Goodwood Day Three and dry overnight and no rain around so expect good fast racing ground.
Only two bets so far and it's hard to find value in horses I want to back.
Race 1
Good 3-y-old handicap.
I like Roseburg and he looks better than a handicapper to me. His form is on good ground or softer though and he has an action that suggest juice in the ground will serve him best. I don't want to oppose him as I have no hard evidence that he won't handle fast ground but it's enough of a niggle to stop me backing him here. The other obvious two here Astronereus and Rainbow Rock are also slight doubts on fast ground.Otherwise it's very open so I have to pass here.
Race 2
2-y-old G2 over Six Furlongs
Ivawood was dominant at the July meeting and has no more to do here and should follow up and is long odds on to do so. He looks like he's ready for 7 furlongs now and this is a quick 6 so that is a slight negative.Pass
Race 3
Goodwood Cup G2 Two Miles
This is not an easy one to solve although Estimate's Gold Cup second entitles her to head the market but at 3.0 she's a bit short. Brown Panther is better suited this trip than in the Gold Cup but fast ground is not really ideal for him and he was a bit below his best in France last time.Cavalryman is racing well this year and probable gets to dominate so you have to rate him. Angel Gabriel deserves a crack at this grade and he's a fast improving stayer against some who been around for a long time. The very talented but exasperating Brass Ring lurks around 20.0 and might surprise many but not me.
Still thinking about this race-may do something here
Race 4
Distaff G3 over One Mile and Six Furlongs
Missunited comes here off a career best effort in the Gold Cup.This week last year she was winning the Galway Hurdle so I assume she could have chosen that option again rather than this. She's mighty tough and versatile and has a chance.She did benefit from a very good enterprising ride from J.Crowley at Ascot and the bare figures probably flatter her a bit. Doubt she'll dominate here either as the German mare Nymphea usually leads. Talent has the best overall form but she's hard to back as she is inconsistent. Waila is a possible but I couldn't back her. Stella Bellissima was a very taking winner of her maiden.Maiden to G2 is a huge leap but Gosden trains and he's a master placer. She from a very smart staying family and I doubt she'll be far away. Not playing here
Race 6
7 Furlong Handicap for 3-y-olds
Open race but there is one here that I've been waiting for in Secret Hint .There are three negatives that might force her price out a bit. The first is the gate -she's drawn wide and will need luck,secondly she's 4lb out of the handicap on official figures (but not mine) and thirdly she's not a very big filly and may be perceived to lack scope. She's got a mark of 80 here and that's very lenient-I'm hoping she drifts a bit. Haven't done anything here yet
Race 7
9 Furlong Apprentice Handicap.
Expect they'll run along here.It's very open but I do like Balmoral Castle and he's thriving at the moment.He has to improve a bit more to win this but a fast run race around this trip is just what he wants and the boy who's riding him gets on well with him.He's around 6.0 on Betfair now and that's about right-not committed at the moment
Sorry no early bets but I see no point in committing early unless you see a definite advantage in doing so.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Wednesday 30 July 2014
Goodwood Day Two - July Newsletter # 22
Good to Firm at Goodwood for Sussex Stakes Day.
Apologies but I'm unwell today and am now off to bed. If I feel up to it I will get up for racing but there are no early bets today and no newsletter analysis.
If I do manage to get up again any Bets (unlikely)/Updates will be sent via Twitter
Apologies but I'm unwell today and am now off to bed. If I feel up to it I will get up for racing but there are no early bets today and no newsletter analysis.
If I do manage to get up again any Bets (unlikely)/Updates will be sent via Twitter
Tuesday 29 July 2014
Geelong & Warwick Farm Today--July Newsletter # 21
Geelong Synthetic is the midweek offering from RVL this week-go figure!
Warwick Farm is a Dead 4 but a dry warm day in western Sydney should bring about an update.
There is one possible bet at Geelong and a couple of possibilities at Warwick Farm on top of the two early ones
Warwick Farm
Race 3
I tweeted through an early bet on Cocktail Time earlier advising to take the 3.10.As that has now gone this bet will be included in the tweeted bets for record keeping purposes.Improving type ,will be on pace, rider big value for 3kg's claim-rated 2.65 MAX-3.10 was big overs and is now 2.90 top which is still good value.
Advised Bet: Cocktail Time 1.90 units at 2.75 or better
Race 5
It took Sunday Too Far a while to get the winning habit but she has taken off of late.Good in Saturday frade last time and back out to 1600m suits her more than some of her main rivals who may struggle at the trip. Should lead. I have favourite at 5.50 but 8.50 is on offer and she has drifted
Advised Bet: Sunday Too Far 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-have 33% at the 8.50 if you can get it and monitor with the balance
Probably more today and any further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Warwick Farm is a Dead 4 but a dry warm day in western Sydney should bring about an update.
There is one possible bet at Geelong and a couple of possibilities at Warwick Farm on top of the two early ones
Warwick Farm
Race 3
I tweeted through an early bet on Cocktail Time earlier advising to take the 3.10.As that has now gone this bet will be included in the tweeted bets for record keeping purposes.Improving type ,will be on pace, rider big value for 3kg's claim-rated 2.65 MAX-3.10 was big overs and is now 2.90 top which is still good value.
Advised Bet: Cocktail Time 1.90 units at 2.75 or better
Race 5
It took Sunday Too Far a while to get the winning habit but she has taken off of late.Good in Saturday frade last time and back out to 1600m suits her more than some of her main rivals who may struggle at the trip. Should lead. I have favourite at 5.50 but 8.50 is on offer and she has drifted
Advised Bet: Sunday Too Far 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-have 33% at the 8.50 if you can get it and monitor with the balance
Probably more today and any further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Goodwood- Day One - July Newsletter # 20
A really excellent weeks racing ahead as the Goodwood meeting gets under way today. The going is Good,Good to Firm in places. I hope it hasn't been over watered to accommodate Kingman tomorrow.
It really ought to be Good to Firm period to start with.
Race 1
A rattling good handicap to kick things off but not an easy one to sort out. No strong opinions here and watching not playing.
Race 2
Group 3 dash for 2-y-olds. Cotai Glory ran well behind a very smart one last time and drops back to 5 furlongs here.He's a bit hard to evaluate accurately but he's a fair price against the odds on Beacon. Beacon represents the Hannon team and they are so strong in the 2-y-old races. Mukmal looks the other hope.Passing here
Race 3
Toormore was the top rated juvenile last season but he's failed at G1 level in both the Guineas and the St. James Palace so he does have some questions to answer here. Garswood won this last year and this his the right level for him. I think Toormore is far the most likely but I wouldn't want to back him at around the current 2.20
Race 4
Good stayers handicap but without a lot of obvious pace so I'm happy to be with Dashing Star he will be up front and will be well suited to a return to this trip. Havana Cooler is ahead of him in the market and I respect him but I don't see why he's favourite ahead of Dashing Star who ought to be.
Big Thunder is weak in betting but would be a live chance if back to his best.Quite keen here.
Advised Bet: Dashing Star 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-7.50 on offer is good value if you can get it
Race 5 is an interesting C2 maiden and races 6 and 7 are both impossible complex C3 handicaps that I no strong opinions about at this stage.
Updates and any further bets sent via Twitter
It really ought to be Good to Firm period to start with.
Race 1
A rattling good handicap to kick things off but not an easy one to sort out. No strong opinions here and watching not playing.
Race 2
Group 3 dash for 2-y-olds. Cotai Glory ran well behind a very smart one last time and drops back to 5 furlongs here.He's a bit hard to evaluate accurately but he's a fair price against the odds on Beacon. Beacon represents the Hannon team and they are so strong in the 2-y-old races. Mukmal looks the other hope.Passing here
Race 3
Toormore was the top rated juvenile last season but he's failed at G1 level in both the Guineas and the St. James Palace so he does have some questions to answer here. Garswood won this last year and this his the right level for him. I think Toormore is far the most likely but I wouldn't want to back him at around the current 2.20
Race 4
Good stayers handicap but without a lot of obvious pace so I'm happy to be with Dashing Star he will be up front and will be well suited to a return to this trip. Havana Cooler is ahead of him in the market and I respect him but I don't see why he's favourite ahead of Dashing Star who ought to be.
Big Thunder is weak in betting but would be a live chance if back to his best.Quite keen here.
Advised Bet: Dashing Star 0.90 units at 5.70 or better-7.50 on offer is good value if you can get it
Race 5 is an interesting C2 maiden and races 6 and 7 are both impossible complex C3 handicaps that I no strong opinions about at this stage.
