Moonee Valley tonight and a Dead 4 posted but I expect an upgrade to a Good 3 with a dry evening forecast.
A few races of interest tonight and I'll be active throughout the programme but with early markets at around 120/125% I'm reluctant to play early.There are a few possible plays this evening and I'll tweet through any thoughts I have as the night progresses.At this stage just one advised bet.
Moonee Valley
Race 8
I have reservations about Go The Knuckle and I thought Decircles should have been able to win last time and although he ran a sound second he did perform below the mark I has rated him.Big Buddie is a sound consistent horse and is a hope here.It Is Written has a bit to find on official ratings but he's the one I want to back here.He's lengths better here at the Valley than other tracks and can go forward here from his outside gate and make his own luck.Best priced 6.50 look attractive against my rated price of 4.80.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 8 It Is Written 1.05 units to win at 5.0 or better -have 50% now at the 6.50 and monitor on Betfair with the remaining 50%.
Look out for Tweets with more info later
Thursday 28 February 2013
February Round Up
Disappointing day for the blog yesterday to wrap up a shabby month overall.Losing month's are an inevitable fact of life if you are betting but this was the first month the blog has been in the red since it started so let's hope March get's everything back on track.A few unlucky seconds in February but the real damage this month was done by the selections that were relatively short in the market getting turned over too often.A mixed month too for picking the market-plenty of the advised bets were big firmers in the market but there were a few too many that were serious drifters for me to be anything but a tad disappointed overall.
Here's the breakdown for the month:-
Stakes 40.35 units
Loss 10.54 units
Races Bet on 26
Winners 5
Very good racing this coming month so every reason to be very positive.
Back tomorrow with a look at the Moonee Valley night meeting
Here's the breakdown for the month:-
Stakes 40.35 units
Loss 10.54 units
Races Bet on 26
Winners 5
Very good racing this coming month so every reason to be very positive.
Back tomorrow with a look at the Moonee Valley night meeting
Tuesday 26 February 2013
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Metro Midweek meetings today at Sandown and Canterbury.Sandown has posted a Heavy 8 and further rain is forecast although the radar looks clear at the moment.Canterbury is a Dead 5 but with a dry day forecast expect it to upgrade to at least a Dead 4 and possibly a Good 3 by mid to late afternoon.
I'm giving the Sandown meeting a wide berth.A couple of races have standout favourites that look mighty hard to beat but are unproven on wet ground.Some of the other races are just too hard to price up with any accuracy/confidence.I'll be active on this meeting but on the lay side of the exchange and "tweets" will go out if there is anything I think worth passing on.
Canterbury
Race 5
Giving Kristy Lee another chance here.Things didn't pan out well for her last time,getting too far back and she never looked a winning hope although the run was sound enough.Her effort round here previously was a PB and if she can repeat that today she will take all the beating here.A few go forward and she can get a nice midfield smother and attack straightening up.She's had an easy trial to top her off for this.Best price is 3.60 against my rating of 3.0.Stablemate Agon looks the main danger but I won't be saving here.
Race 7
Mashkoor returns to Sydney after three very good efforts in Victoria.This is a tad easier I think than the race he contested last time and he gets 2kg's off for young Guymers claim.He'll race on pace or track the leader from gate 2.He's generally run well but hasn't won for a while which is always a slight concern but he's a worthy favourite in this race and I have him rated at 3.60 against a top quote of 4.20
Advised Bets
Canterbury Race 5 Kristy Lee 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better -take the 3.60 now
Race 7 Mashkoor 1.35 units to win at 3.70 or better -take the 4.40 now
I'm giving the Sandown meeting a wide berth.A couple of races have standout favourites that look mighty hard to beat but are unproven on wet ground.Some of the other races are just too hard to price up with any accuracy/confidence.I'll be active on this meeting but on the lay side of the exchange and "tweets" will go out if there is anything I think worth passing on.
Canterbury
Race 5
Giving Kristy Lee another chance here.Things didn't pan out well for her last time,getting too far back and she never looked a winning hope although the run was sound enough.Her effort round here previously was a PB and if she can repeat that today she will take all the beating here.A few go forward and she can get a nice midfield smother and attack straightening up.She's had an easy trial to top her off for this.Best price is 3.60 against my rating of 3.0.Stablemate Agon looks the main danger but I won't be saving here.
Race 7
Mashkoor returns to Sydney after three very good efforts in Victoria.This is a tad easier I think than the race he contested last time and he gets 2kg's off for young Guymers claim.He'll race on pace or track the leader from gate 2.He's generally run well but hasn't won for a while which is always a slight concern but he's a worthy favourite in this race and I have him rated at 3.60 against a top quote of 4.20
Advised Bets
Canterbury Race 5 Kristy Lee 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better -take the 3.60 now
Race 7 Mashkoor 1.35 units to win at 3.70 or better -take the 4.40 now
Monday 25 February 2013
Weekend Round Up
A better day on Saturday with two winners which retrieved the losses from what had been a very shabby week up until then.Mr Moet got out to a backable price and had he not gone down by a nose after a ride a 3kg's claimer would be ashamed of it would have been a very good day indeed.Poor rides and bad luck are just something you have to live with and overall it does even out over time.
Looking back at my records over the years I find February is the most challenging month of the year closely followed by August.This probably has something to do with these months being the changeover from off season racing into the Spring and Autumn Carnivals.It's very good racing now through March and April and when it drops off in Melbourne and Sydney Brisbane is good on Saturdays through May and into June.The good flat turf racing starts in the UK in April which becomes a major focus for me then through the Australian Winter months.Really it's full on now for me until the Spring carnival finishes in November.
The blog has it's limitations as I can only look at races where odds are already posted and in truth a lot of my plays take place midweek around the "gaff" tracks where there are plenty of horses opening up big overs and unders.The ability to be able to "lay" horses on Betfair gives anyone who does their homework a real opportunity to profit on poor racing that just simply didn't exist before the exchange came along.I'm going to be using the "Twitter" link midweek to try and highlight a few of the possible plays so hopefully I can steer anyone who is following on Twitter into some nice winners or more often some solid "lays"
Looking back at my records over the years I find February is the most challenging month of the year closely followed by August.This probably has something to do with these months being the changeover from off season racing into the Spring and Autumn Carnivals.It's very good racing now through March and April and when it drops off in Melbourne and Sydney Brisbane is good on Saturdays through May and into June.The good flat turf racing starts in the UK in April which becomes a major focus for me then through the Australian Winter months.Really it's full on now for me until the Spring carnival finishes in November.
The blog has it's limitations as I can only look at races where odds are already posted and in truth a lot of my plays take place midweek around the "gaff" tracks where there are plenty of horses opening up big overs and unders.The ability to be able to "lay" horses on Betfair gives anyone who does their homework a real opportunity to profit on poor racing that just simply didn't exist before the exchange came along.I'm going to be using the "Twitter" link midweek to try and highlight a few of the possible plays so hopefully I can steer anyone who is following on Twitter into some nice winners or more often some solid "lays"
Friday 22 February 2013
Group 1's at Caulfield & Warwick Farm
Three G1's at Caulfield today.The track is a Dead 4 and a hot day in prospect so a Good 3 upgrade should be a formality.In Sydney the Autumn rains have arrived and the Warwick Farm reading of a Slow 6 looks very optimistic.It's persistent rain there and it's in for the day.Work on a Heavy 8 to begin with and expect it to deteriorate from there.
