tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26599965253389999622024-02-08T10:30:07.773-08:00Max BlakeyMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.comBlogger502125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-31077243847985155602017-08-04T18:12:00.000-07:002017-08-04T18:12:08.641-07:00Flemington SaturdayFlemington posts a Good 4. It's a clear fresh morning with a high of 13 forecast and winds expected to pick up to around 30KPH during the afternoon. That wind will make leading that bit tougher in the circle races. Best ground is expected to be up the middle on the straight course and between 3 to 7 horse widths out up the straight in the circle races.<br />
<br />
<br />
Race 2<br />
<br />
Dulverton is going well but things are tougher today and the value here is Florida Pearl . His comeback run was very good and he was only run down late by a promising import in the Weir camp Andrea Mantegna who goes around here later today. 3 lengths behind was another Weir horse Kevin's Time who franked the form winning earlier this week.<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: Florida Pearl 1 unit at 5.50 or better. 10.0 with Ubet so have 50% of the stake there and monitor on Betfair with the balance <br />
<br />
Race 6<br />
<br />
Three main hopes here on my figures are Chequered Flag, Benall and Yogi. I think Yogi is too short I have him nearer 5.0 than the top offer of 3.0. Chequered Flag I have at 4.1 which you'll probably get but happy to play Benall at double figures I have him at 6.0<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: Benall 0.85 units at 6.50 or better. Take the 12.0 on offer with Crown or Sportsbet for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance <br />
<br />
<br />
Race 10<br />
<br />
I was very bullish about Poetic Ray last week in what was a almost identical race before the wind scuppered the meeting at Caulfield. No 17.0 bet early this week but still plenty of fat at 11.0 with Bet 365<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet : 1.25 units Poetic Ray at 4.50 or better. Take the 11.0 with Bet 365 with the SPG<br />
<br />
Quite a few others of interest today but I really want to see how markets develop before commiting.<br />
<br />
I had planned a daily blog covering the Goodwood Festival in England but the weather played havoc there over the first 2 days with some very wild results. The form had settled down yesterday but rain is due again just as racing begins tonight so it's best just watched for me I think.<br />
I'm stuck in a losing trough at the moment but hopefully the fight back will happen sooner rather than later.Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-8772977432402084172017-07-28T18:37:00.000-07:002017-07-28T18:37:47.758-07:00Caulfield SaturdayMild morning in Caulfield with a predicted high of 16 degrees and very breezy. Good 4 is posted but the wind may get it up to a Good 3 at some stage. The wind is blowing from the north so it'll be a factor today and front runners exposed to it are likely to be disadvantaged to a degree. It's hard to be dogmatic as the wind direction can change as can the strength. Currently 35 KMP but monitor what's going on as the afternoon progresses.<br />
<br />
Race 1<br />
<br />
I have Sullivan Bay on top here but she's on the drift this morning. As the likely leader she'll have the wind bias to deal with. She's also had a long prep and she was a bit flat at the business end last time. Forgeress, Every Faith and Divine Chills next in that order. Probably a race to sit out.<br />
<br />
Race 2<br />
I have Kiwia marked at 2.0 and Charlevoix at 3.90 with these 2 the only ones under double figures. Jocks will be desperate for cover here so they may end up walking along in the early sectionals. Not playing at this stage.<br />
<br />
Race 3<br />
Pass<br />
<br />
Race 4<br />
Tight handicap but happy to go with Kabrocco from a handy gate where he should get cover but not be too far off the front. It wasn't a pleasant watch if you took the shorts on him last time on the synthetic but I'm happy to put a line through that. I have him at 6.50 so happy to play with 9.50 the best current quote. Written Era (marked 8.3 and Tango Rock (marked 8.70) are next best on my figures<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: 0.70 units Kabrocco AT 7.0 or better. Have 50% of the stake with UBET at 9.50 and monitor on Betfair with the balance<br />
<br />
Race 5<br />
I have 3 marked under 10.00 here Poetic Ray at 4.0, Spanish Reef at 4.40 and Meat Traders at 7.20. I can only see upside for Poetic Ray who has plenty of scope to improve over the longer trip here. There is no reason that fast ground should present a problem and he's huge overs. He was 16.0 last night but money is coming now.<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: Poetic Ray 1.25 units at 4.50 or better . Take the 12.0 with Bet 365 with the SPG for 100% of the stake<br />
<br />
Race 6<br />
This is tricky. Surely Orachael is too short here around 3.30. she is one of many with a hope here but I have her much bigger. Not a race I like.<br />
<br />
Race 7<br />
We had no luck with Revolving Door last time. I have him marked at 2.50 and you should easily get that if the wind is counting against horses racing up front. I need a fair bit better to go in again though so no early bet advised. Nikitas and Wayanka next best<br />
<br />
Race 8<br />
If this were 1000m I might be tempted to give Lankan Rupee a go but I suspect the 1200m will find him out first up and I expect him to be easy to back. It's very tight this race. Supido, Keen Array, Savanna Amour, Choclate Holic and Ability all live hopes. I think Savanna Amour is probably the value go but at this stage I'm not involved so no bet advised.<br />
<br />
Race 9<br />
I have them marked Galaxy Raider 5.4, Portion Control 5.9, Cosmic Lights 6.7, Reneged 9.5, Black Sheep 10.3, Electric Fusion 12.1 and 18.0 bar these. Probably not playing here.<br />
<br />
Good Luck Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-54919052920835739302017-07-25T19:50:00.002-07:002017-07-25T19:50:44.735-07:00Sandown Hillside WednesdaySlow 6 posted for the Hillside track and currently raining. Most of the rain missed this morning and it's only a modest amount falling now so probably Slow 6 will be the worst it gets.<br />
No Betfair today so it'll be a quiet afternoon for me. 24 hours notice for a service outage is most unsatisfactory and Betfair need to look after their customers better. Had I known Monday I would have had a few days away midweek.<br />