Updates and any further bets sent via Twitter
Monday 28 July 2014
Weekly Round Up - July Newsletter # 19
A very solid week . Here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- Bet in 1 race- 1 winner
Stakes 1.45
Profit 7.25 units
Bets advised via Twitter-bets in 9 races- 3 winners
Stakes 11.45
Profit 8.58 units
Weekly total for Australia Profit 15.83 units
UK
Bets in the blog-None
Bets advised via Twitter- Bets in 3 races-1 winner
Stakes 3.50
Profit 2.50 units
Weekly total for UK Profit 2.50 units
Overall total for the week PROFIT 18.33 units
Fantastic week ahead at Goodwood and the UK newsletter looking at Tuesday's racing will be out in a few hours
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- Bet in 1 race- 1 winner
Stakes 1.45
Profit 7.25 units
Bets advised via Twitter-bets in 9 races- 3 winners
Stakes 11.45
Profit 8.58 units
Weekly total for Australia Profit 15.83 units
UK
Bets in the blog-None
Bets advised via Twitter- Bets in 3 races-1 winner
Stakes 3.50
Profit 2.50 units
Weekly total for UK Profit 2.50 units
Overall total for the week PROFIT 18.33 units
Fantastic week ahead at Goodwood and the UK newsletter looking at Tuesday's racing will be out in a few hours
Saturday 26 July 2014
King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot - July Newsletter # 18
Ascot copped some heavy rain yesterday and the ground is Good to Soft,Good in places. There is no rain around today at least until late in the day and it should be drying out quickly. Fast ground at the other afternoon venues at Newcastle,Newmarket and York.
Ascot
King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes
This race has been in decline over recent years with the top 3-y-olds generally giving it a miss.Only one 3-y-old has won in recent years the John Gosden trained Nathaniel. Gosden plays a strong hand here running his best 3-y-olds the Oaks winner Taghooda and the impressive Royal Ascot winner Eagle Top plus the Derby third Romsdal. The presence of these high class 3-y-olds gives the race this year more of a championship look although it would have been good to see dual Derby winner Australia line up too. Telescope, Magician and Trading Leather head the 4-y-old challenge.
It's a very open looking race and only Leiter Mor would totally surprise.
Eagle Top created a huge impression last time and he's on top for me but I'd hoped he might start a bit bigger than the current 5.50. Not committed at the moment.
Very tough and tricky today and there are definite possibilities but I'm not yet committed to anything anywhere at this stage.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Ascot
King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes
This race has been in decline over recent years with the top 3-y-olds generally giving it a miss.Only one 3-y-old has won in recent years the John Gosden trained Nathaniel. Gosden plays a strong hand here running his best 3-y-olds the Oaks winner Taghooda and the impressive Royal Ascot winner Eagle Top plus the Derby third Romsdal. The presence of these high class 3-y-olds gives the race this year more of a championship look although it would have been good to see dual Derby winner Australia line up too. Telescope, Magician and Trading Leather head the 4-y-old challenge.
It's a very open looking race and only Leiter Mor would totally surprise.
Eagle Top created a huge impression last time and he's on top for me but I'd hoped he might start a bit bigger than the current 5.50. Not committed at the moment.
Very tough and tricky today and there are definite possibilities but I'm not yet committed to anything anywhere at this stage.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Friday 25 July 2014
Caulfield & Kensington Today - July Newsletter # 17
Caulfield is a Dead 5 and the Kenso track at Randwick is a Dead 4. It's been raining a bit around both locations this morning and there is still a chance of more light rain. No upgrades but doubt conditions are to wet either.
I thought I was going to have post today without any early bets after Sir John Hawkwood was scratched in the last at Caulfield. However the scratchings have changed that race a lot and I'm now very keen to play.
Caulfield
Race 8
Lord Durante has to prove he can run out the extra 200m here but I doubt it'll be a problem.A soft lead awaits him here and hopefully he takes it. Gauci always rode this horse from the front but since he lost the ride they have been sitting on pace but not leading. Surely they will go to the front today as there is no other speed. If I was certain he was leading I'd have this shorter but even sitting second or third on a dawdling tempo he should have too much toe for these
Advised Bet: Lord Durante 1.45 units at 3.60 or better-is 5.50 with Bet365 which is big overs-they seem keen to lay it so maybe there is a negative I'm unaware of. Have 50% of the stake now and monitor betting before having balance.
There are few possibilities today if markets open up a little and the rain isn't too severe.Sorry it's light on early bets but that's how it is.
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter throughout the afternoon
King George and Queen Elizabeth Day at Ascot later today and the UK newsletter will be out in a few hours
I thought I was going to have post today without any early bets after Sir John Hawkwood was scratched in the last at Caulfield. However the scratchings have changed that race a lot and I'm now very keen to play.
Caulfield
Race 8
Lord Durante has to prove he can run out the extra 200m here but I doubt it'll be a problem.A soft lead awaits him here and hopefully he takes it. Gauci always rode this horse from the front but since he lost the ride they have been sitting on pace but not leading. Surely they will go to the front today as there is no other speed. If I was certain he was leading I'd have this shorter but even sitting second or third on a dawdling tempo he should have too much toe for these
Advised Bet: Lord Durante 1.45 units at 3.60 or better-is 5.50 with Bet365 which is big overs-they seem keen to lay it so maybe there is a negative I'm unaware of. Have 50% of the stake now and monitor betting before having balance.
There are few possibilities today if markets open up a little and the rain isn't too severe.Sorry it's light on early bets but that's how it is.
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter throughout the afternoon
King George and Queen Elizabeth Day at Ascot later today and the UK newsletter will be out in a few hours
Tuesday 22 July 2014
Caulfield & Canterbury Today - July Newsletter # 16
Caulfield is posted a Slow 6 and it's a dry day so there is a possibility that it may get an upgrade depending on how accurate the initial reading is.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and a dry day in Sydney so expect good fast racing ground.
I have unavoidable commitments late afternoon today so I haven't looked too closely at the last two races from each meeting. Nevertheless there are three of interest today:
Caulfield
The early races here don't make much appeal betting wise with markets as they are now.
Race 5
A few go forward here and I thought that fact might hold up the price about Hard Romp who is on top on my figures. I've missed the 4.60 offered this morning and he's now close to where he should be at around 3.80. I have him rated 3.50. He caught a tartar last time but beat the rest of the field easily enough.I've had a 50% on at 4.0 and will wait to see how the market moves before committing anymore.
Advised Bet: Hard Romp 1,45 units at 3.70 or better-take the 3.90 now for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.
Canterbury
Race 4
There looks to be a false favourite here in Emerald City who ran away with C1 event at Kembla last time. He's a promising horse but this is a higher grade today and at around 3.0 he looks far too short to me. Vite Loni ran well at Grafton but is a query over 1900m. Flying Sebring was sound here last time and he now steps up to 1900m and has to prove he can run it too. That leaves a few I cannot fancy and Royal Adventure who I put up on the blog a couple of weeks ago. She ran well there and was held up a bit on the turn but finished off nicely. Prepared to try her again today.
Advised Bet: Royal Adventure 1.50 units at 4.50 or better-take the 5.50 now for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.
Race 5
Thousand Carat comes from the same form line as Royal Adventure in race 4.He was a gallant second there and I fancy he can go one better today.He goes forward and with gate 1 may get control of things here-will be handy to the pace at the very least. Plenty Special is early favourite but he was a bit plain the last two runs and appears to me to have roughly the same chance as his stablemate Loophole. Life Of Reilly ran well at Grafton and is another possibility.
Advised Bet : Thousand Carat 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor with balance
Further Bets?Updates via Twitter
Canterbury is a Good 3 and a dry day in Sydney so expect good fast racing ground.
I have unavoidable commitments late afternoon today so I haven't looked too closely at the last two races from each meeting. Nevertheless there are three of interest today:
Caulfield
The early races here don't make much appeal betting wise with markets as they are now.
Race 5
A few go forward here and I thought that fact might hold up the price about Hard Romp who is on top on my figures. I've missed the 4.60 offered this morning and he's now close to where he should be at around 3.80. I have him rated 3.50. He caught a tartar last time but beat the rest of the field easily enough.I've had a 50% on at 4.0 and will wait to see how the market moves before committing anymore.
Advised Bet: Hard Romp 1,45 units at 3.70 or better-take the 3.90 now for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.
Canterbury
Race 4
There looks to be a false favourite here in Emerald City who ran away with C1 event at Kembla last time. He's a promising horse but this is a higher grade today and at around 3.0 he looks far too short to me. Vite Loni ran well at Grafton but is a query over 1900m. Flying Sebring was sound here last time and he now steps up to 1900m and has to prove he can run it too. That leaves a few I cannot fancy and Royal Adventure who I put up on the blog a couple of weeks ago. She ran well there and was held up a bit on the turn but finished off nicely. Prepared to try her again today.
Advised Bet: Royal Adventure 1.50 units at 4.50 or better-take the 5.50 now for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.
Race 5
Thousand Carat comes from the same form line as Royal Adventure in race 4.He was a gallant second there and I fancy he can go one better today.He goes forward and with gate 1 may get control of things here-will be handy to the pace at the very least. Plenty Special is early favourite but he was a bit plain the last two runs and appears to me to have roughly the same chance as his stablemate Loophole. Life Of Reilly ran well at Grafton and is another possibility.
Advised Bet : Thousand Carat 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-take the 4.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor with balance
Further Bets?Updates via Twitter
Sunday 20 July 2014
Weekly Round Up - July Newsletter # 15
I thought this was going to be a poor week after yesterday's Australian results. The UK was looking a lost cause most of yesterday but the predicted heavy rain didn't materialize and three winners there turned the week around nicely.
