Two meetings today plus G1 action in Ireland and France but surprisingly nothing appeals early doors.I won't be playing today so no bets or tweets later.
Yesterday was very annoying with bets on two at short quotes both who looked lost causes after they had gone 100 metres.I'm wary of putting up shorties on the blog and only do so when I'm really sure my figures are right.Anyway they took the cream off what has been a very decent if somewhat frustrating month.
Here's the breakdown for June
Australia Bets advised in 12 races
Winners 4
Stakes 15.35
Returns 30.26
Profit 14.91
No tweets on Australian racing this month
UK Bets advised in 38 races
Winners 10
Stakes 61.94
Returns 73.02
Profit 11.08
Tweets
Bets advised in 7 races
Winners 3
Stakes 11.70
Returns 16.87
Profit 5.17
The month's profit from all areas is 31.16 on an outlay of 88.99 around 35% .
Normally I'd be delighted with a month like this but there have been a crazy proportion of seconds this month and most of the ones advised at shorts quotes have bombed.
After all the poor form in the early part of the year and some serious health issues to have re adjusted to I do feel that I've somehow managed to fight back very strongly this month.
Let's hope the British weather is kind over the next three months and there's not much rain.
Sunday 30 June 2013
Saturday 29 June 2013
Irish Derby and Saturday's UK Racing
A nice winner earlier today at Moonee Valley advised at 7.50 this morning and returned an SP of 3.60. The blog's only UK selection yesterday ran miserably but there were two "tweets" last night,Sioux Chieften rated 2.70- 1.85 units bet advised finished third under a very poor tactical ride and Bondesire rated 1.90- 2.65 unit bet advised at 2.30 (touched 2.50 before crunched into 2.0) was a solid winner.The blog lost 2.20 units and the tweets made a profit of 1.60 units.Today's Australian blog returned a profit of 5.50 units.
Six UK meetings again today and Irish Derby day at The Curragh.The rain has gone and it's a dry day so expect some better ground than yesterday.Newcastle will still be on the soft side,Chester starts Good to Soft but is drying and I doubt it'll be far from Good there.Other venues start no worse than good and will continue to dry out.
Only two advised bets at this stage and unfortunately they are shorties but very sound propositions nevertheless.There are other possibilities today but I want to see how the ground is playing before committing so any further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Chester
Race 1
Salford Red Devil improved a ton for the experience of his debut run when bolting up here last time.
He's not drawn wide today so won't have to burn so much petrol early and he's mighty hard to beat here.My figures have him at 1.55 and 1.80 is available
Advised Bet : Salford Red Devil 3.0 units at 1.70 or better-take the 1.80 now for 65% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the rest but don't wait too late.Likely to start well odds on.
Irish Derby
Ruler Of The world was value for more than the official winning distance when comfortably landing the Derby.His turn of foot between the 600 and 300 metres was pretty devastating.Libertarian ran on well but he a high class grinder a real Leger horse and he won't have the speed to match the O'Brien horse.A solid Derby winner coming here and meeting horses he's already beaten would get the job done 60% of the time at least.I have him maximum 1.80 and Paddy Power (Sportsbet and IAS if you are in Australia) have him at 2.20.
Advised Bet: Ruler Of The World 2.75 units at 1.90 or better-take the 2.20 now he should and probably will be odds on
There will almost certainly be more later via Twitter
Six UK meetings again today and Irish Derby day at The Curragh.The rain has gone and it's a dry day so expect some better ground than yesterday.Newcastle will still be on the soft side,Chester starts Good to Soft but is drying and I doubt it'll be far from Good there.Other venues start no worse than good and will continue to dry out.
Only two advised bets at this stage and unfortunately they are shorties but very sound propositions nevertheless.There are other possibilities today but I want to see how the ground is playing before committing so any further bets will be sent via Twitter.
Chester
Race 1
Salford Red Devil improved a ton for the experience of his debut run when bolting up here last time.
He's not drawn wide today so won't have to burn so much petrol early and he's mighty hard to beat here.My figures have him at 1.55 and 1.80 is available
Advised Bet : Salford Red Devil 3.0 units at 1.70 or better-take the 1.80 now for 65% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the rest but don't wait too late.Likely to start well odds on.
Irish Derby
Ruler Of The world was value for more than the official winning distance when comfortably landing the Derby.His turn of foot between the 600 and 300 metres was pretty devastating.Libertarian ran on well but he a high class grinder a real Leger horse and he won't have the speed to match the O'Brien horse.A solid Derby winner coming here and meeting horses he's already beaten would get the job done 60% of the time at least.I have him maximum 1.80 and Paddy Power (Sportsbet and IAS if you are in Australia) have him at 2.20.
Advised Bet: Ruler Of The World 2.75 units at 1.90 or better-take the 2.20 now he should and probably will be odds on
There will almost certainly be more later via Twitter
Friday 28 June 2013
Moonee Valley today
Rosehill is deluged and racing there is off.Moonee Valley is posted a Dead 5,The radar is clear but there is a small chance of showers later.May upgrade to Dead 4.
Just the one advised bet at this stage although there may be tweets for a couple of other races.
Moonee Valley
Race 7
The Tasmanian connection worked last week and I fancy it's chances of doing so again this week.Black'N' Tough is 9 wins and 3 placings from 15 starts-7 of the wins around 1150/1200m.
She's rated slightly lower in Victoria than she is in her native Tasmania and looks very fairly handicapped here.She draws well and races on pace.I have here favourite here at 5.0 but she is on offer at 7.50.
'
Advised Bet: Black 'N' Tough 1 unit to win at 5.50 or better-take the 7.50 for 60% and monitor the rest on Betfair
Just the one advised bet at this stage although there may be tweets for a couple of other races.
Moonee Valley
Race 7
The Tasmanian connection worked last week and I fancy it's chances of doing so again this week.Black'N' Tough is 9 wins and 3 placings from 15 starts-7 of the wins around 1150/1200m.
She's rated slightly lower in Victoria than she is in her native Tasmania and looks very fairly handicapped here.She draws well and races on pace.I have here favourite here at 5.0 but she is on offer at 7.50.
'
Advised Bet: Black 'N' Tough 1 unit to win at 5.50 or better-take the 7.50 for 60% and monitor the rest on Betfair
Friday's UK Racing
Six meetings to go at today-three afternoon and three evening.
A band of rain has affected or will affected most venues so there is no guarantee of fast ground anywhere despite early postings of Good or Good to Firm.Anyone reading this blog regularly will know how critically I view underfoot conditions so with so much uncertainty as to the affect of the rain today there is only one advised bet at this stage.
I am not keen on the afternoon meetings but all three evening fixtures have possibilities depending on the weather.There may be a few I like later so I will tweet through any I'm backing.
Newcastle
Race 3
Listed event for fillies and mares.I'm very keen on Prussian here.She's back over 10 furlongs after failing to stay over 12 last time.She had them cold there at the 2 furlong point and she clearly failed through lack of stamina.Very little pace on here and she races prominently so most of them will be conceding first run.She has run to her rating on heavy ground before so ground conditions are not likely to impede her.I have her rated 2.25 and she is available at 2.75 generally.
Advised Bet: Prussian 2.20 units at 2.35 or better.Take the 2.75 for 60% of stake and monitor on
Betfair with the balance
Evening meetings are good tonight and hopefully some winners once ground conditions are known.
Expect a few "Tweets"
A band of rain has affected or will affected most venues so there is no guarantee of fast ground anywhere despite early postings of Good or Good to Firm.Anyone reading this blog regularly will know how critically I view underfoot conditions so with so much uncertainty as to the affect of the rain today there is only one advised bet at this stage.
I am not keen on the afternoon meetings but all three evening fixtures have possibilities depending on the weather.There may be a few I like later so I will tweet through any I'm backing.
Newcastle
Race 3
Listed event for fillies and mares.I'm very keen on Prussian here.She's back over 10 furlongs after failing to stay over 12 last time.She had them cold there at the 2 furlong point and she clearly failed through lack of stamina.Very little pace on here and she races prominently so most of them will be conceding first run.She has run to her rating on heavy ground before so ground conditions are not likely to impede her.I have her rated 2.25 and she is available at 2.75 generally.
Advised Bet: Prussian 2.20 units at 2.35 or better.Take the 2.75 for 60% of stake and monitor on
Betfair with the balance
Evening meetings are good tonight and hopefully some winners once ground conditions are known.
Expect a few "Tweets"
Thursday 27 June 2013
Thursday's UK Racing
Plenty to go at today but once again I'm struggling to find any value.The afternoon meetings at Newcastle,Warwick and Yarmouth should begin on fast Summer ground but there is rain moving from the west later-Warwick the afternoon meeting most likely to be affected later in the day.This evening Hamilton will be rain affected (raining now) and Leicester seems likely to be.I'm keen on Tight Fit in the 7.10 at Leicester but I don't want to bet on wet ground and hopes of good ground seem to be fading.No advised bets today but will tweet if the weather situation forces a rethink.
Sorry it's been a quiet week but I only put up on the blog horses that I am definitely backing myself.It's annoying when it's midsummer and there's masses of racing when you can't find anything you want to back but there will be plenty coming along soon enough.
Back tomorrow
Sorry it's been a quiet week but I only put up on the blog horses that I am definitely backing myself.It's annoying when it's midsummer and there's masses of racing when you can't find anything you want to back but there will be plenty coming along soon enough.
Back tomorrow
Wednesday 26 June 2013
Wednesday's UK Racing
A dry day forecast virtually everywhere so good fast Summer conditions at all three turf venues today.
I usually find a few that I like on this day most years with the Bibury Cup meeting at Salisbury having been pretty good to me in the past.Carlisle have their Carlisle Bell meeting to complement Salisbury this afternoon so it's pretty decent fare for the Wednesday after Ascot.
Surprisingly I can't find anything I want to back at this early stage.One or two did interest me but they are shorties and there are niggling negatives attached to them so I'm passing.
Today's Australian selection was 19.0 when I posted this morning and returned 9.0.Could only manage second unfortunately.
There may be tweets but it's unlikely as it looks a difficult day to find value.
I usually find a few that I like on this day most years with the Bibury Cup meeting at Salisbury having been pretty good to me in the past.Carlisle have their Carlisle Bell meeting to complement Salisbury this afternoon so it's pretty decent fare for the Wednesday after Ascot.
