Flemington is a Good 3 and a dry day expected so fast conditions likely.Rosehill is a Slow 6 with plenty of rain around and the likelihood of a track that will deteriorate through the day.Anything I'm doing there will be sent via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
2-y-o race so a watching race for me
Race 2
Saint Or Sinner deserves to be on top but at 2.80 he's too short.All of them here have some kind of hope and nothing really would surprise.
Race 3
Prince Of Penzance was good at Mornington but I thought that he was found out late by the 2400m in a strongly run race.Here he is stepping up another 200m!This won't be as frantically run but at 3.20 you don't want to have doubts about stamina.Solid stayers in opposition and a sound case can be made for Cooldini,Gottino and Macedonian.Outback Joe runs his best races here although he's quite highly rated after being raised 13 points for winning the Bagot.Like a Carousel was a strong winner last time and is a thorough stayer but I think he's too short around 5.0
Race 4
Elite Elle is well suited here by the set weights and penalties conditions.At around 3.30 the bookies are letting you on and that's because she's a bit suss on rattling fast ground and she's never been down the straight track before.She's clearly on top form wise.Angels Beach is favourite now around 2.70 and I'll be laying around those prices as apart from Elite Elle I think the rest are very closely matched.
Race 5
Floria is best suited by the set weights and penalties conditions.She's on top but 3.80 for a mare resuming is hardly enticing.Goldslick is a definite hope but is not easy to catch.The bottom 5 here all have some claim and none would surprise.Koonoomoo is a bit "in and out" these days but her second to Red Tracer last prep shows she can still pull out a big run.Pass
Race 6
Seven resume here and 5 of them are noted as very good fresh horses.Straberry boy is one of those and is favourite here at 3.30 probably as he may get a cosy lead.That's far too short in a very open looking race.Apart from Mourinho nothing else would surprise here
Race 7
Three strong chances in Shamus Award (obviously the highest rated as a Cox Plate winner and much fitter for his comeback run),Eurozone (improving and just failed to run down Moment Of Change at G1 level last time) and Hucklebuck (looks a top liner but still has a bit to find on what he's actually achieved so far).Couldn't put you off any of these 3 and can't decide between them.Very confident that the winner comes from these 3
Race 8
Hard race to get a confident angle on despite them all being seasoned performers.Might look to lay one here but not committed yet
Race 9
Akzar really impressed with his attitude last time.it's a bit harder here but apart from Desert Jeurney who is not that well handicapped (raised 19 points for winning at the end of last prep) and Extra Zero (has only 1.5 kg's pull over Akzar for being beaten a length last time) the rest look hard to have.Akzar looks very hard to beat but I won't take shorts about horses that settle out the back.2.10 is very fair if you want to back him but I will be neither backing him or opposing him
Updates via twitter through the afternoon
Friday 28 February 2014
Moonee Valley Tonight Part Two
Race 5
Plenty of speed here.Corstons Beau was very good on his first run in Victoria round here 4 weeks ago.He'll hold the rail here and the 955m looks just the ticket for him.3.30 is skinny though considering the likely pressure.Tansy won a decent 3-yo race last time and has good speed and ability.Schumacher,Athenian Girl and Beauty cash are the others to consider
Race 6
Not keen on this race
Race 7
Mandla and Tackleberry were 1-2 last time at Flemington when they both had first run on the opposition.The presence of Agister probably means that there'll be more pressure this time.Cavello Nero was not far off at Flemington and the claim helps him but not sure about him around Moonee Valley.Hosting looked a good horse last prep and he goes very well fresh.He's the one I'd be most interested in backing here but again I'm not sure how he'll handle MV.Not committed yet here.
Race 8
Hotel Sierra has very solid credentials here.At 2.10 though you are playing at very skinny odds.Couldn't bet at those odds but not likely to be opposing either
Plenty of speed here.Corstons Beau was very good on his first run in Victoria round here 4 weeks ago.He'll hold the rail here and the 955m looks just the ticket for him.3.30 is skinny though considering the likely pressure.Tansy won a decent 3-yo race last time and has good speed and ability.Schumacher,Athenian Girl and Beauty cash are the others to consider
Race 6
Not keen on this race
Race 7
Mandla and Tackleberry were 1-2 last time at Flemington when they both had first run on the opposition.The presence of Agister probably means that there'll be more pressure this time.Cavello Nero was not far off at Flemington and the claim helps him but not sure about him around Moonee Valley.Hosting looked a good horse last prep and he goes very well fresh.He's the one I'd be most interested in backing here but again I'm not sure how he'll handle MV.Not committed yet here.
Race 8
Hotel Sierra has very solid credentials here.At 2.10 though you are playing at very skinny odds.Couldn't bet at those odds but not likely to be opposing either
Thursday 27 February 2014
Moonee Valley Tonight Part One
Moonee Valley posts a Dead 4 and it's dry in Melbourne so I assume an upgrade will happen unless the early reading was incorrect.
Race 1
Cardinal Cross is unraced but has been vying with Waldorf for favouritism in early betting.Waldorf has clearly this best form but races too keenly (seemed to resent the noseroll last time) and his stable is struggling a bit again.Not sure here
Race 2
Precious Gem is progressing.She was pretty much all out to win here last time and has to lift again here to follow up but there is a good chance she can.Summerbliss is classy but is first up and may need the run-gets back too and doubt they will fly here.Grand Zee has to have as good a chance as any if she gets the trip.It's a big if though as she's appeared a doubtful stayer when with M.Kavanagh
Not playing
Race 3
Too difficult to evaluate with any confidence
Race 4
Schalot resumes.Probably beat a decent filly on debut and is an obvious hope but is short enough on what he's achieved.Apple Thief ran very well last time is a higher graded race than this one.Aragonese ran well in a decent race at Sandown.He looked good winning his debut and the extra 200m is a real plus for him this evening.Possibilities here but not committed as yet.Will advise via twitter if playing.