Here are the figures for last week:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 5 races - 1 winner
Stakes 7.55
Loss 2.28 units
Bets sent via Twitter - Bets in 5 races - 1 winner
Stakes 6.55
Loss 1.05 units
Total for Australia this week 3.33 units LOSS
UK
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 2 races - No winners
Stakes 1.90
Loss 1.90 units
Bets sent via Twitter - Bets in 3 races- 3 winners
Stakes 5.35
Profit 10.81 units
Total for the UK this week 8.91 units PROFIT
Overall total for the week 6.58 units PROFIT
Next newsletter out on Wednesday for the Australian midweek metro meetings
Here are the figures for last week:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog- Bets in 5 races - 1 winner
Stakes 7.55
Loss 2.28 units
Bets sent via Twitter - Bets in 5 races - 1 winner
Stakes 6.55
Loss 1.05 units
Total for Australia this week 3.33 units LOSS
UK
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 2 races - No winners
Stakes 1.90
Loss 1.90 units
Bets sent via Twitter - Bets in 3 races- 3 winners
Stakes 5.35
Profit 10.81 units
Total for the UK this week 8.91 units PROFIT
Overall total for the week 6.58 units PROFIT
Next newsletter out on Wednesday for the Australian midweek metro meetings
Saturday 19 July 2014
Saturday's UK Racing _ July Newsletter # 14
This is generally one of the weaker Saturday's quality wise during the Summer and today is not an exception. There is lot's of rain around and it's potentially very heavy so making any kind of early prediction is fraught with danger. Only Newmarket looks likely to miss rain or rain in any large quantity so just the one early bet today. If the weather doesn't mess with thing's too much there may be a couple more later.
Irish Oaks at The Curragh and it's not an easy race to be confident about so doubt I'll be involved there.
Newmarket
Race 1
Typically open C2 Saturday handicap with plenty of possibilities. Happy to be with the 3-y-old Tanseeb sitting right at the bottom of the handicap. It was a gutsy effort to go down narrowly to Sea Shanty at Sandown last time and the step up to a mile really seemed to suit him there.With the strong possibility that he has more to offer he appeals as worth an interest today.
Advised Bet: Tanseeb 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.50 on offer now
Further Bets/Updates via Twitter
Irish Oaks at The Curragh and it's not an easy race to be confident about so doubt I'll be involved there.
Newmarket
Race 1
Typically open C2 Saturday handicap with plenty of possibilities. Happy to be with the 3-y-old Tanseeb sitting right at the bottom of the handicap. It was a gutsy effort to go down narrowly to Sea Shanty at Sandown last time and the step up to a mile really seemed to suit him there.With the strong possibility that he has more to offer he appeals as worth an interest today.
Advised Bet: Tanseeb 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.50 on offer now
Further Bets/Updates via Twitter
Friday 18 July 2014
Flemington & Rosehill Today - July Newsletter # 13
Flemington is a Dead 5 and it's generally dry so perhaps it might just get to a Dead 4.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and morning showers in Sydney and strong winds have mostly been around coastal areas.I doubt it gets any rain but the wind may be a factor so monitor conditions.
Flemington
Race 4
This should prove to be a strong form race with some likable progressive horses engaged.
Stamina resumes after a year off. I expect he'll be better for the run over a 1000m today. Handsome Tycoon's Sydney win is solid form and he followed that up with a good second over 1100m here last time.He's got to be around the money here again today you would think. O'Malley was good winning an easier race at midweek level last time-he and the second came away there so he's a live hope here.
Trevinder was good second in a solid BM70 last time but this is probably a bit tougher. Seven Falls is unexposed and won his maiden easily before failing when favourite at Moonee Valley. Cosmic Lights' debut in very wet ground at Mornington was very eyecatching. Different grade and ground today but the vibes were strong and don't think this one will be far away.
Advised Bets: Handsome Tycoon 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-5.0 available now
Cosmic Lights 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-7.0 available now
Race 5
Fulgar has an obvious hope but he doesn't look much in love with the game these days so I'm to find something to oppose him with.Backbone has a sound chance if he's fit enough but he might just need another run to top him off. Shenzou Steeds is a hope but he struggles to win these days.Post D'France and Use The lot are running below their best at the moment. Eclair Samba is rated 74 and the minimum here is around 84.Normally that would put off straight away but the 74 rating looks way,way too low on a line of form from earlier in the year.This horse is not badly in here at all and he's still unexposed.4.60 is on offer and at that price there is enough of a margin for me to want to play.
Advised Bet: Eclair Samba 1.25 units at 4.20 or better -has been 5.0 into 4.60 this morning and doubt it gets any bigger.
Rosehill
Race 3
I put up Zaratone on the blog a couple of weeks ago only to find out after the money was down that it had had a foot abcess. It blew like a gale in the betting and ran like a horse that had stood in it's box for a couple of weeks which it probably had.It was 5.0 that day early and meets the same principal rivals but a bit better off weight wise.This morning it's 10.0 into 9.0 and at that price I definitely want to go in again.1100m around Rosehill brings out the best in him. Bit cautious after what happened last time but have to play at those odds.
Advised Bet : Zaratone 0.85 units at 6.0 or better-take the 9.0 on offer
Race 8
I'm sure there is more to come from Paederos and he's a big enough price to get me interested again today after he did me a favour last time. He can get a nice sit behind Moral Victory who will lead I'm sure and I think that suits him better than leading himself. I would have been interested in Evangelist who makes his Australian debut but he's a big blower out to 21.0 so happy to watch him today.
Advised Bet: Paederos 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-is 4.80 at the moment from 5.0
There will almost certainly be more today as markets develop and open up and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Rosehill is a Good 3 and morning showers in Sydney and strong winds have mostly been around coastal areas.I doubt it gets any rain but the wind may be a factor so monitor conditions.
Flemington
Race 4
This should prove to be a strong form race with some likable progressive horses engaged.
Stamina resumes after a year off. I expect he'll be better for the run over a 1000m today. Handsome Tycoon's Sydney win is solid form and he followed that up with a good second over 1100m here last time.He's got to be around the money here again today you would think. O'Malley was good winning an easier race at midweek level last time-he and the second came away there so he's a live hope here.
Trevinder was good second in a solid BM70 last time but this is probably a bit tougher. Seven Falls is unexposed and won his maiden easily before failing when favourite at Moonee Valley. Cosmic Lights' debut in very wet ground at Mornington was very eyecatching. Different grade and ground today but the vibes were strong and don't think this one will be far away.
Advised Bets: Handsome Tycoon 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-5.0 available now
Cosmic Lights 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-7.0 available now
Race 5
Fulgar has an obvious hope but he doesn't look much in love with the game these days so I'm to find something to oppose him with.Backbone has a sound chance if he's fit enough but he might just need another run to top him off. Shenzou Steeds is a hope but he struggles to win these days.Post D'France and Use The lot are running below their best at the moment. Eclair Samba is rated 74 and the minimum here is around 84.Normally that would put off straight away but the 74 rating looks way,way too low on a line of form from earlier in the year.This horse is not badly in here at all and he's still unexposed.4.60 is on offer and at that price there is enough of a margin for me to want to play.
Advised Bet: Eclair Samba 1.25 units at 4.20 or better -has been 5.0 into 4.60 this morning and doubt it gets any bigger.
Rosehill
Race 3
I put up Zaratone on the blog a couple of weeks ago only to find out after the money was down that it had had a foot abcess. It blew like a gale in the betting and ran like a horse that had stood in it's box for a couple of weeks which it probably had.It was 5.0 that day early and meets the same principal rivals but a bit better off weight wise.This morning it's 10.0 into 9.0 and at that price I definitely want to go in again.1100m around Rosehill brings out the best in him. Bit cautious after what happened last time but have to play at those odds.
Advised Bet : Zaratone 0.85 units at 6.0 or better-take the 9.0 on offer
Race 8
I'm sure there is more to come from Paederos and he's a big enough price to get me interested again today after he did me a favour last time. He can get a nice sit behind Moral Victory who will lead I'm sure and I think that suits him better than leading himself. I would have been interested in Evangelist who makes his Australian debut but he's a big blower out to 21.0 so happy to watch him today.
Advised Bet: Paederos 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-is 4.80 at the moment from 5.0
There will almost certainly be more today as markets develop and open up and Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Friday's UK Racing - July Newsletter #12
Six meeting's in the UK on Friday. Most of it is modest fare but there are a handful of decent races spread out between the afternoon and evening fixtures.
I had a good look at three or four possibles today-Random Success in R4 at Nottingham, Dutch Art Dealer in R3 at Newmarket and at Hamilton Out Do in R4 and Postponed in R5. I've finally settled on just the one bet :-
Hamilton Good to Firm-maybe some rain but ground should be good or faster
Race 4
Competitive sprint handicap with horses with speed drawn on both wings of the field.
I'm keen Out Do must figure around the money here and he's the most likely winner in an open affair.
He was found out by 7 furlongs last time and had to settle for second.The winner has gone in again and reverting to 6 furlong and drawn to get a nice sit behind the leaders I think he's value in early betting.
