Apologies for no blogs this week but I've been busy updating computers and systems and it's been one hiccup after another.All done now and just a case of getting used to it.In truth it's been very average racing this week and I've only turned over a fraction of what I would in a normal week.Today is a bit thin on value too.
The blog had a very good Spring with last Saturday's 3 winners topping things of nicely.From today we are into Summer and I'll be giving selections with prices and staking from now on.Stakes will be set assuming a 100 point bank and we'll see how long it takes to double the bank.
At Caulfield the track is posted as a Dead 4 but may upgrade although when Sam Hyland walked it he reported it having decent give and that the inside was likely to chop out as the day progresses.With that in mind I am watching how this track plays today.A couple I was possible about here have low draws so I am passing on this meeting as far as early advice is concerned.
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and with temperatures in the 30's don't expect any downgrade there even if they get a thundery shower or two.
Race 2 Office Bearer looked good winning at Moonee Valley last time and he'll be very hard to beat here.Evens is overs according to my figures (1.70) but he has had to travel up from Melbourne in the baking heat so that does make me cautious.Maybe he travelled up a few days ago.Probably pass here.
Race 4 If Moriarty can see out the 2200m trip he'll be hard to hold out here.The evidence is a tad conflicting as he looked suss at the trip on his penultimate start over 1900m then got home strongly last week over 2000m.I'll take the risk and I'll take the 2.70.
Race 8 I think there are 3 serious chances here.Disciple,Mecir and King's Dominion.I'm not overly keen on King's Dominion's attitude so that leaves us with the other 2.Disciple looked an improved horse when resuming when he was most unlucky.This is no harder and 4.6 is good shopping against my 3.70.Mecir ran well in a stronger race last week and the extra ground may help him here.he's the early favourite around 3.80 which is a tad too short for me.I think Disciple should be favourite.
Today's Bets
Warwick Farm Race 4 Moriarty 2 points win @ 2.70
Warwick Farm Race 8 Disciple 1.35 points win @ 4.60
Friday 30 November 2012
Friday 23 November 2012
Railway Stakes Day in Perth
Western Australian racing has it's premier day with the running of the Railway Stakes today.Last year it disgraced itself with the parochial decision to disqualify the first past the post Kiwi raider He's Remarkable and award the race to the local Lucky Gray.Terrible day that was for the credibility of racing in WA and hopefully some lessons have been learnt from it.
Lucky Gray is back again this year as favourite at around 4.50.With a full 5kg's more on his back this year he makes absolutely no appeal at all at those odds and I will be looking to lay him.Wall Street ran well last time in the Emirates and although gate 16 is horrible 14.0 is a generous quote and worth a small interest.
The other G1 (there not really G1's are they?) is the Winterbottom Stakes.The emerging WA sprinters Barakey and Travinator head the market at 2.60 and 4.80 respectively.Both look far too short and they may carve each other up out front.Much more appealing is Pinwheel at 9.0 whose fourth in this year's Stradbroke under 56kg's looks terrific form for this.Massive overs this one.I have him 4.50.
Earlier in the WA Guineas Academus looks hardest to beat.The 5.50 is gone now but at 4.40 there is still some cream left.I have him 3.70.He'll stalk the pace and pounce at the furlong and the other main fancies will be conceeding first run.
At Moonee Valley (expect upgrade to Good 3) today it's a tough card and we have to wait until the last for a value runner.Follonica is tough genuine and consistent.She races handy and has a good gate.The claim helps and the rider is underated.7.50 is available ( I got matched at 8.40 on Betfair for a bit) and I rate her a 5.50 chance.Stacey Lee is the one I fear most.
Better card this week in Sydney (Rosehill,Good 3) and 2 races there I like the shape of:-
Race 3 Cantonese should lead unchallenged.He's still improving and providing he isn't feeling the effects of a long tough campaign should be involved again.Soros is a big chance too and I have them both at 3.50.The 5.0 has gone about Cantonese now but he is still some value at 4.00.Soros is a little short at 2.90 in my opinion.
Race 8 I like Pentasia here back a 100m to 1100m.She leads here and will take some pegging back.She is 5.50 and I rate her 4.0.Choice Words has trialled well but she looks too short to me at 2.70.Mercir looks the other hope
Lucky Gray is back again this year as favourite at around 4.50.With a full 5kg's more on his back this year he makes absolutely no appeal at all at those odds and I will be looking to lay him.Wall Street ran well last time in the Emirates and although gate 16 is horrible 14.0 is a generous quote and worth a small interest.