The blogs having a frustrating month and it's on target for it's first monthly loss.Hopefully,something can be clawed back today.
Caulfield
Race 5
Mawingo will have first run on Mr Moet and that is a big advantage round here in race that will almost certainly be run at a sedate pace.Mr Moet is very,very progressive and his run behind All Too Hard was just as good as Mawingo's in my book.I can't see anything else winning here.No bet advised at this stage but if Mr Moet get's out to around 4.50 on Betfair I'll probably be tempted.
Race 7
Guelph is the annointed Darley top 2-y-o so from such a powerful team has to warrant massive respect.She was very good here last time and the extra trip and strongly run race are both positives for her.Miracles of Life was sensational winning here too.She's a small dainty thing unlike the amazonian Guelph but her acceleration was breathtaking and from a good gate I think she will be the quicker filly today.My figures here are 2.70 Miracles Of Life and 3.80 Guelph.I'm not taking early odds here as I think 3.0 plus Miracles and 4.0 plus Guelph will both be available at times during betting.I'm backing Miracles and I'm saving on Guelph.
Warwick Farm
I am very wary of this meeting generally with deteriorating conditions and only one race appeals here today at this stage.
Race 7
Streama is the class act here but she's first up on bad ground and has much bigger fish to fry as the Autumn progresses.I'm working around her here.Skytrain is the obvious alternative and I know he's not the most willing horse in a finish but his last two efforts have both been good.He's a very good wet track horse and he'll be swooping out wide at the end.I've taken the 4.20 about him for 60% of my stake and I'll shop around on Betfair with the rest.I rate him 3.50 here.I've also backed Hood who I think is a very live hope here.On his day he can pull out a big run and fresh is a good time to catch him-he's a knob in the wet too.He's rated 89 but he's performed better than that rating on his "on" days so if he does his best he is right in this.He may lead-I hope he does as he can take some pegging back.I have him at 6.50 here and Bet 365 have him at 10.0
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 7 Miracles Of Life 1.80 units to win at 2.90 or better-shop for value
Guelph 0.60 units to win as a saver at 3.80 or better
Warwick Farm Race 7 Skytrain 1.40 units to win at 3.70 or better ( take 60% of the stake at 4.20 now and shop on Betfair with the remaining 40%)
Hood 0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (take the 10.0 on offer now at Bet 365-plenty of 9.0 elsewhere)
Follow any late news or new opportunities that come up by following on Twitter-just click the link
The blogs having a frustrating month and it's on target for it's first monthly loss.Hopefully,something can be clawed back today.
Caulfield
Race 5
Mawingo will have first run on Mr Moet and that is a big advantage round here in race that will almost certainly be run at a sedate pace.Mr Moet is very,very progressive and his run behind All Too Hard was just as good as Mawingo's in my book.I can't see anything else winning here.No bet advised at this stage but if Mr Moet get's out to around 4.50 on Betfair I'll probably be tempted.
Race 7
Guelph is the annointed Darley top 2-y-o so from such a powerful team has to warrant massive respect.She was very good here last time and the extra trip and strongly run race are both positives for her.Miracles of Life was sensational winning here too.She's a small dainty thing unlike the amazonian Guelph but her acceleration was breathtaking and from a good gate I think she will be the quicker filly today.My figures here are 2.70 Miracles Of Life and 3.80 Guelph.I'm not taking early odds here as I think 3.0 plus Miracles and 4.0 plus Guelph will both be available at times during betting.I'm backing Miracles and I'm saving on Guelph.
Warwick Farm
I am very wary of this meeting generally with deteriorating conditions and only one race appeals here today at this stage.
Race 7
Streama is the class act here but she's first up on bad ground and has much bigger fish to fry as the Autumn progresses.I'm working around her here.Skytrain is the obvious alternative and I know he's not the most willing horse in a finish but his last two efforts have both been good.He's a very good wet track horse and he'll be swooping out wide at the end.I've taken the 4.20 about him for 60% of my stake and I'll shop around on Betfair with the rest.I rate him 3.50 here.I've also backed Hood who I think is a very live hope here.On his day he can pull out a big run and fresh is a good time to catch him-he's a knob in the wet too.He's rated 89 but he's performed better than that rating on his "on" days so if he does his best he is right in this.He may lead-I hope he does as he can take some pegging back.I have him at 6.50 here and Bet 365 have him at 10.0
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 7 Miracles Of Life 1.80 units to win at 2.90 or better-shop for value
Guelph 0.60 units to win as a saver at 3.80 or better
Warwick Farm Race 7 Skytrain 1.40 units to win at 3.70 or better ( take 60% of the stake at 4.20 now and shop on Betfair with the remaining 40%)
Hood 0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (take the 10.0 on offer now at Bet 365-plenty of 9.0 elsewhere)
Follow any late news or new opportunities that come up by following on Twitter-just click the link
Thursday 21 February 2013
Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight
Terrible track bias over the last couple of days.Sandown and Wyong on Wednesday were very leader biased whilst at Ballarat yesterday nothing could make any ground out wide at all.Taking early odds can be an expensive exercise once bias comes into play and the form book counts for very little.
Moonee Valley tonight is a Good 3 and there is the possibility of showers but the radar looks pretty clear.Rail is in the true so hopefully the track plays fair.Canterbury is a Good 3 and whilst there is plenty of rain just north of Sydney it hasn't affected things yet.Canterbury hold moisture better than any other track I know so it will take a lot to affect the reading.
Moonee Valley
Race 5
Vatican is favourite at 2.80 but I think that's far too short.I have both Galbraith and Walzes shorter than him.Waltzes goes really well here and with speed on her he can get home over the top of them. 5.0 with Luxbet is very appealing against my rating of 3.80.
Canterbury
Race 5
Shamus is a horse still with a bit more to offer.He looked good winning on his first run for the Pride stable last month.He's trialled really well since.He'll be handy to the pace and this race looks ideal for him.A few here that you cannot dismiss but I think Shamus is a bit better than his mark of 75 and with the right run here 3.50 with Luxbet is big enough to tempt me.I have him rated 2.90.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Waltzes 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better (take the 5.0 with Luxbet)
Canterbury Race 5 Shamus 1.75 units to win at 3.10 or better (take the 3.50 with Luxbet)
I'll send any late info via twitter so if you are following the blog keep up to date via the twitter link
Moonee Valley tonight is a Good 3 and there is the possibility of showers but the radar looks pretty clear.Rail is in the true so hopefully the track plays fair.Canterbury is a Good 3 and whilst there is plenty of rain just north of Sydney it hasn't affected things yet.Canterbury hold moisture better than any other track I know so it will take a lot to affect the reading.
Moonee Valley
Race 5
Vatican is favourite at 2.80 but I think that's far too short.I have both Galbraith and Walzes shorter than him.Waltzes goes really well here and with speed on her he can get home over the top of them. 5.0 with Luxbet is very appealing against my rating of 3.80.
