Mild morning in Caulfield with a predicted high of 16 degrees and very breezy. Good 4 is posted but the wind may get it up to a Good 3 at some stage. The wind is blowing from the north so it'll be a factor today and front runners exposed to it are likely to be disadvantaged to a degree. It's hard to be dogmatic as the wind direction can change as can the strength. Currently 35 KMP but monitor what's going on as the afternoon progresses.
Race 1
I have Sullivan Bay on top here but she's on the drift this morning. As the likely leader she'll have the wind bias to deal with. She's also had a long prep and she was a bit flat at the business end last time. Forgeress, Every Faith and Divine Chills next in that order. Probably a race to sit out.
Race 2
I have Kiwia marked at 2.0 and Charlevoix at 3.90 with these 2 the only ones under double figures. Jocks will be desperate for cover here so they may end up walking along in the early sectionals. Not playing at this stage.
Race 3
Pass
Race 4
Tight handicap but happy to go with Kabrocco from a handy gate where he should get cover but not be too far off the front. It wasn't a pleasant watch if you took the shorts on him last time on the synthetic but I'm happy to put a line through that. I have him at 6.50 so happy to play with 9.50 the best current quote. Written Era (marked 8.3 and Tango Rock (marked 8.70) are next best on my figures
Suggested Bet: 0.70 units Kabrocco AT 7.0 or better. Have 50% of the stake with UBET at 9.50 and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 5
I have 3 marked under 10.00 here Poetic Ray at 4.0, Spanish Reef at 4.40 and Meat Traders at 7.20. I can only see upside for Poetic Ray who has plenty of scope to improve over the longer trip here. There is no reason that fast ground should present a problem and he's huge overs. He was 16.0 last night but money is coming now.
Suggested Bet: Poetic Ray 1.25 units at 4.50 or better . Take the 12.0 with Bet 365 with the SPG for 100% of the stake
Race 6
This is tricky. Surely Orachael is too short here around 3.30. she is one of many with a hope here but I have her much bigger. Not a race I like.
Race 7
We had no luck with Revolving Door last time. I have him marked at 2.50 and you should easily get that if the wind is counting against horses racing up front. I need a fair bit better to go in again though so no early bet advised. Nikitas and Wayanka next best
Race 8
If this were 1000m I might be tempted to give Lankan Rupee a go but I suspect the 1200m will find him out first up and I expect him to be easy to back. It's very tight this race. Supido, Keen Array, Savanna Amour, Choclate Holic and Ability all live hopes. I think Savanna Amour is probably the value go but at this stage I'm not involved so no bet advised.
Race 9
I have them marked Galaxy Raider 5.4, Portion Control 5.9, Cosmic Lights 6.7, Reneged 9.5, Black Sheep 10.3, Electric Fusion 12.1 and 18.0 bar these. Probably not playing here.
Good Luck
Friday 28 July 2017
Tuesday 25 July 2017
Sandown Hillside Wednesday
Slow 6 posted for the Hillside track and currently raining. Most of the rain missed this morning and it's only a modest amount falling now so probably Slow 6 will be the worst it gets.
No Betfair today so it'll be a quiet afternoon for me. 24 hours notice for a service outage is most unsatisfactory and Betfair need to look after their customers better. Had I known Monday I would have had a few days away midweek.
No definite bets today and overall it's a tricky day.
Good racing returns to the UK on the weekend and the Goodwood Festival runs Tuesday to Saturday next week so some light on the horizon after a pretty miserable month.
Good luck if your playing today
No Betfair today so it'll be a quiet afternoon for me. 24 hours notice for a service outage is most unsatisfactory and Betfair need to look after their customers better. Had I known Monday I would have had a few days away midweek.
No definite bets today and overall it's a tricky day.
Good racing returns to the UK on the weekend and the Goodwood Festival runs Tuesday to Saturday next week so some light on the horizon after a pretty miserable month.
Good luck if your playing today
Friday 21 July 2017
Flemington Saturday
Dry day in Melbourne with a high of 12 degrees forecast. Flemington starts off a Good 4 but it's a breezy morning so it may upgrade at some point.
