Both Sandown and Warwick Farm post Good 3. Currently dry at both venues but there is a possibility of rain later in the day at Warwick Farm.
A very average midweek offering today and I can't really enthuse about anything. I have no opinions worth passing on for Warwick Farm but there are some observations regarding Sandown.
Sandown
Race 2
Northern Lyric might get a soft lead here but the current 2.10 is poison odds. The race he won at Cranbourne last time was very on pace dominated and he's now 13 points higher than when he won his first race this prep back in October. This race is far more open that current markets suggest.
Race 6
Don't Plead Guilty looked good winning his maiden on debut back in September. He's a horse with the potential to do better but 3.80 looks skinny. He couldn't get the job done off this mark in -64 grade at Sale and Cranbourne last prep so you'd think a midweek -64 would be a bit more challenging. In reality there's not much difference standard wise from midweek to provincial grade these days as these midweekers continue to decline quality wise.
Diamondcowboy is an 8 year old having start 63 here. A change of stables seems to have re-juvinated him and he's won both starts this year, one at the picnics and a -58 grade event at Benalla. That latter win was a demolition job and on a line through the consistent runner up Chosen Son this horse is right back to his best. There no obvious pace is this race and he's a get back, charge home type so you couldn't be confident but he's the only horse I'm thinking of backing today. The claim for Bayliss may be a bonus too.
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