Surprisingly I can't find anything I want to back at this early stage.One or two did interest me but they are shorties and there are niggling negatives attached to them so I'm passing.
Today's Australian selection was 19.0 when I posted this morning and returned 9.0.Could only manage second unfortunately.
There may be tweets but it's unlikely as it looks a difficult day to find value.
Tuesday 25 June 2013
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Both venues post wet tracks.Sandown is a Heavy 8 but dry and there is a possibility of it getting into the slow range but sure to be a genuinely wet track.Canterbury is a Heavy 9 and does dry out really quickly but there is still rain around on the Radar so for any serious improvement the rain will need to stop.
There are a couple of possibilities at Canterbury but at this stage no advised bets there and only a slight chance that I'll be betting there today.Will tweet if I do.
Sandown host a typical Winter midweek metro program.I'm looking at one of the later races (race 7) but haven't quite committed at this stage so will tweet later if I'm betting.Meanwhile just one very small speculative bet earlier.
Sandown
Race 6
I'm sure that Klishina is the best horse in this race but she was very poor last time and the time before and may need spelling.She looked pretty legless in the wet last time too but she was 6 weeks between runs so maybe fitness was the issue.Obviously there are a few negatives but the positive is 19.0 on offer with Bet 365.That's big enough to tempt me as i don't think a filly who was arguably unlucky not to have beaten subsequent Guineas winner Ferlax a few runs back should be double figures against this field.
Advised Bet 0.50 units at 11.0 or better Klishina-I've taken some of the 19.0 with Bet365 (33%) and will monitor the rest
There are a couple of possibilities at Canterbury but at this stage no advised bets there and only a slight chance that I'll be betting there today.Will tweet if I do.
Sandown host a typical Winter midweek metro program.I'm looking at one of the later races (race 7) but haven't quite committed at this stage so will tweet later if I'm betting.Meanwhile just one very small speculative bet earlier.
Sandown
Race 6
I'm sure that Klishina is the best horse in this race but she was very poor last time and the time before and may need spelling.She looked pretty legless in the wet last time too but she was 6 weeks between runs so maybe fitness was the issue.Obviously there are a few negatives but the positive is 19.0 on offer with Bet 365.That's big enough to tempt me as i don't think a filly who was arguably unlucky not to have beaten subsequent Guineas winner Ferlax a few runs back should be double figures against this field.
Advised Bet 0.50 units at 11.0 or better Klishina-I've taken some of the 19.0 with Bet365 (33%) and will monitor the rest
Monday 24 June 2013
Tuesday's UK Racing
Modest stuff on offer today.
I was struggling to get motivated yesterday after Ascot last week.
I'm taking a day off today just to freshen up a little.
Back tomorrow
I was struggling to get motivated yesterday after Ascot last week.
I'm taking a day off today just to freshen up a little.
Back tomorrow
Weekly Round Up
Royal Ascot and Flemington's Melbourne Cup carnival are my two biggest weeks of the year.Providing the ground is decent I am very bullish about my chances as there is always plenty of value around.Ascot this year was frustrating from a punting point of view with only a very modest profit.Here's the breakdown:-
Royal Ascot
Out of 30 races at the meeting the blog advised bets in 15.
Staked 24.74 units
Returns 25.05 units
Profit 0.31 units
Out of the 15 races where bets were advised there were 4 winners.Of the remaining 11 races there were frustratingly 7 seconds and the heavily backed Ektihaab who slipped up and unseated his rider.Considering the winner there,the ill fated Thomas Chippendale was trounced by Ektihaab the run previously I think it's fair to say he would have gone very close.The analysis was very accurate and with a tad more luck in running it could have been a real bonanza week.
Australia
Just 3 selections last week.2 winners and a most unlucky second.
Staked 4.75 units
Returns 18.515 units
Profit 13.765 units
Tweets
2 selections
Staked 3.30 units
Returns 5.775 units
Profit 2.475 units
I'm covering the evening fixtures at Thirsk and Windsor tonight and if there is anything of interest it will be sent via twitter
Royal Ascot
Out of 30 races at the meeting the blog advised bets in 15.
Staked 24.74 units
Returns 25.05 units
Profit 0.31 units
Out of the 15 races where bets were advised there were 4 winners.Of the remaining 11 races there were frustratingly 7 seconds and the heavily backed Ektihaab who slipped up and unseated his rider.Considering the winner there,the ill fated Thomas Chippendale was trounced by Ektihaab the run previously I think it's fair to say he would have gone very close.The analysis was very accurate and with a tad more luck in running it could have been a real bonanza week.
Australia
Just 3 selections last week.2 winners and a most unlucky second.
Staked 4.75 units
Returns 18.515 units
Profit 13.765 units
Tweets
2 selections
Staked 3.30 units
Returns 5.775 units
Profit 2.475 units
I'm covering the evening fixtures at Thirsk and Windsor tonight and if there is anything of interest it will be sent via twitter
Saturday 22 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day Five
Quiet day for the blog at Ascot yesterday with bets only in the last event and Dream Tune ran really well but only second so a small 1.53 unit loss there.Those following on "Twitter" were sent through two 1.65 unit bets at Redcar with The Rectifier winning comfortably at 3.50 and Blackball putting in a thoroughly mulish display and finishing in the ruck.Tweets produced a 2.47 unit profit on the day.
Mixed fortunes in Australia earlier today-two selections Secessio very unlucky running second after being almost brought down early in the straight after clipping heels and all momentum lost.The Cleaner advised as 3.80 chance got the job done at an amazing Betfair SP of 10.0.I averaged 8.50 so for the purpose of record keeper that's what I've settled it at for the purpose of the blog's profit/loss.Australian profit on the day 8.73 units.
Ascot posted Good To Firm after 2mm of overnight rain.There are some showers forecast for early afternoon but unless they are are very heavy they should just freshen the ground up a bit.
Chesham Stakes
Bunker,Somewhat and Autumn Lily look the three most likely but the early betting reflects that and all in all a race to watch and learn from I think.
Hardwicke Stakes
The gelding operation over the Winter seems to have done the trick with Ektihaam.He ran really well behind Al Kazeem on his comeback run and really ought to have finished second there.Last time he made all over course and distance to slam Thomas Chippendale 6 lengths in a strongly contested Listed event.I expect him to lead and be very hard to pass here.2.80 on my figures.Mount Athos is a really likeable type but this trip is short of his best and should he win here he'll surely be weighted out of Melbourne Cup consideration.Sir John Hawkwood is another really likeable sort but he'll be giving away first run to Ektihaam and does have to improve again a fair bit to win this.
Advised Bet: Ektihaab 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-shop on Betfair currently 3.90
Diamond Jubilee Stakes
Sea Siren represents Australia and at her very best would be a solid chance here.She ran below form when sent to Honk Kong and has had mixed form recently and for better or worse I'm not overly keen on her chances here,Society Rock is an Ascot specialist and his comeback win at York was very good as connections were sure he would need the race.Gordon lord Byron ran very well there too stuck out on a limb most of the race and the stiff 6 furlongs here will suit his style of running.I'm not giving up on Mince as I don't think she has been fully fit both starts this campaign -this is her target race.There are other hopes but I'll take three against the field here.
Advised Bets: Society Rock 1.10 units at 4.70 or better-take the 5.40 on Betfair now
Gordon Lord Byron 0,65 units at 8.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Mince 0.50 units at 10.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Wokingham Handicap
5 against the field here in Gabriels Lad ,Rex Imperator,York Glory,Khubala and Shropshire
Advised Bets: Gabriels Lad 0.60 units at 8.50 or better
Rex Imperator 0.50 units at 10.0 or better
York Glory 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Khubala 0.30 units at 17.0 or better
Shropshire 0.30 units at 17.0 or better
Betfair is the only place to shop here
Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes
I'm a great Rye House fan and think he has plenty more to offer.Lahaag too is a horse with potential to do better especially over this trip.stencive is the other main hope but the gate is poor so I'll just save with him
Advised bets: Rye House 1 unit to win at 5.0 or better-around 7.0 now on Betfair is ok
Lahaag 0.65 units at 7.50 or better-11.0 now on Betfair
Stencive saver approx 0.20 units
Queen Alexandra Stakes
Shawardi ran second here last year.Meanwhile he's been campaigned successfully in Australia before returning to France.He ran appallingly on his comeback race at Longchamp last month so who knows what's turning up here today?He's clearly got the best credentials here if he's right and there are not many you can fancy in this race.If he runs to the form of his second last year he's a 2.70 chance here but obviously there is a doubt.4.50 is big enough to tempt me though.
Advised Bet: Shawardi 1.10 units to win at 4.50 or better-monitor on Betfair-4.60 now
Any further advised bets at today's other meetings will be sent via Twitter
Mixed fortunes in Australia earlier today-two selections Secessio very unlucky running second after being almost brought down early in the straight after clipping heels and all momentum lost.The Cleaner advised as 3.80 chance got the job done at an amazing Betfair SP of 10.0.I averaged 8.50 so for the purpose of record keeper that's what I've settled it at for the purpose of the blog's profit/loss.Australian profit on the day 8.73 units.
Ascot posted Good To Firm after 2mm of overnight rain.There are some showers forecast for early afternoon but unless they are are very heavy they should just freshen the ground up a bit.
Chesham Stakes
Bunker,Somewhat and Autumn Lily look the three most likely but the early betting reflects that and all in all a race to watch and learn from I think.
Hardwicke Stakes
The gelding operation over the Winter seems to have done the trick with Ektihaam.He ran really well behind Al Kazeem on his comeback run and really ought to have finished second there.Last time he made all over course and distance to slam Thomas Chippendale 6 lengths in a strongly contested Listed event.I expect him to lead and be very hard to pass here.2.80 on my figures.Mount Athos is a really likeable type but this trip is short of his best and should he win here he'll surely be weighted out of Melbourne Cup consideration.Sir John Hawkwood is another really likeable sort but he'll be giving away first run to Ektihaam and does have to improve again a fair bit to win this.