The other G1 (there not really G1's are they?) is the Winterbottom Stakes.The emerging WA sprinters Barakey and Travinator head the market at 2.60 and 4.80 respectively.Both look far too short and they may carve each other up out front.Much more appealing is Pinwheel at 9.0 whose fourth in this year's Stradbroke under 56kg's looks terrific form for this.Massive overs this one.I have him 4.50.
Earlier in the WA Guineas Academus looks hardest to beat.The 5.50 is gone now but at 4.40 there is still some cream left.I have him 3.70.He'll stalk the pace and pounce at the furlong and the other main fancies will be conceeding first run.
At Moonee Valley (expect upgrade to Good 3) today it's a tough card and we have to wait until the last for a value runner.Follonica is tough genuine and consistent.She races handy and has a good gate.The claim helps and the rider is underated.7.50 is available ( I got matched at 8.40 on Betfair for a bit) and I rate her a 5.50 chance.Stacey Lee is the one I fear most.
Better card this week in Sydney (Rosehill,Good 3) and 2 races there I like the shape of:-
Race 3 Cantonese should lead unchallenged.He's still improving and providing he isn't feeling the effects of a long tough campaign should be involved again.Soros is a big chance too and I have them both at 3.50.The 5.0 has gone about Cantonese now but he is still some value at 4.00.Soros is a little short at 2.90 in my opinion.
Race 8 I like Pentasia here back a 100m to 1100m.She leads here and will take some pegging back.She is 5.50 and I rate her 4.0.Choice Words has trialled well but she looks too short to me at 2.70.Mercir looks the other hope
Wednesday 21 November 2012
Warrnambool today
Fair programme today at Warrnambool.
Posted Dead 4 but will probably upgrade to a Good 3 as the afternoon progresses.
Only one race I have a strong opinion about today.
Race 6 Very keen on Run Diego here.He was excellent at Flemington and this is easier.He is still progressive and makes plenty of appeal here from a good barrier.I rate him a rock solid 2.50 and 3.0 is available in early markets.
Posted Dead 4 but will probably upgrade to a Good 3 as the afternoon progresses.
Only one race I have a strong opinion about today.
Race 6 Very keen on Run Diego here.He was excellent at Flemington and this is easier.He is still progressive and makes plenty of appeal here from a good barrier.I rate him a rock solid 2.50 and 3.0 is available in early markets.
Tuesday 20 November 2012
Sale Today
Modest stuff today at Sale.
Early markets are up and some favourites that look way too short to me.
Race 5 I have little between Ametsis and Phantom Brew on my figures both around 4.0.Ametsis has come up around even money with bookies so I'll be looking to lay her here.Looks quite a trappy race to me.
Race 6 Hot Power is a top priced 2.20 in early markets.My ratings are Hot Power 3.60 Frantic 4.10
Now and Zen 4.60 Ivory Cross 9.0 .Favourite far too short with bookies in my opinion.
Race 7 Looks very open.My figures are 6.0 the field.Hidden Message is 3.30 with the books and Nassarius is 3.70.Both look big unders to me.
Playing on the lay side of the exchange today obviously!
Early markets are up and some favourites that look way too short to me.
Race 5 I have little between Ametsis and Phantom Brew on my figures both around 4.0.Ametsis has come up around even money with bookies so I'll be looking to lay her here.Looks quite a trappy race to me.
Race 6 Hot Power is a top priced 2.20 in early markets.My ratings are Hot Power 3.60 Frantic 4.10
Now and Zen 4.60 Ivory Cross 9.0 .Favourite far too short with bookies in my opinion.
Race 7 Looks very open.My figures are 6.0 the field.Hidden Message is 3.30 with the books and Nassarius is 3.70.Both look big unders to me.
Playing on the lay side of the exchange today obviously!
Friday 16 November 2012
Zipping Classic Day
Zipping Classic Day at Melbourne's Sandown Hillside track.Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to a Good 3.Good card but vary hard to find any value.Opportunities may develop as the day progresses but at the moment early markets look very tight and I can make no suggestions.I'll be concentrating on the "lay" side of the exchange today I expect.
Sydney racing continues to serve up unattractive programs.It's hard to enthuse about anything there today.
Sorry there is nothing today but I only suggest what I believe to be value.Today I cannot find any.
Sydney racing continues to serve up unattractive programs.It's hard to enthuse about anything there today.
Sorry there is nothing today but I only suggest what I believe to be value.Today I cannot find any.
Thursday 15 November 2012
Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight
It's been very mediocre racing so far this week but things pick up tonight.The Moonee Valley card is very good considering we are the week after Flemington.Track rated a Dead 4 but it's dry in Melbourne so a Good 3 is a distinct possibility.
