A very quiet month bets wise particularly so with the Flemington Carnival kicking off the month.
The number of bets I've had on Australian racing this year is down considerably on last year and that's because my focus has moved much more on to the "lay' side of the exchange.It's been a gradual progression and it's taken me a while to get my exposure and money management to where I'm comfortable but it's starting to work very well for me now.There are big frustrations some days but it's betting so of course it's going to challenge you on numerous occasions.
I'll try to get a blog out over the next few days explaining some of the strategies I use on Betfair when looking to lay one.Meanwhile here is a blog from earlier in the year http://maxblakey.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/january-round-up-laying-horses.html.The blog I'll do soon will expand on this and looks at strategies that I now use to improve profitibility.
Here are the results for November and a nice winner yesterday puts the blog in black for the month.
UK and Overseas
No bets this month
Australia
Blog Bets advised in 10 races -2 winners
Stakes 13.90
Returns 11.94
LOSS 1.96 units
Tweets Bets advised in 9 races -2 winners
Stakes 7.0
Returns 14.98
PROFIT 7.98 units
Total for month PROFIT 6.02 units
Saturday 30 November 2013
Friday 29 November 2013
Caulfield & Rosehill Today
Caulfield is a Dead 4 and should upgrade.Rosehill is a Dead 5 with showers around at the moment but likely to die out.Monitor conditions there.
No analysis today as I don't have time to type it.No early bets but a chance of a speculative play or two through the afternoon.Details sent via Twitter.
Sorry it's brief today but had a lot of family stuff this morning
No analysis today as I don't have time to type it.No early bets but a chance of a speculative play or two through the afternoon.Details sent via Twitter.
Sorry it's brief today but had a lot of family stuff this morning
Thursday 28 November 2013
Moonee Valley Tonight
Good 3 posted at Moonee Valley.Light infrequent showers around Melbourne but nothing much to worry about.
Race 1
Keen that Kiss Me Ketup is the one to beat here.a lack of obvious pace is a bit of a worry as she was a bit keen early in the race when winning at Geelong.Go Again failed to take advantage of a soft opportunity at Cranbourne a couple of starts back and I'd be wary of backing her until she shows something more positive.Jessy Belle was suited by plenty of early pace in her last two starts and this is significantly harder.Kiss me Ketup was over 4.0 when betting opened and is now best priced 3.60.I'm already on but she is still good value on my figures which have her at 3.0
Advised Bet: Kiss Me Ketup 1.65 units at 3.10 or better-take the 3.60 now
That's the only race I've bet into early and generally it looks a trappy card.If I'm playing on anything else I'll send details via Twitter
Race 1
Keen that Kiss Me Ketup is the one to beat here.a lack of obvious pace is a bit of a worry as she was a bit keen early in the race when winning at Geelong.Go Again failed to take advantage of a soft opportunity at Cranbourne a couple of starts back and I'd be wary of backing her until she shows something more positive.Jessy Belle was suited by plenty of early pace in her last two starts and this is significantly harder.Kiss me Ketup was over 4.0 when betting opened and is now best priced 3.60.I'm already on but she is still good value on my figures which have her at 3.0
Advised Bet: Kiss Me Ketup 1.65 units at 3.10 or better-take the 3.60 now
That's the only race I've bet into early and generally it looks a trappy card.If I'm playing on anything else I'll send details via Twitter
Tuesday 26 November 2013
Bendigo & Canterbury Today & Last Week's Round Up
No joy last week off admittedly very little action.3 bets (blog and tweets) and no winners for a loss of 3.45 units.
Canterbury is a dead 4 and will probably get to a Good 3 as it's a fine warm day.No bets there at this stage and unlikely I'll be betting there today.
Bendigo is a Dead 4 but it's forecast dry and hot so an upgrade seems inevitable unless the track has been overwatered.
Bendigo
Race 5
This is a very difficult race to get a handle on.It's full of horses you naturally want to oppose but obviously one has to win.Melting Moments who can race on pace is favourite at around 3.0.She finished well over 1200m at Kyneton last time but is far from certain to run 1400m.She's probably entitled to be around the head of the market but 3.0 is far too short and at < 4.0 I'll be opposing.
Race 6
Oltre Finito was very impressive last prep and finished up a comfortable winner at a Sandown Midweek RB 72.Similar grade today and if he returns in the same form then obviously very hard to beat.Surprised they haven't gone straight to Saturday grade with him though considering how impressive he was last prep.Early quotes around 3.20 seemed surprisingly tempting and he's into 2.50.Bit wary here with this favourite.Edgewood,Little Bro and to a lesser extent Union Gap are other possibilities.
Race 7
Wimba produced a much better effort last time when just going down to the progressive Royal Island.He's lightly raced so he's entitled to get better but that was far better than he's shown before and it was on wet ground.He's the leader here so if he runs to that level again he'll be hard to toss.Just Reminiscing is the alternative-Linda Meech has the job of ensuring that Wimba doesn't get too much of a start on her.Chilli Beach is a query at 1600m.Not sure here
Race 8
There are I think only three hopes here.Cool Attraction ran away with a very moderate race at Donald last time.She's got young Thornton's 4kg claim again and is suited by the mile.She's got potential to do better so I can't entirely dismiss here here.She's Pretentious is a solid reliable type and she was clear second best last time after conceeding first run.Her problem is her get back run on style and the lack of obvious pace in this race.Galway Warrior ran away with a maiden here at the last meeting.She'll track the pace from a good gate and is clearly the most likely.2.50 is marginal value against my 2.35.
If I'm playing today I'll send details via twitter
Canterbury is a dead 4 and will probably get to a Good 3 as it's a fine warm day.No bets there at this stage and unlikely I'll be betting there today.
Bendigo is a Dead 4 but it's forecast dry and hot so an upgrade seems inevitable unless the track has been overwatered.
Bendigo
Race 5
This is a very difficult race to get a handle on.It's full of horses you naturally want to oppose but obviously one has to win.Melting Moments who can race on pace is favourite at around 3.0.She finished well over 1200m at Kyneton last time but is far from certain to run 1400m.She's probably entitled to be around the head of the market but 3.0 is far too short and at < 4.0 I'll be opposing.
