Very quiet last week.Caught up on a few outstanding things unrelated to the racing.Just one bet advised all week,Cleverdude on Friday evening who was run down late so a LOSS of 2 units for the week.
Sale today is a Good 3 and it's dry there so expect fast ground.Canterbury is posted a Heavy 8 but it can dry out very quickly.No surprise to see this track get up to a Slow 6 or even better if it misses the few light rain showers that are possible.Probably won't play at Canterbury but I'll "tweet" the details if I do.
Sale
Race 1
Kievann has the most solid form.Girl In Flight won a modest maiden at Pakenham in very good style.Hard to be sure between these two.Both of these are around 2.60 which looks pretty close to the mark By the Grace is around 4.20 which looks far too short.
Race 5
Innocent Hero leads and will be very hard to run down.Odds on with most books but 2.0 with Bet 365.I need a bit more than that to consider backing it but wouldn't be opposing at current odds
Race 6
Sunset in Venice was a very strong winner of a modest maiden at Mornington.She's got plenty of upside but this is much tougher and at around 4.50 is plenty short enough.Young Girl (much better last time),Sheza A Single Girl (right in this if shows her best form) and both Spirit Of Soul and Tyanna resume and drop in grade.Tricky race
Race 7
Spelldancer will lead and that usually sets up a decent tempo.Dance For Cash has been racing really well this Spring but if the pace is on here she'll be vulnerable late as I think she's better at shorter.Royal Island is promising but made heavy weather of winning last week and did plenty wrong there being very wayward.Faster ground may help him but 3.60 looks far too short.Waterford Hill was OK resuming running on late but overall I think he needs further to show is best and 4.60 looks very skinny.Aurum Spirit will be well suited if they do run along here and is drawn to get a nice trail just off the pace.He's been a steady improver and although he'll be stretching out to further trips he's a very live hope here.His comeback effort at Cranbourne was very good and I have him priced at 6.0 here and 9.50 is on offer.
Advised Bet; Aurum Spirit 0.90 units at 6.50 or better-take the 9.50 with Sportsbet/IAS
Race 8
Tombola got a soft lead when winning last time at Mornington and may do so again here.The extra trip suits and whilst this a harder race I think he'll go well.Duplicity Jones won a city maiden before spelling and resumes after having a solid hitout in a recent 1550m trial whilst Rockfest won a standard maiden here last time.Maiden winners going straight into BM 70 races are not usually my go but both of these are likely to be highly competitive here.These three horses all sit around the 8.0 mark making them collectively around 2.66 which has me tempted but not yet committed.Early favourite here is Prince Jester around 3.50 which is at least three points less than the price I think he should be.If I play here I'll tweet.
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