Advised Bet: Out Do 0.90 units at 5.80 or better-is 7.50 with some UK bookies and > 7.0 on Betfair for buttons at the moment but well into four figures already matched over 7.0-average in, doubt it starts bigger than 7.0
Two newsletters tomorrow Australian racing first and UK later
I had a good look at three or four possibles today-Random Success in R4 at Nottingham, Dutch Art Dealer in R3 at Newmarket and at Hamilton Out Do in R4 and Postponed in R5. I've finally settled on just the one bet :-
Hamilton Good to Firm-maybe some rain but ground should be good or faster
Race 4
Competitive sprint handicap with horses with speed drawn on both wings of the field.
I'm keen Out Do must figure around the money here and he's the most likely winner in an open affair.
He was found out by 7 furlongs last time and had to settle for second.The winner has gone in again and reverting to 6 furlong and drawn to get a nice sit behind the leaders I think he's value in early betting.
Advised Bet: Out Do 0.90 units at 5.80 or better-is 7.50 with some UK bookies and > 7.0 on Betfair for buttons at the moment but well into four figures already matched over 7.0-average in, doubt it starts bigger than 7.0
Two newsletters tomorrow Australian racing first and UK later
Tuesday 15 July 2014
Cranbourne & Warwick Farm Today - July Newsletter # 11
Cranbourne is now a Heavy 10 after morning rain which seems to have cleared away now. The rail is back in the true position and that probably means up front on the rail will in the freshest ground is the place to be-early on at least.Some of the later races have a lot of speed so the run on types may get their chance then.
What an atrocious offering this is from RVL on a Wednesday. A good metro meeting in the middle of every week should be an absolute priority.
There are no early bets at Cranbourne for obvious reasons but there may be something later on depending on how the track plays.
Warwick Farm is a Dead 4 with showers around so any more rain may mean a downgrade-monitor.
Race 4
Maluti finds it hard to win but her effort last time was very good.Her strike rate is a negative and she's a get back/run on type and there is little obvious pace here. Britalia Kate has also been an eyecatcher of late but she's a serious risk at 1400m.Her only previous try at the trip was three starts ago and she looked a non stayer then. She also goes back and that negative is compounded by being drawn in gate 1. Star Of Helicon is a sound chance if she's fit enough (is she?) and looks overs at around 12.0. Hey Hey Renee and Sensualism are other possibilities.
May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 7
Perfect Weapon's very good second here recently reads as better form than Redhawks battling win at Kembla I think. Alcatraz was 4 lengths behind Perfect Weapon last time but was weak in the market and ran like he needed the run. He was promising last prep and he's a serious hope if he's fit enough today.He's 12.0 into 9.0 so expect him to be around the money.
Advised Bets: Alcatraz 0.65 units at 8.50 or better-sorry the cream has gone but 9.0 is still around.
Perfect Weapon 1.55 units at 3.40 or better -monitor the betting
What an atrocious offering this is from RVL on a Wednesday. A good metro meeting in the middle of every week should be an absolute priority.
There are no early bets at Cranbourne for obvious reasons but there may be something later on depending on how the track plays.
Warwick Farm is a Dead 4 with showers around so any more rain may mean a downgrade-monitor.
Race 4
Maluti finds it hard to win but her effort last time was very good.Her strike rate is a negative and she's a get back/run on type and there is little obvious pace here. Britalia Kate has also been an eyecatcher of late but she's a serious risk at 1400m.Her only previous try at the trip was three starts ago and she looked a non stayer then. She also goes back and that negative is compounded by being drawn in gate 1. Star Of Helicon is a sound chance if she's fit enough (is she?) and looks overs at around 12.0. Hey Hey Renee and Sensualism are other possibilities.
May do something here but not committed yet.
Race 7
Perfect Weapon's very good second here recently reads as better form than Redhawks battling win at Kembla I think. Alcatraz was 4 lengths behind Perfect Weapon last time but was weak in the market and ran like he needed the run. He was promising last prep and he's a serious hope if he's fit enough today.He's 12.0 into 9.0 so expect him to be around the money.
Advised Bets: Alcatraz 0.65 units at 8.50 or better-sorry the cream has gone but 9.0 is still around.
Perfect Weapon 1.55 units at 3.40 or better -monitor the betting
Weekly Round Up -July Newsletter # 10
A very frustrating week all in all.
I was looking forward to the July Meeting at Newmarket after what has been a very lean period of racing in the UK after the highs of Royal Ascot. Unfortunately the first day was ruined by torrents of rain and lots of non runners. Leaders were advantaged by the reluctance of opposing jockeys to get competitive early and the whole day was thoroughly disappointing. The whole meeting struggled as a result of the wet conditions to be honest. Slade Power's win in the main event on Saturday eased the frustration a bit but overall the meeting was a bit of a let down.
I keep getting the odd winner which is keeping things balanced but I don't really feel like I'm operating at my best at the moment with marginal calls not going the right way overall.
Anyway the figures from last week are marginally profitable so it definitely could be worse!
UK
Bets advised in the blog 2 bets-1 winner
Stakes 3.65
Profit 1.65 units
Bets sent via Twitter Bets in 2 markets- 1 winner
Stakes 3.80
Profit 1.83 units
Weekly total for UK 3.48 units PROFIT
Australia
Bets advised in the blog 1 market- No winners
Stakes 1.65
Loss 1.65 units
Bets advised by Twitter- Bets in 9 markets-2 winners
Stakes 12.25
Loss 1.00 units
Weekly Total for Australia 2.65 Loss
Overall for the week 0.83 units PROFIT
No metro meeting in Melbourne tomorrow just provincial stuff at Cranbourne and Warwick Farm in Sydney-newsletter out around half an hour before racing starts
I was looking forward to the July Meeting at Newmarket after what has been a very lean period of racing in the UK after the highs of Royal Ascot. Unfortunately the first day was ruined by torrents of rain and lots of non runners. Leaders were advantaged by the reluctance of opposing jockeys to get competitive early and the whole day was thoroughly disappointing. The whole meeting struggled as a result of the wet conditions to be honest. Slade Power's win in the main event on Saturday eased the frustration a bit but overall the meeting was a bit of a let down.
I keep getting the odd winner which is keeping things balanced but I don't really feel like I'm operating at my best at the moment with marginal calls not going the right way overall.
Anyway the figures from last week are marginally profitable so it definitely could be worse!
UK
Bets advised in the blog 2 bets-1 winner
Stakes 3.65
Profit 1.65 units
Bets sent via Twitter Bets in 2 markets- 1 winner
Stakes 3.80
Profit 1.83 units
Weekly total for UK 3.48 units PROFIT
Australia
Bets advised in the blog 1 market- No winners
Stakes 1.65
Loss 1.65 units
Bets advised by Twitter- Bets in 9 markets-2 winners
Stakes 12.25
Loss 1.00 units
Weekly Total for Australia 2.65 Loss
Overall for the week 0.83 units PROFIT
No metro meeting in Melbourne tomorrow just provincial stuff at Cranbourne and Warwick Farm in Sydney-newsletter out around half an hour before racing starts
Saturday 12 July 2014
Newmarket July Meeting-Day Three plus Ascot,Chester & York
Day three of the July meeting and the G1 July Cup the highlight.Strong support meetings during the day at Ascot,Chester and York.
Newmarket is Soft but will start drying out a bit and the other tracks are all racing on decent fast summer ground.
At Newmarket the only two races that interest me betting wise are the July Cup and the very competitive 7 furlong Bunbury Cup in which I may back Abseil who let me down at Ascot when a bit fizzy. I want to see how he parades before committing with him today.
July Cup G1 6 Furlongs
Slade power has developed into the best sprinter around the UK scene and he confirm his dominance again here.He was a solid no nonsense winner of the G1 Golden Jubilee at Royal ascot and he faces a similar task today.wet ground is no problem for him and he is a solid selection. The spanish trained 3-y-old Noozah Canarias ran well in the 2000 Guineas and he may present as the main threat.
Advised Bet: Slade Power 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.75 if you can get it.3.50 if not
York
Race 4
Two main hopes here in Kingsgate Native who has the best form and the highly promising G Force who needs to improve slightly on what he done so far. Things didn't pan out well for G Force last time at Sandown but he still looked the best horse on show there.I think he's a top class sprinter in the making and I'll be disappointed if he gets rolled today
Advised Bet: G Force 2 units at 2.70 or better-take the 3.50 on Betfair now or 9/4 with the bookies
There may be more today and any further Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Newmarket is Soft but will start drying out a bit and the other tracks are all racing on decent fast summer ground.
At Newmarket the only two races that interest me betting wise are the July Cup and the very competitive 7 furlong Bunbury Cup in which I may back Abseil who let me down at Ascot when a bit fizzy. I want to see how he parades before committing with him today.
July Cup G1 6 Furlongs
Slade power has developed into the best sprinter around the UK scene and he confirm his dominance again here.He was a solid no nonsense winner of the G1 Golden Jubilee at Royal ascot and he faces a similar task today.wet ground is no problem for him and he is a solid selection. The spanish trained 3-y-old Noozah Canarias ran well in the 2000 Guineas and he may present as the main threat.
