Weekend Round Up

I managed to get a blog out on Saturday and of the three selections we had a winner a second and one that performed way below expectations.A winning day but nothing to get excited about other than I'm mighty glad to be feeling much better.
I thought I might do a post or two covering the racing at Warrnambool this the week but my prime activity there will definitely be on the lay side of the exchange and those plays are very hard to communicate in advance.Tomorrow's card despite all the hype about Warrnambool is just a standard country meeting with a bit more prize money and plenty of runners.
Over the three days the highest rated flat runner at 104 is Tac De Boistron in the Cup on Thursday.Tac de Who?He's ex French if that helps!
It's a festival of mediocrity that's for sure and it signals the end of decent flat racing in Victoria until the Spring.
Queensland rules for a few weeks and then it's the dross and drudgery of Winter and the dreaded Geelong Synthetic.
I know the strike rate for favourites at the Geelong Synthetic is very high and as such it almost demands you take it seriously but I loathe it.The markets are very suss and I have a strong belief that it's best approached very cautiously just like the all weather at Wolverhampton in England. 
Back over in the UK however,things are simmering along very nicely and this weekend we have the Guineas meeting at Newmarket followed quickly by the May meetings at Chester and York.It's to the UK where the primary focus of the blog will be now for a few months.Expect a blog covering UK racing most days for the next few months beginning this coming Wednesday.
If your an Australian following the blog and are suspicious of British racing I hope you'll hang in there and see how the season builds up through the Spring and early Summer-backs off a bit quality if not quantity wise after Royal Ascot and then begins to crank up again in the  late Summer and early Autumn.Six months of fantastic racing and plenty of money to be made.I'm excited!!

Four G1's at Randwick and Caulfield

On the mend and happy to say there is still life in the old dog yet.
Randwick closes out it's carnival today with four G1's and an excellent supporting card.It's posted a Dead 4 but an upgrade is probable.Caulfield is also a Dead 4 but again I expect an upgrade.

Randwick
Race 5
I have very few 2-y-o bets only one race so far this season (Miracles Of Life and Guelph in the Blue Diamond) so need to feel very confident before committing.Guelph is available at 3.00 here and that's big overs on my figures.Gate 6 allows McEvoy the chance to position her handier today and she'll be powering past them I think.2.25 on my figures.

Caulfield
Race 5
Two horses here who are better than the rest and by a considerable margin.Motivado had a good campaign in England last season and he's a really useful stayer (proper stayer 2500m plus) who is capable of running really well over shorter fresh (won first up last season at 2000m).
Rugged Cross is also a very useful type and ex UK.He was very impressive winning at Sandown on his Australian debut.He's four weeks between runs stepping up to 1800m but that trip is going to suit him better and I'm confident he'll be fit enough.
Can someone explain this anomaly?Motivator ended his UK season on a mark of 103 and Rugged Cross on 104.Rugged Cross has already won his first race here and been raised from 72 to 78.Motivator who is rated 1 point inferior in the UK has his first run here but is rated 84, 6 points higher.Greg Carpenter (Senior Handicapper for Racing Victoria) please explain.
Rugged Cross is available at 3.0 against my rating of 2.50.

Race 8
Scratchings have taken a lot of the speed runners out here and I think Our Emily Mia can cross them and lead.I got very badly burnt when this one got turned over at Bendigo in March but she's won twice since then and was terrific in defeat last time.She's overs at 12.0 as I rate her 7.50.She's got lots of pace and is very tough.


Advised Bets

Randwick          Race 5       Guelph                 2.25 units to win at 2.35 or better-available at 3.0
                                                                         Shop around,average in 

Caulfield           Race 5       Rugged Cross       1.70 units to win at 2.60 or better- 3.0 best now
                                                                          Monitor price, average in

                          Race 8      Our Emily Mia      0.65 units to win at 8.0 or better -available at 12.0
                                                                         I've taken the 12.0 for 50% monitor the rest
                             