No definite bets today and overall it's a tricky day.<br />
Good racing returns to the UK on the weekend and the Goodwood Festival runs Tuesday to Saturday next week so some light on the horizon after a pretty miserable month.<br />
Good luck if your playing today Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-10906647617617047342017-07-21T18:19:00.000-07:002017-07-21T18:19:09.445-07:00Flemington SaturdayDry day in Melbourne with a high of 12 degrees forecast. Flemington starts off a Good 4 but it's a breezy morning so it may upgrade at some point.<br />
<br />
Race 1<br />
Edediyin ran in some good races in Ireland and started as short as 5.0
in last years Irish Derby. He gave weight and a beating to Kellstorm in
Ireland last year and Kellstorm now his stablemate is rated 72 so
starting out here off a mark of 74 he is a well handicapped horse. He
was hard to rate first up over 1600m as he's obviously been bought as a stayer although he did win his maiden over 1700m as a two year old. If the market remains strong for him he'd have to be a strong chance. Dollar For Dollar makes some appeal but the price has moved from 4.60 yesterday to a best price of 3.80 now. I have him marked at 3.70 so there's no real fat in the price now. I expect him to have enough speed to cross from gate 8 and sit 2/3rd in the run. If he fails to get over or gets back then things will be much tougher for him. Gervais and Lamborghini are next best. <br />
<br />
Race 2<br />
Diapason should be unbeaten as in all of the three races she's not won she's been an unlucky loser. This is a tad harder than the race she ran second in last time at Sandown. Newitt is replaced by Ben Thompson which is surely a positive but the negative is the drop back to 1600m as this mare will only get better as her stamina is drawn out. I expect this will be her last run in a very good first prep.<br />
I'd like a chance to retrieve my losses on her but this is a very tricky race and at 3.90 she is too short. The only one I can discount in this race is Forty Nine riddles. None of the others would surprise. Very trappy contest.<br />
<br />
Race 4<br />
Portman on top marked 3.80 but he's top priced at 2.80 this morning so I need to look elsewhere for a bet. I don't like horses jumping grades and generally avoid them but occasional I will make an exception and I'm backing Rebellious Lord here. His maiden win was very good and he really quickened up when asked. His comeback run was a good though not as impressive as in the maiden but it was on very testing ground. Back on the dry today suits much better.<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: 0.65 units at 8.50 or better. Have half the stake at 10 with Bet 365 with SPG and monitor on Betfair with the balance.<br />
<br />
Race 5<br />
Both Ruby Sea and First Approach map badly and are drifting in betting to around the mark I have them 4.1 and 7.1 respectively. I want a bit more fat than that to play though as there is very little pressure upfront here and Lovani will be getting all the favours. St Franco is a promising horse as is last Sunday's maiden winner Ratoute Yutty and neither of these would surprise.<br />
<br />
Race 6<br />
Tricky -1200m down the straight and probably go steady early. Not betting but I have them marked<br />
4.8 Divine Mr Artie, 5.2 Ruettiger, 6.1 Rough Justice, 6.3 Moss And Dale, 6.6 Ozi Choice and 25.0 bar these.<br />
<br />
Race 7<br />
Kilimanjaro is rated 90 and if he's to be a live Cups contender he'll need to win a couple of races to get his rating up to get in. He can get one of those wins today. He need not get as far out of his ground as he did when resuming and he should be too classy for these. Pacodali is respected but I'm very keen here.<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: 2.25 units at 2.40 or better-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 SPG for 65% of the stake and the rest at Top Fluc if you can get it otherwise monitor on Betfair<br />
<br />
Race 8<br />
Thought Invictum Domina mapped well enough here to be a bet. I have her marked at 5.50 Whyouask, Swampland, Moonlightes Choice (very short!), Princess Of Queens and Special Diva next best in that order.23.0 bar these<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: 0.90 units Invictum Domina at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 with Bet 365 SPG for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance<br />
<br />
Race 9<br />
I'm not committed here but thought Knowable was clearly the one to beat if fit and ready to go first up. I'd need to see some strong market support first before getting involvedMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-88775743979074408772017-07-18T19:26:00.002-07:002017-07-18T19:26:40.662-07:00Sandown Hillside TodayIt was an inglorious return for this blog last week and I was left feeling quite flat after Saturday's racing. I'd had a very good week previously but last week was a shocker.<br />
Sandown was Soft 5 at 8am and there has been intermittent rain this morning with a bit more coming looking at the radar so I'd expect a downgrade. The rail is out 12m also. A tricky meeting initially it is made very difficult now with uncertainty around how the track will play.<br />
Winter racing in Victoria is a real grind for the punter. Personally I like to see it all moved to the all weather after Warnambool until the start of the new season in August.The only turf meetings being for the jumpers and the awful highweight races. Trainers, Jockeys and Punters who have had a good trot could then do the sensible thing and jet off to Europe or the Americas without missing much. If you can't get away for whatever reason at least you'd have some consistency surface wise so you wouldn't be left up the air wondering like we are today.<br />
No bets advised today. Back Saturday for Flemington and a couple of dry days forecast for Friday and Saturday so hopefully there will be some bets.Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-57860511776601280932017-07-15T01:17:00.000-07:002017-07-15T01:17:14.452-07:00July Cup At NewmarketNewmarket is good to firm for the final day of the July meeting. There is excellent action also at Ascot, York and Chester. This corresponding Saturday has proved very costly to me over many years with far more negative days than positive. The July Cup only switched to being a Saturday fixture a decade or so ago before then the July meeting ran Tuesday to Thursday. I'll keep things simple today and concentrate on the Cup which is a race that I've traditionally done well in.<br />