Advised Bet: Ektihaab 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-shop on Betfair currently 3.90
Diamond Jubilee Stakes
Sea Siren represents Australia and at her very best would be a solid chance here.She ran below form when sent to Honk Kong and has had mixed form recently and for better or worse I'm not overly keen on her chances here,Society Rock is an Ascot specialist and his comeback win at York was very good as connections were sure he would need the race.Gordon lord Byron ran very well there too stuck out on a limb most of the race and the stiff 6 furlongs here will suit his style of running.I'm not giving up on Mince as I don't think she has been fully fit both starts this campaign -this is her target race.There are other hopes but I'll take three against the field here.
Advised Bets: Society Rock 1.10 units at 4.70 or better-take the 5.40 on Betfair now
Gordon Lord Byron 0,65 units at 8.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Mince 0.50 units at 10.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Wokingham Handicap
5 against the field here in Gabriels Lad ,Rex Imperator,York Glory,Khubala and Shropshire
Advised Bets: Gabriels Lad 0.60 units at 8.50 or better
Rex Imperator 0.50 units at 10.0 or better
York Glory 0.40 units at 13.0 or better
Khubala 0.30 units at 17.0 or better
Shropshire 0.30 units at 17.0 or better
Betfair is the only place to shop here
Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes
I'm a great Rye House fan and think he has plenty more to offer.Lahaag too is a horse with potential to do better especially over this trip.stencive is the other main hope but the gate is poor so I'll just save with him
Advised bets: Rye House 1 unit to win at 5.0 or better-around 7.0 now on Betfair is ok
Lahaag 0.65 units at 7.50 or better-11.0 now on Betfair
Stencive saver approx 0.20 units
Queen Alexandra Stakes
Shawardi ran second here last year.Meanwhile he's been campaigned successfully in Australia before returning to France.He ran appallingly on his comeback race at Longchamp last month so who knows what's turning up here today?He's clearly got the best credentials here if he's right and there are not many you can fancy in this race.If he runs to the form of his second last year he's a 2.70 chance here but obviously there is a doubt.4.50 is big enough to tempt me though.
Advised Bet: Shawardi 1.10 units to win at 4.50 or better-monitor on Betfair-4.60 now
Any further advised bets at today's other meetings will be sent via Twitter
Friday 21 June 2013
Flemington & Randwick Today
Flemington is a Dead 5 and drying out so probably a Dead 4 is likely for the majority of the meeting.
Randwick is a Heavy 9 and it's raining hard in Sydney.It'll be a challenge to get through the day.
Flemington
Race 6
The Cleaner crosses over from Tasmania and find a nice race in which he is advantaged at the weights.Gate 16 is no spoil but he'll go forward and sit outside Lord Durante who will lead from gate 1.He's a very good fresh horse and has trialled ready for this.I've got him 3.70 here and he's 5.0 plus on Betfair
Advised Bet 1.35 units The Cleaner at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Randwick
Race 1
2600m on a very heavy track will take so getting here today.The most likely "last man standing" is I think Secessio who likes the wet and will just keep running.3.50 on my figures and available at 5.0
Advised Bet 1.40 units Secessio at 3.70 or better- take 50% at the 5.0 now and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Randwick is a Heavy 9 and it's raining hard in Sydney.It'll be a challenge to get through the day.
Flemington
Race 6
The Cleaner crosses over from Tasmania and find a nice race in which he is advantaged at the weights.Gate 16 is no spoil but he'll go forward and sit outside Lord Durante who will lead from gate 1.He's a very good fresh horse and has trialled ready for this.I've got him 3.70 here and he's 5.0 plus on Betfair
Advised Bet 1.35 units The Cleaner at 4.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Randwick
Race 1
2600m on a very heavy track will take so getting here today.The most likely "last man standing" is I think Secessio who likes the wet and will just keep running.3.50 on my figures and available at 5.0
Advised Bet 1.40 units Secessio at 3.70 or better- take 50% at the 5.0 now and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Royal Ascot Day Four
The Ascot course was given 4mm of irrigation overnight but with no rain in sight expect rattling fast ground again today.Good to Firm posted this morning.
Albany Stakes
Sandiva's Naas win in a Listed event sets the standard form wise and she very hard to knock.She's probably already run to level sufficient to win an average renewal of this race.3.50 is fair enough and I wouldn't put anyone off backing her.Joyeuse is a half sister to Frankel and did look very good winning on debut-she has to improve a bit to win this but whilst I can't back her at 5.0 I don't really want to oppose her either.There are another handful of potential improvers here too.Technically I ought to be with Sandiva but I'm not betting here.
King Edward VII Stakes
Battle Of Marengo's Derby fourth is clearly the best form on offer.He's on offer at around 1.85 and whilst I think that's too short I don't have a strong case to make for anything to beat him.He's tough to beat but I think he should be a shade into black figures here.
Coronation Stakes
This is run on the Old Mile round a bend. The Guineas winners Sky Lantern and Just the Judge both cop wide gates here and although they run straight for 5 furlongs until the home straight the are at a disadvantage beginning from out there.Undoubtedly they have the best form but with the awkward gates the race looks very open.I liked what I saw when Pavlosk won at York but more is needed here.
Big Break has very little to find to be a live chance but she is a big risk on fast ground.Viztoria is a chance if she can run out the mile.It's tricky and trappy and I won't be betting here.
Wolferton Handicap
Albasharah is an unbeaten improving 4-y-o filly and she heads the market here at 6.0.She ran away with a Doncaster handicap last time but has gone up a staggering 16lb's.This race has driven me nuts and now I wish I had canned it straight away.I've spent around 2 hours on it trying to find an angle and have absolutely no more idea than when I began.Pass.
Queen's Vase
Leading Light has the best form and is progressive.He does cop a 3lb penalty here though and I'm not entirely convinced that he will stay 2 miles.He's hard to beat and the 3.30 on offer on Betfair is tempting but the stamina doubt is strong enough to stop me betting.Disclaimer is improving and whilst his Dam was a winner over 14 furlongs the trip concerns me for him too.I can't make my mind up about Nichols Canyon he's either a good horse waiting to happen or an underachiever.Dashing star has a bit to find but does look a genuine stayer.No Bet
Buckingham Palace Stakes
Enrol is favourite at 7.0 and is a live hope but a tad short I think.I'm not sure a strong 7 furlongs is what she needs.Emilio Largo is lightly raced and his comeback run over 6 furlongs here was full of merit.The extra furlong is ideal.He's favourite on my figures at 8.0 just ahead of Dream Tune on 9.0 who ran a huge race over course and distance in the Victoria Cup last month when stuck out alone on the far side and tracked across late to be a live hope at the furlong marker.He has the stands rail draw in 30 today and will run a big race.Baccarat still has the potential to be a good horse-he's 24.0 on Betfair against my rating of 15.0.
Advised Bets: Emilio Largo 0.65 units at 9.0 or better- I've taken the 11.50 on offer
Dream Tune 0.55 units at 10.0 or better -I've taken the 15.0 on offer
Baccarat 0.33 units at 16.0 or better- I've taken 23.5 on Betfair but it's easy at the moment-so monitor-maybe a negative I'm unaware of.
There are a couple that I'm looking at up at Redcar this afternoon-anything on them later will go out via Twitter
Albany Stakes
Sandiva's Naas win in a Listed event sets the standard form wise and she very hard to knock.She's probably already run to level sufficient to win an average renewal of this race.3.50 is fair enough and I wouldn't put anyone off backing her.Joyeuse is a half sister to Frankel and did look very good winning on debut-she has to improve a bit to win this but whilst I can't back her at 5.0 I don't really want to oppose her either.There are another handful of potential improvers here too.Technically I ought to be with Sandiva but I'm not betting here.
King Edward VII Stakes
Battle Of Marengo's Derby fourth is clearly the best form on offer.He's on offer at around 1.85 and whilst I think that's too short I don't have a strong case to make for anything to beat him.He's tough to beat but I think he should be a shade into black figures here.
Coronation Stakes
This is run on the Old Mile round a bend. The Guineas winners Sky Lantern and Just the Judge both cop wide gates here and although they run straight for 5 furlongs until the home straight the are at a disadvantage beginning from out there.Undoubtedly they have the best form but with the awkward gates the race looks very open.I liked what I saw when Pavlosk won at York but more is needed here.
Big Break has very little to find to be a live chance but she is a big risk on fast ground.Viztoria is a chance if she can run out the mile.It's tricky and trappy and I won't be betting here.
Wolferton Handicap
Albasharah is an unbeaten improving 4-y-o filly and she heads the market here at 6.0.She ran away with a Doncaster handicap last time but has gone up a staggering 16lb's.This race has driven me nuts and now I wish I had canned it straight away.I've spent around 2 hours on it trying to find an angle and have absolutely no more idea than when I began.Pass.
Queen's Vase
Leading Light has the best form and is progressive.He does cop a 3lb penalty here though and I'm not entirely convinced that he will stay 2 miles.He's hard to beat and the 3.30 on offer on Betfair is tempting but the stamina doubt is strong enough to stop me betting.Disclaimer is improving and whilst his Dam was a winner over 14 furlongs the trip concerns me for him too.I can't make my mind up about Nichols Canyon he's either a good horse waiting to happen or an underachiever.Dashing star has a bit to find but does look a genuine stayer.No Bet
Buckingham Palace Stakes
Enrol is favourite at 7.0 and is a live hope but a tad short I think.I'm not sure a strong 7 furlongs is what she needs.Emilio Largo is lightly raced and his comeback run over 6 furlongs here was full of merit.The extra furlong is ideal.He's favourite on my figures at 8.0 just ahead of Dream Tune on 9.0 who ran a huge race over course and distance in the Victoria Cup last month when stuck out alone on the far side and tracked across late to be a live hope at the furlong marker.He has the stands rail draw in 30 today and will run a big race.Baccarat still has the potential to be a good horse-he's 24.0 on Betfair against my rating of 15.0.
Advised Bets: Emilio Largo 0.65 units at 9.0 or better- I've taken the 11.50 on offer
Dream Tune 0.55 units at 10.0 or better -I've taken the 15.0 on offer
Baccarat 0.33 units at 16.0 or better- I've taken 23.5 on Betfair but it's easy at the moment-so monitor-maybe a negative I'm unaware of.
There are a couple that I'm looking at up at Redcar this afternoon-anything on them later will go out via Twitter
Thursday 20 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day Three
Duntle and Al Kazeem obliged for the blog yesterday with Montiridge narrowly failing to make it three from three after trading as low as 1.20 on Betfair.
