Sorry I'm a bit late with this but the first two races were an easy miss for me.
Still a Heavy 10 but it looks to be playing ok-there is rain forecast but not till this evening.
The form has held up really well this week considering the ground so hopefully that tread continues.
I'm not committed early to anything today but there are definite possibilities both backs and lays.
Updates,Bets/Lays sent via Twitter.
I've had a couple of requests to list any Blackbookers I have engaged in the blog.Please note these are just horses I've noted as been likely to be of interest going forward.They are not automatic bets as sometimes they are raced in unsatisfactory races (out of their class,wrong trip,wrong ground etc.) Anyway there is no harm in listing them so here are todays
W'bool R3 Isaiah
R4 Montoya Heights
R8 Akzar
Haylaman
St. Jean
Wagga R7 Unanimously
Wednesday 30 April 2014
Wednesday's UK Racing
Good card at Ascot today and the going there is Soft.
It's very much a watch and learn meeting though. A fair few of those competing today that have had a run this season come through the Craven meeting a couple of weeks ago run on decent ground- very different from today's wet conditions. There's a chance there could be some more rain at Ascot so monitor conditions. I doubt I'll be backing anything and chances are I'll be concentrating on the lay side of the exchange.
Pontefract is Good/Good to Firm in places with a chance of a shower but unlikely to be enough to change conditions.Typical midweek programme for the track and interesting enough but nothing really appeals betting wise at this stage.
Brighton's evening fixture is likely to be run on wet ground with more rain forecast there and a modest card looks even less appealing with more rain likely.
Updates via Twitter once racing gets under way
It's very much a watch and learn meeting though. A fair few of those competing today that have had a run this season come through the Craven meeting a couple of weeks ago run on decent ground- very different from today's wet conditions. There's a chance there could be some more rain at Ascot so monitor conditions. I doubt I'll be backing anything and chances are I'll be concentrating on the lay side of the exchange.
Pontefract is Good/Good to Firm in places with a chance of a shower but unlikely to be enough to change conditions.Typical midweek programme for the track and interesting enough but nothing really appeals betting wise at this stage.
Brighton's evening fixture is likely to be run on wet ground with more rain forecast there and a modest card looks even less appealing with more rain likely.
Updates via Twitter once racing gets under way
Tuesday 29 April 2014
Warrnambool-Day Two & Canterbury
Heavy 10 for Warnambool's second day although it's dry now and forecast to stay that way so there may be an upgrade at some stage.
Canerbury is a Slow 6.The forecast is a bit vague.Looking at the radar I'd say it will probably be dry there this afternoon.Canterbury dries out quickly so keep monitoring.
Despite the Heavy 10 at Warrnambool yesterday the fancied horses were to the fore and I doubt many layers came out on top.
There are possibilities at both meetings today but I'm not committed to anything yet at this stage.
Bets/Lays and updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon
Canerbury is a Slow 6.The forecast is a bit vague.Looking at the radar I'd say it will probably be dry there this afternoon.Canterbury dries out quickly so keep monitoring.
Despite the Heavy 10 at Warrnambool yesterday the fancied horses were to the fore and I doubt many layers came out on top.
There are possibilities at both meetings today but I'm not committed to anything yet at this stage.
Bets/Lays and updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon
Monday 28 April 2014
Warrnambool -Day One
Day one of three at the Warrnambool carnival if it actually gets under way.Sam Hyland has just tweeted it's a Heavy 10 and stewards are going ahead at this stage but it's still raining and there more to come.
This is a hugely popular three days although as I don't bet on Jumps racing it doesn't hold quite the same appeal for me as it does for so many others.
I'm only really looking at the last four races today and there is no point going off early with anything until it's sure it's on and the state of the track is ascertained.
Updates and Bets/Lays sent via Twitter today but I won't be involved at all until race 7 at around 2.50 pm.
This is a hugely popular three days although as I don't bet on Jumps racing it doesn't hold quite the same appeal for me as it does for so many others.
I'm only really looking at the last four races today and there is no point going off early with anything until it's sure it's on and the state of the track is ascertained.
Updates and Bets/Lays sent via Twitter today but I won't be involved at all until race 7 at around 2.50 pm.
Sunday 27 April 2014
Prix Ganay and some very strange Betfair fluctuations
Prix Ganay at Longchamp overnight and a tremendous tussle between the "arc' heroine Treve and the evergreen Cirrus Des Aigles. Treve looked home when she joined Cirrus but the old war horse kept finding and Treve died on her run with the margin a short neck in favour of Cirrus des Aigles at the line. Great race and a rematch at Royal Ascot would see me firmly in Treve's corner as no doubt she will be much fitter. I have been a bit bemused by how little support Dettori has had from trainers in the early part of the European turf season. He's an outstanding rider and he ought to be in huge demand. That said I think his hunger for a big winner got the better of him here-I thought he got there a tad too soon.
The Betfair market on this race was very strange. 45 minutes before the off I had a look at it and Treve was 1.30.The PMU in France had her 1.30 and bookies quotes were generally split between 1.3 and 1.33 with plenty of the larger firms offering 1.33.Sure I was spotting an opportunity to get an earn out of the race I laid Treve for around $10,000 expecting her to get out on Betfair to at least a tick or so above the 1.33 on offer with a lot of bookies and then being able to offload with a healthy trading profit. Despite there been plenty of 1.33 on offer at the off and the french PMU returning her at 1.40 all Treve did was firm on Betfair late.Her Betfair SP was 1.21 (Betdaq the other exchange was 1.20 I believe on the off). Why would anyone chase "unders" like this especially with the winning commission to pay?
