Happy New Year!
Flemington is a Dead 4 and some rain this morning and more sweeping in from the west.I'm not at all keen betting on deteriorating tracks and that's a possibilty looking at the forecast and the radar.Randwick is a Dead 4 but seems sure to upgrade.
Flemington
I have no strong opinions in races 1 and 2.In race 3 I'm taking on Kaiser Sun at anything under 4.30.He got a soft time in the middle of the race last time and will have more pressure today with Fab Fevola upfront with him.He's gone up 9 points for the last win which is quite severe I think.have laid it for bits this am around 3.50.
Race 4 is interesting with He's Your Man making his Australian debut.He's got very useful staying form in Europe not top class but a rating of 90 is a very lenient starting point.Couldn't back him at 4.0 though over this much shorter trip but can't dismiss him either.Anlon is going well but 2.80 is short enough.The New Boy is very hard to catch but he'll likely get a dolly lead here.Others have hopes too.
Race 5.Unchain My Heart has obviously been set for this but I don't think the rain will help her.She get's back too which I never like in these long races unless I'm sure they are going to run along.3.50 is plenty short enough and if the rain sets in I'll probably take her on.Crafty Cruiser and Thubiaan look the overs but both are hard to catch.Looks a trappy race to me.
Race 6 is very hard.Apart from the toppy Ethiopia and Cascabel nothing else would really surprise here.
Race 7 I've layed Index Linked here at around 3.50 for bit's already.I'm happy to oppose him under 4.0.Electric Fusion looks mighty hard to beat and if it were still a genuine Dead 4 come post time I could back him around 2.40.
Race 8 The claim makes Longeron a worthy fav. here but 3.0 is plenty tight enough although I don't think I want to take him on at that price.Edgewood has ability but starts badly and he's 3kg's worse off with Longeron from last time allowing for young Maroney's claim.Probably doing nothing here.
Randwick
Nothing there at the moment but there may be a Tweet or two as the afternoon develops
Tuesday 31 December 2013
Monday 30 December 2013
2013 Round Up,Reflections and Looking Forward
This is the last post this year so I'll look back at how it's gone.
Overall I've ended up just about where I started the year financially so I've neither gone forwards or backwards.I've managed a living out of what I'm doing and whilst it's not an opulent one it's not a shabby one either and many people would envy me being able to work from home punting and surviving on it.Anyone who thinks it's a glamorous lifestyle now needs to think again though.My day's start very early in Summer (5.30am) and ends very late in Winter (3.30am) and overall I reckon I put in around 70 hours plus each week.Despite that I wouldn't change it and I think I'm lucky that I've been able to work at something that is both challenging and rewarding at the same time.
It's not a "respectable" living in the conventional sense but then I'm a working class boy from West Yorkshire who left school at 15 and took his chances when and where they came along often irrespective of how and who it upset along the way.I never was respectable and never ever wanted or really could be but I think eventually I've earned some respect for "running my own race" over the years.
The most challenging thing of all is working from home alone.I miss the racecourse and all the characters you found there and the knockabout and sometimes dark humour that could lift your spirits even after a shocking day.Now it's impossible to operate there as you are at such a big disadvantage compared to having everything at your fingertips in your home office.When you had to go racing to have an edge there really was some glamour attatched to doing this work and I never turned up once looking anything but immaculate.Suited and Booted in the finest.Now I'm in shorts and short sleeves most of the time.I do live in the tropics these days so suits aren't really an option anymore.
I wonder if it'll ever change back to being an advantage to be on track again?God, I hope so.I'd be back in a flash!It'll never be quite the same again of course,things never are but it would be good to see the racing authorities realize that betting is the life blood of racing and without it happening big time on course,vibrant and full on, the sport or is it an industry?(don't get me started!) will simply fade away.Why are these corporate minded administrative clowns so blind to the long term damage they are doing and have already done to a once great staple of the Australian sporting and social landscape.They have been ably supported by generally piss poor state Racing Ministers who see only the looming ballot and where they'll land afterwards if they get the boot.Self interest is endemic to the human condition but surely there is someone out there with vision, passion and who has enough "respectability" and vigour to wrest the reins away from these hapless jobsworths and at least begin to steer the game back in the right direction.
The early part of the year I had some serious health issues which left me with almost nothing to show from January to May but I've recovered since then and in the circumstances I have to be satisfied with the year overall.I'm in my mid fifties now and am probably not quite as razor sharp as I used to be and am vulnerable to health issues complicating things from time to time.The big asset I do have after being involved in this caper virtually all my working life is experience.
You cannot buy experience and it's lots of hard work,pain, and disappointment (also some very big high points!) acquiring it but, it's a priceless thing to have at your disposal especially when the going gets tough as it inevitably does in this game sometimes.
The bets advised in the blog and through the tweets show a profit of 8.75% POT since I got things going again in June and it would have been great if October could be forgotten but it can't and it was truly awful and made a complete mess of some very healthy looking figures beforehand.
I'm going to make some changes to the way I do the blog in the New Year as it hasn't really been accurately reflecting what I'm doing the majority of the time which is laying as opposed to backing and that's a trend that seems likely to keep growing.
I'll play around with some new ideas in the blog in the first couple of weeks in the New Year and then I'm taking a weeks holiday mid January.When I get back I'll refine things a bit more and hopefully by February I'll have it out at least 5 days a week with a fair bit more in depth info in there than has been the case lately.