Race 6
Oltre Finito was very impressive last prep and finished up a comfortable winner at a Sandown Midweek RB 72.Similar grade today and if he returns in the same form then obviously very hard to beat.Surprised they haven't gone straight to Saturday grade with him though considering how impressive he was last prep.Early quotes around 3.20 seemed surprisingly tempting and he's into 2.50.Bit wary here with this favourite.Edgewood,Little Bro and to a lesser extent Union Gap are other possibilities.
Race 7
Wimba produced a much better effort last time when just going down to the progressive Royal Island.He's lightly raced so he's entitled to get better but that was far better than he's shown before and it was on wet ground.He's the leader here so if he runs to that level again he'll be hard to toss.Just Reminiscing is the alternative-Linda Meech has the job of ensuring that Wimba doesn't get too much of a start on her.Chilli Beach is a query at 1600m.Not sure here
Race 8
There are I think only three hopes here.Cool Attraction ran away with a very moderate race at Donald last time.She's got young Thornton's 4kg claim again and is suited by the mile.She's got potential to do better so I can't entirely dismiss here here.She's Pretentious is a solid reliable type and she was clear second best last time after conceeding first run.Her problem is her get back run on style and the lack of obvious pace in this race.Galway Warrior ran away with a maiden here at the last meeting.She'll track the pace from a good gate and is clearly the most likely.2.50 is marginal value against my 2.35.
If I'm playing today I'll send details via twitter
Friday 22 November 2013
Saturday's Racing
Perth racing has it's big day today with the Railway and Winterbottom Stakes both at G1.It's a Good fast track at Ascot and the weather is fine and dry.
The Railway Stakes is a very good race this year but not hard to solve punting wise.I think the winner will come from the interstate challengers but really I'm not overly keen on betting on this race.
The Winterbottom is Buffering's race to lose really.He's the clear form pick.Local champion Barakey has at least two lengths to find to be able to beat Buffering at his best.That said I wouldn't be rushing in to take 2.20 about a horse after a hard campaign and a long trip across Australia to the West.
Sydney race on the Kensington circuit so that pre warns you that the card might not be all that flash.Some of the Saturday meeting they serve up in Sydney outside the Spring and Autumn are so substandard it's an embarrassment.It's a Dead 5 there and the forecast rain has just arrived around Sydney.Potentially there could be plenty of rain so it's guesswork as to what conditions will prevail come mid afternoon.I doubt I'll do anything there (backing wise) but if I do I'll send details via Twitter.
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and on the cusp of a Good 3 but there is rain around and whilst it's patchy some of it is quite heavy and it looks like it will persist.Depends how much hits the track-monitor.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
With Mokoro scratched this ought to be easier to solve but it isn't.Not keen on this race at all
Race 2
Thubiaan and Jumping Jack Cash both have 3kg claimers and that probably makes it very hard for the others.Of the two I marginally prefer Thubiaan but surprisingly he's very easy to back (out to 6.0 now with Bet 365).I may play here but I'm not yet committed
Race 3
This race is very ground dependent.If there is rain then the more the better for Double Dee who revelled in the wet conditions when bolting up at Ballarat-she's a rapidly improving mare and is a deserved favourite here.If it stays dry I Thorn Park is a very live hope and at around 7/8.00 i think I would back here if it's a genuinely dry track.Nautical and Chateau Latour are the other main players here.
Race 4
Wrong favourite here.Xavi is preffered in the Market to Lord Durante but I think they should be the other way around.Three runs ago Xavi went off 2.60 around here and was well beaten (there were excuses) racing off a mark of 78.He's up to 82 after a fine effort at Flemington.Lord Durante also ran very well over the Flemington Carnival and was only run down late.I think of the two respective races at Flemington Lord Durante's was marginally the better effort.He should find the lead here today and he's best when he gets left alone in front.He's hard a long campaign and that may be a negative but he does seem very tough and genuine.I have LD at 3.40 and Xavi at 3.80
Advised Bet: Lord Durante 1.50 units at 3.60 or better-take the 4.20 on offer now
Race 5
Should be good pace on here.Planet Voyage is favourite and Argee McLaren next best.As with the previous race I have them marginally the other way around with Argee at 3.70 and Planet V at 3.80.Argee has been a stready drifter so I won't rush in yet but I'll monitor on Betfair.
Advised Bet: Argee McLaren 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 6
Lot's of chances and very open-no strong opinions here
Race 7
Lot's of hopes and no strong opinions here
Race 8
Not overly keen on this race-very unlikely I'll play here
The Railway Stakes is a very good race this year but not hard to solve punting wise.I think the winner will come from the interstate challengers but really I'm not overly keen on betting on this race.
The Winterbottom is Buffering's race to lose really.He's the clear form pick.Local champion Barakey has at least two lengths to find to be able to beat Buffering at his best.That said I wouldn't be rushing in to take 2.20 about a horse after a hard campaign and a long trip across Australia to the West.
Sydney race on the Kensington circuit so that pre warns you that the card might not be all that flash.Some of the Saturday meeting they serve up in Sydney outside the Spring and Autumn are so substandard it's an embarrassment.It's a Dead 5 there and the forecast rain has just arrived around Sydney.Potentially there could be plenty of rain so it's guesswork as to what conditions will prevail come mid afternoon.I doubt I'll do anything there (backing wise) but if I do I'll send details via Twitter.
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 and on the cusp of a Good 3 but there is rain around and whilst it's patchy some of it is quite heavy and it looks like it will persist.Depends how much hits the track-monitor.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
With Mokoro scratched this ought to be easier to solve but it isn't.Not keen on this race at all
Race 2
Thubiaan and Jumping Jack Cash both have 3kg claimers and that probably makes it very hard for the others.Of the two I marginally prefer Thubiaan but surprisingly he's very easy to back (out to 6.0 now with Bet 365).I may play here but I'm not yet committed
Race 3
This race is very ground dependent.If there is rain then the more the better for Double Dee who revelled in the wet conditions when bolting up at Ballarat-she's a rapidly improving mare and is a deserved favourite here.If it stays dry I Thorn Park is a very live hope and at around 7/8.00 i think I would back here if it's a genuinely dry track.Nautical and Chateau Latour are the other main players here.
