Moonee Valley is posted a Dead 4 for this evening's fixture.There are a few dots of rain around at the moment but they hardly amount to anything so I expect an upgrade to a Good 3 sooner rather than later.
A few more possibilities may present as the markets open up but from early markets I've had just the one bet.
Moonee Valley
Race 4
The market is quite open here but I think Use The Lot stands out clearly.The market suggested that he'd still need the run when a close up fourth at Mornington.He travelled really well in that race and only weakened late when lack of condition told.He's trialled since and up to this trip tonight is ready to show his best.He finished off last prep winning in Saturday grade at Caulfield over 2400m.The horse he beat that day Stable Star franked the form subsequently and is now rated 86.Use The Lot races off 70 tonight and that looks lenient for a horse who's still got plenty more to offer.He's the likely leader here and should get to control this race.I have him 3.25 max. here and 4.80 is available generally.
Advised Bet: Use The Lot 1.55 units at 3.50 or better-4.80 is good value
If there is anymore tonight I'll send details via Twitter
Thursday 31 October 2013
October Round Up
A thoroughly miserable month for the blog and it's writer.It's over now so I can concentrate on the next one and hopefully retrieve the losses.Here are last months figures:
UK
Blog Bets advised in 3 races -1 winner (saver)
Stakes 4.60
Returns 2.40
Loss 2.20
Tweets Bets advised in 5 races -No winners
Stakes 3.85
Loss 3.85
UK total for the month LOSS 6.05 units
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 22 races -2 winners
Stakes 27.00
Returns 14.27
Loss 12.73
Tweets Bets advised in 16 races -2 winners
Stakes 17.80
Returns 11.05
Loss 6.75
Australia total for the month LOSS 19.48 units
Overall total for the month LOSS 25.53 Units
OUCH-that hurts!
UK
Blog Bets advised in 3 races -1 winner (saver)
Stakes 4.60
Returns 2.40
Loss 2.20
Tweets Bets advised in 5 races -No winners
Stakes 3.85
Loss 3.85
UK total for the month LOSS 6.05 units
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 22 races -2 winners
Stakes 27.00
Returns 14.27
Loss 12.73
Tweets Bets advised in 16 races -2 winners
Stakes 17.80
Returns 11.05
Loss 6.75
Australia total for the month LOSS 19.48 units
Overall total for the month LOSS 25.53 Units
OUCH-that hurts!
Wednesday 30 October 2013
Update
Apologies for no blog so far this week.I took a bit of time off earlier in the week and had prior commitments yesterday morning.
Another disappointing week last week and it's been a poor month.I'll do a round up of the month later today but it'll be sad reading.
Yesterday's meeting at Bendigo was very hard to call early.Sertorius was the obvious in the Cup but when you consider he'd had heat in his leg the week prior and was getting out to 2400m for the first time you could hardly be confident around 4.0.Today's card at Seymour is also tough to call early and I doubt I'll be betting.
I'll round up the month later and then look forward to the big week ahead
Another disappointing week last week and it's been a poor month.I'll do a round up of the month later today but it'll be sad reading.
Yesterday's meeting at Bendigo was very hard to call early.Sertorius was the obvious in the Cup but when you consider he'd had heat in his leg the week prior and was getting out to 2400m for the first time you could hardly be confident around 4.0.Today's card at Seymour is also tough to call early and I doubt I'll be betting.
I'll round up the month later and then look forward to the big week ahead
Saturday 26 October 2013
Sale Cup Day
Dead 4 posted for Sale for the Cup meeting.No rain around so it may dry out to a Good 3.
Not a lot of obvious value in the supporting races but I think the Cup market is a bit out of line.
Sale
Race 7
Rhythm To Spare was very dominant at Caulfield and is listed as favourite at 2.60.That's too short.I don't think there is much to chose between him,Mouro and Mutual Trust.I'll take a chance on Mutual Trust at the 6.50 on offer against my rating of 5.0.He's a G1 winner in France and showed definite signs of a return to form in the G1 Toorak last time.Critically he'll be up front and the other two main hopes will be giving him a start
Advised Bet: Mutual Trust 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365/6.0 elsewhere
There are a couple of possibilities at Hamilton and Sale if markets open up a bit so if I'm backing anything else I'll send details via Twitter
Not a lot of obvious value in the supporting races but I think the Cup market is a bit out of line.
Sale
Race 7
Rhythm To Spare was very dominant at Caulfield and is listed as favourite at 2.60.That's too short.I don't think there is much to chose between him,Mouro and Mutual Trust.I'll take a chance on Mutual Trust at the 6.50 on offer against my rating of 5.0.He's a G1 winner in France and showed definite signs of a return to form in the G1 Toorak last time.Critically he'll be up front and the other two main hopes will be giving him a start
Advised Bet: Mutual Trust 1 unit at 5.50 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365/6.0 elsewhere
There are a couple of possibilities at Hamilton and Sale if markets open up a bit so if I'm backing anything else I'll send details via Twitter
Friday 25 October 2013
Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley & Rosehill
Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley and a Dead 4 is posted.There is a possibility of showers during the afternoon but no more than 1mm is expected if they do arrive so doubt they are going to change things much.May get to a Good 3 if the rain stays away.Rosehill is a Good 3 and a dry day is expected.
I'm having a torrid month and struggling for winners.I think the racing is tough today generally and apart from the Cox Plate which I looked at on Thursday there is no stand out selection in any of the races.I'll be playing mostly on the "lay" side of the exchange today but there is a possibility of a bet in the last race at Rosehill.If I'm playing I'll send the details via Twitter
There are definite possibilities tomorrow though and I'll post a blog tomorrow looking at the Sale Cup meeting.
I'm having a torrid month and struggling for winners.I think the racing is tough today generally and apart from the Cox Plate which I looked at on Thursday there is no stand out selection in any of the races.I'll be playing mostly on the "lay" side of the exchange today but there is a possibility of a bet in the last race at Rosehill.If I'm playing I'll send the details via Twitter
There are definite possibilities tomorrow though and I'll post a blog tomorrow looking at the Sale Cup meeting.
Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley & Canterbury
Manikato Stakes night at Moonee Valley and the track is a Dead 4.Canterbury races also and it's a Good 3.
Samaready was dominant when winning the Moir stakes here four weeks ago.If she reproduces that form she'll be winning again here but at 2.25 she's about the right price.
No bets likely at Canterbury which has a few too many of those dreadful "No Metro Wins"races.
At the Valley there are a couple of interesting races from a betting point of view but at this stage I'm not committed.If I'm playing I'll send the details via Twitter
Samaready was dominant when winning the Moir stakes here four weeks ago.If she reproduces that form she'll be winning again here but at 2.25 she's about the right price.
No bets likely at Canterbury which has a few too many of those dreadful "No Metro Wins"races.
At the Valley there are a couple of interesting races from a betting point of view but at this stage I'm not committed.If I'm playing I'll send the details via Twitter
Thursday 24 October 2013
Cox Plate Preview
Tomorrow's Cox Plate at Moonee Valley is likely to be run on ground no worse than Dead if the current weather predictions are correct.The race has lost some of it's lustre with the scratching earlier this week of the stellar mare Atlantic Jewel due to injury.Instead of two world class horses taking part tomorrow we are left with just the one.
