Moonee Valley tonight and track is posted as a Dead 4.There is a bit of rain around in Melbourne today and at this stage 5 hours out from the start of the meeting I expect it will remain a dead track tonight.
There are no advised bets tonight -I was interested in 2 or 3 horses but they have come up too short in early markets so I've decided to pass.
Back tomorrow with a look at Saturday's racing
Thursday 31 January 2013
January Round Up & Laying horses
January was the worst performing month for this blog since I started it in October last year.Bets were advised in 19 races and there were 4 winners and 7 placings (5 seconds) which scraped a miserly profit on the month of 0.25 units.Nothing flash I'll concede but it is some profit to add to the previous months successes.The early months of October and November were very good but I was just advising selections then and not giving staking and odds advice.Since I started giving specific staking and odds in December the cumulative totals are as follows :-
Stakes 56.55 Returns 63.58 Profit 7.03 Profit on turnover 12.43%
As we move into February we'll quickly see the quality of the racing improve and we'll be dealing with decent racing and better horses which does give us plenty took look forward to.December and January are tough months to cope with with lots of racing and most of it of very poor quality and the added distractions of Christmas and New Year.
I have a lot more "lay"bets on the exchange during the off months and find that the best way to keep things ticking over every day.Laying horses can be difficult for a lot of punters especially the ones who don't like betting at short odds as effectively your betting "odds on" the majority of times when you lay one (unless it's odds on itself of course).Four or five winners on one afternoon can wipe out all your gains from the previous few days so it can be a very frustrating exercise if you go through a poor run as inevitably you will at some point.The reality is though that when you have a midweek card at Moe to deal with it's almost impossible sometimes to find anything you want to back but not at all hard to find plenty that you wouldn't back with someone else's money.
My approach is that I lay to lose a set amount irrespective of whether I'm laying an even money shot or a 10/1 shot.I lose the same amount when any of them win but the shorter they are the more I make when they get beaten.Around the country tracks I'm very wary when the market seems to be emphatic about something and will often decide to scratch the "lay" and back it back and accept a small loss.This cottoning on to when there is more going on than you actually know about just comes with experience but I'm never slow to back off when things aren't looking quite right.
For anyone who is thinking about starting to try "lay" betting my advice would be to firstly understand that you have to accept that laying winners is as much a part of it as is laying losers-that some of them win is inevitable.Start for modest amounts that aren't going to knock you out if three or four of them win in a row (it happens).Build up slowly as you get better at it.If you get into the market early in race a very good rule of thumb is to think seriously about scratching and accepting a modest loss if the market is telling you you've got it wrong.For example if you lay a second favourite at 4.00 and the favourite starts to blow and your lay shortens to 3.50 get out,clear your liability and accept a modest loss.It's a bit different if your playing late just before off time but it's also harder over the long term to have an edge if you get into the market late.If you find that 75% of the ones you lay blow in the market albeit only a half point or so your well on your way to getting good at it-just be careful with the ones that firm up and unless your holding a strong opinion don't be slow to scratch and take a small loss.
Stakes 56.55 Returns 63.58 Profit 7.03 Profit on turnover 12.43%
As we move into February we'll quickly see the quality of the racing improve and we'll be dealing with decent racing and better horses which does give us plenty took look forward to.December and January are tough months to cope with with lots of racing and most of it of very poor quality and the added distractions of Christmas and New Year.
I have a lot more "lay"bets on the exchange during the off months and find that the best way to keep things ticking over every day.Laying horses can be difficult for a lot of punters especially the ones who don't like betting at short odds as effectively your betting "odds on" the majority of times when you lay one (unless it's odds on itself of course).Four or five winners on one afternoon can wipe out all your gains from the previous few days so it can be a very frustrating exercise if you go through a poor run as inevitably you will at some point.The reality is though that when you have a midweek card at Moe to deal with it's almost impossible sometimes to find anything you want to back but not at all hard to find plenty that you wouldn't back with someone else's money.
My approach is that I lay to lose a set amount irrespective of whether I'm laying an even money shot or a 10/1 shot.I lose the same amount when any of them win but the shorter they are the more I make when they get beaten.Around the country tracks I'm very wary when the market seems to be emphatic about something and will often decide to scratch the "lay" and back it back and accept a small loss.This cottoning on to when there is more going on than you actually know about just comes with experience but I'm never slow to back off when things aren't looking quite right.
For anyone who is thinking about starting to try "lay" betting my advice would be to firstly understand that you have to accept that laying winners is as much a part of it as is laying losers-that some of them win is inevitable.Start for modest amounts that aren't going to knock you out if three or four of them win in a row (it happens).Build up slowly as you get better at it.If you get into the market early in race a very good rule of thumb is to think seriously about scratching and accepting a modest loss if the market is telling you you've got it wrong.For example if you lay a second favourite at 4.00 and the favourite starts to blow and your lay shortens to 3.50 get out,clear your liability and accept a modest loss.It's a bit different if your playing late just before off time but it's also harder over the long term to have an edge if you get into the market late.If you find that 75% of the ones you lay blow in the market albeit only a half point or so your well on your way to getting good at it-just be careful with the ones that firm up and unless your holding a strong opinion don't be slow to scratch and take a small loss.
Tuesday 29 January 2013
Ballarat & Gosford Today
As I mentioned last week some of the Wednesday fixtures in the Summer months have really fallen away quality wise and that is pretty much the case today.
Ballarat Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3.When Sam Hyland walked the track this morning he noted that the inside was a little chopped out and that the track walked best a few horse widths away from the fence.The rail is out a full 13m in the straight here today!He also noted that the ground down the outside of the track seemed firmer.The fence may be well and truly off here today so caution if you are playing early.
It's a typical Ballarat midweek programme.Far from easy overall but I'm happy to play in the last race
Race 8 Two against the field here.Red Rain and Champagne Shisha both come off very decent efforts in Saturday grade at Flemington last time so their chances here are obvious but both are pretty much exposed types and I doubt there is that much improvement to come from either.Tuscan Breeze resumes after a stint in Darwin where he seems to have improved a bit.He's not hopeless if he's fit enough.Bet You She Rocks was very dominant winning her maiden at Sale and I suspect she's going to rate much higher than the 62 she races off here today.A little bit of 5.0 was quickly snapped up but at 4.40 she is still of interest-I have her at 3.75.Vee Force looked a horse with a real future when powering home at Ararat last month.He was backed heavily here a couple of weeks after that but was withdrawn at the start.Last time at Kyneton he was smashed in the betting again but looked all at sea from the moment the gates opened that day and was beaten a long way from home.That was too bad to be true and I'm forgiving him one poor effort.He's a big long strider so maybe Kyneton was too tight or maybe he just had an off day.He's got a Saturday second at Flemington to his credit from last prep and is 5.00 on my figures but can be backed at 9.50 here.
Gosford Heavy 8 here after the big wet earlier in the week.I won't be backing anything here today with all the recent form being on fast ground I'm very wary.The only observation I did have here today was regarding race 4 where Spurtonic has been installed fav around 3.30.I think that's big unders-I have him at 6.00-whether that helps you I don't know.
Advised Bets
Ballarat Race 8 Bet You She Rocks 1.30 units to win @4.00 or better (take the 4.40 now)
Vee Force 1 unit to win @ 5.50 or better (take the 9.50 Bet 365 if you can
otherwise plenty of 8.0 available)
Ballarat Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3.When Sam Hyland walked the track this morning he noted that the inside was a little chopped out and that the track walked best a few horse widths away from the fence.The rail is out a full 13m in the straight here today!He also noted that the ground down the outside of the track seemed firmer.The fence may be well and truly off here today so caution if you are playing early.
