Melbourne Cup Rated Prices and Comments

There is a little rain around Melbourne today (Monday) and a little forecast overnight but all in all it seems likely only to amount to what the course curator would put on the track if there had been no rain at all.Expect a Dead 4 reading at 6.30am tomorrow and good fast racing ground come Cup time.
With Australian trained horses the likely leaders don't expect any mad speed and those handily placed will take some pegging back.
Here are my rated prices for the Cup based on the track being rated a good 3 come post time and the pace being only even at best

Mount Athos         6.00         Massive improver this year,easily the best handicapped horse
Dunaden                8.50         Improved again in Europe this year and brilliant at Caulfield
Mourayan              10.0          Classy,solid stayer.Maps perfectly.
Green Moon          12.0          Better suited here than in Cox Plate.Maps well
Americain             12.0         Excellent in Caulfield Cup.Will be giving a start though
Ethiopia                 15.0          Still improving,under rated.Very good in Cox Plate
Lights Of H.          15.0          Very good third Caulfield Cup.Will go forward and race handily 
Red Cadeaux         15.0          Just denied last year-may give too much start
My Quest For P.    29.00      Every chance in Caulfield Cup but may be fitter
Maluckyday          29.0         Maybe not as good as a couple of years ago
Zabeelionaire        41.0         Has more to offer perhaps
Galileo's Ch.         41.0         Doubt good enough on fast ground but Trainer commands respect
Fiorente                 51.0         Best effort was on a slow surface
Tac De Boistron    56.0        Best form on wet
Niwot                    61.0        Unplaced last year with less weight
Cavalryman          66.0         Not as good as he used to be
Kelinni                  66.0        Good Sydney stayer who won on Saturday but out of depth here 
Glencaddam G.     76.0        Well backed fav. for Caulfield Cup but limitations exposed there
Jakkalberry           101.0       Looks likely to be trapped wide or have to go back to rear
Winchester            101.0       Outside barrier means he will be out the back
Voila Ici                151.0       Doubt good enough
Sanagas                151.0      Doubt good enough
Precedence           201.0      Struggles this trip
Unusual Suspect  351.0     Not going well enough to figure

Value runners in order of preference are:-

Mount Athos        8.6 I have at 6.0
Mourayan            27.0 I have at 10.0
Green Moon        19.5 I have at 12.0
Ethiopia               25.0 I have at 15.0
Lights Of H.        20.0 I have at 15.0
Zebilionaire         55.0  I have at 41.0
Niwot                  80.0   I have at 61.0

Prices quoted are Betfair's current odds

Back tomorrow with a look at the rest of the Flemington card