Canterbury
Race 5
Shamus is a horse still with a bit more to offer.He looked good winning on his first run for the Pride stable last month.He's trialled really well since.He'll be handy to the pace and this race looks ideal for him.A few here that you cannot dismiss but I think Shamus is a bit better than his mark of 75 and with the right run here 3.50 with Luxbet is big enough to tempt me.I have him rated 2.90.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Waltzes 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better (take the 5.0 with Luxbet)
Canterbury Race 5 Shamus 1.75 units to win at 3.10 or better (take the 3.50 with Luxbet)
I'll send any late info via twitter so if you are following the blog keep up to date via the twitter link
Tuesday 19 February 2013
Sandown & Wyong Today
Warm and Sunny conditions should see Sandown quickly up graded to a Good 3.Wyong is a Good 3 now and there are a few showers around but expect it will stay Good but obviously monitor whats happening as the day progresses.
There is nothing that stands out early on the Wyong programme so no advised bets there today.
Sandown is a good midweek card overall I think
Sandown
Race 1
Grand Ducal used to be a very decent racehorse.He finished fourth to the great Sea The Stars in the Irish Champion Stakes and then well beaten behind the same horse in the "Arc".Last time he ran very well behind Platinum Jack in one of these 3000m slogs that they put on regularly in Melbourne to bulk out the midweek cards.D.Thornton replaces J.Kissick as a late change but he still will have the 3kg's claim.Sandown will suit him better than Moonee Valley and with only 1.5kg's over the 54kg's limit here he looks mighty hard to beat.He took a lot of rousting from C.Newitt to get going last time and you'd like to think that from gate 2 he's be ridden a little more prominently today.Ideally he should be bustled up to lead entering the straight and he should beat these.I'm going to listen for any clues to riding tactics here on TVN and will tweet any update.My twitter account is new and only two followers so far but if you are following the blogs you should sign up for the tweets as there will be extra info that hopefully can help you get an edge and a PROFIT.Grand Ducal 1.90 on my figures best price out there now is 2.25 (Betfair 2.30).We'll monitor this one
Race 6
Ajeed(got soft lead when winning maiden) is favourite here at 3.50 but Beaumaris should be.Close seconds behind Bass Straight and Petite Diablesse is easily the best form on offer here.With A.Forbes claiming 3kg's he looks very well in here.Does settle back but Ajeed,Champagne Tales,Stockton and possibly Mightiest will go forward here so I'm expecting a reasonable tempo that gives all runners a chance.I have Beaumaris fav at 4.20.The 5.50 has gone but 5.0 is still good shopping and that's generally available.Zimmerman looked a nice prospect winning his maiden last time.Big jump in grade but about the same jump as Ajeed really yet Ajeed is 3.50 and Zimmerman is 18.0/19.0 which is big overs against my rating of 10.0
Advised Bets
Sandown
Race 1 Grand Ducal 2.60 units to win at 2.20 or better-(monitor fluctuations on Betfair here)
Race 6 Beaumaris 1.20 to win at 4.40 or better (take the 5.0 generally available now)
Zimmerman 0.50 units to win at 11.0 or better (take the 18/19.0 on offer now)
There will be tweets this afternoon if anything else comes up of interest
There is nothing that stands out early on the Wyong programme so no advised bets there today.
Sandown is a good midweek card overall I think
Sandown
Race 1
Grand Ducal used to be a very decent racehorse.He finished fourth to the great Sea The Stars in the Irish Champion Stakes and then well beaten behind the same horse in the "Arc".Last time he ran very well behind Platinum Jack in one of these 3000m slogs that they put on regularly in Melbourne to bulk out the midweek cards.D.Thornton replaces J.Kissick as a late change but he still will have the 3kg's claim.Sandown will suit him better than Moonee Valley and with only 1.5kg's over the 54kg's limit here he looks mighty hard to beat.He took a lot of rousting from C.Newitt to get going last time and you'd like to think that from gate 2 he's be ridden a little more prominently today.Ideally he should be bustled up to lead entering the straight and he should beat these.I'm going to listen for any clues to riding tactics here on TVN and will tweet any update.My twitter account is new and only two followers so far but if you are following the blogs you should sign up for the tweets as there will be extra info that hopefully can help you get an edge and a PROFIT.Grand Ducal 1.90 on my figures best price out there now is 2.25 (Betfair 2.30).We'll monitor this one
Race 6
Ajeed(got soft lead when winning maiden) is favourite here at 3.50 but Beaumaris should be.Close seconds behind Bass Straight and Petite Diablesse is easily the best form on offer here.With A.Forbes claiming 3kg's he looks very well in here.Does settle back but Ajeed,Champagne Tales,Stockton and possibly Mightiest will go forward here so I'm expecting a reasonable tempo that gives all runners a chance.I have Beaumaris fav at 4.20.The 5.50 has gone but 5.0 is still good shopping and that's generally available.Zimmerman looked a nice prospect winning his maiden last time.Big jump in grade but about the same jump as Ajeed really yet Ajeed is 3.50 and Zimmerman is 18.0/19.0 which is big overs against my rating of 10.0
Advised Bets
Sandown
Race 1 Grand Ducal 2.60 units to win at 2.20 or better-(monitor fluctuations on Betfair here)
Race 6 Beaumaris 1.20 to win at 4.40 or better (take the 5.0 generally available now)
Zimmerman 0.50 units to win at 11.0 or better (take the 18/19.0 on offer now)
There will be tweets this afternoon if anything else comes up of interest
Sunday 17 February 2013
Twitter & Email links plus the Weekend Round Up
I've added a Twitter and Email link to the blog today.If you submit your email address you'll automatically get all the blogs sent direct to your inbox.I'll be using twitter from now on to update late thoughts on market fluctuations,track bias and lots of late mail that I don't necessarily put in the blogs for a whole variety of reasons.Obviously during the course of a week I have a lot more plays than the selections that find their way into the blog.Most days midweek there are no early prices to compare to my "tissue" so until the market is formed I have little idea where the value is.If you follow me on Twitter I promise not to bombard you with tweets about nonsense -I'll be sticking to where I think there is value and opportunity.Some days you'll hear nothing and others plenty.
Last Friday evening's blog was a perfect example of where Twitter would have helped.I noted in the blog that I was very keen on the chance of Xavi but didn't list him as an advised bet because he'd begun to drift in early markets and I was a tad worried that the drift might have indicated a slight lack of fitness.That early drift was quickly reversed and he was very solid afterwards.I backed him at 3.70 against a rated price of 3.25 and said in the blog I would back him if the market didn't speak emphatically against him but a tweet would have confirmed definitely what my position was.If your following the blog I hope you were on.I can't include him in the advised bets unfortunately so officially the blog is still a bit behind this month although last week was a winning one despite not including Xavi's win in the results.
Three of this months selections have been very unlucky seconds (Magnolia Lane advised at 11.0 missed the start badly and went down narrowly,Compass advised at 6.0 was held up on the fence and just failed to get up and yesterday Carry Me Bluey 7.0+ was posted wide throughout and ran out of gas after leading inside the last 150m-truly an atrocious ride by young Clipperton but then they don't get the the apprentices claim for nothing).The luck will even out over time but it's been a bit frustrating of late.Thankfully the enigmatic Riva De Lago did the business yesterday to provide a modest profit on the day.Sorry about the advice to take the 7.0 (he traded around 9.50/10.0 on Betfair at one stage) but the Sydney market took a set against him.