It's A Dundell stands out amongst this field.His demolition jobs in the Rosehill Guineas and The ATC Derby last Autumn marked him out as a colt of very high standing.This Spring he has already claimed the scalp of Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood stakes.He has had a setback with a foot issue but his trainer seems sure he's fit and ready to fire tomorrow.Gate 13 looks no positive initially but the majority of this field race back and McDonald should have no difficulty gliding over to race on pace or at worst just behind it.There are some very nice horses in opposition tomorrow,Puissance De Lune,Fiorente,Green Moon,Happy Trails,Foreteller,Super Cool and Long John are the other main players but they all fall a fair bit behind what It's A Dundeel is capable of if he can run to his best.
I expect him to get the run of the race and win and current quotes of around 4.20/4.25 are substantial "overs" according to my figures.I have him rated at 2.80 absolute max.Would be shorter but for the foot issue that held up his preperation.
Advised Bet: It's A Dundeel 1.80 units at 3.0 or better-take the current quote for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.I think the closer we get to post time the shorter this horse will be
It's A Dundell stands out amongst this field.His demolition jobs in the Rosehill Guineas and The ATC Derby last Autumn marked him out as a colt of very high standing.This Spring he has already claimed the scalp of Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood stakes.He has had a setback with a foot issue but his trainer seems sure he's fit and ready to fire tomorrow.Gate 13 looks no positive initially but the majority of this field race back and McDonald should have no difficulty gliding over to race on pace or at worst just behind it.There are some very nice horses in opposition tomorrow,Puissance De Lune,Fiorente,Green Moon,Happy Trails,Foreteller,Super Cool and Long John are the other main players but they all fall a fair bit behind what It's A Dundeel is capable of if he can run to his best.
I expect him to get the run of the race and win and current quotes of around 4.20/4.25 are substantial "overs" according to my figures.I have him rated at 2.80 absolute max.Would be shorter but for the foot issue that held up his preperation.
Advised Bet: It's A Dundeel 1.80 units at 3.0 or better-take the current quote for 50% of the stake and monitor with the balance.I think the closer we get to post time the shorter this horse will be
Tuesday 22 October 2013
Geelong Cup Day
Heavy 9 for Geelong Cup and the rain has decimated the field sizes with a huge number of non runners.Kensington up in Sydney is a Good 3.
I'm not backing anything at Geelong today at this stage.I "tweeted" through yesterday that Forgotten Voice was a "lay" at around 2.60 in the Geelong Cup.I managed to get a decent four figure sum matched around 2.56 yesterday into 2.33 after Tandy's scratching.He's currently 2.80 on Befair and will continue to blow out beyond 3.0 I'm sure.Forgotten Voice is a good horse but he's only ever won on good ground.Anyone who thinks 2.70 is a fair price about a nine year old gelding who's come half way round the world and carries top weight on ground it hates needs to have a good look at themselves.I'll be trading out so I don't lose on the race but seriously this horse is a 4.50 chance.May win but terrible price if your betting,tasty if your laying.
There a possibility of a bet in races 6 and 7 at Kensington.I'll tweet details through if I'm playing
I'm not backing anything at Geelong today at this stage.I "tweeted" through yesterday that Forgotten Voice was a "lay" at around 2.60 in the Geelong Cup.I managed to get a decent four figure sum matched around 2.56 yesterday into 2.33 after Tandy's scratching.He's currently 2.80 on Befair and will continue to blow out beyond 3.0 I'm sure.Forgotten Voice is a good horse but he's only ever won on good ground.Anyone who thinks 2.70 is a fair price about a nine year old gelding who's come half way round the world and carries top weight on ground it hates needs to have a good look at themselves.I'll be trading out so I don't lose on the race but seriously this horse is a 4.50 chance.May win but terrible price if your betting,tasty if your laying.
There a possibility of a bet in races 6 and 7 at Kensington.I'll tweet details through if I'm playing
Sunday 20 October 2013
Weekly Round Up
Zonza's win on Wednesday saved the blog from a wipe out last week.Every other horse backed failed to reach a place!Not the kind of form you want to find yourself in right in the middle of the Spring Carnival.There were three other possibles on the short list at Caulfield on Saturday and it was marginal passing on all three.All three won.Over in the UK at Ascot on Saturday I was borderline with both Olympic Glory and Farhh so it was painful to see both win unbacked.During the course of a punting year I would say that on average you get around four heavy days (Saturdays or major midweek days) when nothing at all works for you and all works against you.You also get those that are the opposite and you can do no wrong.The bad day's are tough but inevitable and you have to stay confident and know that one good day easily repairs the damage of a poor one. Just like you can get clusters of winners so you can with the losers.
Anyway, that week is over and there is some real work to do now to get the figures into the black this month.As always I'll be doing my best.Meanwhile here's the break down for last week:
UK
Blog No bets advised
Tweets One bet advised -lost
Total Loss 0.55 units
UK total LOSS 0.55 units
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 7 races-1 winner
Stakes 9.80
Returns 6.77
Loss 3.03
Tweets Bets advised in 1 race-lost
Stakes 0.65
Loss 0.65
Australia total LOSS 3.68 units
Overall for week LOSS 4.23 units
Anyway, that week is over and there is some real work to do now to get the figures into the black this month.As always I'll be doing my best.Meanwhile here's the break down for last week:
UK
Blog No bets advised
Tweets One bet advised -lost
Total Loss 0.55 units
UK total LOSS 0.55 units
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 7 races-1 winner
Stakes 9.80
Returns 6.77
Loss 3.03
Tweets Bets advised in 1 race-lost
Stakes 0.65
Loss 0.65
Australia total LOSS 3.68 units
Overall for week LOSS 4.23 units
Saturday 19 October 2013
Champions Day At Ascot
Fantastic card at ascot today for the third renewal of their Champions Day.No Frankel this year but great racing nevertheless.I was hoping for Good ground but those hopes faded as the week wore on and it's officially Soft this morning.How soft it is will affect what I do here today so there are no early advised bets and anything today will be sent via Twitter.There will not be bets in the first race with Estimate being hard to beat but little value at 3.0.There are possibilities in the other races but I'm not yet committed.
Friday 18 October 2013
Caulfield Cup Day
Caulfield Cup day marks the start of three weeks of full on action in Victoria.Apart from the top class racing at the metropolitan tracks there are the hugely competitive provincial cup's meetings at Seymour,Geelong,Sale and Bendigo.Caulfield is a Dead 4 to begin with but will upgrade to a Good 3 at some point.Randwick in Sydney today is a Good 3 and a warm day there so expect fast ground.
No bets at this stage at Randwick as markets there are very close to my figures but there may be one or two if markets move a bit.Possible interest too in the last at Bendigo and if I'm playing there or at Randwick then I'll "tweet" the details through as early as possible.
