I've had a few week's away from the racing and have relocated away from the tropical North back to Melbourne. Still waiting for Telstra to connect my internet and all went very smoothly bar for them. Hopefully they will have me connected next week. Running with a mobile Wi-Fi meanwhile.
At the moment I'm catching up with what's been happening whilst I've had a bit of time off so it will be a week or two before I'm fully back in the swing of things. I'm aiming to relaunch the blog on Jan. 10 and I'll be trying to present things a little differently this year.
A quick glance at today's racing has me tempted to break my resolve to stay out until I'm all set up and ready to go again. Dothraki in R6 at Canterbury is this one that's tempting me.
Happy and Prosperous New Year wishes to you all
Friday 26 December 2014
Sunday 9 November 2014
Last Weeks Round Up and YTD Figures
Things started off well last week but fell away later. I actually had a very good week but that's not mirrored in what I sent out on the blog and "tweeted" through as I'm doing far more on the "lay" side of the exchange now than I am on the "back" side these days.
Here are last weeks figures:
UK & Int.
Nothing advised
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - bets in 5 races - 2 winners
Stakes 7.10
Profit 5.23
Bets advised via twitter - bets in 11 races - no winners
Stakes 11.90
Loss 11.90
Overall for the week Loss 6.62 units
YTD Figures
Stakes 475.30
Profit 75.06
POT 15.79%
I was very conscious on the last day of the Flemington Carnival that I am badly in need of a break.
I had planned to through November and have December off but my brains are beginning to scramble so this will be the last post this year. I've had a good year far better than these figures show as my bets have only accounted for 28% of this year's profits. Trading and laying on the exchange have provided the bulk of my earnings
At this point I think it unlikely that I will continue with the blog next year but I may change my mind after a decent break.
Here are last weeks figures:
UK & Int.
Nothing advised
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - bets in 5 races - 2 winners
Stakes 7.10
Profit 5.23
Bets advised via twitter - bets in 11 races - no winners
Stakes 11.90
Loss 11.90
Overall for the week Loss 6.62 units
YTD Figures
Stakes 475.30
Profit 75.06
POT 15.79%
I was very conscious on the last day of the Flemington Carnival that I am badly in need of a break.
I had planned to through November and have December off but my brains are beginning to scramble so this will be the last post this year. I've had a good year far better than these figures show as my bets have only accounted for 28% of this year's profits. Trading and laying on the exchange have provided the bulk of my earnings
At this point I think it unlikely that I will continue with the blog next year but I may change my mind after a decent break.
Friday 7 November 2014
Flemington Carnival - Day Four & Randwick
Flemington is upgraded to a Good 3 and it's a hot day there with a cool change forecast later. Strong hot northerly winds which are likely to turn around when the change comes.
Randwick is a Dead 4 but should upgrade as it's a dry warm day there.
A bad bout of "gastro" yesterday evening and I'm way behind as a result.
Seriously difficult card at Flemington and definitely no early bets there. May get involved as the day goes on but nothing stands out as a bet at this stage.
The card at Randwick looks more "punter friendly" and I've had one early bet there and another couple are likely as markets open up.
Randwick
Race 2
This looks very open but I thought Powerline's win at Warwick Farm was very dominant and he deserves a crack at Saturday grade. He's available at 8.50 and that looks a very fair offer. I have him at 6.0
Advised Bet: Powerline 0.85 at 6.20 or better-take the 8.50 with Bet 365 (SPG) also 8.50 with Sportsbet and Tatts.
Almost certainly more today and further bets/updates sent via Twitter
Randwick is a Dead 4 but should upgrade as it's a dry warm day there.
A bad bout of "gastro" yesterday evening and I'm way behind as a result.
Seriously difficult card at Flemington and definitely no early bets there. May get involved as the day goes on but nothing stands out as a bet at this stage.
The card at Randwick looks more "punter friendly" and I've had one early bet there and another couple are likely as markets open up.
Randwick
Race 2
This looks very open but I thought Powerline's win at Warwick Farm was very dominant and he deserves a crack at Saturday grade. He's available at 8.50 and that looks a very fair offer. I have him at 6.0
Advised Bet: Powerline 0.85 at 6.20 or better-take the 8.50 with Bet 365 (SPG) also 8.50 with Sportsbet and Tatts.
Almost certainly more today and further bets/updates sent via Twitter
Wednesday 5 November 2014
Flemington Carnival Day Three- Oaks Day
Some ultra competitive races today as you'd expect. Races 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 9 are all tricky puzzles to solve although some value at odds may show up as we get into the day.
Race 4
Beauty's Beast was a very weak favourite when running like an unfit horse at Caulfield last time. Expect him to be spot on today at his home track and be very hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Beauty's Beast 1.40 units at 3.75 or better- take the 4.00 with Bet 365 for 35% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 7
After Saturday when the inside looked a no go zone (Tuesday it looked to have evened out) you'd want to see what effect the watering has had before ploughing in early. Providing there looks to be no bias I think Angel's Beach will be very hard to roll. I'm not committed yet but I have her around 2.60 assuming it's a level playing surface.
Race 8 Oaks
Go Indy Go has the best figures and she will love the trip. She's the most likely winner for me and I've already backed her. There is still good value in her current price though. I have her rated at 3.00 and 4.80 is still available and she may trade a tad higher as markets open up.
Advised Bet: Go Indy Go 1.65 units at 3.20 or better - take the 4.80 with Bet 365 (SP Guarantee) for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
I missed getting Grand Marshal out in the tweet on Tuesday due to being distracted for 5 mins and being so busy. The price crashed pretty quickly having been around 5.50 on Betfair all morning.
Any further Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Race 4
Beauty's Beast was a very weak favourite when running like an unfit horse at Caulfield last time. Expect him to be spot on today at his home track and be very hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Beauty's Beast 1.40 units at 3.75 or better- take the 4.00 with Bet 365 for 35% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 7
After Saturday when the inside looked a no go zone (Tuesday it looked to have evened out) you'd want to see what effect the watering has had before ploughing in early. Providing there looks to be no bias I think Angel's Beach will be very hard to roll. I'm not committed yet but I have her around 2.60 assuming it's a level playing surface.
Race 8 Oaks
Go Indy Go has the best figures and she will love the trip. She's the most likely winner for me and I've already backed her. There is still good value in her current price though. I have her rated at 3.00 and 4.80 is still available and she may trade a tad higher as markets open up.
Advised Bet: Go Indy Go 1.65 units at 3.20 or better - take the 4.80 with Bet 365 (SP Guarantee) for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
I missed getting Grand Marshal out in the tweet on Tuesday due to being distracted for 5 mins and being so busy. The price crashed pretty quickly having been around 5.50 on Betfair all morning.
Any further Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Monday 3 November 2014
Flemington Carnival Day Two - Melbourne Cup Day
Dead 4 posted at Flemington and currently dry but with a narrow band of heavy rain moving in from the west and a lighter band of rain following it. Doubt it gets any worse than dead but depending on where it hits and in what quantity will determine if we are racing on good or worse. Monitor.
I dealt with the Cup in an earlier post and the for the advised bets I stick to the two at the best value.
Melbourne Cup
Advised Bets; Signoff 0.75 units at 7.0 or better and Protectionist 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-
Shop around for the best deal you can get
Other races of interest at Flemington today are
Race 2
Advised Bets: Khutulun 0.85 units at 6.0 or better and Precious Gem 0.85 units at 6.0 or better
Race 3
Grand Marshall of interest here -not committed yet
Race 4
The Quarterback of interest here
Race 5
Not betting here
Race 6
Not betting here
Race 8
Stipulate and Quayside of interest here
Race 9
Target In Sight of interest here
Race 10
Rose Of Choice of interest here
Updates and Bets advised via Twitter
I dealt with the Cup in an earlier post and the for the advised bets I stick to the two at the best value.
Melbourne Cup
Advised Bets; Signoff 0.75 units at 7.0 or better and Protectionist 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-
Shop around for the best deal you can get
Other races of interest at Flemington today are
Race 2
Advised Bets: Khutulun 0.85 units at 6.0 or better and Precious Gem 0.85 units at 6.0 or better
Race 3
Grand Marshall of interest here -not committed yet
Race 4
The Quarterback of interest here
Race 5
Not betting here
Race 6
Not betting here
Race 8
Stipulate and Quayside of interest here
Race 9
Target In Sight of interest here
Race 10
Rose Of Choice of interest here
Updates and Bets advised via Twitter
Melbourne Cup 2014
It's dry in Melbourne on the eve of the Cup. Chance of a little rain tomorrow and a cool change is forecast for late afternoon bringing very strong wind gusts. If it arrives earlier then it may be a factor especially if it brings rain as well. At this stage though it looks like good decent ground.
Overseas runners and imported stayers plus the constricted weight scale have dramatically altered this race over the last dozen years. It's a handicap of course but only genuinely high class horses win these days and two thirds of the field are impossible to fancy at all if your a serious form analyst.
I'm not emphatic about any particular horse this year but I think it's odds on the winner comes from a batch of five runners. That presents a real punting opportunity if you shop around and get the best offerings available. If you choose three of the serious hopes and save on the other two you should average around 2.00 your stake and that's a very attractive proposition as the true odds are nearer to 1.65. I know that doesn't sound a very attractive proposition to the majority of punters but that's probably how I'll play it. Anyone of these five is "overs" at their overnight quotes although Lucia Valentina and Fawkner are only marginally so on my figures.
My top five in order are:
Signoff- 51kg's and the best is yet to come-peaks perfectly and has the momentum
Protectionist- unexposed and terrific trial run-almost certainly better than bare form reads
Admire Rakti- Caulfield Cup the best trial and strong winner-only a 0.5kg penalty
Lucia Valentina- Equal of winner in Caulfield Cup. May need luck from gate getting clear passage
Fawkner- Good from hopeless position last year-second Cox Plate and sure to be thereabouts
Outside these Who Shot The Barman may still have scope to do better and My Ambivalent has a very good fresh record and would be a serious contender had she not had an interrupted preparation and a query at the trip.
Overseas runners and imported stayers plus the constricted weight scale have dramatically altered this race over the last dozen years. It's a handicap of course but only genuinely high class horses win these days and two thirds of the field are impossible to fancy at all if your a serious form analyst.
I'm not emphatic about any particular horse this year but I think it's odds on the winner comes from a batch of five runners. That presents a real punting opportunity if you shop around and get the best offerings available. If you choose three of the serious hopes and save on the other two you should average around 2.00 your stake and that's a very attractive proposition as the true odds are nearer to 1.65. I know that doesn't sound a very attractive proposition to the majority of punters but that's probably how I'll play it. Anyone of these five is "overs" at their overnight quotes although Lucia Valentina and Fawkner are only marginally so on my figures.
My top five in order are:
Signoff- 51kg's and the best is yet to come-peaks perfectly and has the momentum
Protectionist- unexposed and terrific trial run-almost certainly better than bare form reads
Admire Rakti- Caulfield Cup the best trial and strong winner-only a 0.5kg penalty
Lucia Valentina- Equal of winner in Caulfield Cup. May need luck from gate getting clear passage
Fawkner- Good from hopeless position last year-second Cox Plate and sure to be thereabouts
Outside these Who Shot The Barman may still have scope to do better and My Ambivalent has a very good fresh record and would be a serious contender had she not had an interrupted preparation and a query at the trip.
Sunday 2 November 2014
October Round Up
A very modest overall profit in October with a 9.00 unit profit on the UK & International bets and a loss of 7.46 in Australia. Here's the breakdown:
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 3.70
Profit 2.70 units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 6 races - 2 winners
Stakes 5.40
Profit 6.70 units
UK & Int. total for October PROFIT 9.00 units
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - berts advised in 11 races - 1 winner
Stakes 13.40
Loss 6.37units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 16 races - 3 winners
Stakes 18.10
Loss 1.09 units
Australia total for October LOSS 7.46 units
Total for October Overall PROFIT 1.54 units
Year to date figures:
Stakes 456.30
Profit 81.68 units
POT 17.90%
Melbourne Cup tommorrow so back then
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 3.70
Profit 2.70 units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 6 races - 2 winners
Stakes 5.40
Profit 6.70 units
UK & Int. total for October PROFIT 9.00 units
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - berts advised in 11 races - 1 winner
Stakes 13.40
Loss 6.37units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 16 races - 3 winners
Stakes 18.10
Loss 1.09 units
Australia total for October LOSS 7.46 units
Total for October Overall PROFIT 1.54 units
Year to date figures:
Stakes 456.30
Profit 81.68 units
POT 17.90%
Melbourne Cup tommorrow so back then
Friday 31 October 2014
Flemington Carnival - Day One (VRC Derby, Coolmore, Myer Classic and Mackinnon)
Huge day in prospect at Flemington with an outstanding programme including four G1's.
The band of heavy rain that swept through Victoria this morning only seemed to skirt Flemington so the track is still rated a Good 3. There is a bit more rain coming but looking at the radar I'm figuring the worst it will do is drop it down to Dead 4. The wind is quite strong and that may disadvantage on pacers but watch a race or two before jumping to any early conclusions.
I like to charge into such a great day's racing bullish about a handful of horses I want to back but I cannot. Prices on the ones I like are either slight unders or very tight to my assessed odds. Value may appear as the day goes on but at this stage I haven't backed anything.
There are a couple of possibilities at Rosehill but again at this stage I'm uncommitted.
Any Bets and Updates sent via Twitter
The band of heavy rain that swept through Victoria this morning only seemed to skirt Flemington so the track is still rated a Good 3. There is a bit more rain coming but looking at the radar I'm figuring the worst it will do is drop it down to Dead 4. The wind is quite strong and that may disadvantage on pacers but watch a race or two before jumping to any early conclusions.
I like to charge into such a great day's racing bullish about a handful of horses I want to back but I cannot. Prices on the ones I like are either slight unders or very tight to my assessed odds. Value may appear as the day goes on but at this stage I haven't backed anything.
There are a couple of possibilities at Rosehill but again at this stage I'm uncommitted.
Any Bets and Updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 28 October 2014
Cup Day At Bendigo & Warwick Farm
Bendigo post a Dead 4 and it's a fine warm day so there must be a good chance of an early upgrade.
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast ground there.
Order Of The Sun is 2.20 fav. in the Bendigo Cup which looks serious unders to me in what is admittedly a pretty thin race. He's going to get a soft lead here but he's up 6 points for his last win and is still 9 points out of the handicap on official figures. Negatives of one or another kind attach to every other runner here so it looks a very trappy race to me.
Two or three of interest today but I'd like to give markets a chance to open up a bit before ploughing in early.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast ground there.
Order Of The Sun is 2.20 fav. in the Bendigo Cup which looks serious unders to me in what is admittedly a pretty thin race. He's going to get a soft lead here but he's up 6 points for his last win and is still 9 points out of the handicap on official figures. Negatives of one or another kind attach to every other runner here so it looks a very trappy race to me.
Two or three of interest today but I'd like to give markets a chance to open up a bit before ploughing in early.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Monday 27 October 2014
Last Weeks Round Up & YTD Figures
It's quite a while since I haven't had a least one winner in the week but last week I couldn't snag one. Three seconds (two nosed out by the minimum margin) but no wins. It was a struggle finding value horses that I wanted to back so the damage wasn't terrible. Here are the figures:
UK & Int.
No bets last week in the blog or sent via twitter. The turf season is almost over and there won't be anymore UK bets this year. Breeders Cup this weekend may throw up something.