Race 1 Hollywood Gothic is well up to winning one of these city maidens.He started slowly last time which is a worry round here and they may not go that hard in this.Unexposed 4-y-o's are well in weight wise in these maidens only having to give 1.5kg to the 3-y-o's.His debut run was very good for race like this and last time he dropped back to 1000m and bombed the start.He'll be flying home late. No early markets here but he's decent odds on early totes.Need around 4.0 to be interested here because of the start he will be giving.
Race 3 I missed the 2.80 about Conferre with the bookies but got a bit matched on Betfair.It's a Mares race so an element of caution needed but she is racing really well and still improving.I rate her 2.20 here
Race 6 Very keen on Tigress Joy here.She has always promised to be a good horse but there have been some issues.Has returned very well this prep and was really dominant at Ballarat last time.4.0 plus available and my rating is 3.20
Race 7 No early markets here.One or two that could improve a lot here.Fringed was very good against the older horses last time and the drop back a 100m is no negative.Will go forward here.If he's 5.0 or better I might be tempted.Office Bearer won his maiden like a good horse but the form doesn't amount to much on paper.
Race 8 Meteor Shower was run down close home here last time in a similar event.That was a PB and from gate 1 can get an easier lead here tonight.No early markets but my rating is 5.50 and I think much better than that will be available.
At Canterbury it's a very trappy card.Posted a Good 3 but rain around Sydney may see it in the Dead range.
Race 7 Favourite here is Uate at around 2.0.There is little speed in this and Uate usually get's back.He's hard to win with and is silly odds.Shanghai Bund should either lead or sit second-he's had two trials to prepare-he may ideally need further but 1250m first up is fine.I have him 4.0 but he's available at 9.0.
Race 1 Hollywood Gothic is well up to winning one of these city maidens.He started slowly last time which is a worry round here and they may not go that hard in this.Unexposed 4-y-o's are well in weight wise in these maidens only having to give 1.5kg to the 3-y-o's.His debut run was very good for race like this and last time he dropped back to 1000m and bombed the start.He'll be flying home late. No early markets here but he's decent odds on early totes.Need around 4.0 to be interested here because of the start he will be giving.
Race 3 I missed the 2.80 about Conferre with the bookies but got a bit matched on Betfair.It's a Mares race so an element of caution needed but she is racing really well and still improving.I rate her 2.20 here
Race 6 Very keen on Tigress Joy here.She has always promised to be a good horse but there have been some issues.Has returned very well this prep and was really dominant at Ballarat last time.4.0 plus available and my rating is 3.20
Race 7 No early markets here.One or two that could improve a lot here.Fringed was very good against the older horses last time and the drop back a 100m is no negative.Will go forward here.If he's 5.0 or better I might be tempted.Office Bearer won his maiden like a good horse but the form doesn't amount to much on paper.
Race 8 Meteor Shower was run down close home here last time in a similar event.That was a PB and from gate 1 can get an easier lead here tonight.No early markets but my rating is 5.50 and I think much better than that will be available.
At Canterbury it's a very trappy card.Posted a Good 3 but rain around Sydney may see it in the Dead range.
Race 7 Favourite here is Uate at around 2.0.There is little speed in this and Uate usually get's back.He's hard to win with and is silly odds.Shanghai Bund should either lead or sit second-he's had two trials to prepare-he may ideally need further but 1250m first up is fine.I have him 4.0 but he's available at 9.0.
Wednesday 14 November 2012
Racing On The Ropes
The Australian media led chiefly by Fairfax Newspapers and the ABC have the knives out for Australian Racing.With allegations of "race fixing", "smart drug use"and of star jockey Damien Oliver seemingly admitting to betting against his mount to the tune of $10,000 racing has had all the "wrong" publicity through the Spring Carnival.With the ABC running a story tonight about ex racehorses being auctioned off for slaughter and the almost certainty that there are more damning allegations waiting to be aired racing is on the ropes.
Australian Racing is awash with money but the people administering the sport spend it like a "drunken sailor".Today's AJC meeting at Hawksbury began with a 4 runner race for 2-y-o's, 3 of which were from the same stable.Prize money for this "egg and spoon" affair was $35,000.If you work in retail,hospitality or a racing stable that's about what you'd earn after tax for dragging your arse out of bed and going to work full time for a whole year.The racing fraternity may not like that comparison being highlighted but it illustrates how inflated the prize money levels have become at the expense of other areas of racing that are hopelessly neglected.