Caulfield
Race 4
Famechon did really well last time as he never found a good position and had no choice but to sit wide throughout.He should get a much better run today from a good gate and I expect him to be handy to the pace or tracking it at least.San Diego will find this track more suitable than Moonee Valley last time where he was bailed up on the rail throughout.He's a hope although you could easily argue that Bring Something's effort was the stronger out of that race.I have Famechon rated at 6.00 so happy to be with him at the 7.50 on offer
Advised Bet: Famechon 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.50 on offer now
Race 5
Avoid Lightning can sit behind a hot speed here and will be very strong late.She's already proven around this grade and strikes me as the most likely winner here.I have her at 5.00.Members Joy will be spot on today and she'll be charging home out wide.I have her at 9.00.
Advised Bets: Avoid Lightning 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.0 on offer now
Members Joy 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-12.0 available now-monitor
Race 6
I can't believe they bet 19.00 Conservatorium here earlier in the week.I missed the boat and hate taking much shorter but at 7.50 now this is still the value and I expect it to shorten further.There are negatives around the others here and this one has rock solid form.I have at 6.00
Advised Bet: Conservatorium 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.50 now
Race 8
Honorius is racing in great heart this prep and although he has to give 4kg's to the other major hopes I think he's classy enough to right in the finish.I have him 5.00 absolute maximum.Very keen he'll run a big race.
Advised Bet: Honourius: 1 unit at 5.0 or better-monitor betting here
Race 10
With Forgotten Voice failing to make the field one of the earlier advised bets is voided and there are changes to the prices posted on Thursday.Hawkspur is now rated 4.65,Royal Descent now 5.15 and Silent Achiever now 6.50.
Advised Bets: Hawkspur 1.05 units
Royal Descent 0.95 units
Silent Achiever 0.75 units
Already advised My Quest for Peace 0.15 units EW and Ethiopia 0.15 units EW
Shop around for the best deals here and keep monitoring,Ladbrokes offer Double The Odds probably only for a few bucks but look at whats on offer and get the best you can.
Good luck and have a great day.
No bets at this stage at Randwick as markets there are very close to my figures but there may be one or two if markets move a bit.Possible interest too in the last at Bendigo and if I'm playing there or at Randwick then I'll "tweet" the details through as early as possible.
Caulfield
Race 4
Famechon did really well last time as he never found a good position and had no choice but to sit wide throughout.He should get a much better run today from a good gate and I expect him to be handy to the pace or tracking it at least.San Diego will find this track more suitable than Moonee Valley last time where he was bailed up on the rail throughout.He's a hope although you could easily argue that Bring Something's effort was the stronger out of that race.I have Famechon rated at 6.00 so happy to be with him at the 7.50 on offer
Advised Bet: Famechon 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.50 on offer now
Race 5
Avoid Lightning can sit behind a hot speed here and will be very strong late.She's already proven around this grade and strikes me as the most likely winner here.I have her at 5.00.Members Joy will be spot on today and she'll be charging home out wide.I have her at 9.00.
Advised Bets: Avoid Lightning 1 unit at 5.20 or better-take the 6.0 on offer now
Members Joy 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-12.0 available now-monitor
Race 6
I can't believe they bet 19.00 Conservatorium here earlier in the week.I missed the boat and hate taking much shorter but at 7.50 now this is still the value and I expect it to shorten further.There are negatives around the others here and this one has rock solid form.I have at 6.00
Advised Bet: Conservatorium 0.85 units at 6.20 or better-take the 7.50 now
Race 8
Honorius is racing in great heart this prep and although he has to give 4kg's to the other major hopes I think he's classy enough to right in the finish.I have him 5.00 absolute maximum.Very keen he'll run a big race.
Advised Bet: Honourius: 1 unit at 5.0 or better-monitor betting here
Race 10
With Forgotten Voice failing to make the field one of the earlier advised bets is voided and there are changes to the prices posted on Thursday.Hawkspur is now rated 4.65,Royal Descent now 5.15 and Silent Achiever now 6.50.
Advised Bets: Hawkspur 1.05 units
Royal Descent 0.95 units
Silent Achiever 0.75 units
Already advised My Quest for Peace 0.15 units EW and Ethiopia 0.15 units EW
Shop around for the best deals here and keep monitoring,Ladbrokes offer Double The Odds probably only for a few bucks but look at whats on offer and get the best you can.
Good luck and have a great day.
Thursday 17 October 2013
Caulfield Cup Amendment
Those of you who follow regularly will know that I always try to be very thorough but unfortunately I've cocked up the Caulfield Cup listings and I am very grateful to TK @ Timmyk23 on twitter for highlighting it quickly.
Forgotten Voice is not a starter in the Cup as of now but is first emergency.
Everyone screws up sometimes and I apologise.
I'm happy with the prices I've done though and I know TK though my rating of Dandino wrong.He's a horse I've always liked and he's been a real warrior but I think he'll find it tough here and I think his current quotes around 10.0 are far too short
Forgotten Voice is not a starter in the Cup as of now but is first emergency.
Everyone screws up sometimes and I apologise.
I'm happy with the prices I've done though and I know TK though my rating of Dandino wrong.He's a horse I've always liked and he's been a real warrior but I think he'll find it tough here and I think his current quotes around 10.0 are far too short
Caulfield Cup Rated Prices & Comments
With the weather forecast looking good and no rain of any consequence on the horizon it seems safe to go ahead and put these prices up.It is Melbourne though remember and if the weather does turn then I will be making changes to these.These prices are based on a Good 3 track which if no rain arrives is what we will have come late Saturday afternoon.
Hawkspur 5.00
Royal Decent 5.50
Silent Achiever 7.00
Fawkner 13.0
Forgotten Voice 15.0
Ethiopia 21.00
Jet Away 21.00
My Quest For Pce.21.00
Dandino 26.00
Glencaddam G. 51.00
Julienas 51.00
Mr.Moet 66.00
Manighar 66.00
Kelinni 66.00
Moriarty 66.00
Waldpark 81.00
Mister O'Ceirin 101.00
Sneak a Peek 101.00
Dear Demi 101.00
Tuscan Fire 151.00
Oasis Bloom 151.00
Sneak a Peek and Oasis Bloom are both reserves and require horses above them to drop out to gain a start.
I would have Hawkspur shorter here were it not for the awkward gate which does have the potential to make things difficult although he normally does settle back anyway.I'm confident that Hawkspur.Royal Decent and Silent Achiever stand out as the three major hopes and my figures make it 1.90 about one of the three coming out on top.If your looking for value outside these three then My Quest for Peace, Ethiopia and the UK raider Forgotten Voice look good value.Don't be put off Forgotten Voice because he is also a Hurdler.He's twice won ultra competitive high grade handicaps at Royal Ascot.He also has an outstanding trainer,a world class jockey and he should get a sweet run from a good gate.
There is no point rushing in to back anything that's short yet.Bookies will be offering specials galore on this and prices will generally get better closer to post time.My Quest For Peace and Forgotten Voice have both trimmed up this afternoon though so I doubt they will get much better.
Advised Bets: My Quest for Peace 0.15 units EW at 34.0 with Sportsbet/IAS
Forgotten Voice 0.15 units EW at 41.0 with Sportsbet/IAS
Ethiopia 0.15 units EW at 41.0 with Ladbrokes,Luxbet,Bet 365
I'll have a look at a strategy for the others later.