Race 1
Edediyin ran in some good races in Ireland and started as short as 5.0 in last years Irish Derby. He gave weight and a beating to Kellstorm in Ireland last year and Kellstorm now his stablemate is rated 72 so starting out here off a mark of 74 he is a well handicapped horse. He was hard to rate first up over 1600m as he's obviously been bought as a stayer although he did win his maiden over 1700m as a two year old. If the market remains strong for him he'd have to be a strong chance. Dollar For Dollar makes some appeal but the price has moved from 4.60 yesterday to a best price of 3.80 now. I have him marked at 3.70 so there's no real fat in the price now. I expect him to have enough speed to cross from gate 8 and sit 2/3rd in the run. If he fails to get over or gets back then things will be much tougher for him. Gervais and Lamborghini are next best.
Race 2
Diapason should be unbeaten as in all of the three races she's not won she's been an unlucky loser. This is a tad harder than the race she ran second in last time at Sandown. Newitt is replaced by Ben Thompson which is surely a positive but the negative is the drop back to 1600m as this mare will only get better as her stamina is drawn out. I expect this will be her last run in a very good first prep.
I'd like a chance to retrieve my losses on her but this is a very tricky race and at 3.90 she is too short. The only one I can discount in this race is Forty Nine riddles. None of the others would surprise. Very trappy contest.
Race 4
Portman on top marked 3.80 but he's top priced at 2.80 this morning so I need to look elsewhere for a bet. I don't like horses jumping grades and generally avoid them but occasional I will make an exception and I'm backing Rebellious Lord here. His maiden win was very good and he really quickened up when asked. His comeback run was a good though not as impressive as in the maiden but it was on very testing ground. Back on the dry today suits much better.
Suggested Bet: 0.65 units at 8.50 or better. Have half the stake at 10 with Bet 365 with SPG and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Race 5
Both Ruby Sea and First Approach map badly and are drifting in betting to around the mark I have them 4.1 and 7.1 respectively. I want a bit more fat than that to play though as there is very little pressure upfront here and Lovani will be getting all the favours. St Franco is a promising horse as is last Sunday's maiden winner Ratoute Yutty and neither of these would surprise.
Race 6
Tricky -1200m down the straight and probably go steady early. Not betting but I have them marked
4.8 Divine Mr Artie, 5.2 Ruettiger, 6.1 Rough Justice, 6.3 Moss And Dale, 6.6 Ozi Choice and 25.0 bar these.
Race 7
Kilimanjaro is rated 90 and if he's to be a live Cups contender he'll need to win a couple of races to get his rating up to get in. He can get one of those wins today. He need not get as far out of his ground as he did when resuming and he should be too classy for these. Pacodali is respected but I'm very keen here.
Suggested Bet: 2.25 units at 2.40 or better-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 SPG for 65% of the stake and the rest at Top Fluc if you can get it otherwise monitor on Betfair
Race 8
Thought Invictum Domina mapped well enough here to be a bet. I have her marked at 5.50 Whyouask, Swampland, Moonlightes Choice (very short!), Princess Of Queens and Special Diva next best in that order.23.0 bar these
Suggested Bet: 0.90 units Invictum Domina at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 with Bet 365 SPG for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 9
I'm not committed here but thought Knowable was clearly the one to beat if fit and ready to go first up. I'd need to see some strong market support first before getting involved
Race 1
Edediyin ran in some good races in Ireland and started as short as 5.0 in last years Irish Derby. He gave weight and a beating to Kellstorm in Ireland last year and Kellstorm now his stablemate is rated 72 so starting out here off a mark of 74 he is a well handicapped horse. He was hard to rate first up over 1600m as he's obviously been bought as a stayer although he did win his maiden over 1700m as a two year old. If the market remains strong for him he'd have to be a strong chance. Dollar For Dollar makes some appeal but the price has moved from 4.60 yesterday to a best price of 3.80 now. I have him marked at 3.70 so there's no real fat in the price now. I expect him to have enough speed to cross from gate 8 and sit 2/3rd in the run. If he fails to get over or gets back then things will be much tougher for him. Gervais and Lamborghini are next best.
