Laying For Profit On Betfair-Part Two

Laying For Profit On Betfair-Part Two.

In Part One I suggested how anyone new to "laying" on Betfair might start out by taking on runners they thought should be at least double figure odds but that they could lay at odds of 8.0 or under.Then if that goes well after a hundred or so lays maybe start taking on runners that you know are live winning hopes but that are shorter odds than your analysis suggests they should be.
In Part Two I'm going to look at how using Trading Software can help you increase your margins. Before I do that I really want to reiterate a couple of cardinal rules that you must keep too if you want to give this a real chance of working for you.

Money Management
This the weakest link in most punters armoury.There are plenty of really sound and knowledgeable judges out there but unless you get totally disciplined around limiting your liabilities to a preset and consistent level the cruel hand of fate will bring you undone eventually.Even if you are the best analyst ever you still have to contend with variance and a host of factors that can conspire at times to make your analysis useless.Making money out of laying is a relentless grind.You have to be resigned to laying plenty of winners and accept it with a shrug if a host of them cluster together and you wipe out all the previous weeks profit in one poor afternoon.Providing you are keeping your liability fixed and consistent and hold your nerve through a rocky run you will gradually claw it back.You simply don't get rich quickly laying.It's five steps forward,four steps back most of the time.
How much of your initial bank you decide to risk each lay depends on how risk averse you are.I could never advise anyone to risk more than 5% per play and only then if you are laying runners over 6.0.If you start taking on favourites you should be risking 3% maximum.That's the percentage I've settled on and I stick to that being my maximum liability each lay.


Analysis and Tissue Prices
How you convert your form analysis into odds is no easy task.If you are used to doing it regularly then you will already know this.However,if you want to have a realistic idea of what is a fair price for any runner in a race then you have to have a clear and balanced idea of the respective odds of the runners in opposition.
If you really don't have the time to do the form thoroughly then use a respected and reliable ratings agency and base your strategy around their figures.Most people selling racing tips and info are shonks but there are some credible operators who have stood the test of time.In Australia the two I can attest to being excellent are Champion Picks based in Melbourne and who seem to mainly concentrate on racing there and Redbelly Sports based in Sydney.Ed Kennett who is the ratings guru at Redbelly used to fill the same role at Champion Picks until a few years ago.I don't agree with their assessments all of the time and sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong but it's a measure of the respect I have for their work that I always review their prices when they post them on their sites after racing.Win or lose they both post their results and over time they both are consistently profitable.
Kennett in particular has an unparallelled handle on NSW racing and is a truly world class operator.I have no professional or financial involvement with either so mine is a totally unbiased and objective opinion.There may be other agencies who are also good but these two publish all their results and I've monitored them for a long time.
In short you have to have a solid and reliable idea of what you think the market should look like before you start getting involved.Something may look very short at say 1.80 but unless you have an accurate handle on the opposition you are really just guessing.Guessing won't cut it so there is no easy solution it's either put the time in and do the hard yards yourself or pay for ratings that you can trust to get results over time.

Trading Software & Odds Comparison

Anyone attempting to use Betfair seriously must have trading software.If you don't have it you are at a big disadvantage and cannot do any of the trades that will help you maximise your profits.
The three most popular that I am aware of are Bet Angel Pro,Racing Traders Evolution and Geeks Toy.I think Bet Angel has the most features and applications particularly for sports trading and is the most expensive of the three.I've used Racing Traders Evolution for a while and I'm used to it and cannot see a good reason to change.I pay ten UK pounds a month (A$18) and it's fantastic value.It's doesn't matter which one you choose as all do the same job but even if you are only playing at the weekend you'll never want to be without it once you have got used to it.Be careful with it at the beginning or you'll get burn't.It's very simple and easy to use once you get used to it a bit like riding a bike but expect to be wobbly when you start.All have how to use guides and all is explained in them but do be cautious initially until you are sure of what you are doing.
If you are backing or laying you have to know what's being offered in any market.Dynamic Odds is a fantastic product that has all major bookies odds plus Betfair and the TAB's.It updates every few seconds so you can see at a glance what's being offered and by whom.Like the trading software once you are used to it you'll never want to be without it.It cost's $30 a month and is a must have if you are a serious player.

Trader Laying To Increase Profits

Betfair markets on Australian racing have very little liquidity early ( except for Saturdays and major race days) and really don't start to develop until around 10mins out from start time.The liquidity gradually increases but I would say that around 80% of the business in done in the last couple of minutes.During those last two minutes there often is very little differential between what's been offered on Betfair (after commission is taken in to account) and what's available amongst the bookies and the TAB's-this is particularly the case at the front end of the market.Getting your lay bet in early really is the only way to be ahead of the market.You have to move before the market does but you also cannot be sure that the market will always moved the way you believe it should.If you want to increase your profits from laying you need to use leverage to do you.Here's a simple example:
10 minutes out from the start the favourite is at evens (2.0).Your analysis suggests that it should be at least 2.50 and that 2.0 is big unders.You have a lay liability of $100 each time you play so you are happy to lay the favourite at evens for $100.You think the favourite will blow/drift so you have another $100 at evens hoping to offload this liability at a more realistic price as the market develops.Your initial assessment proves correct and the price moves out to 2.50 at which point you back it for $66.66.If the favourite wins you have still only lost your original $100 but if it gets beat then your profit has increased from the original $100 to $133.33.
This is a very simplistic example but it illustrates how your margins will increase if you can call the market early.Getting in early is the only way that you will get the opportunity to take advantage of such a major market shift but it also leaves you exposed if the market confounds you and moves against you.Looking at the example above what should you do if the favourite shortened into 1.90?
Well you thought evens was unders and you were happy to lay it at that price believing it ought to be at least 2.50 so leave your original $100 lay in play but accept the trade hasn't worked and have $111 on the favourite at 1.90.If the favourite wins you have lost $100.10 and if it gets beat you have won $89.What you mustn't do is allow the odds to shorten further by hesitating.Accept the trade didn't work and get out quick.
As I said this is a simplistic example and the reality is far from simple but the principal of buying at one price and selling for more is the basis of all trade and it's simply a matter of getting it right most if not all of the time.
In Part Three I'm going to look at techniques for getting into the market and exiting and what you can reasonably expect to achieve if you are proving to be ok at it