What was happening here I asked myself as I examined my burnt fingers. Have bookies become so gutless that they won't take 10/20 grand bet at threes on? Are there some clowns out there happy to have a few grand on Betfair without shopping around for better elsewhere? Are Betfair or their agents active in their own markets forcing the price in and offloading elsewhere at better. I don't accurately know the answer to these questions but the fluctuations in this event defied all logic.
The Betfair market on this race was very strange. 45 minutes before the off I had a look at it and Treve was 1.30.The PMU in France had her 1.30 and bookies quotes were generally split between 1.3 and 1.33 with plenty of the larger firms offering 1.33.Sure I was spotting an opportunity to get an earn out of the race I laid Treve for around $10,000 expecting her to get out on Betfair to at least a tick or so above the 1.33 on offer with a lot of bookies and then being able to offload with a healthy trading profit. Despite there been plenty of 1.33 on offer at the off and the french PMU returning her at 1.40 all Treve did was firm on Betfair late.Her Betfair SP was 1.21 (Betdaq the other exchange was 1.20 I believe on the off). Why would anyone chase "unders" like this especially with the winning commission to pay?
What was happening here I asked myself as I examined my burnt fingers. Have bookies become so gutless that they won't take 10/20 grand bet at threes on? Are there some clowns out there happy to have a few grand on Betfair without shopping around for better elsewhere? Are Betfair or their agents active in their own markets forcing the price in and offloading elsewhere at better. I don't accurately know the answer to these questions but the fluctuations in this event defied all logic.
Weekly Round Up
Not a great week with a lot of problems with accessing the Racing Network (hopefully now resolved) and similar issues on Friday with the Racing Post site.These may seem like minor irritations but with so much racing on anything that disrupts the schedule causes chaos and if I can't do my form thoroughly with my final checks and balances I am very reluctant to get involved.
The blog was in the red again this week-here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets sent via Twitter-bets in 7 races-no winners
Stakes 6.80 units
Loss 6.80 units
Bets advised in the Blog -1 race,1 winner
Stakes 0.85
Profit 5.53
Overall Loss on week 1.27 units
No bets this week in the UK
The UK flat season is still trying to get into gear but it's so poorly scheduled through April that it is very difficult to get into any kind of routine with it.All that changes this week with good racing at Ascot on Wednesday and the Guineas meeting at Newmarket next weekend.
The Sydney carnival finished up yesterday so for the next few weeks Brisbane has centre stage in Australia.
Looking forward to a better a week.
The blog was in the red again this week-here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets sent via Twitter-bets in 7 races-no winners
Stakes 6.80 units
Loss 6.80 units
Bets advised in the Blog -1 race,1 winner
Stakes 0.85
Profit 5.53
Overall Loss on week 1.27 units
No bets this week in the UK
The UK flat season is still trying to get into gear but it's so poorly scheduled through April that it is very difficult to get into any kind of routine with it.All that changes this week with good racing at Ascot on Wednesday and the Guineas meeting at Newmarket next weekend.
The Sydney carnival finished up yesterday so for the next few weeks Brisbane has centre stage in Australia.
Looking forward to a better a week.
Friday 25 April 2014
Randwick Carnival Final day & Sandown
Randwick posts a Slow 6 for the final day of it's Autumn carnival.Overall it's a disappointing card for a feature day.Not many races appeal betting wise.
Sandown is a Good 3 and there is some very light rain around currently.Dount it makes a great deal of difference but monitor to be sure.
I sent one bet through early via twitter -Sandown R3 Pin Your Hopes 0.75 units at 6.70 or better-take the 9.0 (now into 7.0) .It was bigger earlier but I missed the top odds.
Sand R 4 Khutulun is on offer at 7.50 with Bet365 if you can get on.I have her at 6.0 so at 6.50 or better 0.85 units
There other possibilities today depending on how tracks are playing and how markets open up.
I'm keen on Darci Magic in R6 up at eagle farm but I'm not committed yet.
Bets/Lays and updates via Twitter through the afternoon
Sandown is a Good 3 and there is some very light rain around currently.Dount it makes a great deal of difference but monitor to be sure.
I sent one bet through early via twitter -Sandown R3 Pin Your Hopes 0.75 units at 6.70 or better-take the 9.0 (now into 7.0) .It was bigger earlier but I missed the top odds.
Sand R 4 Khutulun is on offer at 7.50 with Bet365 if you can get on.I have her at 6.0 so at 6.50 or better 0.85 units
There other possibilities today depending on how tracks are playing and how markets open up.
I'm keen on Darci Magic in R6 up at eagle farm but I'm not committed yet.
Bets/Lays and updates via Twitter through the afternoon
Group Racing at Sandown and Doncaster
Very good card in the UK at Sandown today with more mundane stuff in the north at Doncaster.
Wet ground in prospect with Sandown already Good to Soft-soft in places and more rain due.Doncaster is Good to Soft and the forecast is for showers.
It's been a frustrating week and that continues today with problems accessing the Racing Post site today.
I can't finalize my analysis until it comes back on line and I'm due some sleep now so will have to rely on Twitter during racing.
It's the best days racing since the flat began a month or so ago and I'd like to do it more justice in the blog but the Racing Post is my main tool and without it I'm struggling.
Wet ground in prospect with Sandown already Good to Soft-soft in places and more rain due.Doncaster is Good to Soft and the forecast is for showers.
It's been a frustrating week and that continues today with problems accessing the Racing Post site today.