There is a potential equine superstar here in Caravaggio who overcame difficulties when winning at Royal Ascot and looked tremendous in doing so. I doubt that Harry Angel who finished second there can turn the table here. Limato is a terrific horse on his day and waltzed home in this last year. The Tin Man already has two G1 sprints under his belt and Tasleet was only a neck behind him at Ascot and is showing much improved form this year. It's a very strong field but nevertheless I have Caravaggio odds on at 1.80 and cannot get him any longer.<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: Caravaggio 2.75 units at 1.90 or better. Take the current 2.16 on Betfair for half the stake and average in with the balance. I expect this one to be very solid in betting late.Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-17770950428307588712017-07-14T18:27:00.001-07:002017-07-14T18:27:21.531-07:00Caulfield TodayGood 4 and a bright cool morning at Caulfield. Dry day forecast with wind not a factor.<br />
<br />
Race 1<br />
<br />
Data Point has obvious claims but is no value at all so I'm opposing. The big overs here is Emoji who gets a big weight swing with Orient Line who beat him last time. Emoji had a horrow passage that day at 21.0 with Bet365 is way over my figures.<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: Emoji 0.75units at 8.0 or better. take the 21.0 with Bet 365<br />
<br />
Race 6<br />
<br />
Stockdale takes a handy 3kg's of the back of Revolving Door and hopefully he can get over to track likely leader Toorak Cowboy without burning to much juice. He traveled like the best horse at the weights last time and was only nutted late. I have him a 3.50 shot here so 4.40 looks appealing.<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: Revolving Door 1.45 units at 3.70 or better. Have half the stake at 4.40 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee and average out the balance on Betfair.<br />
<br />
Race 7<br />
Supido is into the red now and I'm not really tempted to play at 1.75. The only other runner I have in single figures here is Lord Of The Sky who is returning from a tendon injury. If Supido gets back to around evens then I'll probably play but no bet advised as it stands.<br />
<br />
Race 8<br />
Sullivan Bay should cross and lead here and will be hard to pass. Divine Chills is the other main hope and I'm sure she'll go well but she seems best on a slow surface. If were a slow 5 I would have them closer and a slow 6 she would be marginally on top.<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: Sullivan Bay 1.65 units @ 3.20 or better. Take the 4.20 with Bet 365 with SP guarantee for half the stake and average the rest on Betfair. Divine Chills 0.75 units shop for best odds on Betfair.<br />
<br />
Race 9<br />
Schism is in great form and is a live hope but far too short on my figures. Airalign gets a good run up front or just behind the speed here and makes plenty of appeal.<br />
<br />
Suggested Bet: Airalign 0.90 units @ 6.0 or better. Take the 10.0 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee for half the stake and average out the rest on Betfair.<br />
<br />
Full program tonight in the UK including the G1 July Cup and the mighty Carravagio takes on the older horses for the first time. Hopefully I'll get time to preview a few races around 7pm <br />
<br />Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-73090322246173048452017-07-14T05:34:00.001-07:002017-07-14T05:34:29.564-07:00Newmarket July Meeting -Day TwoExcellent racing today not just at Newmarket. Both Ascot and York have good cards.<br />
I've run out of time today so no in depth analysis and no bets. Very close to putting up a handful of horses but in all cases I need better odds than the market currently offers.<br />
Back around 11am with a look at tomorrows Caulfield meeting Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-88481797301376313562017-07-13T01:18:00.001-07:002017-07-13T01:18:54.046-07:00Newmarket July Festival - Day 1Day one of the July meeting and the going is posted as Good. Dry day with highs in the low 20's expected so I expect the ground to play more towards Good to Firm as the day progresses.<br />
<br />
Race 1<br />
Quite a few of these like to races prominently so it should be true test. Atty Pearse was given a fine ride by his claiming rider to win at Royal Ascot. He jumps out of handicap grade to G3 level here but he's very progressive and very much the one to beat here. Raheen House has the best official figures and this trip will suit him as will the expected tempo. He's something of a nearly horse though and I expect Atty Pearce to progress past him here today. Crowned Eagle was outclassed in the Derby but looked good winning a handicap and beating a decent horse before that. He's a hope if he can get the trip.<br />
Suggested Bet 1.55 units Atty Pearse at 3.30 or better. Around 3.9 on Betfair and 3.75 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee <br />
<br />
Race 2<br />
Group 2 over 6 furlongs for two year olds. Rajasingh won the Coventry at Royal Ascot so is top on all rating but the principals were very bunched there at it may turn out to be a sub standard renewal.<br />
I rarely bet in two year old races and this one looks very tricky.<br />
<br />
Race 4<br />
Poet's Word is a non runner and he was my choice here. Frontiersman is clearly the one to beat now but he's a bit short at evens so passing here.<br />
<br />
The handicaps and the last race a Listed contest are all good races but difficult to unravel. <br />
<br />
<br />Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-28986559296353948092017-07-11T19:33:00.001-07:002017-07-11T19:35:07.796-07:00Sandown TodaySandown posts a Slow 6 and it's a dry day in Melbourne but a very cold morning so doubt it will improve that much. Not the most appealing card but there are some comments on a couple of races.<br />
<br />
Race 5<br />
My first thoughts here were that I wanted to try and find something to beat Yogi at around evens as he gets back and took an age to find top gear last time. He's up 9 points since he started out this prep but he does look very progressive and run on horses may well be suited here today. The Willybe gets an easy time upfront here probably and he looks the obvious alternative third up out to 2100m. Northern Journey's best effort would give him a chance but he's not a horse I could back. Manapine is a hope but probably wants it drier. May do something here but not committed at the moment.<br />