Unfortunately there is little hope of much change anytime soon with the vested interests that benefit from the status quo ensuring that all appointees to positions of power are committed to carrying on much as usual.Meanwhile, racing here will continue is slow but steady decline.
Spectacular event in Queensland this morning with a full Solar Eclipse.Palm Cove Beach where I am fortunate to live was thronged with visitors from around the globe.At daybreak there was such heavy cloud cover that the whole thing looked in danger of happening unseen but the clouds broke around 25 minutes before the full eclipse.Truly a breathtaking experience and I feel very lucky to have witnessed it.
Australian Racing is awash with money but the people administering the sport spend it like a "drunken sailor".Today's AJC meeting at Hawksbury began with a 4 runner race for 2-y-o's, 3 of which were from the same stable.Prize money for this "egg and spoon" affair was $35,000.If you work in retail,hospitality or a racing stable that's about what you'd earn after tax for dragging your arse out of bed and going to work full time for a whole year.The racing fraternity may not like that comparison being highlighted but it illustrates how inflated the prize money levels have become at the expense of other areas of racing that are hopelessly neglected.
Unfortunately there is little hope of much change anytime soon with the vested interests that benefit from the status quo ensuring that all appointees to positions of power are committed to carrying on much as usual.Meanwhile, racing here will continue is slow but steady decline.
Spectacular event in Queensland this morning with a full Solar Eclipse.Palm Cove Beach where I am fortunate to live was thronged with visitors from around the globe.At daybreak there was such heavy cloud cover that the whole thing looked in danger of happening unseen but the clouds broke around 25 minutes before the full eclipse.Truly a breathtaking experience and I feel very lucky to have witnessed it.
Friday 9 November 2012
Flemington Final Day
Final Day of Flemington's Spring Carnival and the track rating this morning is a Dead 5.Expect an upgrade to a Dead 4 at least and the possibility that we could get to a Good 3 later.
Bookies have had a bonanza carnival.They were well ahead going into Oaks Day and with only two winners on Thursday starting below 8/1 they extended their lead.
Followers of this blog also extended their lead this Spring with General Truce getting home at juicy odds (advised at 20.0,rated 9.50 and SP 17.0).
Today is very tough.Very hard to find value in the earlier races with markets looking very tight.
The Emirates (race 6) is as tight a handicap as you will ever see.Numerous hopes but nothing appeals here as a solid bet.
Patinack Farm (race 5) I favour Sea Siren and Mental here but there is no fat in the odds available so again I'll probably sit this out.
I'd like to oppose Galah at 2.5 in race 3 but I cannot make a credible case for anything else bar Morant who will be out the back in a race of little pace so no play here.
Matriarch Stakes (race 7) Silent Achiever is odds on in early markets.Dominic Beirne who does the Betfair preview for the Carnival races suggest that she is unders and is a "lay" at evens or less.I have her at 1.60.Allowing for this being a Mares race I like to see some solid overs before getting involved as they can be dodgy races betting wise.She is drifting out on Betfair this morning (now 1.92) and has come up 2.30 plus on the totes so it looks like some odds against is going to be available at some stage.At 2.0 or better I am betting very confidently here.
Queen Elizabeth Stakes (race 8) Puissance De Lune bolted up in the Bendigo Cup and is favourite here at 2.90.That is shorter than the 3.50 I rate him.Shahwardi is 5.0 and I have him at 3.50 too.Shahwardi was a comfortably winner of the G2 Herbert Power Stakes on his only Australian start.Drops to G3 here and the extra 400m is in his favour.Looks a solid bet to me.
Bookies have had a bonanza carnival.They were well ahead going into Oaks Day and with only two winners on Thursday starting below 8/1 they extended their lead.
Followers of this blog also extended their lead this Spring with General Truce getting home at juicy odds (advised at 20.0,rated 9.50 and SP 17.0).
Today is very tough.Very hard to find value in the earlier races with markets looking very tight.
The Emirates (race 6) is as tight a handicap as you will ever see.Numerous hopes but nothing appeals here as a solid bet.
Patinack Farm (race 5) I favour Sea Siren and Mental here but there is no fat in the odds available so again I'll probably sit this out.
I'd like to oppose Galah at 2.5 in race 3 but I cannot make a credible case for anything else bar Morant who will be out the back in a race of little pace so no play here.
