"their brains" so far in the Aussie market but Packer has picked up the potential "game changer" for loose change.
The deal has huge implications for the Australian betting market and punters. The deal effectively values Betfair Australia at A$20 million.
Betfair Australia has been struggling with the turnover model adopted by racing authorities and it's venture into the Australian betting landscape hasn't been profitable for them. Nevertheless, Packer has picked up the business for a song. Ultimately things may never work out for the Betfair exchange in Australia but at the price paid it's a drop in the ocean for Crown if it goes nowhere compared to the huge potential and profits if they can make it fly.
Crown have been excellent at getting politicians and administrators onside and seeing the benefits of doing things their way.
Expect change-lots of it and don't be surprised if previous animus suddenly turns to mutual self interest after lots of arm twisting and carrot dangling.
William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet 365 have done"their brains" so far in the Aussie market but Packer has picked up the potential "game changer" for loose change.
Tuesday 12 August 2014
Bendigo & Kensington Today - August Newsletter # 10
Bendigo is a Dead 5 and it's dry and fresh there so it may get an upgrade at some point.
The Kenso track is posted a Slow 7. It's sunny and dry there so again it may upgrade.
The Kensington meeting makes little appeal early and I doubt that will change unless there is a dramatic market change somewhere.
Bendigo is a very competitive card and the later races are good midweek events
Bendigo
Race 5
Soosa Rama won her first 3 starts and the last of those wins was a very solid effort before failing off this mark over further.She's had an OK trial but it's no surprise they have chosen to put a claimer on her.Get's the weigh down to 58.5kg's. All her wins were on fast ground and her dam was a dead set dry tracker so any moisture in the ground would have me wary of backing her today. There are none here that I could emphatically say can't win but there may be some value here depending on how the track is playing. Possibly a small bet at odds later.
Race 6
Longeron is favourite in some books here but I can't see why.He's a hope but he'll need to lift a fair bit on his two efforts so far this prep. Devonshire Duke and Appoint both ran really well at the Valley last time and they are on top on my ratings here. Both are on pacers with low draws and near the fence is probably going to be inferior ground here today. I may do something around these two here but want to have a look at how this track is playing first. You can often get of the rail here without to much trouble on the turn. Possible play here later
Race 7
Early markets slightly favour Black Tomahawk over Rock Vantage and I agree but drying ground would help Rock Vantage so conditions need monitoring here. Again possible bet here later
Race 8
This is as strong a BM 70 as you are likely to see at midweek level. It should prove a very strong form reference for the future. Yesterday's Songs got a bit too far back last time and it was a very sound effort to finish third. He was coming off a 6 week absence there too so he should be spot on today. Oliver replaces Boss and he gets the one eyed blinker to try to correct the laying in tendency he showed last time. He's hard to beat but that laying in quirk puts me off a bit and at 2.20 he's too short.
Running Bull meets him on3kg's better terms today after young Tilley's claim.He was very good on pace at Caulfield and there is probably more to come from him. Tucanchoo is promising and has claims. Dubosc ran well after a two year absence but it will be a mighty effort to win here today.
Dillon Hall is improving and drying ground would help him.This is a lot harder than the race he won on the synthetic but there's definitely more to come from him. Mysonharry ran in G2 races last prep.
Not committed here at this stage but may do something here later
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
The Kenso track is posted a Slow 7. It's sunny and dry there so again it may upgrade.
The Kensington meeting makes little appeal early and I doubt that will change unless there is a dramatic market change somewhere.
Bendigo is a very competitive card and the later races are good midweek events
Bendigo
Race 5
Soosa Rama won her first 3 starts and the last of those wins was a very solid effort before failing off this mark over further.She's had an OK trial but it's no surprise they have chosen to put a claimer on her.Get's the weigh down to 58.5kg's. All her wins were on fast ground and her dam was a dead set dry tracker so any moisture in the ground would have me wary of backing her today. There are none here that I could emphatically say can't win but there may be some value here depending on how the track is playing. Possibly a small bet at odds later.