Australia
No bets in the blog last week
Bets sent via Twitter - Bets advised in 7 races - No winners
Stakes 6.45 units
Loss 6.45 units
Year to date figures
Stakes 455.45
PROFIT 82.53 units
POT 18.12 %
The biggest week on the Australian calendar starts on Saturday. Providing we are not served up with wet conditions there no reason to anything other than confident of a decent week.
Back tomorrow for Bendigo Cup day
UK & Int.
No bets last week in the blog or sent via twitter. The turf season is almost over and there won't be anymore UK bets this year. Breeders Cup this weekend may throw up something.
Australia
No bets in the blog last week
Bets sent via Twitter - Bets advised in 7 races - No winners
Stakes 6.45 units
Loss 6.45 units
Year to date figures
Stakes 455.45
PROFIT 82.53 units
POT 18.12 %
The biggest week on the Australian calendar starts on Saturday. Providing we are not served up with wet conditions there no reason to anything other than confident of a decent week.
Back tomorrow for Bendigo Cup day
Friday 24 October 2014
Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley and Rosehill
Moonee Valley is a Good 3 and no rain on the horizon. Rosehill is a Good 3 and again no rain around.
Very competitive racing all round today and there is nothing at this stage that I'm falling over myself to back at current quotes.
Cox Plate
This race can catch you out a bit and some of the recent renewals have been challenging for punters.
I don't like Moonee Valley particularly and I think it's a trappy place to be betting unless you have the right type of horse and scenario (generally on pace -little pressure). With little or no confidence my top 5 this year are:
Sacred Falls
Fawkner
Criterion
Adelaide
Silent Achiever
I expect it will be a relatively quiet day bets wise today. If I'm having any they will go out with any updates via Twitter
Very competitive racing all round today and there is nothing at this stage that I'm falling over myself to back at current quotes.
Cox Plate
This race can catch you out a bit and some of the recent renewals have been challenging for punters.
I don't like Moonee Valley particularly and I think it's a trappy place to be betting unless you have the right type of horse and scenario (generally on pace -little pressure). With little or no confidence my top 5 this year are:
Sacred Falls
Fawkner
Criterion
Adelaide
Silent Achiever
I expect it will be a relatively quiet day bets wise today. If I'm having any they will go out with any updates via Twitter
Tuesday 21 October 2014
Geelong Cup Day & Kensington
Cup day at Geelong and the track is a Dead 4 and it's fine and very warm but with a possibility of rain late in the afternoon as the weather breaks. Probably upgrades early in the day.
Kensington is a Dead 4 and it's dry there so expect an upgrade.
A few of interest today but hoping that markets open up a bit more favourably closer to post time.
Pushed for time today but will be looking at Zanbagh in the cup and hoping to get set around the 6.0 mark.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during
Kensington is a Dead 4 and it's dry there so expect an upgrade.
A few of interest today but hoping that markets open up a bit more favourably closer to post time.
Pushed for time today but will be looking at Zanbagh in the cup and hoping to get set around the 6.0 mark.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during
Monday 20 October 2014
Last Week's Round Up & YTD Figures
Profitable week off a modest turnover considering the quality of the racing. I was expecting a very busy weekend with 6 G1's over Friday and Saturday in the UK but the rain came big style and whilst it was great to watch I kept my involvement mostly to trading and laying with just the one bet (loser) and that was in retrospect a bit loose. I've tried to play things very tight this year with what I actually send out and sometimes I'm simply too involved during racing to get out everything I'd like to. So far it's been a good year and with only a few week's of decent racing left I'm hoping I don't hit a barren spell to finish off the year.
Here are the figures:
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 2.65
Profit 3.48 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 6 races - 3 winners
Stakes 7.60
Profit 4.11 units
Total for Australia for the week PROFIT 7.59 units
UK & Int.
No blog's covering the UK due to the weather conditions so no blog bets .
Bets advised via Twitter - 1 bet (loser)
Stakes 0.90
Loss 0.90 units
Total UK for the week LOSS 0.90 units
Overall for the week PROFIT 6.69 units
YTD figures
Stakes 449.00
PROFIT 88.98 units
POT 19.82%
Here are the figures:
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 2.65
Profit 3.48 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 6 races - 3 winners
Stakes 7.60
Profit 4.11 units
Total for Australia for the week PROFIT 7.59 units
UK & Int.
No blog's covering the UK due to the weather conditions so no blog bets .
Bets advised via Twitter - 1 bet (loser)
Stakes 0.90
Loss 0.90 units
Total UK for the week LOSS 0.90 units
Overall for the week PROFIT 6.69 units
YTD figures
Stakes 449.00
PROFIT 88.98 units
POT 19.82%
Friday 17 October 2014
Caulfield Cup Day & Randwick
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's dry. Whether that Good 3 is actually a Dead 4 to begin with ( I suspect it is ) the early races will tell us. It'll keep getting faster as the day goes on so top of the ground horses should be suited.
Randwick is a Dead 5 and it's drying out all the time so expect an upgrade to a Dead 4 at some point. If there is anything at Randwick I'll send it via Twitter during racing.
Caulfield Cup
A bit below the usual standard this year I think.
Lucia Valentina is favourite at around 4.60 which is too short and I expect her to blow. Fast ground and 2400m are both niggling queries with her and whilst I concede she's a live hope I want to look elsewhere for the winner. My shortlist is the three Waller trained runners Junoob, Hawkspur and Who Shot The Barman and the Moody trained Brambles. I haven't finalized a strategy around these four yet but will send details through on Twitter during the afternoon.
Race 6
Sweet Idea to lead here and she's rock hard fit and will be hard to pass. Catkins and May's Dream have G1 races in mind so may only be 90% right today and Girl Guide has a bit to find to knock off Sweet Idea.
Advised Bet: Sweet Idea 1.75 units at 3.0 or better- you can have 3.40 with Sportsbet but only for loose change-generally 3.20 or less-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 (WG)for half the stake and monitor closely with balance as you may get better on Betfair at some point. I expect it to be very firm in betting close to the off
Other Bets/Updates sent via twitter during racing
Randwick is a Dead 5 and it's drying out all the time so expect an upgrade to a Dead 4 at some point. If there is anything at Randwick I'll send it via Twitter during racing.
Caulfield Cup
A bit below the usual standard this year I think.
Lucia Valentina is favourite at around 4.60 which is too short and I expect her to blow. Fast ground and 2400m are both niggling queries with her and whilst I concede she's a live hope I want to look elsewhere for the winner. My shortlist is the three Waller trained runners Junoob, Hawkspur and Who Shot The Barman and the Moody trained Brambles. I haven't finalized a strategy around these four yet but will send details through on Twitter during the afternoon.
Race 6
Sweet Idea to lead here and she's rock hard fit and will be hard to pass. Catkins and May's Dream have G1 races in mind so may only be 90% right today and Girl Guide has a bit to find to knock off Sweet Idea.
Advised Bet: Sweet Idea 1.75 units at 3.0 or better- you can have 3.40 with Sportsbet but only for loose change-generally 3.20 or less-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 (WG)for half the stake and monitor closely with balance as you may get better on Betfair at some point. I expect it to be very firm in betting close to the off
Other Bets/Updates sent via twitter during racing
Tuesday 14 October 2014
Caulfield & Warwick Farm Today
Very good card at Caulfield today with a G3 races for the mares, a couple of Listed events and some very competitive handicaps. It's a Good 3 at Caulfield and it's dry there although there is a possibilty of showers later in the day.
Warwick Farm posts a Heavy 8 but Sydney has been deluged this morning so that reading may be very optismistic. Not doing anything early there and will need to see how the track is racing before seriously considering any plays there today.
I was busy with other things earlier in the week so only got into the Caulfield card early today and inevitably some of the early value is now long gone. I'm going to hope that some of these markets open up a bit closer to post time as there are few marginal ones today that have shortened and whilst I'm not playing at current quotes they will only have to ease slightly for me to get on board. Just one early bet today
Caulfield
Race 4
Fledged is very well treated here on his UK form. His Aussie debut was very sound in a race that was a bit too short for him. 2400m today suits much better. Bring Something is the other one of interest here but at this stage I'm only committed to Fledged
Advised Bet: Fledged 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-take the 6.0 with Bet 365 with guarantees for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Warwick Farm posts a Heavy 8 but Sydney has been deluged this morning so that reading may be very optismistic. Not doing anything early there and will need to see how the track is racing before seriously considering any plays there today.
I was busy with other things earlier in the week so only got into the Caulfield card early today and inevitably some of the early value is now long gone. I'm going to hope that some of these markets open up a bit closer to post time as there are few marginal ones today that have shortened and whilst I'm not playing at current quotes they will only have to ease slightly for me to get on board. Just one early bet today
Caulfield
Race 4
Fledged is very well treated here on his UK form. His Aussie debut was very sound in a race that was a bit too short for him. 2400m today suits much better. Bring Something is the other one of interest here but at this stage I'm only committed to Fledged
Advised Bet: Fledged 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-take the 6.0 with Bet 365 with guarantees for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Monday 13 October 2014
Last week's Round Up & YTD Figures
The bets sent in the blog and by Twitter were in the red last week. Here are the figures:
Australia
Blog - Bets advised in 5 races - No winners
Stakes 5.75
Loss 5.75 units
Twitter - Bets advised in 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 2.40
Profit 3.00 units
Total for Australia Loss 2.75 units
UK & Int.
Blog - No Bets
Twitter - Bets advised in 2 races - No winners
Stakes 1.50
Loss 1.50 units
Total for UK Loss 1.50 units
Overall Total for the week LOSS 4.25 units
Year To Date Figures are:
Stakes 437.85
PROFIT 82.29 units
POT 18.79%
Back Wednesday with a look at the very good Caulfield meeting
Australia
Blog - Bets advised in 5 races - No winners
Stakes 5.75
Loss 5.75 units
Twitter - Bets advised in 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 2.40
Profit 3.00 units
Total for Australia Loss 2.75 units
UK & Int.
Blog - No Bets
Twitter - Bets advised in 2 races - No winners
Stakes 1.50
Loss 1.50 units
Total for UK Loss 1.50 units
Overall Total for the week LOSS 4.25 units
Year To Date Figures are:
Stakes 437.85
PROFIT 82.29 units
POT 18.79%
Back Wednesday with a look at the very good Caulfield meeting
Friday 10 October 2014
Guineas Day At Caulfield & Spring Champion At Randwick
Guineas day at Caulfield with four G1's the Caulfield Guineas, 1000 Guineas, Toorak Handicap and the Caulfield Stakes. All four are terrific races with good competitive fields. The track is posted as a Good 3 and it's dry.
Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick and a decent competitive card to complement the feature. It's posted a Good 3 at Randwick and he weather is dry.
Any Randwick bets will be sent via Twitter during racing.Just need a couple of the markets there to hopefully open up a bit before committing to anything there.
Caulfield
Race 6
With Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate looming as the target for some they may just be a tad short of their optimum this afternoon.Dissident is a risk at this trip and I'd want to see him win at this trip before siding with him. I'll take a chance at odds with the likely leader Crackerjack King. His effort when a close third behind Foreteller and Happy Trails was excellent and he'll be fitter and the extra 200m suits. He's around 16.0 this morning and I have rated at 12.0 here so there's enough value to be interested here.
Advised Bet: Cracerjack King 0.40 units at 13.0 or better-monitor on Betfair or TAB have a max $50 refund if you finish 2nd or 3rd so you may want to consider going there for your first $50
Race 7
Very open Toorak as usual but Bull Point is this one that interests me most. I've somehow missed getting on the Trust In A Gust bandwagon this Spring so with him up another 8 points for the last win I'm not jumping on now-definitely a very live chance though. Bull Point is just coming to the boil now though and from a good gate and with a master jockey he's the top pick
Advised Bet: Bull Point 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-doubt you'll get much better than the current top 6.50 but monitor closely.TAB have the same max $50 refund if your placed.
Race 8
Go Indy Go clearly on top for me although no good thing obviously as there are a few hopes. Terrific late splits last time coming from the rear in a slow run race and surely she beats those that ran against her there. The extra trip is all in her favour and she will go very,very close here.
Advised Bet: Go Indy Go 1.40 units at 3.70 or better-keep monitoring but doubt it starts bigger than the current top quote of 4.80. That's with Sportsbet and you get your first $100 back with them if you don't win but place 2nd or 3rd
Race 8
Rich Enuff a strong favourite and if he can run out the 1600m then he'll be hard to beat. He's a risk at the trip though so his 2.25 quote makes little appeal. The main opposition is Looks Like The Cat, Shooting To Win and Almalad in that order and none of these would surprise. I'm right on the margin of betting or passing this race but at around 7.50 Looks Like The Cat just gets me involved.
Advised Bet: Looks Like The Cat 0.70 units at 7.20 or better-monitor betting and note Sportsbet have the same $100 max refund here if you are 2nd or 3rd
Race 10
I can only realistically see two possibly winners here although it is a mares race so I've done my figures tighter so I'm sure there value before I play. Girl Guide has been excellent and she will be handy from a nice gate but Shamal Wind should have beaten her last time and she is the best horse here by a margin (concede Girl Guide is improving and was wide last time). I have Shamal 2.10 and GG at 3.60 so happy to play Shamal at around 2.50
Advised Bet: Shamal Wind 2.35 units at 2.20 or better. Plenty of 2.50 around so monitor on Betfair for a bit better. A saver on the other one or a saver exacta is an idea with some merit in it
Further Bets/Updates sent during racing. Terrific day hope you enjoy it
Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick and a decent competitive card to complement the feature. It's posted a Good 3 at Randwick and he weather is dry.
Any Randwick bets will be sent via Twitter during racing.Just need a couple of the markets there to hopefully open up a bit before committing to anything there.
Caulfield
Race 6
With Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate looming as the target for some they may just be a tad short of their optimum this afternoon.Dissident is a risk at this trip and I'd want to see him win at this trip before siding with him. I'll take a chance at odds with the likely leader Crackerjack King. His effort when a close third behind Foreteller and Happy Trails was excellent and he'll be fitter and the extra 200m suits. He's around 16.0 this morning and I have rated at 12.0 here so there's enough value to be interested here.
Advised Bet: Cracerjack King 0.40 units at 13.0 or better-monitor on Betfair or TAB have a max $50 refund if you finish 2nd or 3rd so you may want to consider going there for your first $50
Race 7
Very open Toorak as usual but Bull Point is this one that interests me most. I've somehow missed getting on the Trust In A Gust bandwagon this Spring so with him up another 8 points for the last win I'm not jumping on now-definitely a very live chance though. Bull Point is just coming to the boil now though and from a good gate and with a master jockey he's the top pick
Advised Bet: Bull Point 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-doubt you'll get much better than the current top 6.50 but monitor closely.TAB have the same max $50 refund if your placed.
Race 8
Go Indy Go clearly on top for me although no good thing obviously as there are a few hopes. Terrific late splits last time coming from the rear in a slow run race and surely she beats those that ran against her there. The extra trip is all in her favour and she will go very,very close here.
Advised Bet: Go Indy Go 1.40 units at 3.70 or better-keep monitoring but doubt it starts bigger than the current top quote of 4.80. That's with Sportsbet and you get your first $100 back with them if you don't win but place 2nd or 3rd
Race 8
Rich Enuff a strong favourite and if he can run out the 1600m then he'll be hard to beat. He's a risk at the trip though so his 2.25 quote makes little appeal. The main opposition is Looks Like The Cat, Shooting To Win and Almalad in that order and none of these would surprise. I'm right on the margin of betting or passing this race but at around 7.50 Looks Like The Cat just gets me involved.