Advised Bet: Slade Power 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.75 if you can get it.3.50 if not
York
Race 4
Two main hopes here in Kingsgate Native who has the best form and the highly promising G Force who needs to improve slightly on what he done so far. Things didn't pan out well for G Force last time at Sandown but he still looked the best horse on show there.I think he's a top class sprinter in the making and I'll be disappointed if he gets rolled today
Advised Bet: G Force 2 units at 2.70 or better-take the 3.50 on Betfair now or 9/4 with the bookies
There may be more today and any further Bets/Updates sent via twitter
Friday 11 July 2014
Flemington & Randwick Today - July Newsletter #8
Flemington posts a Slow 6 but there is rain around and more likely so it will any change will be for the worse-monitor.
Randwick is a Good 3 and it's fine in Sydney so expect good fast ground.
I found Randwick quite trappy although I did look at a couple but they are a bit tight price wise so I haven't done anything there yet and will need things to open up a little for me to get involved.
Flemington
Race 2
Dig A Pony has a wide gate and will probably have to go back in a race with little obvious pace.She's in great form and likes the wet but if she's standing them it decent start it's going to be a big mountain to climb. I don't want to oppose here but she's very skinny around 3.0
Race 3
Markmanship did me a favour last week and he's a promising horse. He's up 9 points for that win and critically up another 600m. He's by Galileo so that's a big help but the distaff side of the pedigree doesn't shout stayer. I understand the logic in trying to find out if he'll stay with Spring around the corner but I'm not backing him over this trip until he's proved he can run it. Sacred Flyer was easy to back and never really going last time-internal bleed reported! If you can forgive that effort he has plenty going for him here and I prefer him to stablemate Mulaqen. Zuma Roc and Crafty Cruiser are other possibilities. May back Sacred Flyer but not yet committed.
Race 4
This looks Vain Queens race. I hoped they might bet "black" figures about her buts she around 1.75 and that's about right.
Race 5
I thought Refulgent was very good last time and he's a worthy favourite despite the wide gate. I think he's at the limit of his stamina here though so on wet ground and particularly if they run along here he may be vulnerable in the last furlong. He's too short at 2.50 for me. Best Suggestion was poor last week and if I hadn't seen that run (and lost on him) I'd be very keen on him provided he can run 1600m. Probably passing here.
Race 6
I've been tracking Henwood as he prepared for this but resisted betting early (emergencies coming out/uncertain weather etc.) and the odds have collasped. He's on top but 4.20 is a bit skinny now.Hasn't won over 1600m yet either. Plenty of hopes here. The Cleaner despite the wide gate and the weight is getting better and tougher if anything. Fast and Free is improving,ditto Akavoroun and Tried And Tired.Ringo is in the mix too
Not committed yet-monitoring
Race 7
Miss Promiscuity is well in here. She's a 3-y-old filly resuming and an on pacer which have me a little wary but provided she is fit she should win this.Assuming she's ready to go I have her at 3.0 here.
Longchamp Belle and Street Allure are viable alternatives away from the favourite
Advised Bet: Miss Promiscuity 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 4.40 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor the market with the balance.
Any further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Randwick is a Good 3 and it's fine in Sydney so expect good fast ground.
I found Randwick quite trappy although I did look at a couple but they are a bit tight price wise so I haven't done anything there yet and will need things to open up a little for me to get involved.
Flemington
Race 2
Dig A Pony has a wide gate and will probably have to go back in a race with little obvious pace.She's in great form and likes the wet but if she's standing them it decent start it's going to be a big mountain to climb. I don't want to oppose here but she's very skinny around 3.0
Race 3
Markmanship did me a favour last week and he's a promising horse. He's up 9 points for that win and critically up another 600m. He's by Galileo so that's a big help but the distaff side of the pedigree doesn't shout stayer. I understand the logic in trying to find out if he'll stay with Spring around the corner but I'm not backing him over this trip until he's proved he can run it. Sacred Flyer was easy to back and never really going last time-internal bleed reported! If you can forgive that effort he has plenty going for him here and I prefer him to stablemate Mulaqen. Zuma Roc and Crafty Cruiser are other possibilities. May back Sacred Flyer but not yet committed.
Race 4
This looks Vain Queens race. I hoped they might bet "black" figures about her buts she around 1.75 and that's about right.
Race 5
I thought Refulgent was very good last time and he's a worthy favourite despite the wide gate. I think he's at the limit of his stamina here though so on wet ground and particularly if they run along here he may be vulnerable in the last furlong. He's too short at 2.50 for me. Best Suggestion was poor last week and if I hadn't seen that run (and lost on him) I'd be very keen on him provided he can run 1600m. Probably passing here.
Race 6
I've been tracking Henwood as he prepared for this but resisted betting early (emergencies coming out/uncertain weather etc.) and the odds have collasped. He's on top but 4.20 is a bit skinny now.Hasn't won over 1600m yet either. Plenty of hopes here. The Cleaner despite the wide gate and the weight is getting better and tougher if anything. Fast and Free is improving,ditto Akavoroun and Tried And Tired.Ringo is in the mix too
Not committed yet-monitoring
Race 7
Miss Promiscuity is well in here. She's a 3-y-old filly resuming and an on pacer which have me a little wary but provided she is fit she should win this.Assuming she's ready to go I have her at 3.0 here.
Longchamp Belle and Street Allure are viable alternatives away from the favourite
Advised Bet: Miss Promiscuity 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 4.40 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor the market with the balance.
Any further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Newmarket July Meeting - Day Two - July Newsletter #7
A swag of non-runners after rain all night and the going is described as soft.
Some of the horses still engaged are likely to come out if the ground is judged to be a genuine Soft or worse after the first race or two.
Yesterday was a shambles with the rain loosening the top off the track and some of the races being little more than a 3 furlong dash home. I'm not confident about any of these races at this stage.
In the circumstances it seems pointless trying to guess what will still run and what won't so I won't bother trying.
There are very strong cards at both Ascot and York too this afternoon. They have had no rain and it's decent Summer ground at both courses. The handful I've looked at Ascot and York are very borderline at present price wise so there is nothing early today.
Sorry the newsletter is a bit light today but I've no bets on at this stage and will only be playing later if things look favourable.
Any bets/updates etc. sent via Twitter
Some of the horses still engaged are likely to come out if the ground is judged to be a genuine Soft or worse after the first race or two.
Yesterday was a shambles with the rain loosening the top off the track and some of the races being little more than a 3 furlong dash home. I'm not confident about any of these races at this stage.
In the circumstances it seems pointless trying to guess what will still run and what won't so I won't bother trying.
There are very strong cards at both Ascot and York too this afternoon. They have had no rain and it's decent Summer ground at both courses. The handful I've looked at Ascot and York are very borderline at present price wise so there is nothing early today.
Sorry the newsletter is a bit light today but I've no bets on at this stage and will only be playing later if things look favourable.
Any bets/updates etc. sent via Twitter
Thursday 10 July 2014
Newmarket July Meeting - Day One July Newsletter # 6
Day One of the July Meeting and a really excellent day's racing in prospect.
It's Good to Firm ground but there is a band of rain threatening and it's hard to call if there will be any significant rain before or during racing. It may just be drizzle until late afternoon or evening.There is the potential for a fairly good soaking if it arrives.
Race 1
This is a really good G3 for 3-y-olds full of progressive horses and it should be a very good marker and prove strong form.
Windshear is a very likeable sort and ran a fine race when going under to a potentially very useful one at Royal Ascot. That's the best form on offer and with the extra furlong here likely to be a positive I want to be with him again. Forever Now was most impressive winning his maiden and is pitched straight into group class here. it's a huge class rise but Gosden is a master placer of his horses so you must respect his chance here. Hartnell won over two miles at Royal ascot and the drop back in trip against some really nice horses is likely to find him out I feel. Odeon is a decent horse but needs to settle better but is a threat to all if he does.Vent De Force has looked a really good prospect but on wet ground.If can handle a fast surface he's a sound hope here
Advised Bet: Windshear 1.65 units at 3.20 or better. 4.0 on offer is good value
Race 2
G2 for 2-y-olds over 6 furlongs.
Jungle Cat's third at Royal Ascot is the best form showed so far but there are a couple of likely big improvers after promising debut's in the Hannon trained Ivawood and the Varian trained Belardo.
The Great War was odds on at Royal Ascot but disappointed there-O'Brien sends him back to the UK again so maybe he should be forgiven for last time. There are others here that would be no big surprise. Not betting here but a good race.
Race 3
The Stoute trained duo Arab Spring and Hillstar dominate here.Arab Spring is a rapid improver and he demolished a quality field of handicappers at Royal Ascot. He jumps to G2 here but Ryan Moore has chosen him over the proven Hillstar so that speaks volumes for his chances.Hillstar is a solid G2 performer and he was sound running second to Telescope at Ascot-Dettori gets the ride with Moore preferring Arab Spring. Dandino is the other possibility and he will be fitter for the Ascot run.He's seven now though and has been around a bit but double figure odds are a fair price if you like him.
Arab Spring is a bit short now around 2.20 (I have him 2.35 and would need 2.60 to be betting) but he'll be heavily backed and may start a shade in the red.