I can't finalize my analysis until it comes back on line and I'm due some sleep now so will have to rely on Twitter during racing.
It's the best days racing since the flat began a month or so ago and I'd like to do it more justice in the blog but the Racing Post is my main tool and without it I'm struggling.
Thursday 24 April 2014
Flemington & Warwick Farm Today
Flemington is posted a Dead 4 and it's a fine warm day so you would expect an upgrade.When Sam Hyland walked the track earlier he described it as having a good cushion so just be aware it may actually be a tad slower than a Dead 4-monitor.
Warwick Farm is a Dead 4 and it's showery and there has been a bit of rain around Sydney this morning but it's been around the coastal areas and it's possible the track may avoid any rain at all today and may upgrade.Again,monitor conditions throughout the afternoon.
Public holiday for Anzac day and the second one this week following on from Easter Monday. After Monday I was thinking that I always seem to find the public holiday racing harder work than usual so I decided to go through my results.Over an eight year period I found that on public holidays I actually had a 1.8% loss on turnover.That compares to a profit on turnover of 8.45% overall through those eight years.Those results are only on horses I've backed and do not include any "lay" bets which are showing a profit on public holidays.I've only been laying horses seriously on Betfair over the last couple of years so the sample size is too small to draw any accurate conclusions from.Purely on "back" bets though the figures suggest that I'd actually be much better off having a day off like the majority of people on public holidays as working on them has cost me money over that eight year period.
Taking all that it account maybe I shouldn't be betting today and it does look a trappy day overall.I have backed one however.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Longma drops in grade and backs up quickly from Saturday.On Saturday he was backed into favourite in a Listed event way stronger than this.I thought he had a mountain to climb there but this is much more suitable.The drop back to 1200m is probably a positive too.Overall he just looks a better grade than opposition he meets today ans I'm happy to be on him.
I tweeted him through earlier and there was some 4.0 on offer then (if your able to get on that is)
Advised Bet Longma 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-generally around 3.50 now-monitor the market.
Any further bets/lays and updates sent via twitter throughout the afternoon
Warwick Farm is a Dead 4 and it's showery and there has been a bit of rain around Sydney this morning but it's been around the coastal areas and it's possible the track may avoid any rain at all today and may upgrade.Again,monitor conditions throughout the afternoon.
Public holiday for Anzac day and the second one this week following on from Easter Monday. After Monday I was thinking that I always seem to find the public holiday racing harder work than usual so I decided to go through my results.Over an eight year period I found that on public holidays I actually had a 1.8% loss on turnover.That compares to a profit on turnover of 8.45% overall through those eight years.Those results are only on horses I've backed and do not include any "lay" bets which are showing a profit on public holidays.I've only been laying horses seriously on Betfair over the last couple of years so the sample size is too small to draw any accurate conclusions from.Purely on "back" bets though the figures suggest that I'd actually be much better off having a day off like the majority of people on public holidays as working on them has cost me money over that eight year period.
Taking all that it account maybe I shouldn't be betting today and it does look a trappy day overall.I have backed one however.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Longma drops in grade and backs up quickly from Saturday.On Saturday he was backed into favourite in a Listed event way stronger than this.I thought he had a mountain to climb there but this is much more suitable.The drop back to 1200m is probably a positive too.Overall he just looks a better grade than opposition he meets today ans I'm happy to be on him.
I tweeted him through earlier and there was some 4.0 on offer then (if your able to get on that is)
Advised Bet Longma 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-generally around 3.50 now-monitor the market.
Any further bets/lays and updates sent via twitter throughout the afternoon
Wednesday 23 April 2014
Wednesday's UK Racing
Epsom and Catterick on the flat today.
Epsom's spring meeting used to be a two day affair and quite an important early season fixture.It's status has gradually declined and it's now compressed into one day.It's a decent card today and better than I remember it being in recent years but it's very tough and soft ground complicates it even more.Depending on how wet the ground actually is will determine if they start coming wide under the stands rail searching for better ground.Under the circumstances I can say emphatically that I will not be betting there today nor at Catterick which hosts a typically modest midweek card with Good ground,Good to Firm in places.
I'm reluctantly giving the racing a miss today although I had planned to be working. Will just settle for doing the replays on today's fixtures.
Good racing in Australia at Flemington on Friday (Anzac day) and an excellent card later on Friday in England at Sandown so back then.
Epsom's spring meeting used to be a two day affair and quite an important early season fixture.It's status has gradually declined and it's now compressed into one day.It's a decent card today and better than I remember it being in recent years but it's very tough and soft ground complicates it even more.Depending on how wet the ground actually is will determine if they start coming wide under the stands rail searching for better ground.Under the circumstances I can say emphatically that I will not be betting there today nor at Catterick which hosts a typically modest midweek card with Good ground,Good to Firm in places.
I'm reluctantly giving the racing a miss today although I had planned to be working. Will just settle for doing the replays on today's fixtures.
Good racing in Australia at Flemington on Friday (Anzac day) and an excellent card later on Friday in England at Sandown so back then.
Tuesday 22 April 2014
Bendigo & Canterbury Today
The problems persist with Racing Network. It seems the issues are just with my account and due to a computer glitch.Attempts to resolve it with Telstra have wasted hours and no resolution.Unfortunately these guys have a monopoly on the replays I need so you cannot buy elsewhere.Telstra are total nightmare to deal with if anything goes wrong and you can tie up hours and hours talking to people who end up doing absolutely nothing about the problem so you either left with it or have to call back again.Minus 9 out of 10 for customer service.Minus 10 out of 10 is the mark for Foxtel who are unimaginable terrible to deal with but I need their service for the racing channels.