<br />
Race 8<br />
Galaxy Raider was desperately unlucky here last time but that's not the first time he's lost a race he should have won and he can certainly find trouble in running. He's up in grade here also and on a slower track. He's the obvious and must go close with any luck but there are enough negatives to stop me getting involved at anything under 3.20. Sweet Melody did well on her first prep with Weir and she'll probably improve again this time in. She looked really good first up over 1400m at Cranbourne last time and if she's ready to go and the market is positive about her she'll be a live chance.<br />
<br />
I haven't backed anything early so there are no suggested bets as I never put anything up on the blog unless I'm committed to backing it myselfMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-5339259639290980152017-07-09T01:11:00.002-07:002017-07-09T01:11:50.126-07:00Relaunching The BlogIt's over two years since I stopped writing the blog 3 to 4 times a week. After I made the move back to Melbourne there was simply too much happening as regards family and health to find the time or the inclination to deal with it. Happily things are back on an even keel again. My Daughter has only a few months left before she finishes her VCE and my heart issues seem to be resolved now after having a pacemaker fitted at the end of last year. That was a big decision to make as I am now completely "pacemaker dependent" so it's only the small electronic devise implanted in my chest that is keeping me alive. It's working perfectly and the battery should last 8 to 10 years so until then hopefully there will be no problems.<br />
Despite all the drama's going on last year was my most profitable since I moved to Australia twenty years ago. This year started well but the second quarter was very slow so I have a bit of catching up to do to match last year. The second half of the year is generally more profitably than the first for me so it may happen if I get a charge on over the next few months.<br />
Some very positive changes with the minimum bet rules a real game changer and hopefully the move is followed in SA and WA -Queensland plan to introduce it but haven't yet. Tassmania came on board recently. The credit for this lies with Richard Irvine who has campaigned tirelessly for a better deal for punters and all of us who bet seriously owe him a big thank you. He's proof that if you have a sound argument and are persistent one dedicated person can make things happen. He deserves an AO for the work he's done and I hope he gets one sometime down the line.<br />
Unfortunately there are some serious negatives that threaten to undermine things. Firstly the inevitable decision by Racing NSW to raise it's race fields fee by 33% and more during carnival time makes it very difficult for Betfair to continue operating on NSW racing as their business model simply cannot operate profitably when charged on a turnover basis at these kinds of rates. When Racing NSW need to up the prize money again they will simply raise the fee again. Betfair cannot be making anything on NSW now so why they are persisting baffles me. Only by pulling out do they have any hope of negotiating a fair deal. If they do pull out of NSW then turnover will drop sufficiently for the racing authorities to realize that exchanges aren't bookmakers and shouldn't be charged accordingly. I've virtually sacked NSW racing as I'm not playing on Betfair at these commission rates and the whole thing is going nowhere at the moment. Contrary to what many media pundits said and reported I thought last year's Autumn Carnival was by far the poorest I've experienced since I began following Australian racing 30 years ago. <br />
The SA Government's decision to introduce a "point of consumption" tax which became effective last week threatens to be taken up by other states. Bookmakers are already paying GST and this tax is effectively double dipping. If this becomes widespread punters will be the losers. Bookies have shareholders to answer to and costs will be clawed back by increased margins. The current SA Government must be the worst in living memory and again betting companies need to show some teeth here by simply not betting on SA racing until this idiotic tax is repealed. I heard a rumour that Sportsbet were going to drop SA racing last week but they had listings for yesterday's meeting at Gawler when I looked on Friday night. I may sound like an apologist for Bookmakers and their interests but if you are a punter any charges levied on them are going to be passed on to you.<br />
If you bet on Betfair outside of Australia the commission is a base 5%. Here we are paying bases of between 6 and 10% simply because Racing NSW chooses to charge the way it does. Their prize money is great but the punters are the ones paying for it.<br />
Last Friday the Racing Post in the UK ran a full front page with the headine "Why The Whip Must Be Banned". The article was well written and presented a balanced argument which I totally disagree with. I am not a horseman but all of the ones I have spoken to over the years would be aghast at the idea of racing without whips. Besides the modern whip is not the same as the ones previously used.<br />
My first thought when I saw this front page last week was "talk about the enemy within". I don't know who edit's the Racing Post nowadays but the general consensus from a handful of people I've spoken to over there was that it was an act of treachery and simply gives your enemy ammunition to use against you.<br />
Here in Australia last week's Sandown meeting there was a slight delay to correct weight with jockey Dwayne Dunn viewing the stewards footage due to possible overuse of the whip by the winning rider.<br />
This whip rule is lunacy in it's current form and needs to be got rid of pronto. Nobody wants to see horses flogged but if there are occasions of it the penalty must be against the rider. Clear guidelines are there but breaches should not threaten the result. Fines and suspensions that reflect the prize money and the riders experience is the simple way to administer this.<br />