It's a typical Ballarat midweek programme.Far from easy overall but I'm happy to play in the last race
Race 8 Two against the field here.Red Rain and Champagne Shisha both come off very decent efforts in Saturday grade at Flemington last time so their chances here are obvious but both are pretty much exposed types and I doubt there is that much improvement to come from either.Tuscan Breeze resumes after a stint in Darwin where he seems to have improved a bit.He's not hopeless if he's fit enough.Bet You She Rocks was very dominant winning her maiden at Sale and I suspect she's going to rate much higher than the 62 she races off here today.A little bit of 5.0 was quickly snapped up but at 4.40 she is still of interest-I have her at 3.75.Vee Force looked a horse with a real future when powering home at Ararat last month.He was backed heavily here a couple of weeks after that but was withdrawn at the start.Last time at Kyneton he was smashed in the betting again but looked all at sea from the moment the gates opened that day and was beaten a long way from home.That was too bad to be true and I'm forgiving him one poor effort.He's a big long strider so maybe Kyneton was too tight or maybe he just had an off day.He's got a Saturday second at Flemington to his credit from last prep and is 5.00 on my figures but can be backed at 9.50 here.
Gosford Heavy 8 here after the big wet earlier in the week.I won't be backing anything here today with all the recent form being on fast ground I'm very wary.The only observation I did have here today was regarding race 4 where Spurtonic has been installed fav around 3.30.I think that's big unders-I have him at 6.00-whether that helps you I don't know.
Advised Bets
Ballarat Race 8 Bet You She Rocks 1.30 units to win @4.00 or better (take the 4.40 now)
Vee Force 1 unit to win @ 5.50 or better (take the 9.50 Bet 365 if you can
otherwise plenty of 8.0 available)
Monday 28 January 2013
Integrity Services
Apologies for no blog yesterday to cover the MRC meeting at Mornington but I had no Telsta service (broadband,landline and mobile all out) yesterday.Annoying but bearable considering what many others in Queensland are going through right now.
Racing Victoria's Integrity Services is in the news with their "compliance unit" dropping in on stables mid-morning and stumbling across/finding all kinds of naughtyness going on involving syringes,tubes etc.
As a punter I'm glad to see something happening but can't help feeling that without the shake up from outside (ABC Four Corners and The Age) things generally would have carried on much as before.
Victoria's Integrity Services Commissioner,Sal Perna last week emphasized that after conducting a thorough review he didn't believe that all in all things were too bad.He later went on to call on Victoria Police to initiate a dedicated Racing Squad to deal with issues of corruption in Victorian Racing.If you want the police to set up a special task force Sal, I suspect, deep down you know things are far from good and plenty of nonsense is happening on a regular basis.
I've been following Victorian racing virtually daily for quite a few years now.Compared to what used to happen around the gaff tracks in the UK when I was punting there in the 80's things are much better here now than they were there then.Stewards over there at that time were unpaid dignataries who turned up to officiate out of a sense of duty and to enjoy a good well lubricated lunch at the same time.Many were owners with horses in training with the same trainers they were officiating over.Hardly an enviroment condusive to fair play and impartiality.
Skullduggery isn't quite so blatant now it's subtler.Those of us following things on a daily basis and expecting to trade profitably out of it soon develop a nose for when things aren't quite kosher.There are trainers and jockeys viewed with suspicion and caution not out of malice but out of hard earned experience.Money speaks all languages and lack of it connected to horses ridden by or trained by those in question generally tells you plenty and more besides.
The reality is that racing in any jurisdiction is as straight as the overseeing authority demands that it be.In Hong Kong I would say it is as straight as it is possible for it humanly to be.Integrity overides all other considerations there.In the competitive world that most of us inhabit we get better by striving and emulating those who we accept are doing things excellently.If you want people to spend their leisure dollar punting on horse racing you need to make integrity paramount.If your running for cover and flapping like a headless chook when the likes of Four Corners and The Age get stuck into you it's because they are touching a raw nerve and you know it.Surely it is time to aspire to making the integrity of Australian racing on a par with that of Hong Kong.As the premier racing state and with all the recent hullabaloo it's time for Victoria to take the lead here.
A good place to start would be by allocating some serious resources into restructuring Integrity Services probably at the expense of prize money.This would send a loud and clear message that punters are being put first and that their money (they are the largest and most consistent contributors to the coffers of racing) is being used to structure an integrity division that they can be confident is operating at world's best practise levels.Whether the current chief steward Terry Bailey is the man to take things forward is debatable.I believe Bailey compromised his authority in his handling of the Danny Nikolic case by allowing the issue to become personal.The animus between the two men was well known for some time in racing circles and the blame for that has to lie with Bailey not Nikolic.A chief steward has to be seen to be above petty dislikes etc. and by allowing things to fester as he did Bailey undermined the integity of his office.Whatever one thinks of NSW chief steward Ray Murrihy
(he made an arse of himself about Betfair both here and overseas) his handling of Jockeys indiscretions has been thorough and fair.Jockeys and Trainers may not like him but his judgements are seen to be fair and impartial and as such he has the respect that his office demands.
The bloke who's Chief Steward in Queensland doesn't really rate a mention.
Racing Victoria's Integrity Services is in the news with their "compliance unit" dropping in on stables mid-morning and stumbling across/finding all kinds of naughtyness going on involving syringes,tubes etc.
As a punter I'm glad to see something happening but can't help feeling that without the shake up from outside (ABC Four Corners and The Age) things generally would have carried on much as before.
Victoria's Integrity Services Commissioner,Sal Perna last week emphasized that after conducting a thorough review he didn't believe that all in all things were too bad.He later went on to call on Victoria Police to initiate a dedicated Racing Squad to deal with issues of corruption in Victorian Racing.If you want the police to set up a special task force Sal, I suspect, deep down you know things are far from good and plenty of nonsense is happening on a regular basis.
I've been following Victorian racing virtually daily for quite a few years now.Compared to what used to happen around the gaff tracks in the UK when I was punting there in the 80's things are much better here now than they were there then.Stewards over there at that time were unpaid dignataries who turned up to officiate out of a sense of duty and to enjoy a good well lubricated lunch at the same time.Many were owners with horses in training with the same trainers they were officiating over.Hardly an enviroment condusive to fair play and impartiality.
Skullduggery isn't quite so blatant now it's subtler.Those of us following things on a daily basis and expecting to trade profitably out of it soon develop a nose for when things aren't quite kosher.There are trainers and jockeys viewed with suspicion and caution not out of malice but out of hard earned experience.Money speaks all languages and lack of it connected to horses ridden by or trained by those in question generally tells you plenty and more besides.
The reality is that racing in any jurisdiction is as straight as the overseeing authority demands that it be.In Hong Kong I would say it is as straight as it is possible for it humanly to be.Integrity overides all other considerations there.In the competitive world that most of us inhabit we get better by striving and emulating those who we accept are doing things excellently.If you want people to spend their leisure dollar punting on horse racing you need to make integrity paramount.If your running for cover and flapping like a headless chook when the likes of Four Corners and The Age get stuck into you it's because they are touching a raw nerve and you know it.Surely it is time to aspire to making the integrity of Australian racing on a par with that of Hong Kong.As the premier racing state and with all the recent hullabaloo it's time for Victoria to take the lead here.
A good place to start would be by allocating some serious resources into restructuring Integrity Services probably at the expense of prize money.This would send a loud and clear message that punters are being put first and that their money (they are the largest and most consistent contributors to the coffers of racing) is being used to structure an integrity division that they can be confident is operating at world's best practise levels.Whether the current chief steward Terry Bailey is the man to take things forward is debatable.I believe Bailey compromised his authority in his handling of the Danny Nikolic case by allowing the issue to become personal.The animus between the two men was well known for some time in racing circles and the blame for that has to lie with Bailey not Nikolic.A chief steward has to be seen to be above petty dislikes etc. and by allowing things to fester as he did Bailey undermined the integity of his office.Whatever one thinks of NSW chief steward Ray Murrihy
(he made an arse of himself about Betfair both here and overseas) his handling of Jockeys indiscretions has been thorough and fair.Jockeys and Trainers may not like him but his judgements are seen to be fair and impartial and as such he has the respect that his office demands.
The bloke who's Chief Steward in Queensland doesn't really rate a mention.