Advised Bet: Looks Like The Cat 0.70 units at 7.20 or better-monitor betting and note Sportsbet have the same $100 max refund here if you are 2nd or 3rd
Race 10
I can only realistically see two possibly winners here although it is a mares race so I've done my figures tighter so I'm sure there value before I play. Girl Guide has been excellent and she will be handy from a nice gate but Shamal Wind should have beaten her last time and she is the best horse here by a margin (concede Girl Guide is improving and was wide last time). I have Shamal 2.10 and GG at 3.60 so happy to play Shamal at around 2.50
Advised Bet: Shamal Wind 2.35 units at 2.20 or better. Plenty of 2.50 around so monitor on Betfair for a bit better. A saver on the other one or a saver exacta is an idea with some merit in it
Further Bets/Updates sent during racing. Terrific day hope you enjoy it
Monday 6 October 2014
Last Week's Round Up and YTD Figures
Fantastic day at Longchamp yesterday and wonderful to see a real equine star in Treve re-establish herself again as the best around. Less wonderful was the insane decision by the French steward to demote Gleneagles in the G1 2-y-o event a decision that is impossible for all but the most pedantic to justify.
Bets wise this week it's been a dry rub in Australia but good in the UK & International area. Here are the figures:
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 4 races and no winner
Stakes 4.10
Loss 4.10 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 1 race and it's a loser
Stakes 1.65
Loss 1.65 units
Total for Australia for the week LOSS 5.75 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 2.70
Profit 2.30 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets advised in 3 races - 2 winners
Stakes 2.90
Profit 9.10 units
Total for UK & Int. for the week PROFIT 11.40 units
Overall for the week PROFIT 5.65 units.
Overall Year to Date figures
Stakes 428.20
Profit 86.54
POT 20.21%
Bets wise this week it's been a dry rub in Australia but good in the UK & International area. Here are the figures:
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 4 races and no winner
Stakes 4.10
Loss 4.10 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 1 race and it's a loser
Stakes 1.65
Loss 1.65 units
Total for Australia for the week LOSS 5.75 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 2.70
Profit 2.30 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets advised in 3 races - 2 winners
Stakes 2.90
Profit 9.10 units
Total for UK & Int. for the week PROFIT 11.40 units
Overall for the week PROFIT 5.65 units.
Overall Year to Date figures
Stakes 428.20
Profit 86.54
POT 20.21%
Sunday 5 October 2014
'Arc' Day In Paris
Longchamp must have received some of the rain that fell around Paris overnight but looking at the weather details it was probably no more than 3mm max. so expect genuine Good ground at least.
Race 1
Sole Power would be a risk on anything softer than Good but the weather gods have been kind to him and he's clearly the horse to beat. It's up to Richard Hughes to steer a clear passage for him but as long as he get's the break he should win. Don't expect fancy odds as the Paris Turfistes have learned not to be parochial in this race as it fall's to the home team only very occasionally. Trust Hughes to weave a way through and take the 3.50
Advised Bet: Sole Power 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.50 on offer now
Race 5
A very open looking 'Arc' and the betting reflects that. I'm opposing Just A Way and Avenir Certain as both have to be doubts at the trip. Ectot looked very good winning last time and he'll be that little bit fitter today so is not easily dismissed. He'll need to find another couple of lengths though to win and he's well found at the top of the market. I'll look to the fillies and will build a strategy around Taghrooda , Harp Star, Treve and Dolniya.
Advised Bets: Taghrooda 0.70 units at 7.50 or better
Harp Star 0.65 units at 8.0 or better
Treve 0.40 units at 12.0 or better
Dolniya 0.30 units at 19.0 or better
Monitor on Betfair with all of these and you should do much better than the bookies
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Race 1
Sole Power would be a risk on anything softer than Good but the weather gods have been kind to him and he's clearly the horse to beat. It's up to Richard Hughes to steer a clear passage for him but as long as he get's the break he should win. Don't expect fancy odds as the Paris Turfistes have learned not to be parochial in this race as it fall's to the home team only very occasionally. Trust Hughes to weave a way through and take the 3.50
Advised Bet: Sole Power 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.50 on offer now
Race 5
A very open looking 'Arc' and the betting reflects that. I'm opposing Just A Way and Avenir Certain as both have to be doubts at the trip. Ectot looked very good winning last time and he'll be that little bit fitter today so is not easily dismissed. He'll need to find another couple of lengths though to win and he's well found at the top of the market. I'll look to the fillies and will build a strategy around Taghrooda , Harp Star, Treve and Dolniya.
Advised Bets: Taghrooda 0.70 units at 7.50 or better
Harp Star 0.65 units at 8.0 or better
Treve 0.40 units at 12.0 or better
Dolniya 0.30 units at 19.0 or better
Monitor on Betfair with all of these and you should do much better than the bookies
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Friday 3 October 2014
Flemington ( Turnbull Stakes G1 ) & Randwick ( 3 G1's Epsom, Metropolitan & Flight)
Flemington and Randwick are both posted as Good 3 and dry warm conditions at both tracks.
Randwick (and Sydney) have their premier Spring day with three G1's. It's a good day's racing but overall it's hard not to conclude that Sydney's Spring Carnival has wilted badly in the last few years. The Epsom this year is way below the expected standard and many of the other races are lacking any real depth. The Metropolitan is a least very competitive although it's gone backwards since the distance was changed. No early bets at Randwick today although there may be a couple later on.
Flemington has a typically tough competitive card and there's no lack of depth here.
Race 5
Chautauqua was a most impressive winner here first up. He may turn out to be the new sprinting star but he meets Temple Of Boom 6kg's worse for the 2.5 length he beat him last time. That's a big turnaround and Temple is a rock solid performer here and at the odds differential I'd much rather back him. The NZ mare Bounding has very strong claims too but she's a mare resuming and has bigger targets although her first up stats are very good.
Advised Bet: Temple Of Boom 1.10 units at 4.70 or better-take the 5.50 Sportsbet avialable to noon
Race 7
I'm going with two here that may still have a bit more to offer.It's mighty competitive but both Entirely Platinum and Stipulate appeal at the available odds.
Advised Bets: Stipulate 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-monitor
Entirely Platinum 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Sportsbet available until noon
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Randwick (and Sydney) have their premier Spring day with three G1's. It's a good day's racing but overall it's hard not to conclude that Sydney's Spring Carnival has wilted badly in the last few years. The Epsom this year is way below the expected standard and many of the other races are lacking any real depth. The Metropolitan is a least very competitive although it's gone backwards since the distance was changed. No early bets at Randwick today although there may be a couple later on.
Flemington has a typically tough competitive card and there's no lack of depth here.
Race 5
Chautauqua was a most impressive winner here first up. He may turn out to be the new sprinting star but he meets Temple Of Boom 6kg's worse for the 2.5 length he beat him last time. That's a big turnaround and Temple is a rock solid performer here and at the odds differential I'd much rather back him. The NZ mare Bounding has very strong claims too but she's a mare resuming and has bigger targets although her first up stats are very good.
Advised Bet: Temple Of Boom 1.10 units at 4.70 or better-take the 5.50 Sportsbet avialable to noon
Race 7
I'm going with two here that may still have a bit more to offer.It's mighty competitive but both Entirely Platinum and Stipulate appeal at the available odds.
Advised Bets: Stipulate 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-monitor
Entirely Platinum 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Sportsbet available until noon
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Thursday 2 October 2014
Moonee Valley Tonight
Moonee Valley posts a Dead 4 and it's dry so an upgrade is more than likely.
Race 2
Very open looking 3-y-o fillies BM64. Devon Princess and Reann's Diamond head the betting both around the 4.50 mark. They both look unders to me and I'd much rather be with the Moody trained Where It Began who has a handy 3kg claimer and will either lead or be handy at least. The 4 runner race she was third in at Wangaratta rates a very strong BM64 on my figures (the winner is potentially useful and the second is decent at least). I was really taken with Kiyomi's debut effort in a decent maiden and she ran like she'd come on a lot for the race. They have bypassed the maiden and gone straight into 64 grade and I think she is likely to turn out pretty handy
Advised Bets : Where It Began 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-take the 14.0 with Bet365 (WG)
Kiyoni 0.55 units at 10.0 or better -take the 12.0 with Bet 365 (WG)
Race 5
The Bounty Queen makes plenty of appeal from gate 1. She has terrific barrier speed and she should get the lead here. She blew badly in the betting on her reappearance at Wangaratta and ran like the run was needed.She finished her last prep here beating Girl Guide giving her 4.5kg's. That horse is rated in the 90's now and The Bounty queen races off 71 here. Tackleberry is a serious chance if he can be as effective over this 955m trip first up. Magnus Reign has his first run for D.Weir and he's a proven performer here at this trip so if he finds any improvement he'll be a strong chance as well.
Advised Bets: The Bounty Queen 0.75 units at 7.0 or better
A couple of these bets were sent via Twitter a bit earlier but as the prices are still the same I'll log all these bets as sent in the blog for record keeping purposes
Any further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Race 2
Very open looking 3-y-o fillies BM64. Devon Princess and Reann's Diamond head the betting both around the 4.50 mark. They both look unders to me and I'd much rather be with the Moody trained Where It Began who has a handy 3kg claimer and will either lead or be handy at least. The 4 runner race she was third in at Wangaratta rates a very strong BM64 on my figures (the winner is potentially useful and the second is decent at least). I was really taken with Kiyomi's debut effort in a decent maiden and she ran like she'd come on a lot for the race. They have bypassed the maiden and gone straight into 64 grade and I think she is likely to turn out pretty handy
Advised Bets : Where It Began 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-take the 14.0 with Bet365 (WG)
Kiyoni 0.55 units at 10.0 or better -take the 12.0 with Bet 365 (WG)
Race 5
The Bounty Queen makes plenty of appeal from gate 1. She has terrific barrier speed and she should get the lead here. She blew badly in the betting on her reappearance at Wangaratta and ran like the run was needed.She finished her last prep here beating Girl Guide giving her 4.5kg's. That horse is rated in the 90's now and The Bounty queen races off 71 here. Tackleberry is a serious chance if he can be as effective over this 955m trip first up. Magnus Reign has his first run for D.Weir and he's a proven performer here at this trip so if he finds any improvement he'll be a strong chance as well.
Advised Bets: The Bounty Queen 0.75 units at 7.0 or better
A couple of these bets were sent via Twitter a bit earlier but as the prices are still the same I'll log all these bets as sent in the blog for record keeping purposes
Any further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Tuesday 30 September 2014
Sale & Canterbury Today
Sale posts a Slow 6 and there has been showery weather around this morning so I doubt it gets any better,maybe a tad worse-monitor.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and sunny so expect fast ground there.
A substandard Spring Wednesday today and tough races to be confident about. I could have maybe been interested in One Direction at Canterbury (R6) but the early morning 3.20 is now 2.50 tops which seems about right.Possible speed battle upfront in this race so I need value to bet here.
Expect to be playing almost exclusively on the "lay' side of the exchange today.
If anything does come up I'll post it on Twitter.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and sunny so expect fast ground there.
A substandard Spring Wednesday today and tough races to be confident about. I could have maybe been interested in One Direction at Canterbury (R6) but the early morning 3.20 is now 2.50 tops which seems about right.Possible speed battle upfront in this race so I need value to bet here.
Expect to be playing almost exclusively on the "lay' side of the exchange today.
If anything does come up I'll post it on Twitter.
September Round Up & YTD Figures
A very good set of figures this month despite a few health issues slowing me down a bit over the last few weeks. Here are the results:
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 9 races - 1 winner (good overlay)
Stakes 8.40
Profit 0.70 units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets advised in 34 races - 7 winners
Stakes 35.55
Profit 10.99 units
Overall Australia for the month PROFIT 11.69 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 1.30
Profit 5.35 units
Bets advised by Twitter - bets advised in 12 races - 5 winners
Stakes 18.95
Profit 11.96 units
Overall UK & Int. for the month PROFIT 17.31
Overall total for the month PROFIT 29.00 units
The overall YTD figures at the end of September are:
Stakes 416.85
Profit 80.89 units
POT 19.41%
Away from the bets which obviously did very well this month I had my best month of the year playing on the "lay" side of the exchange so a month I'd like to be able to regularly repeat. It's a shame that the numbers fell a bit short for what was to be the first month of the private service as it would have been off to a bonanza start.
October was a shocker last year so hopefully this year I can get through it and have a positive result.
The Spring Carnival in Australia is in full swing now and it's "Arc" weekend in Paris so huge Saturday and Sunday ahead.
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 9 races - 1 winner (good overlay)
Stakes 8.40
Profit 0.70 units
Bets advised via Twitter - bets advised in 34 races - 7 winners
Stakes 35.55
Profit 10.99 units
Overall Australia for the month PROFIT 11.69 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 1.30
Profit 5.35 units
Bets advised by Twitter - bets advised in 12 races - 5 winners
Stakes 18.95
Profit 11.96 units
Overall UK & Int. for the month PROFIT 17.31
Overall total for the month PROFIT 29.00 units
The overall YTD figures at the end of September are:
Stakes 416.85
Profit 80.89 units
POT 19.41%
Away from the bets which obviously did very well this month I had my best month of the year playing on the "lay" side of the exchange so a month I'd like to be able to regularly repeat. It's a shame that the numbers fell a bit short for what was to be the first month of the private service as it would have been off to a bonanza start.
October was a shocker last year so hopefully this year I can get through it and have a positive result.
The Spring Carnival in Australia is in full swing now and it's "Arc" weekend in Paris so huge Saturday and Sunday ahead.
Saturday 27 September 2014
Caulfield (G1 Sir Rupert Clarke) & Warwick Farm Today
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's been watered in the last 24 hours contrary to what was made public earlier. Probably starts a genuine Good 3.
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast ground.
Caulfield has a terrific card highlighted by the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke over 1400m. It's great racing but apart from the Caulfield Guineas Prelude ( R6) it's an almost impossible card. Sportsbet put up markets at around 102% for an hour this morning and I still couln't find anything that I wanted to back. A lot of these markets will open up a fair bit during the afternoon and some value possibilities may emerge but realistically it looks a very tough day.
With so much racing this weekend I still haven't quite finished looking at the Warwick Farm meeting so if there is anything there it'll be sent via Twitter.
Anyone following on Twitter this month would be having a very good month although I accept it's not the ideal medium for getting info out and some of the tweets are easy to miss if your busy.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast ground.
Caulfield has a terrific card highlighted by the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke over 1400m. It's great racing but apart from the Caulfield Guineas Prelude ( R6) it's an almost impossible card. Sportsbet put up markets at around 102% for an hour this morning and I still couln't find anything that I wanted to back. A lot of these markets will open up a fair bit during the afternoon and some value possibilities may emerge but realistically it looks a very tough day.
With so much racing this weekend I still haven't quite finished looking at the Warwick Farm meeting so if there is anything there it'll be sent via Twitter.
Anyone following on Twitter this month would be having a very good month although I accept it's not the ideal medium for getting info out and some of the tweets are easy to miss if your busy.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Friday 26 September 2014
Sandown & Rosehill Today
Sandown is posted a Dead 4. It's dry there but William Hernan reported there was a good deal of give in the surface this morning so it may upgrade but isn't certain to do so.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and it's dry.
With the AFL Grand Final on today the Sandown card is midweek prize money bar race 6. Despite that it's a terrific card and there are sure to be opportunities as markets open up.