Good to Firm is the going reading this morning and although there are some forecast showers later I doubt should they eventuate we are going to racing on anything worse than good.
Norfolk Stakes
Coach House heads the market at 3.50.He's entitled to be favourite but I couldn't back him at that price.It's a hard race to get a handle on confidently with plenty open to improvement.Not betting here.
Ribblesdale Stakes
Irish filly Alive Alive Oh heads the market at 3.50.She was super impressive winning a Listed event at Navan last month.All her form is on wet ground and she makes no appeal at current odds.This is a most difficult race to assess and you can make a credible case for half a dozen runners with another couple likely to improve from good stables.Couldn't possible advise anything here.
Gold Cup
This isn't as strong a race as it used to be and the betting market is very open.Plenty of hopes with the bulk of the field fully exposed and unlikely to show much more than they already have.The exception is the Queens runner Estimate who is a lightly raced 4-y-o filly who was a decisive winner at this meeting last year taking out the Queens Prize.She is bred for the job.Her half brother Enzeli won this race in 1999.She's still improving and the extra trip is all in her favour and can see her improve again.Gate 5 is good and she can find a good trailing position.She is effective on dry and wet so no worries if the rain does come.I have her at 5.50 heading the market.She's touching 8.0 on Betfair and 7.0 with the bookies
Advised Bet: Estimate 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better.Take 50% of the 7.8 on Betfair and monitor with the rest.
Brittania Handicap
I like this race and it has been very kind to me financially over the years.
Three "Group" horses masquarading as handicappers here in Wentworth,Cape Peron and Maputo.Lower down the weights and still unexposed is Llaregyb who is the one I would back if approaching this race one out as 17.50 on Betfair is too big.13.0 is my rating.Wentworth is favourite and rightly so.His effort over 6 furlongs against older seasoned sprinters when reappearing was excellent-he was held up and certainly would have won with any luck.He'll be much fitter and the mile will suit.The 2-y-o race he won at Newbury has been won by any number of star performers in the past.He is a bit of a blot on the handicap here and should have a fair bit more weight .He is the most likely winner and I have him at 4.5.Cape Peron routed the opposition last time and he too has the potential to be very useful.He is 8.0 on my figures.Maputo drops back in trip but with a fierce pace likely here that may not be a negative.He draws the other side of the course to the other three I like and of the low drawn horses I have clearly ahead rated at 10.0
I shall "Dutch" this race and shop on Betfair to try to get around 2.50 my four against the field.I have my four making up 52.41% of the book which rates their price collectively at around 1.90 This may appear a bit mad but a similar approach in this race has worked well for me netting the winner around 50% of the time over the last few years.
Advised Bets : Wentworth 1.10 units at 4.6 or better
Cape Peron 0.62 units at 8.0 or better
Maputo 0.50 units at 10.50 or better
Llaregyb 0.39 units at 13.50 or better
Shop on Betfair and monitor closely
Tercentenary Stakes
This event is most complex and there isn't a runner here that would genuinely surprise me by winning.No betting interest at all
King George V Stakes
The recent race that Bold Sniper won at Leicester looked a very hot heat to me beforehand but he absolutely demolished his rivals.The second there went in at Kempton last night so the form is franked.He'll improve again over this extra 2 furlongs and is a worthy favourite here.The negative is the outside gate.Had he drawn well I 'd have him 4.0 here but with the awkward draw I've got him 5.50.He owned by The Queen so expect him to be well backed
Advised Bet : Bold Sniper 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better.6.50 on offer now and that may go-have 65% at the 6.50 and monitor the balance on Betfair
Good to Firm is the going reading this morning and although there are some forecast showers later I doubt should they eventuate we are going to racing on anything worse than good.
Norfolk Stakes
Coach House heads the market at 3.50.He's entitled to be favourite but I couldn't back him at that price.It's a hard race to get a handle on confidently with plenty open to improvement.Not betting here.
Ribblesdale Stakes
Irish filly Alive Alive Oh heads the market at 3.50.She was super impressive winning a Listed event at Navan last month.All her form is on wet ground and she makes no appeal at current odds.This is a most difficult race to assess and you can make a credible case for half a dozen runners with another couple likely to improve from good stables.Couldn't possible advise anything here.
Gold Cup
This isn't as strong a race as it used to be and the betting market is very open.Plenty of hopes with the bulk of the field fully exposed and unlikely to show much more than they already have.The exception is the Queens runner Estimate who is a lightly raced 4-y-o filly who was a decisive winner at this meeting last year taking out the Queens Prize.She is bred for the job.Her half brother Enzeli won this race in 1999.She's still improving and the extra trip is all in her favour and can see her improve again.Gate 5 is good and she can find a good trailing position.She is effective on dry and wet so no worries if the rain does come.I have her at 5.50 heading the market.She's touching 8.0 on Betfair and 7.0 with the bookies
Advised Bet: Estimate 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better.Take 50% of the 7.8 on Betfair and monitor with the rest.
Brittania Handicap
I like this race and it has been very kind to me financially over the years.
Three "Group" horses masquarading as handicappers here in Wentworth,Cape Peron and Maputo.Lower down the weights and still unexposed is Llaregyb who is the one I would back if approaching this race one out as 17.50 on Betfair is too big.13.0 is my rating.Wentworth is favourite and rightly so.His effort over 6 furlongs against older seasoned sprinters when reappearing was excellent-he was held up and certainly would have won with any luck.He'll be much fitter and the mile will suit.The 2-y-o race he won at Newbury has been won by any number of star performers in the past.He is a bit of a blot on the handicap here and should have a fair bit more weight .He is the most likely winner and I have him at 4.5.Cape Peron routed the opposition last time and he too has the potential to be very useful.He is 8.0 on my figures.Maputo drops back in trip but with a fierce pace likely here that may not be a negative.He draws the other side of the course to the other three I like and of the low drawn horses I have clearly ahead rated at 10.0
I shall "Dutch" this race and shop on Betfair to try to get around 2.50 my four against the field.I have my four making up 52.41% of the book which rates their price collectively at around 1.90 This may appear a bit mad but a similar approach in this race has worked well for me netting the winner around 50% of the time over the last few years.
Advised Bets : Wentworth 1.10 units at 4.6 or better
Cape Peron 0.62 units at 8.0 or better
Maputo 0.50 units at 10.50 or better
Llaregyb 0.39 units at 13.50 or better
Shop on Betfair and monitor closely
Tercentenary Stakes
This event is most complex and there isn't a runner here that would genuinely surprise me by winning.No betting interest at all
King George V Stakes
The recent race that Bold Sniper won at Leicester looked a very hot heat to me beforehand but he absolutely demolished his rivals.The second there went in at Kempton last night so the form is franked.He'll improve again over this extra 2 furlongs and is a worthy favourite here.The negative is the outside gate.Had he drawn well I 'd have him 4.0 here but with the awkward draw I've got him 5.50.He owned by The Queen so expect him to be well backed
Advised Bet : Bold Sniper 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better.6.50 on offer now and that may go-have 65% at the 6.50 and monitor the balance on Betfair
Wednesday 19 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day Two
A nice winner at decent overs in Sydney earlier today recouped some of yesterday's and Sunday's losses and ended a minor bout of seconditus.I felt a bit flat after yesterday's racing but a winner does pick you up doesn't it?
The ground at Ascot is Good but it's drying so decent fastish summer ground today at least until late afternoon when there is a chance of showers- maybe thundery.
The straight course seemed to favour the near side (High Draws) yesterday.It's not at all certain that that trend will be confirmed as the meeting progresses.
Jersey Stakes
The three with the best figures on the board to date are Montiridge,Garswood and Gale Force Ten.The French raiders are difficult to assess confidently and the two trained by Rouget,The Brothers War and Mutin are particularly respected.However,I'm confident that Montiridge is the one they all have to beat.He fits the profile of the type of horse I look for in this race.I'm sure he's up to winning a G2 and maybe placing at G1 so at this G3 level he's ideally placed.My figures have him at 4.50 and the 6.50 on offer makes plenty of appeal
Advised Bet: Montiridge 1.1 units at 5.0 or better.7.0 on offer on Betfair now is good enough for me
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes
Duntle has already finished first at G1 level only to lose the race in the stewards room.I think she will get a G1 at some stage this season and I'm confident she is the best animal here.Chigun and Dank are respected.Duntle 3.0 on my figures is best priced 3.75 with the bookies and 4.0 now on Betfair.
Advised Bet: Duntle 1.65 units at 3.20 or better. 4.0 on offer now on Betfair is good value and I'm on.
Prince Of Wales's Stakes
Al Kazeem beat Camelot fair and square last time "away' from home and I expect him to confirm his superiority again.Maxios is a nuisance but I doubt he can beat Al Kazeem who is 3.0 on my figures and available at 3.50 on Betfair
Advised Bet: Al Kazeem 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better.3.50 available on Betfair now -50% now monitor Betfair with the balance
Royal Hunt Cup
I'm not betting here -I have no strong opinions but did think David Livingstone an interesting runner
Queen Mary Stakes
Beldale Memory has the best form to date but both her wins are on wet ground.No bet advised here.
Sandringham Handicap
This looks very open and I couldn't possibly advise anything with confidence here
The ground at Ascot is Good but it's drying so decent fastish summer ground today at least until late afternoon when there is a chance of showers- maybe thundery.
The straight course seemed to favour the near side (High Draws) yesterday.It's not at all certain that that trend will be confirmed as the meeting progresses.
Jersey Stakes
The three with the best figures on the board to date are Montiridge,Garswood and Gale Force Ten.The French raiders are difficult to assess confidently and the two trained by Rouget,The Brothers War and Mutin are particularly respected.However,I'm confident that Montiridge is the one they all have to beat.He fits the profile of the type of horse I look for in this race.I'm sure he's up to winning a G2 and maybe placing at G1 so at this G3 level he's ideally placed.My figures have him at 4.50 and the 6.50 on offer makes plenty of appeal
Advised Bet: Montiridge 1.1 units at 5.0 or better.7.0 on offer on Betfair now is good enough for me
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes
Duntle has already finished first at G1 level only to lose the race in the stewards room.I think she will get a G1 at some stage this season and I'm confident she is the best animal here.Chigun and Dank are respected.Duntle 3.0 on my figures is best priced 3.75 with the bookies and 4.0 now on Betfair.