Race 4
Wrong favourite here.Xavi is preffered in the Market to Lord Durante but I think they should be the other way around.Three runs ago Xavi went off 2.60 around here and was well beaten (there were excuses) racing off a mark of 78.He's up to 82 after a fine effort at Flemington.Lord Durante also ran very well over the Flemington Carnival and was only run down late.I think of the two respective races at Flemington Lord Durante's was marginally the better effort.He should find the lead here today and he's best when he gets left alone in front.He's hard a long campaign and that may be a negative but he does seem very tough and genuine.I have LD at 3.40 and Xavi at 3.80
Advised Bet: Lord Durante 1.50 units at 3.60 or better-take the 4.20 on offer now
Race 5
Should be good pace on here.Planet Voyage is favourite and Argee McLaren next best.As with the previous race I have them marginally the other way around with Argee at 3.70 and Planet V at 3.80.Argee has been a stready drifter so I won't rush in yet but I'll monitor on Betfair.
Advised Bet: Argee McLaren 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 6
Lot's of chances and very open-no strong opinions here
Race 7
Lot's of hopes and no strong opinions here
Race 8
Not overly keen on this race-very unlikely I'll play here
Tuesday 19 November 2013
Last Week's Round Up & Sale & Canterbury Today
Very quiet last week.Caught up on a few outstanding things unrelated to the racing.Just one bet advised all week,Cleverdude on Friday evening who was run down late so a LOSS of 2 units for the week.
Sale today is a Good 3 and it's dry there so expect fast ground.Canterbury is posted a Heavy 8 but it can dry out very quickly.No surprise to see this track get up to a Slow 6 or even better if it misses the few light rain showers that are possible.Probably won't play at Canterbury but I'll "tweet" the details if I do.
Sale
Race 1
Kievann has the most solid form.Girl In Flight won a modest maiden at Pakenham in very good style.Hard to be sure between these two.Both of these are around 2.60 which looks pretty close to the mark By the Grace is around 4.20 which looks far too short.
Race 5
Innocent Hero leads and will be very hard to run down.Odds on with most books but 2.0 with Bet 365.I need a bit more than that to consider backing it but wouldn't be opposing at current odds
Race 6
Sunset in Venice was a very strong winner of a modest maiden at Mornington.She's got plenty of upside but this is much tougher and at around 4.50 is plenty short enough.Young Girl (much better last time),Sheza A Single Girl (right in this if shows her best form) and both Spirit Of Soul and Tyanna resume and drop in grade.Tricky race
Race 7
Spelldancer will lead and that usually sets up a decent tempo.Dance For Cash has been racing really well this Spring but if the pace is on here she'll be vulnerable late as I think she's better at shorter.Royal Island is promising but made heavy weather of winning last week and did plenty wrong there being very wayward.Faster ground may help him but 3.60 looks far too short.Waterford Hill was OK resuming running on late but overall I think he needs further to show is best and 4.60 looks very skinny.Aurum Spirit will be well suited if they do run along here and is drawn to get a nice trail just off the pace.He's been a steady improver and although he'll be stretching out to further trips he's a very live hope here.His comeback effort at Cranbourne was very good and I have him priced at 6.0 here and 9.50 is on offer.
Advised Bet; Aurum Spirit 0.90 units at 6.50 or better-take the 9.50 with Sportsbet/IAS
Race 8
Tombola got a soft lead when winning last time at Mornington and may do so again here.The extra trip suits and whilst this a harder race I think he'll go well.Duplicity Jones won a city maiden before spelling and resumes after having a solid hitout in a recent 1550m trial whilst Rockfest won a standard maiden here last time.Maiden winners going straight into BM 70 races are not usually my go but both of these are likely to be highly competitive here.These three horses all sit around the 8.0 mark making them collectively around 2.66 which has me tempted but not yet committed.Early favourite here is Prince Jester around 3.50 which is at least three points less than the price I think he should be.If I play here I'll tweet.
Sale today is a Good 3 and it's dry there so expect fast ground.Canterbury is posted a Heavy 8 but it can dry out very quickly.No surprise to see this track get up to a Slow 6 or even better if it misses the few light rain showers that are possible.Probably won't play at Canterbury but I'll "tweet" the details if I do.
Sale
Race 1
Kievann has the most solid form.Girl In Flight won a modest maiden at Pakenham in very good style.Hard to be sure between these two.Both of these are around 2.60 which looks pretty close to the mark By the Grace is around 4.20 which looks far too short.
Race 5
Innocent Hero leads and will be very hard to run down.Odds on with most books but 2.0 with Bet 365.I need a bit more than that to consider backing it but wouldn't be opposing at current odds
Race 6
Sunset in Venice was a very strong winner of a modest maiden at Mornington.She's got plenty of upside but this is much tougher and at around 4.50 is plenty short enough.Young Girl (much better last time),Sheza A Single Girl (right in this if shows her best form) and both Spirit Of Soul and Tyanna resume and drop in grade.Tricky race
Race 7
Spelldancer will lead and that usually sets up a decent tempo.Dance For Cash has been racing really well this Spring but if the pace is on here she'll be vulnerable late as I think she's better at shorter.Royal Island is promising but made heavy weather of winning last week and did plenty wrong there being very wayward.Faster ground may help him but 3.60 looks far too short.Waterford Hill was OK resuming running on late but overall I think he needs further to show is best and 4.60 looks very skinny.Aurum Spirit will be well suited if they do run along here and is drawn to get a nice trail just off the pace.He's been a steady improver and although he'll be stretching out to further trips he's a very live hope here.His comeback effort at Cranbourne was very good and I have him priced at 6.0 here and 9.50 is on offer.
Advised Bet; Aurum Spirit 0.90 units at 6.50 or better-take the 9.50 with Sportsbet/IAS
Race 8
Tombola got a soft lead when winning last time at Mornington and may do so again here.The extra trip suits and whilst this a harder race I think he'll go well.Duplicity Jones won a city maiden before spelling and resumes after having a solid hitout in a recent 1550m trial whilst Rockfest won a standard maiden here last time.Maiden winners going straight into BM 70 races are not usually my go but both of these are likely to be highly competitive here.These three horses all sit around the 8.0 mark making them collectively around 2.66 which has me tempted but not yet committed.Early favourite here is Prince Jester around 3.50 which is at least three points less than the price I think he should be.If I play here I'll tweet.