Matriarch Stakes (race 7) Silent Achiever is odds on in early markets.Dominic Beirne who does the Betfair preview for the Carnival races suggest that she is unders and is a "lay" at evens or less.I have her at 1.60.Allowing for this being a Mares race I like to see some solid overs before getting involved as they can be dodgy races betting wise.She is drifting out on Betfair this morning (now 1.92) and has come up 2.30 plus on the totes so it looks like some odds against is going to be available at some stage.At 2.0 or better I am betting very confidently here.
Queen Elizabeth Stakes (race 8) Puissance De Lune bolted up in the Bendigo Cup and is favourite here at 2.90.That is shorter than the 3.50 I rate him.Shahwardi is 5.0 and I have him at 3.50 too.Shahwardi was a comfortably winner of the G2 Herbert Power Stakes on his only Australian start.Drops to G3 here and the extra 400m is in his favour.Looks a solid bet to me.
Wednesday 7 November 2012
Flemington Oaks Day
The Cup on Tuesday produced a handsome profit with Green Moon paying $22.50 on the Victorian TAB against my rated price of 12.0.As predicted here there was no early pace at all and those midfield or worse never had any hope.
Luca Cumani's desperate luck in this event continued with Ryan Moore failing to take full advantage of Mount Athos' good gate and position handier to the speed.He was flying home and almost certainly should have been the winner.Both horses were good results for me so no real complaints here.
Readers of this blog were also steered into Dunaden in the Caulfield Cup and Ocean Park in the Cox Plate.The Spring is going well so far so let's see if the gains can be consolidated.
Bookmaker's are still well in front after two days of the Flemington Carnival with three winners on Tuesday starting at 20.0 plus.
Oaks day today and as is the norm the "highlight" is a modest contest really.Not many Australian horses are suited to a 2500m trip early in their 3-y-o careers (or later for that matter!) so your left guessing stamina wise.
Zydeco and Dear Demi stand out clearly form wise with Zydeco the clear top pick after a slashing win on Saturday.I think she will probably run 2500m but don't want to take 2.25 to find out.I'd need 2.60 plus to be tempted and that's not looking likely so it's probably a no bet race for me.
Expect fast racing ground again despite a few showers forecast I doubt any rain that falls will enough to make much difference.Dead 4 posted this morning but expect the upgrade sooner rather than later.
It's a tricky card but there are a few that appeal as value at decent odds.
Race 2 Pelicano makes some appeal here.1800m second up looks ideal and ground perfect.Tricky gate is a concern but I rate him 6.0 and 8.50 is available although early markets are at 120% plus so shop carefully.
Race 3 Mares race so not super confident but doubt there are many that can actually win this under the weight conditions.I like Serene Star as the most likely winner.Doubt she'll be cluttered up from Gate 1 the way the straight track has raced this week but bookies may see it as a negative.I have her rated 4.50 and she is 5.80 now on Betfair which is ok but 6.0 plus may become available later maybe not.Keep monitoring the price.
Race 5 I suspect Specter has been set for this race.Wish he'd drawn a better gate but he has J. Cassidy to steer so hopefully he can find a good spot up close to the speed.Some luck needed here but expect 7.0 plus to be available against my rating of 5.50.
Race 8 Speed will be on here.General Truce is huge overs. I have him at 9.50 and there is 20.0 available on Betfair and 18.0 with the bookies.Big run last time when wide throughout at Moonee Valley and parks behind the hot speed here and has the last crack.Tough race but happy we'll get a good run here.
Race 9 Most of these would be "ideally"suited by a bit of cushion in the track including the first four in the betting although they all can win on fast ground.Flashback to a year ago and It's Prince obliged here at 40.0.Goes forward from a wide gate in a race with no obvious pace and perhaps control's the race.Loves fast ground.Speculative but 30.0 Betfair 25.0 with the books is overs.I rate him 14.0
Luca Cumani's desperate luck in this event continued with Ryan Moore failing to take full advantage of Mount Athos' good gate and position handier to the speed.He was flying home and almost certainly should have been the winner.Both horses were good results for me so no real complaints here.
Readers of this blog were also steered into Dunaden in the Caulfield Cup and Ocean Park in the Cox Plate.The Spring is going well so far so let's see if the gains can be consolidated.
Bookmaker's are still well in front after two days of the Flemington Carnival with three winners on Tuesday starting at 20.0 plus.
Oaks day today and as is the norm the "highlight" is a modest contest really.Not many Australian horses are suited to a 2500m trip early in their 3-y-o careers (or later for that matter!) so your left guessing stamina wise.
Zydeco and Dear Demi stand out clearly form wise with Zydeco the clear top pick after a slashing win on Saturday.I think she will probably run 2500m but don't want to take 2.25 to find out.I'd need 2.60 plus to be tempted and that's not looking likely so it's probably a no bet race for me.