Part two follows in around an hour-updates via twitter
Race 1
Cardinal Cross is unraced but has been vying with Waldorf for favouritism in early betting.Waldorf has clearly this best form but races too keenly (seemed to resent the noseroll last time) and his stable is struggling a bit again.Not sure here
Race 2
Precious Gem is progressing.She was pretty much all out to win here last time and has to lift again here to follow up but there is a good chance she can.Summerbliss is classy but is first up and may need the run-gets back too and doubt they will fly here.Grand Zee has to have as good a chance as any if she gets the trip.It's a big if though as she's appeared a doubtful stayer when with M.Kavanagh
Not playing
Race 3
Too difficult to evaluate with any confidence
Race 4
Schalot resumes.Probably beat a decent filly on debut and is an obvious hope but is short enough on what he's achieved.Apple Thief ran very well last time is a higher graded race than this one.Aragonese ran well in a decent race at Sandown.He looked good winning his debut and the extra 200m is a real plus for him this evening.Possibilities here but not committed as yet.Will advise via twitter if playing.
Part two follows in around an hour-updates via twitter
Tuesday 25 February 2014
Sandown & Kensington Today
Sandown posts a Good 3 and there is a small chance of light rain but I think a going change is unlikely.The Kenso track posts a Dead 4 and it's dry in Sydney so an upgrade is possible.
I'm not going off early in Sydney as there are too many biased tracks at the moment and I was caught out stupidly on Saturday and am not falling for it again.Sydney info will be via twitter until things show some signs of settling down.The Autumn brings rain in Sydney and usually lots of it so track bias looks like being a real headache there for some time yet.
Sandown
Race 1
Northern Cath gets in well with the claim b ut has a wide gate to overcome.It's a tight maiden this one and there are a few realistic hopes here.Not betting
Race 2
Another tight maiden.Reldas has shortened up a fair bit this morning and is around 3.0 now which looks very skinny to me.I thought there were around 8/9 hopes here so if I end up doing anything here it'll be opposing the favourite.Will advise via twitter
Race 3
Typically tricky mares race.Chances in race card order are,Manhattan Maid (better last time),Godspiel (outpaced over a 1000m resuming but worked home well,this suits well second up),Rayhan (had a good prep but rated high enough now but cannot dismiss),Sinhala (keen when led latest but will probably lead again and a hope if settles ok) Itsmycall (forgive latest and sound win prior) Magic Curves (tough game effort last time and real hope if handles extra 100m).
Race 4
Watch and learn
Race 5
I sent a tweet through earlier advising Nella fantasia at 3.40 as I have her rated 3.0 MAX here.The 3.4 is still around.She was good last time over a 1000m coming of a 4 week freshen and the 1200m today suits better.Chelsea Hotel has been found out at metro level in Sydney.Dasilva has a hope if returning to form after a poor run last time.Havanna Sky was good resuming after a long break but this is harder.Pink Zinc was better than the bare result last time but again this is harder.Clearly Nella for me here
Advised Bet: Nella Fantasia 1.65 units at 3.0 or better.Take the 3.4 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 6
Interesting race but quite a difficult one.Every Faith has good efforts in good races but expect her to want further.Always Rose and NoExcuses Bec both were good winners of Pakenham maidens on the same day.Anyways Rosie ran the better time.Choose has a wide run when winning her maiden in good style.The 2 behind her that day also has awkward runs and are in action earlier in the day so we'll get a better line on her chances after watching how they go.Elle Exite is a hope.Uranie was strong winning a weak maiden.Reddy Cux has form from better races and is drawn to get a good run.The claim gets him in really well here and he deserves to be favourite.I still may have missed the winner here.
Race 7
Turquoise King is going to be hard to beat here.Doubt we have seen the best of him yet.He's a bit short at 2.30 but he's hard to get away from.The Bowler caught a horse in rare form last time and he ran really well-he'll run well again.There are two enigmatic types resuming here in Skawboard Pressure and Most Husbands both of whom can pull out big runs or shockers.I'm wary of both fresh here particularly Skawboard .Seglea Sun and Edge Of War are racing well.Lord Da Vinci is promising and has more to offer.
Race 8
Taiyoo will be better suited here than around MV.He does get baxk though so you are relying on sufficient pace on up front.Calibrate is promising and was given no hope last time-he gets back too.Bernie of Babylon will be on pace and as such is a player here.Maybe something here but not committed yet
Updates via Twitter during the afternoon
I'm not going off early in Sydney as there are too many biased tracks at the moment and I was caught out stupidly on Saturday and am not falling for it again.Sydney info will be via twitter until things show some signs of settling down.The Autumn brings rain in Sydney and usually lots of it so track bias looks like being a real headache there for some time yet.
Sandown
Race 1
Northern Cath gets in well with the claim b ut has a wide gate to overcome.It's a tight maiden this one and there are a few realistic hopes here.Not betting
Race 2
Another tight maiden.Reldas has shortened up a fair bit this morning and is around 3.0 now which looks very skinny to me.I thought there were around 8/9 hopes here so if I end up doing anything here it'll be opposing the favourite.Will advise via twitter
Race 3
Typically tricky mares race.Chances in race card order are,Manhattan Maid (better last time),Godspiel (outpaced over a 1000m resuming but worked home well,this suits well second up),Rayhan (had a good prep but rated high enough now but cannot dismiss),Sinhala (keen when led latest but will probably lead again and a hope if settles ok) Itsmycall (forgive latest and sound win prior) Magic Curves (tough game effort last time and real hope if handles extra 100m).