The main purpose of the blog is to inform,advise and hopefully help followers get an extra dollar or two from time to time.
As this year ends I would like to thank those who have emailed with various stuff over the year particularly the kind ones I received when I was unwell earlier in the year.I know the following has dropped of as I don't cover the UK stuff after October but it has been great to hear from people worldwide throughout the year.
I mentioned in Part Two of Laying for Profit the value of not being afraid to buy your info if you can source it from a really reputable agencies and your too time poor to do the hard work yourself.I mentioned two in Australia,Champion Picks and Redbelly Sports but wanted to add one more for the International followers who are not subject to the ludricous "in-play" restrictions that limit activity on sports events if you operate out of Australia.
Betfair Guru operates out of the North West of England.Kevin (the Guru) specialises in Tennis,Soccer and he does well on the UK Flat Racing too.He's essentially a Trader but his strategies are ultra sound and he operates online in real time.Works really hard and consequently gets the results..Very generous with his time and full of help and advice.Well worth looking into if your based in Europe.
All these three agencies I respect because I know that the work ethic is the cornerstone of their operations and importantly they are an open hand at putting out priceless free information to help anyone looking to do better on the punt.David & Darryn at Champion Picks send out a free newsletter 5 days a week packed with really interesting stuff if your a punter.Ed at Redbelly has a weekly newsletter with tips for form evaluation,strategy etc and does a twice weekly slot on Perth's racing radio.These guys are open handed about telling you what they have learnt in moving from ordinary punters into long term successful operators.Priceless knowledge and freely imparted and a total credit to the racing game.
Others I really want to highlight for being genuine sources of interesting and valuable info that have made my racing year better and helped know and understand more are:
Scott Furguson who is the author of http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/ a terrific place to go if you really want to know what's happening in the betting world.When the shit hits the fan be it collapsing Punters Clubs,match fixing,shonky bookies,scammers and shonks abroad Scott will have the latest and most accurate take on what's really going on.
Peter Webb of Bet Angel Pro. Doyen of Betfair traders and also the author of an excellent blog which is informative and instructive http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/
Racing UK not faultless but the best racing network around by a mile.Very knowledgeable presenters all round but a particular mention to the luscious Lydia Hislop the best female racing presenter anywhere,the weather worn Steve Mellish years of experience and always worth listening too,the erudite and provoking James Willoughby,almost too clever by half sometimes but a great communicator of how to analysize a race,Graham Cunningham ex Timeform and always thorough,Mark Howard, down to earth,to the point and a great judge around the northern racecourses,Tom O'Ryan,the "Yorkshire Leprechaun" ex jockey and a wonderfully affable and entertaining presenter and Claude Charlet who's opinions on French racing you dismiss at your peril.It's a very strong team with no real weak links but everyone has their favourites and they have kept me entertained and updated through the long,late winter nights when I'm betting on the UK racing.
To everyone all the very best for the New Year,thanks for following even if you only drop in occasionally.
The final part of Laying For Profit On Betfair will be online over the next few days.Back tomorrow with a look at the New Years Day's racing at Flemington and Rosehill.
Overall I've ended up just about where I started the year financially so I've neither gone forwards or backwards.I've managed a living out of what I'm doing and whilst it's not an opulent one it's not a shabby one either and many people would envy me being able to work from home punting and surviving on it.Anyone who thinks it's a glamorous lifestyle now needs to think again though.My day's start very early in Summer (5.30am) and ends very late in Winter (3.30am) and overall I reckon I put in around 70 hours plus each week.Despite that I wouldn't change it and I think I'm lucky that I've been able to work at something that is both challenging and rewarding at the same time.
It's not a "respectable" living in the conventional sense but then I'm a working class boy from West Yorkshire who left school at 15 and took his chances when and where they came along often irrespective of how and who it upset along the way.I never was respectable and never ever wanted or really could be but I think eventually I've earned some respect for "running my own race" over the years.
The most challenging thing of all is working from home alone.I miss the racecourse and all the characters you found there and the knockabout and sometimes dark humour that could lift your spirits even after a shocking day.Now it's impossible to operate there as you are at such a big disadvantage compared to having everything at your fingertips in your home office.When you had to go racing to have an edge there really was some glamour attatched to doing this work and I never turned up once looking anything but immaculate.Suited and Booted in the finest.Now I'm in shorts and short sleeves most of the time.I do live in the tropics these days so suits aren't really an option anymore.
I wonder if it'll ever change back to being an advantage to be on track again?God, I hope so.I'd be back in a flash!It'll never be quite the same again of course,things never are but it would be good to see the racing authorities realize that betting is the life blood of racing and without it happening big time on course,vibrant and full on, the sport or is it an industry?(don't get me started!) will simply fade away.Why are these corporate minded administrative clowns so blind to the long term damage they are doing and have already done to a once great staple of the Australian sporting and social landscape.They have been ably supported by generally piss poor state Racing Ministers who see only the looming ballot and where they'll land afterwards if they get the boot.Self interest is endemic to the human condition but surely there is someone out there with vision, passion and who has enough "respectability" and vigour to wrest the reins away from these hapless jobsworths and at least begin to steer the game back in the right direction.