Last Friday evening's blog was a perfect example of where Twitter would have helped.I noted in the blog that I was very keen on the chance of Xavi but didn't list him as an advised bet because he'd begun to drift in early markets and I was a tad worried that the drift might have indicated a slight lack of fitness.That early drift was quickly reversed and he was very solid afterwards.I backed him at 3.70 against a rated price of 3.25 and said in the blog I would back him if the market didn't speak emphatically against him but a tweet would have confirmed definitely what my position was.If your following the blog I hope you were on.I can't include him in the advised bets unfortunately so officially the blog is still a bit behind this month although last week was a winning one despite not including Xavi's win in the results.
Three of this months selections have been very unlucky seconds (Magnolia Lane advised at 11.0 missed the start badly and went down narrowly,Compass advised at 6.0 was held up on the fence and just failed to get up and yesterday Carry Me Bluey 7.0+ was posted wide throughout and ran out of gas after leading inside the last 150m-truly an atrocious ride by young Clipperton but then they don't get the the apprentices claim for nothing).The luck will even out over time but it's been a bit frustrating of late.Thankfully the enigmatic Riva De Lago did the business yesterday to provide a modest profit on the day.Sorry about the advice to take the 7.0 (he traded around 9.50/10.0 on Betfair at one stage) but the Sydney market took a set against him.
Friday 15 February 2013
Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day and Rosehill
The star performers are back now and the Queen of Australian racing returns today in the G1 Lightning Stakes now renamed The Black Caviar Lightning Stakes in her honour.Great stuff but not much good for betting purposes.
Flemington is a Dead 4 but it's hot so will upgrade.There is a chance of thundery showers during the afternoon but I'm expecting that unless there is a deluge it'll stay Good.
Rosehill is a Dead 5 and there are showers around Sydney today.So far they have mostly been confined to the city and the coastal areas but if they move inland then a downgrade is not out of the question.I'm working on a Dead track but mindful of the possibility of rain.
Flemington
Australian racing seems to be either "Feast or Famine".We've been dealing with some dreadful quality racing over the Summer and now a couple of weeks later were right in the thick of the Autumn carnival.The blog is very much on the side of one Flemington based stable today.
Race 5
What to make of Spending's capitulation last time?Surely it was too bad to be true.1400m should be no problem for her bred as she is.There was some very aggressive laying of her on Betfair close to off time last time and I suspect she wasn't fully wound up.The main targets for the O'Brien yard are generally the races here at Flemington and this is a Group 3 and a huge value booster for a filly bred as she is.C Williams has stuck solid and I too am giving her another chance.I've ignored the last run and have her rated a 3.50 chance
Race 8
The cream has gone from the price of Decircles now with 2.90 with best quote around.He was terrific resuming and looked a lost cause 500m out but really flew home and would have won in another 50m or so.He's very well in here and very hard to beat.I have him at 2.70 here so 2.90 still is some value and I'm going to put him forward as a bet at that price.
Race 9
The New Boy keeps running second so he's frustrating but nevertheless he's still the most likely winner here.He'll lead again and should get left alone in front.Kate Mallyon claims 2kg's and she has won on him before.4.20 on offer against my rated price of 3.60
Rosehill
Race 1
Fast Clip is going to be hard to beat here with not a lot of pressure against him up front.He's got a job on his hands giving 7kg's to Carry me Bluey though after S. Clipperton's claim is taken into account.Carry Me Bluey is a "get back run on" type and that's not an ideal in a race likely to be steadily run.The job for Clipperton here is to keep him covered up without letting him get too far back.I don't like backing get back types but he's massive overs here.7.0 on offer and I have him 4.50 absolute max here.His Brisbane form is very good for a race like this and he ran very well last time on his first Sydney start.The drop back to 1800m is a plus.Has to be backed at those odds
Race 7
Riva De Lago is a horse that has driven me nuts over the last couple of years.He's a nuisance but one I cannot ignore today on offer at around 7.0 in a race that looks very winnable for him.It's probably more me finding holes in the opposition than any great confidence in Riva but he did win in great style last time.7.0 is too big I've got him 5.0.Never again if he get's beat today
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 5 Spending 1.40 units to win at 3.75 or better (shop around 4.65 on offer and you may do better on Betfair)
Race 8 Decircles 1.85 units to win at 2.90 or better (2.90 on offer now and should be taken)
Race 9 The New Boy 1.40 units to win at 3.80 or better (take the 4.20 on offer now)
Rosehill Race 1 Carry Me Bluey 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better (take the 7.0 on offer now)
Race 7 Riva De Lago 1 unit to win at 5.50 or better (take the 7.0 on offer now)
Flemington is a Dead 4 but it's hot so will upgrade.There is a chance of thundery showers during the afternoon but I'm expecting that unless there is a deluge it'll stay Good.
Rosehill is a Dead 5 and there are showers around Sydney today.So far they have mostly been confined to the city and the coastal areas but if they move inland then a downgrade is not out of the question.I'm working on a Dead track but mindful of the possibility of rain.
Flemington
Australian racing seems to be either "Feast or Famine".We've been dealing with some dreadful quality racing over the Summer and now a couple of weeks later were right in the thick of the Autumn carnival.The blog is very much on the side of one Flemington based stable today.
Race 5
What to make of Spending's capitulation last time?Surely it was too bad to be true.1400m should be no problem for her bred as she is.There was some very aggressive laying of her on Betfair close to off time last time and I suspect she wasn't fully wound up.The main targets for the O'Brien yard are generally the races here at Flemington and this is a Group 3 and a huge value booster for a filly bred as she is.C Williams has stuck solid and I too am giving her another chance.I've ignored the last run and have her rated a 3.50 chance
Race 8
The cream has gone from the price of Decircles now with 2.90 with best quote around.He was terrific resuming and looked a lost cause 500m out but really flew home and would have won in another 50m or so.He's very well in here and very hard to beat.I have him at 2.70 here so 2.90 still is some value and I'm going to put him forward as a bet at that price.
Race 9
The New Boy keeps running second so he's frustrating but nevertheless he's still the most likely winner here.He'll lead again and should get left alone in front.Kate Mallyon claims 2kg's and she has won on him before.4.20 on offer against my rated price of 3.60
Rosehill
Race 1
Fast Clip is going to be hard to beat here with not a lot of pressure against him up front.He's got a job on his hands giving 7kg's to Carry me Bluey though after S. Clipperton's claim is taken into account.Carry Me Bluey is a "get back run on" type and that's not an ideal in a race likely to be steadily run.The job for Clipperton here is to keep him covered up without letting him get too far back.I don't like backing get back types but he's massive overs here.7.0 on offer and I have him 4.50 absolute max here.His Brisbane form is very good for a race like this and he ran very well last time on his first Sydney start.The drop back to 1800m is a plus.Has to be backed at those odds
Race 7
Riva De Lago is a horse that has driven me nuts over the last couple of years.He's a nuisance but one I cannot ignore today on offer at around 7.0 in a race that looks very winnable for him.It's probably more me finding holes in the opposition than any great confidence in Riva but he did win in great style last time.7.0 is too big I've got him 5.0.Never again if he get's beat today
Advised Bets
Flemington Race 5 Spending 1.40 units to win at 3.75 or better (shop around 4.65 on offer and you may do better on Betfair)
Race 8 Decircles 1.85 units to win at 2.90 or better (2.90 on offer now and should be taken)
Race 9 The New Boy 1.40 units to win at 3.80 or better (take the 4.20 on offer now)
Rosehill Race 1 Carry Me Bluey 1.10 units to win at 5.0 or better (take the 7.0 on offer now)
Race 7 Riva De Lago 1 unit to win at 5.50 or better (take the 7.0 on offer now)
Thursday 14 February 2013
Moonee Valley Tonight
Evening meeting at Moonee Valley and the track has already been upgraded to a Good 3.