A 8.30 cardiology appointment this morning was delayed for over two hours so I'm frustrated and fed up which is not a good frame of mind to be in when your punting.
No early bets today but a couple I'm looking at later at Bendigo so bets/updates sent via Twitter.
Bendigo is a Dead 4 but probably upgrades and Canterbury is a Dead 5 and that track dries out really well so it should upgrade too.
A 8.30 cardiology appointment this morning was delayed for over two hours so I'm frustrated and fed up which is not a good frame of mind to be in when your punting.
No early bets today but a couple I'm looking at later at Bendigo so bets/updates sent via Twitter.
Bendigo is a Dead 4 but probably upgrades and Canterbury is a Dead 5 and that track dries out really well so it should upgrade too.
Monday 21 April 2014
Weekly Round Up & The Week ahead
In the red last week with the stellar run coming to end inevitably.I've included the losses from today (Easter Monday) into last weeks figures-here are the results:-
Australia
Bets all sent via Twitter
Bets in 8 races-1 winner
Stakes 9.65 units
Loss 3.65 units
UK
Blog
Bets in 1 race
Loss 1.35 units
No Twitter bets
Total loss for the week 5.00 units
I had a bit of luck getting a winning inplay bet matched over in the UK on Friday night in a race where the leaders went like scalded cats-only $50 but at odds of 43.5 it's made a big difference in limiting the week's losses for me personally.
This week ahead has the final day of the Randwick Carnival on Saturday plus a full Metro programme on Friday (Anzac Day).In the UK it's moderate flat racing today and tomorrow but there is a decent meeting at Epsom on Wednesday so I'll get back into the UK stuff then.
Australia
Bets all sent via Twitter
Bets in 8 races-1 winner
Stakes 9.65 units
Loss 3.65 units
UK
Blog
Bets in 1 race
Loss 1.35 units
No Twitter bets
Total loss for the week 5.00 units
I had a bit of luck getting a winning inplay bet matched over in the UK on Friday night in a race where the leaders went like scalded cats-only $50 but at odds of 43.5 it's made a big difference in limiting the week's losses for me personally.
This week ahead has the final day of the Randwick Carnival on Saturday plus a full Metro programme on Friday (Anzac Day).In the UK it's moderate flat racing today and tomorrow but there is a decent meeting at Epsom on Wednesday so I'll get back into the UK stuff then.
Sunday 20 April 2014
Easter Monday Racing At Caulfield & Kensington
Caulfield is a Dead 4 and there is the possibility of light rain but the radar is clear.On Saturday it went from a Dead 4 to a Slow 6 after a brief shower so the initial Dead 4 was probably dubious.Sam Hyland's comments when walking it this morning suggests it has a "nice cushion".Monitor closely.
The Kenso track is a Dead 4 and it's fine and warm in Sydney.Probably upgrades at some point.
There are no form replays available again on the Racing Network which is utterly disgraceful as the same situation persisted through Saturday.Whilst I've already reviewed all previous races and updated my ratings and notes I like to replay the previous races off all the horses I'm considering backing or laying just to be sure.Telstra run the technical side of Racing Network so that almost certainly explains the lack of vigour to resolve things-piss poor effort over a major racing weekend in my opinion and if any of you are affected tell them you want 3 months free to compensate for their inefficiency.
There are possibilities today but no early bets.I'll send everything through via Twitter throughout the day.
The weekly round up will be in the next blog
The Kenso track is a Dead 4 and it's fine and warm in Sydney.Probably upgrades at some point.
There are no form replays available again on the Racing Network which is utterly disgraceful as the same situation persisted through Saturday.Whilst I've already reviewed all previous races and updated my ratings and notes I like to replay the previous races off all the horses I'm considering backing or laying just to be sure.Telstra run the technical side of Racing Network so that almost certainly explains the lack of vigour to resolve things-piss poor effort over a major racing weekend in my opinion and if any of you are affected tell them you want 3 months free to compensate for their inefficiency.
There are possibilities today but no early bets.I'll send everything through via Twitter throughout the day.
The weekly round up will be in the next blog
Friday 18 April 2014
Queen Elizabeth,Oaks.Sydney Cup & Queen Of The Turf at Randwick,Easter Cup,Victotia H'cap at Caulfield
Four G1's at Randwick today and a strong card at Caulfield too.
Randwick is a Slow 7 and it may upgrade again. How much it dries and how it plays is crucial to anything I'm doing here today.I'm sure I'll be betting but I haven't played yet.
I could list the horses I'm considering but it seems pointless if your not committed. Surprisingly on such a big day there are no obvious stand outs with all the races being highly competitive.Most years there are usually a couple that go off very short but not this year.
It's a great day's racing but I'll just reiterate the points I made in earlier blogs.The same could and would have been achieved without spending all this extra money in prize money.$4 million bucks for the Queen Elizabeth is overboard.Would the field be any weaker if the pot was $2 million?
Caulfield is a Dead 4 and it may upgrade. It's a very tough programme but a good one. Betting wise there are possibilities in races 3,5 and 7 but I'm not on anything yet.
Bets and updates sent via Twitter
Randwick is a Slow 7 and it may upgrade again. How much it dries and how it plays is crucial to anything I'm doing here today.I'm sure I'll be betting but I haven't played yet.
I could list the horses I'm considering but it seems pointless if your not committed. Surprisingly on such a big day there are no obvious stand outs with all the races being highly competitive.Most years there are usually a couple that go off very short but not this year.
