New Year's Day At Flemington & Randwick

Happy New Year!
Flemington is a Dead 4 and some rain this morning and more sweeping in from the west.I'm not at all keen betting on deteriorating tracks and that's a possibilty looking at the forecast and the radar.Randwick is a Dead 4 but seems sure to upgrade.

Flemington

I have no strong opinions in races 1 and 2.In race 3 I'm taking on Kaiser Sun at anything under 4.30.He got a soft time in the middle of the race last time and will have more pressure today with Fab Fevola upfront with him.He's gone up 9 points for the last win which is quite severe I think.have laid it for bits this am around 3.50.
Race 4 is interesting with He's Your Man making his Australian debut.He's got very useful staying form in Europe not top class but a rating of 90 is a very lenient starting point.Couldn't back him at 4.0 though over this much shorter trip but can't dismiss him either.Anlon is going well but 2.80 is short enough.The New Boy is very hard to catch but he'll likely get a dolly lead here.Others have hopes too.
Race 5.Unchain My Heart has obviously been set for this but I don't think the rain will help her.She get's back too which I never like in these long races unless I'm sure they are going to run along.3.50 is plenty short enough and if the rain sets in I'll probably take her on.Crafty Cruiser and Thubiaan look the overs but both are hard to catch.Looks a trappy race to me.
Race 6 is very hard.Apart from the toppy Ethiopia and Cascabel nothing else would really surprise here.
Race 7 I've layed Index Linked here at around 3.50 for bit's already.I'm happy to oppose him under 4.0.Electric Fusion looks mighty hard to beat and if it were still a genuine Dead 4 come post time I could back him around 2.40.
Race 8 The claim makes Longeron a worthy fav. here but 3.0 is plenty tight enough although I don't think I want to take him on at that price.Edgewood has ability but starts badly and he's 3kg's worse off with Longeron from last time allowing for young Maroney's claim.Probably doing nothing here.

Randwick
Nothing there at the moment but there may be a Tweet or two as the afternoon develops