Friday 22 November 2013

Saturday's Racing

Perth racing has it's big day today with the Railway and Winterbottom Stakes both at G1.It's a Good fast track at Ascot and the weather is fine and dry.
The Railway Stakes is a very good race this year but not hard to solve punting wise.I think the winner will come from the interstate challengers but really I'm not overly keen on betting on this race.
The Winterbottom is Buffering's race to lose really.He's the clear form pick.Local champion Barakey has at least two lengths to find to be able to beat Buffering at his best.That said I wouldn't be rushing in to take 2.20 about a horse after a hard campaign and a long trip across Australia to the West.
Sydney race on the Kensington circuit so that pre warns you that the card might not be all that flash.Some of the Saturday meeting they serve up in Sydney outside the Spring and Autumn are so substandard it's an embarrassment.It's a Dead 5 there and the forecast rain has just arrived around Sydney.Potentially there could be plenty of rain so it's guesswork as to what conditions will prevail come mid afternoon.I doubt I'll do anything there (backing wise) but if I do I'll send details via Twitter.
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and on the cusp of a Good 3 but there is rain around and whilst it's patchy some of it is quite heavy and it looks like it will persist.Depends how much hits the track-monitor.

Moonee Valley

Race 1
With Mokoro scratched this ought to be easier to solve but it isn't.Not keen on this race at all

Race 2
Thubiaan and Jumping Jack Cash both have 3kg claimers and that probably makes it very hard for the others.Of the two I marginally prefer Thubiaan but surprisingly he's very easy to back (out to 6.0 now with Bet 365).I may play here but I'm not yet committed

Race 3
This race is very ground dependent.If there is rain then the more the better for Double Dee who revelled in the wet conditions when bolting up at Ballarat-she's a rapidly improving mare and is a deserved favourite here.If it stays dry I Thorn Park is a very live hope and at around 7/8.00 i think I would back here if it's a genuinely dry track.Nautical and Chateau Latour are the other main players here.

Race 4
Wrong favourite here.Xavi is preffered in the Market to Lord Durante but I think they should be the other way around.Three runs ago Xavi went off 2.60 around here and was well beaten (there were excuses) racing off a mark of 78.He's up to 82 after a fine effort at Flemington.Lord Durante also ran very well over the Flemington Carnival and was only run down late.I think of the two respective races at Flemington Lord Durante's was marginally the better effort.He should find the lead here today and he's best when he gets left alone in front.He's hard a long campaign and that may be a negative but he does seem very tough and genuine.I have LD at 3.40 and Xavi at 3.80

Advised Bet: Lord Durante 1.50 units at 3.60 or better-take the 4.20 on offer now

Race 5
Should be good pace on here.Planet Voyage is favourite and Argee McLaren next best.As with the previous race I have them marginally the other way around with Argee at 3.70 and Planet V at 3.80.Argee has been a stready drifter so I won't rush in yet but I'll monitor on Betfair.

Advised Bet: Argee McLaren 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair

Race 6
Lot's of chances and very open-no strong opinions here

Race 7
Lot's of hopes and no strong opinions here

Race 8
Not overly keen on this race-very unlikely I'll play here

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