Last day of Melbourne's Spring Carnival at Caulfield (transferred from Sandown which is closed for renervations).Track is posted a Dead 4 and there is a hint it may be a tad slower than that to begin with.Dry day so normally you'd expect an upgrade.Monitor.
Rosehill is a Dead 5 and there are some very heavy showers around which will have a serious impact on conditions if they hit.Monitor.
With the uncertainty regarding Rosehill there is little point in going off early there as at this stage it's pure guesswork as to the conditions that will prevail as the day wears on.
At Caulfield the early races are very obvious to sort and as a result the markets are very tight to my figures.I think Caravan Rolls On is very hard to beat in Race 2 IF it's a genuinely dry track.S.Hyland reported this morning that the track had "plenty of give in it".Until Race 8 the markets otherwise are offering little varience to what I have at least on anything I might be tempted to back.
Race 8 has Platelet as a well backed favourite at around 3.30 which looks plenty short enough now.I thought around 4.20 was the mark for her.There are a few hopes here but overall it's not a race I'm comfortable with.
In Race 9 I thought the first two in betting were both definite unders.Floria seems well treated but I think 1400m is her best trip and 2.80 looks woeful unders.>4.0 surely.Likewise Wistful who on official ratings has to find 17 points to be competitive here.That official rating was raised by 15 points after her easy win at Flemington.So she needs 32 points of improvement from her October win in Sydney in a NMW event.That Flemington race despite being at the Carnival wasn't a very strong race and she's too short at 6.0-has a poor gate too.
Markets will fluctuate and opportunities may present later but no bets at this stage.If I'm playing details sent via twitter as early as possible.
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