Race 2
Diapason should be unbeaten as in all of the three races she's not won she's been an unlucky loser. This is a tad harder than the race she ran second in last time at Sandown. Newitt is replaced by Ben Thompson which is surely a positive but the negative is the drop back to 1600m as this mare will only get better as her stamina is drawn out. I expect this will be her last run in a very good first prep.
I'd like a chance to retrieve my losses on her but this is a very tricky race and at 3.90 she is too short. The only one I can discount in this race is Forty Nine riddles. None of the others would surprise. Very trappy contest.
Race 4
Portman on top marked 3.80 but he's top priced at 2.80 this morning so I need to look elsewhere for a bet. I don't like horses jumping grades and generally avoid them but occasional I will make an exception and I'm backing Rebellious Lord here. His maiden win was very good and he really quickened up when asked. His comeback run was a good though not as impressive as in the maiden but it was on very testing ground. Back on the dry today suits much better.
Suggested Bet: 0.65 units at 8.50 or better. Have half the stake at 10 with Bet 365 with SPG and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Race 5
Both Ruby Sea and First Approach map badly and are drifting in betting to around the mark I have them 4.1 and 7.1 respectively. I want a bit more fat than that to play though as there is very little pressure upfront here and Lovani will be getting all the favours. St Franco is a promising horse as is last Sunday's maiden winner Ratoute Yutty and neither of these would surprise.
Race 6
Tricky -1200m down the straight and probably go steady early. Not betting but I have them marked
4.8 Divine Mr Artie, 5.2 Ruettiger, 6.1 Rough Justice, 6.3 Moss And Dale, 6.6 Ozi Choice and 25.0 bar these.
Race 7
Kilimanjaro is rated 90 and if he's to be a live Cups contender he'll need to win a couple of races to get his rating up to get in. He can get one of those wins today. He need not get as far out of his ground as he did when resuming and he should be too classy for these. Pacodali is respected but I'm very keen here.
Suggested Bet: 2.25 units at 2.40 or better-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 SPG for 65% of the stake and the rest at Top Fluc if you can get it otherwise monitor on Betfair
Race 8
Thought Invictum Domina mapped well enough here to be a bet. I have her marked at 5.50 Whyouask, Swampland, Moonlightes Choice (very short!), Princess Of Queens and Special Diva next best in that order.23.0 bar these
Suggested Bet: 0.90 units Invictum Domina at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 with Bet 365 SPG for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 9
I'm not committed here but thought Knowable was clearly the one to beat if fit and ready to go first up. I'd need to see some strong market support first before getting involved
Tuesday 18 July 2017
Sandown Hillside Today
It was an inglorious return for this blog last week and I was left feeling quite flat after Saturday's racing. I'd had a very good week previously but last week was a shocker.
Sandown was Soft 5 at 8am and there has been intermittent rain this morning with a bit more coming looking at the radar so I'd expect a downgrade. The rail is out 12m also. A tricky meeting initially it is made very difficult now with uncertainty around how the track will play.
Winter racing in Victoria is a real grind for the punter. Personally I like to see it all moved to the all weather after Warnambool until the start of the new season in August.The only turf meetings being for the jumpers and the awful highweight races. Trainers, Jockeys and Punters who have had a good trot could then do the sensible thing and jet off to Europe or the Americas without missing much. If you can't get away for whatever reason at least you'd have some consistency surface wise so you wouldn't be left up the air wondering like we are today.
No bets advised today. Back Saturday for Flemington and a couple of dry days forecast for Friday and Saturday so hopefully there will be some bets.
Sandown was Soft 5 at 8am and there has been intermittent rain this morning with a bit more coming looking at the radar so I'd expect a downgrade. The rail is out 12m also. A tricky meeting initially it is made very difficult now with uncertainty around how the track will play.
Winter racing in Victoria is a real grind for the punter. Personally I like to see it all moved to the all weather after Warnambool until the start of the new season in August.The only turf meetings being for the jumpers and the awful highweight races. Trainers, Jockeys and Punters who have had a good trot could then do the sensible thing and jet off to Europe or the Americas without missing much. If you can't get away for whatever reason at least you'd have some consistency surface wise so you wouldn't be left up the air wondering like we are today.