Horse Racing and it's administrators need to realize that you will never appease the anti-racing minority so why try. Racing is not followed by the majority anymore it's a minority who are interested nowadays but a very sizable minority nevertheless. Like all minorities you've got to show the rest that you are not going to be pushed around and have plenty of bullets to fire if it becomes necessary to do so. Racing generates employment for a considerable number of people. The people who do follow it get a lot of pleasure from it. Money grabs by administrators and governments threaten the currently healthy status quo and need to be vigorously resisted.<br />
<br />
Winter racing in Australia is very modest fare so I'll only be putting the blog out generally for the midweek metro meeting and Saturdays until things pick up a bit in a few weeks. Newmarket's July festival runs for three days starting Thursday and I'll be looking at that each day.<br />
Back on Wednesday trying to find a winner or twoMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-43592410386903429032015-02-03T17:57:00.000-08:002015-02-03T17:57:13.694-08:00Sandown & Warwick Farm TodayBoth Sandown and Warwick Farm post Good 3. Currently dry at both venues but there is a possibility of rain later in the day at Warwick Farm.<br />
A very average midweek offering today and I can't really enthuse about anything. I have no opinions worth passing on for Warwick Farm but there are some observations regarding Sandown.<br />
<br />
Sandown<br />
<br />
Race 2<br />
Northern Lyric might get a soft lead here but the current 2.10 is poison odds. The race he won at Cranbourne last time was very on pace dominated and he's now 13 points higher than when he won his first race this prep back in October. This race is far more open that current markets suggest.<br />
<br />
Race 6<br />
Don't Plead Guilty looked good winning his maiden on debut back in September. He's a horse with the potential to do better but 3.80 looks skinny. He couldn't get the job done off this mark in -64 grade at Sale and Cranbourne last prep so you'd think a midweek -64 would be a bit more challenging. In reality there's not much difference standard wise from midweek to provincial grade these days as these midweekers continue to decline quality wise.<br />
Diamondcowboy is an 8 year old having start 63 here. A change of stables seems to have re-juvinated him and he's won both starts this year, one at the picnics and a -58 grade event at Benalla. That latter win was a demolition job and on a line through the consistent runner up Chosen Son this horse is right back to his best. There no obvious pace is this race and he's a get back, charge home type so you couldn't be confident but he's the only horse I'm thinking of backing today. The claim for Bayliss may be a bonus too.Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-5528530719584447042015-01-30T17:26:00.002-08:002015-01-30T17:26:32.597-08:00Flemington & Rosehill TodayFlemington is a Good 3 and it's generally dry with a slight chance of a little rain but doubt even if it comes it will make any great difference.<br />
Rosehill is a Slow 6 but drying all the time. May upgrade.<br />
<br />
The few weeks I had away from the racing at the end of last year gave me a chance to formulate some new statergies. This month I've been trying out some new ideas. Just because things work well initially doesn't mean they will continue to do so but I really have had an excellent month trying out these new ideas. Hopefully it won't be a flash in the pan. This game has changed so much in the last few years and you constantly have to be evolving or the pack will catch you up and pass you.<br />
<br />
Racing looks very tough to call at Rosehill and I can offer nothing there of any worth.<br />
<br />
Flemington has a few shorties that look hard to oppose but offer no value at current quotes namely Lucky Liberty, Better Land and Tonopah. Akzar probably falls into the same catergory although I might be tempted to back him if he got out to 3.0 but that looks unlikely.<br />
<br />
I generally have very few bets in January but it's been a drought this month. I don't put up anything on the blog unless I'm definitely backing it myself.<br />
Next blog will be Wednesday with metro meeting at Sandown and CanterburyMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-88826399791743532052015-01-25T17:03:00.000-08:002015-01-25T17:13:18.127-08:00Australia Day Racing at Sandown & CanterburyBoth Sandown and Canterbury post Good 3. There's been a bit of rain around Melbourne this morning and may be a bit more to come but I doubt it will alter the state of the track too much. Canterbury has a fair bit of rain forecast for today but it hasn't arrived yet and currently the radar is clear. Monitor conditions there later but at the moment things look fine.<br />
I did some research last year going through my figures over many years and they confirmed what I suspected which was that I was showing a modest loss overall on bets placed on public holidays. The natural conclusion to that is to take these days off like the majority of people. Those results were only on back bets though and as I now do most of my business on the "lay" side of the exchange it hopefully makes sense to carry on.<br />
<br />
Canterbury shapes up as a pretty unappealing card overall although in the last there Ay No Digas resumes of a handicap mark of 69. I think this horse has some scope to rate a fair bit higher than that and the booking of Bowman is interesting. He's shortened a bit in early markets and providing the track is dry come post time I might be tempted to have a bit on him. Not committed at this stage.<br />
<br />
Sandown has a very good card with some decent horses in action.<br />
<br />
Race 1<br />
I'm not betting here but I did think that the two at the top of the market Taiyoo and Practised were both a bit of unders. Taiyoo has to step up to an unproven 2400m and Practised rises from BM78 grade to open company.<br />
<br />
Race 2<br />
I like The Quarterback but he'll have his work cut out here to beat Shamal Wind who makes a fair bit of appeal here with Dwayne Dunn engaged. Her only fresh miss was last prep when she was bailed up throughout around the Valley. I wish there was some genuine speed in this race but it's a bit inconclusive and it looks like a sit and sprint affair. Both Shamal Wind and The Quarterback are closers so passing is probably the wisest option.<br />
<br />
Race 6<br />