Expect fast racing ground again despite a few showers forecast I doubt any rain that falls will enough to make much difference.Dead 4 posted this morning but expect the upgrade sooner rather than later.
It's a tricky card but there are a few that appeal as value at decent odds.
Race 2 Pelicano makes some appeal here.1800m second up looks ideal and ground perfect.Tricky gate is a concern but I rate him 6.0 and 8.50 is available although early markets are at 120% plus so shop carefully.
Race 3 Mares race so not super confident but doubt there are many that can actually win this under the weight conditions.I like Serene Star as the most likely winner.Doubt she'll be cluttered up from Gate 1 the way the straight track has raced this week but bookies may see it as a negative.I have her rated 4.50 and she is 5.80 now on Betfair which is ok but 6.0 plus may become available later maybe not.Keep monitoring the price.
Race 5 I suspect Specter has been set for this race.Wish he'd drawn a better gate but he has J. Cassidy to steer so hopefully he can find a good spot up close to the speed.Some luck needed here but expect 7.0 plus to be available against my rating of 5.50.
Race 8 Speed will be on here.General Truce is huge overs. I have him at 9.50 and there is 20.0 available on Betfair and 18.0 with the bookies.Big run last time when wide throughout at Moonee Valley and parks behind the hot speed here and has the last crack.Tough race but happy we'll get a good run here.
Race 9 Most of these would be "ideally"suited by a bit of cushion in the track including the first four in the betting although they all can win on fast ground.Flashback to a year ago and It's Prince obliged here at 40.0.Goes forward from a wide gate in a race with no obvious pace and perhaps control's the race.Loves fast ground.Speculative but 30.0 Betfair 25.0 with the books is overs.I rate him 14.0
Monday 5 November 2012
Flemington Melbourne Cup Day
Bookies clearly won round one of the Flemington Carnival with Derby day producing a couple of 40/1 winners in G 1 races.
Punter's get a sound racing surface to play on again today (currently Dead 4 but expect an early upgrade to Good 3) but are faced with a very challenging card and many races have a too hard look about them.
I dealt with the Cup last night but just to reiterate I have Mount Athos favourite at 6.00.He touched 8.8 on Betfair before I want to bed last night but no surprise to see the UK punters force him back into 7.6 overnight.Mourayan is huge overs at 32.0 I may have him too short at 10.0 but he gets a great run here and is very live hope.He was my clear top pick last year but was scratched on the morning of the race.Ethiopia is underated and clear value at 27.0 I rate him at 15.0.Green Moon is 19.50 against my 12.0 and Lights Of Heaven is 20.0 my rating is 15.0.
I have backed Magnier in race 5.I rate him 3.60 and there is still some 4.20 available.Back to the 1000m suits him here and pretty keen he'll be involved today.
Race 3 is tough but I will be having a little on Verdant.Fast ground today is a big plus for him as is the drop back to 2800m.I have him 5.0 and you'll shop much better than that closer to post time.
Race 4 is trappy mares race but Steps In Time has got out too far with 9.0 on offer against my rating of 5.50.She will need a good ride from the wide gate but has J Cassidy riding and is worth chancing at the overs.
Race 6.Angelic Light is going really well but she has a tricky gate here and is likely to be posted wide so a good ride is needed.Benenden in constrast gets an ideal gate and is improving fast.8.0 is good value against my rating of 5.50.I may save on Angelic Light if she gets out around 4.0.
Other races are very competitive and nothing stands out as outstanding value
Punter's get a sound racing surface to play on again today (currently Dead 4 but expect an early upgrade to Good 3) but are faced with a very challenging card and many races have a too hard look about them.
I dealt with the Cup last night but just to reiterate I have Mount Athos favourite at 6.00.He touched 8.8 on Betfair before I want to bed last night but no surprise to see the UK punters force him back into 7.6 overnight.Mourayan is huge overs at 32.0 I may have him too short at 10.0 but he gets a great run here and is very live hope.He was my clear top pick last year but was scratched on the morning of the race.Ethiopia is underated and clear value at 27.0 I rate him at 15.0.Green Moon is 19.50 against my 12.0 and Lights Of Heaven is 20.0 my rating is 15.0.
I have backed Magnier in race 5.I rate him 3.60 and there is still some 4.20 available.Back to the 1000m suits him here and pretty keen he'll be involved today.
Race 3 is tough but I will be having a little on Verdant.Fast ground today is a big plus for him as is the drop back to 2800m.I have him 5.0 and you'll shop much better than that closer to post time.