No bets advised today. Back Saturday for Flemington and a couple of dry days forecast for Friday and Saturday so hopefully there will be some bets.
Saturday 15 July 2017
July Cup At Newmarket
Newmarket is good to firm for the final day of the July meeting. There is excellent action also at Ascot, York and Chester. This corresponding Saturday has proved very costly to me over many years with far more negative days than positive. The July Cup only switched to being a Saturday fixture a decade or so ago before then the July meeting ran Tuesday to Thursday. I'll keep things simple today and concentrate on the Cup which is a race that I've traditionally done well in.
There is a potential equine superstar here in Caravaggio who overcame difficulties when winning at Royal Ascot and looked tremendous in doing so. I doubt that Harry Angel who finished second there can turn the table here. Limato is a terrific horse on his day and waltzed home in this last year. The Tin Man already has two G1 sprints under his belt and Tasleet was only a neck behind him at Ascot and is showing much improved form this year. It's a very strong field but nevertheless I have Caravaggio odds on at 1.80 and cannot get him any longer.
Suggested Bet: Caravaggio 2.75 units at 1.90 or better. Take the current 2.16 on Betfair for half the stake and average in with the balance. I expect this one to be very solid in betting late.
There is a potential equine superstar here in Caravaggio who overcame difficulties when winning at Royal Ascot and looked tremendous in doing so. I doubt that Harry Angel who finished second there can turn the table here. Limato is a terrific horse on his day and waltzed home in this last year. The Tin Man already has two G1 sprints under his belt and Tasleet was only a neck behind him at Ascot and is showing much improved form this year. It's a very strong field but nevertheless I have Caravaggio odds on at 1.80 and cannot get him any longer.
Suggested Bet: Caravaggio 2.75 units at 1.90 or better. Take the current 2.16 on Betfair for half the stake and average in with the balance. I expect this one to be very solid in betting late.
Friday 14 July 2017
Caulfield Today
Good 4 and a bright cool morning at Caulfield. Dry day forecast with wind not a factor.
Race 1
Data Point has obvious claims but is no value at all so I'm opposing. The big overs here is Emoji who gets a big weight swing with Orient Line who beat him last time. Emoji had a horrow passage that day at 21.0 with Bet365 is way over my figures.
Suggested Bet: Emoji 0.75units at 8.0 or better. take the 21.0 with Bet 365
Race 6
Stockdale takes a handy 3kg's of the back of Revolving Door and hopefully he can get over to track likely leader Toorak Cowboy without burning to much juice. He traveled like the best horse at the weights last time and was only nutted late. I have him a 3.50 shot here so 4.40 looks appealing.
Suggested Bet: Revolving Door 1.45 units at 3.70 or better. Have half the stake at 4.40 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee and average out the balance on Betfair.
Race 7
Supido is into the red now and I'm not really tempted to play at 1.75. The only other runner I have in single figures here is Lord Of The Sky who is returning from a tendon injury. If Supido gets back to around evens then I'll probably play but no bet advised as it stands.
Race 8
Sullivan Bay should cross and lead here and will be hard to pass. Divine Chills is the other main hope and I'm sure she'll go well but she seems best on a slow surface. If were a slow 5 I would have them closer and a slow 6 she would be marginally on top.
Suggested Bet: Sullivan Bay 1.65 units @ 3.20 or better. Take the 4.20 with Bet 365 with SP guarantee for half the stake and average the rest on Betfair. Divine Chills 0.75 units shop for best odds on Betfair.
Race 9
Schism is in great form and is a live hope but far too short on my figures. Airalign gets a good run up front or just behind the speed here and makes plenty of appeal.
Suggested Bet: Airalign 0.90 units @ 6.0 or better. Take the 10.0 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee for half the stake and average out the rest on Betfair.