Race 4
Very competitive 3-y-old handicap. The two I like are Mount Logan and What About Carlo but rattling fast ground would put me off betting and I'll only be playing if the rain has come. I suspect both may be a bit suspect on very fast ground.Mange All jumps from maiden grade but Haggis is a master placer and you have to respect.Madeed was very solid in the Brittania at Ascot and Insaany won well here last time.Ventura Quest at odds is another possibility as the best of him has yet to be seen. Waiting on the weather here before finalizing anything.
Race 5
2-y-old Maiden.
No money early for the unraced ones and difficult to line up the ones who have some form. I can't help with this race and happy to watch and learn
Race 6
Listed event for 3-y-olds over a mile
Zarwaan ran into trouble in the Brittannia at Ascot and his form is very sound for this race.Stable is not really firing but you'd be brave dismissing him on that count. Pretzel blitzed his rivals at Ayr and has moved from Varian to Gosden (I don't know why). The third at Ayr has franked the form and he was the one I was most keen on here but 2.80 is very skinny but he'll be tough to beat. Table Rock was well held in the Brittania but has since won against older horses at the Curragh so O'Brien tries again with him. I like Windfast but I'm not sure a mile will suit but a live hope if he gets the trip. Parbold looks to be going backwards.
Not committed here at the moment.
Race 7
Oh So Sassy has improved a great deal since being switched to the polytrack. If that improvement is carried forward here then the rest will need to look out but it's less likely than likely overall. Over 7.0 on Betfair is fair enough if you want to take the chance but I don't want to play here.
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
It's Good to Firm ground but there is a band of rain threatening and it's hard to call if there will be any significant rain before or during racing. It may just be drizzle until late afternoon or evening.There is the potential for a fairly good soaking if it arrives.
Race 1
This is a really good G3 for 3-y-olds full of progressive horses and it should be a very good marker and prove strong form.
Windshear is a very likeable sort and ran a fine race when going under to a potentially very useful one at Royal Ascot. That's the best form on offer and with the extra furlong here likely to be a positive I want to be with him again. Forever Now was most impressive winning his maiden and is pitched straight into group class here. it's a huge class rise but Gosden is a master placer of his horses so you must respect his chance here. Hartnell won over two miles at Royal ascot and the drop back in trip against some really nice horses is likely to find him out I feel. Odeon is a decent horse but needs to settle better but is a threat to all if he does.Vent De Force has looked a really good prospect but on wet ground.If can handle a fast surface he's a sound hope here
Advised Bet: Windshear 1.65 units at 3.20 or better. 4.0 on offer is good value
Race 2
G2 for 2-y-olds over 6 furlongs.
Jungle Cat's third at Royal Ascot is the best form showed so far but there are a couple of likely big improvers after promising debut's in the Hannon trained Ivawood and the Varian trained Belardo.
The Great War was odds on at Royal Ascot but disappointed there-O'Brien sends him back to the UK again so maybe he should be forgiven for last time. There are others here that would be no big surprise. Not betting here but a good race.
Race 3
The Stoute trained duo Arab Spring and Hillstar dominate here.Arab Spring is a rapid improver and he demolished a quality field of handicappers at Royal Ascot. He jumps to G2 here but Ryan Moore has chosen him over the proven Hillstar so that speaks volumes for his chances.Hillstar is a solid G2 performer and he was sound running second to Telescope at Ascot-Dettori gets the ride with Moore preferring Arab Spring. Dandino is the other possibility and he will be fitter for the Ascot run.He's seven now though and has been around a bit but double figure odds are a fair price if you like him.
Arab Spring is a bit short now around 2.20 (I have him 2.35 and would need 2.60 to be betting) but he'll be heavily backed and may start a shade in the red.
Race 4
Very competitive 3-y-old handicap. The two I like are Mount Logan and What About Carlo but rattling fast ground would put me off betting and I'll only be playing if the rain has come. I suspect both may be a bit suspect on very fast ground.Mange All jumps from maiden grade but Haggis is a master placer and you have to respect.Madeed was very solid in the Brittania at Ascot and Insaany won well here last time.Ventura Quest at odds is another possibility as the best of him has yet to be seen. Waiting on the weather here before finalizing anything.
Race 5
2-y-old Maiden.
No money early for the unraced ones and difficult to line up the ones who have some form. I can't help with this race and happy to watch and learn
Race 6
Listed event for 3-y-olds over a mile
Zarwaan ran into trouble in the Brittannia at Ascot and his form is very sound for this race.Stable is not really firing but you'd be brave dismissing him on that count. Pretzel blitzed his rivals at Ayr and has moved from Varian to Gosden (I don't know why). The third at Ayr has franked the form and he was the one I was most keen on here but 2.80 is very skinny but he'll be tough to beat. Table Rock was well held in the Brittania but has since won against older horses at the Curragh so O'Brien tries again with him. I like Windfast but I'm not sure a mile will suit but a live hope if he gets the trip. Parbold looks to be going backwards.
Not committed here at the moment.
Race 7
Oh So Sassy has improved a great deal since being switched to the polytrack. If that improvement is carried forward here then the rest will need to look out but it's less likely than likely overall. Over 7.0 on Betfair is fair enough if you want to take the chance but I don't want to play here.
Further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 8 July 2014
Bendigo, Canterbury, and Ramornie at Grafton - July Newsletter #5
Bendigo is a Slow 7 after morning rain. The radar looks clear at the moment but there is a chance of more rain through the afternoon.
Canterbury is a Good3 and fine but very windy. Grafton is a Dead 4 and fine and there are 30kph winds there too so it should dry out .
Bendigo
Race 6
Hill Spy finds a much easier race than the one he contested at the Valley last time. He ran very well there and drawing out here on the big track should suit his style.The negatives are 62kg's on wet ground and the possibility that he's better on a drier surface. West Africa is hard to weigh up.He certainly looked better than a 62 rater when bolting in at Kilmore on debut. He's been favourite both times since in city races and has been poor on both occasions. Auto Drafter is a horse that I think has a bit more to offer.His effort resuming was good in a fair race for the grade on a slow track. If the front two in the betting fail he may be the one most likely to capitalize. Not committed to anything here at the moment.
The rest of this card is tricky and at this stage there is very little that appeals.There are a couple of possibilities depending on how the weather is looking and how the markets shape up but no strong opinions at the moment.
Canterbury
Race 4
Deep Field looked very good bolting up on his debut.He's unbackable odds here today but he's an interesting horse.
Race 5
I like Coolring here back to midweek grade and 1200m.The problem is the forecast wind which if it's coming from the North is going to disadvantage front runners.Passing at the moment
Race 7
The two most likely here are Royal Adventure and Khalid both of which will be suited by the step up in trip.Khalid has come along steadily since arriving from Germany and was a sound third last time. his wins over there have been at 2000 and 2200m
Royal Adventure was only run down late last time and she'll be suited out to the 1900m now.
Loophole next best for me.
Probably doing something here but not committed yet.
Ramornie at Grafton
The winds here aren't as strong as at Canterbury but they may be a slight disadvantage to leaders.
Bearing that in mind you'd probably want to check out the pattern before playing.I thought Under The Sun first up and in blinkers first time was very interesting. Big Money draws 1 and is a get back run on type.He's been going very well but his rating has skyrocketted too and he looks very short in early markets.Testarhythm looks sure to go well with a nice trail from gate 3-looks sure to be around the money. Hidden Warrior has gone to Gordon Yorke-he was OK resuming and if he finds his best is a live hope. Again not committed at the moment.
Bets/Updates etc. sent via Twitter through the afternoon
Canterbury is a Good3 and fine but very windy. Grafton is a Dead 4 and fine and there are 30kph winds there too so it should dry out .
Bendigo
Race 6
Hill Spy finds a much easier race than the one he contested at the Valley last time. He ran very well there and drawing out here on the big track should suit his style.The negatives are 62kg's on wet ground and the possibility that he's better on a drier surface. West Africa is hard to weigh up.He certainly looked better than a 62 rater when bolting in at Kilmore on debut. He's been favourite both times since in city races and has been poor on both occasions. Auto Drafter is a horse that I think has a bit more to offer.His effort resuming was good in a fair race for the grade on a slow track. If the front two in the betting fail he may be the one most likely to capitalize. Not committed to anything here at the moment.
The rest of this card is tricky and at this stage there is very little that appeals.There are a couple of possibilities depending on how the weather is looking and how the markets shape up but no strong opinions at the moment.
Canterbury
Race 4
Deep Field looked very good bolting up on his debut.He's unbackable odds here today but he's an interesting horse.
Race 5
I like Coolring here back to midweek grade and 1200m.The problem is the forecast wind which if it's coming from the North is going to disadvantage front runners.Passing at the moment
Race 7
The two most likely here are Royal Adventure and Khalid both of which will be suited by the step up in trip.Khalid has come along steadily since arriving from Germany and was a sound third last time. his wins over there have been at 2000 and 2200m
Royal Adventure was only run down late last time and she'll be suited out to the 1900m now.
Loophole next best for me.
Probably doing something here but not committed yet.
Ramornie at Grafton
The winds here aren't as strong as at Canterbury but they may be a slight disadvantage to leaders.