Race 4 is trappy mares race but Steps In Time has got out too far with 9.0 on offer against my rating of 5.50.She will need a good ride from the wide gate but has J Cassidy riding and is worth chancing at the overs.
Race 6.Angelic Light is going really well but she has a tricky gate here and is likely to be posted wide so a good ride is needed.Benenden in constrast gets an ideal gate and is improving fast.8.0 is good value against my rating of 5.50.I may save on Angelic Light if she gets out around 4.0.
Other races are very competitive and nothing stands out as outstanding value
Melbourne Cup Rated Prices and Comments
There is a little rain around Melbourne today (Monday) and a little forecast overnight but all in all it seems likely only to amount to what the course curator would put on the track if there had been no rain at all.Expect a Dead 4 reading at 6.30am tomorrow and good fast racing ground come Cup time.
With Australian trained horses the likely leaders don't expect any mad speed and those handily placed will take some pegging back.
Here are my rated prices for the Cup based on the track being rated a good 3 come post time and the pace being only even at best
Mount Athos 6.00 Massive improver this year,easily the best handicapped horse
Dunaden 8.50 Improved again in Europe this year and brilliant at Caulfield
Mourayan 10.0 Classy,solid stayer.Maps perfectly.
Green Moon 12.0 Better suited here than in Cox Plate.Maps well
Americain 12.0 Excellent in Caulfield Cup.Will be giving a start though
Ethiopia 15.0 Still improving,under rated.Very good in Cox Plate
Lights Of H. 15.0 Very good third Caulfield Cup.Will go forward and race handily
Red Cadeaux 15.0 Just denied last year-may give too much start
My Quest For P. 29.00 Every chance in Caulfield Cup but may be fitter
Maluckyday 29.0 Maybe not as good as a couple of years ago
Zabeelionaire 41.0 Has more to offer perhaps
Galileo's Ch. 41.0 Doubt good enough on fast ground but Trainer commands respect
Fiorente 51.0 Best effort was on a slow surface
Tac De Boistron 56.0 Best form on wet
Niwot 61.0 Unplaced last year with less weight
Cavalryman 66.0 Not as good as he used to be
Kelinni 66.0 Good Sydney stayer who won on Saturday but out of depth here
Glencaddam G. 76.0 Well backed fav. for Caulfield Cup but limitations exposed there
Jakkalberry 101.0 Looks likely to be trapped wide or have to go back to rear
Winchester 101.0 Outside barrier means he will be out the back
Voila Ici 151.0 Doubt good enough
Sanagas 151.0 Doubt good enough
Precedence 201.0 Struggles this trip
Unusual Suspect 351.0 Not going well enough to figure
Value runners in order of preference are:-
Mount Athos 8.6 I have at 6.0
Mourayan 27.0 I have at 10.0
Green Moon 19.5 I have at 12.0
Ethiopia 25.0 I have at 15.0
Lights Of H. 20.0 I have at 15.0
Zebilionaire 55.0 I have at 41.0
Niwot 80.0 I have at 61.0
Prices quoted are Betfair's current odds
Back tomorrow with a look at the rest of the Flemington card
With Australian trained horses the likely leaders don't expect any mad speed and those handily placed will take some pegging back.
Here are my rated prices for the Cup based on the track being rated a good 3 come post time and the pace being only even at best
Mount Athos 6.00 Massive improver this year,easily the best handicapped horse
Dunaden 8.50 Improved again in Europe this year and brilliant at Caulfield
Mourayan 10.0 Classy,solid stayer.Maps perfectly.