Friday 15 November 2013
Caulfield & Rosehill Today
Last day of Melbourne's Spring Carnival at Caulfield (transferred from Sandown which is closed for renervations).Track is posted a Dead 4 and there is a hint it may be a tad slower than that to begin with.Dry day so normally you'd expect an upgrade.Monitor.
Rosehill is a Dead 5 and there are some very heavy showers around which will have a serious impact on conditions if they hit.Monitor.
With the uncertainty regarding Rosehill there is little point in going off early there as at this stage it's pure guesswork as to the conditions that will prevail as the day wears on.
At Caulfield the early races are very obvious to sort and as a result the markets are very tight to my figures.I think Caravan Rolls On is very hard to beat in Race 2 IF it's a genuinely dry track.S.Hyland reported this morning that the track had "plenty of give in it".Until Race 8 the markets otherwise are offering little varience to what I have at least on anything I might be tempted to back.
Race 8 has Platelet as a well backed favourite at around 3.30 which looks plenty short enough now.I thought around 4.20 was the mark for her.There are a few hopes here but overall it's not a race I'm comfortable with.
In Race 9 I thought the first two in betting were both definite unders.Floria seems well treated but I think 1400m is her best trip and 2.80 looks woeful unders.>4.0 surely.Likewise Wistful who on official ratings has to find 17 points to be competitive here.That official rating was raised by 15 points after her easy win at Flemington.So she needs 32 points of improvement from her October win in Sydney in a NMW event.That Flemington race despite being at the Carnival wasn't a very strong race and she's too short at 6.0-has a poor gate too.
Markets will fluctuate and opportunities may present later but no bets at this stage.If I'm playing details sent via twitter as early as possible.
Rosehill is a Dead 5 and there are some very heavy showers around which will have a serious impact on conditions if they hit.Monitor.
With the uncertainty regarding Rosehill there is little point in going off early there as at this stage it's pure guesswork as to the conditions that will prevail as the day wears on.
At Caulfield the early races are very obvious to sort and as a result the markets are very tight to my figures.I think Caravan Rolls On is very hard to beat in Race 2 IF it's a genuinely dry track.S.Hyland reported this morning that the track had "plenty of give in it".Until Race 8 the markets otherwise are offering little varience to what I have at least on anything I might be tempted to back.
Race 8 has Platelet as a well backed favourite at around 3.30 which looks plenty short enough now.I thought around 4.20 was the mark for her.There are a few hopes here but overall it's not a race I'm comfortable with.
In Race 9 I thought the first two in betting were both definite unders.Floria seems well treated but I think 1400m is her best trip and 2.80 looks woeful unders.>4.0 surely.Likewise Wistful who on official ratings has to find 17 points to be competitive here.That official rating was raised by 15 points after her easy win at Flemington.So she needs 32 points of improvement from her October win in Sydney in a NMW event.That Flemington race despite being at the Carnival wasn't a very strong race and she's too short at 6.0-has a poor gate too.
Markets will fluctuate and opportunities may present later but no bets at this stage.If I'm playing details sent via twitter as early as possible.
Thursday 14 November 2013
Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4.it's dry and any rain if it comes will be minimal so it probably upgrades to a Good 3.Canterbury is a Dead 4.There are heavy thundery showers around Sydney at the moment but they are patchy.If the track gets hit then it will probably end up wet but if they miss it will upgrade to Good 3.Monitor.
A handful of possibilities tonight but only one bet at early prices and unfortunately the best odds have gone now.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
Cleverdude has had a few weeks off missing the big guns through the carnival.He's very good fresh,is two from two over this track and distance,has the plum gate for a speed horse in 1 and get's young Maloney taking off 3kg.He's suited at the weight here and frankly is much better than these.I have him a 2.50 chance and they bet > 4.0 earlier in the day amazingly.Still 3.50 with Luxbet and that's great value still
Advised Bet: Cleverdude 2 units at 2.75 or better-take the 3.50 now
Anymore tonight sent via Twitter
A handful of possibilities tonight but only one bet at early prices and unfortunately the best odds have gone now.
Moonee Valley
Race 1
Cleverdude has had a few weeks off missing the big guns through the carnival.He's very good fresh,is two from two over this track and distance,has the plum gate for a speed horse in 1 and get's young Maloney taking off 3kg.He's suited at the weight here and frankly is much better than these.I have him a 2.50 chance and they bet > 4.0 earlier in the day amazingly.Still 3.50 with Luxbet and that's great value still
Advised Bet: Cleverdude 2 units at 2.75 or better-take the 3.50 now
Anymore tonight sent via Twitter
Tuesday 12 November 2013
Last Weeks Round Up and Ballarat & Warwick Farm Today
I missed the boat as far as this year's Spring Carnival was concerned and although there is a very modest profit so far in November it's definitely a case of what might have been.As a result I was feeling a bit deflated through Sunday and Monday particularly as some very good judges who's opinions I greatly respect had excellent results last week.That's it now for really good racing this year apart from a few odd days (this Saturday at Caulfield,a couple of decent days in Perth and the Hong Kong meeting next month) otherwise it's the usual Summer offering of plenty of racing but not much quality.
Here's last weeks results:
Blog Bets in 4 races-1 winner
Stakes 5.00
Returns 6.00
Profit 1.00 unit
Tweets Bets advised in 5 races-1 winner
Stakes 3.95
Returns 5.98
Profit 2.03 units
Overall for week PROFIT 3.03 units
Ballarat has a Dead 4 posted which I'm not overly confident about and there is a possibility of rain.Warwick Farm is a Heavy 8 but it's warm and sunny so it probably upgrades as the afternoon wears on.There is a strong possibility of a bet in Race 7 at Ballarat and if I'm playing I'll send a "tweet" 10mins or more before off time.Other races there I'll be laying not backing.Warwick Farm has been difficult with the Heavy and the likelihood of it drying out.Again if I'm playing I'll send details via Twitter
Here's last weeks results:
Blog Bets in 4 races-1 winner
Stakes 5.00
Returns 6.00
Profit 1.00 unit
Tweets Bets advised in 5 races-1 winner
Stakes 3.95
Returns 5.98
Profit 2.03 units
Overall for week PROFIT 3.03 units
Ballarat has a Dead 4 posted which I'm not overly confident about and there is a possibility of rain.Warwick Farm is a Heavy 8 but it's warm and sunny so it probably upgrades as the afternoon wears on.There is a strong possibility of a bet in Race 7 at Ballarat and if I'm playing I'll send a "tweet" 10mins or more before off time.Other races there I'll be laying not backing.Warwick Farm has been difficult with the Heavy and the likelihood of it drying out.Again if I'm playing I'll send details via Twitter
Friday 8 November 2013
Flemington Carnival-final Day -Part Two
Looking at the radar there is still rain around Flemington and it seems certain to get more as the afternoon progresses.It does drain very well though so a light shower or two probably won't make much difference.Tricky to be confident about what's likely to happen weather wise.