Rosehill is less appealing betting wise although there may be a couple of interest later on.
No early bets at this stage though.
Bets /Updates sent via Twitter
Rosehill is a Good 3 and it's dry.
With the AFL Grand Final on today the Sandown card is midweek prize money bar race 6. Despite that it's a terrific card and there are sure to be opportunities as markets open up.
Rosehill is less appealing betting wise although there may be a couple of interest later on.
No early bets at this stage though.
Bets /Updates sent via Twitter
Moonee Valley (G1 Moir plus 4 other Group races) Tonight
Very good racing at Moonee Valley tonight with 5 group races including the G1 Moir stakes.
The track is posted a Dead 4 but with a strong chance of an upgrade.
No early bets tonight but a few possibilities if markets open up a little.
It's a massive weekend and I'm very pushed for time-family dramas over the last two days are the last thing I need at such busy time.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
The track is posted a Dead 4 but with a strong chance of an upgrade.
No early bets tonight but a few possibilities if markets open up a little.
It's a massive weekend and I'm very pushed for time-family dramas over the last two days are the last thing I need at such busy time.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 23 September 2014
Bendigo & Canterbury Today
Bendigo is a Dead 4 and there are showers around there now and more due. You'll have to monitor conditions there as Sam Hyland reported the surface as worn and patchy this morning.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's dry so fast conditions there.
Canterbury
Race 6
Pythagorean draws awkwardly but the ones I have going forward here are in wide gates so hopefully he can follow them across and find an OK position. On his UK form he's got lengths on these although there are a couple of negatives to bear in mind. On a positive note his Aussie debut was good on wet ground (fast ground suits better) and he looked a live hope at the 300m before lack of condition told late. He's run really well in high class UK handicaps at big meetings and a NMW midweeker should be a walk in the park. The negatives are the awkward draw as already mentioned, the fact he was something of a "bookies horse " (perennialy unlucky) and he never went beyond 1400m in the UK (bred to get this trip and further). The other Waller import Campanology also has very solid UK and Irish form for a race like this and I be inclined to follow any market support for him here too. No sign of any money for him at this stage.
Advised Bet: Pythagorean 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.50 with Tatts for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Bendigo
Race 6
The two coming from maiden grade Fluorescent and The Golden Pig both have more to offer which is not the case with the rest of this field. I've already advised The Golden Pig via Twitter at 13.0 which is overs although he's not entirely certain to get 2400m. I'm happy at this stage with that bet and with the chance that conditions may be wet by now will rest there are this stage.The 13.0 is still there so I'll list this as a bet in the blog.
Advised Bet: The Golden Pig 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 with Bet 365 with the SP and Tote guarantees.
Races 7 and 8 are interesting but track conditions are crucial to anything I want to do there so I'll advise via Twitter
As usual Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's dry so fast conditions there.
Canterbury
Race 6
Pythagorean draws awkwardly but the ones I have going forward here are in wide gates so hopefully he can follow them across and find an OK position. On his UK form he's got lengths on these although there are a couple of negatives to bear in mind. On a positive note his Aussie debut was good on wet ground (fast ground suits better) and he looked a live hope at the 300m before lack of condition told late. He's run really well in high class UK handicaps at big meetings and a NMW midweeker should be a walk in the park. The negatives are the awkward draw as already mentioned, the fact he was something of a "bookies horse " (perennialy unlucky) and he never went beyond 1400m in the UK (bred to get this trip and further). The other Waller import Campanology also has very solid UK and Irish form for a race like this and I be inclined to follow any market support for him here too. No sign of any money for him at this stage.
Advised Bet: Pythagorean 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.50 with Tatts for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Bendigo
Race 6
The two coming from maiden grade Fluorescent and The Golden Pig both have more to offer which is not the case with the rest of this field. I've already advised The Golden Pig via Twitter at 13.0 which is overs although he's not entirely certain to get 2400m. I'm happy at this stage with that bet and with the chance that conditions may be wet by now will rest there are this stage.The 13.0 is still there so I'll list this as a bet in the blog.
Advised Bet: The Golden Pig 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 with Bet 365 with the SP and Tote guarantees.
Races 7 and 8 are interesting but track conditions are crucial to anything I want to do there so I'll advise via Twitter
As usual Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing
Sunday 21 September 2014
Last Weeks Round Up & YTD Figures
A very quiet week with limited opportunities and some very tricky racing. Only 6 bets advised all week and all sent via Twitter. Here are the figures:
Australia
Bets advised in the Blog - None
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 4 races - 1 winner
Stakes 4.30
Profit 1.55 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog- None
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 3.20
Profit 3.42 units
Overall for the week Profit 4.97 units
Year To Date Figures:
Stakes 406.50
Profit 73.58 units
POT 18.10%
Midweek is very quiet this week with no Metro meeting in Victoria on Wednesday. Night racing returns to the Valley on Friday and the premier Melbourne meeting is on Sunday this week. In the UK (it still exists but it's wobbling!) the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting starts on Thursday. So early part of the week is pretty dull and then a frantic weekend in prospect.
Australia
Bets advised in the Blog - None
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 4 races - 1 winner
Stakes 4.30
Profit 1.55 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog- None
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes 3.20
Profit 3.42 units
Overall for the week Profit 4.97 units
Year To Date Figures:
Stakes 406.50
Profit 73.58 units
POT 18.10%
Midweek is very quiet this week with no Metro meeting in Victoria on Wednesday. Night racing returns to the Valley on Friday and the premier Melbourne meeting is on Sunday this week. In the UK (it still exists but it's wobbling!) the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting starts on Thursday. So early part of the week is pretty dull and then a frantic weekend in prospect.
Friday 19 September 2014
Caulfield ( Underwood Stakes) & Randwick (George Main Stakes)
Both venues host G1's today and the Spring is in full flow now.
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's generally dry but still an odd shower around but clearing-expect fast conditions.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and drying out.An upgrade seems likely at some stage.Later rain is forecast bur probably doesn't reach the track till racing is over.
This is a very tricky day in my opinion. Some obvious chances but no value in them
Caulfield
Race 1
Don't want to oppose Zeletto but 1.70 is very short
Race 2
Too tricky to evaluate with any confidence
Race 3
Anatina is the obvious if she can carry last prep's improvement through into this one. Generally I'm very reluctant to take shorts about mares resuming. Rifleman has improved this prep. Kencella's first try in Melbourne was a let down at the Valley but if he bounces back from that he's a live hope here.
It doesn't end there and very easy to pass here.
Race 4
Watch and learn
Race 5
Mares handicap and many hopes. Good luck
Race 6
Spillway is a likable horse but he has to concede weight all round here and I'm not at all sure that he is the best horse here. Most will be giving it their best shot as none of them currently rate high enough to guarantee a Caulfield Cup start. Bonfire developed a bad reputation in England as a bookies horse and there is a inkling he may be better with cut in the ground.Foundry is better than his two woeful efforts this Spring and a return to form wouldn't entirely surprise. Our Voodoo Prince promises to be a better horse here than he was in the UK.He's on track for a big run today. Entirely Platinum isn't really a wet tracker and there is definitely more to come from him.
May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 7
Silent Achiever is better than these clearly on achievements to date. Doubt she's be penalised in the Caulfield Cup if she won here as she is well on top on official figures.Will she be fit enough today is the question you have to consider. Maybe but probably not at the top of her game. Foreteller and Happy Trials are likely to be just about ready now and both can win. Stipulate need to improve again to be competitive at this grade. His win last time was excellent and he traveled very strongly throughout in that race suggesting there is more to come.
May do something here but not committed yet
Race 8
Very hard to evaluate with any real confidence other than to say that Samaready back to her best would be winning. Real market confidence would have here around 3.00. She's 4.40 into 4.0 this morning but that's not really anything overly strong at this stage.
Passing here
Race 9
Trust In a Gust is an admirable racehorse. Very genuine and consistent. He's hard to beat here but 2.20 is unders. Cauthen did beat both Shamus Award and Long John last Spring and he only has a mark of 82 although effectively he has to race off 89 today. Lucky Husstler ran very well on his first start for D. Weir last time. Pin Your Hopes resumes after a very good prep last time
Maybe a bet here
Randwick
The first two favs Black Revolver and Rock Sturdy both look unders to me at current2.15 and 2.50 respectively. there may be a couple of speculative bets here later on. Overall it looks a difficult card.
Bets and Updates sent via Twitter
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's generally dry but still an odd shower around but clearing-expect fast conditions.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and drying out.An upgrade seems likely at some stage.Later rain is forecast bur probably doesn't reach the track till racing is over.
This is a very tricky day in my opinion. Some obvious chances but no value in them
Caulfield
Race 1
Don't want to oppose Zeletto but 1.70 is very short
Race 2
Too tricky to evaluate with any confidence
Race 3
Anatina is the obvious if she can carry last prep's improvement through into this one. Generally I'm very reluctant to take shorts about mares resuming. Rifleman has improved this prep. Kencella's first try in Melbourne was a let down at the Valley but if he bounces back from that he's a live hope here.
It doesn't end there and very easy to pass here.
Race 4
Watch and learn
Race 5
Mares handicap and many hopes. Good luck
Race 6
Spillway is a likable horse but he has to concede weight all round here and I'm not at all sure that he is the best horse here. Most will be giving it their best shot as none of them currently rate high enough to guarantee a Caulfield Cup start. Bonfire developed a bad reputation in England as a bookies horse and there is a inkling he may be better with cut in the ground.Foundry is better than his two woeful efforts this Spring and a return to form wouldn't entirely surprise. Our Voodoo Prince promises to be a better horse here than he was in the UK.He's on track for a big run today. Entirely Platinum isn't really a wet tracker and there is definitely more to come from him.
May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 7
Silent Achiever is better than these clearly on achievements to date. Doubt she's be penalised in the Caulfield Cup if she won here as she is well on top on official figures.Will she be fit enough today is the question you have to consider. Maybe but probably not at the top of her game. Foreteller and Happy Trials are likely to be just about ready now and both can win. Stipulate need to improve again to be competitive at this grade. His win last time was excellent and he traveled very strongly throughout in that race suggesting there is more to come.
May do something here but not committed yet
Race 8
Very hard to evaluate with any real confidence other than to say that Samaready back to her best would be winning. Real market confidence would have here around 3.00. She's 4.40 into 4.0 this morning but that's not really anything overly strong at this stage.
Passing here
Race 9
Trust In a Gust is an admirable racehorse. Very genuine and consistent. He's hard to beat here but 2.20 is unders. Cauthen did beat both Shamus Award and Long John last Spring and he only has a mark of 82 although effectively he has to race off 89 today. Lucky Husstler ran very well on his first start for D. Weir last time. Pin Your Hopes resumes after a very good prep last time
Maybe a bet here
Randwick
The first two favs Black Revolver and Rock Sturdy both look unders to me at current2.15 and 2.50 respectively. there may be a couple of speculative bets here later on. Overall it looks a difficult card.
Bets and Updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 16 September 2014
Mornington & Newcastle Today
Metro meeting at Morninton and it's posted a Dead 4 with showers now around. how much rain they bring to the track is not easy to predict and it was a dry morning there until an hour or so ago. I'm making no commitment to anything there today until I see what the ground and the pattern is.
Newcastle has it's first day of it's two day Spring Carnival and in truth it's a pretty lacklustre offering.
It's posted a Dead 4 there but it's dry so an upgrade should happen at some point. The two feature events are the two Group 3's the Spring Stakes and the Cameron Handicap. I cannot personally remember either of these races looking as weak as they do today.
Just the one early bet there at speculative odds:
Newcastle
Race 7
The Autumn equivalent of this race is the Newmarket handicap run over coarse and distance at the track's Autumn Carnival. Slow Pace was first up in that race back in March and ran a fine race finishing third beaten half a length.That was a stronger race than this is and a similar run will see him around the money here. He's had a quiet trial again just like before his effort in the Newmarket. Bowman rides and hopefully he can be a little closer to the speed today. 16.0 (longer on the totes) is big overs in a race that is not easy to price up with any degree of confidence.
I'll stake him as a 9.0 chance.
Advised Bet: Slow Pace 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Bet 365 with the tote guarantees for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Doubt there will be more bets at Newcastle but there are races of definite interest at Mornington depending on track conditions and how markets move. Further bets and updates sent via Twitter
Newcastle has it's first day of it's two day Spring Carnival and in truth it's a pretty lacklustre offering.
It's posted a Dead 4 there but it's dry so an upgrade should happen at some point. The two feature events are the two Group 3's the Spring Stakes and the Cameron Handicap. I cannot personally remember either of these races looking as weak as they do today.
Just the one early bet there at speculative odds:
Newcastle
Race 7
The Autumn equivalent of this race is the Newmarket handicap run over coarse and distance at the track's Autumn Carnival. Slow Pace was first up in that race back in March and ran a fine race finishing third beaten half a length.That was a stronger race than this is and a similar run will see him around the money here. He's had a quiet trial again just like before his effort in the Newmarket. Bowman rides and hopefully he can be a little closer to the speed today. 16.0 (longer on the totes) is big overs in a race that is not easy to price up with any degree of confidence.
I'll stake him as a 9.0 chance.
Advised Bet: Slow Pace 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Bet 365 with the tote guarantees for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Doubt there will be more bets at Newcastle but there are races of definite interest at Mornington depending on track conditions and how markets move. Further bets and updates sent via Twitter
Last Week's Round Up and YTD Figures
In the red last week but no great damage done. It's been a struggle getting the blog out over the last weekend with me being constantly short of time so apologies everything was so brief.
Here are last week's figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 2 races- no winners
Stakes 2.50
Loss 2.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets advised in 12 races - 1 winner
Stakes 9.60
Loss 3.90 units
Australian total for the week Loss 6.40
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - Bets advised in 1 race- no winners
Stakes 0.65
Loss 0.65 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets advised in 8 races- 3 winners
Stakes 13.10
Profit 3.76 units
UK & Int. for the week Profit 3.11
Overall for last week LOSS 3.09 units
YTD overall
Stakes 398.90
PROFIT 68.61
POT 17.20%
Here are last week's figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 2 races- no winners
Stakes 2.50
Loss 2.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets advised in 12 races - 1 winner
Stakes 9.60
Loss 3.90 units
Australian total for the week Loss 6.40
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - Bets advised in 1 race- no winners
Stakes 0.65
Loss 0.65 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets advised in 8 races- 3 winners
Stakes 13.10
Profit 3.76 units
UK & Int. for the week Profit 3.11
Overall for last week LOSS 3.09 units
YTD overall
Stakes 398.90
PROFIT 68.61
POT 17.20%
Sunday 14 September 2014
Super Sunday Action from Longchamp & The Curragh
Outstanding cards at both Longchamp (Good and Dry) & The Curragh (Good to Firm and Dry)
The blog has been low on content this weekend and that trend continues today unfortunately with me very pushed for time.
I'll try to put some info into the Tweets as racing gets underway. There will definitely be bets today sent via Twitter along with Updates
The blog has been low on content this weekend and that trend continues today unfortunately with me very pushed for time.
I'll try to put some info into the Tweets as racing gets underway. There will definitely be bets today sent via Twitter along with Updates
Saturday 13 September 2014
Doncaster Leger Meeting -Day Four
Leger day at Doncaster.
There still posting Good to Soft ,Good in places on the Round course-Good, Good to Firm in places on the Straight course. Dry weather forecast.