Race 6
Longeron is favourite in some books here but I can't see why.He's a hope but he'll need to lift a fair bit on his two efforts so far this prep. Devonshire Duke and Appoint both ran really well at the Valley last time and they are on top on my ratings here. Both are on pacers with low draws and near the fence is probably going to be inferior ground here today. I may do something around these two here but want to have a look at how this track is playing first. You can often get of the rail here without to much trouble on the turn. Possible play here later
Race 7
Early markets slightly favour Black Tomahawk over Rock Vantage and I agree but drying ground would help Rock Vantage so conditions need monitoring here. Again possible bet here later
Race 8
This is as strong a BM 70 as you are likely to see at midweek level. It should prove a very strong form reference for the future. Yesterday's Songs got a bit too far back last time and it was a very sound effort to finish third. He was coming off a 6 week absence there too so he should be spot on today. Oliver replaces Boss and he gets the one eyed blinker to try to correct the laying in tendency he showed last time. He's hard to beat but that laying in quirk puts me off a bit and at 2.20 he's too short.
Running Bull meets him on3kg's better terms today after young Tilley's claim.He was very good on pace at Caulfield and there is probably more to come from him. Tucanchoo is promising and has claims. Dubosc ran well after a two year absence but it will be a mighty effort to win here today.
Dillon Hall is improving and drying ground would help him.This is a lot harder than the race he won on the synthetic but there's definitely more to come from him. Mysonharry ran in G2 races last prep.
Not committed here at this stage but may do something here later
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Sunday 10 August 2014
Weekly Round Up -- August Newsletter # 9
Frustrating weekend and a losing week. Nothing fell into place on Saturday afternoon. I had five horses all very marginal around the 3.30-3.50 range and passed on three and played on two. The bet ones were beaten and the left ones all won. Allied with Raposo's unlucky run early in the afternoon it all contributed to an afternoon of real frustration. It all evens itself out over time of course and I did manage to hit back with a modest profit on Saturday's UK racing.
Here's last weeks results:-
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog- 1 race -0 wins
Stakes 1.25 units
Loss 1.25 units
Bets advised via twitter- bets in 3 races -1 winner
Stakes 3.45
Profit 2.05 units
UK & Int. total for the week 0.80 units Profit
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- bets advised in 6 races-1 winner
Stakes 7.05
Loss 1.13 units
Bets advised via twitter- bets in 2 races-0 winners
Stakes 3.20
Loss 3.20 units
Australia for the week 4.33 units Loss
Overall for the week LOSS 3.53 units
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Here's last weeks results:-
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog- 1 race -0 wins
Stakes 1.25 units
Loss 1.25 units
Bets advised via twitter- bets in 3 races -1 winner
Stakes 3.45
Profit 2.05 units
UK & Int. total for the week 0.80 units Profit
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- bets advised in 6 races-1 winner
Stakes 7.05
Loss 1.13 units
Bets advised via twitter- bets in 2 races-0 winners
Stakes 3.20
Loss 3.20 units
Australia for the week 4.33 units Loss
Overall for the week LOSS 3.53 units
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
G1 Racing at Deauville - August Newsletter # 8
G1 action at Deauville with the Prix Maurice De Gheest over 6 and a half furlongs.
15 runners and plenty of hopes but a favourite in Gregorian who's a bit longer in the market than I think he should be.He's very well suited by wet ground and thats what he'll get today with the track very testing. He ran a great race in the July Cup caught on the opposite side of the track to the winner Slade power and the runner up and despite being hampered and held up ran on strongly to take third.
The extra half furlong here combined with the heavy track should see him around the money. He's currently 5.0 with UK bookies and is around 6.50 on the PMU (French Tote). I have him at 4.0 so I think he a value bet at those odds and he'll probably trade higher on Betfair at some stage but not close to post time.
Advised Bet: Deauville R 3 Gregorian 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
15 runners and plenty of hopes but a favourite in Gregorian who's a bit longer in the market than I think he should be.He's very well suited by wet ground and thats what he'll get today with the track very testing. He ran a great race in the July Cup caught on the opposite side of the track to the winner Slade power and the runner up and despite being hampered and held up ran on strongly to take third.
The extra half furlong here combined with the heavy track should see him around the money. He's currently 5.0 with UK bookies and is around 6.50 on the PMU (French Tote). I have him at 4.0 so I think he a value bet at those odds and he'll probably trade higher on Betfair at some stage but not close to post time.
Advised Bet: Deauville R 3 Gregorian 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
Saturday 9 August 2014
Saturday's UK Racing - August Newsletter # 7
Heavy rain overnight has made it difficult to nominate early bets. There are certain to be a steady drip of non runners throughout the early part of the day so better to wait until things have settled down.
The annual Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot is very difficult with reserves and jockeys coming from different countries riding horses they are unfamiliar with.
It's not a great day's racing to be honest and there are limited opportunities but there may be two or three depending on final fields and markets.
Short and brief today but at this stage it's an unclear picture.
