Flemington's Carnival gets under way with the Victorian Derby the highlight and three other G1's also on the card.Dead 4 posted but with no significant rain around you'd expect an upgrade.After Bendigo on Wednesday when the wrong ground was posted initially and then upgraded but still fell short of accuracy I not entirely convinced that Flemington is a genuine Dead 4.Sam Hyland described it this morning as having "good cover and give".Monitor.
In Sydney Rosehill is a Good 3 and any rain there will be very light so expect fast ground.No early bets at Rosehill but a couple of possibilities so if I'm playing I'll send details via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
I can't oppose Hucklebuck and at around evens I think he's accurately priced.
Race 2
May's Dream has her final's day in the Oaks on Thursday.She's the best horse here and is hard to oppose form wise but if I'm backing one at 2.40 I want to know that it's going round "with all guns blazing".That isn't the case when your main objective comes up in five days time.Pass
Race 3
Kelinni was 11.0 earlier in the week but is now into 6.50.I have him on top in a tricky race but he's about the right price now.This is not an easy race to unravel.No bet for me.
Race 4
Bookies have eased Zoustar out to Evens.He's looked very good in Sydney but I'm not sure he's beaten anything that special yet.Waller has been very bullish about him and that resulted in him been sold earlier in the week for plenty.For the old connections the job is done and it's a good one.The new owners will find out if the got there money's worth this afternoon.Found this race hard to price confidently.Pass
Race 5
I think Jet Away is a bit too short here at 3.0.He's entitled to be on top but at around a point longer I think.I can't emphatically rule anything out in this race.I'm not backing anything but if I was given a free bet I'd have it on Dear Demi at 11.0
Race 6
The wheel is beginning to turn with some nice young horses bred in Australia that actually have decent staying blood in them.Usually when assessing this race the question is will they stay the 2500m.As far as Complacent and Savvy Nature are concerned the answer is a strong probably.I'm not opposing these two but the gates are not good and it's a nightmare start if you draw wide.I still may play here with either or both of these but at this stage I'm not committed.
Race 7
If Red Tracer runs out a strong 1600m then she will be mighty hard to beat.There is enough doubt about her at the trip to stop me getting involved at around 2.80 though.Fire Up Fifi,Catkins,Sharnee Rose and Zonza are all credible alternatives if you wanted to risk the favourite
Race 8
Too hard
Race 9
Too Hard
I'll send Tweets through if there is anything.Enjoy the day but go cautiously it's tricky.
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