Randwick is a Good 3 and a dry day there at the moment but thundery showers are forecast for late afternoon.All this weather uncertainty makes it pointless going off early about any thing.Any bets today will be sent via twitter
Flemington
Race 7
This is a cracking race but it's very difficult to identify any value about the ones I would be interested in backing.I'll pass here at this stage.
Race 8
Forgotten Voice will be a different proposition to Geelong last time if it's a genuine Dead 4 by this time.Really he wants it rattling fast though so any moisture will disadvantage him.Sertorius is an admirable racehorse and if he can run out 2800m he be involved.Precedence bounced back last time and his Flemington form is very good.Kellini was poor last week but he could back bounce here and there are other possibilities here too.Overall I think Sertorius is entitled to be favourite.I'm not committed to anything here at the moment.
Race 9
Disciple has improved with each preperation and I expect that improvement to continue. He'll need a career best to win this but I have him on top.Karacatis ran very well last Saturday and is a very live hope if he can run a strong 1400m but it's a big 'if'.Henwood is promising,Longport has very good form around high quality mares and the Darley runners have to be considered.Not committed at the moment
Will Tweet if I'm betting anywhere
Randwick is a Good 3 and a dry day there at the moment but thundery showers are forecast for late afternoon.All this weather uncertainty makes it pointless going off early about any thing.Any bets today will be sent via twitter
Flemington
Race 7
This is a cracking race but it's very difficult to identify any value about the ones I would be interested in backing.I'll pass here at this stage.
Race 8
Forgotten Voice will be a different proposition to Geelong last time if it's a genuine Dead 4 by this time.Really he wants it rattling fast though so any moisture will disadvantage him.Sertorius is an admirable racehorse and if he can run out 2800m he be involved.Precedence bounced back last time and his Flemington form is very good.Kellini was poor last week but he could back bounce here and there are other possibilities here too.Overall I think Sertorius is entitled to be favourite.I'm not committed to anything here at the moment.
Race 9
Disciple has improved with each preperation and I expect that improvement to continue. He'll need a career best to win this but I have him on top.Karacatis ran very well last Saturday and is a very live hope if he can run a strong 1400m but it's a big 'if'.Henwood is promising,Longport has very good form around high quality mares and the Darley runners have to be considered.Not committed at the moment
Will Tweet if I'm betting anywhere
Flemington Carnival-Final Day Part One
I've had no internet for 3 hours this morning so I'm a bit behind with everything.I'll do the blog in two parts today.Part two covering later races will be upafter race 3 at Flemington and I'll include anything for Randwick in that part.
Flemington is a Dead 4 and there is rain around.Doubt there will be an upgrade and if enough rain hits the track it could be a Dead 5 at some stage.That would alter my thinking on a few runners here today so monitoring conditions is vital.
Race 1
No opinion
Race 2
This is a tight race although I think that the market is right having Sysmo,Proverb and Electric fusion at the head of things.No strong opinion here
Race 3
Sharalan is hard to oppose after an eye catching run last time.2.50 is what I have him rated here and that's around the general quote.I'm not that keen backing get back horses at short odds unless I no there is definitely plenty of speed on up front.No such guarantees here.Pass
Race 4
Barbed in fully entitled to be favourite here but I found this a most difficult race to price up with any confidence.I'm not getting involved here.
Race 5
Lake Sententia is a worthy favourite after a big run when very wide at Moonee Valley last time.The step up in trip will suit and she'll be around the money granted even luck in running.I had her at 4.20 here so the 3.80 on offer doesn't tempt me although if it were a Dead 5 then I'd probably promote her a bit.Zonza on dry ground would be my bet here but I'm not playing if it gets any wetter
Race 6
Thought this was a bit more open than the market suggest.Lucky Nine only has form really on dry although it was officially Dead 4 when he ran second to Buffering at the Valley.Moment Of Change was held up behind both of them there and would have given both plenty to think about if he'd have got a good crack at them ditto Rebel Dane.I think it should be 5.0/5.50 the field here.I'm monitoring the track here before committing
Back with the rest later
Flemington is a Dead 4 and there is rain around.Doubt there will be an upgrade and if enough rain hits the track it could be a Dead 5 at some stage.That would alter my thinking on a few runners here today so monitoring conditions is vital.
Race 1
No opinion
Race 2
This is a tight race although I think that the market is right having Sysmo,Proverb and Electric fusion at the head of things.No strong opinion here
Race 3
Sharalan is hard to oppose after an eye catching run last time.2.50 is what I have him rated here and that's around the general quote.I'm not that keen backing get back horses at short odds unless I no there is definitely plenty of speed on up front.No such guarantees here.Pass
Race 4
Barbed in fully entitled to be favourite here but I found this a most difficult race to price up with any confidence.I'm not getting involved here.
Race 5
Lake Sententia is a worthy favourite after a big run when very wide at Moonee Valley last time.The step up in trip will suit and she'll be around the money granted even luck in running.I had her at 4.20 here so the 3.80 on offer doesn't tempt me although if it were a Dead 5 then I'd probably promote her a bit.Zonza on dry ground would be my bet here but I'm not playing if it gets any wetter
Race 6
Thought this was a bit more open than the market suggest.Lucky Nine only has form really on dry although it was officially Dead 4 when he ran second to Buffering at the Valley.Moment Of Change was held up behind both of them there and would have given both plenty to think about if he'd have got a good crack at them ditto Rebel Dane.I think it should be 5.0/5.50 the field here.I'm monitoring the track here before committing
Back with the rest later
Wednesday 6 November 2013
Flemington Carnival-Oaks Day
Flemington is posted a Dead 4 but will quickly upgrade to a Good 3.There is a slight chance of some rain but it's likely to be light if it does come.Sydney horses have had a good Carnival so far and whilst that trend may continue there is the likelihood that they may be overbet over the remaining couple of days.There is evidence of this in some of the early quotes around today.