Race 4
Watch and learn
Race 5
I sent a tweet through earlier advising Nella fantasia at 3.40 as I have her rated 3.0 MAX here.The 3.4 is still around.She was good last time over a 1000m coming of a 4 week freshen and the 1200m today suits better.Chelsea Hotel has been found out at metro level in Sydney.Dasilva has a hope if returning to form after a poor run last time.Havanna Sky was good resuming after a long break but this is harder.Pink Zinc was better than the bare result last time but again this is harder.Clearly Nella for me here
Advised Bet: Nella Fantasia 1.65 units at 3.0 or better.Take the 3.4 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 6
Interesting race but quite a difficult one.Every Faith has good efforts in good races but expect her to want further.Always Rose and NoExcuses Bec both were good winners of Pakenham maidens on the same day.Anyways Rosie ran the better time.Choose has a wide run when winning her maiden in good style.The 2 behind her that day also has awkward runs and are in action earlier in the day so we'll get a better line on her chances after watching how they go.Elle Exite is a hope.Uranie was strong winning a weak maiden.Reddy Cux has form from better races and is drawn to get a good run.The claim gets him in really well here and he deserves to be favourite.I still may have missed the winner here.
Race 7
Turquoise King is going to be hard to beat here.Doubt we have seen the best of him yet.He's a bit short at 2.30 but he's hard to get away from.The Bowler caught a horse in rare form last time and he ran really well-he'll run well again.There are two enigmatic types resuming here in Skawboard Pressure and Most Husbands both of whom can pull out big runs or shockers.I'm wary of both fresh here particularly Skawboard .Seglea Sun and Edge Of War are racing well.Lord Da Vinci is promising and has more to offer.
Race 8
Taiyoo will be better suited here than around MV.He does get baxk though so you are relying on sufficient pace on up front.Calibrate is promising and was given no hope last time-he gets back too.Bernie of Babylon will be on pace and as such is a player here.Maybe something here but not committed yet
Updates via Twitter during the afternoon
Weekly Round Up
As I've mentioned in recent blogs it's been hard getting back into things after a break away from the racing during most of January.I've been very cautious and tentative throughout this month as I slowly get back to a normal working schedule.
I'm pretty much back to my normal routine now and whilst last week had me operating at about 50% of my normal turnover it will steadily get back to full capacity quickly.Anyway less can often be better and the blog had a good week on low turnover.Here's the results:
Blog
Bets advised in 3 races-2 winners
Stakes 4.80
Profit 7.96
Tweets
Bets advised in 1 race-no winners
Stakes 0.85
Loss 0.85
Total for the week 7.11 units profit
Back tomorrow for a look at Wednesday's midweek metropolitan fixtures
I'm pretty much back to my normal routine now and whilst last week had me operating at about 50% of my normal turnover it will steadily get back to full capacity quickly.Anyway less can often be better and the blog had a good week on low turnover.Here's the results:
Blog
Bets advised in 3 races-2 winners
Stakes 4.80
Profit 7.96
Tweets
Bets advised in 1 race-no winners
Stakes 0.85
Loss 0.85
Total for the week 7.11 units profit
Back tomorrow for a look at Wednesday's midweek metropolitan fixtures
Friday 21 February 2014
Blue Diamond,Oakleigh Plate and Futurity at Caulfield & Randwick
Three G 1's at Caulfield so plenty to look forward too this afternoon.It's posted a Good 3 and the forecast morning showers have stayed away and the radar looks clear.Randwick is posted a Dead 5 and again forecast showers have not arrived and the radar is clear.If and it has to be an "if" after last weeks fiasco that Dead 5 reading at 7am is accurate them it's fair to expect an upgrade to a Dead 4 provided there is no more rain.
Plenty of interest at Randwick this afternoon but only one bet there at this stage
Randwick
Race 6
Leebaz is promising and resumes in a winnable race.He's an on pacer so he's entitled to be at the head of the market.Specific Choice was good last time but still only managed second.Canny Ballad is racing consistently but needs a bit more to break through here.Gamblestown will get a nice run but he looks too short at 6.0.Pillow Talk gets back and needs the breaks but at 13.0 and 3.74 the place I want to have an interest in her.She's run ok on a dead 4 but anything wetter is unknown.Her dam won on a heavy track so I will take the chance that she'll be ok
Advised Bet : Pillow Talk 0.55 units win and place-take the 13.0/3.74 with TAB fixed odds
Caulfield
Race 1
This is an impossible race to map accurately.I won't be backing anything here but I though Kitten On The Run looked a possible lay at current odds of 5.0
Race 2
Not Listentome is very hard to oppose but at odds on I don't want to back him either.Interesting race this with an eye on the rest of the Autumn.
Race 3
Marianne was excellent first up and she is clearly on top but the odds are too skinny to interest me.Can't back her and can't oppose her either
Race 4
Very tricky race to weigh up.Pass here
Race 5
Fiorente has much bigger targets ahead of him so do you want to take 2.25 about a horse who will benefit from the run and probably stand a few of them a fair start?Of course he can win but in a likely tactical affair I want some solid value before playing.Probably passing here unless Pakal gets out a bit (unlikely).
Race 6
I marginally prefer the 3-y-o Bull Point to Moment Of Change here.The early 3.50 has gone now and I have no interest in playing at 2.70.If you got the 3.50 good luck and Moment of Change is now out to 3.95 on Betfair so you might want to have a saver.I have them 3.0 and 3.30 respectively.
Race 7
I don't have many 2-y-o bets although the two I did have last season both won including the winner of this race.Rubick,Earthquake the obvious two them Nayeli,Chivelry and Jabali.Not playing
Race 8
I like the two improvers here in Lankan Rupee and Knoydart.I'm backing both here Lankan at over 3.7 and Knoydart at over 5.0.Currently on betfair they are 4.2 and 5.9 respectively.