I've held back this post waiting for all the races to be priced up but with just over an hour to go to the start of racing four of the eight races are still not priced up by any of the major bookies.
I'm looking at two races here tonight.
Race 5
I think Paaratte Pat is clearly the horse to beat here tonight.Last time around here he was given a most unsatisfactory ride and J.Mott is replaced by the good apprentice J Kissick (claims the 3kg's) this evening.He should hold the fence here and with the weights in his favour he looks very hard to beat.2.70 is the general quote which is close to my rating of 2.65 so I need a bit better to get involved here.2.90 plus will be ok and if you shop on Betfair around 25/20 minutes before post time I think you'll get that.
Race 7
Anlon looked good winning last time and he's a live hope but everything panned out really well for him last time and tonight he has sterner opposition and a tough gate to deal with.Xavi makes plenty of appeal at first glance.This race is easier than the one he ran second in when resuming.I'm just concerned about him being 3 weeks between runs and stepping up over 300m in trip.He's been a bit easy in early markets out from 3.50 to 3.80.I've got him rated 3.25 here but that's assuming he's fit and ready to go.I won't put this one up as an advised bet but I'll be backing him if the market doesn't argue emphatically against him but that early drift has me very wary
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Paaratte Pat 1.85 units to win at 2.90 plus (monitor Betfair and try to shop at 2.90 plus)
I've held back this post waiting for all the races to be priced up but with just over an hour to go to the start of racing four of the eight races are still not priced up by any of the major bookies.
I'm looking at two races here tonight.
Race 5
I think Paaratte Pat is clearly the horse to beat here tonight.Last time around here he was given a most unsatisfactory ride and J.Mott is replaced by the good apprentice J Kissick (claims the 3kg's) this evening.He should hold the fence here and with the weights in his favour he looks very hard to beat.2.70 is the general quote which is close to my rating of 2.65 so I need a bit better to get involved here.2.90 plus will be ok and if you shop on Betfair around 25/20 minutes before post time I think you'll get that.
Race 7
Anlon looked good winning last time and he's a live hope but everything panned out really well for him last time and tonight he has sterner opposition and a tough gate to deal with.Xavi makes plenty of appeal at first glance.This race is easier than the one he ran second in when resuming.I'm just concerned about him being 3 weeks between runs and stepping up over 300m in trip.He's been a bit easy in early markets out from 3.50 to 3.80.I've got him rated 3.25 here but that's assuming he's fit and ready to go.I won't put this one up as an advised bet but I'll be backing him if the market doesn't argue emphatically against him but that early drift has me very wary
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Paaratte Pat 1.85 units to win at 2.90 plus (monitor Betfair and try to shop at 2.90 plus)
Tuesday 12 February 2013
Cup Day At Mornington & Canterbury
Cup day down at Mornington and a very competitive 10 race programme there.Track is rated a Dead 4 but with no rain around and a forecast in the high 20's expect good fast Summer ground.Canterbury is listed as a Slow 7 and there is a bit of coastal drizzle around Sydney this morning but it doesn't amount to much.Canterbury is a very quick drying track so it will be no surprise to see a quick upgrade-if there is no rain at all it'll probably be in the Dead range by mid-afternoon.
The Mornington programme is extremely tough and I've found this to be a very unprofitable day over the years.All the races bar the Inglis 2-y-o race which looks a match between Twilight Royale and Resistant are very hard and I'll be doing more laying than backing there today.Hopefully I'll do better than I did yesterday where I layed 4 horses 3 of which were winners.Only one bet at Mornington and it's in the cup
Mornington
Race 8
Plenty of sound hopes in the Mornington Cup this year.The two big improvers are Durnford (up a massive 27 points for winning last time) who will relish the extra distance and Award Season who demolished a midweek field at Canterbury last time and who will also be much better suited out to this longer trip.Both can win but do have to improve a lot again to do so and whilst they can they currently account for almost 40% of the market and I think that is too much.At 13/14.0 Travolta appeals as good value.He's a steady improver,can get a good run from a nice gate and is a thorough stayer at this trip.I have him at 9.0 in a tough race so I'm happy to have a small bet at the current quote.
Canterbury is thin on races that appeal but I am keen on one here.Plus a look at race an earlier race.
Race 4
Three hopes here.On a line through Zedlion there isn't much between So Symbolic and Burberro.Both are lightly races improvers,are proven at the trip,can handle cut in the ground and swap senior riders for claimers today.Can't really split them.Disciple was a month between runs last time and was ultra weak in betting and ran poorly.If and it is an if, he's fit enough to produce his best he rates just about as sound a chance as the other two mentioned.If he was solid in betting I could possibly be interested in him at around 4.50
Race 5
Ninth Legion has contested group races in all of his last 5 starts (2 of them in G 1's).Here he is resuming in a midweek BM75 with a claimer on board.If you thought initial quotes around 4.0 looked inviting then think again because he's on the slide.Maybe he'll rally in later betting but early signals suggest he's not as good now as he was then.I like Zin Zan Eddie here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o coming of a solid win in Saturday grade last time.He can position handy here as most of these settle back.His debut run was on slow and he was a good third that day so any cut in the track is unlikely to be a negative.Best priced 3.90 against my rating of 3.40
Advised Bets
Mornington Race 8 Travolta 0.55 units to win at 10.00 or better ( 14.0 is available now)
Canterbury Race 5 Zin Zan Eddie 1.45 units to win at 3.50 or better (take the 3.90 now)
The Mornington programme is extremely tough and I've found this to be a very unprofitable day over the years.All the races bar the Inglis 2-y-o race which looks a match between Twilight Royale and Resistant are very hard and I'll be doing more laying than backing there today.Hopefully I'll do better than I did yesterday where I layed 4 horses 3 of which were winners.Only one bet at Mornington and it's in the cup
Mornington
Race 8
Plenty of sound hopes in the Mornington Cup this year.The two big improvers are Durnford (up a massive 27 points for winning last time) who will relish the extra distance and Award Season who demolished a midweek field at Canterbury last time and who will also be much better suited out to this longer trip.Both can win but do have to improve a lot again to do so and whilst they can they currently account for almost 40% of the market and I think that is too much.At 13/14.0 Travolta appeals as good value.He's a steady improver,can get a good run from a nice gate and is a thorough stayer at this trip.I have him at 9.0 in a tough race so I'm happy to have a small bet at the current quote.
Canterbury is thin on races that appeal but I am keen on one here.Plus a look at race an earlier race.