Full program tonight in the UK including the G1 July Cup and the mighty Carravagio takes on the older horses for the first time. Hopefully I'll get time to preview a few races around 7pm
Race 1
Data Point has obvious claims but is no value at all so I'm opposing. The big overs here is Emoji who gets a big weight swing with Orient Line who beat him last time. Emoji had a horrow passage that day at 21.0 with Bet365 is way over my figures.
Suggested Bet: Emoji 0.75units at 8.0 or better. take the 21.0 with Bet 365
Race 6
Stockdale takes a handy 3kg's of the back of Revolving Door and hopefully he can get over to track likely leader Toorak Cowboy without burning to much juice. He traveled like the best horse at the weights last time and was only nutted late. I have him a 3.50 shot here so 4.40 looks appealing.
Suggested Bet: Revolving Door 1.45 units at 3.70 or better. Have half the stake at 4.40 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee and average out the balance on Betfair.
Race 7
Supido is into the red now and I'm not really tempted to play at 1.75. The only other runner I have in single figures here is Lord Of The Sky who is returning from a tendon injury. If Supido gets back to around evens then I'll probably play but no bet advised as it stands.
Race 8
Sullivan Bay should cross and lead here and will be hard to pass. Divine Chills is the other main hope and I'm sure she'll go well but she seems best on a slow surface. If were a slow 5 I would have them closer and a slow 6 she would be marginally on top.
Suggested Bet: Sullivan Bay 1.65 units @ 3.20 or better. Take the 4.20 with Bet 365 with SP guarantee for half the stake and average the rest on Betfair. Divine Chills 0.75 units shop for best odds on Betfair.
Race 9
Schism is in great form and is a live hope but far too short on my figures. Airalign gets a good run up front or just behind the speed here and makes plenty of appeal.
Suggested Bet: Airalign 0.90 units @ 6.0 or better. Take the 10.0 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee for half the stake and average out the rest on Betfair.
Full program tonight in the UK including the G1 July Cup and the mighty Carravagio takes on the older horses for the first time. Hopefully I'll get time to preview a few races around 7pm
Newmarket July Meeting -Day Two
Excellent racing today not just at Newmarket. Both Ascot and York have good cards.
I've run out of time today so no in depth analysis and no bets. Very close to putting up a handful of horses but in all cases I need better odds than the market currently offers.
Back around 11am with a look at tomorrows Caulfield meeting
I've run out of time today so no in depth analysis and no bets. Very close to putting up a handful of horses but in all cases I need better odds than the market currently offers.
Back around 11am with a look at tomorrows Caulfield meeting
Thursday 13 July 2017
Newmarket July Festival - Day 1
Day one of the July meeting and the going is posted as Good. Dry day with highs in the low 20's expected so I expect the ground to play more towards Good to Firm as the day progresses.
Race 1
Quite a few of these like to races prominently so it should be true test. Atty Pearse was given a fine ride by his claiming rider to win at Royal Ascot. He jumps out of handicap grade to G3 level here but he's very progressive and very much the one to beat here. Raheen House has the best official figures and this trip will suit him as will the expected tempo. He's something of a nearly horse though and I expect Atty Pearce to progress past him here today. Crowned Eagle was outclassed in the Derby but looked good winning a handicap and beating a decent horse before that. He's a hope if he can get the trip.
Suggested Bet 1.55 units Atty Pearse at 3.30 or better. Around 3.9 on Betfair and 3.75 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee
Race 2
Group 2 over 6 furlongs for two year olds. Rajasingh won the Coventry at Royal Ascot so is top on all rating but the principals were very bunched there at it may turn out to be a sub standard renewal.
I rarely bet in two year old races and this one looks very tricky.
Race 4
Poet's Word is a non runner and he was my choice here. Frontiersman is clearly the one to beat now but he's a bit short at evens so passing here.
The handicaps and the last race a Listed contest are all good races but difficult to unravel.
Race 1
Quite a few of these like to races prominently so it should be true test. Atty Pearse was given a fine ride by his claiming rider to win at Royal Ascot. He jumps out of handicap grade to G3 level here but he's very progressive and very much the one to beat here. Raheen House has the best official figures and this trip will suit him as will the expected tempo. He's something of a nearly horse though and I expect Atty Pearce to progress past him here today. Crowned Eagle was outclassed in the Derby but looked good winning a handicap and beating a decent horse before that. He's a hope if he can get the trip.