Advised Bet : Lankan Ruby 1.4 units at 3.70 or better
Knoydart 1.05 units at 5.0 or better
Monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Arinosa should be better for here luckless reappearance run and will be the one to beat if returning to form.I'd want around 4.50 to consider backing her though and that seems unlikely now.Probably not playing here
Plenty of interest at Randwick this afternoon but only one bet there at this stage
Randwick
Race 6
Leebaz is promising and resumes in a winnable race.He's an on pacer so he's entitled to be at the head of the market.Specific Choice was good last time but still only managed second.Canny Ballad is racing consistently but needs a bit more to break through here.Gamblestown will get a nice run but he looks too short at 6.0.Pillow Talk gets back and needs the breaks but at 13.0 and 3.74 the place I want to have an interest in her.She's run ok on a dead 4 but anything wetter is unknown.Her dam won on a heavy track so I will take the chance that she'll be ok
Advised Bet : Pillow Talk 0.55 units win and place-take the 13.0/3.74 with TAB fixed odds
Caulfield
Race 1
This is an impossible race to map accurately.I won't be backing anything here but I though Kitten On The Run looked a possible lay at current odds of 5.0
Race 2
Not Listentome is very hard to oppose but at odds on I don't want to back him either.Interesting race this with an eye on the rest of the Autumn.
Race 3
Marianne was excellent first up and she is clearly on top but the odds are too skinny to interest me.Can't back her and can't oppose her either
Race 4
Very tricky race to weigh up.Pass here
Race 5
Fiorente has much bigger targets ahead of him so do you want to take 2.25 about a horse who will benefit from the run and probably stand a few of them a fair start?Of course he can win but in a likely tactical affair I want some solid value before playing.Probably passing here unless Pakal gets out a bit (unlikely).
Race 6
I marginally prefer the 3-y-o Bull Point to Moment Of Change here.The early 3.50 has gone now and I have no interest in playing at 2.70.If you got the 3.50 good luck and Moment of Change is now out to 3.95 on Betfair so you might want to have a saver.I have them 3.0 and 3.30 respectively.
Race 7
I don't have many 2-y-o bets although the two I did have last season both won including the winner of this race.Rubick,Earthquake the obvious two them Nayeli,Chivelry and Jabali.Not playing
Race 8
I like the two improvers here in Lankan Rupee and Knoydart.I'm backing both here Lankan at over 3.7 and Knoydart at over 5.0.Currently on betfair they are 4.2 and 5.9 respectively.
Advised Bet : Lankan Ruby 1.4 units at 3.70 or better
Knoydart 1.05 units at 5.0 or better
Monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Arinosa should be better for here luckless reappearance run and will be the one to beat if returning to form.I'd want around 4.50 to consider backing her though and that seems unlikely now.Probably not playing here
Thursday 20 February 2014
Moonee Valley & Canterbury This Evening
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and it may upgrade.Canterbury has upgraded from a Slow 6 to a Dead 5 and another upgrade is a real possibility.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
Daybreak and Wairoa head the market around 3.30.The claim helps Daybreak and I prefer him to Wairoa who gets back in a race with dubious pace-think he's far too short.London Stripe draws for a good run but has to lump 60kgs.He is hard to catch but I think this track suits him and Arnold has won on him.Around 6.0 on Betfair I think he is the value.
Race 2
First Bloom is a month between runs but I suspect it's a planned freshen rather than an enforced one.There was a suitable race for her here a couple of weeks ago worth 35K but tonight the prize is 80K.She ran very well last February off a similar break when unlucky in Tassie.Text n' Hurley was luckless last time and she is 2.90 against First Bloom at 2.0.Uncertain pace here complicates things.It does look one of these two but the speed map is uncertain so I'm probably staying out.
Race 3
Not an easy race to evaluate confidently.Coronation Shallah improved every run in her first prep.She's 13 points higher now than when she raced last and resuming.That 13 point rise is a tad deceiving and she's is likely to be very competitive off the new mark.You Can Dance had all the favours in front last and there will be more pressure this evening-the claim offers some relief and she is well placed here.Apart from Chinzia, Tykook and Misscatelli nothing would surprise here.
Race 4
Signoff on top clearly but at around 3.20 he's priced accurtately I think.There is pace here so the wide barrier shouldn't inconveniece him too much.No fat in the odds though.
Race 5
If I knew Snitzem was 100% ready to fire I'd be keen on him here but he's first up for Waller and he finished off last prep with an infection.He's speedy but there is a lot of pace here so in those circumstances you need to sure that the fitness levels are there.Let's Rocknroll looks a chance but is short at 2.60 considering the upfront pressure.Go The Knuckle races well here and he will be strong late.Probably passing here.
Race 6
Miss Promiscuity looks better than the other locals so looks to have only the WA raider Miss Rose De Lago to overcome here.Evens and 4.50 respectively looks about right to me.
Race 7
Three serious chances.Travolta is game and consistent but has to carry 60kgs and conceed 6kgs to both Big Memory and Use The Lot.May be a bet here and I'll advise on Twitter a few minutes prior to the race.
Race 8
Reddamour is a live hope but barrier 1 around here can be a nightmare unless you are up on the speed.2.30 is insanely short and I much prefer Cult Of Isis who is flying at the moment.I'm backing her here at around 5.0/5.50
Advised Bet: Cult Of Isis 1.25 units at 4.20 or better.5.50 with Tatts bet at the moment.Take if you can get it,otherwise monitor closely.
Canterbury advise and late mail from Moonee Valley on twitter .
Moonee Valley
Race 1
Daybreak and Wairoa head the market around 3.30.The claim helps Daybreak and I prefer him to Wairoa who gets back in a race with dubious pace-think he's far too short.London Stripe draws for a good run but has to lump 60kgs.He is hard to catch but I think this track suits him and Arnold has won on him.Around 6.0 on Betfair I think he is the value.