The early part of the year I had some serious health issues which left me with almost nothing to show from January to May but I've recovered since then and in the circumstances I have to be satisfied with the year overall.I'm in my mid fifties now and am probably not quite as razor sharp as I used to be and am vulnerable to health issues complicating things from time to time.The big asset I do have after being involved in this caper virtually all my working life is experience.
You cannot buy experience and it's lots of hard work,pain, and disappointment (also some very big high points!) acquiring it but, it's a priceless thing to have at your disposal especially when the going gets tough as it inevitably does in this game sometimes.
The bets advised in the blog and through the tweets show a profit of 8.75% POT since I got things going again in June and it would have been great if October could be forgotten but it can't and it was truly awful and made a complete mess of some very healthy looking figures beforehand.
I'm going to make some changes to the way I do the blog in the New Year as it hasn't really been accurately reflecting what I'm doing the majority of the time which is laying as opposed to backing and that's a trend that seems likely to keep growing.
I'll play around with some new ideas in the blog in the first couple of weeks in the New Year and then I'm taking a weeks holiday mid January.When I get back I'll refine things a bit more and hopefully by February I'll have it out at least 5 days a week with a fair bit more in depth info in there than has been the case lately.
The main purpose of the blog is to inform,advise and hopefully help followers get an extra dollar or two from time to time.
As this year ends I would like to thank those who have emailed with various stuff over the year particularly the kind ones I received when I was unwell earlier in the year.I know the following has dropped of as I don't cover the UK stuff after October but it has been great to hear from people worldwide throughout the year.
I mentioned in Part Two of Laying for Profit the value of not being afraid to buy your info if you can source it from a really reputable agencies and your too time poor to do the hard work yourself.I mentioned two in Australia,Champion Picks and Redbelly Sports but wanted to add one more for the International followers who are not subject to the ludricous "in-play" restrictions that limit activity on sports events if you operate out of Australia.
Betfair Guru operates out of the North West of England.Kevin (the Guru) specialises in Tennis,Soccer and he does well on the UK Flat Racing too.He's essentially a Trader but his strategies are ultra sound and he operates online in real time.Works really hard and consequently gets the results..Very generous with his time and full of help and advice.Well worth looking into if your based in Europe.
All these three agencies I respect because I know that the work ethic is the cornerstone of their operations and importantly they are an open hand at putting out priceless free information to help anyone looking to do better on the punt.David & Darryn at Champion Picks send out a free newsletter 5 days a week packed with really interesting stuff if your a punter.Ed at Redbelly has a weekly newsletter with tips for form evaluation,strategy etc and does a twice weekly slot on Perth's racing radio.These guys are open handed about telling you what they have learnt in moving from ordinary punters into long term successful operators.Priceless knowledge and freely imparted and a total credit to the racing game.
Others I really want to highlight for being genuine sources of interesting and valuable info that have made my racing year better and helped know and understand more are:
Scott Furguson who is the author of http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/ a terrific place to go if you really want to know what's happening in the betting world.When the shit hits the fan be it collapsing Punters Clubs,match fixing,shonky bookies,scammers and shonks abroad Scott will have the latest and most accurate take on what's really going on.
Peter Webb of Bet Angel Pro. Doyen of Betfair traders and also the author of an excellent blog which is informative and instructive http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/
Racing UK not faultless but the best racing network around by a mile.Very knowledgeable presenters all round but a particular mention to the luscious Lydia Hislop the best female racing presenter anywhere,the weather worn Steve Mellish years of experience and always worth listening too,the erudite and provoking James Willoughby,almost too clever by half sometimes but a great communicator of how to analysize a race,Graham Cunningham ex Timeform and always thorough,Mark Howard, down to earth,to the point and a great judge around the northern racecourses,Tom O'Ryan,the "Yorkshire Leprechaun" ex jockey and a wonderfully affable and entertaining presenter and Claude Charlet who's opinions on French racing you dismiss at your peril.It's a very strong team with no real weak links but everyone has their favourites and they have kept me entertained and updated through the long,late winter nights when I'm betting on the UK racing.
To everyone all the very best for the New Year,thanks for following even if you only drop in occasionally.
The final part of Laying For Profit On Betfair will be online over the next few days.Back tomorrow with a look at the New Years Day's racing at Flemington and Rosehill.
Sunday 29 December 2013
Laying For Profit On Betfair-Part Two
Laying For Profit On Betfair-Part Two.
In Part One I suggested how anyone new to "laying" on Betfair might start out by taking on runners they thought should be at least double figure odds but that they could lay at odds of 8.0 or under.Then if that goes well after a hundred or so lays maybe start taking on runners that you know are live winning hopes but that are shorter odds than your analysis suggests they should be.
In Part Two I'm going to look at how using Trading Software can help you increase your margins. Before I do that I really want to reiterate a couple of cardinal rules that you must keep too if you want to give this a real chance of working for you.
Money Management
This the weakest link in most punters armoury.There are plenty of really sound and knowledgeable judges out there but unless you get totally disciplined around limiting your liabilities to a preset and consistent level the cruel hand of fate will bring you undone eventually.Even if you are the best analyst ever you still have to contend with variance and a host of factors that can conspire at times to make your analysis useless.Making money out of laying is a relentless grind.You have to be resigned to laying plenty of winners and accept it with a shrug if a host of them cluster together and you wipe out all the previous weeks profit in one poor afternoon.Providing you are keeping your liability fixed and consistent and hold your nerve through a rocky run you will gradually claw it back.You simply don't get rich quickly laying.It's five steps forward,four steps back most of the time.