Suggested Bet 1.55 units Atty Pearse at 3.30 or better. Around 3.9 on Betfair and 3.75 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee
Race 2
Group 2 over 6 furlongs for two year olds. Rajasingh won the Coventry at Royal Ascot so is top on all rating but the principals were very bunched there at it may turn out to be a sub standard renewal.
I rarely bet in two year old races and this one looks very tricky.
Race 4
Poet's Word is a non runner and he was my choice here. Frontiersman is clearly the one to beat now but he's a bit short at evens so passing here.
The handicaps and the last race a Listed contest are all good races but difficult to unravel.
Tuesday 11 July 2017
Sandown Today
Sandown posts a Slow 6 and it's a dry day in Melbourne but a very cold morning so doubt it will improve that much. Not the most appealing card but there are some comments on a couple of races.
Race 5
My first thoughts here were that I wanted to try and find something to beat Yogi at around evens as he gets back and took an age to find top gear last time. He's up 9 points since he started out this prep but he does look very progressive and run on horses may well be suited here today. The Willybe gets an easy time upfront here probably and he looks the obvious alternative third up out to 2100m. Northern Journey's best effort would give him a chance but he's not a horse I could back. Manapine is a hope but probably wants it drier. May do something here but not committed at the moment.
Race 8
Galaxy Raider was desperately unlucky here last time but that's not the first time he's lost a race he should have won and he can certainly find trouble in running. He's up in grade here also and on a slower track. He's the obvious and must go close with any luck but there are enough negatives to stop me getting involved at anything under 3.20. Sweet Melody did well on her first prep with Weir and she'll probably improve again this time in. She looked really good first up over 1400m at Cranbourne last time and if she's ready to go and the market is positive about her she'll be a live chance.
I haven't backed anything early so there are no suggested bets as I never put anything up on the blog unless I'm committed to backing it myself
Race 5
My first thoughts here were that I wanted to try and find something to beat Yogi at around evens as he gets back and took an age to find top gear last time. He's up 9 points since he started out this prep but he does look very progressive and run on horses may well be suited here today. The Willybe gets an easy time upfront here probably and he looks the obvious alternative third up out to 2100m. Northern Journey's best effort would give him a chance but he's not a horse I could back. Manapine is a hope but probably wants it drier. May do something here but not committed at the moment.
Race 8
Galaxy Raider was desperately unlucky here last time but that's not the first time he's lost a race he should have won and he can certainly find trouble in running. He's up in grade here also and on a slower track. He's the obvious and must go close with any luck but there are enough negatives to stop me getting involved at anything under 3.20. Sweet Melody did well on her first prep with Weir and she'll probably improve again this time in. She looked really good first up over 1400m at Cranbourne last time and if she's ready to go and the market is positive about her she'll be a live chance.
I haven't backed anything early so there are no suggested bets as I never put anything up on the blog unless I'm committed to backing it myself
Sunday 9 July 2017
Relaunching The Blog
It's over two years since I stopped writing the blog 3 to 4 times a week. After I made the move back to Melbourne there was simply too much happening as regards family and health to find the time or the inclination to deal with it. Happily things are back on an even keel again. My Daughter has only a few months left before she finishes her VCE and my heart issues seem to be resolved now after having a pacemaker fitted at the end of last year. That was a big decision to make as I am now completely "pacemaker dependent" so it's only the small electronic devise implanted in my chest that is keeping me alive. It's working perfectly and the battery should last 8 to 10 years so until then hopefully there will be no problems.
Despite all the drama's going on last year was my most profitable since I moved to Australia twenty years ago. This year started well but the second quarter was very slow so I have a bit of catching up to do to match last year. The second half of the year is generally more profitably than the first for me so it may happen if I get a charge on over the next few months.