Race 1
Marmelo is into 2.50 and that looks a bit thin on what has been achieved so far.Mambo Lady is the leader here and she may get away with a cosy run up front.I'd be more interested in backing her at odds than Marmelo at 2.50 but haven't committed to anything at this stage.
Race 2
There is no obvious pace in this race.That makes Multilateral a poor proposition at the 3.25 top quote currently on offer.He's entitled to be favourite but 3.25 is very skinny.There are plenty of chances in this race but the pace (lack of) makes it difficult to price up with confidence.Ominous is a bit of a nutter but if he ever settles early in a race he'll take some beating.The cross over noseband is tried today and if it works 20.0 is a very generous quote.Others with mayne more to offer than they have already shown are Canonized,Name The Day,Mintaro,Red Inca and Slade De Cerisy
Race 3
This is a very tricky race and it's easy to pass here
Race 4
Dystopia was 6.0 in early betting but with the scratchings reducing that price to around 4.70 she really only been a marginal firmer at around the current 4.40.She was unlucky in this race last year having been held up for 100m and just failed to catch Honey Flower.I had a decent bet on her that day.She's had a similar preparation as last year and she is definitely the top choice here.If anything I think this race is a tad harder this year and I don't think there is much fat in her price at the moment.She'll settle midfield and with the tendency to bunch up down the straight getting a run is potential negative again.I'd play at around 5.0 but I think that's unlikely at this stage
Race 5
This race is for Grey horses only.Members Joy is favourite at around 3.80.She's drawn wide and will probable go back.Her mark of 84 is pretty generous really and she 's a hope but I'm not entirely convinced that 1400m is her go.Too short I think.Footy Fan is next best in the market at 4.20 which is insanely short in my opinion although I know a couple of shrewd judges fancy it.It got beat in a much weaker race than this up in Sydney last time and I've already layed it at early quotes-should be at least 9.0.Freshwater Storm bolted in both starts this prep.The latest was in the Grey's race at Caulfield.He's flying and he should be favourite here but is 6.50 and will probably be better closer to post time.Black Cash was posted wide last time and Misty Eyes will be fitter-both are hopes
Race 6
Kirramosa well backed this morning and into 2.70 which is far too short.If ever there was a race to give the elbow to from a punting angle it's this one.It's a very,very moderate race with all of them currently rated <100 and most unlikely ever to reach that figure
Race 7
Gallatin at 2.20 is very short coming off a hard fought win in a Warwick Farm maiden.I don't like this race betting wise.
Race 8
If the good Snitzerland turns up here then this should be her's for the taking.It's a big "if' though after the way she dropped away tamely last time.That was at G1 level though and maybe the ground was a bit too moist for her there.Pass
Race 9
I really like Pro Tour but rattling fast ground is an unknown for him.If it rained and went a genuine Dead I'd start getting keener.If I'm playing here or anywhere else this afternoon I'll send details via twitter
Advised Bet: Freshwater Storm 1 unit at 5.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 1
Marmelo is into 2.50 and that looks a bit thin on what has been achieved so far.Mambo Lady is the leader here and she may get away with a cosy run up front.I'd be more interested in backing her at odds than Marmelo at 2.50 but haven't committed to anything at this stage.
Race 2
There is no obvious pace in this race.That makes Multilateral a poor proposition at the 3.25 top quote currently on offer.He's entitled to be favourite but 3.25 is very skinny.There are plenty of chances in this race but the pace (lack of) makes it difficult to price up with confidence.Ominous is a bit of a nutter but if he ever settles early in a race he'll take some beating.The cross over noseband is tried today and if it works 20.0 is a very generous quote.Others with mayne more to offer than they have already shown are Canonized,Name The Day,Mintaro,Red Inca and Slade De Cerisy
Race 3
This is a very tricky race and it's easy to pass here
Race 4
Dystopia was 6.0 in early betting but with the scratchings reducing that price to around 4.70 she really only been a marginal firmer at around the current 4.40.She was unlucky in this race last year having been held up for 100m and just failed to catch Honey Flower.I had a decent bet on her that day.She's had a similar preparation as last year and she is definitely the top choice here.If anything I think this race is a tad harder this year and I don't think there is much fat in her price at the moment.She'll settle midfield and with the tendency to bunch up down the straight getting a run is potential negative again.I'd play at around 5.0 but I think that's unlikely at this stage
Race 5
This race is for Grey horses only.Members Joy is favourite at around 3.80.She's drawn wide and will probable go back.Her mark of 84 is pretty generous really and she 's a hope but I'm not entirely convinced that 1400m is her go.Too short I think.Footy Fan is next best in the market at 4.20 which is insanely short in my opinion although I know a couple of shrewd judges fancy it.It got beat in a much weaker race than this up in Sydney last time and I've already layed it at early quotes-should be at least 9.0.Freshwater Storm bolted in both starts this prep.The latest was in the Grey's race at Caulfield.He's flying and he should be favourite here but is 6.50 and will probably be better closer to post time.Black Cash was posted wide last time and Misty Eyes will be fitter-both are hopes
Race 6
Kirramosa well backed this morning and into 2.70 which is far too short.If ever there was a race to give the elbow to from a punting angle it's this one.It's a very,very moderate race with all of them currently rated <100 and most unlikely ever to reach that figure
Race 7
Gallatin at 2.20 is very short coming off a hard fought win in a Warwick Farm maiden.I don't like this race betting wise.
Race 8
If the good Snitzerland turns up here then this should be her's for the taking.It's a big "if' though after the way she dropped away tamely last time.That was at G1 level though and maybe the ground was a bit too moist for her there.Pass
Race 9
I really like Pro Tour but rattling fast ground is an unknown for him.If it rained and went a genuine Dead I'd start getting keener.If I'm playing here or anywhere else this afternoon I'll send details via twitter
Advised Bet: Freshwater Storm 1 unit at 5.20 or better-monitor on Betfair
Monday 4 November 2013
Flemington Carnival-Melbourne Cup Day
Warm and Sunny day expected in Melbourne for the Cup.Flemington is a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 sooner rather than later.Randwick is a Good 3 and a dry day is expected there too.