Friday 25 January 2013
Australia Day Racing at Caulfield & Warwick Farm
A very nice winner at 11.0 last night gets the blog right back on track after a lean couple of weeks.
Australia Day programmes today at Caulfield and Warwick Farm.Caulfield is a Dead 4 but will almost certainly upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 but has thundery showers possible this afternoon so there is a chance that they may affect the track if they do arrive and are heavy and prolonged.
Caulfield
I cannot really find any early value here today so nothing I can put forward.
Warwick Farm
Race 5 Matignon is favourite here after being blocked for a run last time.She seemed to resent being settled early in that race and fought the rider for the first furlong or so.She's a mare who can still do better but she's been well found in the early markets here at 3.30.Kristy Lee makes more appeal after a very dominant win last time albeit in maiden grade.The drop back to 1200m there really seemed to suit her and she bounded away.Photon Willie who finished third that day has already franked the form with a win on Wednesday.A mark of 67 looks fair and she gets weight from everything else here.She is best priced 5.0 with bookies but is available at longer on Betfair and she should get out to around 5.50 there at some point.I have her rated 4.60.
Race 8 War Charm is favourite here at 4.80.He's a live hope and he ran like he was looking for 1400m last time but the current quote is too short .Far more appealing is the progessive Reunite who has twice obliged for the blog in recent weeks and who keeps being underestimated by the bookies.Once again he draws to get a gun run just behind the speed.The very capable (and fanciable) Kathy O'Hara keeps the ride and I cannot quite understand how he is listed at 11.0 (more generally 10.0) and was a tad bigger earlier.Rock solid 7.0 on my figures so keen to be involved.
Advised Bets
Warwick Farm Race 5 Kristy Lee 1.10 units to win @ 4.80 or better (shop on Betfair and look for 5.50 plus)
Race 8 Reunite 0.75 units to win @ 7.50 or better (11.0 is available
with Bet365 or 10.0 more generally-take the odds on
offer now)
Australia Day programmes today at Caulfield and Warwick Farm.Caulfield is a Dead 4 but will almost certainly upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 but has thundery showers possible this afternoon so there is a chance that they may affect the track if they do arrive and are heavy and prolonged.
Caulfield
I cannot really find any early value here today so nothing I can put forward.
Warwick Farm
Race 5 Matignon is favourite here after being blocked for a run last time.She seemed to resent being settled early in that race and fought the rider for the first furlong or so.She's a mare who can still do better but she's been well found in the early markets here at 3.30.Kristy Lee makes more appeal after a very dominant win last time albeit in maiden grade.The drop back to 1200m there really seemed to suit her and she bounded away.Photon Willie who finished third that day has already franked the form with a win on Wednesday.A mark of 67 looks fair and she gets weight from everything else here.She is best priced 5.0 with bookies but is available at longer on Betfair and she should get out to around 5.50 there at some point.I have her rated 4.60.
Race 8 War Charm is favourite here at 4.80.He's a live hope and he ran like he was looking for 1400m last time but the current quote is too short .Far more appealing is the progessive Reunite who has twice obliged for the blog in recent weeks and who keeps being underestimated by the bookies.Once again he draws to get a gun run just behind the speed.The very capable (and fanciable) Kathy O'Hara keeps the ride and I cannot quite understand how he is listed at 11.0 (more generally 10.0) and was a tad bigger earlier.Rock solid 7.0 on my figures so keen to be involved.
Advised Bets
Warwick Farm Race 5 Kristy Lee 1.10 units to win @ 4.80 or better (shop on Betfair and look for 5.50 plus)
Race 8 Reunite 0.75 units to win @ 7.50 or better (11.0 is available
with Bet365 or 10.0 more generally-take the odds on
offer now)
Thursday 24 January 2013
Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight
Evening racing at both Moonee Valley and Canterbury tonight.Both tracks are now Good 3 and expect good fast summer conditions at both venues.
Reasonable cards for both meetings tonight but not a lot of value apparent at this stage.All of my activity this evening will be on the lay side of the exchange until the last race at the Valley where I shall be having a small play at odds.
Moonee Valley
Race 8 A few live hopes here but Highness does look decent overs at 11.0.He ran well here when second to Jamaican Warrior here 2 starts back and then followed up with a soft win at Morphetville last time.A lightly raced 6-y-o with the scope to improve further and ridden by the promising apprentice Jamie Kah he rates a 6.50 chance on my figures so I'm happy to risk a bit at the 11.0 on offer.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 8 Highness 0.75 units to win @ 7.00 or better (take the 11.0 on offer now with IAS and Sportsbet)
Reasonable cards for both meetings tonight but not a lot of value apparent at this stage.All of my activity this evening will be on the lay side of the exchange until the last race at the Valley where I shall be having a small play at odds.
Moonee Valley
Race 8 A few live hopes here but Highness does look decent overs at 11.0.He ran well here when second to Jamaican Warrior here 2 starts back and then followed up with a soft win at Morphetville last time.A lightly raced 6-y-o with the scope to improve further and ridden by the promising apprentice Jamie Kah he rates a 6.50 chance on my figures so I'm happy to risk a bit at the 11.0 on offer.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 8 Highness 0.75 units to win @ 7.00 or better (take the 11.0 on offer now with IAS and Sportsbet)
Tuesday 22 January 2013
Ballarat & Kembla Today
Wednesday racing isn't what is was with the racing clubs moving to Friday evening fixtures.Commercially it makes sense for the clubs to race when their patrons are not tied up with work and business bit it does leave the early part of the week looking a bit shabby.
It's an ATC fixture at Kembla but it looks like a standard Kembla provincial meeting really with the added bonus for "participants" of plenty of extra prize money sloshing around.At some point over the next few weeks I'll be firing off a few blogs about the state of Australian Racing and the piss poor way it is administered but for now I'll stick to trying to find a winner or two.If your playing at Kembla today then good luck.I couldn't find anything to interest me there at all.The track is rated a Dead 4 and showers are forecast so don't automatically assume an upgrade is a given.
Typical provincial midweek meeting at Ballarat today.Dead 4 posted and a bit of drizzle forecast this morning.Radar looks all clear so I expect an upgrade to Good 3.
Race 4 Interesting maiden I thought.Rawiller gets the leg up on Angola and he's the man to get the best out of this horse.He's copped bit of flack of late for some of his rides (Richard Callender was particularly vocal on a couple of occasions) but there is no jockey riding better in Victoria and I rate him very highly.He's improved enormously over the last few months and I always see him as a positive for any horse, particularly so in races over 1600m plus.This horse needs to settle a little better and expect Rawiller to have him covered up nicely on the fence a little better than midfield.He's a tricky ride but if Rawiller can get him relaxed he could improve a fair bit on his last effort.
Vine was very good from the rear last time in a decent midweek race at Sandown.Nicholas Hall rides and here we have the opposite of Rawiller.This is a rider who whilst possessing ability loses many races with extreme waiting tactics.I'm wary of backing horses ridden by Hall and would need to see things happening a little differently in the way he approaches things for me to change my mind.Vine will get back and attempt to round them up late.He looks the horse with the most potential here but may need further now.No early markets here so no bet advised but a race I'm interested in pending the shape of the market.
Race 7 I think there is more to come from Sound Of The Ocean.Both his efforts this prep have been good albeit in -58 grade.The step up to -62 grade here will put off a lot of people but not me.Time may tell he was really up against it last time trying to give 5kg's to Onya Keithy who bolted up again at Camperdown on Saturday.He was wide throughout that day as well.The step up 1400m is very much a positive as is the nice gate (4)-he can race handy.He's a half brother to Hay List and whilst he's unlikely to rival his sibling in ability he's going along the right way.My figures have him at 4.50 here and 7.00 is available now which makes plenty of appeal to me.
Advised Bets
Ballarat Race 7 Sound Of The Ocean 1.10 units to win @ 4.80 or better (take the 7.00 on offer now)
It's an ATC fixture at Kembla but it looks like a standard Kembla provincial meeting really with the added bonus for "participants" of plenty of extra prize money sloshing around.At some point over the next few weeks I'll be firing off a few blogs about the state of Australian Racing and the piss poor way it is administered but for now I'll stick to trying to find a winner or two.If your playing at Kembla today then good luck.I couldn't find anything to interest me there at all.The track is rated a Dead 4 and showers are forecast so don't automatically assume an upgrade is a given.
