Flemington is a Good 3 and it's generally dry with a slight chance of a little rain but doubt even if it comes it will make any great difference.
Rosehill is a Slow 6 but drying all the time. May upgrade.
The few weeks I had away from the racing at the end of last year gave me a chance to formulate some new statergies. This month I've been trying out some new ideas. Just because things work well initially doesn't mean they will continue to do so but I really have had an excellent month trying out these new ideas. Hopefully it won't be a flash in the pan. This game has changed so much in the last few years and you constantly have to be evolving or the pack will catch you up and pass you.
Racing looks very tough to call at Rosehill and I can offer nothing there of any worth.
Flemington has a few shorties that look hard to oppose but offer no value at current quotes namely Lucky Liberty, Better Land and Tonopah. Akzar probably falls into the same catergory although I might be tempted to back him if he got out to 3.0 but that looks unlikely.
I generally have very few bets in January but it's been a drought this month. I don't put up anything on the blog unless I'm definitely backing it myself.
Next blog will be Wednesday with metro meeting at Sandown and Canterbury
Friday 30 January 2015
Sunday 25 January 2015
Australia Day Racing at Sandown & Canterbury
Both Sandown and Canterbury post Good 3. There's been a bit of rain around Melbourne this morning and may be a bit more to come but I doubt it will alter the state of the track too much. Canterbury has a fair bit of rain forecast for today but it hasn't arrived yet and currently the radar is clear. Monitor conditions there later but at the moment things look fine.
I did some research last year going through my figures over many years and they confirmed what I suspected which was that I was showing a modest loss overall on bets placed on public holidays. The natural conclusion to that is to take these days off like the majority of people. Those results were only on back bets though and as I now do most of my business on the "lay" side of the exchange it hopefully makes sense to carry on.
Canterbury shapes up as a pretty unappealing card overall although in the last there Ay No Digas resumes of a handicap mark of 69. I think this horse has some scope to rate a fair bit higher than that and the booking of Bowman is interesting. He's shortened a bit in early markets and providing the track is dry come post time I might be tempted to have a bit on him. Not committed at this stage.
Sandown has a very good card with some decent horses in action.
Race 1
I'm not betting here but I did think that the two at the top of the market Taiyoo and Practised were both a bit of unders. Taiyoo has to step up to an unproven 2400m and Practised rises from BM78 grade to open company.
Race 2
I like The Quarterback but he'll have his work cut out here to beat Shamal Wind who makes a fair bit of appeal here with Dwayne Dunn engaged. Her only fresh miss was last prep when she was bailed up throughout around the Valley. I wish there was some genuine speed in this race but it's a bit inconclusive and it looks like a sit and sprint affair. Both Shamal Wind and The Quarterback are closers so passing is probably the wisest option.
Race 6
This is a good race and it will be a strong form reference for the coming weeks. If Fast Cash can run out 1300m than he'll be hard to beat here as he's fit and flying. He looked very strong to the line at the Valley over 1200m but he did have a "bludge"run there. 1400m found him out at Flemington at the end of his last prep (could have had enough by then) and the pedigree is all speed. Gate 2 may not be any great help to him either as he's got outpaced early in races before. If this was 1200m I'd be playing at 3.70 but I think it's only evens him running out the trip so I think I'm going to pass with a few promising ones opposing.
With Saturday's bet scratched I'm still to get going betting wise this year. Sorry it's all ultra cautious stuff so far but things will pick up soon enough
I did some research last year going through my figures over many years and they confirmed what I suspected which was that I was showing a modest loss overall on bets placed on public holidays. The natural conclusion to that is to take these days off like the majority of people. Those results were only on back bets though and as I now do most of my business on the "lay" side of the exchange it hopefully makes sense to carry on.
Canterbury shapes up as a pretty unappealing card overall although in the last there Ay No Digas resumes of a handicap mark of 69. I think this horse has some scope to rate a fair bit higher than that and the booking of Bowman is interesting. He's shortened a bit in early markets and providing the track is dry come post time I might be tempted to have a bit on him. Not committed at this stage.
Sandown has a very good card with some decent horses in action.
Race 1
I'm not betting here but I did think that the two at the top of the market Taiyoo and Practised were both a bit of unders. Taiyoo has to step up to an unproven 2400m and Practised rises from BM78 grade to open company.