Race 4
Three hopes here.On a line through Zedlion there isn't much between So Symbolic and Burberro.Both are lightly races improvers,are proven at the trip,can handle cut in the ground and swap senior riders for claimers today.Can't really split them.Disciple was a month between runs last time and was ultra weak in betting and ran poorly.If and it is an if, he's fit enough to produce his best he rates just about as sound a chance as the other two mentioned.If he was solid in betting I could possibly be interested in him at around 4.50
Race 5
Ninth Legion has contested group races in all of his last 5 starts (2 of them in G 1's).Here he is resuming in a midweek BM75 with a claimer on board.If you thought initial quotes around 4.0 looked inviting then think again because he's on the slide.Maybe he'll rally in later betting but early signals suggest he's not as good now as he was then.I like Zin Zan Eddie here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o coming of a solid win in Saturday grade last time.He can position handy here as most of these settle back.His debut run was on slow and he was a good third that day so any cut in the track is unlikely to be a negative.Best priced 3.90 against my rating of 3.40
Advised Bets
Mornington Race 8 Travolta 0.55 units to win at 10.00 or better ( 14.0 is available now)
Canterbury Race 5 Zin Zan Eddie 1.45 units to win at 3.50 or better (take the 3.90 now)
Monday 11 February 2013
Weekend Round Up
My Monday's are spent reviewing both the weekend's racing and all the back and lay bets I've had.If you've been following the blog you'll know that Friday and Saturday's selections performed miserably and as a result the blog is behind on the advised bets this month.All previous month's have been profitable but there is a bit of work to be done to get ahead this month.
On reflection I have to concede that I got it wrong on Saturday.I have strict parameters that I generally stick to when taking early odds (and including as advised bets in the blog).On Saturday I bent the rules and strayed outside those parameters and got my arse kicked as a result.If you followed the blog with your "hard earned"on Saturday all I can tell you is that being human I'm prone to the occasional off day but they are hopefully,these days, the exception and not the rule.As my school report card repeatedly used to say "can and must do better".
Back Wednesday with a look at Mornington's cup meeting and Sydney's Canterbury card.
On reflection I have to concede that I got it wrong on Saturday.I have strict parameters that I generally stick to when taking early odds (and including as advised bets in the blog).On Saturday I bent the rules and strayed outside those parameters and got my arse kicked as a result.If you followed the blog with your "hard earned"on Saturday all I can tell you is that being human I'm prone to the occasional off day but they are hopefully,these days, the exception and not the rule.As my school report card repeatedly used to say "can and must do better".
Back Wednesday with a look at Mornington's cup meeting and Sydney's Canterbury card.
Friday 8 February 2013
C.F. Orr Stakes Day at Caulfield plus Warwick Farm
After the Summer drought G1 racing returns today with the running of the C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield.Hot weather for both Caulfield and Warwick Farm today so expect the Caulfield track to be upgraded from a Dead 4 to a Good 3.Just be aware that thundery showers are a possibilty at Warwick Farm this afternoon.It would have to sluice down to alter the Good 3 rating there but as Autumn approaches torrential rain is always a real possibilty in Sydney.
Caulfield
Race 2
Very keen on Sumakaray here.She was terrific winning over Christmas at Moonee Valley when wide throughout.Second there Avoid Lightning franked the form in Listed grade last week.She won't be wide today and can be right on pace from gate 2.She's back against her own age group here and although she is favourite she still is great value at 2.90.I have her a 2.35 chance here.
Warwick Farm
Race 3
Two relatively unexposed horses here against a field of horses who have generally peaked perfomance wise namely, Laser Flash and Pendolin.Laser Flash doesn't have much turn of foot and the stretch out to 2200mshould suit him providing he's fit enough second up.There has been some money for him so I'll take his fitness on trust here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o off bottom weight here and surely there is better to come from him.Gets a nice run just behind the speed here from gate 4.Best price is 5.50 against my rating of 4.50.
Pendolin worked hard outside the speed the whole way last time.In the circumstances it was a very good effort to stick on doggedly for fourth.She can lead or sit handy from gate 2 here.She is bred to be suited by the extra 300m today and is a mare progressing nicely-this is only here eighth start so she should have more to offer.10.0 on offer with Bet 365 and 9.50 at the TAB.I've got her at 6.0 here
Race 6
I thought the favourite here Happy Galaxy was chronic unders at 3.20 even though there is a chance he'll get a dolly lead.The ex NZ Warhorse now renamed Tougher Than Ever has a live hope on official figures-he's been backed so maybe he'll be fit enough to do himself justice here today.Skytrain was well ridden last time and he's a hope but he is a bit dodgy and you are brave if you back him.Albert The Fat is easily the best horse but he'll surely need the run and is being aimed at longer races.Centennial Park hasn't won since "Adam was a lad" but he goes very well fresh and loves fast ground.He doesn't really fit the profile of horses I like to back but I'm strong about my figures being accurate in this event and I have him at 5.50 and he is available at 7.0 so I'm on at 7.0 as I think the favourite will drift here.
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 2 Sumakaray 2.10 units to win at 2.50 or better (take the 2.90 now)
Warwick Farm Race 3 Laser Flash 1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 5.50 now)
Pendolin 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 9.50 + now)
Race 6 Centennial Park 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better (take the 7.0 now)
Caulfield
Race 2
Very keen on Sumakaray here.She was terrific winning over Christmas at Moonee Valley when wide throughout.Second there Avoid Lightning franked the form in Listed grade last week.She won't be wide today and can be right on pace from gate 2.She's back against her own age group here and although she is favourite she still is great value at 2.90.I have her a 2.35 chance here.
Warwick Farm
Race 3
Two relatively unexposed horses here against a field of horses who have generally peaked perfomance wise namely, Laser Flash and Pendolin.Laser Flash doesn't have much turn of foot and the stretch out to 2200mshould suit him providing he's fit enough second up.There has been some money for him so I'll take his fitness on trust here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o off bottom weight here and surely there is better to come from him.Gets a nice run just behind the speed here from gate 4.Best price is 5.50 against my rating of 4.50.
Pendolin worked hard outside the speed the whole way last time.In the circumstances it was a very good effort to stick on doggedly for fourth.She can lead or sit handy from gate 2 here.She is bred to be suited by the extra 300m today and is a mare progressing nicely-this is only here eighth start so she should have more to offer.10.0 on offer with Bet 365 and 9.50 at the TAB.I've got her at 6.0 here
Race 6
I thought the favourite here Happy Galaxy was chronic unders at 3.20 even though there is a chance he'll get a dolly lead.The ex NZ Warhorse now renamed Tougher Than Ever has a live hope on official figures-he's been backed so maybe he'll be fit enough to do himself justice here today.Skytrain was well ridden last time and he's a hope but he is a bit dodgy and you are brave if you back him.Albert The Fat is easily the best horse but he'll surely need the run and is being aimed at longer races.Centennial Park hasn't won since "Adam was a lad" but he goes very well fresh and loves fast ground.He doesn't really fit the profile of horses I like to back but I'm strong about my figures being accurate in this event and I have him at 5.50 and he is available at 7.0 so I'm on at 7.0 as I think the favourite will drift here.
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 2 Sumakaray 2.10 units to win at 2.50 or better (take the 2.90 now)
Warwick Farm Race 3 Laser Flash 1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 5.50 now)
Pendolin 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 9.50 + now)
Race 6 Centennial Park 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better (take the 7.0 now)
Thursday 7 February 2013
Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight
Moonee Valley and Canterbury tonight.Warm/ hot weather at both locations so expect fast Summer ground
I found the Canterbury meeting very uninspiring and I have no suggestions there.
Moonee Valley is a little bit better but I've only found one race which interests me early doors.