I priced up the Cup yesterday and my ratings are in the previous blog.If there are any bets at Randwick I'll send them through via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
Mostly unraced 2-y-olds.Pass
Race 2
Most complex and definitely no bet here
Race 3
Opinion is a decent horse but he's blown the start twice in a row now.His UK form is really high class handicaps and he's the type of horse that should do really well out here in Australia but the gate problems are enough to put me off backing him here.Caravan Rolls On is a quality handicapper and the trip and the fast ground will suit him.He's got a wide gate to overcome as does Junood another UK import.On their UK form these three are closely handicapped and I think they are a grade above the opposition here.May play here but not committed yet
Race 4
Arinosa is a worthy favourite.Her last start at G1 level is a total forgive run and back to mares grade she'll be very competitive.There are a few hopes here though and 3.30 is a bit too short I think.Happy to pass on this one
Race 5
Official ratings have Kuroshio well on top here.I think his mark of 102 is too high though and around 92 would be a more realistic figure in my opinion.That makes this far more open.There are plenty of potential improvers here and I will not be playing here
Race 6
Moderate was hugely impressive winning a modest event up in Sydney last time.2.10 is very short for what she's achieved on paper but she did look as though there would be plenty more to come.Politeness is also a tad short at 3.50 but back in trip she's a live hope.Not betting here-these two are too short to back but I don't really want to oppose them either
Race 7
I think there is value in Fiorente (marginal but enough),Sea Moon,Fawkner and Brown Panther and I'm happy to take those four against the field.Fiorente has the best recent Australian form along with Fawkner and it's possible that both still have further improvement in them.Sea Moon hasn't matched his best form yet in his Australian runs but he's been first past the post in his last two starts and I think he just being getting fitter.If he shows up at his best here today then he'll be mighty hard to beat.Brown Panther is drawn to get a good run on the pace.He's a genuine stayer with a real touch of class and the prospect of a good run gives him a live hope
Advised Bets: Fiorente 0.75 units at 7.50 or better
Fawkner 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Sea Moon 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Brown Panther 0.35 units at 16.0 or better
Shop around there are many offers on today
Race 8
Very Keen Rain Drum here.4.0 is gone but 3.80 against my rating of 3.20 is still value.Favourite Salon Soldier is too short at < 2.50 and I think Rain drum who leads and controls the race should be favourite.
Advised Bet: Rain Drum 1.55 units at 3.30 or better-take the 3.80 on offer now
Race 9
Very open and too hard
Race 10
Happy to take a chance that The New Boy will be ready to show his best after a clean out run last time.The blinkers are back on and he'll got a cosy run up on the speed.13.0 is good value against my rating of 9.0
Advised Bet; The New Boy 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer now
Enjoy the day!
I priced up the Cup yesterday and my ratings are in the previous blog.If there are any bets at Randwick I'll send them through via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
Mostly unraced 2-y-olds.Pass
Race 2
Most complex and definitely no bet here
Race 3
Opinion is a decent horse but he's blown the start twice in a row now.His UK form is really high class handicaps and he's the type of horse that should do really well out here in Australia but the gate problems are enough to put me off backing him here.Caravan Rolls On is a quality handicapper and the trip and the fast ground will suit him.He's got a wide gate to overcome as does Junood another UK import.On their UK form these three are closely handicapped and I think they are a grade above the opposition here.May play here but not committed yet
Race 4
Arinosa is a worthy favourite.Her last start at G1 level is a total forgive run and back to mares grade she'll be very competitive.There are a few hopes here though and 3.30 is a bit too short I think.Happy to pass on this one
Race 5
Official ratings have Kuroshio well on top here.I think his mark of 102 is too high though and around 92 would be a more realistic figure in my opinion.That makes this far more open.There are plenty of potential improvers here and I will not be playing here
Race 6
Moderate was hugely impressive winning a modest event up in Sydney last time.2.10 is very short for what she's achieved on paper but she did look as though there would be plenty more to come.Politeness is also a tad short at 3.50 but back in trip she's a live hope.Not betting here-these two are too short to back but I don't really want to oppose them either
Race 7
I think there is value in Fiorente (marginal but enough),Sea Moon,Fawkner and Brown Panther and I'm happy to take those four against the field.Fiorente has the best recent Australian form along with Fawkner and it's possible that both still have further improvement in them.Sea Moon hasn't matched his best form yet in his Australian runs but he's been first past the post in his last two starts and I think he just being getting fitter.If he shows up at his best here today then he'll be mighty hard to beat.Brown Panther is drawn to get a good run on the pace.He's a genuine stayer with a real touch of class and the prospect of a good run gives him a live hope
Advised Bets: Fiorente 0.75 units at 7.50 or better
Fawkner 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Sea Moon 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Brown Panther 0.35 units at 16.0 or better
Shop around there are many offers on today
Race 8
Very Keen Rain Drum here.4.0 is gone but 3.80 against my rating of 3.20 is still value.Favourite Salon Soldier is too short at < 2.50 and I think Rain drum who leads and controls the race should be favourite.
Advised Bet: Rain Drum 1.55 units at 3.30 or better-take the 3.80 on offer now
Race 9
Very open and too hard
Race 10
Happy to take a chance that The New Boy will be ready to show his best after a clean out run last time.The blinkers are back on and he'll got a cosy run up on the speed.13.0 is good value against my rating of 9.0
Advised Bet; The New Boy 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 on offer now
Enjoy the day!
Melbourne Cup-Market Assessment & Comments
It's dry in Melbourne and the forecast for Cup day is sunny and warm.Flemington is currently a Dead 4 and overnight watering will keep it that way but it'll be good fast racing ground once things get under way you'd think.