Race 2
I like The Quarterback but he'll have his work cut out here to beat Shamal Wind who makes a fair bit of appeal here with Dwayne Dunn engaged. Her only fresh miss was last prep when she was bailed up throughout around the Valley. I wish there was some genuine speed in this race but it's a bit inconclusive and it looks like a sit and sprint affair. Both Shamal Wind and The Quarterback are closers so passing is probably the wisest option.
Race 6
This is a good race and it will be a strong form reference for the coming weeks. If Fast Cash can run out 1300m than he'll be hard to beat here as he's fit and flying. He looked very strong to the line at the Valley over 1200m but he did have a "bludge"run there. 1400m found him out at Flemington at the end of his last prep (could have had enough by then) and the pedigree is all speed. Gate 2 may not be any great help to him either as he's got outpaced early in races before. If this was 1200m I'd be playing at 3.70 but I think it's only evens him running out the trip so I think I'm going to pass with a few promising ones opposing.
With Saturday's bet scratched I'm still to get going betting wise this year. Sorry it's all ultra cautious stuff so far but things will pick up soon enough
Friday 23 January 2015
Moonee Valley & Randwick Today
Moonee Valley posts a Good 4 and Randwick a Good 3. Temperatures touching the high twenties and sunny is the forecast for both venues so fast summer ground looks likely.
The card at Moonne Valley is very challenging and there are no bets there.
The feature is the G2 Australia Stakes and Dissident who snagged two G1's last prep resumes. Bookies are offering 1.85 currently but I expect they will want to lay him so no surprise to see "black" figures. On the ratings he's well clear but resuming at 1200m around here and with bigger targets ahead it should be an easy decision for smart punters to pass.
At Randwick in Race 2 Meursault looks very hard to beat but the value has dried up now and Evens looks about the right price.
Race 3 has a strong favourite in Centre Pivot who's having a great prep and produced a career best last time. He's up 6 points for that which is fair enough so easily did he win but more pertinently up 300m in trip. He was strong late last time but the extra distance is a serious query and I rate his chance of running it out at 65%. That's enough to put me off at 2.20 so passing here.
Race 6 is the Listed Australia Day Cup. Oriental Lady's is the obvious after a strong finishing second in the Gosford Cup but I'd want better than current quotes to be interested and really these distance races in Sydney are a graveyard for punters especially if you backing horses that settle off the pace.
Race 7 is another Listed contest this time over a more appealing 1400m.
Spurtonic follows up from his good win at the Magic Millions.He has a dodgy gate to overcome but is only up a point for his last win so if he get's the breaks he's a chance.
A fully fit Ninth Legion would be a serious hope but he may just need the comeback run.
That's A Good Idea almost downed the very promising Ball Of Muscle at Gosford last time but he looks short enough to me at 3.70.
She's Clean was ultra impressive last time coming from last and leaving a weaker field than this in her wake. She was very strong in the market that day which suggests that she must have been going very well at home.Her record at Randwick is good and a repeat of her latest effort ( not at all guaranteed with a 6-y-old mare) will make her very hard to beat. I have her rated 3.50 here and 4.0 is on offer this morning. You should be able to get better than that as the market fluctuates.
Advised Bet: She's Clean 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-monitor betting don't go in too early look for >4.0 at least
The card at Moonne Valley is very challenging and there are no bets there.
The feature is the G2 Australia Stakes and Dissident who snagged two G1's last prep resumes. Bookies are offering 1.85 currently but I expect they will want to lay him so no surprise to see "black" figures. On the ratings he's well clear but resuming at 1200m around here and with bigger targets ahead it should be an easy decision for smart punters to pass.
At Randwick in Race 2 Meursault looks very hard to beat but the value has dried up now and Evens looks about the right price.
Race 3 has a strong favourite in Centre Pivot who's having a great prep and produced a career best last time. He's up 6 points for that which is fair enough so easily did he win but more pertinently up 300m in trip. He was strong late last time but the extra distance is a serious query and I rate his chance of running it out at 65%. That's enough to put me off at 2.20 so passing here.