This is a good race and it will be a strong form reference for the coming weeks. If Fast Cash can run out 1300m than he'll be hard to beat here as he's fit and flying. He looked very strong to the line at the Valley over 1200m but he did have a "bludge"run there. 1400m found him out at Flemington at the end of his last prep (could have had enough by then) and the pedigree is all speed. Gate 2 may not be any great help to him either as he's got outpaced early in races before. If this was 1200m I'd be playing at 3.70 but I think it's only evens him running out the trip so I think I'm going to pass with a few promising ones opposing.<br />
<br />
With Saturday's bet scratched I'm still to get going betting wise this year. Sorry it's all ultra cautious stuff so far but things will pick up soon enoughMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-44795532050053761862015-01-23T16:28:00.002-08:002015-01-23T16:28:50.111-08:00Moonee Valley & Randwick TodayMoonee Valley posts a Good 4 and Randwick a Good 3. Temperatures touching the high twenties and sunny is the forecast for both venues so fast summer ground looks likely.<br />
The card at Moonne Valley is very challenging and there are no bets there.<br />
The feature is the G2 Australia Stakes and Dissident who snagged two G1's last prep resumes. Bookies are offering 1.85 currently but I expect they will want to lay him so no surprise to see "black" figures. On the ratings he's well clear but resuming at 1200m around here and with bigger targets ahead it should be an easy decision for smart punters to pass.<br />
<br />
At Randwick in Race 2 Meursault looks very hard to beat but the value has dried up now and Evens looks about the right price.<br />
<br />
Race 3 has a strong favourite in Centre Pivot who's having a great prep and produced a career best last time. He's up 6 points for that which is fair enough so easily did he win but more pertinently up 300m in trip. He was strong late last time but the extra distance is a serious query and I rate his chance of running it out at 65%. That's enough to put me off at 2.20 so passing here.<br />
<br />
Race 6 is the Listed Australia Day Cup. Oriental Lady's is the obvious after a strong finishing second in the Gosford Cup but I'd want better than current quotes to be interested and really these distance races in Sydney are a graveyard for punters especially if you backing horses that settle off the pace.<br />
<br />
Race 7 is another Listed contest this time over a more appealing 1400m.<br />
Spurtonic follows up from his good win at the Magic Millions.He has a dodgy gate to overcome but is only up a point for his last win so if he get's the breaks he's a chance.<br />
A fully fit Ninth Legion would be a serious hope but he may just need the comeback run.<br />
That's A Good Idea almost downed the very promising Ball Of Muscle at Gosford last time but he looks short enough to me at 3.70.<br />
She's Clean was ultra impressive last time coming from last and leaving a weaker field than this in her wake. She was very strong in the market that day which suggests that she must have been going very well at home.Her record at Randwick is good and a repeat of her latest effort ( not at all guaranteed with a 6-y-old mare) will make her very hard to beat. I have her rated 3.50 here and 4.0 is on offer this morning. You should be able to get better than that as the market fluctuates.<br />
<br />
Advised Bet: She's Clean 1.45 units at 3.70 or better-monitor betting don't go in too early look for >4.0 at least <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-52309112633268449252015-01-16T17:37:00.002-08:002015-01-16T17:40:52.584-08:00Flemington & Randwick TodayEarly rain around Melbourne has generally cleared although a possibility of light showers remains. Good 3 is the posting and doubt that changes even if a little rain does hit the track.<br />
Randwick is a Good 3 and it's a fine sunny day there so fast Summer ground is the order of the day.<br />
I took six weeks away from the racing and it's felt like six months this week. Summer racing in Australia is very moderate stuff and it's hard work ploughing through the form when the horses are so ordinary. I've pushed myself hard this week to stick with it but I've only managed to do around 20% of the business I would usually do in a normal week. What I have managed to do has worked thankfully but it's been a grind.<br />
I'm giving Randwick a wide bearth today I just can't get an solid hand on the racing there today. The ones that look sound hopes are all too short for me to be interested.<br />
Flemington is at least an interesting card but very tough. I'm not putting any bets up again this week I think I'll need another week back at least before I feel confident enough to be trying to persude anyone to follow anything I'm backing. The ones I did look seriously at are Zanteco in Race 1, Bayoonah in Race 3, and Simply You in Race 6.<br />
Zanteco was 6.0 earlier in the week and is now top priced 4.40 which is about right.<br />
Bayoonah was 6.0 earlier which would have been very appealing but at 3.0 now she's short enough coming out of a maiden into Saturday grade. She's 1100m to 1400m here and will eat up the extra distance and is definitely the one to beat.<br />
Simply You went back from a wide draw at the Valley and was never going to bridge the gap thereafter. Her closing sectionals were excellent though and I can't see her getting too far back today. At around 4.50 she borderline value but I might be tempted to back her if she gets out to >5.0 <br />
That's as much as I can help anyone with today. Things will pick up gradually and we are only four weeks away from G1 racing returning so the better animals will be resuming shortlyMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-61095155189892685522015-01-13T15:53:00.001-08:002015-01-13T15:53:28.277-08:00Sandown & Canterbury TodayBoth Sandown and Canterbury post a Soft 5. Both are likely to dry out as the day goes on particularly Canterbury which has a hot dry day ahead so no surprise to see an upgrade to Good there.<br />
Both cards fail to appeal from a betting point of view and there are no bets today.<br />
<br />