Advised Bet: Duntle 1.65 units at 3.20 or better. 4.0 on offer now on Betfair is good value and I'm on.
Prince Of Wales's Stakes
Al Kazeem beat Camelot fair and square last time "away' from home and I expect him to confirm his superiority again.Maxios is a nuisance but I doubt he can beat Al Kazeem who is 3.0 on my figures and available at 3.50 on Betfair
Advised Bet: Al Kazeem 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better.3.50 available on Betfair now -50% now monitor Betfair with the balance
Royal Hunt Cup
I'm not betting here -I have no strong opinions but did think David Livingstone an interesting runner
Queen Mary Stakes
Beldale Memory has the best form to date but both her wins are on wet ground.No bet advised here.
Sandringham Handicap
This looks very open and I couldn't possibly advise anything with confidence here
Tuesday 18 June 2013
Canterbury Wednesday
Wet ground at Canterbury and Sandown today.Generally in the winter I would pass in these condition but there is one I'm very keen on in Sydney.
Canterbury Race 6
Medvedev surely can beat this lot.He's got the weight but amazingly nothing claims in this race so the 59kg's is not as onerous as you'd normally expect in Winter.My figures are 2.25 and 2.80 is available.
Advised Bet: Medvedev 2.2 units at 2.40 or better.Have 33% at the 2.80 and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Canterbury Race 6
Medvedev surely can beat this lot.He's got the weight but amazingly nothing claims in this race so the 59kg's is not as onerous as you'd normally expect in Winter.My figures are 2.25 and 2.80 is available.
Advised Bet: Medvedev 2.2 units at 2.40 or better.Have 33% at the 2.80 and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Monday 17 June 2013
Royal Ascot Day One
Day one of the Royal meeting and as usual it begins with three G1's.
Good ground posted but with the possibility of some showers this afternoon.A dry morning should see the ground almost Good to Firm by the time racing begins
Queen Anne Stakes
This has a very one sided look to it this year.There seems no reason why Animal Kingdom shouldn't give his running up the straight Ascot mile and if he does then he wins here.He's the only runner who has so far achieved the level of performance generally required to take out this race and without him it looks like a G2 event.The team behind this horse are very smart and he'd be a no show if they had any doubts about his ability to handle Ascot.Evens is overs and my figures have him 1.65
Advised Bet : Animal Kingdom 3 units at 1.80 or better-take the 2.0 for 50% and monitor on Betfair with the other 50% but don't leave it too late.
King's Stand Stakes
This is a race that the home runners struggle to win nowadays.3-y-o Reckless Abandon won two G1's as a 2-y-o and his comeback third was sound-he's the best hope the locals have.Sole Power is a sold performer coming of a fast pace on fast ground and he is a hope.
Shamexpress is a good sprinter but not quite as good as the Australian horses that have won here in recent years and whilst I respect him I'll be a tad surprised if he's good enough to win.
Shea Shea is a lightly raced 6-y-o with clearly the best form and the promise of more to come.Trained by M. De Kock he could hardly be in better hands.My figures have him at 2.70 so at the 3.50 on offer with the bookies looks decent overs.Currently 3.75 on Betfair.
Advised Bet : Shea Shea 1.85 units at 2.90 or better.Monitor on Betfair
St James's Palace Stakes
Listening to Jim Bolger talking about Dawn Approach prior to his 2000 Guineas win he made the point about how much work he'd had to pour into the horse in order to have him fit.My initial impressions straight after his Derby debacle when he pulled throughout was that he was a horse in need of a break.His Guineas win was totally dominant and if he can run to that level here then surely he would be very hard to toss.Maybe Derby day got to him and he'll be fine today but there is no way I could be tempted at current odds.I'm not playing here.I have too much respect for Bolger as a trainer to oppose his horse if he's happy to run.It looks a very good renewal and happy to just be an onlooker here.
Coventry Stakes
Occasional years I'll have a bet in this race but this year will not be one of them.Far too hard and happy to watch and learn
Ascot Stakes
Justification started favourite in the Chester Cup and endured a torrid run so you have to forgive his effort there.He has to be respected here.Well Sharp stormed through the mud to rout the opposition at York last time.He has to race off 10lb higher here on dry ground but nevertheless is not easy to dismiss.The best formline for mine is this race at Newmarket won by Tiger Cliff with Mubaraza a close up third.There are winners already from that race franking what looked a strong form race at the time.Both Tiger Cliff and Mubaraza look suited out to further although there is no guarantee at this extreme distance that either will emphatically stay I think they are both more likely that not to do so.I have Tiger Cliff favourite at 6.0 on my figures with Mubaraza next best at 7.50 so current quotes of 7.0 and 10.0 respectively appeal.Early markets are 30% plus overound so Betfair looks easily the best option here.
Advised Bets : Tiger Cliff 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better-shop on Betfair
Mubaraza 0.65 units to win at 8.0 or better -shop on Betfair
Windsor Castle Stakes
This looks very,very difficult.Just watching here
Good ground posted but with the possibility of some showers this afternoon.A dry morning should see the ground almost Good to Firm by the time racing begins
Queen Anne Stakes
This has a very one sided look to it this year.There seems no reason why Animal Kingdom shouldn't give his running up the straight Ascot mile and if he does then he wins here.He's the only runner who has so far achieved the level of performance generally required to take out this race and without him it looks like a G2 event.The team behind this horse are very smart and he'd be a no show if they had any doubts about his ability to handle Ascot.Evens is overs and my figures have him 1.65
Advised Bet : Animal Kingdom 3 units at 1.80 or better-take the 2.0 for 50% and monitor on Betfair with the other 50% but don't leave it too late.
King's Stand Stakes
This is a race that the home runners struggle to win nowadays.3-y-o Reckless Abandon won two G1's as a 2-y-o and his comeback third was sound-he's the best hope the locals have.Sole Power is a sold performer coming of a fast pace on fast ground and he is a hope.
Shamexpress is a good sprinter but not quite as good as the Australian horses that have won here in recent years and whilst I respect him I'll be a tad surprised if he's good enough to win.
Shea Shea is a lightly raced 6-y-o with clearly the best form and the promise of more to come.Trained by M. De Kock he could hardly be in better hands.My figures have him at 2.70 so at the 3.50 on offer with the bookies looks decent overs.Currently 3.75 on Betfair.
Advised Bet : Shea Shea 1.85 units at 2.90 or better.Monitor on Betfair
St James's Palace Stakes
Listening to Jim Bolger talking about Dawn Approach prior to his 2000 Guineas win he made the point about how much work he'd had to pour into the horse in order to have him fit.My initial impressions straight after his Derby debacle when he pulled throughout was that he was a horse in need of a break.His Guineas win was totally dominant and if he can run to that level here then surely he would be very hard to toss.Maybe Derby day got to him and he'll be fine today but there is no way I could be tempted at current odds.I'm not playing here.I have too much respect for Bolger as a trainer to oppose his horse if he's happy to run.It looks a very good renewal and happy to just be an onlooker here.
Coventry Stakes
Occasional years I'll have a bet in this race but this year will not be one of them.Far too hard and happy to watch and learn
Ascot Stakes
Justification started favourite in the Chester Cup and endured a torrid run so you have to forgive his effort there.He has to be respected here.Well Sharp stormed through the mud to rout the opposition at York last time.He has to race off 10lb higher here on dry ground but nevertheless is not easy to dismiss.The best formline for mine is this race at Newmarket won by Tiger Cliff with Mubaraza a close up third.There are winners already from that race franking what looked a strong form race at the time.Both Tiger Cliff and Mubaraza look suited out to further although there is no guarantee at this extreme distance that either will emphatically stay I think they are both more likely that not to do so.I have Tiger Cliff favourite at 6.0 on my figures with Mubaraza next best at 7.50 so current quotes of 7.0 and 10.0 respectively appeal.Early markets are 30% plus overound so Betfair looks easily the best option here.
Advised Bets : Tiger Cliff 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better-shop on Betfair
Mubaraza 0.65 units to win at 8.0 or better -shop on Betfair
Windsor Castle Stakes
This looks very,very difficult.Just watching here
Sunday 16 June 2013
Monday's UK Racing
No advised bets today.I have looked at a few but not committing to anything at this stage.I'll be covering the evening fixtures at Warwick and Windsor and if I do get involved in anything I'll "tweet" it through.
Weekend Update
What a mixed bag that last week was!Very disappointing to finish slightly down on the week after a couple of juicily priced winners on Friday and Saturday.Yesterday was "one of those days"that come along from time to time. Four bets for three seconds and a third.All were smashed in the betting ring and all three seconds traded sub 1.50 on Betfair in the run.I pondered long and hard over Bassara before "tweeting" that I was passing her over because of the fast ground and of course she got up to win in the last stride.
The blog finished roughly even on the UK bets and one losing bet in Australia made it a loss of 1.73 units on the week.Figures for June to date are UK 18.685 units profit Australia 3.65 units loss.
Obviously a big week coming up and I'm praying for a dry week.If the rain stays away this should be very decent week judging by past performance.
It's been a bit more difficult adjusting my schedule to concentrate on the UK racing as the time differential is a real nightmare and I've had a few health issues this year so I simply cannot go as hard as before. I've got a routine happening now though and it seems to working well enough.I've had to slow down on the Australian racing a bit though otherwise the workload becomes simply too much.The Aussie stuff is very moderate until September so until then I'm just concentrating on around 30 Australian races a week and it's nearly all lay bets.
The blog finished roughly even on the UK bets and one losing bet in Australia made it a loss of 1.73 units on the week.Figures for June to date are UK 18.685 units profit Australia 3.65 units loss.
Obviously a big week coming up and I'm praying for a dry week.If the rain stays away this should be very decent week judging by past performance.
It's been a bit more difficult adjusting my schedule to concentrate on the UK racing as the time differential is a real nightmare and I've had a few health issues this year so I simply cannot go as hard as before. I've got a routine happening now though and it seems to working well enough.I've had to slow down on the Australian racing a bit though otherwise the workload becomes simply too much.The Aussie stuff is very moderate until September so until then I'm just concentrating on around 30 Australian races a week and it's nearly all lay bets.