Race 6 is the Listed Australia Day Cup. Oriental Lady's is the obvious after a strong finishing second in the Gosford Cup but I'd want better than current quotes to be interested and really these distance races in Sydney are a graveyard for punters especially if you backing horses that settle off the pace.
Race 7 is another Listed contest this time over a more appealing 1400m.
Spurtonic follows up from his good win at the Magic Millions.He has a dodgy gate to overcome but is only up a point for his last win so if he get's the breaks he's a chance.
A fully fit Ninth Legion would be a serious hope but he may just need the comeback run.
That's A Good Idea almost downed the very promising Ball Of Muscle at Gosford last time but he looks short enough to me at 3.70.
She's Clean was ultra impressive last time coming from last and leaving a weaker field than this in her wake. She was very strong in the market that day which suggests that she must have been going very well at home.Her record at Randwick is good and a repeat of her latest effort ( not at all guaranteed with a 6-y-old mare) will make her very hard to beat. I have her rated 3.50 here and 4.0 is on offer this morning. You should be able to get better than that as the market fluctuates.
Advised Bet: She's Clean 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-monitor betting don't go in too early look for >4.0 at least
Friday 16 January 2015
Flemington & Randwick Today
Early rain around Melbourne has generally cleared although a possibility of light showers remains. Good 3 is the posting and doubt that changes even if a little rain does hit the track.
Randwick is a Good 3 and it's a fine sunny day there so fast Summer ground is the order of the day.
I took six weeks away from the racing and it's felt like six months this week. Summer racing in Australia is very moderate stuff and it's hard work ploughing through the form when the horses are so ordinary. I've pushed myself hard this week to stick with it but I've only managed to do around 20% of the business I would usually do in a normal week. What I have managed to do has worked thankfully but it's been a grind.
I'm giving Randwick a wide bearth today I just can't get an solid hand on the racing there today. The ones that look sound hopes are all too short for me to be interested.
Flemington is at least an interesting card but very tough. I'm not putting any bets up again this week I think I'll need another week back at least before I feel confident enough to be trying to persude anyone to follow anything I'm backing. The ones I did look seriously at are Zanteco in Race 1, Bayoonah in Race 3, and Simply You in Race 6.
Zanteco was 6.0 earlier in the week and is now top priced 4.40 which is about right.
Bayoonah was 6.0 earlier which would have been very appealing but at 3.0 now she's short enough coming out of a maiden into Saturday grade. She's 1100m to 1400m here and will eat up the extra distance and is definitely the one to beat.
Simply You went back from a wide draw at the Valley and was never going to bridge the gap thereafter. Her closing sectionals were excellent though and I can't see her getting too far back today. At around 4.50 she borderline value but I might be tempted to back her if she gets out to >5.0
That's as much as I can help anyone with today. Things will pick up gradually and we are only four weeks away from G1 racing returning so the better animals will be resuming shortly
Randwick is a Good 3 and it's a fine sunny day there so fast Summer ground is the order of the day.
I took six weeks away from the racing and it's felt like six months this week. Summer racing in Australia is very moderate stuff and it's hard work ploughing through the form when the horses are so ordinary. I've pushed myself hard this week to stick with it but I've only managed to do around 20% of the business I would usually do in a normal week. What I have managed to do has worked thankfully but it's been a grind.
I'm giving Randwick a wide bearth today I just can't get an solid hand on the racing there today. The ones that look sound hopes are all too short for me to be interested.
Flemington is at least an interesting card but very tough. I'm not putting any bets up again this week I think I'll need another week back at least before I feel confident enough to be trying to persude anyone to follow anything I'm backing. The ones I did look seriously at are Zanteco in Race 1, Bayoonah in Race 3, and Simply You in Race 6.
Zanteco was 6.0 earlier in the week and is now top priced 4.40 which is about right.
Bayoonah was 6.0 earlier which would have been very appealing but at 3.0 now she's short enough coming out of a maiden into Saturday grade. She's 1100m to 1400m here and will eat up the extra distance and is definitely the one to beat.
Simply You went back from a wide draw at the Valley and was never going to bridge the gap thereafter. Her closing sectionals were excellent though and I can't see her getting too far back today. At around 4.50 she borderline value but I might be tempted to back her if she gets out to >5.0
That's as much as I can help anyone with today. Things will pick up gradually and we are only four weeks away from G1 racing returning so the better animals will be resuming shortly
Tuesday 13 January 2015
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Both Sandown and Canterbury post a Soft 5. Both are likely to dry out as the day goes on particularly Canterbury which has a hot dry day ahead so no surprise to see an upgrade to Good there.