Here are my rated prices for the race
Fiorente 7.0
Sea Moon 12.0
Fawkner 12.0
Mount Athos 12.0
Brown Panther 15.0
Verena 15.0
Seville 17.0
Simenon 21.0
Dandino 26.0
Royal Empire 26.0
Vole.De C. 26.0
Hawkspur 29.0
Super Cool 34.0
Green Moon 34.0
Dear Demi 34.0
Dunaden 41.0
Tres Blue 41.0
Foreteller 67.0
Ruscello 67.0
Masked Marvel 67.0
Mourayan 67.0
Red Cadeaux 101.0
Ethiopia 151.0
Ibecenco 151.0
Fiorente is fully entitled to be favourite with excellent lead up form,and a good gate.Before I got right into the analysis I'd thought I'd have him shorter than the 7.0 that I've finally settled on.I think it's a tough race this year to bet into with any great confidence.The two that are on offer at a decent margin to my figures are Fawkner and Brown Panther although at this stage I haven't backed anything.
I'll make a decision tomorrow betting wise and will have a look at the other races in tomorrow's blog
Here are my rated prices for the race
Fiorente 7.0
Sea Moon 12.0
Fawkner 12.0
Mount Athos 12.0
Brown Panther 15.0
Verena 15.0
Seville 17.0
Simenon 21.0
Dandino 26.0
Royal Empire 26.0
Vole.De C. 26.0
Hawkspur 29.0
Super Cool 34.0
Green Moon 34.0
Dear Demi 34.0
Dunaden 41.0
Tres Blue 41.0
Foreteller 67.0
Ruscello 67.0
Masked Marvel 67.0
Mourayan 67.0
Red Cadeaux 101.0
Ethiopia 151.0
Ibecenco 151.0
Fiorente is fully entitled to be favourite with excellent lead up form,and a good gate.Before I got right into the analysis I'd thought I'd have him shorter than the 7.0 that I've finally settled on.I think it's a tough race this year to bet into with any great confidence.The two that are on offer at a decent margin to my figures are Fawkner and Brown Panther although at this stage I haven't backed anything.
I'll make a decision tomorrow betting wise and will have a look at the other races in tomorrow's blog
Friday 1 November 2013
Flemington Carnival-Derby Day
Flemington's Carnival gets under way with the Victorian Derby the highlight and three other G1's also on the card.Dead 4 posted but with no significant rain around you'd expect an upgrade.After Bendigo on Wednesday when the wrong ground was posted initially and then upgraded but still fell short of accuracy I not entirely convinced that Flemington is a genuine Dead 4.Sam Hyland described it this morning as having "good cover and give".Monitor.
In Sydney Rosehill is a Good 3 and any rain there will be very light so expect fast ground.No early bets at Rosehill but a couple of possibilities so if I'm playing I'll send details via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
I can't oppose Hucklebuck and at around evens I think he's accurately priced.
Race 2
May's Dream has her final's day in the Oaks on Thursday.She's the best horse here and is hard to oppose form wise but if I'm backing one at 2.40 I want to know that it's going round "with all guns blazing".That isn't the case when your main objective comes up in five days time.Pass
Race 3
Kelinni was 11.0 earlier in the week but is now into 6.50.I have him on top in a tricky race but he's about the right price now.This is not an easy race to unravel.No bet for me.
Race 4
Bookies have eased Zoustar out to Evens.He's looked very good in Sydney but I'm not sure he's beaten anything that special yet.Waller has been very bullish about him and that resulted in him been sold earlier in the week for plenty.For the old connections the job is done and it's a good one.The new owners will find out if the got there money's worth this afternoon.Found this race hard to price confidently.Pass
Race 5
I think Jet Away is a bit too short here at 3.0.He's entitled to be on top but at around a point longer I think.I can't emphatically rule anything out in this race.I'm not backing anything but if I was given a free bet I'd have it on Dear Demi at 11.0
Race 6
The wheel is beginning to turn with some nice young horses bred in Australia that actually have decent staying blood in them.Usually when assessing this race the question is will they stay the 2500m.As far as Complacent and Savvy Nature are concerned the answer is a strong probably.I'm not opposing these two but the gates are not good and it's a nightmare start if you draw wide.I still may play here with either or both of these but at this stage I'm not committed.
Race 7
If Red Tracer runs out a strong 1600m then she will be mighty hard to beat.There is enough doubt about her at the trip to stop me getting involved at around 2.80 though.Fire Up Fifi,Catkins,Sharnee Rose and Zonza are all credible alternatives if you wanted to risk the favourite
Race 8
Too hard
Race 9
Too Hard
I'll send Tweets through if there is anything.Enjoy the day but go cautiously it's tricky.
In Sydney Rosehill is a Good 3 and any rain there will be very light so expect fast ground.No early bets at Rosehill but a couple of possibilities so if I'm playing I'll send details via Twitter.
Flemington
Race 1
I can't oppose Hucklebuck and at around evens I think he's accurately priced.
Race 2
May's Dream has her final's day in the Oaks on Thursday.She's the best horse here and is hard to oppose form wise but if I'm backing one at 2.40 I want to know that it's going round "with all guns blazing".That isn't the case when your main objective comes up in five days time.Pass
Race 3
Kelinni was 11.0 earlier in the week but is now into 6.50.I have him on top in a tricky race but he's about the right price now.This is not an easy race to unravel.No bet for me.
Race 4
Bookies have eased Zoustar out to Evens.He's looked very good in Sydney but I'm not sure he's beaten anything that special yet.Waller has been very bullish about him and that resulted in him been sold earlier in the week for plenty.For the old connections the job is done and it's a good one.The new owners will find out if the got there money's worth this afternoon.Found this race hard to price confidently.Pass
Race 5
I think Jet Away is a bit too short here at 3.0.He's entitled to be on top but at around a point longer I think.I can't emphatically rule anything out in this race.I'm not backing anything but if I was given a free bet I'd have it on Dear Demi at 11.0
Race 6
The wheel is beginning to turn with some nice young horses bred in Australia that actually have decent staying blood in them.Usually when assessing this race the question is will they stay the 2500m.As far as Complacent and Savvy Nature are concerned the answer is a strong probably.I'm not opposing these two but the gates are not good and it's a nightmare start if you draw wide.I still may play here with either or both of these but at this stage I'm not committed.
Race 7
If Red Tracer runs out a strong 1600m then she will be mighty hard to beat.There is enough doubt about her at the trip to stop me getting involved at around 2.80 though.Fire Up Fifi,Catkins,Sharnee Rose and Zonza are all credible alternatives if you wanted to risk the favourite
Race 8
Too hard
Race 9
Too Hard
I'll send Tweets through if there is anything.Enjoy the day but go cautiously it's tricky.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)