Back tomorrow
Hawkspur 5.00
Royal Decent 5.50
Silent Achiever 7.00
Fawkner 13.0
Forgotten Voice 15.0
Ethiopia 21.00
Jet Away 21.00
My Quest For Pce.21.00
Dandino 26.00
Glencaddam G. 51.00
Julienas 51.00
Mr.Moet 66.00
Manighar 66.00
Kelinni 66.00
Moriarty 66.00
Waldpark 81.00
Mister O'Ceirin 101.00
Sneak a Peek 101.00
Dear Demi 101.00
Tuscan Fire 151.00
Oasis Bloom 151.00
Sneak a Peek and Oasis Bloom are both reserves and require horses above them to drop out to gain a start.
I would have Hawkspur shorter here were it not for the awkward gate which does have the potential to make things difficult although he normally does settle back anyway.I'm confident that Hawkspur.Royal Decent and Silent Achiever stand out as the three major hopes and my figures make it 1.90 about one of the three coming out on top.If your looking for value outside these three then My Quest for Peace, Ethiopia and the UK raider Forgotten Voice look good value.Don't be put off Forgotten Voice because he is also a Hurdler.He's twice won ultra competitive high grade handicaps at Royal Ascot.He also has an outstanding trainer,a world class jockey and he should get a sweet run from a good gate.
There is no point rushing in to back anything that's short yet.Bookies will be offering specials galore on this and prices will generally get better closer to post time.My Quest For Peace and Forgotten Voice have both trimmed up this afternoon though so I doubt they will get much better.
Advised Bets: My Quest for Peace 0.15 units EW at 34.0 with Sportsbet/IAS
Forgotten Voice 0.15 units EW at 41.0 with Sportsbet/IAS
Ethiopia 0.15 units EW at 41.0 with Ladbrokes,Luxbet,Bet 365
I'll have a look at a strategy for the others later.
Back tomorrow
Tuesday 15 October 2013
1000 Guineas Day at Caulfield and Warwick Farm
1000 Guineas day at Caulfield and the track is rated a Dead 4 but it's warm and very windy so that will soon upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is dry and warm and is a Good 3.How big a factor the wind is at Caulfield and whether it suits leaders or closers is going to be interesting.
There are no early bets at Warwick Farm and I can't say I'm too fussed about backing anything there today.If markets change and do get involved I'll send details via Twitter.
Caulfield
Race 1
This is a pin job.Nothing surprises here.
Race 2
I have Junoob on top here but thought the early quotes around 4.0 were about right.3.30 now looks skinny.Thought Corregio was too short too.Mr Jazz has a hope is he can run the trip but it's too big an "if" to have me interested in him.Not backing anything here.
Race 3
Pace is a questionable here.Specter was terrific on his reappearance run.He's entitled to be favourite and draws well to be handy.Misty Eyes looks well treated on a mark of 78.When he won in Adelaide in May he gave Lady Dynamo 1.5kg's and beat her 0.5 length.She's an 85 rater now so he's nicely treated.I sent him through as an early bet on Twitter this morning.Hopefully he can be handier from a decent gateMay decide to back or save on Specter too here-will advise later
Advised Bet: Misty Eyes 0.85 units at 6.50 or better.7.50 with Sportingbet/Centrebet looks good value.Centrebet have a money back deal if you are beaten by the fav.May be more here via Twitter later.
Race 4
Rhythm To Spare was awful last time.If he finds his form again he's a live chance but he does have an awkward gate.Hosting is an improving horse and he's on top here.Gate 3 looks decent at first but I am worried about him getting bailed up on the rail.I've got him at 4.0 here so 4.60 Bet 365 looks tempting as I doubt he'll get much bigger.I haven't had a bet yet-could only back Hosting but but haven't committed yet.
Race 5
Electric Fusion is the obvious and sat around 5.50 most of the morning but has now been backed into 5.0 (still 5.25 with Bet 365).I'm bemused why they have taken the blinkers off him today.He settled well last time and did everything right.This yard has me foxed on plenty off occasions and is very tricky to read-confused!Ominous pulled like crazy on his Aussie debut and he'll be a good stayer if he learns to settle-gets a noseroll to help him today.
Race 6
Guelph is hard to oppose and also hard to back at 1.40.Gregers and May's dream the obvious alternatives.Not betting here
Race 7
Zonza seems a stand out to me.Her run behind Moriarty in Sydney last May looks outstanding form here.She's won her comeback race in N.Z. She goes forward and probably gets to control this race.I have her 3.0 max here but she is 4.40 and bigger the totes so I'm worried there is a negative that I am unaware of.I've had something at 4.40 and will monitor the betting here
Advised Bet: Zonza 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 4.40 for 30% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the rest
Race 8
Good sprint to finish but I can't really find an angle in here.Betting looks fairly accurate.Not betting here
There are no early bets at Warwick Farm and I can't say I'm too fussed about backing anything there today.If markets change and do get involved I'll send details via Twitter.
Caulfield
Race 1
This is a pin job.Nothing surprises here.
Race 2
I have Junoob on top here but thought the early quotes around 4.0 were about right.3.30 now looks skinny.Thought Corregio was too short too.Mr Jazz has a hope is he can run the trip but it's too big an "if" to have me interested in him.Not backing anything here.
Race 3
Pace is a questionable here.Specter was terrific on his reappearance run.He's entitled to be favourite and draws well to be handy.Misty Eyes looks well treated on a mark of 78.When he won in Adelaide in May he gave Lady Dynamo 1.5kg's and beat her 0.5 length.She's an 85 rater now so he's nicely treated.I sent him through as an early bet on Twitter this morning.Hopefully he can be handier from a decent gateMay decide to back or save on Specter too here-will advise later
Advised Bet: Misty Eyes 0.85 units at 6.50 or better.7.50 with Sportingbet/Centrebet looks good value.Centrebet have a money back deal if you are beaten by the fav.May be more here via Twitter later.
Race 4
Rhythm To Spare was awful last time.If he finds his form again he's a live chance but he does have an awkward gate.Hosting is an improving horse and he's on top here.Gate 3 looks decent at first but I am worried about him getting bailed up on the rail.I've got him at 4.0 here so 4.60 Bet 365 looks tempting as I doubt he'll get much bigger.I haven't had a bet yet-could only back Hosting but but haven't committed yet.
Race 5
Electric Fusion is the obvious and sat around 5.50 most of the morning but has now been backed into 5.0 (still 5.25 with Bet 365).I'm bemused why they have taken the blinkers off him today.He settled well last time and did everything right.This yard has me foxed on plenty off occasions and is very tricky to read-confused!Ominous pulled like crazy on his Aussie debut and he'll be a good stayer if he learns to settle-gets a noseroll to help him today.