Moonee Valley
Race 5
Shamal Wind created a big impression when quickening away from a decent field of fillies at the Flemington Carnival.She resumes here tonight over 955m.On official ratings she has upwards of 6 points in hand of this field.She is a very promising filly but I'd be surprised if she was fully wound up tonight and giving a bit of weight to older mares around Moonee Valley (both her wins have been at galloping tracks Ballarat and Flemington) there is a chance she may be vulnerable.The early quote of 1.30 is a lot different to my figures.Here's my 'tissue" for this race
Shamal Wind 1.77
Lady Antibellum 4.30
Zippa The Rippa 8.0
Chinzia 26.0
Arrogant Cat 41.0
Gold Dust 51.0
note:I missed out Chinzia initially and have updated once I realized my mistake-apologies!
Lady Antebellum is a good Moonee Valley performer.She's had a little freshen up and that has worked before with this mare.A.Forbes who claims 3kg's has won on her here earlier this season.She's not a difficult ride as she always gets back and finishes off hard.These 955m sprints here are usually frantic affairs with a new car the prize for the fastest time in the series so she should get a chance to round them up late.Shamal Wind could simply be a different grade to these but at 1.30 is very easy to oppose.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Lady Antebellum 1.20 units to win at 4.50 or better (have 50% at the 5.00 that is currently available and monitor Betfair for a bit better with the other 50%
I found the Canterbury meeting very uninspiring and I have no suggestions there.
Moonee Valley is a little bit better but I've only found one race which interests me early doors.
Moonee Valley
Race 5
Shamal Wind created a big impression when quickening away from a decent field of fillies at the Flemington Carnival.She resumes here tonight over 955m.On official ratings she has upwards of 6 points in hand of this field.She is a very promising filly but I'd be surprised if she was fully wound up tonight and giving a bit of weight to older mares around Moonee Valley (both her wins have been at galloping tracks Ballarat and Flemington) there is a chance she may be vulnerable.The early quote of 1.30 is a lot different to my figures.Here's my 'tissue" for this race
Shamal Wind 1.77
Lady Antibellum 4.30
Zippa The Rippa 8.0
Chinzia 26.0
Arrogant Cat 41.0
Gold Dust 51.0
note:I missed out Chinzia initially and have updated once I realized my mistake-apologies!
Lady Antebellum is a good Moonee Valley performer.She's had a little freshen up and that has worked before with this mare.A.Forbes who claims 3kg's has won on her here earlier this season.She's not a difficult ride as she always gets back and finishes off hard.These 955m sprints here are usually frantic affairs with a new car the prize for the fastest time in the series so she should get a chance to round them up late.Shamal Wind could simply be a different grade to these but at 1.30 is very easy to oppose.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Lady Antebellum 1.20 units to win at 4.50 or better (have 50% at the 5.00 that is currently available and monitor Betfair for a bit better with the other 50%
Tuesday 5 February 2013
Sandown & Kembla Today
Sandown and a ATC meeting at Kembla to concentrate on today.
Sandown
Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3 with a hot day forecast and no showers currently around on the radar.
Race 3
Significant late jockey change here with C.Williams replacing N.Hall on favourite Vine.Very positive move!Only one set of prices here at the moment and Vine is listed at 2.50.If Vine can reproduce his run here two starts back he'll be very hard to beat.As is customary with horses ridden by Hall he was given far too much to do last time but did look a tad dour in the closing stages there.Gets out to 2100m here today and that should suit him nicely.I don't want to back him at 2.50 I think that's a bit skinny but I'll probably back him around the 3.00 mark if it is available on Betfair.I'm not listing this as an advised bet because I don't see a suitable price available at the moment.My figures have Vine at 2.75 here.
Race 4
Most of the cream here went with a few minutes of prices going up.It's a big problem on Wednesdays and it takes very little to rattle the markets.I managed to get some of the 11.0 Klishina and she's best priced 6.50 now.Red Fez touched 4.60 but she's best priced 4.20 now.It's these two against the field for me here.Both race off a mark of 62 here and in both cases that's too lenient.Red Fez won a Ballarat maiden in great style and the second there has franked the form winning subsequently.She looks sure to be involved here and 4.20 is ok against my rated price of 3.80.
Klishina trounced her rivals on debut and the placegetters there have both placed again in subsequent maidens.She was beaten by pilot error last time- apprentice O.Ay guilty of over confidence and delayed pressing the turbo button until too late.This filly has a great turn of foot and is most definitely Saturday grade.The analyst at Sportsbet/IAS who put up 11.0 this morning hasn't been doing his homework properly.I wish she'd drawn out a bit and see gate 1 here as a potential problem as she gets back and has a relatively inexperienced pilot (O.Ay again) but we do get 3kg's off to help a bit.When I took all that into account I still had her no higher that 4.50 here.
Race 5
They put up 4.20 about Chicarito here and it went in less than two minutes into 3.20 now.Subiaso has shortened also from 5.50 to 4.80.That makes it difficult to advise a bet here as I was looking at taking 3 against the field here- they being those two mentioned plus Grane.Value isn't there now but I think the winner is more likely to come from one of these three than not.
Race 6
A few hopes here.The two with the scope to do much better are Compass and Jamaican Warrior.Jamaican Warrior ran ok in a similar event last time and can certainly do better but has a tricky gate here-he's second pick but I prefer Compass.He has gate 1 here and hopefully he can hold the rail and box seat.He's raced on pace in Sydney but drifted back on his first run for Kane Harris (stable going gangbusters by the way) so lets hope he stays prominent today.Really wound up when he found his stride at Seymour and the horse he beat there Horatio has been going well.He's listed at 6.0 in early markets and I have him at 4.80.
Kembla
I'm dubious about the track rating here of Heavy 8 up from 9 last night.They haven't watered here so Heavy is a bit hard to fathom as it's pretty dry and a warm dry day is forecast.I reckon it'll be slow or dead as the day progresses.Anyway I don't like anything here today from the early listings so nothing at all I can help you with .
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 4 Red Fez 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better (take the 4.20 now)
Klishina 1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 6.50 still available)
Race 6 Compass 1.05 units to win at 5.0 or better (take the 6.0 available now)
Sandown
Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3 with a hot day forecast and no showers currently around on the radar.
Race 3
Significant late jockey change here with C.Williams replacing N.Hall on favourite Vine.Very positive move!Only one set of prices here at the moment and Vine is listed at 2.50.If Vine can reproduce his run here two starts back he'll be very hard to beat.As is customary with horses ridden by Hall he was given far too much to do last time but did look a tad dour in the closing stages there.Gets out to 2100m here today and that should suit him nicely.I don't want to back him at 2.50 I think that's a bit skinny but I'll probably back him around the 3.00 mark if it is available on Betfair.I'm not listing this as an advised bet because I don't see a suitable price available at the moment.My figures have Vine at 2.75 here.
Race 4
Most of the cream here went with a few minutes of prices going up.It's a big problem on Wednesdays and it takes very little to rattle the markets.I managed to get some of the 11.0 Klishina and she's best priced 6.50 now.Red Fez touched 4.60 but she's best priced 4.20 now.It's these two against the field for me here.Both race off a mark of 62 here and in both cases that's too lenient.Red Fez won a Ballarat maiden in great style and the second there has franked the form winning subsequently.She looks sure to be involved here and 4.20 is ok against my rated price of 3.80.
Klishina trounced her rivals on debut and the placegetters there have both placed again in subsequent maidens.She was beaten by pilot error last time- apprentice O.Ay guilty of over confidence and delayed pressing the turbo button until too late.This filly has a great turn of foot and is most definitely Saturday grade.The analyst at Sportsbet/IAS who put up 11.0 this morning hasn't been doing his homework properly.I wish she'd drawn out a bit and see gate 1 here as a potential problem as she gets back and has a relatively inexperienced pilot (O.Ay again) but we do get 3kg's off to help a bit.When I took all that into account I still had her no higher that 4.50 here.