Typical provincial midweek meeting at Ballarat today.Dead 4 posted and a bit of drizzle forecast this morning.Radar looks all clear so I expect an upgrade to Good 3.
Race 4 Interesting maiden I thought.Rawiller gets the leg up on Angola and he's the man to get the best out of this horse.He's copped bit of flack of late for some of his rides (Richard Callender was particularly vocal on a couple of occasions) but there is no jockey riding better in Victoria and I rate him very highly.He's improved enormously over the last few months and I always see him as a positive for any horse, particularly so in races over 1600m plus.This horse needs to settle a little better and expect Rawiller to have him covered up nicely on the fence a little better than midfield.He's a tricky ride but if Rawiller can get him relaxed he could improve a fair bit on his last effort.
Vine was very good from the rear last time in a decent midweek race at Sandown.Nicholas Hall rides and here we have the opposite of Rawiller.This is a rider who whilst possessing ability loses many races with extreme waiting tactics.I'm wary of backing horses ridden by Hall and would need to see things happening a little differently in the way he approaches things for me to change my mind.Vine will get back and attempt to round them up late.He looks the horse with the most potential here but may need further now.No early markets here so no bet advised but a race I'm interested in pending the shape of the market.
Race 7 I think there is more to come from Sound Of The Ocean.Both his efforts this prep have been good albeit in -58 grade.The step up to -62 grade here will put off a lot of people but not me.Time may tell he was really up against it last time trying to give 5kg's to Onya Keithy who bolted up again at Camperdown on Saturday.He was wide throughout that day as well.The step up 1400m is very much a positive as is the nice gate (4)-he can race handy.He's a half brother to Hay List and whilst he's unlikely to rival his sibling in ability he's going along the right way.My figures have him at 4.50 here and 7.00 is available now which makes plenty of appeal to me.
Advised Bets
Ballarat Race 7 Sound Of The Ocean 1.10 units to win @ 4.80 or better (take the 7.00 on offer now)
Friday 18 January 2013
Flemington & Rosehill Today
Wednesday was a challenging day with 3 seconds.That's rubbed out the profit for the month so some work to do to get back ahead.
Flemington and Rosehill today and dry conditions at Flemington should see an upgrade from a Dead 4 to a Good 3 early on.Rosehill is a Good 3 and although there is a bit of rain around I doubt it will be enough to change the track rating.
I've tried to be earlier today but I'm still later than planned but will have it out by 10am in future.
Flemington
I've found it tough it here today and there are no advised bets.Most of the races make no appeal at all from a betting point of view although I'll be actively laying a few on the exchange.The races that did present as possible betting opportunities are reviewed
Race 5 I though Infinite Energy and Goldstone stood out from the rest form wise here.I think the market has it right putting Infinite Energy on top.At 3.00 and 4.00 respectively they account for 45% of the market and that's fair enough.The problem for both is the gates they draw-1 and 2.Both like to settle back and as such are going to need some luck getting out to challenge.I don't see any value in their current quotes but am struggling to find anything to suggest as a credible threat.No Bet.
Race 7 Elusive King is the obvious here.On offer at 3.30 now out from 3.00.My figures have him 2.70 but only if he's 100% ready to go.He is 4 weeks between runs.The 2000m race here on New Year's Day was the obvious progression for him but he was a no show there and l'm left wondering why.Has he had a slight setback and missed some work?He's drifting out and bookies look keen to "get" him.Watch TVN and hope they talk to P.Moody pre- race to get a clarification on his well being.I will not be backing him however.
Race 8 I like Nella Fantasia but I don't like the gate she's drawn.A few will want to hold good positions here and she's a real chance of been posted wide throughout.There are few progressives ones here too-Folk Rock,Meliora and the intriguing Melting Moment.Also some solid types who can't be discounted so it's all too hard for me.
Rosehill
One of the limitations of this blog is it is done early and some races pose questions that are not easy to answer with any real confidence until much later in the day if at all.Race 3 here today is an example as I'll explain in the notes.Like at Flemington most of the races don't appeal but there is one bet and if you are a regular follower you'll be expecting it.
Race 1 I thought General Peekay had a bit in hand when he won last time-not a lot but a bit more than the margin suggests.A few go forward here and they might set it up for either Chiarmonte or Shivarchi to come over the top of them.I couldn't oppose General Peekay though although at 3.20/3.30 he's about right.If he get's out to around 3.75 I might be tempted to back him but no bet is advised.
Race 3 She's Clean was a bit unlucky last week but at 2.30 she looks too short however this race is very foggy looking due to the questions surrounding Princess Layla and Satruga.Princess Layla looks far too big at 4.80 if she can run to her best.Her 2 best runs were when she had the blinkers on but they come off here after a lifeless effort last time.The tongue tie goes on and McDonald is back aboard.She didn't lead last time and seems better when she does.Sastruga was poor last time but has had a month off so maybe she'll be back refreshed or maybe she'll need the run.She may want the lead here as well and she draws inside Princess Layla so may hold her out.A few questions here that I cannot answer at the moment but which may become clearer as the market develops and we've heard what trainers have to say in pre race interviews.I really want to oppose She's Clean at the cramped odds but cannot justify doing so at this stage
Race 7 I cannot say if Panko would have won last week as she never saw any daylight at all and all you can say with any certainty was that she would have been around the money.This is almost the same scenario as last week but with Secessio thrown in to complicate things a bit.Kukri will go forward and hope for a soft lead like last week-a few of the others may be wise to it and husstle him along a bit more this time.Secessio will need some pace on to win I think he looks a stayer and will win races here but probably over further.He's 3 weeks between runs here and it may be next time for him.Panko we know has a good turn of foot and much as I hate following up on "unlucky" horses I have to play again as the odds are similar or better to last week.4.80 is the best with bookies but they are getting her out on Betfair (5.30 now)just as they did last week so shop there.I've got her at 4.0 again.
Advised Bets
Rosehill Race 7 Panko 1.25 units to win at 4.20 or better.Shop on Betfair you should get set at 5.0 plus -ask for value don't just take what's offered
Flemington and Rosehill today and dry conditions at Flemington should see an upgrade from a Dead 4 to a Good 3 early on.Rosehill is a Good 3 and although there is a bit of rain around I doubt it will be enough to change the track rating.
I've tried to be earlier today but I'm still later than planned but will have it out by 10am in future.
Flemington
I've found it tough it here today and there are no advised bets.Most of the races make no appeal at all from a betting point of view although I'll be actively laying a few on the exchange.The races that did present as possible betting opportunities are reviewed
Race 5 I though Infinite Energy and Goldstone stood out from the rest form wise here.I think the market has it right putting Infinite Energy on top.At 3.00 and 4.00 respectively they account for 45% of the market and that's fair enough.The problem for both is the gates they draw-1 and 2.Both like to settle back and as such are going to need some luck getting out to challenge.I don't see any value in their current quotes but am struggling to find anything to suggest as a credible threat.No Bet.
Race 7 Elusive King is the obvious here.On offer at 3.30 now out from 3.00.My figures have him 2.70 but only if he's 100% ready to go.He is 4 weeks between runs.The 2000m race here on New Year's Day was the obvious progression for him but he was a no show there and l'm left wondering why.Has he had a slight setback and missed some work?He's drifting out and bookies look keen to "get" him.Watch TVN and hope they talk to P.Moody pre- race to get a clarification on his well being.I will not be backing him however.
Race 8 I like Nella Fantasia but I don't like the gate she's drawn.A few will want to hold good positions here and she's a real chance of been posted wide throughout.There are few progressives ones here too-Folk Rock,Meliora and the intriguing Melting Moment.Also some solid types who can't be discounted so it's all too hard for me.