Race 6
Guelph is hard to oppose and also hard to back at 1.40.Gregers and May's dream the obvious alternatives.Not betting here
Race 7
Zonza seems a stand out to me.Her run behind Moriarty in Sydney last May looks outstanding form here.She's won her comeback race in N.Z. She goes forward and probably gets to control this race.I have her 3.0 max here but she is 4.40 and bigger the totes so I'm worried there is a negative that I am unaware of.I've had something at 4.40 and will monitor the betting here
Advised Bet: Zonza 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 4.40 for 30% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the rest
Race 8
Good sprint to finish but I can't really find an angle in here.Betting looks fairly accurate.Not betting here
Monday 14 October 2013
Weekly Round Up
Not a terrible week but a losing one nevertheless.
Here's the breakdown for the week;
UK
Blog Bets advised in 1 race - No winners
Stakes 1.60
Loss 1.60 units
Tweets None last week
UK LOSS on week 1.60 units
Australia
Blog bets advised in 4 races -No winners
Stakes 5.0
returns Nil
Loss 5.0 units
Tweets bets advised in 7 races-2 winners
Stakes 7.50
Returns 12.0
Profit 4.50 units
Australia LOSS on week 0.50 units
Overall total for the week LOSS 2.40 units
Very erratic so far this month at around the halfway stage and a bit of work to do to drag the month back into the black.
I tweeted a small bet through this morning (lost) and that's not in these figures but will be included in next weeks round up.
Big week coming up with Caulfield tomorrow (1000 Guineas day) and Saturday (Caulfield Cup day) plus Champions Day at Ascot in the UK.
Back Tomorrow
Here's the breakdown for the week;
UK
Blog Bets advised in 1 race - No winners
Stakes 1.60
Loss 1.60 units
Tweets None last week
UK LOSS on week 1.60 units
Australia
Blog bets advised in 4 races -No winners
Stakes 5.0
returns Nil
Loss 5.0 units
Tweets bets advised in 7 races-2 winners
Stakes 7.50
Returns 12.0
Profit 4.50 units
Australia LOSS on week 0.50 units
Overall total for the week LOSS 2.40 units
Very erratic so far this month at around the halfway stage and a bit of work to do to drag the month back into the black.
I tweeted a small bet through this morning (lost) and that's not in these figures but will be included in next weeks round up.
Big week coming up with Caulfield tomorrow (1000 Guineas day) and Saturday (Caulfield Cup day) plus Champions Day at Ascot in the UK.
Back Tomorrow
Saturday 12 October 2013
Cranbourne Cup Day
Cranbourne Cup day and a really good day's racing.Posted Good 3 but plenty of rain on the radar so unsure exactly what ground we'll be dealing with.There will definitely be plenty of plays today but whether they are bets or lays will depend on the state of the ground and how these markets open up.
Some of these provincial markets have been erratic to say least since Betfair stopped the trading restrictions on Victorian racing at the start of July.Lots of market manipulation,spoofing and some head scratching plays.Providing you step back from it and stay objective there are really good opportunities but you do have to get into the market steadily and manage your exposure.The big UK bookies control the Aussie market now and who knows who is compressing the Betfair price on many of these favourites.
I'll be sending "Tweets" if I'm backing any thing and I'll try and get them out as early as possible but these provincial markets don't really get firing until the last 5/10 mins so they may be a little closer to jump time than is usually the case
Some of these provincial markets have been erratic to say least since Betfair stopped the trading restrictions on Victorian racing at the start of July.Lots of market manipulation,spoofing and some head scratching plays.Providing you step back from it and stay objective there are really good opportunities but you do have to get into the market steadily and manage your exposure.The big UK bookies control the Aussie market now and who knows who is compressing the Betfair price on many of these favourites.
I'll be sending "Tweets" if I'm backing any thing and I'll try and get them out as early as possible but these provincial markets don't really get firing until the last 5/10 mins so they may be a little closer to jump time than is usually the case
Cesarewitch,Dewhurst,Middle Park at Newmarket plus York
Future Champions Day at Newmarket with the Cesarewitch the only handicap on an excellent day.Good competitive card at York too.Overnight rain has complicated things at Newmarket and it's now Good to Soft.York is Good with Good to Soft patches.
At the moment I am only betting in the Cesarewitch.
There are other possibilities today and further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Newmarket
Race 4
34 runners over 18 furlongs so it's a challenging race but I quite hopeful here taking 3 against the field.Pallasator looks like he's been aimed at this and he's a massive horse who still has plenty more to offer.Domination continues to improve both on the flat and over hurdles.He won the Cesarewitch trial a year ago of a mark of 77 but has improved a lot since then and even off 95 is a serious hope here.Brockwell has run well this season without winning including a solid effort in the trial race 3 weeks ago after a few weeks off.
Advised Bets: Pallasator 0.70 units at 7.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Domination 0.55 units at 9.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Brockwell 0.35 units at 16.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
At the moment I am only betting in the Cesarewitch.
There are other possibilities today and further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Newmarket
Race 4
34 runners over 18 furlongs so it's a challenging race but I quite hopeful here taking 3 against the field.Pallasator looks like he's been aimed at this and he's a massive horse who still has plenty more to offer.Domination continues to improve both on the flat and over hurdles.He won the Cesarewitch trial a year ago of a mark of 77 but has improved a lot since then and even off 95 is a serious hope here.Brockwell has run well this season without winning including a solid effort in the trial race 3 weeks ago after a few weeks off.
Advised Bets: Pallasator 0.70 units at 7.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Domination 0.55 units at 9.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Brockwell 0.35 units at 16.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Friday 11 October 2013
Guineas at Caulfield and Spring Champion at Randwick
I was sick yesterday so apologies for no blog.I'm short of time so just the bets today.
Fine and sunny at both Caulfield (Dead 4-maybe an upgrade) and Randwick ( Good 3-only gets quicker).
There are more possibilities later as markets open up and I had a look at track patterns (if any!).For now here are the definite bets
Caulfield
Race 4 Possible bet on Kuroshio but will confirm via Twitter later
Race 5
Advised Bet; Shamal Wind 1.90 units at 2.80 or better-3.10 is best now and is ok but may trade around 3.30 on Betfair at some point
Race 7 Possible bet on It Is Written but will confirm via twitter later
Race 9
Advised Bet; Mouro 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 10 Possible Bet on Long John but will confirm later via Twitter
Randwick
Race 1
Advised Bet: Entirely Platinum 0.75 at 7.0 or better-take the 10.0 on offer now for 505 of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Other possibilities at Randwick will be sent via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
Fine and sunny at both Caulfield (Dead 4-maybe an upgrade) and Randwick ( Good 3-only gets quicker).
There are more possibilities later as markets open up and I had a look at track patterns (if any!).For now here are the definite bets
Caulfield
Race 4 Possible bet on Kuroshio but will confirm via Twitter later
Race 5
Advised Bet; Shamal Wind 1.90 units at 2.80 or better-3.10 is best now and is ok but may trade around 3.30 on Betfair at some point
Race 7 Possible bet on It Is Written but will confirm via twitter later
Race 9
Advised Bet; Mouro 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 10 Possible Bet on Long John but will confirm later via Twitter
Randwick
Race 1
Advised Bet: Entirely Platinum 0.75 at 7.0 or better-take the 10.0 on offer now for 505 of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Other possibilities at Randwick will be sent via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
Wednesday 9 October 2013
Ballarat Today
These Thursday fixtures at Ballarat can be a bit hit and miss.I believe the track is closing down after the Ballarat cup meeting so they can do some remedial work on it.It would be good if they could begin using the "outer" track when the work is finished.They only seem to use the "inner" track nowadays which is tighter and nothing like as big..Anyway some of the meetings they have had there over the last couple of years have been utterly dreadful.The midweek meeting held there last week (on a Wednesday) was absolute rubbish and run on a glue pot surface.