Bets/Updates sent via twitter
The annual Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot is very difficult with reserves and jockeys coming from different countries riding horses they are unfamiliar with.
It's not a great day's racing to be honest and there are limited opportunities but there may be two or three depending on final fields and markets.
Short and brief today but at this stage it's an unclear picture.
Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Friday 8 August 2014
Flemington & Randwick Today - August Newsletter # 6
Flemington is a Good 3 and any rain is not expected until the evening so expect fast conditions.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and there is a bit of patchy rain around on the satellite. There is a chance of an upgrade later-monitor.
Some of the better horses making their way back today and the quality will begin to pick up week by week from now on.
Randwick
I want to see how this track is playing here today before committing. The two I definitely am interested in are quite tight to my figures at the moment so I'm not going in until I'm happy with the prevailing conditions.There may be no bias today but based on how Randwick has performed over the last few months bias is more likely than not-we'll see.
Flemington
Race 2
I'm keen on Eclair Samba here but I'm hoping he'll get out a tad in betting at some point. 2.80 is the best offer around at the moment and I have him at 2.60. There is value there but there may be better to come.
Advised Bet: Eclair Samba 1.90 units at 2.80 or better -have 25% of the stake at 2.80 and monitor with the balance but don't wait too long -3.0 is good if it gets there.
Race 4
I don't normally get involved with these early season 3-y-old races but Raposo is way overs here. I doubt he was suited racing in restricted room on the fence here last time. He gave Imaging a thumping on debut and that horse bolted up on Wednesday.There are a few possibilities here as there usually are in these ultra competitive 3-y-old races but this should be any bigger than 6.0 here.
Advised Bet: Raposo 0.80 units at 6.50 or better-take 9.0 on offer
Race 5
Cleverdude did look good winning on his first start for D.Weir but that wasn't anything like as strong as this and I think he's too short now-concede he's a real chance if he can go on with it but he has had problems and second up is a risk especially at 3.50. The value runners are - Cross Of Gold who has improved this prep admittedly on the synthetic but he looked a horse of promise and he's worth chancing at odds and, Theatreman another promising type who bolted up on his comeback run.
Advised Bets: Cross of Gold 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer
Theatreman 0.65 units at 9.0 or better-monitor betting-is 12.0 for bits on Betfair
There will almost certainly be more today and Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and there is a bit of patchy rain around on the satellite. There is a chance of an upgrade later-monitor.
Some of the better horses making their way back today and the quality will begin to pick up week by week from now on.
Randwick
I want to see how this track is playing here today before committing. The two I definitely am interested in are quite tight to my figures at the moment so I'm not going in until I'm happy with the prevailing conditions.There may be no bias today but based on how Randwick has performed over the last few months bias is more likely than not-we'll see.
Flemington
Race 2
I'm keen on Eclair Samba here but I'm hoping he'll get out a tad in betting at some point. 2.80 is the best offer around at the moment and I have him at 2.60. There is value there but there may be better to come.
Advised Bet: Eclair Samba 1.90 units at 2.80 or better -have 25% of the stake at 2.80 and monitor with the balance but don't wait too long -3.0 is good if it gets there.
Race 4
I don't normally get involved with these early season 3-y-old races but Raposo is way overs here. I doubt he was suited racing in restricted room on the fence here last time. He gave Imaging a thumping on debut and that horse bolted up on Wednesday.There are a few possibilities here as there usually are in these ultra competitive 3-y-old races but this should be any bigger than 6.0 here.
Advised Bet: Raposo 0.80 units at 6.50 or better-take 9.0 on offer
Race 5
Cleverdude did look good winning on his first start for D.Weir but that wasn't anything like as strong as this and I think he's too short now-concede he's a real chance if he can go on with it but he has had problems and second up is a risk especially at 3.50. The value runners are - Cross Of Gold who has improved this prep admittedly on the synthetic but he looked a horse of promise and he's worth chancing at odds and, Theatreman another promising type who bolted up on his comeback run.
Advised Bets: Cross of Gold 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer
Theatreman 0.65 units at 9.0 or better-monitor betting-is 12.0 for bits on Betfair
There will almost certainly be more today and Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Tuesday 5 August 2014
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Sandown posts a dead 5 but note the jumps track there is a Slow 7. If the Dead 5 early is a sound reading there is a strong chance of an upgrade to a Dead 4. It's just a question of how much faith you can have in the initial reading.Monitor early races. Maybe some rain there very late afternoon.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and a dry fine day there so decent fast ground.