It's a great day's racing but I'll just reiterate the points I made in earlier blogs.The same could and would have been achieved without spending all this extra money in prize money.$4 million bucks for the Queen Elizabeth is overboard.Would the field be any weaker if the pot was $2 million?
Caulfield is a Dead 4 and it may upgrade. It's a very tough programme but a good one. Betting wise there are possibilities in races 3,5 and 7 but I'm not on anything yet.
Bets and updates sent via Twitter
All Weather Championship Finals at Lingfield & Musselburgh
Whilst I am very strong in my belief that there is far too much racing overall I have never quite understood why it's taken so long for racing to take place on Good Friday.Whether it ought to be a public holiday is another issue but as it is surely people are entitled to enjoy it as they choose. Australia still has no racing on this day but I'm tipping it will change very quickly with the UK racing authorities giving the go ahead this year.You can go to the pub for a beer after 5pm in the UK I believe but in Australia all the pubs are shut.Nightclubs open at midnight.Barmy isn't it?
My deep seated prejudice against all weather racing is probably illogical but I just cannot get enthused by it although I must admit Lingfield have served up a very good card for their "All Weather Championship Finals".They have thrown a million quid at it so you would expect a few decent performers to show up.
Because I haven't followed the all weather through the Winter and early Spring there is little point in trying to evaluate the races.There are some decent seasoned performers going around and some promising up and comer's so it's a card you have to take seriously if you are going to be punting on the flat over the next few weeks. I'll be studying the replays with interest.
Complimenting Lingfield's big day in very good card on the turf at Musselburgh where it's fine and dry and the going is Good to firm,Good in places. It's a tough meeting with some open looking contests so I won't be backing anything but the races are very competitive so they should provide some useful pointers for the next few weeks.
My deep seated prejudice against all weather racing is probably illogical but I just cannot get enthused by it although I must admit Lingfield have served up a very good card for their "All Weather Championship Finals".They have thrown a million quid at it so you would expect a few decent performers to show up.
Because I haven't followed the all weather through the Winter and early Spring there is little point in trying to evaluate the races.There are some decent seasoned performers going around and some promising up and comer's so it's a card you have to take seriously if you are going to be punting on the flat over the next few weeks. I'll be studying the replays with interest.
Complimenting Lingfield's big day in very good card on the turf at Musselburgh where it's fine and dry and the going is Good to firm,Good in places. It's a tough meeting with some open looking contests so I won't be backing anything but the races are very competitive so they should provide some useful pointers for the next few weeks.
Thursday 17 April 2014
Newmarket Craven Meeting-Day Two
Second day of the two day Craven meeting and it's Good/Good to Firm in places.
Another interesting day in prospect following on from yesterday when True Story stamped himself as real classic prospect with a dominant display in the Fielden Stakes.
The advised bet yesterday was a hopelesss flop as was my market judgement so let's hope things improve a bit going forward.
Newmarket
Race 4
Aljamaaheer has the best figures but he's a miler really so 2.30 looks short enough over this 6 furlong trip. Tropics was well below form when resuming at Doncaster but he had a great season last year and if he finds the form he showed at Ascot last October he'll be involved here for sure.Hamza is very potent force around this grade and Dinkum Diamond improved last time albeit on wet ground.
Probably will pass here.
Race 5
Toormore was a very high class 2-y-o and his effort winning the National Stakes at The Curragh had him top rated of the European juveniles.He has to concede 3lb's to the very promising Be Ready and that would put me off taking a short quote.A most intriguing race but a no bet race for me.
Race 6
This is extremely open and none of the nine runners would totally surprise. Definitely a no bet race although I might be interested in taking anything on that shortens up
The other races are difficult and it really is more of a watch and learn day.Some laying opportunities may present themselves later as market's fluctuate.
If I'm doing anything I'll send details via Twitter
Another interesting day in prospect following on from yesterday when True Story stamped himself as real classic prospect with a dominant display in the Fielden Stakes.
The advised bet yesterday was a hopelesss flop as was my market judgement so let's hope things improve a bit going forward.
Newmarket
Race 4
Aljamaaheer has the best figures but he's a miler really so 2.30 looks short enough over this 6 furlong trip. Tropics was well below form when resuming at Doncaster but he had a great season last year and if he finds the form he showed at Ascot last October he'll be involved here for sure.Hamza is very potent force around this grade and Dinkum Diamond improved last time albeit on wet ground.
Probably will pass here.
Race 5
Toormore was a very high class 2-y-o and his effort winning the National Stakes at The Curragh had him top rated of the European juveniles.He has to concede 3lb's to the very promising Be Ready and that would put me off taking a short quote.A most intriguing race but a no bet race for me.
Race 6
This is extremely open and none of the nine runners would totally surprise. Definitely a no bet race although I might be interested in taking anything on that shortens up
The other races are difficult and it really is more of a watch and learn day.Some laying opportunities may present themselves later as market's fluctuate.
If I'm doing anything I'll send details via Twitter
Wednesday 16 April 2014
Newmarket Craven Meeting-Day One
Day one of the two day Newmarket Craven meeting and a really interesting afternoon in prospect.
This can be a tricky meeting to navigate successfully punting wise and generally I don't have many bets there preferring to watch and learn.A handful of horses I'm interested in however today and one definite bet, maybe more later.
The weather at Newmarket is fine and dry and the going is Good-Good to Firm in places.Expect decent racing ground.