Sunday's Uk Racing Update
Advised Bets
Salisbury
Race 1 Villoresi 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better
Race 2 Asian Trader 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better
Doncaster
Race 2 Schwainman 2.5 units to win at 2.20 or better
Race 5 Missisipi 1.45 units at 3.60 or better
More via twitter during the day
Salisbury
Race 1 Villoresi 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better
Race 2 Asian Trader 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better
Doncaster
Race 2 Schwainman 2.5 units to win at 2.20 or better
Race 5 Missisipi 1.45 units at 3.60 or better
More via twitter during the day
Sunday's UK Racing
Two meetings today at Salisbury and Doncaster.Not at all bad for a Sunday with a few races that I like the "shape" of.
Salisbury is Good with patches of Good to Firm and the possibility of showers and Doncaster is Good to Firm and more likely than not to stay dry.Weather conditions are pretty crucial to the ones I like today and the forecasts have been a bit flaky this week.
Early markets are a bit thin and patchy so at this stage I am not committing to anything at the current quotes.
I'll update the blog about a half hour before racing begins and see how things look then
Salisbury is Good with patches of Good to Firm and the possibility of showers and Doncaster is Good to Firm and more likely than not to stay dry.Weather conditions are pretty crucial to the ones I like today and the forecasts have been a bit flaky this week.
Early markets are a bit thin and patchy so at this stage I am not committing to anything at the current quotes.
I'll update the blog about a half hour before racing begins and see how things look then
Saturday 15 June 2013
Saturday's UK Racing
I'm a bit lacking in confidence with this mornings going reports.The radar seems to show a fair bit of overnight rain but early reports are all in the Good/Good to Firm range.Showers around this afternoon but they look patchy so hard to predict accurately.
Over the years I have found this to be a particularly trappy day best approached with a high degree of caution.
Had some rain hit Musselburgh I would have been interested in a couple there but with Good to Firm posted I am passing.Just the three today and all at York.
York
Race 1
Crackentorp won this this last year and the year before.He's handicapped to go very close again.He races prominently in a race where the majority are hold up types.I have him rated a 6.0 chance and 7.0 plus is available.Not a lot of fat in the price but I'm still having a play here.
Advised Bet : Crackentorp 1 unit at 6.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 4
There has been some aggressive laying on Betfair for Body And Soul this morning so maybe there is a negative that I'm unaware of.I don't like the weight of money waiting to lay this one but I was confident about here chances of being involved here.I've taken the 11.5 on Betfair-I have her a rock solid 7.0 chance.
Advised Bet 0.75 units Body and Soul at 7.50 or better-take some of the 11.50 now and monitor the rest
Race 7
Most of these are infrequent winners and fully exposed.Not so Polar Venture who was totally luckless last time and is far better than that run suggests.The booking of R.Hughes is a real positive and he can bring this one late and hard.I have him at 4.40 here so again not massive fat at around 5.0 but at that price I'm playing and shopping on Betfair may get a bit better
Advised Bet: Polar Venture 1.15 units at 4.50 or better.5.0 on offer now monitor on Betfair but don't leave it late as I think this one will be popular
Over the years I have found this to be a particularly trappy day best approached with a high degree of caution.
Had some rain hit Musselburgh I would have been interested in a couple there but with Good to Firm posted I am passing.Just the three today and all at York.
York
Race 1
Crackentorp won this this last year and the year before.He's handicapped to go very close again.He races prominently in a race where the majority are hold up types.I have him rated a 6.0 chance and 7.0 plus is available.Not a lot of fat in the price but I'm still having a play here.
Advised Bet : Crackentorp 1 unit at 6.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 4
There has been some aggressive laying on Betfair for Body And Soul this morning so maybe there is a negative that I'm unaware of.I don't like the weight of money waiting to lay this one but I was confident about here chances of being involved here.I've taken the 11.5 on Betfair-I have her a rock solid 7.0 chance.
Advised Bet 0.75 units Body and Soul at 7.50 or better-take some of the 11.50 now and monitor the rest
Race 7
Most of these are infrequent winners and fully exposed.Not so Polar Venture who was totally luckless last time and is far better than that run suggests.The booking of R.Hughes is a real positive and he can bring this one late and hard.I have him at 4.40 here so again not massive fat at around 5.0 but at that price I'm playing and shopping on Betfair may get a bit better
Advised Bet: Polar Venture 1.15 units at 4.50 or better.5.0 on offer now monitor on Betfair but don't leave it late as I think this one will be popular
Friday 14 June 2013
Moonee Valley Today
Slow 6 posted at the Valley and I expect that to hold throughout the day.
Typical Winter Saturday racing ok but nothing to get too excited about.Just the one bet this afternoon.
Moonee Valley
Race 5
Batman was a clear second best when chasing home Ossenhagen last time.That winner looks very smart.Gate 1 here gives him a nice trail behind the speed.Hunger ran well last time but he did have a cosy lead then and with Quick Snitzel pushing forward won't have things as easy today.Ava's Delight is the other realistic hope.I'm keen on Batman here and my figures have him at 3.40 and 4.0 is on offer.
Advised Bet: Batman 1.50 units at 3.50 or better-take the 4.0 for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the rest
Typical Winter Saturday racing ok but nothing to get too excited about.Just the one bet this afternoon.
Moonee Valley
Race 5
Batman was a clear second best when chasing home Ossenhagen last time.That winner looks very smart.Gate 1 here gives him a nice trail behind the speed.Hunger ran well last time but he did have a cosy lead then and with Quick Snitzel pushing forward won't have things as easy today.Ava's Delight is the other realistic hope.I'm keen on Batman here and my figures have him at 3.40 and 4.0 is on offer.
Advised Bet: Batman 1.50 units at 3.50 or better-take the 4.0 for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the rest
Friday's UK Racing
Five flat meetings and only modest quality wise.Chepstow's evening fixture is very unappealing but I've found one at each of the other four venues.There is a bit of rain around but apart from Chepstow this evening I don't think it's going to amount to much.
Goodwood
Race 4
Majeed was very unlucky at Chester last time.There are a few hopes here but he's clearly on top on my figures at 3.50 so offers around 4.50 looks worth an interest.
Advised bet: Majeed 1.4 units at 3.70 or better-monitor on Betfair but 4.50 looks ok to me
Musselburgh
Race 5
Street Entertainer is a decent hurdler and he smashed the opposition when reverting to the flat last time at Nottingham.He's got to back up under a penalty but he's streets ahead of the handicapper off this mark.My figures are 1.80 allowing for quick back up and the prospect of a muddling pace.
Advised Bet: Street Entertainer 2.75 units to win at 1.9 or better.Currently evens but monitor on Betfair
Sandown
Race 6
Presburg was hopelessly held up here last time and he would have given the winner plenty to think about if he'd have had a clear run.This is a bit trappy with a few if's and but's but my figures have him favourite here at 5.0 and there is 6.50 on offer- bigger on Betfair.
Advised Bet: Presburg 1 unit at 5.50 or better -monitor on Betfair
York
Race 5
Above Standard looks a real sprinter and I suspect the drop back to 5 furlongs will be not inconvenience him at all.Likely a positive.Tough race but I've got him 6.0 and he's available at 8.50 at the moment.I think he'll be shorter than that so anything available over 8.0 is likely to be snapped up.
Advised Bet: Above Standard 0.85 units at 6.50 or better
Goodwood
Race 4
Majeed was very unlucky at Chester last time.There are a few hopes here but he's clearly on top on my figures at 3.50 so offers around 4.50 looks worth an interest.
Advised bet: Majeed 1.4 units at 3.70 or better-monitor on Betfair but 4.50 looks ok to me
Musselburgh
Race 5
Street Entertainer is a decent hurdler and he smashed the opposition when reverting to the flat last time at Nottingham.He's got to back up under a penalty but he's streets ahead of the handicapper off this mark.My figures are 1.80 allowing for quick back up and the prospect of a muddling pace.
Advised Bet: Street Entertainer 2.75 units to win at 1.9 or better.Currently evens but monitor on Betfair
Sandown
Race 6
Presburg was hopelessly held up here last time and he would have given the winner plenty to think about if he'd have had a clear run.This is a bit trappy with a few if's and but's but my figures have him favourite here at 5.0 and there is 6.50 on offer- bigger on Betfair.
Advised Bet: Presburg 1 unit at 5.50 or better -monitor on Betfair
York
Race 5
Above Standard looks a real sprinter and I suspect the drop back to 5 furlongs will be not inconvenience him at all.Likely a positive.Tough race but I've got him 6.0 and he's available at 8.50 at the moment.I think he'll be shorter than that so anything available over 8.0 is likely to be snapped up.
Advised Bet: Above Standard 0.85 units at 6.50 or better
Thursday 13 June 2013
Thursday's UK Racing
Today looks very tough..The main meeting at Newbury is decent enough but I cannot find anything to be interested in there.The three afternoon meetings should be racing on Good/Good to Firm but Haydock this evening could get more rain and the current Good ground may deteriorate.
Just one bet at this stage but there may be "tweets" for Haydock's card depending on the weather.
Nottingham
Race 2
This is a very low quality event and it won't take much winning.The prospect of a strong pace has me keen on Errigal Lad who ran second in this race last year off a higher mark in a race that wasn't run to suit him.His reappearance run here over 5 furlongs was most eyecatching and providing they do run along here he has good prospects of rounding them up late on.I think he's very well in here and this race looks like it's been on his radar.The bookies haven't missed him and odds of 7.0 on Betfair may look a bit thin but I have him at 5.50 so there is some value in the 7.0.In a race such as this I want a decent mark up on my figures before I want to play so 7.0 is the lowest price I'm prepared to take on Betfair and I'm hoping that a bit better is available.Those of you who play in running on Betfair may want to wait as this horse gets back and sometimes starts slowly so the in running price may be significantly higher than the pre race prices.
Advised Bet: Errigal Lad 0.90 units at 7.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Just one bet at this stage but there may be "tweets" for Haydock's card depending on the weather.