Race 2
First Bloom is a month between runs but I suspect it's a planned freshen rather than an enforced one.There was a suitable race for her here a couple of weeks ago worth 35K but tonight the prize is 80K.She ran very well last February off a similar break when unlucky in Tassie.Text n' Hurley was luckless last time and she is 2.90 against First Bloom at 2.0.Uncertain pace here complicates things.It does look one of these two but the speed map is uncertain so I'm probably staying out.
Race 3
Not an easy race to evaluate confidently.Coronation Shallah improved every run in her first prep.She's 13 points higher now than when she raced last and resuming.That 13 point rise is a tad deceiving and she's is likely to be very competitive off the new mark.You Can Dance had all the favours in front last and there will be more pressure this evening-the claim offers some relief and she is well placed here.Apart from Chinzia, Tykook and Misscatelli nothing would surprise here.
Race 4
Signoff on top clearly but at around 3.20 he's priced accurtately I think.There is pace here so the wide barrier shouldn't inconveniece him too much.No fat in the odds though.
Race 5
If I knew Snitzem was 100% ready to fire I'd be keen on him here but he's first up for Waller and he finished off last prep with an infection.He's speedy but there is a lot of pace here so in those circumstances you need to sure that the fitness levels are there.Let's Rocknroll looks a chance but is short at 2.60 considering the upfront pressure.Go The Knuckle races well here and he will be strong late.Probably passing here.
Race 6
Miss Promiscuity looks better than the other locals so looks to have only the WA raider Miss Rose De Lago to overcome here.Evens and 4.50 respectively looks about right to me.
Race 7
Three serious chances.Travolta is game and consistent but has to carry 60kgs and conceed 6kgs to both Big Memory and Use The Lot.May be a bet here and I'll advise on Twitter a few minutes prior to the race.
Race 8
Reddamour is a live hope but barrier 1 around here can be a nightmare unless you are up on the speed.2.30 is insanely short and I much prefer Cult Of Isis who is flying at the moment.I'm backing her here at around 5.0/5.50
Advised Bet: Cult Of Isis 1.25 units at 4.20 or better.5.50 with Tatts bet at the moment.Take if you can get it,otherwise monitor closely.
Canterbury advise and late mail from Moonee Valley on twitter .
Wednesday 19 February 2014
Bendigo Today
Medical appointment this morning so no in depth blog today.Updates through the afternoon via Twitter.Bendigo is posted a Dead 4 after a heavy dew this morning.Probably upgrades into the afternoon.
Full analysis for Moonee Valley tomorrow
Full analysis for Moonee Valley tomorrow
Tuesday 18 February 2014
Sandown Hillside & Warwick Farm Today
The Sandown track reopens today after being out of action for some months to allow a new surface to be laid.The middle of the week completely lost it's shape without Sandown and I'm very glad it's back and hope the new surface holds up well.There is plenty of racing scheduled there over the next few months and there are only a few Wednesday's coming up where we are not racing there.Today it's posted as a Good 3.A narrow but heavy band of rain has passed east of Melbourne this morning but looks to have missed the track.More rain is forecast from mid afternoon but the weather situation is volatile so keep monitoring it if your betting early.
Warwick Farm is already a Slow 6 and more rain is about to arrive there with plenty forecast over the next few hours.Expect a deteriorating surface as the afternoon progresses.In those circumstances early advise is pretty pointless so I'm happy to pass at this stage.
Sandown
There has been plenty happening in my personal life in the first few weeks of this year and as a result I don't feel I'm completely back in the groove racing wise although I'm getting there.
This meeting today has taken an age to assess and I'd like to be able to be positive about at least one or two runners but really it is very,very tough.That's my objective opinion and nothing appeals to me at all here as a bet at this stage.
Race 1
Watch and learn
Race 2
In racecard order Zuhayr,Kansha ,Lamentations and Rasa Lila look the most likely.Zuhayr has already been first past the post but knocked out for weighing in light.He ran well in a city maiden last time and he's likely to be involved.Kansha has started favourite every run and had a torrid run in a city maiden last time.it was a strong effort to finish just out of the placing there.Blinkers first time.Slight query about the extra 200m though.Lamentations was unlucky not to break through last time and the extra 300m should help him.Rasa Lila is the best priced of the four and she looks the value.Luckless last time,she will be suited by the trip and all her three efforts have been good.
Race 3
Not easy to evaluate.written was well backed to follow up her maiden win at Mornington last week. That was a forgive run and she's a hope but 3.0 is no value.Don't know here.
Race 4
Chloe In Paris was the one that caught my eye initially.Both her runs have been good as have her two recent trials.She draws out though and there is pace a plenty underneath her.They may take a sit but she's led in both her races.Plenty of others that you cannot dismiss so 2.60 is very short.Tansy looked good at Stony Creek and he's a definite chance but again 3.80 looks too short.Difficult race to evaluate accurately.
Race 5
Pyrrolic drops from G2 to this RB 70.His effort there was OK and he had little hope from where he was in the run.It was hardly eyecatching though and 2.60 is too short.Sabkhat gets blinkers first time and he was good last time.7.0 is OK if you like him.Silent Man.The Terricks (blinkers),Artic Song,Artie's Shore and Corporate Takeover are other possibilities.
Race 6
I couldn't really dismiss anything here.Very hard race.Rain may have arrived by now.
Race 7
Not A Llama was very good at Geelong and her mark of 67 is very attractive.Oliver rides and she's drawn for a good run.Worthy favourite but 2.40 is way too short.Duet is a sound hope and 10.0 is overs against my 7.0 but I'm not confident enough with my figures on this race to justify betting.
Race 8
Very tough race.Tooleybuck Kid disappointed last time and gets the first time blinkers on today.If you can forgive the latest effort he's got to be a sound chance.He's very short at 4.60 though although the others are hard to split and his potential upside is likely to see him retain favoritism here.
Updates via Twitter where possible this afternoon
Warwick Farm is already a Slow 6 and more rain is about to arrive there with plenty forecast over the next few hours.Expect a deteriorating surface as the afternoon progresses.In those circumstances early advise is pretty pointless so I'm happy to pass at this stage.