In race 3 at Sandown The Red Horse is the one that I think will have more to offer. 10.0 was on offer when betting opened and he was cut almost immediately. He's got good wet track form and most would have expected Sandown today to be wetter looking at the forecast on Monday evening when betting opened. His return effort last week was good and the quick back up and the extra 200m are encouraging. The bare form around him suggests 6.0 is no value with a wide gate in a race of indeterminate pace. He may ease in the market with the drying track. I can't put him up as a bet as the bare figures suggest he is just a hope in a difficult race but my gut feeling is he'll be around the money.<br />
<br />Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-71349178330088839172015-01-09T17:07:00.001-08:002015-01-09T17:07:17.811-08:00Magic Millions at the Gold Coast, Flemington and RandwickThis is the first blog of 2015 and I am slowly getting back into the swing of things after taking a few weeks away from the racing. I've also relocated and am back living in Melbourne now.<br />
I had hoped to be back on top on things by now but wading through replays for days on end still doesn't leave me feeling I'm completely back in the groove just yet.<br />
Magic Millions day up on the Gold Coast and this is not a meeting I can ever manage to get too enthused about despite the money that's on offer. I had a scan through the races there and it looks potentially a bookies benefit especially with a fair bit of juice in the ground. If your playing there today good luck but I'll definitely be staying out.<br />
Tough cards at both Flemington and Randwick today both offering typical off season Saturday cards.<br />
The only races that interested me today were races 5 and 8 at Flemington.<br />
<br />
Flemington<br />
<br />
Race 5<br />
Quite tight and not easy to be confident but I thought Turnitaround's chance was every bit as strong as Lord Athernaeum and a bit stronger than Von Classic Hero. I'm not putting up any bets today as I'm not confident my figures are as accurate as I'd normally judge them to be but if I do end up backing anything today it will be this one.<br />
<br />
Race 8<br />
The Quarterback is definitely the one to beat here but 3.20 is a bit thin so I won't be playing at those odds. He was good at Flemington on New Year's Day. There looks to be enough pace here on paper to suit him but the pace on the straight course at Flemington doesn't always pan out how you think and it would be no surprise if they ended up going steady here. Passing.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately I haven't got much of worth to pass on today but things will pick up soon enough.Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-42122743141235355852014-12-26T16:36:00.001-08:002014-12-26T16:36:06.969-08:00Seasons Greetings and Happy New Year to AllI've had a few week's away from the racing and have relocated away from the tropical North back to Melbourne. Still waiting for Telstra to connect my internet and all went very smoothly bar for them. Hopefully they will have me connected next week. Running with a mobile Wi-Fi meanwhile.<br />
At the moment I'm catching up with what's been happening whilst I've had a bit of time off so it will be a week or two before I'm fully back in the swing of things. I'm aiming to relaunch the blog on Jan. 10 and I'll be trying to present things a little differently this year.<br />
A quick glance at today's racing has me tempted to break my resolve to stay out until I'm all set up and ready to go again. Dothraki in R6 at Canterbury is this one that's tempting me.<br />
Happy and Prosperous New Year wishes to you allMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-10780075767976216082014-11-09T23:41:00.000-08:002014-11-09T23:41:11.198-08:00Last Weeks Round Up and YTD FiguresThings started off well last week but fell away later. I actually had a very good week but that's not mirrored in what I sent out on the blog and "tweeted" through as I'm doing far more on the "lay" side of the exchange now than I am on the "back" side these days.<br />
Here are last weeks figures:<br />
<br />
UK & Int.<br />
Nothing advised<br />
<br />
Australia<br />
<br />
Bets advised in the blog - bets in 5 races - 2 winners<br />
<br />
Stakes 7.10<br />
Profit 5.23<br />
<br />
Bets advised via twitter - bets in 11 races - no winners<br />
<br />
Stakes 11.90<br />
Loss 11.90<br />
<br />
Overall for the week Loss 6.62 units<br />
<br />
YTD Figures<br />
<br />
Stakes 475.30<br />
Profit 75.06<br />
POT 15.79%<br />
<br />
I was very conscious on the last day of the Flemington Carnival that I am badly in need of a break.<br />
I had planned to through November and have December off but my brains are beginning to scramble so this will be the last post this year. I've had a good year far better than these figures show as my bets have only accounted for 28% of this year's profits. Trading and laying on the exchange have provided the bulk of my earnings<br />
At this point I think it unlikely that I will continue with the blog next year but I may change my mind after a decent break.<br />
<br />Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-44067434548917954512014-11-07T16:58:00.002-08:002014-11-07T16:58:59.305-08:00Flemington Carnival - Day Four & RandwickFlemington is upgraded to a Good 3 and it's a hot day there with a cool change forecast later. Strong hot northerly winds which are likely to turn around when the change comes.<br />
Randwick is a Dead 4 but should upgrade as it's a dry warm day there.<br />
<br />
A bad bout of "gastro" yesterday evening and I'm way behind as a result.<br />
Seriously difficult card at Flemington and definitely no early bets there. May get involved as the day goes on but nothing stands out as a bet at this stage.<br />
The card at Randwick looks more "punter friendly" and I've had one early bet there and another couple are likely as markets open up.<br />
<br />
Randwick<br />
<br />
Race 2<br />
This looks very open but I thought Powerline's win at Warwick Farm was very dominant and he deserves a crack at Saturday grade. He's available at 8.50 and that looks a very fair offer. I have him at 6.0<br />
<br />
Advised Bet: Powerline 0.85 at 6.20 or better-take the 8.50 with Bet 365 (SPG) also 8.50 with Sportsbet and Tatts.<br />
<br />
Almost certainly more today and further bets/updates sent via TwitterMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-47005160421063437172014-11-05T16:55:00.000-08:002014-11-05T16:55:25.770-08:00Flemington Carnival Day Three- Oaks DaySome ultra competitive races today as you'd expect. Races 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 9 are all tricky puzzles to solve although some value at odds may show up as we get into the day.<br />