The harsh reality is that there are far too many racecourses,racehorses,trainers etc.The whole thing need rationalising and updating.I have no idea why we have to race 7 days a week in Victoria and NSW.Surely the Trots and the Dogs could have center stage a couple of days a week.Alternatively different states could have there prime midweek day on different days of the week.
Today's meeting is actually OK.There are some interesting maidens and the handicaps are reasonably easy to get a handle on.
I'm struggling so far this month so I need to lift my game a bit.I'm interested in two today at this stage and a couple more if markets lean too heavily towards the obvious favourites and create value elsewhere.At the moment markets are at 135% or more so there no point in going in there early.Races 1 and 6 are likely bets though so if your intested look out for "tweets 10/15 mins before jump time
The harsh reality is that there are far too many racecourses,racehorses,trainers etc.The whole thing need rationalising and updating.I have no idea why we have to race 7 days a week in Victoria and NSW.Surely the Trots and the Dogs could have center stage a couple of days a week.Alternatively different states could have there prime midweek day on different days of the week.
Today's meeting is actually OK.There are some interesting maidens and the handicaps are reasonably easy to get a handle on.
I'm struggling so far this month so I need to lift my game a bit.I'm interested in two today at this stage and a couple more if markets lean too heavily towards the obvious favourites and create value elsewhere.At the moment markets are at 135% or more so there no point in going in there early.Races 1 and 6 are likely bets though so if your intested look out for "tweets 10/15 mins before jump time
Tuesday 8 October 2013
Mornigton & Warwick Farm Today
Midweek metro meeting at Mornington and Warwick Farm.Both are now a Good 3 and warm dry conditions at both venues.
Tricky day to find ones I want to back in morning markets but there is one I've backed early
Mornigton
Race 6
I thought that this chiefly concerned Heyday and Perfect Offering.Heyday is promising and she did well to finish as close as she did last time after being knocked sideways approaching the turn after being stuck in traffic most of the run.I have her favourite here at 3.0 and they bet 4.40 earlier but Sportingbet/Centrebet are still 3.90 which is still good value on my figures.Perfect Offering has strong form for a race like this but so far she's had 15 goes and only won her maiden.The market has her favourite at 3.0 out from 2.60 but I'd much rather be with the lightly raced and progressive Heyday.
Advised Bet: Heyday 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.90 now
There are possibilities if markets change and if I'm backing anything else I'll send via Twitter a few minutes before jump time
Tricky day to find ones I want to back in morning markets but there is one I've backed early
Mornigton
Race 6
I thought that this chiefly concerned Heyday and Perfect Offering.Heyday is promising and she did well to finish as close as she did last time after being knocked sideways approaching the turn after being stuck in traffic most of the run.I have her favourite here at 3.0 and they bet 4.40 earlier but Sportingbet/Centrebet are still 3.90 which is still good value on my figures.Perfect Offering has strong form for a race like this but so far she's had 15 goes and only won her maiden.The market has her favourite at 3.0 out from 2.60 but I'd much rather be with the lightly raced and progressive Heyday.
Advised Bet: Heyday 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.90 now
There are possibilities if markets change and if I'm backing anything else I'll send via Twitter a few minutes before jump time
Monday 7 October 2013
Weekly Round Up
Treve's win in yesterday's 'Arc in Paris was as stunning a performance as I can remember in that race since Dancing Brave's breathtaking win back in 1986.She didn't settle in the early stages of the race and had to travel wide throughout but from the moment she cruised up on the home turn it was simply a question of by how far she would win.
Punting wise it's been a tough week despite getting 40.0 plus odds on Happy Trails in the Turnbull last Saturday which was the only bright spot in a frustrating an annoying week.The blog in total finished 4.8 units down on the week.The drought in winners over in the UK continues although there weren't many bets last week.
I had one of those nightmare Betfair cock ups on Tuesday when the trading software froze and I was left with a four figure liability in a 4 runner -58 grade race at Kilmore.I have strict rules about not leaving myself exposed late but somehow let my guard down this time and of course got caned.It's happened before but not for a very long time and I was murderous with myself afterwards.
Hoping and expecting a better week ahead.
Punting wise it's been a tough week despite getting 40.0 plus odds on Happy Trails in the Turnbull last Saturday which was the only bright spot in a frustrating an annoying week.The blog in total finished 4.8 units down on the week.The drought in winners over in the UK continues although there weren't many bets last week.
I had one of those nightmare Betfair cock ups on Tuesday when the trading software froze and I was left with a four figure liability in a 4 runner -58 grade race at Kilmore.I have strict rules about not leaving myself exposed late but somehow let my guard down this time and of course got caned.It's happened before but not for a very long time and I was murderous with myself afterwards.
Hoping and expecting a better week ahead.
Sunday 6 October 2013
Swan Hill and Kensington Today
After a full on weekend we now public holiday racing at Kensington and a standard country meeting at Swan Hill.I've fallen a bit behind due to the heavy schedule and I haven't finished the form for today's meetings yet.There are definite possibilities but if you are interested in them you will have to monitor Twitter.If I'm playing I'll get them out at least 10/15 mins. before jump time.
'Arc Day at Longchamp
Soft ground at Longchamp for French racing's showpiece.
The fields at Longchamp three weeks ago for the 'Arc trials were the strongest I can remember so it's disappointing to report that today's big day seems a bit less strong overall than is usual.The 'Arc is a very good renewal though and the best field assembled for any race run so far this year worldwide.
Not many races today that I really want to have a bet in.The 2-y-o races look very open and it's not easy lining the form up.The 'Abbaye looks far too complex and the 'Opera looks a very tricky F&M's event.The Foret looks Moonlight Cloud's race but she'll be around 1.50/1.60 in Paris and the 1.83 on offer with the bookies looks to big but I don't want to back at odds on.I may back Tac De Boistron in the Cadran.He bolted in last time and he still could have a bit more improvement in him.His half brother is a 3 mile chaser so hopefully he can stay the trip.If I'm backing him I'll send a message via Twitter.So at this stage only one bet
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe
Two runners stand out from the rest the Japanese Orfevre and the French filly Treve.I've tried to be as objective as possible with Orfevre and have played the devil's advocate in finding all the reasons why he won't win but he's the most talented horse around anywhere at the moment and the good draw is the real cincher for me.Last year he was enormous getting to the front in a few bounds from a poor position and it's still hard to believe he got beat so majestically did he round them up and go clear.He's quirky but he is brilliant and wet ground is fine for him.
Treve is an outstanding filly and without Orfevre in the race I would back her to overcome the bad draw.But the fact is that he will have the position turning and she will have to outsprint him and I doubt she can.If it all goes wrong again for the Japanese runner then I think the race will be hers.