How much of your initial bank you decide to risk each lay depends on how risk averse you are.I could never advise anyone to risk more than 5% per play and only then if you are laying runners over 6.0.If you start taking on favourites you should be risking 3% maximum.That's the percentage I've settled on and I stick to that being my maximum liability each lay.
Analysis and Tissue Prices
How you convert your form analysis into odds is no easy task.If you are used to doing it regularly then you will already know this.However,if you want to have a realistic idea of what is a fair price for any runner in a race then you have to have a clear and balanced idea of the respective odds of the runners in opposition.
If you really don't have the time to do the form thoroughly then use a respected and reliable ratings agency and base your strategy around their figures.Most people selling racing tips and info are shonks but there are some credible operators who have stood the test of time.In Australia the two I can attest to being excellent are Champion Picks based in Melbourne and who seem to mainly concentrate on racing there and Redbelly Sports based in Sydney.Ed Kennett who is the ratings guru at Redbelly used to fill the same role at Champion Picks until a few years ago.I don't agree with their assessments all of the time and sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong but it's a measure of the respect I have for their work that I always review their prices when they post them on their sites after racing.Win or lose they both post their results and over time they both are consistently profitable.
Kennett in particular has an unparallelled handle on NSW racing and is a truly world class operator.I have no professional or financial involvement with either so mine is a totally unbiased and objective opinion.There may be other agencies who are also good but these two publish all their results and I've monitored them for a long time.
In short you have to have a solid and reliable idea of what you think the market should look like before you start getting involved.Something may look very short at say 1.80 but unless you have an accurate handle on the opposition you are really just guessing.Guessing won't cut it so there is no easy solution it's either put the time in and do the hard yards yourself or pay for ratings that you can trust to get results over time.
Trading Software & Odds Comparison
Anyone attempting to use Betfair seriously must have trading software.If you don't have it you are at a big disadvantage and cannot do any of the trades that will help you maximise your profits.
The three most popular that I am aware of are Bet Angel Pro,Racing Traders Evolution and Geeks Toy.I think Bet Angel has the most features and applications particularly for sports trading and is the most expensive of the three.I've used Racing Traders Evolution for a while and I'm used to it and cannot see a good reason to change.I pay ten UK pounds a month (A$18) and it's fantastic value.It's doesn't matter which one you choose as all do the same job but even if you are only playing at the weekend you'll never want to be without it once you have got used to it.Be careful with it at the beginning or you'll get burn't.It's very simple and easy to use once you get used to it a bit like riding a bike but expect to be wobbly when you start.All have how to use guides and all is explained in them but do be cautious initially until you are sure of what you are doing.
If you are backing or laying you have to know what's being offered in any market.Dynamic Odds is a fantastic product that has all major bookies odds plus Betfair and the TAB's.It updates every few seconds so you can see at a glance what's being offered and by whom.Like the trading software once you are used to it you'll never want to be without it.It cost's $30 a month and is a must have if you are a serious player.
Trader Laying To Increase Profits
Betfair markets on Australian racing have very little liquidity early ( except for Saturdays and major race days) and really don't start to develop until around 10mins out from start time.The liquidity gradually increases but I would say that around 80% of the business in done in the last couple of minutes.During those last two minutes there often is very little differential between what's been offered on Betfair (after commission is taken in to account) and what's available amongst the bookies and the TAB's-this is particularly the case at the front end of the market.Getting your lay bet in early really is the only way to be ahead of the market.You have to move before the market does but you also cannot be sure that the market will always moved the way you believe it should.If you want to increase your profits from laying you need to use leverage to do you.Here's a simple example:
10 minutes out from the start the favourite is at evens (2.0).Your analysis suggests that it should be at least 2.50 and that 2.0 is big unders.You have a lay liability of $100 each time you play so you are happy to lay the favourite at evens for $100.You think the favourite will blow/drift so you have another $100 at evens hoping to offload this liability at a more realistic price as the market develops.Your initial assessment proves correct and the price moves out to 2.50 at which point you back it for $66.66.If the favourite wins you have still only lost your original $100 but if it gets beat then your profit has increased from the original $100 to $133.33.
This is a very simplistic example but it illustrates how your margins will increase if you can call the market early.Getting in early is the only way that you will get the opportunity to take advantage of such a major market shift but it also leaves you exposed if the market confounds you and moves against you.Looking at the example above what should you do if the favourite shortened into 1.90?
Well you thought evens was unders and you were happy to lay it at that price believing it ought to be at least 2.50 so leave your original $100 lay in play but accept the trade hasn't worked and have $111 on the favourite at 1.90.If the favourite wins you have lost $100.10 and if it gets beat you have won $89.What you mustn't do is allow the odds to shorten further by hesitating.Accept the trade didn't work and get out quick.
As I said this is a simplistic example and the reality is far from simple but the principal of buying at one price and selling for more is the basis of all trade and it's simply a matter of getting it right most if not all of the time.