Some very positive changes with the minimum bet rules a real game changer and hopefully the move is followed in SA and WA -Queensland plan to introduce it but haven't yet. Tassmania came on board recently. The credit for this lies with Richard Irvine who has campaigned tirelessly for a better deal for punters and all of us who bet seriously owe him a big thank you. He's proof that if you have a sound argument and are persistent one dedicated person can make things happen. He deserves an AO for the work he's done and I hope he gets one sometime down the line.
Unfortunately there are some serious negatives that threaten to undermine things. Firstly the inevitable decision by Racing NSW to raise it's race fields fee by 33% and more during carnival time makes it very difficult for Betfair to continue operating on NSW racing as their business model simply cannot operate profitably when charged on a turnover basis at these kinds of rates. When Racing NSW need to up the prize money again they will simply raise the fee again. Betfair cannot be making anything on NSW now so why they are persisting baffles me. Only by pulling out do they have any hope of negotiating a fair deal. If they do pull out of NSW then turnover will drop sufficiently for the racing authorities to realize that exchanges aren't bookmakers and shouldn't be charged accordingly. I've virtually sacked NSW racing as I'm not playing on Betfair at these commission rates and the whole thing is going nowhere at the moment. Contrary to what many media pundits said and reported I thought last year's Autumn Carnival was by far the poorest I've experienced since I began following Australian racing 30 years ago.
The SA Government's decision to introduce a "point of consumption" tax which became effective last week threatens to be taken up by other states. Bookmakers are already paying GST and this tax is effectively double dipping. If this becomes widespread punters will be the losers. Bookies have shareholders to answer to and costs will be clawed back by increased margins. The current SA Government must be the worst in living memory and again betting companies need to show some teeth here by simply not betting on SA racing until this idiotic tax is repealed. I heard a rumour that Sportsbet were going to drop SA racing last week but they had listings for yesterday's meeting at Gawler when I looked on Friday night. I may sound like an apologist for Bookmakers and their interests but if you are a punter any charges levied on them are going to be passed on to you.
If you bet on Betfair outside of Australia the commission is a base 5%. Here we are paying bases of between 6 and 10% simply because Racing NSW chooses to charge the way it does. Their prize money is great but the punters are the ones paying for it.
Last Friday the Racing Post in the UK ran a full front page with the headine "Why The Whip Must Be Banned". The article was well written and presented a balanced argument which I totally disagree with. I am not a horseman but all of the ones I have spoken to over the years would be aghast at the idea of racing without whips. Besides the modern whip is not the same as the ones previously used.
My first thought when I saw this front page last week was "talk about the enemy within". I don't know who edit's the Racing Post nowadays but the general consensus from a handful of people I've spoken to over there was that it was an act of treachery and simply gives your enemy ammunition to use against you.
Here in Australia last week's Sandown meeting there was a slight delay to correct weight with jockey Dwayne Dunn viewing the stewards footage due to possible overuse of the whip by the winning rider.
This whip rule is lunacy in it's current form and needs to be got rid of pronto. Nobody wants to see horses flogged but if there are occasions of it the penalty must be against the rider. Clear guidelines are there but breaches should not threaten the result. Fines and suspensions that reflect the prize money and the riders experience is the simple way to administer this.
Horse Racing and it's administrators need to realize that you will never appease the anti-racing minority so why try. Racing is not followed by the majority anymore it's a minority who are interested nowadays but a very sizable minority nevertheless. Like all minorities you've got to show the rest that you are not going to be pushed around and have plenty of bullets to fire if it becomes necessary to do so. Racing generates employment for a considerable number of people. The people who do follow it get a lot of pleasure from it. Money grabs by administrators and governments threaten the currently healthy status quo and need to be vigorously resisted.
Winter racing in Australia is very modest fare so I'll only be putting the blog out generally for the midweek metro meeting and Saturdays until things pick up a bit in a few weeks. Newmarket's July festival runs for three days starting Thursday and I'll be looking at that each day.
Back on Wednesday trying to find a winner or two
Despite all the drama's going on last year was my most profitable since I moved to Australia twenty years ago. This year started well but the second quarter was very slow so I have a bit of catching up to do to match last year. The second half of the year is generally more profitably than the first for me so it may happen if I get a charge on over the next few months.