<br />
Race 4<br />
Beauty's Beast was a very weak favourite when running like an unfit horse at Caulfield last time. Expect him to be spot on today at his home track and be very hard to beat.<br />
<br />
Advised Bet: Beauty's Beast 1.40 units at 3.75 or better- take the 4.00 with Bet 365 for 35% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance<br />
<br />
Race 7<br />
After Saturday when the inside looked a no go zone (Tuesday it looked to have evened out) you'd want to see what effect the watering has had before ploughing in early. Providing there looks to be no bias I think Angel's Beach will be very hard to roll. I'm not committed yet but I have her around 2.60 assuming it's a level playing surface.<br />
<br />
Race 8 Oaks<br />
Go Indy Go has the best figures and she will love the trip. She's the most likely winner for me and I've already backed her. There is still good value in her current price though. I have her rated at 3.00 and 4.80 is still available and she may trade a tad higher as markets open up.<br />
<br />
Advised Bet: Go Indy Go 1.65 units at 3.20 or better - take the 4.80 with Bet 365 (SP Guarantee) for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance<br />
<br />
I missed getting Grand Marshal out in the tweet on Tuesday due to being distracted for 5 mins and being so busy. The price crashed pretty quickly having been around 5.50 on Betfair all morning.<br />
<br />
Any further Bets/Updates sent via twitterMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-16001659109018941352014-11-03T15:41:00.003-08:002014-11-03T15:41:54.829-08:00Flemington Carnival Day Two - Melbourne Cup DayDead 4 posted at Flemington and currently dry but with a narrow band of heavy rain moving in from the west and a lighter band of rain following it. Doubt it gets any worse than dead but depending on where it hits and in what quantity will determine if we are racing on good or worse. Monitor.<br />
I dealt with the Cup in an earlier post and the for the advised bets I stick to the two at the best value.<br />
<br />
Melbourne Cup<br />
<br />
Advised Bets; Signoff 0.75 units at 7.0 or better and Protectionist 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-<br />
Shop around for the best deal you can get<br />
<br />
Other races of interest at Flemington today are<br />
<br />
Race 2<br />
<br />
Advised Bets: Khutulun 0.85 units at 6.0 or better and Precious Gem 0.85 units at 6.0 or better<br />
<br />
Race 3<br />
<br />
Grand Marshall of interest here -not committed yet<br />
<br />
Race 4<br />
<br />
The Quarterback of interest here<br />
<br />
Race 5<br />
<br />
Not betting here<br />
<br />
Race 6<br />
<br />
Not betting here<br />
<br />
Race 8<br />
<br />
Stipulate and Quayside of interest here<br />
<br />
Race 9<br />
<br />
Target In Sight of interest here<br />
<br />
Race 10<br />
<br />
Rose Of Choice of interest here<br />
<br />
Updates and Bets advised via TwitterMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-27173616470839823612014-11-03T03:11:00.004-08:002014-11-03T03:11:55.057-08:00Melbourne Cup 2014It's dry in Melbourne on the eve of the Cup. Chance of a little rain tomorrow and a cool change is forecast for late afternoon bringing very strong wind gusts. If it arrives earlier then it may be a factor especially if it brings rain as well. At this stage though it looks like good decent ground.<br />
Overseas runners and imported stayers plus the constricted weight scale have dramatically altered this race over the last dozen years. It's a handicap of course but only genuinely high class horses win these days and two thirds of the field are impossible to fancy at all if your a serious form analyst.<br />
I'm not emphatic about any particular horse this year but I think it's odds on the winner comes from a batch of five runners. That presents a real punting opportunity if you shop around and get the best offerings available. If you choose three of the serious hopes and save on the other two you should average around 2.00 your stake and that's a very attractive proposition as the true odds are nearer to 1.65. I know that doesn't sound a very attractive proposition to the majority of punters but that's probably how I'll play it. Anyone of these five is "overs" at their overnight quotes although Lucia Valentina and Fawkner are only marginally so on my figures.<br />
<br />
My top five in order are:<br />
<br />
Signoff- 51kg's and the best is yet to come-peaks perfectly and has the momentum<br />
<br />
Protectionist- unexposed and terrific trial run-almost certainly better than bare form reads<br />
<br />
Admire Rakti- Caulfield Cup the best trial and strong winner-only a 0.5kg penalty<br />
<br />
Lucia Valentina- Equal of winner in Caulfield Cup. May need luck from gate getting clear passage<br />
<br />
Fawkner- Good from hopeless position last year-second Cox Plate and sure to be thereabouts<br />
<br />
Outside these Who Shot The Barman may still have scope to do better and My Ambivalent has a very good fresh record and would be a serious contender had she not had an interrupted preparation and a query at the trip.Max Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2659996525338999962.post-60771051988740281092014-11-02T22:21:00.002-08:002014-11-02T22:21:53.650-08:00October Round UpA very modest overall profit in October with a 9.00 unit profit on the UK & International bets and a loss of 7.46 in Australia. Here's the breakdown:<br />
<br />
UK & International<br />
<br />
Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 2 races - 1 winner<br />
<br />
Stakes 3.70<br />
Profit 2.70 units<br />
<br />
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 6 races - 2 winners<br />
<br />
Stakes 5.40<br />
Profit 6.70 units<br />
<br />
UK & Int. total for October PROFIT 9.00 units<br />
<br />
<br />
Australia<br />
<br />
Bets advised in the blog - berts advised in 11 races - 1 winner<br />
<br />
Stakes 13.40<br />
Loss 6.37units<br />
<br />
Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 16 races - 3 winners<br />
<br />
Stakes 18.10<br />
Loss 1.09 units<br />
<br />
Australia total for October LOSS 7.46 units<br />
<br />
Total for October Overall PROFIT 1.54 units<br />
<br />
Year to date figures:<br />
<br />
Stakes 456.30<br />
Profit 81.68 units<br />
POT 17.90%<br />
<br />
Melbourne Cup tommorrow so back thenMax Blakeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12774983879540058168noreply@blogger.com0