In Part Three I'm going to look at techniques for getting into the market and exiting and what you can reasonably expect to achieve if you are proving to be ok at it
In Part One I suggested how anyone new to "laying" on Betfair might start out by taking on runners they thought should be at least double figure odds but that they could lay at odds of 8.0 or under.Then if that goes well after a hundred or so lays maybe start taking on runners that you know are live winning hopes but that are shorter odds than your analysis suggests they should be.
In Part Two I'm going to look at how using Trading Software can help you increase your margins. Before I do that I really want to reiterate a couple of cardinal rules that you must keep too if you want to give this a real chance of working for you.
Money Management
This the weakest link in most punters armoury.There are plenty of really sound and knowledgeable judges out there but unless you get totally disciplined around limiting your liabilities to a preset and consistent level the cruel hand of fate will bring you undone eventually.Even if you are the best analyst ever you still have to contend with variance and a host of factors that can conspire at times to make your analysis useless.Making money out of laying is a relentless grind.You have to be resigned to laying plenty of winners and accept it with a shrug if a host of them cluster together and you wipe out all the previous weeks profit in one poor afternoon.Providing you are keeping your liability fixed and consistent and hold your nerve through a rocky run you will gradually claw it back.You simply don't get rich quickly laying.It's five steps forward,four steps back most of the time.
How much of your initial bank you decide to risk each lay depends on how risk averse you are.I could never advise anyone to risk more than 5% per play and only then if you are laying runners over 6.0.If you start taking on favourites you should be risking 3% maximum.That's the percentage I've settled on and I stick to that being my maximum liability each lay.
Analysis and Tissue Prices
How you convert your form analysis into odds is no easy task.If you are used to doing it regularly then you will already know this.However,if you want to have a realistic idea of what is a fair price for any runner in a race then you have to have a clear and balanced idea of the respective odds of the runners in opposition.
If you really don't have the time to do the form thoroughly then use a respected and reliable ratings agency and base your strategy around their figures.Most people selling racing tips and info are shonks but there are some credible operators who have stood the test of time.In Australia the two I can attest to being excellent are Champion Picks based in Melbourne and who seem to mainly concentrate on racing there and Redbelly Sports based in Sydney.Ed Kennett who is the ratings guru at Redbelly used to fill the same role at Champion Picks until a few years ago.I don't agree with their assessments all of the time and sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong but it's a measure of the respect I have for their work that I always review their prices when they post them on their sites after racing.Win or lose they both post their results and over time they both are consistently profitable.
Kennett in particular has an unparallelled handle on NSW racing and is a truly world class operator.I have no professional or financial involvement with either so mine is a totally unbiased and objective opinion.There may be other agencies who are also good but these two publish all their results and I've monitored them for a long time.
In short you have to have a solid and reliable idea of what you think the market should look like before you start getting involved.Something may look very short at say 1.80 but unless you have an accurate handle on the opposition you are really just guessing.Guessing won't cut it so there is no easy solution it's either put the time in and do the hard yards yourself or pay for ratings that you can trust to get results over time.
Trading Software & Odds Comparison
Anyone attempting to use Betfair seriously must have trading software.If you don't have it you are at a big disadvantage and cannot do any of the trades that will help you maximise your profits.
The three most popular that I am aware of are Bet Angel Pro,Racing Traders Evolution and Geeks Toy.I think Bet Angel has the most features and applications particularly for sports trading and is the most expensive of the three.I've used Racing Traders Evolution for a while and I'm used to it and cannot see a good reason to change.I pay ten UK pounds a month (A$18) and it's fantastic value.It's doesn't matter which one you choose as all do the same job but even if you are only playing at the weekend you'll never want to be without it once you have got used to it.Be careful with it at the beginning or you'll get burn't.It's very simple and easy to use once you get used to it a bit like riding a bike but expect to be wobbly when you start.All have how to use guides and all is explained in them but do be cautious initially until you are sure of what you are doing.
If you are backing or laying you have to know what's being offered in any market.Dynamic Odds is a fantastic product that has all major bookies odds plus Betfair and the TAB's.It updates every few seconds so you can see at a glance what's being offered and by whom.Like the trading software once you are used to it you'll never want to be without it.It cost's $30 a month and is a must have if you are a serious player.
Trader Laying To Increase Profits
Betfair markets on Australian racing have very little liquidity early ( except for Saturdays and major race days) and really don't start to develop until around 10mins out from start time.The liquidity gradually increases but I would say that around 80% of the business in done in the last couple of minutes.During those last two minutes there often is very little differential between what's been offered on Betfair (after commission is taken in to account) and what's available amongst the bookies and the TAB's-this is particularly the case at the front end of the market.Getting your lay bet in early really is the only way to be ahead of the market.You have to move before the market does but you also cannot be sure that the market will always moved the way you believe it should.If you want to increase your profits from laying you need to use leverage to do you.Here's a simple example:
10 minutes out from the start the favourite is at evens (2.0).Your analysis suggests that it should be at least 2.50 and that 2.0 is big unders.You have a lay liability of $100 each time you play so you are happy to lay the favourite at evens for $100.You think the favourite will blow/drift so you have another $100 at evens hoping to offload this liability at a more realistic price as the market develops.Your initial assessment proves correct and the price moves out to 2.50 at which point you back it for $66.66.If the favourite wins you have still only lost your original $100 but if it gets beat then your profit has increased from the original $100 to $133.33.