I've not finalized my ratings for today. There are a handful of possibilities but not committed at this stage.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Sorry the blog is light on analysis this weekend but I'm very tight for time.
There still posting Good to Soft ,Good in places on the Round course-Good, Good to Firm in places on the Straight course. Dry weather forecast.
I've not finalized my ratings for today. There are a handful of possibilities but not committed at this stage.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Sorry the blog is light on analysis this weekend but I'm very tight for time.
Friday 12 September 2014
Flemington (Makybe Diva) & Rosehill (Golden Rose) Today
Flemington is a Good 3 and Rosehill a Dead 5. It's generally dry now at both venues and there is a possibility Rosehill could upgrade later in the day.
I lost 5 hours yesterday without internet so I'm still playing catch up so this has to be brief today.
There is already one bet out there on Twitter at huge odds and it's very speculative but sound I think.
A word of caution -going in to today there are 9 more Saturdays to go before the last day of the Flemington carnival-lots of quality horses on show but their main targets are ahead of them in many cases.
Have to rely on Twitter today for Bets and Updates
I lost 5 hours yesterday without internet so I'm still playing catch up so this has to be brief today.
There is already one bet out there on Twitter at huge odds and it's very speculative but sound I think.
A word of caution -going in to today there are 9 more Saturdays to go before the last day of the Flemington carnival-lots of quality horses on show but their main targets are ahead of them in many cases.
Have to rely on Twitter today for Bets and Updates
Doncaster Leger Meeting - Day Three
Amazingly it's still officially Good to Soft on the Round Course with Good places. It's been dry all week and I'm working on Good ground allover.
No internet access for a few hours earlier today at my place with a fault on the line that took an age to repair. The good news is it's back for the weekend the bad is that I'm way behind as a result.
Can't help you with anything early today and any bets today will be sent via twitter. There are a few of interest today but I'm not committed to anything at this stage.
No internet access for a few hours earlier today at my place with a fault on the line that took an age to repair. The good news is it's back for the weekend the bad is that I'm way behind as a result.
Can't help you with anything early today and any bets today will be sent via twitter. There are a few of interest today but I'm not committed to anything at this stage.
Thursday 11 September 2014
Doncaster Leger Meeting - Day Two
It's been dry overnight at Doncaster and it was dry yesterday so for there to be any deadness in the ground (Good to Soft in places on the Round Course) suggests they were a bit zealous with the watering. Dry weather so it should be Good or better by the time racing gets underway.
Much better today after yesterday's tepid start.
Race 2
Bragging demolished her rivals at York and she already rates as a group class filly and I doubt she has stopped improving yet. This is a stern test for her but I have her a rock solid 3.0 chance here. J Wonder and Token Of Love are feared most. I tweeted Bragging through a few hours ago and there was 4.20 offered in one place.The advised bet was 1.75 units at 3.20 or better.She's 3.50 now and probably starts a tad shorter. This will be logged as a bet advised via Twitter
Race 8
Bajan Bear has kept improving through the Summer with his only blot being on wet ground. He did well from a poor draw last time and he's worth an interest in an open race.
Advised Bet: Bajan Bear 0.65 units at 8.0 or better- monitor on Betfair currently 10.0 plus
There may be more later and further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Much better today after yesterday's tepid start.
Race 2
Bragging demolished her rivals at York and she already rates as a group class filly and I doubt she has stopped improving yet. This is a stern test for her but I have her a rock solid 3.0 chance here. J Wonder and Token Of Love are feared most. I tweeted Bragging through a few hours ago and there was 4.20 offered in one place.The advised bet was 1.75 units at 3.20 or better.She's 3.50 now and probably starts a tad shorter. This will be logged as a bet advised via Twitter
Race 8
Bajan Bear has kept improving through the Summer with his only blot being on wet ground. He did well from a poor draw last time and he's worth an interest in an open race.
Advised Bet: Bajan Bear 0.65 units at 8.0 or better- monitor on Betfair currently 10.0 plus
There may be more later and further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Wednesday 10 September 2014
Doncaster St Leger Meeting - Day One
Good to Soft with Good places is posted for day one of the Leger meeting.Expect it generally to dry out to Good during the day and with a fair dry week ahead it should be fast racing ground as the week goes on.
Today's racing makes very little appeal bets wise and I doubt I'll be backing anything.A few look obvious on form but they are not without negatives and are generally a bit short.
Hopefully things will pick up as the week progresses but it's a bit of a lacklustre start to the meeting.
Any bets (unlikely) /updates sent via Twitter
Today's racing makes very little appeal bets wise and I doubt I'll be backing anything.A few look obvious on form but they are not without negatives and are generally a bit short.
Hopefully things will pick up as the week progresses but it's a bit of a lacklustre start to the meeting.
Any bets (unlikely) /updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 9 September 2014
Bendigo & Warwick Farm Today
Bendigo is a Dead 4 and it's dry and an upgrade may be a possibility.
Warwick Farm had plenty of rain overnight and is a Heavy 8.The rain seems to have cleared now so it's just a question of how accurate that 8 rating is. Doubt it will deteriorate further as no more rain seems likely.
Two early bets today have both already been sent via Twitter but the prices are still there .
Bendigo
Race 5
Churchill Express and Melting Moments seem the two most likely here. Although dropping back a 100m may not be ideal for Churchill Express at 6.50 he's way overs. I'm always a little wary when mares are resuming but concede Melting Moments will be tough to beat if turning up fully fit and in form.
Advised Bet: Churchill Express 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365 with the guarantees they offer.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Waller runs four here and they take out about 60% plus of the market on early figures. That gives up some value looking elsewhere and the two I like are Lucky Liason who comes here off the back of a fine effort when almost landing the Cup at Taree, likes the wet and has won here over this trip and his rider gets to claim 3kg's here and, Miss Venus who will be fully fit now and has a 2200m win here last prep to her credit,ran well in the wet last time and again has the 3kg claim.
Advised Bets: Lucky Liason 0.75 units at 6.80 or better-take the 8.0 (WG) at Bet 365
Miss Venus 0.65 at 8.0 or better-take the 11.0 (WG) at Bet365
Further bets updates sent via Twitter.
St Leger meeting at Doncaster gets underway later today and there will be another blog out for that.
Warwick Farm had plenty of rain overnight and is a Heavy 8.The rain seems to have cleared now so it's just a question of how accurate that 8 rating is. Doubt it will deteriorate further as no more rain seems likely.
Two early bets today have both already been sent via Twitter but the prices are still there .
Bendigo
Race 5
Churchill Express and Melting Moments seem the two most likely here. Although dropping back a 100m may not be ideal for Churchill Express at 6.50 he's way overs. I'm always a little wary when mares are resuming but concede Melting Moments will be tough to beat if turning up fully fit and in form.
Advised Bet: Churchill Express 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365 with the guarantees they offer.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Waller runs four here and they take out about 60% plus of the market on early figures. That gives up some value looking elsewhere and the two I like are Lucky Liason who comes here off the back of a fine effort when almost landing the Cup at Taree, likes the wet and has won here over this trip and his rider gets to claim 3kg's here and, Miss Venus who will be fully fit now and has a 2200m win here last prep to her credit,ran well in the wet last time and again has the 3kg claim.
Advised Bets: Lucky Liason 0.75 units at 6.80 or better-take the 8.0 (WG) at Bet 365
Miss Venus 0.65 at 8.0 or better-take the 11.0 (WG) at Bet365
Further bets updates sent via Twitter.
St Leger meeting at Doncaster gets underway later today and there will be another blog out for that.
Sunday 7 September 2014
Weekly Round Up and YTD Figures
Decent week to kick start September. Here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 4 races - No winners
Stakes 3.50
Loss 3.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 10 races -2 winners
Stakes 10.85
Profit 6.48 units
Weekly total for Australia Profit 2.98 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog -Bets in 1 race - 1 winner
Stakes 0.75
Profit 6.00 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets in 2 races - 1winner
Stakes 2.65
Profit 4.78 units
Weekly total for UK Profit 10.78 units
Overall total for the week 13.76 units.
The combined figures for blogs and tweets for the year to date are Stakes 373.05, Profit 71.70 units for POT of 19.22%.
After advising that the numbers were too low to start the planned "private service " last week I had a few emails from people saying they wanted to come on board. Unfortunately it's too late now for this year but if you have already contacted me then you should have had a reply explaining that things were not going ahead as the numbers were not big enough. I'll put the idea on hold now until January as I am relocating at the end of the year and want to get that out of the way first. If you made contact already then you'll be first in line but anyone else who is interested should email me their interest. I won't ever take more than 30 otherwise there are too many people chasing too little but do need at least 15 to begin. I can't do it properly without some help during racing and they have to be paid obviously.
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 4 races - No winners
Stakes 3.50
Loss 3.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 10 races -2 winners
Stakes 10.85
Profit 6.48 units
Weekly total for Australia Profit 2.98 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog -Bets in 1 race - 1 winner
Stakes 0.75
Profit 6.00 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets in 2 races - 1winner
Stakes 2.65
Profit 4.78 units
Weekly total for UK Profit 10.78 units
Overall total for the week 13.76 units.
The combined figures for blogs and tweets for the year to date are Stakes 373.05, Profit 71.70 units for POT of 19.22%.
After advising that the numbers were too low to start the planned "private service " last week I had a few emails from people saying they wanted to come on board. Unfortunately it's too late now for this year but if you have already contacted me then you should have had a reply explaining that things were not going ahead as the numbers were not big enough. I'll put the idea on hold now until January as I am relocating at the end of the year and want to get that out of the way first. If you made contact already then you'll be first in line but anyone else who is interested should email me their interest. I won't ever take more than 30 otherwise there are too many people chasing too little but do need at least 15 to begin. I can't do it properly without some help during racing and they have to be paid obviously.
Saturday 6 September 2014
Saturday's UK Racing
A few possibilities today but just the one early bet:
Ascot
Race 1
Good handicap but both Safety Check and Cornrow look capable of better. At the current odds Safety Check makes most appeal especially with a handy 5lb claimer aboard.May save or more on Cornrow if the price get's out a little. Will advise via Twitter later
Advised Bet: Safety Check 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
There won't be a lot today but there almost certainly will be more.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Recovering from a poor week health wise so apologies for today's blogs being brief
Ascot
Race 1
Good handicap but both Safety Check and Cornrow look capable of better. At the current odds Safety Check makes most appeal especially with a handy 5lb claimer aboard.May save or more on Cornrow if the price get's out a little. Will advise via Twitter later
Advised Bet: Safety Check 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
There won't be a lot today but there almost certainly will be more.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Recovering from a poor week health wise so apologies for today's blogs being brief
Friday 5 September 2014
Moonee Valley & Randwick Today
Moonee Valley is a Good 3 and dry so expect decent racing ground there.
Randwick is down to a Heavy 9 after being deluged this morning-it may be or get worse so monitor conditions.
Very unwell this week but much better today but short on time so the blog has to be brief.
One race I've played in early
Randwick R8
Rock Sturdy is a worthy favourite but far too short in these conditions.Corryvrekan and Supreme Warrior are hardened battlers proven in these conditions and both are solid value here. This has already gone out by twitter as an early bet: 0.65 units Corryvreckan -take 9.0 with Luxbet (now gone) and 0.55 units Supreme Warrior -take the 19.0 with Bet365 still available. Will be recorded as a bet sent via Twitter for record keeping purposes.
There will be more today I'm sure sent via twitter and I'll try to find time for a UK blog covering the good racing there later today
Randwick is down to a Heavy 9 after being deluged this morning-it may be or get worse so monitor conditions.
Very unwell this week but much better today but short on time so the blog has to be brief.
One race I've played in early
Randwick R8
Rock Sturdy is a worthy favourite but far too short in these conditions.Corryvrekan and Supreme Warrior are hardened battlers proven in these conditions and both are solid value here. This has already gone out by twitter as an early bet: 0.65 units Corryvreckan -take 9.0 with Luxbet (now gone) and 0.55 units Supreme Warrior -take the 19.0 with Bet365 still available. Will be recorded as a bet sent via Twitter for record keeping purposes.
There will be more today I'm sure sent via twitter and I'll try to find time for a UK blog covering the good racing there later today
Tuesday 2 September 2014
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Sandown is a Dead 5 and improving so there's a fair chance that it will upgrade.
Canterbury is a Slow 7 and it's missed the rain this morning but there is some working up from the South. If the rain misses it's very windy so it should dry out a fair bit but if the rain does hit then maybe it'll stay wet.Obviously monitor. Strong winds may be a factor too.
Canterbury R4
I'm right out of step with the market here. I have Nordic Duke at 7.0 MAX here yet he's available with Bet365 at 17.0. He's travelled up from Melbourne so maybe there is a negative attached to the journey. He's a point higher than when he last won and most subsequent efforts have been sound. There should be OK speed on upfront here to help him get home, he likes the wet and has a handy 3kg's claimer aboard
Advised Bet; Nordic Duke 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-take the 17.0
There may be more at Canterbury later via twitter
Sandown
Race 4
I like Zeletto and he'll be hard to beat.I also like Farolitos enough to stop me taking a thin price about Zeletto although a 1000m might be a bit sharp for him.
Does anyone have a rational explanation why an unraced horse can debut in a handicap with anything other than top weight? Hammered has had no trials or runs yet he's allotted 55.5 kg's.It's a benchmark 70. This is nonsense. It happened last year when a filly trained by Danny O'brien debued in a Saturday handicap of a low weight and beat the favourite. Surely if you want to bypass the maidens and go to a handicap untried you must get top weight. Greg Carpenter please explain!
Race 6
After the way he's gone over the last year I get wary thinking that one of D.K. Weir's is too short but despite Must Be Mink having solid claims here 3.40 is too short. Much more appealing is Elle Excite who won really well at Mornington and was well backed to do so. The extra 200m will suit her.The last win was on wet but she's proven on drier and has a nice gate. She has upside and I have her on top marginally here. 7.50 looks big overs but she's blown a bit this morning and is bigger on the totes.
Advised Bet: Elle Excite 1 unit at 5.50 or over- have 35% at the 7.50 and monitor closely with the balance.
Race 7
Yesterday's Songs is very obvious here and if all goes well in the run he'll be very hard to beat. I don't like gate 1 for get back horses though and he will need a good steer. At 2.50 I won't be playing.Mahican draws to be handier today and he's the other obvious hope.
When Fracking won his UK maiden he bolted up by 5 lengths. The runner up (was level weights) now races of a UK mark of 88 (translates to Aussie scale around 77). Here's Fracking of a mark of 67.
He made all at Goodwood that day and from gate 3 could lead here. If he's fit and ready he's overs here at 21.0
Advised Bet: Fracking 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 21.0 with Bet365 as they have guarantees if it blows (best tote)
Race 8
Most of these are out for first up effort getting fitter for further. The 3 that look suited and are fit are Digitalism, Longeron and St Mark. By far the most appealing of that trio is Digitalism and he's a solid pecentage bet here. The other one that is interesting at odds is Martinvast who should push on from a wide gate.
Advised Bet Digitalism 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-take the 5.0 with 365
Martinvast 0.30 units at 19.0 or better-take the 34.0 with 365
Canterbury is a Slow 7 and it's missed the rain this morning but there is some working up from the South. If the rain misses it's very windy so it should dry out a fair bit but if the rain does hit then maybe it'll stay wet.Obviously monitor. Strong winds may be a factor too.