Some very positive changes with the minimum bet rules a real game changer and hopefully the move is followed in SA and WA -Queensland plan to introduce it but haven't yet. Tassmania came on board recently. The credit for this lies with Richard Irvine who has campaigned tirelessly for a better deal for punters and all of us who bet seriously owe him a big thank you. He's proof that if you have a sound argument and are persistent one dedicated person can make things happen. He deserves an AO for the work he's done and I hope he gets one sometime down the line.
Unfortunately there are some serious negatives that threaten to undermine things. Firstly the inevitable decision by Racing NSW to raise it's race fields fee by 33% and more during carnival time makes it very difficult for Betfair to continue operating on NSW racing as their business model simply cannot operate profitably when charged on a turnover basis at these kinds of rates. When Racing NSW need to up the prize money again they will simply raise the fee again. Betfair cannot be making anything on NSW now so why they are persisting baffles me. Only by pulling out do they have any hope of negotiating a fair deal. If they do pull out of NSW then turnover will drop sufficiently for the racing authorities to realize that exchanges aren't bookmakers and shouldn't be charged accordingly. I've virtually sacked NSW racing as I'm not playing on Betfair at these commission rates and the whole thing is going nowhere at the moment. Contrary to what many media pundits said and reported I thought last year's Autumn Carnival was by far the poorest I've experienced since I began following Australian racing 30 years ago.
The SA Government's decision to introduce a "point of consumption" tax which became effective last week threatens to be taken up by other states. Bookmakers are already paying GST and this tax is effectively double dipping. If this becomes widespread punters will be the losers. Bookies have shareholders to answer to and costs will be clawed back by increased margins. The current SA Government must be the worst in living memory and again betting companies need to show some teeth here by simply not betting on SA racing until this idiotic tax is repealed. I heard a rumour that Sportsbet were going to drop SA racing last week but they had listings for yesterday's meeting at Gawler when I looked on Friday night. I may sound like an apologist for Bookmakers and their interests but if you are a punter any charges levied on them are going to be passed on to you.
If you bet on Betfair outside of Australia the commission is a base 5%. Here we are paying bases of between 6 and 10% simply because Racing NSW chooses to charge the way it does. Their prize money is great but the punters are the ones paying for it.
Last Friday the Racing Post in the UK ran a full front page with the headine "Why The Whip Must Be Banned". The article was well written and presented a balanced argument which I totally disagree with. I am not a horseman but all of the ones I have spoken to over the years would be aghast at the idea of racing without whips. Besides the modern whip is not the same as the ones previously used.
My first thought when I saw this front page last week was "talk about the enemy within". I don't know who edit's the Racing Post nowadays but the general consensus from a handful of people I've spoken to over there was that it was an act of treachery and simply gives your enemy ammunition to use against you.
Here in Australia last week's Sandown meeting there was a slight delay to correct weight with jockey Dwayne Dunn viewing the stewards footage due to possible overuse of the whip by the winning rider.
This whip rule is lunacy in it's current form and needs to be got rid of pronto. Nobody wants to see horses flogged but if there are occasions of it the penalty must be against the rider. Clear guidelines are there but breaches should not threaten the result. Fines and suspensions that reflect the prize money and the riders experience is the simple way to administer this.
Horse Racing and it's administrators need to realize that you will never appease the anti-racing minority so why try. Racing is not followed by the majority anymore it's a minority who are interested nowadays but a very sizable minority nevertheless. Like all minorities you've got to show the rest that you are not going to be pushed around and have plenty of bullets to fire if it becomes necessary to do so. Racing generates employment for a considerable number of people. The people who do follow it get a lot of pleasure from it. Money grabs by administrators and governments threaten the currently healthy status quo and need to be vigorously resisted.
Winter racing in Australia is very modest fare so I'll only be putting the blog out generally for the midweek metro meeting and Saturdays until things pick up a bit in a few weeks. Newmarket's July festival runs for three days starting Thursday and I'll be looking at that each day.
Back on Wednesday trying to find a winner or two
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