Race 5
They put up 4.20 about Chicarito here and it went in less than two minutes into 3.20 now.Subiaso has shortened also from 5.50 to 4.80.That makes it difficult to advise a bet here as I was looking at taking 3 against the field here- they being those two mentioned plus Grane.Value isn't there now but I think the winner is more likely to come from one of these three than not.
Race 6
A few hopes here.The two with the scope to do much better are Compass and Jamaican Warrior.Jamaican Warrior ran ok in a similar event last time and can certainly do better but has a tricky gate here-he's second pick but I prefer Compass.He has gate 1 here and hopefully he can hold the rail and box seat.He's raced on pace in Sydney but drifted back on his first run for Kane Harris (stable going gangbusters by the way) so lets hope he stays prominent today.Really wound up when he found his stride at Seymour and the horse he beat there Horatio has been going well.He's listed at 6.0 in early markets and I have him at 4.80.
Kembla
I'm dubious about the track rating here of Heavy 8 up from 9 last night.They haven't watered here so Heavy is a bit hard to fathom as it's pretty dry and a warm dry day is forecast.I reckon it'll be slow or dead as the day progresses.Anyway I don't like anything here today from the early listings so nothing at all I can help you with .
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 4 Red Fez 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better (take the 4.20 now)
Klishina 1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 6.50 still available)
Race 6 Compass 1.05 units to win at 5.0 or better (take the 6.0 available now)
Friday 1 February 2013
Caulfield & Rosehill Today
All of you will have experienced weeks when everything seems to be going wrong all at the same time.I've had such a week.I need a couple of winners to cheer me up so here's hoping!
Caulfield is a good 3 with showers forecast.No sign of them on the radar and doubt they will amount to much if they do arrive later.Expect fast Summer ground.
Rosehill is a Heavy 10 after being deluged yesterday.Rain this morning is clearing now but it's going to be tough out there today.
Caulfield
Race 1
Spending is still 3.30 with Sportingbet after being as high as 4.0 yesterday.This looks a useful filly in the making.The barrier is a bit awkward but we have C.Williams aboard to deal with that.I think she'll be sent forward here to sit just behind the speed.1400m should bring about a lot of improvement.A mark of 68 is too lenient and I've got her a 2.60 chance here.
Race 6
Two serious hopes here in The New Boy and Infinite Energy and I'll be a tad surprised if the winner comes from elsewhere.Both ran well last time.The New Boy just failed to land the gamble after kicking clear and looking home.That was a sterling effort and he was stiff going down narrowly.Infinite Energy wasn't beaten far and got home well- the extra 200m won't hurt today.The New Boy can dictate here and I think of the two his was the better effort last time.My figures here are The New Boy 2.80, Infinite Energy 3.40.Early market have then both around 3.30 (The New Boy is 3.50 with TAB Sportsbet)
Rosehill
Race 4
Disciple is early favourite here at 2.40.That's very short for a horse 4 weeks between runs with 58kg's on his back.He's certainly an improved horse this prep but will need to carry that improvement on to score again here today.He's 2 points up in the ratings from the mark he was beaten off last time.The last time he and Fedde met Disciple gave him 0.5kg's and finished just behind him.That was on wet ground.Today he has to give Fedde 6kg's after Fedde's riders 3kg claim is taken into account.Fedde does get back and there is no guarantee of a strong tempo here but he's around 10.00 and thats simply too big.I have him a 6.50 chance.Burbero is improving and Zedlion was good again last week.
Race 7
She's Clean won nicely last time but that was a suss race in my opinion and this is far more testing.After the claim she still has to cart 58kg's through the mud, is 4 points higher in the ratings than last time and has opposition that looks a fair bit more robust than she beat a fortnight ago.2.70 is way too short.Matignon is second best around 3.40 and that's about right.The one that stands out value wise is Magnolia Lane who is best suited by wet conditions.She's been going pretty well on the dry tracks but it will be no surprise to see her find a couple of lengths in today's mud.6.00 is my rated price yet Luxbet have her at 11.0
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 1 Spending 1.90 units to win at 2.80 or better (take the 3.30 with Sportingbet)
Race 6 The New Boy 1.75 units to win at 3.0 or better (take the 3.50 with TAB)
Rosehill Race 4 Fedde 0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (shop on Betfair look for 11.0 +)
Race 7 Magnolia Lane 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 11.0 at Luxbet)
Caulfield is a good 3 with showers forecast.No sign of them on the radar and doubt they will amount to much if they do arrive later.Expect fast Summer ground.
Rosehill is a Heavy 10 after being deluged yesterday.Rain this morning is clearing now but it's going to be tough out there today.
Caulfield
Race 1
Spending is still 3.30 with Sportingbet after being as high as 4.0 yesterday.This looks a useful filly in the making.The barrier is a bit awkward but we have C.Williams aboard to deal with that.I think she'll be sent forward here to sit just behind the speed.1400m should bring about a lot of improvement.A mark of 68 is too lenient and I've got her a 2.60 chance here.
Race 6
Two serious hopes here in The New Boy and Infinite Energy and I'll be a tad surprised if the winner comes from elsewhere.Both ran well last time.The New Boy just failed to land the gamble after kicking clear and looking home.That was a sterling effort and he was stiff going down narrowly.Infinite Energy wasn't beaten far and got home well- the extra 200m won't hurt today.The New Boy can dictate here and I think of the two his was the better effort last time.My figures here are The New Boy 2.80, Infinite Energy 3.40.Early market have then both around 3.30 (The New Boy is 3.50 with TAB Sportsbet)
Rosehill
Race 4
Disciple is early favourite here at 2.40.That's very short for a horse 4 weeks between runs with 58kg's on his back.He's certainly an improved horse this prep but will need to carry that improvement on to score again here today.He's 2 points up in the ratings from the mark he was beaten off last time.The last time he and Fedde met Disciple gave him 0.5kg's and finished just behind him.That was on wet ground.Today he has to give Fedde 6kg's after Fedde's riders 3kg claim is taken into account.Fedde does get back and there is no guarantee of a strong tempo here but he's around 10.00 and thats simply too big.I have him a 6.50 chance.Burbero is improving and Zedlion was good again last week.
Race 7
She's Clean won nicely last time but that was a suss race in my opinion and this is far more testing.After the claim she still has to cart 58kg's through the mud, is 4 points higher in the ratings than last time and has opposition that looks a fair bit more robust than she beat a fortnight ago.2.70 is way too short.Matignon is second best around 3.40 and that's about right.The one that stands out value wise is Magnolia Lane who is best suited by wet conditions.She's been going pretty well on the dry tracks but it will be no surprise to see her find a couple of lengths in today's mud.6.00 is my rated price yet Luxbet have her at 11.0
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 1 Spending 1.90 units to win at 2.80 or better (take the 3.30 with Sportingbet)
Race 6 The New Boy 1.75 units to win at 3.0 or better (take the 3.50 with TAB)
Rosehill Race 4 Fedde 0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (shop on Betfair look for 11.0 +)
Race 7 Magnolia Lane 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 11.0 at Luxbet)
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