Classic trials with the Nell Gwyn for the fillies at G3 level and the Listed Fielden Stakes and the Free Handicap.The Free Handicap used to a very interesting and lively betting race when I first began following racing but it's stature has gradually waned and it's now worth around the same as a midweek Sydney maiden ($40,000).
Newmarket
Race 6
True Story is favourite here around 3.0.He won his maiden in good style but he looks very short on what he's actually achieved so far. Irish raider Obliterator also won his maiden at The Curragh in good style but 6.0 is short too.The two with easily the best form on the board are Barley Mow and Somewhat.Barley Mow was turned over at odds on at Lingfield on the all weather a few days ago-there were some excuses but I'm happy to bypass him today.Somewhat is a horse I really like and expect to prove to be a very decent horse this year.His trainers record in this race is excellent with four winners in the last 10 years and he should be favourite here.I have him 3.70 but there is plenty of 5.0 around.
Advised Bet: Somewhat 1.35 units at 4.0 or better.Take the 5.0 available now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Any further bets and updates sent via Twitter throughout the afternoon
This can be a tricky meeting to navigate successfully punting wise and generally I don't have many bets there preferring to watch and learn.A handful of horses I'm interested in however today and one definite bet, maybe more later.
The weather at Newmarket is fine and dry and the going is Good-Good to Firm in places.Expect decent racing ground.
Classic trials with the Nell Gwyn for the fillies at G3 level and the Listed Fielden Stakes and the Free Handicap.The Free Handicap used to a very interesting and lively betting race when I first began following racing but it's stature has gradually waned and it's now worth around the same as a midweek Sydney maiden ($40,000).
Newmarket
Race 6
True Story is favourite here around 3.0.He won his maiden in good style but he looks very short on what he's actually achieved so far. Irish raider Obliterator also won his maiden at The Curragh in good style but 6.0 is short too.The two with easily the best form on the board are Barley Mow and Somewhat.Barley Mow was turned over at odds on at Lingfield on the all weather a few days ago-there were some excuses but I'm happy to bypass him today.Somewhat is a horse I really like and expect to prove to be a very decent horse this year.His trainers record in this race is excellent with four winners in the last 10 years and he should be favourite here.I have him 3.70 but there is plenty of 5.0 around.
Advised Bet: Somewhat 1.35 units at 4.0 or better.Take the 5.0 available now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Any further bets and updates sent via Twitter throughout the afternoon
Tuesday 15 April 2014
Sandown & Kensington Today
Sandown is a Good 3 and it's dry so conditions there will be fast.It's a good solid midweek meeting and there are possibilities depending on how markets fluctuate as they open up a bit more.I haven't backed anything at early odds.
The Kensington track is posted a Slow 6.The Randwick track next to it which is in use on Saturday is rated a Heavy 9.I may be missing something but I would have a strong suspicion that one (or maybe both) of those track ratings is suss.I'll be looking at how the early races play here before doing anything.
Craven meeting begins at Newmarket overnight and there are a couple of possibilities there so will probably post a later blog today covering the UK stuff.
Bets/Updates this afternoon via Twitter
The Kensington track is posted a Slow 6.The Randwick track next to it which is in use on Saturday is rated a Heavy 9.I may be missing something but I would have a strong suspicion that one (or maybe both) of those track ratings is suss.I'll be looking at how the early races play here before doing anything.
Craven meeting begins at Newmarket overnight and there are a couple of possibilities there so will probably post a later blog today covering the UK stuff.
Bets/Updates this afternoon via Twitter
Sunday 13 April 2014
Weekly Round Up
A profitably week but one of mixed fortunes and with a tad more luck it could have been a very good one.All the bets again advised via Twitter with bets in seven races producing two winners (including the Doncaster winner Sacred Falls at double figure odds) and two that were run down late after trading at <1.05 on Betfair in the run. The profit on the week is 3.40 units on a turnover of 8.30 units.
Sydney's Autumn carnival still has two Saturdays to run and the better horses are beginning to appear on the UK/European scene with good classic trials last weekend and the Newmarket Craven Meeting on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
After Kingman demolished the opposition in last Saturday's Greenham Stakes I was amazed (pleasantly) that the normally miserly UK bookies had him generally 3.00 for the 2,000 Guineas.
I tweeted straight after the race that I though 3.00 was big overs and that the horse would probably start in the red on Guineas day.
I managed to get a decent amount matched at > 3.0 on Betfair and have traded back this lunchtime at 2.28 for a modest profit if the horse is beaten or scratched and a four figure profit to nothing if he wins. Wish it was always that easy!
Back Wednesday
Sydney's Autumn carnival still has two Saturdays to run and the better horses are beginning to appear on the UK/European scene with good classic trials last weekend and the Newmarket Craven Meeting on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
After Kingman demolished the opposition in last Saturday's Greenham Stakes I was amazed (pleasantly) that the normally miserly UK bookies had him generally 3.00 for the 2,000 Guineas.
I tweeted straight after the race that I though 3.00 was big overs and that the horse would probably start in the red on Guineas day.
I managed to get a decent amount matched at > 3.0 on Betfair and have traded back this lunchtime at 2.28 for a modest profit if the horse is beaten or scratched and a four figure profit to nothing if he wins. Wish it was always that easy!
Back Wednesday
Friday 11 April 2014
Championships Begin at Randwick & Caulfield
The much heralded ATC "Championships" begin at Randwick today with four G1's all with a massive injection of prize money.Is it money well spent?Are the fields much stronger than they would have been without the extra millions?Will Sydney's Championships soon rival Melbourn's Spring Carnival?