Canterbury R4
I'm right out of step with the market here. I have Nordic Duke at 7.0 MAX here yet he's available with Bet365 at 17.0. He's travelled up from Melbourne so maybe there is a negative attached to the journey. He's a point higher than when he last won and most subsequent efforts have been sound. There should be OK speed on upfront here to help him get home, he likes the wet and has a handy 3kg's claimer aboard
Advised Bet; Nordic Duke 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-take the 17.0
There may be more at Canterbury later via twitter
Sandown
Race 4
I like Zeletto and he'll be hard to beat.I also like Farolitos enough to stop me taking a thin price about Zeletto although a 1000m might be a bit sharp for him.
Does anyone have a rational explanation why an unraced horse can debut in a handicap with anything other than top weight? Hammered has had no trials or runs yet he's allotted 55.5 kg's.It's a benchmark 70. This is nonsense. It happened last year when a filly trained by Danny O'brien debued in a Saturday handicap of a low weight and beat the favourite. Surely if you want to bypass the maidens and go to a handicap untried you must get top weight. Greg Carpenter please explain!
Race 6
After the way he's gone over the last year I get wary thinking that one of D.K. Weir's is too short but despite Must Be Mink having solid claims here 3.40 is too short. Much more appealing is Elle Excite who won really well at Mornington and was well backed to do so. The extra 200m will suit her.The last win was on wet but she's proven on drier and has a nice gate. She has upside and I have her on top marginally here. 7.50 looks big overs but she's blown a bit this morning and is bigger on the totes.
Advised Bet: Elle Excite 1 unit at 5.50 or over- have 35% at the 7.50 and monitor closely with the balance.
Race 7
Yesterday's Songs is very obvious here and if all goes well in the run he'll be very hard to beat. I don't like gate 1 for get back horses though and he will need a good steer. At 2.50 I won't be playing.Mahican draws to be handier today and he's the other obvious hope.
When Fracking won his UK maiden he bolted up by 5 lengths. The runner up (was level weights) now races of a UK mark of 88 (translates to Aussie scale around 77). Here's Fracking of a mark of 67.
He made all at Goodwood that day and from gate 3 could lead here. If he's fit and ready he's overs here at 21.0
Advised Bet: Fracking 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 21.0 with Bet365 as they have guarantees if it blows (best tote)
Race 8
Most of these are out for first up effort getting fitter for further. The 3 that look suited and are fit are Digitalism, Longeron and St Mark. By far the most appealing of that trio is Digitalism and he's a solid pecentage bet here. The other one that is interesting at odds is Martinvast who should push on from a wide gate.
Advised Bet Digitalism 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-take the 5.0 with 365
Martinvast 0.30 units at 19.0 or better-take the 34.0 with 365
Sunday 31 August 2014
August Round Up & YTD Figures
August started OK then went sour for a couple of weeks but finished off well. A roller coaster month but a decent one in the end. Here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 13 races - 4 winners
Stakes 14.55
Profit 15.05 units
Bets advised via Twitter- Bets in 27 races - 5 winners
Stakes 37.15
Loss 4.75 units
Australia total for month PROFIT 10.30 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 7 races - 1 winner
Stakes 7.60
Loss 1.30 units
Bets advised via Twitter- Bets in 9 races - 3 winners
Stakes 11.65
Profit 5.98 units
UK & Int. total for month PROFIT 4.68 units
Overall total for the month PROFIT 14.98 units
We are two thirds through the year now with the next 10 weeks the busiest of the year. So far the collective figures for the year to date (blogs and tweets combined) are Stakes 355.30 PROFIT 57.94 which is a POT of 16.30%. If I marked the prices of the winners the way a lot of ratings agencies do the winnings would be greatly inflated. I try to record the price that is fair determined by the time the bet was advised and what is available then and the instructions sent with the bet.
It's around two years now since I started the blog and during that time I have had a lot of emails asking if I would start up a private service. I had planned to begin it this month with a ceiling cap of 30 members. I didn't expect to get the full quota of 30 initially but I did need around 15 to make it a worthwhile venture.So far I have had expressions of interest from 12 people and that doesn't mean all 12 will take the plunge and come on board so there simply isn't enough interest to make it worthwhile proceeding at this stage.
The figures throughout the couple of years since I started this blog have been excellent and anyone following on a regular basis could have no complaints but it is time consuming to produce and I'm undecided at the moment whether to continue or not.
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 13 races - 4 winners
Stakes 14.55
Profit 15.05 units
Bets advised via Twitter- Bets in 27 races - 5 winners
Stakes 37.15
Loss 4.75 units
Australia total for month PROFIT 10.30 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 7 races - 1 winner
Stakes 7.60
Loss 1.30 units
Bets advised via Twitter- Bets in 9 races - 3 winners
Stakes 11.65
Profit 5.98 units
UK & Int. total for month PROFIT 4.68 units
Overall total for the month PROFIT 14.98 units
We are two thirds through the year now with the next 10 weeks the busiest of the year. So far the collective figures for the year to date (blogs and tweets combined) are Stakes 355.30 PROFIT 57.94 which is a POT of 16.30%. If I marked the prices of the winners the way a lot of ratings agencies do the winnings would be greatly inflated. I try to record the price that is fair determined by the time the bet was advised and what is available then and the instructions sent with the bet.
It's around two years now since I started the blog and during that time I have had a lot of emails asking if I would start up a private service. I had planned to begin it this month with a ceiling cap of 30 members. I didn't expect to get the full quota of 30 initially but I did need around 15 to make it a worthwhile venture.So far I have had expressions of interest from 12 people and that doesn't mean all 12 will take the plunge and come on board so there simply isn't enough interest to make it worthwhile proceeding at this stage.
The figures throughout the couple of years since I started this blog have been excellent and anyone following on a regular basis could have no complaints but it is time consuming to produce and I'm undecided at the moment whether to continue or not.
Saturday 30 August 2014
Saturday's UK Racing
Not the most exiting Saturday's racing of the season and decidedly tricky.
No early bets and whilst there may be bets later nothing greatly appeals at this stage.
If there is anything later I'll send it via Twitter.
Sorry the blog has been light today but there's nothing I can write about with any confidence at this point.
No early bets and whilst there may be bets later nothing greatly appeals at this stage.
If there is anything later I'll send it via Twitter.
Sorry the blog has been light today but there's nothing I can write about with any confidence at this point.
Friday 29 August 2014
Caulfield & Rosehill Today-G1 Racing returns
Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's dry. Memsie Stakes day there so good to see the first G1 of the new season.
Rosehill is a Heavy 8 and there are still light showers around but I don't think the track is any worse than the early morning assessment.
I haven't got involved in anything yet today but there are a few I'm interested in.
It's not an easy day and there seems no good reason to go off early about anything.
So a very light post today and all bets and updates sent via Twitter this afternoon.
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Those of you who have already contacted me about the private service should have received an email back from me acknowledging your interest. I will send payment details out at the end of this month and the service will have it's first operational day on Wednesday 4th September
Rosehill is a Heavy 8 and there are still light showers around but I don't think the track is any worse than the early morning assessment.
I haven't got involved in anything yet today but there are a few I'm interested in.
It's not an easy day and there seems no good reason to go off early about anything.
So a very light post today and all bets and updates sent via Twitter this afternoon.
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Those of you who have already contacted me about the private service should have received an email back from me acknowledging your interest. I will send payment details out at the end of this month and the service will have it's first operational day on Wednesday 4th September
Tuesday 26 August 2014
Sandown & Warwick Farm Today
Broke my front tooth last night so at the dentist this morning and everything late as a result. Missed some very tasty prices as a result.
I've already tweeted through a few early bets although I probably wish I hadn't as some are now longer.
Sandown is a Dead 4 upgraded from a Dead 5 and it's dry so another upgrade is possible as the day goes on.
Warwick Farm is a Heavy 10 and there is rain around so I suppose it's touch and go them getting through the meeting.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
If the meeting is still on by now then I think Eklands and Was Meant To Be are both overs at current quotes. I missed the best Eklands but 6.0 is still value against my rating of 5.0. Was Meant To Be has run well twice in city races recently and was particularly good of a wide run last time. He goes well in the wet and has a solid hope here-12.0 is overs
Advised Bet: Eklands 1 unit at 5.20 or better, 6.0 is still available and I think that will go
Was Meant To Be 0.60 units at 9.0 or better-some 12.0 available
Sandown
Race 5
This is very open but down at the bottom Forgeress is good value at a top priced 17.0 (was 26.0) earlier. Her best effort this prep (all runs have been good) was a strong finishing third at Caulfield on Dead surface in a better race than this. She acts on the wet but suspect she's a bit better on drier.
Advised Bet: Forgeress 0.45 units at 12.0 or better- take the 17.0
Race 6
I thought there were three strong hopes here in Belesron, Spencer Street and Vee Force . I have Belesron clearly on top though despite the other two having strong claims.Vee Force showed real talent early when with Simon Morrish but has obviously had problems and has landed with D. Weir down at the Wangoon stable. His first run for Weir was a real eyecatcher but he has looked mega promising before only to flop. Spencer Street probably still has a bit more to offer-he ran very well last time and the claim will help him today. Belesron was good here behind Olivier and then demolished the opposition last time. He has a 3kg claim too and of the 3 I thinks he's the most likely
Advised Bet: Belesron 1.35 units at 3.90 or better-already advised to take 5.0 but is now 6.50 with Bet 365 so maybe they know something that I don't!!
Race 7
Very open Mares race. Pindan Pearl has an obvious chance but too short at 3.50 I think. Lily Dazzler is going well and has been steady improver but her best form is on wet.Then acluster of half a dozen with claims including Abaleen who ran well last time and is suited by the extra 200m and gets a handy 3kg claim. Why this is such a big price escapes me but having advised it ew at 101.00 I'm a bit surprised to see it now at 126.0 with Bet365.It's massive overs
Advised Bet: Abaleen 0.20 units win and 0.30 units place at 17.0 or better. Was 101.00/23.00 at the time I tweeted with 365. Is now 126.00/26.0
All these will be logged as best advised in the blog but at the prices I sent through earlier.
Pretty sure there will be more today and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
I've already tweeted through a few early bets although I probably wish I hadn't as some are now longer.
Sandown is a Dead 4 upgraded from a Dead 5 and it's dry so another upgrade is possible as the day goes on.
Warwick Farm is a Heavy 10 and there is rain around so I suppose it's touch and go them getting through the meeting.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
If the meeting is still on by now then I think Eklands and Was Meant To Be are both overs at current quotes. I missed the best Eklands but 6.0 is still value against my rating of 5.0. Was Meant To Be has run well twice in city races recently and was particularly good of a wide run last time. He goes well in the wet and has a solid hope here-12.0 is overs
Advised Bet: Eklands 1 unit at 5.20 or better, 6.0 is still available and I think that will go
Was Meant To Be 0.60 units at 9.0 or better-some 12.0 available
Sandown
Race 5
This is very open but down at the bottom Forgeress is good value at a top priced 17.0 (was 26.0) earlier. Her best effort this prep (all runs have been good) was a strong finishing third at Caulfield on Dead surface in a better race than this. She acts on the wet but suspect she's a bit better on drier.
Advised Bet: Forgeress 0.45 units at 12.0 or better- take the 17.0
Race 6
I thought there were three strong hopes here in Belesron, Spencer Street and Vee Force . I have Belesron clearly on top though despite the other two having strong claims.Vee Force showed real talent early when with Simon Morrish but has obviously had problems and has landed with D. Weir down at the Wangoon stable. His first run for Weir was a real eyecatcher but he has looked mega promising before only to flop. Spencer Street probably still has a bit more to offer-he ran very well last time and the claim will help him today. Belesron was good here behind Olivier and then demolished the opposition last time. He has a 3kg claim too and of the 3 I thinks he's the most likely
Advised Bet: Belesron 1.35 units at 3.90 or better-already advised to take 5.0 but is now 6.50 with Bet 365 so maybe they know something that I don't!!
Race 7
Very open Mares race. Pindan Pearl has an obvious chance but too short at 3.50 I think. Lily Dazzler is going well and has been steady improver but her best form is on wet.Then acluster of half a dozen with claims including Abaleen who ran well last time and is suited by the extra 200m and gets a handy 3kg claim. Why this is such a big price escapes me but having advised it ew at 101.00 I'm a bit surprised to see it now at 126.0 with Bet365.It's massive overs
Advised Bet: Abaleen 0.20 units win and 0.30 units place at 17.0 or better. Was 101.00/23.00 at the time I tweeted with 365. Is now 126.00/26.0
All these will be logged as best advised in the blog but at the prices I sent through earlier.
Pretty sure there will be more today and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Sunday 24 August 2014
Weekly Round Up
Back in the black again last week. Here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 2.30
Profit 4.93 units
Bets advised via Twitter - 8 races - 1 winner
Stakes 11.65
Loss 3.40 units
Australia total for the week Profit 1.53 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - 3 races- 1 winner
Stakes 4.05
Profit 2.25 units
Bets advised via Twitter - 4 races - 2 winners
Stakes 6.25
Profit 4.98 units
UK total for the week Profit 7.23 units
Overall total for the week PROFIT 8.76 units
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Those of you who have already contacted me about the private service should have received an email back from me acknowledging your interest. I will send payment details out at the end of this month and the service will have it's first operational day on Wednesday 4th September
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- 2 races - 1 winner
Stakes 2.30
Profit 4.93 units
Bets advised via Twitter - 8 races - 1 winner
Stakes 11.65
Loss 3.40 units
Australia total for the week Profit 1.53 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog - 3 races- 1 winner
Stakes 4.05
Profit 2.25 units
Bets advised via Twitter - 4 races - 2 winners
Stakes 6.25
Profit 4.98 units
UK total for the week Profit 7.23 units
Overall total for the week PROFIT 8.76 units
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Those of you who have already contacted me about the private service should have received an email back from me acknowledging your interest. I will send payment details out at the end of this month and the service will have it's first operational day on Wednesday 4th September
Saturday 23 August 2014
York Ebor Festival - Day Four
The going at York is Good, Good to Firm in places. Dry day ahead initially then some showers mid afternoon. expect the ground to be generally Good to Firm by the time racing starts and after that it'll depend if and when the rain comes and how heavy it is.
There is plenty happening today so the blog has to be brief as I'm pushed for time.
Race 4 Ebor Handicap
My record in this race overall is poor. It's been a difficult race to be confident about in recent years and my general inclination would be to give it a miss but I was so impressed by Pallasator last time that despite him having to overcome the widest draw and being burdened with being favourite I think at around 5.0 there is still some value in him. He's the best horse here and he still got more to offer.
I have him at 3.80 so have no problem playing at 5.0. I did get some 5.50 but they won't let me on for much these days.
Advised Bet: Pallasator 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.0 now for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
There will be more today and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
There is plenty happening today so the blog has to be brief as I'm pushed for time.
Race 4 Ebor Handicap
My record in this race overall is poor. It's been a difficult race to be confident about in recent years and my general inclination would be to give it a miss but I was so impressed by Pallasator last time that despite him having to overcome the widest draw and being burdened with being favourite I think at around 5.0 there is still some value in him. He's the best horse here and he still got more to offer.
I have him at 3.80 so have no problem playing at 5.0. I did get some 5.50 but they won't let me on for much these days.
Advised Bet: Pallasator 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.0 now for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
There will be more today and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Friday 22 August 2014
Moonee Valley & Randwick Today
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and it's dry and fine so an upgrade is expected.
Randwick is a Heavy 9 after more rain this morning.Radar is hard to read as it looks like the weather has moved off shore but the forecast is for more. Pretty wet anyway.