Sandown
There has been plenty happening in my personal life in the first few weeks of this year and as a result I don't feel I'm completely back in the groove racing wise although I'm getting there.
This meeting today has taken an age to assess and I'd like to be able to be positive about at least one or two runners but really it is very,very tough.That's my objective opinion and nothing appeals to me at all here as a bet at this stage.
Race 1
Watch and learn
Race 2
In racecard order Zuhayr,Kansha ,Lamentations and Rasa Lila look the most likely.Zuhayr has already been first past the post but knocked out for weighing in light.He ran well in a city maiden last time and he's likely to be involved.Kansha has started favourite every run and had a torrid run in a city maiden last time.it was a strong effort to finish just out of the placing there.Blinkers first time.Slight query about the extra 200m though.Lamentations was unlucky not to break through last time and the extra 300m should help him.Rasa Lila is the best priced of the four and she looks the value.Luckless last time,she will be suited by the trip and all her three efforts have been good.
Race 3
Not easy to evaluate.written was well backed to follow up her maiden win at Mornington last week. That was a forgive run and she's a hope but 3.0 is no value.Don't know here.
Race 4
Chloe In Paris was the one that caught my eye initially.Both her runs have been good as have her two recent trials.She draws out though and there is pace a plenty underneath her.They may take a sit but she's led in both her races.Plenty of others that you cannot dismiss so 2.60 is very short.Tansy looked good at Stony Creek and he's a definite chance but again 3.80 looks too short.Difficult race to evaluate accurately.
Race 5
Pyrrolic drops from G2 to this RB 70.His effort there was OK and he had little hope from where he was in the run.It was hardly eyecatching though and 2.60 is too short.Sabkhat gets blinkers first time and he was good last time.7.0 is OK if you like him.Silent Man.The Terricks (blinkers),Artic Song,Artie's Shore and Corporate Takeover are other possibilities.
Race 6
I couldn't really dismiss anything here.Very hard race.Rain may have arrived by now.
Race 7
Not A Llama was very good at Geelong and her mark of 67 is very attractive.Oliver rides and she's drawn for a good run.Worthy favourite but 2.40 is way too short.Duet is a sound hope and 10.0 is overs against my 7.0 but I'm not confident enough with my figures on this race to justify betting.
Race 8
Very tough race.Tooleybuck Kid disappointed last time and gets the first time blinkers on today.If you can forgive the latest effort he's got to be a sound chance.He's very short at 4.60 though although the others are hard to split and his potential upside is likely to see him retain favoritism here.
Updates via Twitter where possible this afternoon
Friday 14 February 2014
Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington & Rosehill
Flemington is a Good 3 and the BOM has rain forecast but I can see no sign of it on the radar so I'm working on fast Summer ground all day.Rosehill is a Good 3 but it's rained a bit this morning and there is more around so I'm not sure what to expect there.I won't generally bet on deteriorating tracks as the advantage moves very markedly in the layers favour so anything at Rosehill will be sent via twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
Watch and learn
Race 2
Akzar is favourite here by default as negatives attach to all of the others.He's in to 2.66 now on Betfair and I think that is too short although I'll concede it's difficult to be confident about any of the others bar Extra Zero who will be on pace and is probably a viable alternative at around 4.50 if it gets there.Nothing here at this stage but I'll monitor and advise via Twitter if I'm playing
Race 3
Hard to be confident here and I think it is a trappy race
Race 4
Again not a race I'm overly enthusiastic about although it's a decent contest.I think Tackleberry deserves to be on top ahead of Mandla,About Square,Tigerland and King Buddy.There are others that you cannot confidently dismiss too so it's difficult
Race 5
Expect both Solicit and Quayside to improve on what they achieve here today as they get out over further.Sensibility,Scratchy Bottom and Girl In Flight are all in my "blackbook" and are better than their current ratings.Solicit is a very classy filly though so marked improvement is needed to overcome her here.Confusing but very interesting race.
Race 6
The Quarterback was a huge run last time and I don't want to oppose but at 4.0 don't want to play either as he always gets back and there is no certain pace here.Hucklebuck is very smart and he'll have first run on The Quarterback.Prince Harada was very heavily backed last time but ran as though the run would improve him.Good race
Race 7
Samaready is a very good fresh horse and overall her form is the strongest.I'm not backing here at 3.20 though as she is a 4 year old Mare resuming and I'd want better odds in those circumstances.Snitzerland is also a 4 year old Mare resuming and her trial was brilliant.Shamexpress is a very good Flemington horse and Bernabeau looked a horse with a big future when blitzing his rival at the Carnival.He's short enough now at 6.0 for what he's achieved but suspect he'll be competitive.
Race 8
Nevis has good UK and Irish form and he makes it hard to be confident about the race.He wasn't a star over there but he gets in on a lenient mark and has run OK around this trip.Great Lane has been steadily progressive before getting too far back last time.
Race 9
Decircles always looks a live hope but is the type of horse that you can never back with real confidence.Hai Lill and Club Command are both live hopes here,Foundry was just off the best 3 year olds in the UK and Ireland last season.He's very well in here although early markets suggest he may be better for the run.He bolted in first up over this trip in Ireland although that was on a wet track
I haven't played early today so if I'm doing anything I'll advise via twitter
Flemington
Race 1
Watch and learn
Race 2
Akzar is favourite here by default as negatives attach to all of the others.He's in to 2.66 now on Betfair and I think that is too short although I'll concede it's difficult to be confident about any of the others bar Extra Zero who will be on pace and is probably a viable alternative at around 4.50 if it gets there.Nothing here at this stage but I'll monitor and advise via Twitter if I'm playing
Race 3
Hard to be confident here and I think it is a trappy race
Race 4
Again not a race I'm overly enthusiastic about although it's a decent contest.I think Tackleberry deserves to be on top ahead of Mandla,About Square,Tigerland and King Buddy.There are others that you cannot confidently dismiss too so it's difficult
Race 5
Expect both Solicit and Quayside to improve on what they achieve here today as they get out over further.Sensibility,Scratchy Bottom and Girl In Flight are all in my "blackbook" and are better than their current ratings.Solicit is a very classy filly though so marked improvement is needed to overcome her here.Confusing but very interesting race.