Sandown
Race 5
Gagnanm Style was really dominant in the wet at Bendigo but this is an altogether different proposition.I think he's promising and he maybe able to step straight up to this grade but he's only second choice here behind Orujo. My main concern with Orujo is that track dries out a bit-the more it dries the more I'll warm to him. His form lines are outstanding for this and mark of 67 looks very lenient when you consider that he gave 2kg's to London Lolly and went down by 1.25 lengths. That horse then beat Go Indy Go in a G3 at Morphettville.Behind London Lolly and Orujo was Bring Me The Maid who beat Peggy Jean next time in a G2 at Rosehill.
Advised Bet: Orujo 1.50 units at 3.40 or better-have 40% of the stake at the current 4.20 and monitor track conditions (see above) and betting before committing the balance.Will up date strategy on Twitter
Maybe a bet in other races particularly R 8 but markets will have to move a fair bit from where they are now ( not at all unlikely)
Canterbury
Race 6
This is strong midweek fillies and mares event and it should prove a solid form reference. Three runners particularly look well ahead of their current marks. Echo Gal the only filly-she's had 4 starts- her debut win was emphatic at 1.65-twice she's had cardiac issues-and the other run was when posted wide in the Magic Millions. She's a Saturday grade filly at least but the heart issues are a worry-trial was good. Windrunner has been flogging inferior types and gets in here off a mark of 65.Again a Saturday surely and probably should be nearer 75 than 65. Fiftyshadesofgrey is improving fast-she's been bombing the start but didn't last time and bolted up by 3 lengths-she jumps up 5 points for that but it ought to be 10 at least.She'll be charging late and there should be good speed here.She's 11.0 here with 365 if you can get on otherwise 10.0. I have her at 8.0 so she worth a play-maybe more here.
Advised Bet: Fiftyshadesofgrey 0.65 at 9.0 or better -take the 11.0 if you can get it
Race 7
Mahatma,Loophole and Letchworth all have form that ties in. Cleansing Ale tries an extended trip as he can't win at shorter off his current mark. The value is Ambivalent who I have as joint favourite here at 5.0 with Mahatma. She's consistent goes well around here and gets a very handy 3kg claim. A bit of the pace has come out of this race with the scratchings which is a bit of a worry but from a good gate hopefully she doesn't get too far back early.
Advised Bet; Ambivalent 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 6.50 on offer now (if you can get it) for half of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Canterbury is a Good 3 and a dry fine day there so decent fast ground.
Sandown
Race 5
Gagnanm Style was really dominant in the wet at Bendigo but this is an altogether different proposition.I think he's promising and he maybe able to step straight up to this grade but he's only second choice here behind Orujo. My main concern with Orujo is that track dries out a bit-the more it dries the more I'll warm to him. His form lines are outstanding for this and mark of 67 looks very lenient when you consider that he gave 2kg's to London Lolly and went down by 1.25 lengths. That horse then beat Go Indy Go in a G3 at Morphettville.Behind London Lolly and Orujo was Bring Me The Maid who beat Peggy Jean next time in a G2 at Rosehill.
Advised Bet: Orujo 1.50 units at 3.40 or better-have 40% of the stake at the current 4.20 and monitor track conditions (see above) and betting before committing the balance.Will up date strategy on Twitter
Maybe a bet in other races particularly R 8 but markets will have to move a fair bit from where they are now ( not at all unlikely)
Canterbury
Race 6
This is strong midweek fillies and mares event and it should prove a solid form reference. Three runners particularly look well ahead of their current marks. Echo Gal the only filly-she's had 4 starts- her debut win was emphatic at 1.65-twice she's had cardiac issues-and the other run was when posted wide in the Magic Millions. She's a Saturday grade filly at least but the heart issues are a worry-trial was good. Windrunner has been flogging inferior types and gets in here off a mark of 65.Again a Saturday surely and probably should be nearer 75 than 65. Fiftyshadesofgrey is improving fast-she's been bombing the start but didn't last time and bolted up by 3 lengths-she jumps up 5 points for that but it ought to be 10 at least.She'll be charging late and there should be good speed here.She's 11.0 here with 365 if you can get on otherwise 10.0. I have her at 8.0 so she worth a play-maybe more here.
Advised Bet: Fiftyshadesofgrey 0.65 at 9.0 or better -take the 11.0 if you can get it
Race 7
Mahatma,Loophole and Letchworth all have form that ties in. Cleansing Ale tries an extended trip as he can't win at shorter off his current mark. The value is Ambivalent who I have as joint favourite here at 5.0 with Mahatma. She's consistent goes well around here and gets a very handy 3kg claim. A bit of the pace has come out of this race with the scratchings which is a bit of a worry but from a good gate hopefully she doesn't get too far back early.