There will almost certainly be more but at the moment just the two early bets today:
Randwick
Race 2
Surpass loves the wet and has a very handy claimer taking of 3 kg's. I know the fancy odds have gone but it's still value at 8.50 best offer. I have it at 6.0. I held off doing the form for Randwick because of the weather and the likelihood of multiple scratchings. Consequently tipping you in to this one is old news I suppose.
Advised Bet: Surpass 0.85 units at 6.50 or better- it may not shorten much further but can't see it getting out much either-monitor but 8.50 is STILL GOOD VALUE!
Race 6
Same story here again I'm afraid.Missed the cream but still value .Weary should be a better proposition this prep and is a proven wet horse.He'll posi right behind the speed here and have first run on his higher rated stablemates all of whom will be aiming for higher prizes in recent weeks.
Advised Bet: Weary 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.0 now
Further bets/updates sent via Twitter
Randwick is a Heavy 9 after more rain this morning.Radar is hard to read as it looks like the weather has moved off shore but the forecast is for more. Pretty wet anyway.
There will almost certainly be more but at the moment just the two early bets today:
Randwick
Race 2
Surpass loves the wet and has a very handy claimer taking of 3 kg's. I know the fancy odds have gone but it's still value at 8.50 best offer. I have it at 6.0. I held off doing the form for Randwick because of the weather and the likelihood of multiple scratchings. Consequently tipping you in to this one is old news I suppose.
Advised Bet: Surpass 0.85 units at 6.50 or better- it may not shorten much further but can't see it getting out much either-monitor but 8.50 is STILL GOOD VALUE!
Race 6
Same story here again I'm afraid.Missed the cream but still value .Weary should be a better proposition this prep and is a proven wet horse.He'll posi right behind the speed here and have first run on his higher rated stablemates all of whom will be aiming for higher prizes in recent weeks.
Advised Bet: Weary 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.0 now
Further bets/updates sent via Twitter
York Ebor Festival -- Day Three
After some overnight rain the going at York is Good. A dry day is forecast and I expect it'll be racing around the Good to Firm rating pretty quickly into the afternoon.
Race 2
Cavalryman has rediscovered his zest for racing this year. All his runs this year have been good and all are above the usual standard required to win this G2 contest. Estimate has to bounce back from a poor effort last time and if she returns to her best then she will be very hard to beat although she may be ideally suited by a longer trip. The Weld trained Pale Mimosa has to find a bit but she remains unexposed. I was eyeing her up as a potential Melbourne Cup chance but I can't see her amongst the entries. Not committed here yet.
Race 4
I've been driven nuts by Shea Shea he's cost me so much money but if he puts his best foot forward and his jockey doesn't screw up his chance (twice in G1's the rides have been atrocious) he can definitely win. There's isn't much between him and Sole Power on a head to head basis but maybe Sole Power has improved past him a little this year. I've got these two wrong every time I've got involved with them but I do think they are the two most likely here. There are a few capable of improving namely Take Cover, Hot Streak,Cougar Mountain and another money muncher G Force.
Probably doing something here but not committed yet.
Bets/Updates sent by Twitter during racing
Race 2
Cavalryman has rediscovered his zest for racing this year. All his runs this year have been good and all are above the usual standard required to win this G2 contest. Estimate has to bounce back from a poor effort last time and if she returns to her best then she will be very hard to beat although she may be ideally suited by a longer trip. The Weld trained Pale Mimosa has to find a bit but she remains unexposed. I was eyeing her up as a potential Melbourne Cup chance but I can't see her amongst the entries. Not committed here yet.
Race 4
I've been driven nuts by Shea Shea he's cost me so much money but if he puts his best foot forward and his jockey doesn't screw up his chance (twice in G1's the rides have been atrocious) he can definitely win. There's isn't much between him and Sole Power on a head to head basis but maybe Sole Power has improved past him a little this year. I've got these two wrong every time I've got involved with them but I do think they are the two most likely here. There are a few capable of improving namely Take Cover, Hot Streak,Cougar Mountain and another money muncher G Force.
Probably doing something here but not committed yet.
Bets/Updates sent by Twitter during racing
Thursday 21 August 2014
York Ebor Festival - Day Two
Light rain overnight amounted to very little and the going at York is Good to Firm, Good in places. The weather forecast suggest any rain will come after racing so expect fast Summer ground.
Race 1
Team Hannon have an exemplary record in these valuable "Sales " races and Kool Kompany is the one to beat here despite the 7lb penalty. On figures Fast Act should have just as good if not a better chance getting 7lb but he's a real risk over this extra furlong and I strongly favour Kool Kompany.
Valley Of fire looked potentially more than useful when winning here on debut and I think he's a very live hope here. May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 2
I don't have many bets in 2-y-old races hence my dithering over the previous race but I have no reservations at all here. This is very good race with three really promising fillies. I backed Anthem Alexander at Royal Ascot when she beat Tiggy Wiggy and I thought she had a bit more in hand than the narrow margin that day. Cursory Glance won well at Royal Ascot too and both her and Anthem Alexander have been off the track since then. Meanwhile Tiggy Wiggy has run away with a valueable "Sales" race at Newbury. That was a devastating performance backed up by the clock and way ahead of her Ascot effort. The slight doubt about her being quite as brilliant at 6 furlongs as at 5 is the only thing that stops me having her at odds on here. She should stay 6 furlongs OK but there is a possibility she will not be quite as good.
Advised Bet: Tiggy Wiggy 2.10 units at 2.55 or better-take the 2.90 on offer now
Other bets unlikely today but I'll update on Twitter during racing
Race 1
Team Hannon have an exemplary record in these valuable "Sales " races and Kool Kompany is the one to beat here despite the 7lb penalty. On figures Fast Act should have just as good if not a better chance getting 7lb but he's a real risk over this extra furlong and I strongly favour Kool Kompany.
Valley Of fire looked potentially more than useful when winning here on debut and I think he's a very live hope here. May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 2
I don't have many bets in 2-y-old races hence my dithering over the previous race but I have no reservations at all here. This is very good race with three really promising fillies. I backed Anthem Alexander at Royal Ascot when she beat Tiggy Wiggy and I thought she had a bit more in hand than the narrow margin that day. Cursory Glance won well at Royal Ascot too and both her and Anthem Alexander have been off the track since then. Meanwhile Tiggy Wiggy has run away with a valueable "Sales" race at Newbury. That was a devastating performance backed up by the clock and way ahead of her Ascot effort. The slight doubt about her being quite as brilliant at 6 furlongs as at 5 is the only thing that stops me having her at odds on here. She should stay 6 furlongs OK but there is a possibility she will not be quite as good.
Advised Bet: Tiggy Wiggy 2.10 units at 2.55 or better-take the 2.90 on offer now
Other bets unlikely today but I'll update on Twitter during racing
Wednesday 20 August 2014
York Ebor Festival --Day One
The going at York is Good, Good to Firm in places. Dry early and showers due mid afternoon. It may be closer to Good to Firm all over by the time racing begins and until the rain arrives.
Race 1
Fiercely competitive 5 furlong handicap and a very good race to kick the meeting off. This will be fast and furious but despite the certain hot pace it's an on pacer that I want to be with.This is a fast 5 furlongs and leaders take some reeling in here on fast ground. The 3-y-old locally trained See The Sun appeals here dropping back a furlong and drawn close to the stands rail. He won the hot 3-y-old sprint here in June and then ran a huge race against older horses last time. He stays 6 furlongs but the way he went last time suggests that 5 furlongs will suit better and at around 10.0 is worth a bet.
Advised Bet: See The Sun 0.65 units at 9.0 or better-I think this will be strong in the betting so I'm on already
That's the only early bet today but there may be more via Twitter during racing.
Race 1
Fiercely competitive 5 furlong handicap and a very good race to kick the meeting off. This will be fast and furious but despite the certain hot pace it's an on pacer that I want to be with.This is a fast 5 furlongs and leaders take some reeling in here on fast ground. The 3-y-old locally trained See The Sun appeals here dropping back a furlong and drawn close to the stands rail. He won the hot 3-y-old sprint here in June and then ran a huge race against older horses last time. He stays 6 furlongs but the way he went last time suggests that 5 furlongs will suit better and at around 10.0 is worth a bet.
Advised Bet: See The Sun 0.65 units at 9.0 or better-I think this will be strong in the betting so I'm on already
That's the only early bet today but there may be more via Twitter during racing.
Tuesday 19 August 2014
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Sandown is a Good 3 and it's fine so expect fast ground there today.
Canterbury is a Heavy 8 up from an earlier 9. Expect it to improve a bit more as the day goes on.
The Canterbury card makes little appeal at this stage as it's generally been dry in Sydney in recent weeks and now they are racing on a genuinely wet surface. There may be something there pending patterns/conditions but at this stage it looks unlikely.
Sandown
Race 1
Heronia is very well in here racing off a mark of 66. She won her maiden comfortably and then took on Listed grade going down narrowly and unluckily to the 87 rated Buddy Bundy at level weights .3 lengths behind that day was the 74 rated Pistolier who went on to win next time. Reading that form literally suggests Heronea is justified being rated in the high 80's. That last effort was on slow ground though. He is up against some tough established handicappers here and this quick 1000m can find an inexperienced horse out especially one that get's back a bit. Has C.Williams steering though so that's a definite positive. He was around 2.30 earlier and is now on the drift. Not committed at this stage.
Race 2
Stitch Me Up was terrific winning here last time and looked a horse of real promise that day. I don't how strong that race will turn out to be but he's the only one I could consider backing here. These early season 3-y-old events can be very tricky and I generally avoid them like the plague. May make an exception and get involved here but he's shortened a bit and is very marginal at current odds.
Race 5
The race that Contact won here last time wasn't a very strong event. Outback Ranger been the only real opposition and he's been beaten in weaker grade since. That said his win was dominant and the 3kg claim gets him on a slightly lower weight today. House Of Stars ran well in Saturday grade last time and she'll be fully fit now and is a real hope here. La Belle Mome is the other possibility after a sound win at Bendigo last time-fair bit harder here though. May play here-depending on odds
Race 6
Critical Angel could be a bit too classy for these. Her run in the Vanity where she split Solicit and Girl In Flight is outstanding form for this and she get's in on a mark of 68. She's got the potential to pick up a Stakes race this Spring but it's a long Spring and 1400m first up may find her out fitness wise. The alternative clearly is Paddy's Gem who has run good seconds both starts this prep. 1400m a query though. Probably passing here.
Race 7
Imaging pulled like train last time but still bolted up.Faster ground and further are positives for him he'll need to settle better here as this is tougher. Mahican was good resuming at Geelong showing a fine turn of foot to win.He's a promising horse but the gate is a worry here and he'll probably go back.Tristram's Sun is suited back in trip and hopefully they are positive from the gate with him as there isn't much obvious pace here. I think they are the three most likely here with Oltr Finito and Cross Of Gold other hopes. Not committed here at this stage but probably doing something.
Race 8
The Giddyup Kirky bubble burst last time but in fairness he got to far back to have any hope of being competitive. Now And Zen has a better gate today than last time and looks the form pick to me although he had the length of the straight to pass Tycoon Rob last time and either couldn't or wouldn't. Nordic Duke was well backed last time but flopped.Oliver takes over from the claimer this time. If I back anything here it'll be Now and Zen but not committed at this stage.
Bets? Updates
Canterbury is a Heavy 8 up from an earlier 9. Expect it to improve a bit more as the day goes on.
The Canterbury card makes little appeal at this stage as it's generally been dry in Sydney in recent weeks and now they are racing on a genuinely wet surface. There may be something there pending patterns/conditions but at this stage it looks unlikely.
Sandown
Race 1
Heronia is very well in here racing off a mark of 66. She won her maiden comfortably and then took on Listed grade going down narrowly and unluckily to the 87 rated Buddy Bundy at level weights .3 lengths behind that day was the 74 rated Pistolier who went on to win next time. Reading that form literally suggests Heronea is justified being rated in the high 80's. That last effort was on slow ground though. He is up against some tough established handicappers here and this quick 1000m can find an inexperienced horse out especially one that get's back a bit. Has C.Williams steering though so that's a definite positive. He was around 2.30 earlier and is now on the drift. Not committed at this stage.
Race 2
Stitch Me Up was terrific winning here last time and looked a horse of real promise that day. I don't how strong that race will turn out to be but he's the only one I could consider backing here. These early season 3-y-old events can be very tricky and I generally avoid them like the plague. May make an exception and get involved here but he's shortened a bit and is very marginal at current odds.
Race 5
The race that Contact won here last time wasn't a very strong event. Outback Ranger been the only real opposition and he's been beaten in weaker grade since. That said his win was dominant and the 3kg claim gets him on a slightly lower weight today. House Of Stars ran well in Saturday grade last time and she'll be fully fit now and is a real hope here. La Belle Mome is the other possibility after a sound win at Bendigo last time-fair bit harder here though. May play here-depending on odds
Race 6
Critical Angel could be a bit too classy for these. Her run in the Vanity where she split Solicit and Girl In Flight is outstanding form for this and she get's in on a mark of 68. She's got the potential to pick up a Stakes race this Spring but it's a long Spring and 1400m first up may find her out fitness wise. The alternative clearly is Paddy's Gem who has run good seconds both starts this prep. 1400m a query though. Probably passing here.
Race 7
Imaging pulled like train last time but still bolted up.Faster ground and further are positives for him he'll need to settle better here as this is tougher. Mahican was good resuming at Geelong showing a fine turn of foot to win.He's a promising horse but the gate is a worry here and he'll probably go back.Tristram's Sun is suited back in trip and hopefully they are positive from the gate with him as there isn't much obvious pace here. I think they are the three most likely here with Oltr Finito and Cross Of Gold other hopes. Not committed here at this stage but probably doing something.
Race 8
The Giddyup Kirky bubble burst last time but in fairness he got to far back to have any hope of being competitive. Now And Zen has a better gate today than last time and looks the form pick to me although he had the length of the straight to pass Tycoon Rob last time and either couldn't or wouldn't. Nordic Duke was well backed last time but flopped.Oliver takes over from the claimer this time. If I back anything here it'll be Now and Zen but not committed at this stage.
Bets? Updates
Monday 18 August 2014
Last Week's Round Up
A pretty quiet week but a poor one nevertheless. Here are the figures :-
Australia
No bets in the blog
Bets sent via Twitter- bets in 7 races - 1 winner
Stakes 10.65
Loss 4.45 units
UK
No bets in the blog
Bets sent via Twitter - bets in 2 races- 0 winners
Stakes 1.95
Loss 1.95 units
Overall for the week LOSS 6.40 units
The four day York Ebor festival starts tomorrow so hopefully there might be a few winners found there this week.
Australia
No bets in the blog
Bets sent via Twitter- bets in 7 races - 1 winner
Stakes 10.65
Loss 4.45 units
UK
No bets in the blog
Bets sent via Twitter - bets in 2 races- 0 winners
Stakes 1.95
Loss 1.95 units
Overall for the week LOSS 6.40 units
The four day York Ebor festival starts tomorrow so hopefully there might be a few winners found there this week.
Friday 15 August 2014
Caulfield & Rosehill Today - August Newsletter # 12
Caulfield is a Dead 4 and it's dry so it may upgrade.
Rosehill is a Dead 4 and there is rain on the way. How much the track gets is hard to predict but there is a chance that there will be enough to take it down to slow later in the day. Crucial to monitor conditions.
Nothing appeals at early prices at Caulfield but some of these markets will open up a bit so I expect I'll be doing something there later on.