This is a very simplistic example but it illustrates how your margins will increase if you can call the market early.Getting in early is the only way that you will get the opportunity to take advantage of such a major market shift but it also leaves you exposed if the market confounds you and moves against you.Looking at the example above what should you do if the favourite shortened into 1.90?
Well you thought evens was unders and you were happy to lay it at that price believing it ought to be at least 2.50 so leave your original $100 lay in play but accept the trade hasn't worked and have $111 on the favourite at 1.90.If the favourite wins you have lost $100.10 and if it gets beat you have won $89.What you mustn't do is allow the odds to shorten further by hesitating.Accept the trade didn't work and get out quick.
As I said this is a simplistic example and the reality is far from simple but the principal of buying at one price and selling for more is the basis of all trade and it's simply a matter of getting it right most if not all of the time.
In Part Three I'm going to look at techniques for getting into the market and exiting and what you can reasonably expect to achieve if you are proving to be ok at it
Tuesday 17 December 2013
Laying For Profit On Betfair Part One
I didn't send any bets through last week either on the blog or through Twitter.Family issues got in the way of everything last week and once I have my routine and equilibrium knocked around I prefer not to get too involved.I was marginal on two horses to back and passed on both and both won (Magnapal on Wednesday and Kiss Me Ketut on Saturday).I took a few on on the "lay" side of the exchange and came out on the wrong side there so all in all a week best forgotten about.
There is no point in been involved in this game if you don't have the ability to put disappointments behind you quickly and realise that for every time you get a week when everything seems to conspire against you you'll get one or more just the opposite provided that you are thorough,logical and persistent.
I promised a blog about using Betfair for laying and some techniques to help get the profit levels up so here it is.
Laying For Profit On Betfair
Anyone looking to operate full time or part time as a pro punter really does have to seriously consider the options offered by being able to lay horses on Betfair.
The good news is that it offers the opportunity for sound, solid plays everyday and keeps you involved when you aren't able to find anything you want to back.
The bad news is that you'll be playing in shark infested waters and your going to have to be very good and very much on top of your subject to make it work profitably for you.
It's hard to turn your mindset around from being a backer into a layer and I know some very smart operators who simply cannot adjust.It's not for everyone but if you are doing the form thoroughly every day you are passing up a chance to do really well out of races that you are not interested in backing in.
Generally if I'm backing horses I want races that I can find a definite "shape" to.Two to four realistic chances taking up the vast majority of the book.Because I only think it's possible to be completely on top of the form if you narrow things down and specialize I concentrate on Victoria and Sydney Metro.That throws up 300/ 400 bets a year or 6 to 8 a week on average.That works out as a bet in only around 10% of the races and that makes it hard to stay focused and not get bored with the other 90%.Looking for "lay' opportunities in those other races keeps you alert and involved.
Firstly each day I highlight the races that it's possible I want to back one in.Those races I form a full market on based on my opinion.If I'm confident with my odds and I can get sufficient overs I'll bet.
With the other races I decide if there exists enough information for me to get some kind of a handle on it without necessarily fully pricing it up.
Most maidens I avoid because the market in these races is strongly influenced by what is private and not public knowledge.Half the runners may be unraced and I simply don't know how good they are.The runners in these races that you feel confident opposing are often too hard to lay without offering overs as others are looking to get them too.
With the handicaps and the non maidens I first sort the runners into order.Favourite at the top and the rag at the bottom.Then I block them into groups of 4.0 chances or less,8.0 chances or less,15.0 chances or less,26.0 chances or less and then finally the others.This gives me enough to work with in highlighting the ones that open up serious unders.
Generally it's the opposite of what I'm looking for when backing.When laying I want races that are either complex and tricky and the opening market doesn't acknowledge that fact sufficiently enough or races where the objectively I think the market is out of line with my assessment.
Ultimately you will stand or fall depending on your in depth knowledge of the racing in whatever location you choose to specialize in.If you are working alone and you want to take on races in every state each day I think you will struggle.In short you have to have a really strong grasp of what is going on in the theatre you are operating in.
If you are starting out trying to get a handle on 'laying" I would suggest keeping it as simple as possible to begin with.Start by only laying horses you think are big unders and that you really don't fancy at all.Horses you think should be double figure odds and you can get a lay bet matched at 8.0 or less.Fix a definite liability that is absolutely no more than 5% of your bank.Lay it as early in betting as you can as if your analysis is sound it should generally (but will not always) ease as the market develops.Don't chase the price out to get matched at any odds.You must know from the outset how high you are prepared to go.If others are offering better than your high then leave well alone.Don't worry at all about missing one or two as there are enough opportunities and another will soon come along.
When you've got used to doing it say, after a hundred or so lay bets have a look at your results.If you are doing ok look at how you might have done a little better maybe by being a bit more aggressive not just laying the ones you really don't like but also those you feel are definite "unders' even though it wouldn't surprise you if they won.If after a hundred lay bets your losing then ask yourself objectively if you've had a poor run or is your analysis flawed.How you answer that will determine what you do next.If your analysis is not good enough you have no hope of things working in you favour.100 bets isn't a big enough sample to determine anything with any certainty but you'll have a general idea if you can or if you cannot make it work for you
In an average week I probably "lay" around 40 horses.I lay them to lose a fixed amount irrespective of if they are odds on or in double figures.The average price is around 4.0.