My figures are Orfevre 2.80 ,Treve 4.80.Orfevre is 3.45 with Betfair and 3.50 with Ladbrokes and that will not last.Treve is 6.0 with Ladbrokes and 5.80 with Betfair.Expect these two to be very strong on the French tote Orfevre particularly so
Advised Bet: Orfevre 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-take the 3.50 now-save on Treve 0.40 units at 5.0 or better- take the 6.0 now.
The fields at Longchamp three weeks ago for the 'Arc trials were the strongest I can remember so it's disappointing to report that today's big day seems a bit less strong overall than is usual.The 'Arc is a very good renewal though and the best field assembled for any race run so far this year worldwide.
Not many races today that I really want to have a bet in.The 2-y-o races look very open and it's not easy lining the form up.The 'Abbaye looks far too complex and the 'Opera looks a very tricky F&M's event.The Foret looks Moonlight Cloud's race but she'll be around 1.50/1.60 in Paris and the 1.83 on offer with the bookies looks to big but I don't want to back at odds on.I may back Tac De Boistron in the Cadran.He bolted in last time and he still could have a bit more improvement in him.His half brother is a 3 mile chaser so hopefully he can stay the trip.If I'm backing him I'll send a message via Twitter.So at this stage only one bet
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe
Two runners stand out from the rest the Japanese Orfevre and the French filly Treve.I've tried to be as objective as possible with Orfevre and have played the devil's advocate in finding all the reasons why he won't win but he's the most talented horse around anywhere at the moment and the good draw is the real cincher for me.Last year he was enormous getting to the front in a few bounds from a poor position and it's still hard to believe he got beat so majestically did he round them up and go clear.He's quirky but he is brilliant and wet ground is fine for him.
Treve is an outstanding filly and without Orfevre in the race I would back her to overcome the bad draw.But the fact is that he will have the position turning and she will have to outsprint him and I doubt she can.If it all goes wrong again for the Japanese runner then I think the race will be hers.
My figures are Orfevre 2.80 ,Treve 4.80.Orfevre is 3.45 with Betfair and 3.50 with Ladbrokes and that will not last.Treve is 6.0 with Ladbrokes and 5.80 with Betfair.Expect these two to be very strong on the French tote Orfevre particularly so
Advised Bet: Orfevre 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-take the 3.50 now-save on Treve 0.40 units at 5.0 or better- take the 6.0 now.
Saturday 5 October 2013
Saturday's UK and French Racing
Very good cards at Ascot (soft) ,Newmarket ( Good to Firm) Redcar (Good to Firm) and Longchamp (Soft).It's dry everywhere so the ground will quicken up a bit everywhere.
I've got a short list of possibilities today but with so much on a the moment I am taking time out for a couple of hours to have a nap.My brain's a bit fried with racing going on everywhere but it's great racing this weekend so you have to do your very best.
There is one definite bet at the moment but I'm sure there will be more and they will go out via Twitter as early as possible.
Ascot
Race 1
Doc Hay won this race last year.He has ideal conditions to follow up again this year,a likely strong pace and cut in the ground.The first time hood seemed to galvanise him back to form last time and if he gets the break here he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Doc Hay 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
I've got a short list of possibilities today but with so much on a the moment I am taking time out for a couple of hours to have a nap.My brain's a bit fried with racing going on everywhere but it's great racing this weekend so you have to do your very best.
There is one definite bet at the moment but I'm sure there will be more and they will go out via Twitter as early as possible.
Ascot
Race 1
Doc Hay won this race last year.He has ideal conditions to follow up again this year,a likely strong pace and cut in the ground.The first time hood seemed to galvanise him back to form last time and if he gets the break here he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Doc Hay 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Friday 4 October 2013
Epsom and Metropolitan at Randwick,Turnbull at Flemington
Excellent day's racing in prospect with the Epsom and the Metroploitan the two Randwick G1's and the Turnbull the G1 at Flemington.Both tracks are Dead 4 and both should be dry.Flemington will almost certainly be a Good 3 sooner than later.Rob Waterhouse was complaining on Twitter about Randwick watering last night aiming for a Dead track so you really will have to have a look at that track after the first couple of races.Good fast racing ground is what punters want not artificially produced surfaces that satisfy the "participants".Punters aren't considered participants by the NSW racing powers in case you hadn't already been aware of that.
Bookies will be betting very tight figures today so there is no need to go off early unless you are sure it's going to be a shortener.
Randwick
Race 7
I'll take the two Guy Walter trained runners Streama and Toydini against the field here. Collectively I have them rated 2.65 and both are on offer around 6.0 which coupled is 3.0 and enough of a margin to tempt me to play.Streama will be handy and she loves the Randwick mile and seems sure to figure in the finish.Toydini will be back and charging late.
Advised Bets: Streama 0.90 units at 5.50 or better-around 6.0 is ok doubt it get's much bigger
Toydini 0.90 units at 5.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Prince Cheri has just kept improving and I expect he's got a bit more to offer yet.He's a worthy favourite here and 4.60 makes plenty of appeal.I have him 3.80
Advised Bet; Prince Cheri 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-4.60 with Bet 365 (with guarantees) is OK
Flemington
Race 6
Sea Moon would win this easily if finding the best of his form.There hasn't been much sign of it on his two Aussie runs though and he's not a serious betting proposition at 2.80.Moudre and Tanby are possible alternatives but I'll take a chance on the ex Andre Fabre trained Brigantin at around 26.0.He's a better horse on fast ground so last weeks flop in the mud at Mornington is easily forgivable.If he's going to be a serious Melbourne cup hope he'll need to be going very close here today.I've got him at 12.0 so I see real value in his price
Advised Bet: Brigantin0.40 units EW at 14.0 or better-monitor betting and shop around
Race8
Most of these have Caulfield and Melbourne Cups in their sights so today is not Finals day.I don't want to be taking shorts about horses who are not going to be 100% firing until next start or later.With that in mind the ones that appeal as value are Dear Demi,Silent Achiever and Happy Trails and at the odds I'll be backing all three and hoping for a result
Advised Bets: Dear Demi 0.30 units at 15.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Silent Achiever 0.30 units at 15.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Happy Trails 0.20 units at 28.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Aeronautical has a G1 placing (beaten 0.2l) over track and distance.Sessions had the verdict over him last time but also had a much softer run.
Advised Bet: Aeronautical 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-take the 5.50 with Bet365 (with guarantees) for 50% or the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Bookies will be betting very tight figures today so there is no need to go off early unless you are sure it's going to be a shortener.
Randwick
Race 7
I'll take the two Guy Walter trained runners Streama and Toydini against the field here. Collectively I have them rated 2.65 and both are on offer around 6.0 which coupled is 3.0 and enough of a margin to tempt me to play.Streama will be handy and she loves the Randwick mile and seems sure to figure in the finish.Toydini will be back and charging late.
