2000 Guineas day and the ground at Newmarket is Good to Firm,Good in places.It's forecast dry and bright all day so expect fast ground.Goodwood today is Good to Soft (drying out all the time) and Thirsk is Good,Good to Firm in places (dry conditions so may be Good to Firm all over by racetime).
I'm in a strong position in the Guineas having traded Kingman in after backing him after he ran away with the Greenham and have a decent collect if he wins and a modest but OK profit if he's turned over. I thought natural attrition would see him a fair bit shorter than current quotes but around 2.25 looks about right now..He's clearly the most likely but I'm not quite as confident as I was earlier.
I've found the spluttering start to the turf flat season most frustrating and I'm relieved that things are now most definitely up and running.
I'm not really into backing at short quotes this early in the season so I'm basically looking for realistic winning hopes at figures that I'm comfortable staking to. Only one definite bet today and it falls outside my usual parameters and is based on "gut feeling"rather than figures.
Newmarket
Race 3
There's a very unexposed quality stayer here. He has to improve around a stone on figures to win this and he might want a bit further now.There's pace a plenty here so hopefully he'll get a chance to show he's much better than the figures suggest.
Advised Bet: Brass Ring 0.70 units at 7.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Any further Bets/Lays and updates sent via twitter
No comments:
Post a Comment