Nottingham
Race 2
This is a very low quality event and it won't take much winning.The prospect of a strong pace has me keen on Errigal Lad who ran second in this race last year off a higher mark in a race that wasn't run to suit him.His reappearance run here over 5 furlongs was most eyecatching and providing they do run along here he has good prospects of rounding them up late on.I think he's very well in here and this race looks like it's been on his radar.The bookies haven't missed him and odds of 7.0 on Betfair may look a bit thin but I have him at 5.50 so there is some value in the 7.0.In a race such as this I want a decent mark up on my figures before I want to play so 7.0 is the lowest price I'm prepared to take on Betfair and I'm hoping that a bit better is available.Those of you who play in running on Betfair may want to wait as this horse gets back and sometimes starts slowly so the in running price may be significantly higher than the pre race prices.
Advised Bet: Errigal Lad 0.90 units at 7.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Wednesday 12 June 2013
Wednesday's UK Racing Update
Two races at this stage with advised bets.There may be tweets later.
Haydock
Race 1
Grand Maestro was very dominant winning here at the weekend.Admittedly he did get the run of the race there but he was well on top at the finish and seems sure to go very close today.
Advised Bet: Grand Maestro 1.8 units to win at 2.85 or better -shop on Betfair and look for 3.40 plus.
Yarmouth
Race 7
I wish I had committed earlier here but was worried rain may get to Yarmouth late in the day which now seems unlikely.Dancheur was 4.50 but that has gone and she's a general 3.50.She can lead all the way here and 6 furlongs on a fast straight surface seems to be her optimum conditions.I have her at 3.10 so there is still some value at 3.50 and we should get a bit better on Betfair at some stage
Advised Bet: Dancheur 1.6 units to win at 3.25 or better-shop on Betfair and look for 3.80 plus
Haydock
Race 1
Grand Maestro was very dominant winning here at the weekend.Admittedly he did get the run of the race there but he was well on top at the finish and seems sure to go very close today.
Advised Bet: Grand Maestro 1.8 units to win at 2.85 or better -shop on Betfair and look for 3.40 plus.
Yarmouth
Race 7
I wish I had committed earlier here but was worried rain may get to Yarmouth late in the day which now seems unlikely.Dancheur was 4.50 but that has gone and she's a general 3.50.She can lead all the way here and 6 furlongs on a fast straight surface seems to be her optimum conditions.I have her at 3.10 so there is still some value at 3.50 and we should get a bit better on Betfair at some stage
Advised Bet: Dancheur 1.6 units to win at 3.25 or better-shop on Betfair and look for 3.80 plus
Wednesday's UK Racing
Lot's of action today with three afternoon and two evening meetings.Plenty of interest too even though it's only typical midweek stuff.A few races that I'm looking at but there is a band of rain that has already changed the ground at Haydock and another that may impact on ground conditions later at Yarmouth.I'll have another look at the weather radar around 1.30pm UK time and update the blog then when hopefully, the weather conditions are more settled.
Tuesday 11 June 2013
Tuesday's UK Racing
Salisbury is the sole afternoon flat meeting which is a bit bewildering in the middle of Summer.It's not a bad card but there is nothing I'm confident about committing to at this stage.
Evening fixture at Lingfield on the all weather is pretty dire stuff until the last race.Big Thunder ran away with a Brighton C6 h'cap last time and under a 6lb penalty you'd think would be very short odds to follow up.He'll be mighty hard to beat but Press Club is Godolphin's only runner here and De Sousa comes for one ride.The vibes from early markets suggest that this one may be no pushover.
There is plenty coming up over the next couple of weeks so I'll take another quiet one today
Evening fixture at Lingfield on the all weather is pretty dire stuff until the last race.Big Thunder ran away with a Brighton C6 h'cap last time and under a 6lb penalty you'd think would be very short odds to follow up.He'll be mighty hard to beat but Press Club is Godolphin's only runner here and De Sousa comes for one ride.The vibes from early markets suggest that this one may be no pushover.
There is plenty coming up over the next couple of weeks so I'll take another quiet one today
Sunday 9 June 2013
Monday Update
The Australian meetings at Mornington and Randwick both look tricky and I'll be playing the "lay" side of the exchange only today.Likewise the UK meetings at Brighton and Windsor are uninspiring so no bets today
Weekend Round Up
Stradbroke day yesterday and Academus' win stopped the blog taking a drubbing there but it was a bit ordinary punting wise overall.There will be nothing flash happening "Down Under"for the next 3 months but the Winter months here do provide opportunities even if the racing isn't anything to get excited about.
The blog's firing on all cylinders now with the British racing after a very quiet start with very few bets early on in the traditional flat season.Some very busy months coming up now and after a pretty shabby start to 2013 I'm looking to put some tough months behind me and charge ahead.
I'll be using twitter more as the UK season progresses as it does help to clarify my position close to off time if I've held back putting one up on the blog for whatever reason.I only tweeted a couple through this week a winner and a close second but there will be a lot more from now on I expect.
Of the blog's advised bets in the UK this week there were 4 winners and a close third from 5 selections (if you include the tweets it's 5 winners, a second and a third from 7 selections).Things are rolling again!
Only one flat meeting at Nottingham today and it's pretty unappealing so I'll be resting up.
Public holiday in Australia tomorrow and metro racing so there may be a blog around late morning.
The blog's firing on all cylinders now with the British racing after a very quiet start with very few bets early on in the traditional flat season.Some very busy months coming up now and after a pretty shabby start to 2013 I'm looking to put some tough months behind me and charge ahead.
I'll be using twitter more as the UK season progresses as it does help to clarify my position close to off time if I've held back putting one up on the blog for whatever reason.I only tweeted a couple through this week a winner and a close second but there will be a lot more from now on I expect.
Of the blog's advised bets in the UK this week there were 4 winners and a close third from 5 selections (if you include the tweets it's 5 winners, a second and a third from 7 selections).Things are rolling again!
Only one flat meeting at Nottingham today and it's pretty unappealing so I'll be resting up.
Public holiday in Australia tomorrow and metro racing so there may be a blog around late morning.
Saturday 8 June 2013
Saturday's UK racing
Six flat meetings today and the Summer Saturday's create a massive workload.I've looked at 16 races in great depth where I saw potential bets but after weighing up all the pro's and cons I have only three advised bets.
Good fast racing ground everywhere today so it's a shame I can only find three I want to back at this stage.
Newmarket
Race 4
No Heretic looked like he'd have more to offer when winning over the Rowley Mile course here last time.This is a good race and there are some decent sorts here but with the expectation that No Heretic can improve again and him likely to be better positioned in the run than his main rivals I'm on at 5.50.
I have him at 3.80 here.
Advised Bet: No Heretic 1.3 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.0 on offer now
Chester
Race 5
Plenty of hopes here but with pace on upfront it should favour the closers andAl Muheer get a chance to make up for being unlucky last time in a tougher race.He'll need the breaks but is drawn well and the price is big enough to tempt me.I rate him 6.0 here so the 9.0 on offer looks good.
Advised Bet: Al Muheer 0.85 units at 6.60 or better-9.0 available in a place-8.0 plus on Betfair
Newbury
Race 1
Amateurs race but have to be with the improving Balmoral Castle who is going forward whilst most of these are in reverse.Wide throughout last time but still got home.Draws for a nice run here and is a 3.0 max chance on my figures but is on offer at 4.50/5.0
Advised Bet: Balmoral Castle 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-5.0/4.50 on offer now is overs so take it
Good fast racing ground everywhere today so it's a shame I can only find three I want to back at this stage.
Newmarket
Race 4
No Heretic looked like he'd have more to offer when winning over the Rowley Mile course here last time.This is a good race and there are some decent sorts here but with the expectation that No Heretic can improve again and him likely to be better positioned in the run than his main rivals I'm on at 5.50.
I have him at 3.80 here.
Advised Bet: No Heretic 1.3 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.0 on offer now
Chester
Race 5
Plenty of hopes here but with pace on upfront it should favour the closers andAl Muheer get a chance to make up for being unlucky last time in a tougher race.He'll need the breaks but is drawn well and the price is big enough to tempt me.I rate him 6.0 here so the 9.0 on offer looks good.
Advised Bet: Al Muheer 0.85 units at 6.60 or better-9.0 available in a place-8.0 plus on Betfair
Newbury
Race 1
Amateurs race but have to be with the improving Balmoral Castle who is going forward whilst most of these are in reverse.Wide throughout last time but still got home.Draws for a nice run here and is a 3.0 max chance on my figures but is on offer at 4.50/5.0
Advised Bet: Balmoral Castle 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-5.0/4.50 on offer now is overs so take it
Friday 7 June 2013
Stradbroke ,Queensland Derby,Brisbane Cup and J.J Atkins at Eagle Farm
Queensland racing has it's showcase day today at Eagle Farm.Posted a Dead 4.Some showers are possible so it's fair to work on a Good to Dead track.
Early markets with bookies are all at 20/30% overounds ( Brisbane bookies get away with betting massive overounds) so my strong advice to anyone betting there today is to constantly monitor Betfair and don't be in too much of a hurry to get on unless one is proving very strong.
Race 2
Transporter has the form and the gate to be hard to beat here.He was very gallant against Solzehnitsyn last time and is solid consistent racehorse in career best form.Current quotes around 3.50 against my rating of 2.90.Someday has a big reputation but he does have a fair bit to find to win this.
Race 3
Academus draws gate 1 and his main rival Platinum Kingdom gets gate18 after scratchings.He's no world beater Academus but he's useful and with the plum draw and a bludge run he is clearly the one to beat.Lillburlero would have rated higher were in not for for her awkward draw.Academus is a best priced 2.85 this morning and anything over 2.80 looks attractive to me.Expect 3.30/3.50 on Betfair at some stage.
Race 4
Pentasia has never raced at 1000m but doubt thats a negative in such a hot speed race.Gets a nice run behind the pace here and can pounce on them in the last 150 metres.She's still improving and very genuine.4.40 best this morning with the books and over 5.0 on Betfair. 4.0 is my assessment so I'm happy to play here.
Race 5
Red Tracer and steps In Time are the highest rated mares here but both havebad gates and have to concede 4kg's to the solid Brisbane performer Fire Up Fifi who draws for a good run in gate 8. 5.50 is the best this morning for Fifi and I don't think we'll beat that somehow.I've got her at 4.0 maximum.
I've taken the 5.50
Race 7 Queensland Derby
Gondokoro's Oaks win last week is the best form on offer here and no worries about the trip with her.Gate is awkward and a good ride needed but Rhys McLeod produced one last week so let's hope he can repeat it here.She's a solid improver and a Cup's horse for next season for sure.Lot's of hopes here to be fair but early quotes of 6.50 underate her chances.Anything 5.0 or over makes her a bet on my figures.