Advised Bets: Streama 0.90 units at 5.50 or better-around 6.0 is ok doubt it get's much bigger
Toydini 0.90 units at 5.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Prince Cheri has just kept improving and I expect he's got a bit more to offer yet.He's a worthy favourite here and 4.60 makes plenty of appeal.I have him 3.80
Advised Bet; Prince Cheri 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-4.60 with Bet 365 (with guarantees) is OK
Flemington
Race 6
Sea Moon would win this easily if finding the best of his form.There hasn't been much sign of it on his two Aussie runs though and he's not a serious betting proposition at 2.80.Moudre and Tanby are possible alternatives but I'll take a chance on the ex Andre Fabre trained Brigantin at around 26.0.He's a better horse on fast ground so last weeks flop in the mud at Mornington is easily forgivable.If he's going to be a serious Melbourne cup hope he'll need to be going very close here today.I've got him at 12.0 so I see real value in his price
Advised Bet: Brigantin0.40 units EW at 14.0 or better-monitor betting and shop around
Race8
Most of these have Caulfield and Melbourne Cups in their sights so today is not Finals day.I don't want to be taking shorts about horses who are not going to be 100% firing until next start or later.With that in mind the ones that appeal as value are Dear Demi,Silent Achiever and Happy Trails and at the odds I'll be backing all three and hoping for a result
Advised Bets: Dear Demi 0.30 units at 15.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Silent Achiever 0.30 units at 15.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Happy Trails 0.20 units at 28.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Aeronautical has a G1 placing (beaten 0.2l) over track and distance.Sessions had the verdict over him last time but also had a much softer run.
Advised Bet: Aeronautical 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-take the 5.50 with Bet365 (with guarantees) for 50% or the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Moonee Valley Tonight
Moonee Valley is now a Good 3 up from a Dead 4 and Melbourne is fine and dry so the track will only get quicker.It's not an easy card and most of the races make very limited appeal.There are however, couple at odds that I'm happy to be with.The rail is out 7 metres and that generally favours on pacers who can bag the rail.
Moonee Valley
Race 2
There are two engaged here that I have in my "blackbook" Lord Da Vinci and Duke's Delight.Lord Da Vinci ran very well on debut when favourite and just outpointed.He'll improve for the extra distance but at 2.50 he's definitely short enough.Duke's Delight ran well in a maiden at Seymour that strikes me as a race likely to throw up plenty of winners.He's big overs at around 21.0 and 7.0 the place on the totes.
Advised Bet: Dukes Delight 0.45 win units at 12.0 or better and 1.15 units a place at 4.50 or better
Monitor the betting here and shop around
Race 8
Electric Fusion is on a very attractive mark of 78 for a horse who split Hawkspur and Honorius when second in the Queensland Derby.He's had two trials but he does get back and this trip is short of his best.Xavi is a definite chance but there's no real value at around 3.50.Esprit Rossa has been a steady improver and I liked her win in a weaker race last time.It's harder here but she draws for a nice trail behind the pace here and 9.50 is on offer against my rating of 7.50.
Advised Bet: Esprit Rossa 0.65 units at 8.0 or better-take the 9.50 with Bet 365 (SP and Tote guarantees make it attractive to bet with them on city meetings although you can't get on for too much)
Moonee Valley
Race 2
There are two engaged here that I have in my "blackbook" Lord Da Vinci and Duke's Delight.Lord Da Vinci ran very well on debut when favourite and just outpointed.He'll improve for the extra distance but at 2.50 he's definitely short enough.Duke's Delight ran well in a maiden at Seymour that strikes me as a race likely to throw up plenty of winners.He's big overs at around 21.0 and 7.0 the place on the totes.
Advised Bet: Dukes Delight 0.45 win units at 12.0 or better and 1.15 units a place at 4.50 or better
Monitor the betting here and shop around
Race 8
Electric Fusion is on a very attractive mark of 78 for a horse who split Hawkspur and Honorius when second in the Queensland Derby.He's had two trials but he does get back and this trip is short of his best.Xavi is a definite chance but there's no real value at around 3.50.Esprit Rossa has been a steady improver and I liked her win in a weaker race last time.It's harder here but she draws for a nice trail behind the pace here and 9.50 is on offer against my rating of 7.50.
Advised Bet: Esprit Rossa 0.65 units at 8.0 or better-take the 9.50 with Bet 365 (SP and Tote guarantees make it attractive to bet with them on city meetings although you can't get on for too much)
Wednesday 2 October 2013
Bendigo Today
Bendigo is a Dead 4 and it's mild and dry so an upgrade may be possible.It's OK racing there today certainly better than yesterday's Ballarat card which was an absolute gluepot.
I can't give you anything from early markets but there are possibilities as the markets begins to open up.Have to rely on Twitter today and as usual I'll try to get them out at least 10 mins. or so before post time
I can't give you anything from early markets but there are possibilities as the markets begins to open up.Have to rely on Twitter today and as usual I'll try to get them out at least 10 mins. or so before post time
Tuesday 1 October 2013
Ballarat & Canterbury Today
It's a bit disappointing today for a Wednesday in Spring.Ballarat is a Heavy 9 with rain and strong winds forecast for later although the radar is clear at the moment.Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's warm and dry there.
I can't find anything I'm keen on at Canterbury and the early races at Ballarat don't appeal but I think race 7 is interesting.
Ballarat
Race 7
Handsome Tycoon ran really well on pace in a better race than this at Cranbourne last time.He was beaten less than half a length there in fourth and the winner and the fifth have won since to frank the form.The negatives are 1) yet to race on wet ground and 2) he's a 3-y-o taking on older horses although that was the case at Cranbourne last time too.He's 2.50 and that would be rock bottom on dry ground so on a Heavy 9 I think he's far too short.Caribbea started out with Mick Kent,moved to Saab Hasan and then went north to Tony Gollan in Queensland.She's back in Victoria now with the excellent and underrated Stephen Theodore.Looking through her form I'm convinced she's at her best in wet ground.She went into my "blackbook" after her last run and if anyone can squeeze the best out of her then Theodore can.7.0 with the TAB and Sportingbet looks ok against my rated price of 5.50
Advised Bet: Caribbea 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Possible bet in race 8 and if I'm playing I'll send via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
I can't find anything I'm keen on at Canterbury and the early races at Ballarat don't appeal but I think race 7 is interesting.
Ballarat
Race 7
Handsome Tycoon ran really well on pace in a better race than this at Cranbourne last time.He was beaten less than half a length there in fourth and the winner and the fifth have won since to frank the form.The negatives are 1) yet to race on wet ground and 2) he's a 3-y-o taking on older horses although that was the case at Cranbourne last time too.He's 2.50 and that would be rock bottom on dry ground so on a Heavy 9 I think he's far too short.Caribbea started out with Mick Kent,moved to Saab Hasan and then went north to Tony Gollan in Queensland.She's back in Victoria now with the excellent and underrated Stephen Theodore.Looking through her form I'm convinced she's at her best in wet ground.She went into my "blackbook" after her last run and if anyone can squeeze the best out of her then Theodore can.7.0 with the TAB and Sportingbet looks ok against my rated price of 5.50
Advised Bet: Caribbea 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Possible bet in race 8 and if I'm playing I'll send via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
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