Rosehill
One of the limitations of this blog is it is done early and some races pose questions that are not easy to answer with any real confidence until much later in the day if at all.Race 3 here today is an example as I'll explain in the notes.Like at Flemington most of the races don't appeal but there is one bet and if you are a regular follower you'll be expecting it.
Race 1 I thought General Peekay had a bit in hand when he won last time-not a lot but a bit more than the margin suggests.A few go forward here and they might set it up for either Chiarmonte or Shivarchi to come over the top of them.I couldn't oppose General Peekay though although at 3.20/3.30 he's about right.If he get's out to around 3.75 I might be tempted to back him but no bet is advised.
Race 3 She's Clean was a bit unlucky last week but at 2.30 she looks too short however this race is very foggy looking due to the questions surrounding Princess Layla and Satruga.Princess Layla looks far too big at 4.80 if she can run to her best.Her 2 best runs were when she had the blinkers on but they come off here after a lifeless effort last time.The tongue tie goes on and McDonald is back aboard.She didn't lead last time and seems better when she does.Sastruga was poor last time but has had a month off so maybe she'll be back refreshed or maybe she'll need the run.She may want the lead here as well and she draws inside Princess Layla so may hold her out.A few questions here that I cannot answer at the moment but which may become clearer as the market develops and we've heard what trainers have to say in pre race interviews.I really want to oppose She's Clean at the cramped odds but cannot justify doing so at this stage
Race 7 I cannot say if Panko would have won last week as she never saw any daylight at all and all you can say with any certainty was that she would have been around the money.This is almost the same scenario as last week but with Secessio thrown in to complicate things a bit.Kukri will go forward and hope for a soft lead like last week-a few of the others may be wise to it and husstle him along a bit more this time.Secessio will need some pace on to win I think he looks a stayer and will win races here but probably over further.He's 3 weeks between runs here and it may be next time for him.Panko we know has a good turn of foot and much as I hate following up on "unlucky" horses I have to play again as the odds are similar or better to last week.4.80 is the best with bookies but they are getting her out on Betfair (5.30 now)just as they did last week so shop there.I've got her at 4.0 again.
Advised Bets
Rosehill Race 7 Panko 1.25 units to win at 4.20 or better.Shop on Betfair you should get set at 5.0 plus -ask for value don't just take what's offered
Tuesday 15 January 2013
Sandown & Wyong Today
I'll make an effort to get this blog out earlier on Wednesdays and Saturdays from now.Price movements today have extracted a lot of the value out of the horses I'm interested in so expect the blog to be up a couple of hours earlier on Metropolitan racedays.
Sandown and Wyong today and dry conditions at both venues so we should expect upgrades from Dead 4 to Good 3 at both tracks.
Sandown
Most of the races can be whittled down to a less than a handful of realistic chances but only two races I'm confident about with early markets.
Race 6 General Offer has been very good winning both starts this prep.He smashed his rivals in a Showcase -72 last time and rises to a Metropolitan -78 here.He's been raised 5 points to a rating of 71 and I would be pretty confident that a mark of 71 underrates his ability by at least 10 points.He can race on pace and has gate 1 here.The way he let down over the last 200m last time suggests the extra 100m will be all in his favour.I have him at 1.90 and managed to get on at 2.50 plus this morning.He's still available at 2.30 which still represents value.
Race 7 I thought Aliberani was woefully short here at 3.00.She has a chance here but I rate her at 4.80.Much more appealing are Durnford who has placed in city Saturday grade and who won his maiden effortlessly last time.He was sent north for the Brisbane carnival in the Winter but found that a step too far.This grade is ideal for him and Sandown should suit him too.Expect him to be very strong at the finish.Was 5.0 early but now 4.50 against my rated price of 3.80 so still enough there to work with.Denizen is a big improver this prep.He had plenty in hand when winning last time and whilst this is harder I think he's up to it.I have him 5.20 here and 7.50 is available at the TAB.We'll take these two against the field here at collective odds of around 2.80 against my rating of around 2.20.
Wyong
Race 6 Two lightly raced horses here taking on largely fully exposed sorts.Narcissus ran in the Pago Pago and the Slipper as a 2-y-o so it was a surprise to see him kick off his 3-y-o campaign in provincial a maiden here.At 1.85 he got the job done but it was hard work I thought.He's copped a rating of 75 for that win which judged on that performance alone is severe-if he's as good as they thought he was as a 2-y-o then it's fine but I suspect he isn't.Going for a 3kg claimer only reinforces that suspicion.At 2.50 he's too short.Elkay Star is a steady improver.He's won 3 from 9 including the last two and has 4 seconds to his credit.A mark of 65 looks lenient if you go through some of the horses he's raced against.He has pace but doesn't need to lead to win so can let the speed horses drawn outside him cross and track the likely good speed here from his good gate (drawn 4).The Wyong cutaway is insurance against been caught on the fence also.He appeals much more than Narcissus but even so I need better that the 3.0/3.20 on offer currently to be tempted.That's about right I think but we need to getting around 3.40/3.50 to be playing here.If shopping on Betfair I sure it will be available at some stage
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 6 General Offer 2.60 units to win at 2.20 or better (take the 2.30 on offer now)
Sandown Race 7 Durnford 1.30 inits to win at 4.10 or better ( take the 4.50 on offer now)
Denizen 0.95 units to win at 5.50 or better (take the 7.50 on offer now)
Wyong Race 6 Elkay Star 1.55 units to win at 3.45 or better (shop on Betfair for 3.55 plus you should get set there,monitor this market very closely as the fav could be a big blower)
Sandown and Wyong today and dry conditions at both venues so we should expect upgrades from Dead 4 to Good 3 at both tracks.
Sandown
Most of the races can be whittled down to a less than a handful of realistic chances but only two races I'm confident about with early markets.
Race 6 General Offer has been very good winning both starts this prep.He smashed his rivals in a Showcase -72 last time and rises to a Metropolitan -78 here.He's been raised 5 points to a rating of 71 and I would be pretty confident that a mark of 71 underrates his ability by at least 10 points.He can race on pace and has gate 1 here.The way he let down over the last 200m last time suggests the extra 100m will be all in his favour.I have him at 1.90 and managed to get on at 2.50 plus this morning.He's still available at 2.30 which still represents value.
Race 7 I thought Aliberani was woefully short here at 3.00.She has a chance here but I rate her at 4.80.Much more appealing are Durnford who has placed in city Saturday grade and who won his maiden effortlessly last time.He was sent north for the Brisbane carnival in the Winter but found that a step too far.This grade is ideal for him and Sandown should suit him too.Expect him to be very strong at the finish.Was 5.0 early but now 4.50 against my rated price of 3.80 so still enough there to work with.Denizen is a big improver this prep.He had plenty in hand when winning last time and whilst this is harder I think he's up to it.I have him 5.20 here and 7.50 is available at the TAB.We'll take these two against the field here at collective odds of around 2.80 against my rating of around 2.20.
Wyong
Race 6 Two lightly raced horses here taking on largely fully exposed sorts.Narcissus ran in the Pago Pago and the Slipper as a 2-y-o so it was a surprise to see him kick off his 3-y-o campaign in provincial a maiden here.At 1.85 he got the job done but it was hard work I thought.He's copped a rating of 75 for that win which judged on that performance alone is severe-if he's as good as they thought he was as a 2-y-o then it's fine but I suspect he isn't.Going for a 3kg claimer only reinforces that suspicion.At 2.50 he's too short.Elkay Star is a steady improver.He's won 3 from 9 including the last two and has 4 seconds to his credit.A mark of 65 looks lenient if you go through some of the horses he's raced against.He has pace but doesn't need to lead to win so can let the speed horses drawn outside him cross and track the likely good speed here from his good gate (drawn 4).The Wyong cutaway is insurance against been caught on the fence also.He appeals much more than Narcissus but even so I need better that the 3.0/3.20 on offer currently to be tempted.That's about right I think but we need to getting around 3.40/3.50 to be playing here.If shopping on Betfair I sure it will be available at some stage
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 6 General Offer 2.60 units to win at 2.20 or better (take the 2.30 on offer now)
Sandown Race 7 Durnford 1.30 inits to win at 4.10 or better ( take the 4.50 on offer now)
Denizen 0.95 units to win at 5.50 or better (take the 7.50 on offer now)
Wyong Race 6 Elkay Star 1.55 units to win at 3.45 or better (shop on Betfair for 3.55 plus you should get set there,monitor this market very closely as the fav could be a big blower)
Friday 11 January 2013
Magic Millions Day Part Two
Apologies today's blog is in two parts (part one covering Flemington was sent out earlier) but computer problems put me behind this morning.