Race 6
The Quarterback was a huge run last time and I don't want to oppose but at 4.0 don't want to play either as he always gets back and there is no certain pace here.Hucklebuck is very smart and he'll have first run on The Quarterback.Prince Harada was very heavily backed last time but ran as though the run would improve him.Good race
Race 7
Samaready is a very good fresh horse and overall her form is the strongest.I'm not backing here at 3.20 though as she is a 4 year old Mare resuming and I'd want better odds in those circumstances.Snitzerland is also a 4 year old Mare resuming and her trial was brilliant.Shamexpress is a very good Flemington horse and Bernabeau looked a horse with a big future when blitzing his rival at the Carnival.He's short enough now at 6.0 for what he's achieved but suspect he'll be competitive.
Race 8
Nevis has good UK and Irish form and he makes it hard to be confident about the race.He wasn't a star over there but he gets in on a lenient mark and has run OK around this trip.Great Lane has been steadily progressive before getting too far back last time.
Race 9
Decircles always looks a live hope but is the type of horse that you can never back with real confidence.Hai Lill and Club Command are both live hopes here,Foundry was just off the best 3 year olds in the UK and Ireland last season.He's very well in here although early markets suggest he may be better for the run.He bolted in first up over this trip in Ireland although that was on a wet track
I haven't played early today so if I'm doing anything I'll advise via twitter
Thursday 13 February 2014
Moonee Valley Tonight
Moonee Valley posts a Dead 4 and it may upgrade but it's not certain.
I was tied up with family issues yesterday and that carried over into today so I'm a bit frazzled with the distraction and chasing to catch up.Overall this meeting is unappealing and I was tempted to just sack it and get an early night.These Friday evening meetings put a lot of pressure on your time and some weeks they are not that flash from a punting perspective.I'll stick with it tonight but nothing appeals in early markets and any plays I have will probably be "lays".
I wanted to start posting more in depth blogs from this week but events have conspired against me.
Updates via Twitter if there is anything worth passing on
I was tied up with family issues yesterday and that carried over into today so I'm a bit frazzled with the distraction and chasing to catch up.Overall this meeting is unappealing and I was tempted to just sack it and get an early night.These Friday evening meetings put a lot of pressure on your time and some weeks they are not that flash from a punting perspective.I'll stick with it tonight but nothing appeals in early markets and any plays I have will probably be "lays".
I wanted to start posting more in depth blogs from this week but events have conspired against me.
Updates via Twitter if there is anything worth passing on
Tuesday 11 February 2014
Mornigton Cup Day & Kensington (Part Two)
Mornington
Race 8
This is a tricky race.Richies Vibeis an obvious hope having beaten last Saturdays G1 winner Moment Of Change last time.Reading that form literally probably flatters him and he has to lump 60kg's.
Knoydart is progressive but this is another rung up the ladder and the wide gate is a negative.It Is Written is a hope but his progress looks to have flattened out and I prefer him at Moonee Valley.Zamorar and Freereturn are good fresh horses and Don't Get Excited is a hope too.Tricky race.
Race 9
Prince Of Penzance has had his rating raised 14 points for his latest win.Most of these are racing out of the handicap so that hefty rise isn't anything like as relevant here as it would if this was more openly handicapped.Will he run 2400m?It's not a given but he will be very fit now I think it's 70/30 that he will.I thought there were excuses for both He's Your Man and Laidback Larry last time but it's an uphill struggle for both to turn over Prince Of Penzance if he gets the trip.Oregon Spirit has to prove himself at the trip but he was good late last time so he may last out.This is harder than the races in Sydney that Travolta has been going so well in and he has 60kg's.He's very tough though.Intrumentalist,Durnford and Angola wouldn't totally surprise.3.50 Prince Of Penzance is the same as my rated price.No bet for me.
Race 10
Songspur,The Bowler and Cult Of Isis look the most likely.No strong opinions here
Kensington
Not betting here today but there are possibly lays.will advise via Twitter
Race 8
This is a tricky race.Richies Vibeis an obvious hope having beaten last Saturdays G1 winner Moment Of Change last time.Reading that form literally probably flatters him and he has to lump 60kg's.
Knoydart is progressive but this is another rung up the ladder and the wide gate is a negative.It Is Written is a hope but his progress looks to have flattened out and I prefer him at Moonee Valley.Zamorar and Freereturn are good fresh horses and Don't Get Excited is a hope too.Tricky race.
Race 9
Prince Of Penzance has had his rating raised 14 points for his latest win.Most of these are racing out of the handicap so that hefty rise isn't anything like as relevant here as it would if this was more openly handicapped.Will he run 2400m?It's not a given but he will be very fit now I think it's 70/30 that he will.I thought there were excuses for both He's Your Man and Laidback Larry last time but it's an uphill struggle for both to turn over Prince Of Penzance if he gets the trip.Oregon Spirit has to prove himself at the trip but he was good late last time so he may last out.This is harder than the races in Sydney that Travolta has been going so well in and he has 60kg's.He's very tough though.Intrumentalist,Durnford and Angola wouldn't totally surprise.3.50 Prince Of Penzance is the same as my rated price.No bet for me.
Race 10
Songspur,The Bowler and Cult Of Isis look the most likely.No strong opinions here
Kensington
Not betting here today but there are possibly lays.will advise via Twitter
Mornington Cup Day & Kensington Part One
Mornington Cup day and the track is a Dead 4 and it's dry and warm so expect an upgrade.The Kenso track is a Dead 4 and it's drizzly in Sydney so it may not upgrade.