Advised Bet; Ambivalent 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 6.50 on offer now (if you can get it) for half of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Sunday 3 August 2014
July Figures, Weekend Round Up & Looking Forward - August newsletter # 4
The big Goodwood meeting was good racing but it was a real struggle to find horses I wanted to back and there were only 8 bets at the whole meeting and most of them at bigger prices-no winners either so disappointing.
July was up and down but ended up a decent month. Here are the figures:-
UK
Bets advised in the blog- Bets advised in 6 races- 1 winner
Stakes 8.10
Loss 2.65 units
Bets advised by Twitter- Bets advised in 12 races- 5 winners
Stakes 15.70
Profit 12.09 units
UK for July Profit 9.44 units
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets advised in 16 races- 2 winners
Stakes 21.55
Loss 7.58 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets advised in 33 races - 10 winners
Stakes 44.60
Profit 17.77 units
Australia for July Profit 10.19 units
Overall for the month 19.63 units PROFIT
One winner (good overlay) and 5 losers so far in August for a profit of 3.35 units
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Next newsletter will be on Wednesday
July was up and down but ended up a decent month. Here are the figures:-
UK
Bets advised in the blog- Bets advised in 6 races- 1 winner
Stakes 8.10
Loss 2.65 units
Bets advised by Twitter- Bets advised in 12 races- 5 winners
Stakes 15.70
Profit 12.09 units
UK for July Profit 9.44 units
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets advised in 16 races- 2 winners
Stakes 21.55
Loss 7.58 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets advised in 33 races - 10 winners
Stakes 44.60
Profit 17.77 units
Australia for July Profit 10.19 units
Overall for the month 19.63 units PROFIT
One winner (good overlay) and 5 losers so far in August for a profit of 3.35 units
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Next newsletter will be on Wednesday
Saturday 2 August 2014
August Newsletter #3 Update
Woken up to find no rain at Goodwood and subsequently Muthmir absolutely smashed in betting-very frustrating to miss the cream but playing nevertheless
Advised bet
Goodwood R4 Muthmir 1.10 units at 4.70 or better-5.50 still available
Anything else today via Twitter
Advised bet
Goodwood R4 Muthmir 1.10 units at 4.70 or better-5.50 still available
Anything else today via Twitter
Goodwood Day Five, Newmarket & Doncaster - August Newsletter # 3
Thanks for the emails pointing out that the last couple of posts are carrying July Newsletter numbering even though we are now in August. I don't like editing the posts once I've put them up but I will update the dating issue.
Summer storms threaten all meetings today and that makes early calls about anything pointless. There are definite possibilities but if the rain gets in I'll be scrambling to readjust my ratings. I haven't backed anything yet obviously and am now about to grab a few hours sleep before racing gets under way.
If the situation is clearer around 1pm UK time I'll update the newsletter otherwise Bets/Updates will be sent via twitter
Summer storms threaten all meetings today and that makes early calls about anything pointless. There are definite possibilities but if the rain gets in I'll be scrambling to readjust my ratings. I haven't backed anything yet obviously and am now about to grab a few hours sleep before racing gets under way.
If the situation is clearer around 1pm UK time I'll update the newsletter otherwise Bets/Updates will be sent via twitter
Friday 1 August 2014
Moonee Valley & Rosehill Today - August newsletter # 2
Moonee Valley is Dead 5 to a Slow 6.The Slow 6 is from the 700 to the 200.Showers possible.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and it's a dry day.
Lacklustre Saturday racing today and not many races that I want to get involved in.
There are a few possibilities as markets open up but only one horse I'm committed to backing at the moment.
Rosehill
Race 8
Moral Victory is improving this prep. He'll either lead or be handy and the 3kg claim is a big plus as he's a no nonsense ride. His main rivals will be spotting him a start and he's in the form of his life and will be hard to run down.
Advised bet: Moral Victory 1.30 units at 4.0 or better -monitor odds may get better than the current 4.80 but likely to be a tad shorter by post time.
Other bets today depend on markets and patterns and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Rosehill is a Good 3 and it's a dry day.
Lacklustre Saturday racing today and not many races that I want to get involved in.
There are a few possibilities as markets open up but only one horse I'm committed to backing at the moment.