Bearing that in mind you'd probably want to check out the pattern before playing.I thought Under The Sun first up and in blinkers first time was very interesting. Big Money draws 1 and is a get back run on type.He's been going very well but his rating has skyrocketted too and he looks very short in early markets.Testarhythm looks sure to go well with a nice trail from gate 3-looks sure to be around the money. Hidden Warrior has gone to Gordon Yorke-he was OK resuming and if he finds his best is a live hope. Again not committed at the moment.
Bets/Updates etc. sent via Twitter through the afternoon
Sunday 6 July 2014
Last Weeks Round Up & The Week Ahead
An up and down week and finished behind a bit but it could have been worse.
I've been a bit out of whack the last few weeks with domestic issues getting in the way and putting me off my game.
Without going in to too much detail it's not generally a good idea to take back your ex. She left Thursday and I think finally I've learned my lesson.
Hopefully I'll be back to normal sooner rather than later.
Here are the figures for last week:-
UK no bets in the blog and just one sent via Twitter for a loss of 1 unit
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 5 races -no winners
Stakes 5.60
LOSS 5.60 units
Bets advised by Twitter - bets advised in 8 races - 2 winners
Stakes 10.05
Profit 3.45 units
Australia for the week 2.15 units LOSS
Overall for the week 3.15 units LOSS
Yesterday's Eclipse at Sandown was a wholly unsatisfactory affair with the winner Mukhadram getting away with a very soft lead and the market leaders were never placed to mount an effective challenge. The winner is a good tough consistent horse but he's unlikely to find things falling his way so easily in future. I dithered over backing Night Of Thunder and finally did but he clearly didn't stay.
The two weeks after Royal Ascot are very thin in the UK.Yesterday was OK but I struggled to find more than a handful of races that might have been of betting interest.
The next newsletter will be on Wednesday but there is no midweek meeting in Melbourne this week just provincial at Bendigo, Canterbury in Sydney and there maybe something at the Grafton Carnival.
Newmarket's July Meeting starts on Thursday and I'll cover that in full with a separate newsletter for each day and a full preview of Melbourne and Sydney on Saturday.
I've been a bit out of whack the last few weeks with domestic issues getting in the way and putting me off my game.
Without going in to too much detail it's not generally a good idea to take back your ex. She left Thursday and I think finally I've learned my lesson.
Hopefully I'll be back to normal sooner rather than later.
Here are the figures for last week:-
UK no bets in the blog and just one sent via Twitter for a loss of 1 unit
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 5 races -no winners
Stakes 5.60
LOSS 5.60 units
Bets advised by Twitter - bets advised in 8 races - 2 winners
Stakes 10.05
Profit 3.45 units
Australia for the week 2.15 units LOSS
Overall for the week 3.15 units LOSS
Yesterday's Eclipse at Sandown was a wholly unsatisfactory affair with the winner Mukhadram getting away with a very soft lead and the market leaders were never placed to mount an effective challenge. The winner is a good tough consistent horse but he's unlikely to find things falling his way so easily in future. I dithered over backing Night Of Thunder and finally did but he clearly didn't stay.
The two weeks after Royal Ascot are very thin in the UK.Yesterday was OK but I struggled to find more than a handful of races that might have been of betting interest.
The next newsletter will be on Wednesday but there is no midweek meeting in Melbourne this week just provincial at Bendigo, Canterbury in Sydney and there maybe something at the Grafton Carnival.
Newmarket's July Meeting starts on Thursday and I'll cover that in full with a separate newsletter for each day and a full preview of Melbourne and Sydney on Saturday.
Saturday 5 July 2014
Eclipse Stakes at Sandown & Haydock - July Newsletter #3
A horrible day in Australia was largely salvaged with a good winner sent via Twitter in the last at Caulfield.
Eclipse Day at Sandown and a good card at Haydock with the Lancashire Oaks and the Old Newton Cup. Sandown is Good to Firm, Firm in places despite some morning rain. Haydock is Soft.
I don't put up horses on here just for the sake of it and some weeks it's really difficult to find many that I want to suggest. Last week and this have been very thin on the UK stuff and that trend continues today. There are two or three possibilities but nothing definite at this stage.
Eclipse Stakes
The Fugue is favourite and she has marginally the best figures.She flopped badly here last year but subsequently scoped dirty. She's a very solid and admirable mare and hard to knock but generally I like to look for 3-y-olds here especially if the classic generation looks above average which I think is the case this year.
Night Of Thunder was no match for Kingman last time at Ascot but there is no shame in going down to that horse who is potentially outstanding. His Guineas win is terrific form and it's just whether he can stay the mile and a quarter. Kingston Hill was clear second best in the Derby and again there is real merit running second to another potentially outstanding one in Australia. The drop back in trip here is a bit of a negative though as is the rattling fast ground. I'm not sure he'll actually run and won't be surprised if he's pulls out if the track seems very firm.
The O'Brien trained ex US horse Verrazano ran well at Ascot and and is another with a hope if he can find a bit more over this trip but he's far from certain to stay.
There's a sound chance I'll back Night Of Thunder but I'll wait until closer to off time and see if Kingston Hill is actually running.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Eclipse Day at Sandown and a good card at Haydock with the Lancashire Oaks and the Old Newton Cup. Sandown is Good to Firm, Firm in places despite some morning rain. Haydock is Soft.
I don't put up horses on here just for the sake of it and some weeks it's really difficult to find many that I want to suggest. Last week and this have been very thin on the UK stuff and that trend continues today. There are two or three possibilities but nothing definite at this stage.
Eclipse Stakes
The Fugue is favourite and she has marginally the best figures.She flopped badly here last year but subsequently scoped dirty. She's a very solid and admirable mare and hard to knock but generally I like to look for 3-y-olds here especially if the classic generation looks above average which I think is the case this year.
Night Of Thunder was no match for Kingman last time at Ascot but there is no shame in going down to that horse who is potentially outstanding. His Guineas win is terrific form and it's just whether he can stay the mile and a quarter. Kingston Hill was clear second best in the Derby and again there is real merit running second to another potentially outstanding one in Australia. The drop back in trip here is a bit of a negative though as is the rattling fast ground. I'm not sure he'll actually run and won't be surprised if he's pulls out if the track seems very firm.
The O'Brien trained ex US horse Verrazano ran well at Ascot and and is another with a hope if he can find a bit more over this trip but he's far from certain to stay.
There's a sound chance I'll back Night Of Thunder but I'll wait until closer to off time and see if Kingston Hill is actually running.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Friday 4 July 2014
Caulfield & Rosehill Today - July Newsletter #2
Caulfield posts a Slow 6 with patchy showers around and the forecast is for more rain into the day. 3 to 10mm is the target range so if it comes it will definitely alter things.Monitor closely.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and dry so expect decent fast ground.
Caulfield
I'm not committing early to anything here early with so much weather uncertainty.
Race 3
Word Of Mouth and Leventi dominated a similar event at Flemington three weeks ago and they definitely stand out as the two most likely here - pretty sure I'll be doing something here but not committed yet- will advise via Twitter
Race 4
This is a good 3-y-o race and there are plenty of hopes. The form around Amovatio is solid and the claim is a big positive here. Despite having strong respect for him I do think he's a bit too short around 3.20 but that may not stop him being very popular. I have no idea what happened to Allez Eagle at Flemington last week but he rolled around like a "drunken sailor" over the last furlong.Nothing in the stewards report that explains it. Maybe he wants wet ground.Jessy Belle may have been a tad underdone last time (very easy to back late on Betfair).Her form around Griante gives her a live hope here.Best Suggestion is better than his current mark of 66 and he draws for a cosy on pace run here.
So Does He will probably improve for getting out to this trip.He is overs at 14.0 with Bet 365
May do something here-will advise via Twitter
Race 6
Lord Of The Sky heads the market around 2.80 now-it's impossible to lay on Betfair and it will blow.
It's unknown on seriously wet ground is up 5.5kg's from last time and had won only at 1000m-failed only attempt at 1100m. African Pulse comes back gelded and is the obvious alternative but your taking him on trust a bit. It's doesn't end there at all and this is decidedly tricky.
Rosehill
Race 3
With Zaba Zaba Doo resuming and very easy in betting I'm very strong on the chances of Encostanati. His form is progressive and rock solid and he draws for a nice run on the pace here. Foreign prince is the danger but he's resuming and may need this and another 200m.
Advised Bet: Encostanati 1.80 units at 2.90 or better-take the 3.40 now
Race 5
I thought Sir John Hawkwood was value for much more last time.He was held up the length of the straight and would have been much closer with a clear run.This trip suits now and he's well in here on his UK form. There are a few hopes here but I think he should be favourite and is nice overs with the TAB fixed odds
Advised Bet: Sir John Hawkwood 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 6.0 with the TAB fixed odds
Race 7
Zaratone is in good form and returns to Rosehill over 1100m on fast ground. These are the perfect conditions for him and whilst he is not getting any younger he's held his form really well over the years.Last two efforts at Randwick have been good but he goes better here. Should be favourite marginally over Cradle me but markets have them the other way around.
Advised Bet: Zaratone 1.55 units at 3.30 or better-take the 3.80 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Any further bets (very likely) and updates sent via Twitter
Rosehill is a Good 3 and dry so expect decent fast ground.