You may have a different opinion to me but my answer to all three questions is an unequivocal NO.
Who's money is being spent here really? Well if your a punter it's yours-that's where they get the vast majority of it from YOU. If you are happy subsidising the assorted Sheiks,Coolmores,Arrowfields,Widdens and the other plethora of fat cats as they swan around having a great time whilst vacuuming up your dollars then fine.Personally I think we are all being taken for a ride.
Anyway it's still terrific racing as it usually is but Randwick is wet as it usually is too at this time of year.Heavy 9 and coastal showers threatening more rain throughout the day.
One bet advised early by twitter but here it is again
Randwick R7 Gordon Lord Byron 1 unit to win at 5.20 or better-the 6.0 has gone but 5.50 is still available.May save here on Lankan Rupee.
Randwick R8 Shortlist for the Doncaster:- Weary (wet no problem) Messene (wet a big worry) Sacred Falls (career best this race last year on wet) Hawkspur (ready to win) Royal Descent (loves wet and steady prep-ready),El Roca (improving 3-y-o,handles slow ok),Dissident (form equal of El Roca).Maybe, a strategy around these runners and will advise via Twitter closer to post time.
Caulfield is a Slow and probably stays that way.No early bets but possibilities there today and in the other Randwick races.
Bets/Updates throughout the afternoon sent via twitter
You may have a different opinion to me but my answer to all three questions is an unequivocal NO.
Who's money is being spent here really? Well if your a punter it's yours-that's where they get the vast majority of it from YOU. If you are happy subsidising the assorted Sheiks,Coolmores,Arrowfields,Widdens and the other plethora of fat cats as they swan around having a great time whilst vacuuming up your dollars then fine.Personally I think we are all being taken for a ride.
Anyway it's still terrific racing as it usually is but Randwick is wet as it usually is too at this time of year.Heavy 9 and coastal showers threatening more rain throughout the day.
One bet advised early by twitter but here it is again
Randwick R7 Gordon Lord Byron 1 unit to win at 5.20 or better-the 6.0 has gone but 5.50 is still available.May save here on Lankan Rupee.
Randwick R8 Shortlist for the Doncaster:- Weary (wet no problem) Messene (wet a big worry) Sacred Falls (career best this race last year on wet) Hawkspur (ready to win) Royal Descent (loves wet and steady prep-ready),El Roca (improving 3-y-o,handles slow ok),Dissident (form equal of El Roca).Maybe, a strategy around these runners and will advise via Twitter closer to post time.
Caulfield is a Slow and probably stays that way.No early bets but possibilities there today and in the other Randwick races.
Bets/Updates throughout the afternoon sent via twitter
Tuesday 8 April 2014
Sandown & Warwick Farm today
Sandown is posted a Dead 5 with light rain around all morning and a forecast for more perhaps heavier-monitor.Warwick Farm is posted a Heavy 8 and it's dry and warm there so I expect it upgrades to Slow.
I have a plethora of "Blackbookers" engaged today but it hasn't really helped me identify anything I want to charge into at early odds.When you are dealing with rain affected tracks like we are today there is very little point in going off early unless you think you are getting really outstanding value.Those early markets are all running at 25% plus overounds and there is a much higher chance of late withdrawals (deductions from winnings) when there is uncertainty regarding track conditions.The chances of track bias also greatly increases.
So no early bets today but a few possibilities perhaps as markets open up and track patterns are established.
Bets/updates sent by Twitter throughout the afternoon
I have a plethora of "Blackbookers" engaged today but it hasn't really helped me identify anything I want to charge into at early odds.When you are dealing with rain affected tracks like we are today there is very little point in going off early unless you think you are getting really outstanding value.Those early markets are all running at 25% plus overounds and there is a much higher chance of late withdrawals (deductions from winnings) when there is uncertainty regarding track conditions.The chances of track bias also greatly increases.
So no early bets today but a few possibilities perhaps as markets open up and track patterns are established.
Bets/updates sent by Twitter throughout the afternoon
Sunday 6 April 2014
Weekly Round Up
A busier week and a good one.
Bets advised in 9 markets last week (all sent via Twitter) with 3 winners and a profit of 6.31 units for the week.
Three big Saturdays coming up at Randwick and the UK season continues it's spluttering start but it'll get gradually busier as the month progresses.
I'm streamlining things this year and focusing on the better days both in Australia and in the UK.The UK in particular has some very poor days midweek away from the festival meetings and I'll be giving those day's a miss.
Friday's in Victoria during Winter are almost exclusively on the Geelong synthetic as are plenty of Tuesday's so they are easy day's to avoid too.Generally I'll be operating Wednesday to Sunday but with occasional exceptions.
Back Wednesday
Bets advised in 9 markets last week (all sent via Twitter) with 3 winners and a profit of 6.31 units for the week.
Three big Saturdays coming up at Randwick and the UK season continues it's spluttering start but it'll get gradually busier as the month progresses.
I'm streamlining things this year and focusing on the better days both in Australia and in the UK.The UK in particular has some very poor days midweek away from the festival meetings and I'll be giving those day's a miss.
Friday's in Victoria during Winter are almost exclusively on the Geelong synthetic as are plenty of Tuesday's so they are easy day's to avoid too.Generally I'll be operating Wednesday to Sunday but with occasional exceptions.
Back Wednesday
Friday 4 April 2014
Golden Slipper,BMW,and Vinery at Rosehill & Flemington
A sombre week for Australian racing particularly in NSW with the tragic loss of a fine jockey and a young man who was a credit to racing, his family and to Australia.Vale Nathan Berry.