Both cards fail to appeal from a betting point of view and there are no bets today.
In race 3 at Sandown The Red Horse is the one that I think will have more to offer. 10.0 was on offer when betting opened and he was cut almost immediately. He's got good wet track form and most would have expected Sandown today to be wetter looking at the forecast on Monday evening when betting opened. His return effort last week was good and the quick back up and the extra 200m are encouraging. The bare form around him suggests 6.0 is no value with a wide gate in a race of indeterminate pace. He may ease in the market with the drying track. I can't put him up as a bet as the bare figures suggest he is just a hope in a difficult race but my gut feeling is he'll be around the money.
Both cards fail to appeal from a betting point of view and there are no bets today.
In race 3 at Sandown The Red Horse is the one that I think will have more to offer. 10.0 was on offer when betting opened and he was cut almost immediately. He's got good wet track form and most would have expected Sandown today to be wetter looking at the forecast on Monday evening when betting opened. His return effort last week was good and the quick back up and the extra 200m are encouraging. The bare form around him suggests 6.0 is no value with a wide gate in a race of indeterminate pace. He may ease in the market with the drying track. I can't put him up as a bet as the bare figures suggest he is just a hope in a difficult race but my gut feeling is he'll be around the money.
Friday 9 January 2015
Magic Millions at the Gold Coast, Flemington and Randwick
This is the first blog of 2015 and I am slowly getting back into the swing of things after taking a few weeks away from the racing. I've also relocated and am back living in Melbourne now.
I had hoped to be back on top on things by now but wading through replays for days on end still doesn't leave me feeling I'm completely back in the groove just yet.
Magic Millions day up on the Gold Coast and this is not a meeting I can ever manage to get too enthused about despite the money that's on offer. I had a scan through the races there and it looks potentially a bookies benefit especially with a fair bit of juice in the ground. If your playing there today good luck but I'll definitely be staying out.
Tough cards at both Flemington and Randwick today both offering typical off season Saturday cards.
The only races that interested me today were races 5 and 8 at Flemington.
Flemington
Race 5
Quite tight and not easy to be confident but I thought Turnitaround's chance was every bit as strong as Lord Athernaeum and a bit stronger than Von Classic Hero. I'm not putting up any bets today as I'm not confident my figures are as accurate as I'd normally judge them to be but if I do end up backing anything today it will be this one.
Race 8
The Quarterback is definitely the one to beat here but 3.20 is a bit thin so I won't be playing at those odds. He was good at Flemington on New Year's Day. There looks to be enough pace here on paper to suit him but the pace on the straight course at Flemington doesn't always pan out how you think and it would be no surprise if they ended up going steady here. Passing.
Unfortunately I haven't got much of worth to pass on today but things will pick up soon enough.
I had hoped to be back on top on things by now but wading through replays for days on end still doesn't leave me feeling I'm completely back in the groove just yet.
Magic Millions day up on the Gold Coast and this is not a meeting I can ever manage to get too enthused about despite the money that's on offer. I had a scan through the races there and it looks potentially a bookies benefit especially with a fair bit of juice in the ground. If your playing there today good luck but I'll definitely be staying out.
Tough cards at both Flemington and Randwick today both offering typical off season Saturday cards.
The only races that interested me today were races 5 and 8 at Flemington.
Flemington
Race 5
Quite tight and not easy to be confident but I thought Turnitaround's chance was every bit as strong as Lord Athernaeum and a bit stronger than Von Classic Hero. I'm not putting up any bets today as I'm not confident my figures are as accurate as I'd normally judge them to be but if I do end up backing anything today it will be this one.
Race 8
The Quarterback is definitely the one to beat here but 3.20 is a bit thin so I won't be playing at those odds. He was good at Flemington on New Year's Day. There looks to be enough pace here on paper to suit him but the pace on the straight course at Flemington doesn't always pan out how you think and it would be no surprise if they ended up going steady here. Passing.
Unfortunately I haven't got much of worth to pass on today but things will pick up soon enough.
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