1000 Guineas day at Caulfield and the track is rated a Dead 4 but it's warm and very windy so that will soon upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is dry and warm and is a Good 3.How big a factor the wind is at Caulfield and whether it suits leaders or closers is going to be interesting.
There are no early bets at Warwick Farm and I can't say I'm too fussed about backing anything there today.If markets change and do get involved I'll send details via Twitter.
Caulfield
Race 1
This is a pin job.Nothing surprises here.
Race 2
I have Junoob on top here but thought the early quotes around 4.0 were about right.3.30 now looks skinny.Thought Corregio was too short too.Mr Jazz has a hope is he can run the trip but it's too big an "if" to have me interested in him.Not backing anything here.
Race 3
Pace is a questionable here.Specter was terrific on his reappearance run.He's entitled to be favourite and draws well to be handy.Misty Eyes looks well treated on a mark of 78.When he won in Adelaide in May he gave Lady Dynamo 1.5kg's and beat her 0.5 length.She's an 85 rater now so he's nicely treated.I sent him through as an early bet on Twitter this morning.Hopefully he can be handier from a decent gateMay decide to back or save on Specter too here-will advise later
Advised Bet: Misty Eyes 0.85 units at 6.50 or better.7.50 with Sportingbet/Centrebet looks good value.Centrebet have a money back deal if you are beaten by the fav.May be more here via Twitter later.
Race 4
Rhythm To Spare was awful last time.If he finds his form again he's a live chance but he does have an awkward gate.Hosting is an improving horse and he's on top here.Gate 3 looks decent at first but I am worried about him getting bailed up on the rail.I've got him at 4.0 here so 4.60 Bet 365 looks tempting as I doubt he'll get much bigger.I haven't had a bet yet-could only back Hosting but but haven't committed yet.
Race 5
Electric Fusion is the obvious and sat around 5.50 most of the morning but has now been backed into 5.0 (still 5.25 with Bet 365).I'm bemused why they have taken the blinkers off him today.He settled well last time and did everything right.This yard has me foxed on plenty off occasions and is very tricky to read-confused!Ominous pulled like crazy on his Aussie debut and he'll be a good stayer if he learns to settle-gets a noseroll to help him today.
Race 6
Guelph is hard to oppose and also hard to back at 1.40.Gregers and May's dream the obvious alternatives.Not betting here
Race 7
Zonza seems a stand out to me.Her run behind Moriarty in Sydney last May looks outstanding form here.She's won her comeback race in N.Z. She goes forward and probably gets to control this race.I have her 3.0 max here but she is 4.40 and bigger the totes so I'm worried there is a negative that I am unaware of.I've had something at 4.40 and will monitor the betting here
Advised Bet: Zonza 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 4.40 for 30% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the rest
Race 8
Good sprint to finish but I can't really find an angle in here.Betting looks fairly accurate.Not betting here
No comments:
Post a Comment