The thing I really must stress is money management.It really never is acceptable to exceed you fixed liability.You have already determined what you are prepared to lose and at what price you are prepared to take on that liability.Don't bend at all.
Don't also be afraid of bailing out of a liability if there is something not right about the race and you think it's dodgy.Don't be afraid to accept a modest loss if the vibes aren't good.Respect the market.If it's screaming at you that all is not what it seems.
In all betting backing or laying you have to be ahead of the market if you are going to be successful.If you are generally backing even money chances that SP at 2.20 it's London to a Brick that over time you are going skint.Likewise if your laying evens and they are returning SP's at 1.90 you are going under.Once you've established that you are generally ahead of the market you can build on this to do even better.
In Part Two I'll be looking at how to use trading to help you do better at laying.This isn't for the faint hearted and it can be hugely frustrating if it goes wrong but it is the natural progression once you have started laying successfully and want to increase you margins.
There is no point in been involved in this game if you don't have the ability to put disappointments behind you quickly and realise that for every time you get a week when everything seems to conspire against you you'll get one or more just the opposite provided that you are thorough,logical and persistent.
I promised a blog about using Betfair for laying and some techniques to help get the profit levels up so here it is.
Laying For Profit On Betfair
Anyone looking to operate full time or part time as a pro punter really does have to seriously consider the options offered by being able to lay horses on Betfair.
The good news is that it offers the opportunity for sound, solid plays everyday and keeps you involved when you aren't able to find anything you want to back.
The bad news is that you'll be playing in shark infested waters and your going to have to be very good and very much on top of your subject to make it work profitably for you.
It's hard to turn your mindset around from being a backer into a layer and I know some very smart operators who simply cannot adjust.It's not for everyone but if you are doing the form thoroughly every day you are passing up a chance to do really well out of races that you are not interested in backing in.
Generally if I'm backing horses I want races that I can find a definite "shape" to.Two to four realistic chances taking up the vast majority of the book.Because I only think it's possible to be completely on top of the form if you narrow things down and specialize I concentrate on Victoria and Sydney Metro.That throws up 300/ 400 bets a year or 6 to 8 a week on average.That works out as a bet in only around 10% of the races and that makes it hard to stay focused and not get bored with the other 90%.Looking for "lay' opportunities in those other races keeps you alert and involved.
Firstly each day I highlight the races that it's possible I want to back one in.Those races I form a full market on based on my opinion.If I'm confident with my odds and I can get sufficient overs I'll bet.
With the other races I decide if there exists enough information for me to get some kind of a handle on it without necessarily fully pricing it up.
Most maidens I avoid because the market in these races is strongly influenced by what is private and not public knowledge.Half the runners may be unraced and I simply don't know how good they are.The runners in these races that you feel confident opposing are often too hard to lay without offering overs as others are looking to get them too.
With the handicaps and the non maidens I first sort the runners into order.Favourite at the top and the rag at the bottom.Then I block them into groups of 4.0 chances or less,8.0 chances or less,15.0 chances or less,26.0 chances or less and then finally the others.This gives me enough to work with in highlighting the ones that open up serious unders.
Generally it's the opposite of what I'm looking for when backing.When laying I want races that are either complex and tricky and the opening market doesn't acknowledge that fact sufficiently enough or races where the objectively I think the market is out of line with my assessment.
Ultimately you will stand or fall depending on your in depth knowledge of the racing in whatever location you choose to specialize in.If you are working alone and you want to take on races in every state each day I think you will struggle.In short you have to have a really strong grasp of what is going on in the theatre you are operating in.
If you are starting out trying to get a handle on 'laying" I would suggest keeping it as simple as possible to begin with.Start by only laying horses you think are big unders and that you really don't fancy at all.Horses you think should be double figure odds and you can get a lay bet matched at 8.0 or less.Fix a definite liability that is absolutely no more than 5% of your bank.Lay it as early in betting as you can as if your analysis is sound it should generally (but will not always) ease as the market develops.Don't chase the price out to get matched at any odds.You must know from the outset how high you are prepared to go.If others are offering better than your high then leave well alone.Don't worry at all about missing one or two as there are enough opportunities and another will soon come along.
When you've got used to doing it say, after a hundred or so lay bets have a look at your results.If you are doing ok look at how you might have done a little better maybe by being a bit more aggressive not just laying the ones you really don't like but also those you feel are definite "unders' even though it wouldn't surprise you if they won.If after a hundred lay bets your losing then ask yourself objectively if you've had a poor run or is your analysis flawed.How you answer that will determine what you do next.If your analysis is not good enough you have no hope of things working in you favour.100 bets isn't a big enough sample to determine anything with any certainty but you'll have a general idea if you can or if you cannot make it work for you
In an average week I probably "lay" around 40 horses.I lay them to lose a fixed amount irrespective of if they are odds on or in double figures.The average price is around 4.0.
The thing I really must stress is money management.It really never is acceptable to exceed you fixed liability.You have already determined what you are prepared to lose and at what price you are prepared to take on that liability.Don't bend at all.
Don't also be afraid of bailing out of a liability if there is something not right about the race and you think it's dodgy.Don't be afraid to accept a modest loss if the vibes aren't good.Respect the market.If it's screaming at you that all is not what it seems.
In all betting backing or laying you have to be ahead of the market if you are going to be successful.If you are generally backing even money chances that SP at 2.20 it's London to a Brick that over time you are going skint.Likewise if your laying evens and they are returning SP's at 1.90 you are going under.Once you've established that you are generally ahead of the market you can build on this to do even better.