Rosehill
Race 8
Moral Victory is improving this prep. He'll either lead or be handy and the 3kg claim is a big plus as he's a no nonsense ride. His main rivals will be spotting him a start and he's in the form of his life and will be hard to run down.
Advised bet: Moral Victory 1.30 units at 4.0 or better -monitor odds may get better than the current 4.80 but likely to be a tad shorter by post time.
Other bets today depend on markets and patterns and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Goodwood Day Four - August Newsletter # 1
Goodwood Day Four and a dry day expected and Good to Firm ground.
It's been good racing but betting wise a bit frustrating with very few bets including one unlucky second. There are only two early bets today and both are at decent odds in very tough races.
Race 1
Encke returns from an enforced prolonged break.He's the best horse if able to show his best but it's a big ask to come back and be at the top of your game after almost two years off. Perthers Moon has the best recent form but he's well found in the market at 2.70. Quest For Peace is back with Cumani after trying his hand in Australia.Cafe Society has to improve to win here but the best of him is yet to be seen. Songcraft is the other possibility. Tough race to be confident about.
Race2
Shifting Power's Guineas' efforts, fourth at Newmarket and second at The Curragh represent the best form.He ran a bit below that form last time in France but he's back from G1 to G3 here so he's clearly the horse to beat. Bow Creek was very good under top weight in the Brittannia and he's a clear second pick for me. I'm not keen on this race betting wise as there are a few that are capable of improving past the two obvious ones here.Pass
Race 3
Very open handicap and any number of hopes. Nevertheless I'm keen to be with Magic City after an eye catching return to form when second at Salisbury last time. He won at this meeting last year and then followed up again here 3 weeks later winning easily off the mark he races off today. He got home well over a mile last time and is a clear top pick for me in a difficult race.
Advised Bet: Magic City: 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-is 11.5 on Betfair-monitor there
Race 4
They will fly here. I want to be on something coming from off the pace here. Things haven't panned out well for G Force since his dominant win at the York Spring meeting.There are valid excuses for both subsequent defeats although this is a higher grade.I'm sure he's a high class sprinter so I'm giving him another try today. There are many hopes here though.
Advised Bet: G Force 0.65 units at 8.50 or better-is 10.5 on Betfair-monitor there
Race 5
Nursery-Pass
Race 6
Muteela will be hard to catch especially if she gets left alone in front but the market reflects that and 3.25 is a bit skinny. I have no confidence in this race at all and will not be playing here.
Race 7
Tough open handicap and I can't find any angle into this race at all-Pass
It's been good racing but betting wise a bit frustrating with very few bets including one unlucky second. There are only two early bets today and both are at decent odds in very tough races.
Race 1
Encke returns from an enforced prolonged break.He's the best horse if able to show his best but it's a big ask to come back and be at the top of your game after almost two years off. Perthers Moon has the best recent form but he's well found in the market at 2.70. Quest For Peace is back with Cumani after trying his hand in Australia.Cafe Society has to improve to win here but the best of him is yet to be seen. Songcraft is the other possibility. Tough race to be confident about.
Race2
Shifting Power's Guineas' efforts, fourth at Newmarket and second at The Curragh represent the best form.He ran a bit below that form last time in France but he's back from G1 to G3 here so he's clearly the horse to beat. Bow Creek was very good under top weight in the Brittannia and he's a clear second pick for me. I'm not keen on this race betting wise as there are a few that are capable of improving past the two obvious ones here.Pass
Race 3
Very open handicap and any number of hopes. Nevertheless I'm keen to be with Magic City after an eye catching return to form when second at Salisbury last time. He won at this meeting last year and then followed up again here 3 weeks later winning easily off the mark he races off today. He got home well over a mile last time and is a clear top pick for me in a difficult race.
Advised Bet: Magic City: 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-is 11.5 on Betfair-monitor there
Race 4
They will fly here. I want to be on something coming from off the pace here. Things haven't panned out well for G Force since his dominant win at the York Spring meeting.There are valid excuses for both subsequent defeats although this is a higher grade.I'm sure he's a high class sprinter so I'm giving him another try today. There are many hopes here though.
Advised Bet: G Force 0.65 units at 8.50 or better-is 10.5 on Betfair-monitor there
Race 5
Nursery-Pass
Race 6
Muteela will be hard to catch especially if she gets left alone in front but the market reflects that and 3.25 is a bit skinny. I have no confidence in this race at all and will not be playing here.
Race 7
Tough open handicap and I can't find any angle into this race at all-Pass
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