The rejigging of the Sydney Autumn Carnival was bound to have some negative consequences and the first obvious one is that this day looks to have lost some of it's former lustre.Still there are three G1's and obviously it's very good racing just not quite what we have come to expect from "Slipper"day.
The Golden Slipper itself is lacking something this year and ultimately that may not be too bad a thing.The introduction of shuttle stallions and the great success imported horses have had over here in the distance races has breeders producing more stoutly bred stock.
The Australian obsession with breeding for speed has had a detrimental effect on the quality of Australian middle distance and staying stock over the last three decades.That trend is now gradually reversing and this race is likely to drop off a bit over the next decade.
Rosehill is a Heavy 8 and dry now but a possibility of afternoon rain.
There is one likely bet at Rosehill but I'm not on yet and not definitely committed and a couple of possibilities after I've seen how the track and weather are holding up.
Flemington is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast conditions.It's a very competitive programme and I've struggled to find anything that I want to back at early odds.Possibilities as the afternoon progresses and the markets open up a bit.
Bet's and updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon.Hopefully I can keep the run going-2 from 3 this week via twitter for a profit of 7.59 units
The rejigging of the Sydney Autumn Carnival was bound to have some negative consequences and the first obvious one is that this day looks to have lost some of it's former lustre.Still there are three G1's and obviously it's very good racing just not quite what we have come to expect from "Slipper"day.
The Golden Slipper itself is lacking something this year and ultimately that may not be too bad a thing.The introduction of shuttle stallions and the great success imported horses have had over here in the distance races has breeders producing more stoutly bred stock.
The Australian obsession with breeding for speed has had a detrimental effect on the quality of Australian middle distance and staying stock over the last three decades.That trend is now gradually reversing and this race is likely to drop off a bit over the next decade.
Rosehill is a Heavy 8 and dry now but a possibility of afternoon rain.
There is one likely bet at Rosehill but I'm not on yet and not definitely committed and a couple of possibilities after I've seen how the track and weather are holding up.
Flemington is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast conditions.It's a very competitive programme and I've struggled to find anything that I want to back at early odds.Possibilities as the afternoon progresses and the markets open up a bit.
Bet's and updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon.Hopefully I can keep the run going-2 from 3 this week via twitter for a profit of 7.59 units
Tuesday 1 April 2014
Sandown & Warwick Farm Today
Sandown is posted a Good 3 but is subject to showers and will probably downgrade.Warwick farm is a Slow 6 but the weather is fine and an upgrade is very likely.
I've done no business on anything yet but there definite possibilities today depending on how markets shape up.I may have already missed the boat with one but may still go ahead anyway.
Bets/updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon
I've done no business on anything yet but there definite possibilities today depending on how markets shape up.I may have already missed the boat with one but may still go ahead anyway.
Bets/updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon
March Round Up
It's taking a while to fully get into the swing of things this year.January I took time off and had a spell in hospital and February seemed to be just lots of catching up and not really feeling very confident about anything.March has been much better although the volume of trade is still well down but is increasing and should be back to normal this coming month. Anyway less has been better with a steady flow of winners from limited selections.So far this year the figures are (blog posts bets and tweeted bets) Stakes 38.70 units Profit 19.34 POT 49.97%.
Here are the figures for March
International (Dubai World Cup Night)
Blog Stakes 1.25 Loss 1.25
Tweets Stakes 2.0 Loss 2.00
International Loss 3.25 units
Australia
Blog Bets in 3 markets -2 winners
Stakes 3.95
Profit 13.65 units
Tweets Bets in 22 markets- 5 winners (1 a saver bet)
Stakes 24.70
Profit 7.23 units
Australia Win 20.88 units
Grand total for March Stakes 31.90 Profit 17.63 units POT 55.27%
Hopefully the profits will keep coming as the year goes on but there is no realistic hope of maintaining these margins over time and there is bound to be a dud month or two unless it's a stellar year.
The UK flat (turf) racing started last Saturday but now there is nothing really happening until after this week's Aintree Festival and Saturday's Grand National.
I'm trying to find time to get the web site up and running with a live page happening that is constantly updating but I need help from the women at home Mother and/or Daughter to set it up as both are very IT savvy.I'm considering cutting off the money supply unless they fix it up for me (been waiting weeks now) but neither are pushovers and retaliation is always on the cards.Fingers crossed it'll be done this month.
Back tomorrow
Here are the figures for March
International (Dubai World Cup Night)
Blog Stakes 1.25 Loss 1.25
Tweets Stakes 2.0 Loss 2.00
International Loss 3.25 units
Australia
Blog Bets in 3 markets -2 winners
Stakes 3.95
Profit 13.65 units
Tweets Bets in 22 markets- 5 winners (1 a saver bet)
Stakes 24.70
Profit 7.23 units
Australia Win 20.88 units
Grand total for March Stakes 31.90 Profit 17.63 units POT 55.27%
Hopefully the profits will keep coming as the year goes on but there is no realistic hope of maintaining these margins over time and there is bound to be a dud month or two unless it's a stellar year.
The UK flat (turf) racing started last Saturday but now there is nothing really happening until after this week's Aintree Festival and Saturday's Grand National.
I'm trying to find time to get the web site up and running with a live page happening that is constantly updating but I need help from the women at home Mother and/or Daughter to set it up as both are very IT savvy.I'm considering cutting off the money supply unless they fix it up for me (been waiting weeks now) but neither are pushovers and retaliation is always on the cards.Fingers crossed it'll be done this month.
Back tomorrow
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