Caulfield
I'm not committing early to anything here early with so much weather uncertainty.
Race 3
Word Of Mouth and Leventi dominated a similar event at Flemington three weeks ago and they definitely stand out as the two most likely here - pretty sure I'll be doing something here but not committed yet- will advise via Twitter
Race 4
This is a good 3-y-o race and there are plenty of hopes. The form around Amovatio is solid and the claim is a big positive here. Despite having strong respect for him I do think he's a bit too short around 3.20 but that may not stop him being very popular. I have no idea what happened to Allez Eagle at Flemington last week but he rolled around like a "drunken sailor" over the last furlong.Nothing in the stewards report that explains it. Maybe he wants wet ground.Jessy Belle may have been a tad underdone last time (very easy to back late on Betfair).Her form around Griante gives her a live hope here.Best Suggestion is better than his current mark of 66 and he draws for a cosy on pace run here.
So Does He will probably improve for getting out to this trip.He is overs at 14.0 with Bet 365
May do something here-will advise via Twitter
Race 6
Lord Of The Sky heads the market around 2.80 now-it's impossible to lay on Betfair and it will blow.
It's unknown on seriously wet ground is up 5.5kg's from last time and had won only at 1000m-failed only attempt at 1100m. African Pulse comes back gelded and is the obvious alternative but your taking him on trust a bit. It's doesn't end there at all and this is decidedly tricky.
Rosehill
Race 3
With Zaba Zaba Doo resuming and very easy in betting I'm very strong on the chances of Encostanati. His form is progressive and rock solid and he draws for a nice run on the pace here. Foreign prince is the danger but he's resuming and may need this and another 200m.
Advised Bet: Encostanati 1.80 units at 2.90 or better-take the 3.40 now
Race 5
I thought Sir John Hawkwood was value for much more last time.He was held up the length of the straight and would have been much closer with a clear run.This trip suits now and he's well in here on his UK form. There are a few hopes here but I think he should be favourite and is nice overs with the TAB fixed odds
Advised Bet: Sir John Hawkwood 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 6.0 with the TAB fixed odds
Race 7
Zaratone is in good form and returns to Rosehill over 1100m on fast ground. These are the perfect conditions for him and whilst he is not getting any younger he's held his form really well over the years.Last two efforts at Randwick have been good but he goes better here. Should be favourite marginally over Cradle me but markets have them the other way around.
Advised Bet: Zaratone 1.55 units at 3.30 or better-take the 3.80 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Any further bets (very likely) and updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday 1 July 2014
Sandown & Warwick Farm Today- July Newsletter #1
Sandown is on again after being given the flick last week. It's a Slow 7 but it's a dry mild day so maybe it will upgrade. With all the problems they have had with the new surface it stands to reason that punters will be very cautious and will want to see how things pan out in early races.
Warwick Farm is a Good3 and good weather in Sydney so it should be decent fast ground there.
Sandown
Race 2
I thought there were four serious chances and early betting concurs. Excited Spirit (racing well winning last 2-harder now and unproven 2400m),Hot Power (good second last two and re-opposes both winners here on better terms,proven at 2400m, Diamond Jim (well ridden to beat Hot Power here then won Hurdle here subsequently), Knead The Dough (ex Sydney mare now with M. Kent,ran well first Victorian run in slightly higher grade,extra trip probably helps).
Excellent Spirit at 3.40 looks a bit skinny to me as I don't think there is very much between these four and I have them all in the 4.0/5.0 range
Race 5
This is an OK race with some that will prove to be quite handy. Both O'Malley and Sunday Escape have solid form that has been sudsequently franked. O'Malley is unproven on ground wetter than Dead5 and has had a 6 week freshen up. Sunday Escape is proven here in wet ground and the one that beat him is useful. Awkward gate though.
Amber Warning was very dominant winning a Sale maiden in wet ground and the third has won since.
Caprese, Kings Spirit,This Is The Show, Tannaset and Tatler Belle are other possibilities.
Race 6
By now we should no if the fence is any good or not and if the ground has quickened up any.
Both those queries stopped me backing Hard Romp early as he draws gate 1 and although he won in the wet last time I think dryer ground will help him and hinder Our Nikwazi. Liberty Rock is a danger but he will probably need further and be fitter for the run. No real early support for Draw Forward who would be a hope if returning to her best. Hotham Heights and Cavallo Nero are hopes but both struggle to win. May back Hard Romp if conditions appear favourable.
Race 8
Most Husbands is a bit short in early betting around 3.20 unless it's a dead set swoopers track and even then there is precious little guaranteed speed in this.There was no speed when he ran second last time though.That was a very good effort although he died on his run the last 80m there so dropping back in trip will help. He's turned his form around big time of late. Not sure here yet.
Warwick Farm
Race 6
Quite a few live hopes here and it should prove a solid marker for the future.
Bookies Favourite Specific Choice is at the head of betting and no doubt some will want to give him another go.Not me though.
Paederos has been good the last three runs and drops back 150m here after been off for 6 weeks. Has a very handy 3kg claimer and will either lead or be handy. Alcaraz was highly tried resuming and was well beaten. Was promising last prep and is hard to evaluate confidently at the moment. Perfect Weapon, Bermuda Blu and Cape Clear are all sound hopes in an open race. Eklands has been improving rapidly around the country tracks and whilst this is harder 16.0 does look generous enough (it's been much bigger but probably only for buttons) for a improver who draws well and gets a good run
Advised Bet: Eklands 0.40 units at 13.0 or better -is 16.0 with Ladbrokes. May be more here later
Race 7
The form around Topmast's maiden win and previous second has a solid look to it and he probably has more to offer but at better odds I prefer the Victorian raider Calibrate. He ran well at Sandown in the wet and suspect his best will be on dryer.Draws a good gate for a nice trail here and at 16.0 with Bet 365 is huge overs-I have him at 6.50!
Advised Bet: Calibrate 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Bet 365 if you can get it,13.0 in other places
Updates and any further bets sent via Twitter
Warwick Farm is a Good3 and good weather in Sydney so it should be decent fast ground there.
Sandown
Race 2
I thought there were four serious chances and early betting concurs. Excited Spirit (racing well winning last 2-harder now and unproven 2400m),Hot Power (good second last two and re-opposes both winners here on better terms,proven at 2400m, Diamond Jim (well ridden to beat Hot Power here then won Hurdle here subsequently), Knead The Dough (ex Sydney mare now with M. Kent,ran well first Victorian run in slightly higher grade,extra trip probably helps).
Excellent Spirit at 3.40 looks a bit skinny to me as I don't think there is very much between these four and I have them all in the 4.0/5.0 range
Race 5
This is an OK race with some that will prove to be quite handy. Both O'Malley and Sunday Escape have solid form that has been sudsequently franked. O'Malley is unproven on ground wetter than Dead5 and has had a 6 week freshen up. Sunday Escape is proven here in wet ground and the one that beat him is useful. Awkward gate though.
Amber Warning was very dominant winning a Sale maiden in wet ground and the third has won since.
Caprese, Kings Spirit,This Is The Show, Tannaset and Tatler Belle are other possibilities.
Race 6
By now we should no if the fence is any good or not and if the ground has quickened up any.
Both those queries stopped me backing Hard Romp early as he draws gate 1 and although he won in the wet last time I think dryer ground will help him and hinder Our Nikwazi. Liberty Rock is a danger but he will probably need further and be fitter for the run. No real early support for Draw Forward who would be a hope if returning to her best. Hotham Heights and Cavallo Nero are hopes but both struggle to win. May back Hard Romp if conditions appear favourable.
Race 8
Most Husbands is a bit short in early betting around 3.20 unless it's a dead set swoopers track and even then there is precious little guaranteed speed in this.There was no speed when he ran second last time though.That was a very good effort although he died on his run the last 80m there so dropping back in trip will help. He's turned his form around big time of late. Not sure here yet.
Warwick Farm
Race 6
Quite a few live hopes here and it should prove a solid marker for the future.
Bookies Favourite Specific Choice is at the head of betting and no doubt some will want to give him another go.Not me though.
Paederos has been good the last three runs and drops back 150m here after been off for 6 weeks. Has a very handy 3kg claimer and will either lead or be handy. Alcaraz was highly tried resuming and was well beaten. Was promising last prep and is hard to evaluate confidently at the moment. Perfect Weapon, Bermuda Blu and Cape Clear are all sound hopes in an open race. Eklands has been improving rapidly around the country tracks and whilst this is harder 16.0 does look generous enough (it's been much bigger but probably only for buttons) for a improver who draws well and gets a good run
Advised Bet: Eklands 0.40 units at 13.0 or better -is 16.0 with Ladbrokes. May be more here later
Race 7
The form around Topmast's maiden win and previous second has a solid look to it and he probably has more to offer but at better odds I prefer the Victorian raider Calibrate. He ran well at Sandown in the wet and suspect his best will be on dryer.Draws a good gate for a nice trail here and at 16.0 with Bet 365 is huge overs-I have him at 6.50!
Advised Bet: Calibrate 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-take the 16.0 with Bet 365 if you can get it,13.0 in other places
Updates and any further bets sent via Twitter
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