Rosehill is totally weather dependent and going off early is a complete waste of time. I'm generally not that keen in getting involved on deteriorating tracks so I may end up giving it a miss.There may be a couple there later but not sure at this stage.
Very light mail today but will be sending bets/updates via Twitter through the afternoon
Rosehill is a Dead 4 and there is rain on the way. How much the track gets is hard to predict but there is a chance that there will be enough to take it down to slow later in the day. Crucial to monitor conditions.
Nothing appeals at early prices at Caulfield but some of these markets will open up a bit so I expect I'll be doing something there later on.
Rosehill is totally weather dependent and going off early is a complete waste of time. I'm generally not that keen in getting involved on deteriorating tracks so I may end up giving it a miss.There may be a couple there later but not sure at this stage.
Very light mail today but will be sending bets/updates via Twitter through the afternoon
Wednesday 13 August 2014
Betfair Australia sold to Crown-- August Newsletter # 11
James Packer's Crown has taken control of Betfair Australia increasing it's stake from 50% to 100% at a price of A$10 million.
The deal has huge implications for the Australian betting market and punters. The deal effectively values Betfair Australia at A$20 million.
Betfair Australia has been struggling with the turnover model adopted by racing authorities and it's venture into the Australian betting landscape hasn't been profitable for them. Nevertheless, Packer has picked up the business for a song. Ultimately things may never work out for the Betfair exchange in Australia but at the price paid it's a drop in the ocean for Crown if it goes nowhere compared to the huge potential and profits if they can make it fly.
Crown have been excellent at getting politicians and administrators onside and seeing the benefits of doing things their way.
Expect change-lots of it and don't be surprised if previous animus suddenly turns to mutual self interest after lots of arm twisting and carrot dangling.
William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet 365 have done"their brains" so far in the Aussie market but Packer has picked up the potential "game changer" for loose change.
The deal has huge implications for the Australian betting market and punters. The deal effectively values Betfair Australia at A$20 million.
Betfair Australia has been struggling with the turnover model adopted by racing authorities and it's venture into the Australian betting landscape hasn't been profitable for them. Nevertheless, Packer has picked up the business for a song. Ultimately things may never work out for the Betfair exchange in Australia but at the price paid it's a drop in the ocean for Crown if it goes nowhere compared to the huge potential and profits if they can make it fly.
Crown have been excellent at getting politicians and administrators onside and seeing the benefits of doing things their way.
Expect change-lots of it and don't be surprised if previous animus suddenly turns to mutual self interest after lots of arm twisting and carrot dangling.
William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet 365 have done"their brains" so far in the Aussie market but Packer has picked up the potential "game changer" for loose change.
Tuesday 12 August 2014
Bendigo & Kensington Today - August Newsletter # 10
Bendigo is a Dead 5 and it's dry and fresh there so it may get an upgrade at some point.
The Kenso track is posted a Slow 7. It's sunny and dry there so again it may upgrade.
The Kensington meeting makes little appeal early and I doubt that will change unless there is a dramatic market change somewhere.
Bendigo is a very competitive card and the later races are good midweek events
Bendigo
Race 5
Soosa Rama won her first 3 starts and the last of those wins was a very solid effort before failing off this mark over further.She's had an OK trial but it's no surprise they have chosen to put a claimer on her.Get's the weigh down to 58.5kg's. All her wins were on fast ground and her dam was a dead set dry tracker so any moisture in the ground would have me wary of backing her today. There are none here that I could emphatically say can't win but there may be some value here depending on how the track is playing. Possibly a small bet at odds later.
Race 6
Longeron is favourite in some books here but I can't see why.He's a hope but he'll need to lift a fair bit on his two efforts so far this prep. Devonshire Duke and Appoint both ran really well at the Valley last time and they are on top on my ratings here. Both are on pacers with low draws and near the fence is probably going to be inferior ground here today. I may do something around these two here but want to have a look at how this track is playing first. You can often get of the rail here without to much trouble on the turn. Possible play here later
Race 7
Early markets slightly favour Black Tomahawk over Rock Vantage and I agree but drying ground would help Rock Vantage so conditions need monitoring here. Again possible bet here later
Race 8
This is as strong a BM 70 as you are likely to see at midweek level. It should prove a very strong form reference for the future. Yesterday's Songs got a bit too far back last time and it was a very sound effort to finish third. He was coming off a 6 week absence there too so he should be spot on today. Oliver replaces Boss and he gets the one eyed blinker to try to correct the laying in tendency he showed last time. He's hard to beat but that laying in quirk puts me off a bit and at 2.20 he's too short.
Running Bull meets him on3kg's better terms today after young Tilley's claim.He was very good on pace at Caulfield and there is probably more to come from him. Tucanchoo is promising and has claims. Dubosc ran well after a two year absence but it will be a mighty effort to win here today.
Dillon Hall is improving and drying ground would help him.This is a lot harder than the race he won on the synthetic but there's definitely more to come from him. Mysonharry ran in G2 races last prep.
Not committed here at this stage but may do something here later
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
The Kenso track is posted a Slow 7. It's sunny and dry there so again it may upgrade.
The Kensington meeting makes little appeal early and I doubt that will change unless there is a dramatic market change somewhere.
Bendigo is a very competitive card and the later races are good midweek events
Bendigo
Race 5
Soosa Rama won her first 3 starts and the last of those wins was a very solid effort before failing off this mark over further.She's had an OK trial but it's no surprise they have chosen to put a claimer on her.Get's the weigh down to 58.5kg's. All her wins were on fast ground and her dam was a dead set dry tracker so any moisture in the ground would have me wary of backing her today. There are none here that I could emphatically say can't win but there may be some value here depending on how the track is playing. Possibly a small bet at odds later.
Race 6
Longeron is favourite in some books here but I can't see why.He's a hope but he'll need to lift a fair bit on his two efforts so far this prep. Devonshire Duke and Appoint both ran really well at the Valley last time and they are on top on my ratings here. Both are on pacers with low draws and near the fence is probably going to be inferior ground here today. I may do something around these two here but want to have a look at how this track is playing first. You can often get of the rail here without to much trouble on the turn. Possible play here later
Race 7
Early markets slightly favour Black Tomahawk over Rock Vantage and I agree but drying ground would help Rock Vantage so conditions need monitoring here. Again possible bet here later
Race 8
This is as strong a BM 70 as you are likely to see at midweek level. It should prove a very strong form reference for the future. Yesterday's Songs got a bit too far back last time and it was a very sound effort to finish third. He was coming off a 6 week absence there too so he should be spot on today. Oliver replaces Boss and he gets the one eyed blinker to try to correct the laying in tendency he showed last time. He's hard to beat but that laying in quirk puts me off a bit and at 2.20 he's too short.
Running Bull meets him on3kg's better terms today after young Tilley's claim.He was very good on pace at Caulfield and there is probably more to come from him. Tucanchoo is promising and has claims. Dubosc ran well after a two year absence but it will be a mighty effort to win here today.
Dillon Hall is improving and drying ground would help him.This is a lot harder than the race he won on the synthetic but there's definitely more to come from him. Mysonharry ran in G2 races last prep.
Not committed here at this stage but may do something here later
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Sunday 10 August 2014
Weekly Round Up -- August Newsletter # 9
Frustrating weekend and a losing week. Nothing fell into place on Saturday afternoon. I had five horses all very marginal around the 3.30-3.50 range and passed on three and played on two. The bet ones were beaten and the left ones all won. Allied with Raposo's unlucky run early in the afternoon it all contributed to an afternoon of real frustration. It all evens itself out over time of course and I did manage to hit back with a modest profit on Saturday's UK racing.
Here's last weeks results:-
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog- 1 race -0 wins
Stakes 1.25 units
Loss 1.25 units
Bets advised via twitter- bets in 3 races -1 winner
Stakes 3.45
Profit 2.05 units
UK & Int. total for the week 0.80 units Profit
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- bets advised in 6 races-1 winner
Stakes 7.05
Loss 1.13 units
Bets advised via twitter- bets in 2 races-0 winners
Stakes 3.20
Loss 3.20 units
Australia for the week 4.33 units Loss
Overall for the week LOSS 3.53 units
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Here's last weeks results:-
UK & International
Bets advised in the blog- 1 race -0 wins
Stakes 1.25 units
Loss 1.25 units
Bets advised via twitter- bets in 3 races -1 winner
Stakes 3.45
Profit 2.05 units
UK & Int. total for the week 0.80 units Profit
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- bets advised in 6 races-1 winner
Stakes 7.05
Loss 1.13 units
Bets advised via twitter- bets in 2 races-0 winners
Stakes 3.20
Loss 3.20 units
Australia for the week 4.33 units Loss
Overall for the week LOSS 3.53 units
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
G1 Racing at Deauville - August Newsletter # 8
G1 action at Deauville with the Prix Maurice De Gheest over 6 and a half furlongs.
15 runners and plenty of hopes but a favourite in Gregorian who's a bit longer in the market than I think he should be.He's very well suited by wet ground and thats what he'll get today with the track very testing. He ran a great race in the July Cup caught on the opposite side of the track to the winner Slade power and the runner up and despite being hampered and held up ran on strongly to take third.
The extra half furlong here combined with the heavy track should see him around the money. He's currently 5.0 with UK bookies and is around 6.50 on the PMU (French Tote). I have him at 4.0 so I think he a value bet at those odds and he'll probably trade higher on Betfair at some stage but not close to post time.
Advised Bet: Deauville R 3 Gregorian 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
15 runners and plenty of hopes but a favourite in Gregorian who's a bit longer in the market than I think he should be.He's very well suited by wet ground and thats what he'll get today with the track very testing. He ran a great race in the July Cup caught on the opposite side of the track to the winner Slade power and the runner up and despite being hampered and held up ran on strongly to take third.
The extra half furlong here combined with the heavy track should see him around the money. He's currently 5.0 with UK bookies and is around 6.50 on the PMU (French Tote). I have him at 4.0 so I think he a value bet at those odds and he'll probably trade higher on Betfair at some stage but not close to post time.
Advised Bet: Deauville R 3 Gregorian 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
Saturday 9 August 2014
Saturday's UK Racing - August Newsletter # 7
Heavy rain overnight has made it difficult to nominate early bets. There are certain to be a steady drip of non runners throughout the early part of the day so better to wait until things have settled down.
The annual Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot is very difficult with reserves and jockeys coming from different countries riding horses they are unfamiliar with.
It's not a great day's racing to be honest and there are limited opportunities but there may be two or three depending on final fields and markets.
Short and brief today but at this stage it's an unclear picture.
Bets/Updates sent via twitter
The annual Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot is very difficult with reserves and jockeys coming from different countries riding horses they are unfamiliar with.
It's not a great day's racing to be honest and there are limited opportunities but there may be two or three depending on final fields and markets.
Short and brief today but at this stage it's an unclear picture.
Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Friday 8 August 2014
Flemington & Randwick Today - August Newsletter # 6
Flemington is a Good 3 and any rain is not expected until the evening so expect fast conditions.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and there is a bit of patchy rain around on the satellite. There is a chance of an upgrade later-monitor.
Some of the better horses making their way back today and the quality will begin to pick up week by week from now on.
Randwick
I want to see how this track is playing here today before committing. The two I definitely am interested in are quite tight to my figures at the moment so I'm not going in until I'm happy with the prevailing conditions.There may be no bias today but based on how Randwick has performed over the last few months bias is more likely than not-we'll see.
Flemington
Race 2
I'm keen on Eclair Samba here but I'm hoping he'll get out a tad in betting at some point. 2.80 is the best offer around at the moment and I have him at 2.60. There is value there but there may be better to come.
Advised Bet: Eclair Samba 1.90 units at 2.80 or better -have 25% of the stake at 2.80 and monitor with the balance but don't wait too long -3.0 is good if it gets there.
Race 4
I don't normally get involved with these early season 3-y-old races but Raposo is way overs here. I doubt he was suited racing in restricted room on the fence here last time. He gave Imaging a thumping on debut and that horse bolted up on Wednesday.There are a few possibilities here as there usually are in these ultra competitive 3-y-old races but this should be any bigger than 6.0 here.
Advised Bet: Raposo 0.80 units at 6.50 or better-take 9.0 on offer
Race 5
Cleverdude did look good winning on his first start for D.Weir but that wasn't anything like as strong as this and I think he's too short now-concede he's a real chance if he can go on with it but he has had problems and second up is a risk especially at 3.50. The value runners are - Cross Of Gold who has improved this prep admittedly on the synthetic but he looked a horse of promise and he's worth chancing at odds and, Theatreman another promising type who bolted up on his comeback run.
Advised Bets: Cross of Gold 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer
Theatreman 0.65 units at 9.0 or better-monitor betting-is 12.0 for bits on Betfair
There will almost certainly be more today and Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
Randwick is a Dead 4 and there is a bit of patchy rain around on the satellite. There is a chance of an upgrade later-monitor.
Some of the better horses making their way back today and the quality will begin to pick up week by week from now on.
Randwick
I want to see how this track is playing here today before committing. The two I definitely am interested in are quite tight to my figures at the moment so I'm not going in until I'm happy with the prevailing conditions.There may be no bias today but based on how Randwick has performed over the last few months bias is more likely than not-we'll see.
Flemington
Race 2
I'm keen on Eclair Samba here but I'm hoping he'll get out a tad in betting at some point. 2.80 is the best offer around at the moment and I have him at 2.60. There is value there but there may be better to come.
Advised Bet: Eclair Samba 1.90 units at 2.80 or better -have 25% of the stake at 2.80 and monitor with the balance but don't wait too long -3.0 is good if it gets there.
Race 4
I don't normally get involved with these early season 3-y-old races but Raposo is way overs here. I doubt he was suited racing in restricted room on the fence here last time. He gave Imaging a thumping on debut and that horse bolted up on Wednesday.There are a few possibilities here as there usually are in these ultra competitive 3-y-old races but this should be any bigger than 6.0 here.
Advised Bet: Raposo 0.80 units at 6.50 or better-take 9.0 on offer
Race 5
Cleverdude did look good winning on his first start for D.Weir but that wasn't anything like as strong as this and I think he's too short now-concede he's a real chance if he can go on with it but he has had problems and second up is a risk especially at 3.50. The value runners are - Cross Of Gold who has improved this prep admittedly on the synthetic but he looked a horse of promise and he's worth chancing at odds and, Theatreman another promising type who bolted up on his comeback run.
Advised Bets: Cross of Gold 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer
Theatreman 0.65 units at 9.0 or better-monitor betting-is 12.0 for bits on Betfair
There will almost certainly be more today and Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Reminder:
This will be the last month that I continue this way-blog bets and bets sent via Twitter. From September for 3 months I am trialing a members service where the advised bets will go out by sms. That takes in the Australian Spring Carnival and all the fantastic European Autumn action. Members will get an email on the days when bets are likely advising the possibility of bets in certain races and these will be confirmed by sms. I have had a few requests to start up a private service but I wanted to run the blog for a while so people can see that it is genuinely profitable over time. After almost two years I think I've done that emphatically.
Membership will be capped at 30 members and that number will never increase.The initial cost will be $100 per month or $200 if you subscribe for the whole 3 months. December I am taking off and if things have worked out OK the service will resume in January. Anyone interested in joining the service should email me: maxblakey@rocketmail.com and I will email back full details. Your email address will never be passed on to third parties.
The blog will continue after this month and I'll still look at a race or two on the better days and pass on anything worthwhile.
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