Rosehill starts late today due to the extreme heat.There is a bit of rain around but doubt we'll be racing on anything other than a Good 3.
I'm not overly keen on this meeting but there is one horse I do want to back.
Rosehill Race 6 Most of these have found their level now and are fully exposed.The exception is Panko who bypassed Thursday's Gosford Cup to run here.She rounded the opposition up in great style last showing a terrific turn of foot.That win was particularly good as there was no pace in that race and she came from a clear last.There is no obvious pace here so maybe from gate 3 she can position handier.I've rated her a 4.0 chance and she is on offer at 4.60 now (better on Betfair)
Advised Bets
Flemington advised bets are in the earlier post
Rosehill Race 6 Panko 1.25 units @ 4.20 or better (shop on Betfair you should get 4.80 plus)
Rosehill starts late today due to the extreme heat.There is a bit of rain around but doubt we'll be racing on anything other than a Good 3.
I'm not overly keen on this meeting but there is one horse I do want to back.
Rosehill Race 6 Most of these have found their level now and are fully exposed.The exception is Panko who bypassed Thursday's Gosford Cup to run here.She rounded the opposition up in great style last showing a terrific turn of foot.That win was particularly good as there was no pace in that race and she came from a clear last.There is no obvious pace here so maybe from gate 3 she can position handier.I've rated her a 4.0 chance and she is on offer at 4.60 now (better on Betfair)
Advised Bets
Flemington advised bets are in the earlier post
Rosehill Race 6 Panko 1.25 units @ 4.20 or better (shop on Betfair you should get 4.80 plus)
Magic Millions Day Part one
I've had big problems with my computers this morning and as such I am running behind.Fortunately Rosehill is starting late to avoid the midday heat so I'm doing the blog in two parts.There will be an update covering Rosehill at around 1pm.
Magic Millions day up on the Gold Coast.I've never liked this meeting and this year is no exception.
It always looks a bookies benefit and particularly so this year.No thank you.
Flemington however,does make plenty of appeal today.It's posted a Dead 4 but with a fine day I expect an upgrade to a Good 3.
Race 2 I think Genuine Spin is too short here at 2.40 and Streets Of Seattle is too big at 4.40.I've got them much closer at 2.90 and 3.70 respectively.Warwarick,Lucky Angel and Manila Jewel are hopes but will go with Streets Of Seattle here.
Race 3 Again I think the favourite Tuscan Fire is too short here.He had all the favours last time in an easier race than this when left alone in front.He's a very live chance but more like a 2.70 chance than the 2.10 currently on offer.Module seemed to improve for Newitt last time but they revert to Thornton today to get the 3kg's claim.On the Bagot form the claim has him better off with Crafty Cruiser who chased him home but Crafty Cruiser had the better of the argument the previous time.I like Crafty Cruiser he just keeps running his race over and over again.He's generally 6.0 and I have him 4.80
Race 4 Octavia was very dominant last time at Moonee Valley and most unlucky previously.She is speedy enough for the drop back to 1000m not to worry me.Maybe a plus actually.I've got her rock solid 3.0 here so happy to play at 3.70
Race 7 Three against the field here.It Is Written,Gig and Deceiver.Collectively I have these 3 taking up 67% of the book but the current market has them at 54%.In other words I rate the chances off one of the 3 winning at 1.50 and the market rates them 1.83.That's a hefty margin in my favour I believe so I will "dutch" these 3 here.
Advised Bets
Flemington
Race 2 Streets Of Seattle 1.35 units to win @ 3.90 or better (take the 4.50 on offer now)
Race 3 Crafty Cruiser 1.05 units to win @ 5.0 or better (take the 6.0 on offer for 50% of the stake and shop on Betfair for better with the other 50%)
Race 4 Octavia 1.65 units to win @ 3.20 or better (take the 3.70 on offer now)
Race 7 It Is Written 1.40 units to win take the 4.80 on offer now
Gig 1.15 units to win take the 5.50 on offer now
Deceiver 1 unit to win take the 6.50 on offer now
Back later with more
Magic Millions day up on the Gold Coast.I've never liked this meeting and this year is no exception.
It always looks a bookies benefit and particularly so this year.No thank you.
Flemington however,does make plenty of appeal today.It's posted a Dead 4 but with a fine day I expect an upgrade to a Good 3.
Race 2 I think Genuine Spin is too short here at 2.40 and Streets Of Seattle is too big at 4.40.I've got them much closer at 2.90 and 3.70 respectively.Warwarick,Lucky Angel and Manila Jewel are hopes but will go with Streets Of Seattle here.
Race 3 Again I think the favourite Tuscan Fire is too short here.He had all the favours last time in an easier race than this when left alone in front.He's a very live chance but more like a 2.70 chance than the 2.10 currently on offer.Module seemed to improve for Newitt last time but they revert to Thornton today to get the 3kg's claim.On the Bagot form the claim has him better off with Crafty Cruiser who chased him home but Crafty Cruiser had the better of the argument the previous time.I like Crafty Cruiser he just keeps running his race over and over again.He's generally 6.0 and I have him 4.80
Race 4 Octavia was very dominant last time at Moonee Valley and most unlucky previously.She is speedy enough for the drop back to 1000m not to worry me.Maybe a plus actually.I've got her rock solid 3.0 here so happy to play at 3.70
Race 7 Three against the field here.It Is Written,Gig and Deceiver.Collectively I have these 3 taking up 67% of the book but the current market has them at 54%.In other words I rate the chances off one of the 3 winning at 1.50 and the market rates them 1.83.That's a hefty margin in my favour I believe so I will "dutch" these 3 here.
Advised Bets
Flemington
Race 2 Streets Of Seattle 1.35 units to win @ 3.90 or better (take the 4.50 on offer now)
Race 3 Crafty Cruiser 1.05 units to win @ 5.0 or better (take the 6.0 on offer for 50% of the stake and shop on Betfair for better with the other 50%)
Race 4 Octavia 1.65 units to win @ 3.20 or better (take the 3.70 on offer now)
Race 7 It Is Written 1.40 units to win take the 4.80 on offer now
Gig 1.15 units to win take the 5.50 on offer now
Deceiver 1 unit to win take the 6.50 on offer now
Back later with more
Thursday 10 January 2013
Swings and Roundabouts
Wednesday was an excellent day with both selections saluting at 6.0.Unfortunately it was back down to earth yesterday with Pipette performing miserably and Moriarty winning after I missed the price in the morning and so had to watch it win unbacked.Ouch!
Nevertheless the blog is well up on the month (8 units) so no real complaints.
Canterbury and Cranbourne tonight and pretty dreadful fare on offer as is customary through January.
There is nothing I can suggest at these meetings and I'll probably just be looking to lay anything I think is too short on the exchange.
Back tomorrow with a look at Saturday's racing
Nevertheless the blog is well up on the month (8 units) so no real complaints.
Canterbury and Cranbourne tonight and pretty dreadful fare on offer as is customary through January.
There is nothing I can suggest at these meetings and I'll probably just be looking to lay anything I think is too short on the exchange.
Back tomorrow with a look at Saturday's racing
Wednesday 9 January 2013
Gosford Cup Day
Nothing appeals particularly at Ballarat today so I'll concentrate on the Cup meeting at Gosford.Expect good fast Summer ground here today-perfect for punting!