In Part Two I'll be looking at how to use trading to help you do better at laying.This isn't for the faint hearted and it can be hugely frustrating if it goes wrong but it is the natural progression once you have started laying successfully and want to increase you margins.
Friday 13 December 2013
Flemington & Kensington Today
Flemington is a Dead 4 but is dry and probably upgrades.The Kensington track at Randwick is a Good 3 and it's expected to be dry there too.
I've had a week of turmoil with family matters so I'm not on top of things quite as much as usual.In the circumstances I'll probably not be backing today although I'm sure there will be a handful that I'm happy to lay.I think they are both very tricky cards but if I do find anything of note I'll send it via Twitter.Sorry it's not helpful today but it's been a hellish week
I've had a week of turmoil with family matters so I'm not on top of things quite as much as usual.In the circumstances I'll probably not be backing today although I'm sure there will be a handful that I'm happy to lay.I think they are both very tricky cards but if I do find anything of note I'll send it via Twitter.Sorry it's not helpful today but it's been a hellish week
Tuesday 10 December 2013
Caulfield & Warwick Farm Today
Caulfield is a Dead 5 and looking at the radar now it seems more than likely that the track may get some more rain so I doubt there will be an upgrade.monitor.Warwick farm is a Good 3 and a dry afternoon is forecast.
Cards don't come more difficult than the one at Caulfield today.Most of these races would slot nicely into the programmes at Echuca,Sale Warnambool,Terang,Kyneton etc.This is the problem created when there is too much racing.Midweek metro meetings in the off season look very ordinary indeed.The only possible race I could be interested in betting in is the last but I want to see the track conditions and pattern before doing anything there. There are a handful I'm keen to take on today but it depends on how high you have to go to get matched.Challenging day!
Warwick Farm may have possibilities but I had some family drama this morning and I haven't been able to do the form thoroughly as a result.Still working on it there.
If there is anything of note today I'll tweet it through.Sorry it's all a bit negative today but it's hard to enthuse about such a mediocre programme.
Cards don't come more difficult than the one at Caulfield today.Most of these races would slot nicely into the programmes at Echuca,Sale Warnambool,Terang,Kyneton etc.This is the problem created when there is too much racing.Midweek metro meetings in the off season look very ordinary indeed.The only possible race I could be interested in betting in is the last but I want to see the track conditions and pattern before doing anything there. There are a handful I'm keen to take on today but it depends on how high you have to go to get matched.Challenging day!
Warwick Farm may have possibilities but I had some family drama this morning and I haven't been able to do the form thoroughly as a result.Still working on it there.
If there is anything of note today I'll tweet it through.Sorry it's all a bit negative today but it's hard to enthuse about such a mediocre programme.
Friday 6 December 2013
Caulfield & Kensington Today
Caulfield is a Dead 4 and probably upgrades.Kensington is a Good 3.
No bets early in Sydney but an early one at Caulfield.
Caulfield
Race 7
Initiator went to the front last time and ran them ragged.That was on a very wet track but he's been fully effective on dry ground in the UK.The step up to 2000m has to be a positive and he can make all here today.4.50 is good value against my rated price of 3.50
Advised Bets: Initiator 1.40 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.50 for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.
Chance of one or two more later and details sent via Twitter
No bets early in Sydney but an early one at Caulfield.
Caulfield
Race 7
Initiator went to the front last time and ran them ragged.That was on a very wet track but he's been fully effective on dry ground in the UK.The step up to 2000m has to be a positive and he can make all here today.4.50 is good value against my rated price of 3.50
Advised Bets: Initiator 1.40 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.50 for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.
Chance of one or two more later and details sent via Twitter
Thursday 5 December 2013
Moonee Valley Tonight
Moonee Valley is posted a Dead 4 up from a Dead 5 this morning.It's generally dry in Melbourne so there is a chance it may upgrade again.
There is nothing that appeals from early markets tonight.It's not a very attractive card to be honest and markets would have to move around a lot for me to interested in backing anything tonight.
If I have any thoughts as the night wears on I'll post them on Twitter.
There is nothing that appeals from early markets tonight.It's not a very attractive card to be honest and markets would have to move around a lot for me to interested in backing anything tonight.
If I have any thoughts as the night wears on I'll post them on Twitter.
Tuesday 3 December 2013
Sale & Canterbury Today
Persistent rain this morning in Gippsland means the Dead 5 rating for Sale is likely to be way off the mark.Expect a very wet track.Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's likely to stay dry there.
definitely no bets today but plenty of activity for me on the "lay" side of the exchange.Lots of unreasonably short priced favs. in early markets to oppose if they are gettable -often they are not.When they go up far too short and start to blow it can be very hard pulling any money in for them on Betfair until they blow out beyond what a reasonable price is.Obviously by then there is no point in doing anything.Disappointing day for a Wednesday!
definitely no bets today but plenty of activity for me on the "lay" side of the exchange.Lots of unreasonably short priced favs. in early markets to oppose if they are gettable -often they are not.When they go up far too short and start to blow it can be very hard pulling any money in for them on Betfair until they blow out beyond what a reasonable price is.Obviously by then there is no point in doing anything.Disappointing day for a Wednesday!
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