Mornington
Race 1
Son Senoras looks plenty short enough at 1.50 although it's hard to find an alternative.Pass
Race 2
Riviera Red is six weeks between runs after a terrific effort when resuming.I don't like the gap between runs unless I know it's intentional and suspect in this case it may be.The booking of C.Williams suggest confidence and if he's ready to fire he'll be very hard to beat.He's a six year old having only his sixth run so that suggests there have been problems aplenty along the way.All his form is on dead or slower and it may be rattling quick here today.form wise he's well on top but I can't back him at 2.40 but couldn't oppose either.
Race 3
Present Arms deserves to be fav. here after a good run when caught out wide last time.3.30 is the top price and I think that's short.Plenty of hopes here and I wouldn't want to be betting here
Race 4
Shades of Bella is hard to assess accurately after a facile maiden win at Yarra Valley.Written was good winning her maiden and of the two I would marginally prefer her but this is a hard race to get an accurate handle on.
Race 5
Very hard race to assess with any confidence
Race 6
I rarely back 2-y-olds and I'm not interested here
Race 7
Not keen on anything here
I'll look at the last 3 races in a second blog sent in an hour or so.Tweets with late info throughout the afternoon
Mornington
Race 1
Son Senoras looks plenty short enough at 1.50 although it's hard to find an alternative.Pass
Race 2
Riviera Red is six weeks between runs after a terrific effort when resuming.I don't like the gap between runs unless I know it's intentional and suspect in this case it may be.The booking of C.Williams suggest confidence and if he's ready to fire he'll be very hard to beat.He's a six year old having only his sixth run so that suggests there have been problems aplenty along the way.All his form is on dead or slower and it may be rattling quick here today.form wise he's well on top but I can't back him at 2.40 but couldn't oppose either.
Race 3
Present Arms deserves to be fav. here after a good run when caught out wide last time.3.30 is the top price and I think that's short.Plenty of hopes here and I wouldn't want to be betting here
Race 4
Shades of Bella is hard to assess accurately after a facile maiden win at Yarra Valley.Written was good winning her maiden and of the two I would marginally prefer her but this is a hard race to get an accurate handle on.
Race 5
Very hard race to assess with any confidence
Race 6
I rarely back 2-y-olds and I'm not interested here
Race 7
Not keen on anything here
I'll look at the last 3 races in a second blog sent in an hour or so.Tweets with late info throughout the afternoon
Monday 10 February 2014
The Racing Year Ahead
I'm gradually getting back into the groove after a longer than expected break.I had a week's holiday in mid-January and them returned to a week of everything breaking down notably the air conditioning system.I live in the tropics and it's high Summer here so without air con the place is torture.It's working again now but not at 100% until a new part arrives.That coupled with a computer meltdown and the satellite box for the racing channels also going on the blink convinced me to extend my break from the racing.The last couple of days of January I was in hospital for a heart procedure.
February so far has been all catching up and getting up to date with all I've missed and it's harder work than it normally is if your completely involved every day.I haven't backed anything so far this month but I've managed to "lay" a few and only one has won so it's been ok.
I'll be implementing some changes gradually over the next few months and the first change is a more in depth early mail on the Victorian racing four to five days a week depending on the fixture list.
Tomorrow I'll be looking at the Mornington Cup meeting,Thursday Seymour,Friday Moonee Valley and Flemington on Saturday all of these will be complemented by regular afternoon/evening updates on Twitter.
It's full on now in Australia until early June and the UK flat season get's going gradually from the end of March but is in full swing from early May and just as Australia slows down for Winter it's Classic races and Royal Ascot in England.
Looking forward to a very busy and profitable year.
Back tomorrow.
February so far has been all catching up and getting up to date with all I've missed and it's harder work than it normally is if your completely involved every day.I haven't backed anything so far this month but I've managed to "lay" a few and only one has won so it's been ok.
I'll be implementing some changes gradually over the next few months and the first change is a more in depth early mail on the Victorian racing four to five days a week depending on the fixture list.
Tomorrow I'll be looking at the Mornington Cup meeting,Thursday Seymour,Friday Moonee Valley and Flemington on Saturday all of these will be complemented by regular afternoon/evening updates on Twitter.
It's full on now in Australia until early June and the UK flat season get's going gradually from the end of March but is in full swing from early May and just as Australia slows down for Winter it's Classic races and Royal Ascot in England.
Looking forward to a very busy and profitable year.
Back tomorrow.
Friday 7 February 2014
Quality Racing Resumes At Caulfield & Randwick
This is the first blog after a prolonged break-longer than anticipated but more on that earlier next week and a look at what I'll be trying to achieve with the blog this year.
A most challenging day to be returning with lots of high class animals resuming and not fully wound up yet.Extreme heat in Melbourne has things kicking off very early a policy I don't fully see the benefit of to be honest.
Expect dry conditions in both Sydney and Melbourne.Randwick is a Good 3 and Caulfield a Dead 4 but an upgrade seems a formality.
At last we have the decent horses back and there is G1 action every week now for four months in Australia so it's moved quickly from "famine to feast".
No early bets at this stage but some likely "lays" and anything of note will be sent on Twitter.
A most challenging day to be returning with lots of high class animals resuming and not fully wound up yet.Extreme heat in Melbourne has things kicking off very early a policy I don't fully see the benefit of to be honest.
Expect dry conditions in both Sydney and Melbourne.Randwick is a Good 3 and Caulfield a Dead 4 but an upgrade seems a formality.
At last we have the decent horses back and there is G1 action every week now for four months in Australia so it's moved quickly from "famine to feast".
No early bets at this stage but some likely "lays" and anything of note will be sent on Twitter.
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