Bit nervous with these two selections today as I've had my doubts about both of these ex UK horses at times.Both however were very solid winners last time and my figures tell me that there is some value in both so I've decided to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Gosford
Race 4 Have to be with Pipette here after her very dominant win last time.I like the drop back in trip and she gets the box seat run here.She was considered a classic filly in the UK and she did chase home Snow Fairy in the Goodwood Oaks trial so we know the class is there.She looked very willing last time so that rather cancelled out any nagging doubts I had about her resolve.I've got her rock solid 2.90 here so happy to take the 3.50 on offer.
Race 6 The price on Moriarty has just changed as I am typing this and at a best priced 3.5 I'm probably not playing now.I think he draws to get the right run here and he was very good winning last time.I've got him rated at 3.25 here but want around 3.70 to be involved.Was 3.80 when I began this post.Shop on Betfair for 3.85 plus or 3.75 with the bookies (probably unlikely now)
Advised Bets
Gosford Race 4 Pipette 1.70 units to win @ 3.20 or better ( take the 3.50 on offer now)
Gosford Race 6 Moriarty 1.55 units to win at 3.70 or better (shop on Betfair,price gone now with the bookies)
Bit nervous with these two selections today as I've had my doubts about both of these ex UK horses at times.Both however were very solid winners last time and my figures tell me that there is some value in both so I've decided to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Gosford
Race 4 Have to be with Pipette here after her very dominant win last time.I like the drop back in trip and she gets the box seat run here.She was considered a classic filly in the UK and she did chase home Snow Fairy in the Goodwood Oaks trial so we know the class is there.She looked very willing last time so that rather cancelled out any nagging doubts I had about her resolve.I've got her rock solid 2.90 here so happy to take the 3.50 on offer.
Race 6 The price on Moriarty has just changed as I am typing this and at a best priced 3.5 I'm probably not playing now.I think he draws to get the right run here and he was very good winning last time.I've got him rated at 3.25 here but want around 3.70 to be involved.Was 3.80 when I began this post.Shop on Betfair for 3.85 plus or 3.75 with the bookies (probably unlikely now)
Advised Bets
Gosford Race 4 Pipette 1.70 units to win @ 3.20 or better ( take the 3.50 on offer now)
Gosford Race 6 Moriarty 1.55 units to win at 3.70 or better (shop on Betfair,price gone now with the bookies)
Tuesday 8 January 2013
Sandown & Warwick Farm Today
Sandown and Warwick Farm today and with current weather conditions expect good fast conditions at both venues.
Moderate stuff on offer unfortunately and most races very difficult if not impossible to get an accurate handle on.I have found 2 races though that appeal.
Sandown Race 5
A few of these will be racing off higher marks as their careers progress but the two that stand out as been leniently rated at this stage are Medvedev ( rated 65) and Bass Straight (rated 62).
Medvedev looked very impressive beating older horses at Benalla albeit against some moderate types in wet conditions.Barrier 1 worked against him at Moonee Valley last time where he never really got a crack at them and finished full of running.Fast ground seemed no problem to him there.He gets gate 1 again here and will need some luck getting out to challenge but does have the excellent V.Duric steering.
Bass Straight was super impressive winning his maiden last time at Seymour.He charged home from a seemingly hopeless position and looked a horse to follow.The extra 300m here today is all in his favour and he seems sure to be involved here.Chad Schofield takes off 1.5kg's so that's another plus.
Digitalism is a hope as is Landale who pulled and was wide last time but ran very well.
My figures have both Medvedev and Bass Straight at 4.00 here.Bass Straight can still be backed at 6.00 with Bet365 and 5.50 elsewhere so I'm on him.I may save on Medvedev pending his price fluctuations but the advised bet is Bass Straight.
Warwick Farm Race 7
Reunite gets a lovely run on paper here from gate 2.He was used up a bit early from an outside gate last time but then eased back to find cover.All in all in was a very solid effort to finish fourth and that race was Saturday BM 85 grade and today he is in a midweek BM 70.He's no good thing but seems sure to be involved and 6.00 with Bet365 is simply to big. Plenty of 5.50 is available elsewhere against my rated price of 4.50
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 5 Bass Straight 1.25 units to win @ 4.20 or better (take the 6.0 on offer now)
Warwick Farm Race 7 Reunite 1.10 units to win @ 4.70 or better (take the 6.0 on offer now)
Moderate stuff on offer unfortunately and most races very difficult if not impossible to get an accurate handle on.I have found 2 races though that appeal.
Sandown Race 5
A few of these will be racing off higher marks as their careers progress but the two that stand out as been leniently rated at this stage are Medvedev ( rated 65) and Bass Straight (rated 62).
Medvedev looked very impressive beating older horses at Benalla albeit against some moderate types in wet conditions.Barrier 1 worked against him at Moonee Valley last time where he never really got a crack at them and finished full of running.Fast ground seemed no problem to him there.He gets gate 1 again here and will need some luck getting out to challenge but does have the excellent V.Duric steering.
Bass Straight was super impressive winning his maiden last time at Seymour.He charged home from a seemingly hopeless position and looked a horse to follow.The extra 300m here today is all in his favour and he seems sure to be involved here.Chad Schofield takes off 1.5kg's so that's another plus.
Digitalism is a hope as is Landale who pulled and was wide last time but ran very well.
My figures have both Medvedev and Bass Straight at 4.00 here.Bass Straight can still be backed at 6.00 with Bet365 and 5.50 elsewhere so I'm on him.I may save on Medvedev pending his price fluctuations but the advised bet is Bass Straight.
Warwick Farm Race 7
Reunite gets a lovely run on paper here from gate 2.He was used up a bit early from an outside gate last time but then eased back to find cover.All in all in was a very solid effort to finish fourth and that race was Saturday BM 85 grade and today he is in a midweek BM 70.He's no good thing but seems sure to be involved and 6.00 with Bet365 is simply to big. Plenty of 5.50 is available elsewhere against my rated price of 4.50
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 5 Bass Straight 1.25 units to win @ 4.20 or better (take the 6.0 on offer now)
Warwick Farm Race 7 Reunite 1.10 units to win @ 4.70 or better (take the 6.0 on offer now)
Friday 4 January 2013
Caulfield and Warwick Farm Today
Caulfield and Warwick Farm today and expect good fast racing ground at both venues.
I wouldn't describe the racing as tricky today as a lot of the races can be narrowed down to 3/4 serious hopes but I've found it impossible to find any value in early markets.So, unfortunately no advised bets today.As I said in my post when reviewing how the blog has done since it started I only put up bets that I'm risking my own money on-if I cannot find any value in early markets we simply have to pass.
The races that interested me today and an explanation of my thinking are as follows:-
Caulfield
Race 1 I like Evens but she does pull hard and this very competitive.Maglissa beat her last time but may have had the favours that day.Hazard was dominant first up but the race was uncompetitive and this is harder-nice filly though.Mrs Hadlee has a hope and Nella Fantasia is improving and has the scope to do much better-the claim and 1400m make her a very live hope.Too hard to call
Race 4 3 serious chances.Khalifa looks a bit short here at 2.20 but he is promising and will probably do better drawn out today in the smallish field.He was cluttered up inside horses last time and he's a big longstrider so maybe he is a bit better than he showed then.Al Aneed looked the winner at the furlong last time but seemed to die on his run.Reportedly lame after.He got very warm beforehand last time and over further and with a steadier pace may get pulling again.I don't want to oppose him here but I don't feel confident backing him at 3.20.Finishing Card found a soft race on Boxing Day and won with a bit in hand -this is much harder but he's a solid performer-might be the value here but I'm not playing at this stage.
Race 6 Tariana got the softest lead imaginable on Boxing Day and she simply had to win.This is a bit harder.She was very easy to back that day which confused me and I still don't know why.She may get a dolly lead again today but something niggles me about her and having foolishly passed her up when she won I'm not playing at 3.20 today.Follonica's a big price at 7.0 but she's been out for a few weeks and I don't know her fitness levels.