Update

Apologies for no recent blogs.Health issues have me"hors de combat" at the moment.Most of this month has been spent in a blur although I've watched all the racing, reviewed the replays and kept my ratings and notes up to date.I haven't been able to concentrate sufficiently to do any serious form analysis due to the medication I've been taking so there is no point getting involved in those circumstances.My medication is being reviewed later this week so I'm hoping to be able to get back to something like normal sooner rather than later.
The UK flat season burst into life last week after a very stuttering beginning.I've always loved the Craven meeting but it's been a bit below par in recent years I thought.Not so this year with some really eye catching performances and it augurs well for a good season ahead.Last years' flat season was very tough (Frankel excepted) with wet ground almost a constant factor from start to finish.My number of back bets was down 63% from the previous year and POT on back bets a miserly 2.68%.In contrast I had far more lay bets and managed an good 14.84% POT on those.Thank heavens for Betfair.
News from the UK today is that a takeover bid for Betfair has been announced with the initial offer being rejected.With Ladbrokes recently taking control of rival Betdaq it's interesting times for the exchanges.Hopefully whatever transpires is good for us too!
I'm hoping I'm well enough to operate on Warrnambool next week as it's a great meeting generally for laying, especially if it's wet.That said I copped a real flogging there the year R. Smerdon trained numerous winners all backed off the boards and most of them improving lengths on recent form.

Update

Apologies for no blog on Saturday.I'm battling a few health issues at the moment and newly prescribed medication made me very unwell last Friday and through into Saturday.I got up for the racing on Saturday but watched most of it in a daze.I did manage to concentrate a bit towards the end of the day and backed It Is Written in the last at Moonee Valley.After the way things have gone over the last few weeks I was a bit stunned to actually have backed a winner.I think I managed a short grunt of satisfaction before shuffling off back to bed again.I did get up again late to watch the Grand National and was delighted to see a Yorkshire trained horse, Auroras Encore win the race.He's trained at High Eldwick which is about 5 miles from where I grew up and went to school as a boy.
I'm still struggling a bit so no selections today but hopefully I'll be feeling well enough to post a blog on Saturday.

Sandown & Warwick Farm today

The site I use for checking the weather and radar is down so we'll have to go with the posted going only today.Sandown is a Slow 7 and Warwick Farm is a Dead 5.Moving well into Autumn now we can expect wet tracks to be more common.I have far less bets on wet ground than I do on dry so it's doubly frustrating to have gone through three months of perfect conditions so far this year and only have losses to show for it.Warwick Farm looks tricky at this early stage.The first five races at Sandown make no appeal at all but it picks up from race six

Sandown

Race 6
Waller has two imports running here today the first here in Mulaqen.He's sending these imported horses to Victoria because they are racing off lower handicap marks here than they would be doing up in NSW.Why are horses with proven established form coming here and been allocated marks around a stone in old currency below their actual ability?Maybe it's to encourage them to come to bolster up the staying races which have been woeful in recent years.It does seem a policy that very much favours the wealthy owners and trainers as the costs are high and out of the reach of the majority of players.A seven point concession to allow them to settle in and acclimatise is probably fair but they are getting too much as it stands.Anyway,back to Mulaqen.The race he won at York in May is usually a good form guide but I thought it was well below par last year.He's a grinding stayer judged on his UK efforts and I think he'll struggle over this trip.Host Off The Party looks a sound hope but at odds I've backed Tronador who will improve for the extra 200m-he's off bottom weight and is proven in the ground.He's 26.0 and my figures have him at 10.0


Race 8
Fulgar is the other Waller import on show today.If he's fit enough he should be winning this.His wet form is very good.He won a very competitive handicap at the July Meeting at Newmarket last year over 2000m but has solid fresh form over this trip.He's a solid C2 handicapper in the UK so rates around 92/93 yet here he is racing off 72.Between him leaving Luca Cumani and and now I have no idea if he's thrived or gone backwards so monitor betting.Don't let a minor drift put you off but if it blows like a gale pass.If he's right he's no more than a 3.0 shot here

Advised Bets

Sandown   Race 6      Tronador  0.50 units to win at 12.0 or better -26.0 available

                  Race 8      Fulgar       1.35 units to win at 3.30 or better -monitor betting as suggested

March Results

A dreadful month for the blog with only two short priced winners.I'd like to find a way to gloss over it but can't.

Stakes on the month      33.48

Loss on the month         21.10

April didn't start well yesterday either.

Back tomorrow with a look at Wednesday's racing