Green Moon 12.0 Better suited here than in Cox Plate.Maps well
Americain 12.0 Excellent in Caulfield Cup.Will be giving a start though
Ethiopia 15.0 Still improving,under rated.Very good in Cox Plate
Lights Of H. 15.0 Very good third Caulfield Cup.Will go forward and race handily
Red Cadeaux 15.0 Just denied last year-may give too much start
My Quest For P. 29.00 Every chance in Caulfield Cup but may be fitter
Maluckyday 29.0 Maybe not as good as a couple of years ago
Zabeelionaire 41.0 Has more to offer perhaps
Galileo's Ch. 41.0 Doubt good enough on fast ground but Trainer commands respect
Fiorente 51.0 Best effort was on a slow surface
Tac De Boistron 56.0 Best form on wet
Niwot 61.0 Unplaced last year with less weight
Cavalryman 66.0 Not as good as he used to be
Kelinni 66.0 Good Sydney stayer who won on Saturday but out of depth here
Glencaddam G. 76.0 Well backed fav. for Caulfield Cup but limitations exposed there
Jakkalberry 101.0 Looks likely to be trapped wide or have to go back to rear
Winchester 101.0 Outside barrier means he will be out the back
Voila Ici 151.0 Doubt good enough
Sanagas 151.0 Doubt good enough
Precedence 201.0 Struggles this trip
Unusual Suspect 351.0 Not going well enough to figure
Value runners in order of preference are:-
Mount Athos 8.6 I have at 6.0
Mourayan 27.0 I have at 10.0
Green Moon 19.5 I have at 12.0
Ethiopia 25.0 I have at 15.0
Lights Of H. 20.0 I have at 15.0
Zebilionaire 55.0 I have at 41.0
Niwot 80.0 I have at 61.0
Prices quoted are Betfair's current odds
Back tomorrow with a look at the rest of the Flemington card
Friday 2 November 2012
Flemington Victoria Derby Day
This day has been a bookies benefit on many occasions in the past so an element of caution is understandable in those who have been kicking around for a few years.Generally it's weather related-wet tracks tilt the balance in favour of the layers and dry tracks give the punters their chance.Track rates a Dead 4 this morning but with a dry day expect good fast racing ground.
Ideal punting conditions then and a card that makes plenty of appeal.Bookies will be betting to very tight margins so with early morning markets framed around 120% expect better value later in the day when they will be betting around 110% or lower in some races.Fancied ones will hold or firm though.
Race 1 Al Aneed makes plenty of appeal.1600m looks ideal and the dry track will suit.Expect him to be closer to the speed today.4.40 this morning I rate him 3.60.Take the 4.40
Race 2 Gatewood is too short here at 3.0.I have my reservations about him in a strongly run race around this trip.Much more attractive is Excluded at 6.50.He's still improving and looks sure to be involved.I have him at 4.50.Take the 6.50
Race 3 Zydeco is a stand out here.She is 2.70 this morning and I expect to shorten and the rest to drift.I rate her 2.0.Take the 2.70
Race 4 Snitzerland is too big at 4.25.She is very tough and has the best form.I rate her 3.50
Race 5 Ocean Park should win but not playing at 1.60
Race 6 It's a Dundeel looked very good winning the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney.He was given too much to do last week but the winner Super Cool was going away again at the finish.Super Cool has plenty more to offer and at the relative prices he makes most appeal.He's 6.0 this morning and I rate him 4.80.I'll be saving on It's a Dundeel.
Race 7 Streama is the most likely winner.She is a general 3.0 this morning and I have her at 2.70.Lets hope we can shop around 3.25 at some point in the afternoon
Race 8 Howmuchdoyouloveme was super impressive when resuming at Caulfield but he has to go to another level here and is too short now at 2.40.Pampelone still has a bit of upside and he's good value around 7.0 .I rate him 5.50
Race 9 Tricky race and can't see any value
Ideal punting conditions then and a card that makes plenty of appeal.Bookies will be betting to very tight margins so with early morning markets framed around 120% expect better value later in the day when they will be betting around 110% or lower in some races.Fancied ones will hold or firm though.
Race 1 Al Aneed makes plenty of appeal.1600m looks ideal and the dry track will suit.Expect him to be closer to the speed today.4.40 this morning I rate him 3.60.Take the 4.40
Race 2 Gatewood is too short here at 3.0.I have my reservations about him in a strongly run race around this trip.Much more attractive is Excluded at 6.50.He's still improving and looks sure to be involved.I have him at 4.50.Take the 6.50
Race 3 Zydeco is a stand out here.She is 2.70 this morning and I expect to shorten and the rest to drift.I rate her 2.0.Take the 2.70
Race 4 Snitzerland is too big at 4.25.She is very tough and has the best form.I rate her 3.50
Race 5 Ocean Park should win but not playing at 1.60
Race 6 It's a Dundeel looked very good winning the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney.He was given too much to do last week but the winner Super Cool was going away again at the finish.Super Cool has plenty more to offer and at the relative prices he makes most appeal.He's 6.0 this morning and I rate him 4.80.I'll be saving on It's a Dundeel.
Race 7 Streama is the most likely winner.She is a general 3.0 this morning and I have her at 2.70.Lets hope we can shop around 3.25 at some point in the afternoon
Race 8 Howmuchdoyouloveme was super impressive when resuming at Caulfield but he has to go to another level here and is too short now at 2.40.Pampelone still has a bit of upside and he's good value around 7.0 .I rate him 5.50
Race 9 Tricky race and can't see any value
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