Race 7 Like Whisper Downs,Apres,Now and Zen and Crawfish in that order.Struggled to find any real value here though
Race 8 Like Fast and Free and The New Boy but at 3.30 and 4.5 respectively they looked to be priced about right
Warwick Farm
Race 3 Georgey Aeroplane was heavily backed on Boxing Day and bolted in.The 3.5 looks tempting but it's fast ground today and the stats suggest he's best in the wet.Couldn't oppose him though at that price.
Race 4 Sessions is hard to oppose but there is no value at 2.20
Race 5 Samui Lad ran along in front last time and did very well to tough it out.Riva De Lago and Hypurr were both very goodlast time and both are better suited here today.I think these are the 3 main hopes but Tromso ,Merlin Mustang and Thumbtacks are not completely dismissable so I'm passing
Race 6 Disciple was dominant winning last time and is an improved horse this prep.There is no value at 2.60 though but very hard to beat.Privately has the figures to beat him but will get back-has a sound hope though.Gangster's Choice is a live chance on his best form but I'm beginning to doubt his resolve.
Race 7 My Sabeel is the one to beat.she's racing in great heart but this is tougher opposition and 2.6 is rock bottom odds-too short to play
I wouldn't describe the racing as tricky today as a lot of the races can be narrowed down to 3/4 serious hopes but I've found it impossible to find any value in early markets.So, unfortunately no advised bets today.As I said in my post when reviewing how the blog has done since it started I only put up bets that I'm risking my own money on-if I cannot find any value in early markets we simply have to pass.
The races that interested me today and an explanation of my thinking are as follows:-
Caulfield
Race 1 I like Evens but she does pull hard and this very competitive.Maglissa beat her last time but may have had the favours that day.Hazard was dominant first up but the race was uncompetitive and this is harder-nice filly though.Mrs Hadlee has a hope and Nella Fantasia is improving and has the scope to do much better-the claim and 1400m make her a very live hope.Too hard to call
Race 4 3 serious chances.Khalifa looks a bit short here at 2.20 but he is promising and will probably do better drawn out today in the smallish field.He was cluttered up inside horses last time and he's a big longstrider so maybe he is a bit better than he showed then.Al Aneed looked the winner at the furlong last time but seemed to die on his run.Reportedly lame after.He got very warm beforehand last time and over further and with a steadier pace may get pulling again.I don't want to oppose him here but I don't feel confident backing him at 3.20.Finishing Card found a soft race on Boxing Day and won with a bit in hand -this is much harder but he's a solid performer-might be the value here but I'm not playing at this stage.
Race 6 Tariana got the softest lead imaginable on Boxing Day and she simply had to win.This is a bit harder.She was very easy to back that day which confused me and I still don't know why.She may get a dolly lead again today but something niggles me about her and having foolishly passed her up when she won I'm not playing at 3.20 today.Follonica's a big price at 7.0 but she's been out for a few weeks and I don't know her fitness levels.
Race 7 Like Whisper Downs,Apres,Now and Zen and Crawfish in that order.Struggled to find any real value here though
Race 8 Like Fast and Free and The New Boy but at 3.30 and 4.5 respectively they looked to be priced about right
Warwick Farm
Race 3 Georgey Aeroplane was heavily backed on Boxing Day and bolted in.The 3.5 looks tempting but it's fast ground today and the stats suggest he's best in the wet.Couldn't oppose him though at that price.
Race 4 Sessions is hard to oppose but there is no value at 2.20
Race 5 Samui Lad ran along in front last time and did very well to tough it out.Riva De Lago and Hypurr were both very goodlast time and both are better suited here today.I think these are the 3 main hopes but Tromso ,Merlin Mustang and Thumbtacks are not completely dismissable so I'm passing
Race 6 Disciple was dominant winning last time and is an improved horse this prep.There is no value at 2.60 though but very hard to beat.Privately has the figures to beat him but will get back-has a sound hope though.Gangster's Choice is a live chance on his best form but I'm beginning to doubt his resolve.
Race 7 My Sabeel is the one to beat.she's racing in great heart but this is tougher opposition and 2.6 is rock bottom odds-too short to play
Tuesday 1 January 2013
Strong Solid Profits and it's FREE
The blog started in October and with 2012 now over it's a good time to look back on how the selections have fared.
During October there were a total of 17 horses nominated as value runners (one as an EW bet).Level stake betting is a mugs game but as I didn't start suggesting staking units until the start of December I have used it as guide through both October and November.At level stakes through October stakes would have been 18.0 and returns 28.50.Winners included Dunaden in the Caulfield Cup and Ocean Park in the Cox Plate.
Profit on the month 10.50
Profit on turnover 58.33%
During November there were a total of 36 horses nominated as value runners.Level stakes on all of those is a layout of 36.0 for a return of 72.0.Winners during November included Green Moon in the Melbourne Cup.Most punter's complained of miserable results during the Flemington Spring Carnival but anyone following the blog would have had a handsome week and a fantastic month
Profit on the month 36.0
Profit on turnover 100%.
In December I decided to suggest staking levels and the odds that should be taken.Working to a bank of 100 units my general strategy is to stake to return 5% of the bank based on my assessed odds.Over time that is the strategy that has worked best for me and I would need a lot of convincing that there is a better staking plan around.
Advised in December were 21 selections for a total layout of 27.95 units.Returns were 34.73.In truth these returns can be increased if you shop around judiciously on Betfair with higher odds available at various stages of betting.I'm sticking to the advised prices for the purpose of record keeping but you can do better and it's important that you always try to get the very best price available.
Profit on the month 6.78
Profit on turnover 24.26%
If you follow this blog and stake as advised you will show solid profits over time.There will be losing runs and they may be extended but sound thorough form study, attention to detail and discpline will always get profits over time.The one thing you can be assured of is that I am never going to advise you back anything that I'm not risking my own money on as well.I've been doing this for a long time and if I wasn't making money out of it would have ditched it years ago.
Punting is both an intellectual and emotional challenge.It's hugely rewarding when it's going well and agonisingly frustrating when it's going badly.The key is to try to keep the emotion out of what you are doing stake properly and not to lose confidence in your judgement when things are going badly.
Here's to a really profitable and successful 2013
During October there were a total of 17 horses nominated as value runners (one as an EW bet).Level stake betting is a mugs game but as I didn't start suggesting staking units until the start of December I have used it as guide through both October and November.At level stakes through October stakes would have been 18.0 and returns 28.50.Winners included Dunaden in the Caulfield Cup and Ocean Park in the Cox Plate.
Profit on the month 10.50
Profit on turnover 58.33%
During November there were a total of 36 horses nominated as value runners.Level stakes on all of those is a layout of 36.0 for a return of 72.0.Winners during November included Green Moon in the Melbourne Cup.Most punter's complained of miserable results during the Flemington Spring Carnival but anyone following the blog would have had a handsome week and a fantastic month
Profit on the month 36.0
Profit on turnover 100%.
In December I decided to suggest staking levels and the odds that should be taken.Working to a bank of 100 units my general strategy is to stake to return 5% of the bank based on my assessed odds.Over time that is the strategy that has worked best for me and I would need a lot of convincing that there is a better staking plan around.
Advised in December were 21 selections for a total layout of 27.95 units.Returns were 34.73.In truth these returns can be increased if you shop around judiciously on Betfair with higher odds available at various stages of betting.I'm sticking to the advised prices for the purpose of record keeping but you can do better and it's important that you always try to get the very best price available.
Profit on the month 6.78
Profit on turnover 24.26%
If you follow this blog and stake as advised you will show solid profits over time.There will be losing runs and they may be extended but sound thorough form study, attention to detail and discpline will always get profits over time.The one thing you can be assured of is that I am never going to advise you back anything that I'm not risking my own money on as well.I've been doing this for a long time and if I wasn't making money out of it would have ditched it years ago.
Punting is both an intellectual and emotional challenge.It's hugely rewarding when it's going well and agonisingly frustrating when it's going badly.The key is to try to keep the emotion out of what you are doing stake properly and not to lose confidence in your judgement when things are going badly.
Here's to a really profitable and successful 2013
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