Race 9 Brisbane Cup
I hope were on a good track by this time to improve Verdant chances.2400m is his optimum trip in my opinion and down the limit of 53kg's with the excellent M.Walker aboard he looks serious overs at 17.0.Tough race,lots of hopes but happy to be with Verdant who I rate a 11.0 chance
The evening blog covering UK racing is starting to get some traction now with 3 winners and a second from 4 selections this week (including tweets- one winner ,one second).Good fast racing ground in the UK now which will produce plenty of winners if the weather stays kind
Advised Bets
Eagle Farm
Race 2 Transporter 1.70 units to win at 3.0 or better.-shop on Betfair but expect strong late
Race 3 Academus 1.75 units to win at 2.80 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 4 Pentasia 1.25 units to win at 4.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 5 Fire Up Fifi 1.25 units to win at 4.0 or better-take the 5.50 now
Race 7 Gondokoro 1 unit to win at 5.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 9 Verdant 0.45 units to win at 11.0 or better-take the 17.0 on offer now
Early markets with bookies are all at 20/30% overounds ( Brisbane bookies get away with betting massive overounds) so my strong advice to anyone betting there today is to constantly monitor Betfair and don't be in too much of a hurry to get on unless one is proving very strong.
Race 2
Transporter has the form and the gate to be hard to beat here.He was very gallant against Solzehnitsyn last time and is solid consistent racehorse in career best form.Current quotes around 3.50 against my rating of 2.90.Someday has a big reputation but he does have a fair bit to find to win this.
Race 3
Academus draws gate 1 and his main rival Platinum Kingdom gets gate18 after scratchings.He's no world beater Academus but he's useful and with the plum draw and a bludge run he is clearly the one to beat.Lillburlero would have rated higher were in not for for her awkward draw.Academus is a best priced 2.85 this morning and anything over 2.80 looks attractive to me.Expect 3.30/3.50 on Betfair at some stage.
Race 4
Pentasia has never raced at 1000m but doubt thats a negative in such a hot speed race.Gets a nice run behind the pace here and can pounce on them in the last 150 metres.She's still improving and very genuine.4.40 best this morning with the books and over 5.0 on Betfair. 4.0 is my assessment so I'm happy to play here.
Race 5
Red Tracer and steps In Time are the highest rated mares here but both havebad gates and have to concede 4kg's to the solid Brisbane performer Fire Up Fifi who draws for a good run in gate 8. 5.50 is the best this morning for Fifi and I don't think we'll beat that somehow.I've got her at 4.0 maximum.
I've taken the 5.50
Race 7 Queensland Derby
Gondokoro's Oaks win last week is the best form on offer here and no worries about the trip with her.Gate is awkward and a good ride needed but Rhys McLeod produced one last week so let's hope he can repeat it here.She's a solid improver and a Cup's horse for next season for sure.Lot's of hopes here to be fair but early quotes of 6.50 underate her chances.Anything 5.0 or over makes her a bet on my figures.
Race 9 Brisbane Cup
I hope were on a good track by this time to improve Verdant chances.2400m is his optimum trip in my opinion and down the limit of 53kg's with the excellent M.Walker aboard he looks serious overs at 17.0.Tough race,lots of hopes but happy to be with Verdant who I rate a 11.0 chance
The evening blog covering UK racing is starting to get some traction now with 3 winners and a second from 4 selections this week (including tweets- one winner ,one second).Good fast racing ground in the UK now which will produce plenty of winners if the weather stays kind
Advised Bets
Eagle Farm
Race 2 Transporter 1.70 units to win at 3.0 or better.-shop on Betfair but expect strong late
Race 3 Academus 1.75 units to win at 2.80 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 4 Pentasia 1.25 units to win at 4.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 5 Fire Up Fifi 1.25 units to win at 4.0 or better-take the 5.50 now
Race 7 Gondokoro 1 unit to win at 5.0 or better-shop on Betfair
Race 9 Verdant 0.45 units to win at 11.0 or better-take the 17.0 on offer now
Friday's UK Racing
Decent cards today with plenty of interesting runners.
Asian Trader made heavy weather of getting the money yesterday but a winner is very welcome.
I don't often advise horses at short quotes but have to go full bore this afternoon.
Newmarket
Race 5
Maputo has been demolishing the opposition"Up North"and takes on some decent sorts at Headquarters.He's rated 88 but my figures have him just shy of 100 with more to come.He's evens and should be 1.60.Leads,kicks on and very,very hard to pass
Advised bet Newmarket Race 5 Maputo 3 units to win at 1.75 or better.Take the 2.00
Maybe more later via twitter particularly covering the evening fixtures at Haydock and Pontefract
Asian Trader made heavy weather of getting the money yesterday but a winner is very welcome.
I don't often advise horses at short quotes but have to go full bore this afternoon.
Newmarket
Race 5
Maputo has been demolishing the opposition"Up North"and takes on some decent sorts at Headquarters.He's rated 88 but my figures have him just shy of 100 with more to come.He's evens and should be 1.60.Leads,kicks on and very,very hard to pass
Advised bet Newmarket Race 5 Maputo 3 units to win at 1.75 or better.Take the 2.00
Maybe more later via twitter particularly covering the evening fixtures at Haydock and Pontefract
Thursday 6 June 2013
Thurday's UK Racing
I don't know what's happened to the replays on the Racing Post site.None are available for either Tuesday's or yesterday's racing which is a real pain.I set aside a couple of hours every day to review the previous day's racing and I hate to get behind as 2/3 hours a day of analysing replays is about as much as I can stand before my brain starts going into neutral.
It's piss poor racing this week so far which I suppose after Epsom and two weeks out from Ascot is predictable.
Only one bet I can suggest
Sandown
Race 2
I'm not that keen on Bath winners stepping up to premier courses but I'll make an exception for Asian Trader here.He looked an out and out sprinter winning his maiden last time and from a good draw and slightly down in trip he'll be hard to beat.Rebecca Romero was unlucky last time and if the breaks fall her way she is a live threat but she will need luck and plenty of it the way she races.
Advised Bet
Asian Trader 1.55 units to win at 3.50 or better (some 4.0 on offer but generally 3.75 early)
It's piss poor racing this week so far which I suppose after Epsom and two weeks out from Ascot is predictable.
Only one bet I can suggest
Sandown
Race 2
I'm not that keen on Bath winners stepping up to premier courses but I'll make an exception for Asian Trader here.He looked an out and out sprinter winning his maiden last time and from a good draw and slightly down in trip he'll be hard to beat.Rebecca Romero was unlucky last time and if the breaks fall her way she is a live threat but she will need luck and plenty of it the way she races.
Advised Bet
Asian Trader 1.55 units to win at 3.50 or better (some 4.0 on offer but generally 3.75 early)
Wednesday 5 June 2013
Wednesday's Uk Racing
Very uninspiring stuff on offer today.I can't find anything to enthuse about so I've decided to give it a miss.Back tomorrow.
Tuesday 4 June 2013
Moonee Valley Today
Racing returns to the Valley after a two month absence.It's posted a Slow 6 but with a dry 16 degree day forecast it could end up Dead.The races that I managed to get a reasonable handle on are very ground dependent so making an early call is pointless.As always at this venue whatever the track conditions the possibility of bias is very real.Many of the races have no early prices and it's 10.15am as I type this so the bookies are not keen to show their hand early either.
The earlier races are devilishly tricky and it's races 7 onwards (10 races here today) that hold most interest for me.
All I can tell you with any confidence at this stage is that Lake Sentensia is too short at 2.50 in race 8.
Sorry there's nothing to put up at this stage but I will tweet through later
The earlier races are devilishly tricky and it's races 7 onwards (10 races here today) that hold most interest for me.
All I can tell you with any confidence at this stage is that Lake Sentensia is too short at 2.50 in race 8.
Sorry there's nothing to put up at this stage but I will tweet through later
Weekend Round Up
The first four classics are over now but it seems that the UK season has only just started to get into full swing.
The introduction of all year round flat racing with the all weather now a constant has disrupted the pattern and I think it makes the early part of the traditional (turf) season much more erratic.
My memory may be playing tricks on me but 20 years ago at this point in the season I'd generally have pretty clearly defined opinions about the classic crop of 3-y-olds and their relative pecking order.Now it takes longer into the season for a clearer picture to emerge.
Nothing stays the same I know and I'm not saying things are better or worse but I don't think the Pattern race schedule is working quite as well as it used to.
That said I couldn't knock Ruler Of The World and doubt any that finished behind him are likely to end up being rated superior with exception of Dawn Approach.What an anti climax his effort was with his chances almost zero after the first furlong.Maybe he needs a break.
This blog and it's author is due a change of luck.Had Smoothtalkinrascal not received a side on swipe leaving the stalls he surely would have landed the money on Saturday.I couldn't believe that he was 20.0 plus on Betfair early on and he joins a long list this year of juicily priced horses who have gone down narrowly or unluckily when I've been on.
I was very confident about Renew so it was total frustration when he played up in the stalls and was scratched at the start.
Last night I tweeted through Tropics who got out to 4.7 on Betfair before being backed into 3.6.Traded very short on Betfair after looking home but run down in the shadow of the post-arghhh!
Nothing appeals today so I'll be resting up.
Back tomorrow fighting fit.
The introduction of all year round flat racing with the all weather now a constant has disrupted the pattern and I think it makes the early part of the traditional (turf) season much more erratic.
My memory may be playing tricks on me but 20 years ago at this point in the season I'd generally have pretty clearly defined opinions about the classic crop of 3-y-olds and their relative pecking order.Now it takes longer into the season for a clearer picture to emerge.
Nothing stays the same I know and I'm not saying things are better or worse but I don't think the Pattern race schedule is working quite as well as it used to.
That said I couldn't knock Ruler Of The World and doubt any that finished behind him are likely to end up being rated superior with exception of Dawn Approach.What an anti climax his effort was with his chances almost zero after the first furlong.Maybe he needs a break.
This blog and it's author is due a change of luck.Had Smoothtalkinrascal not received a side on swipe leaving the stalls he surely would have landed the money on Saturday.I couldn't believe that he was 20.0 plus on Betfair early on and he joins a long list this year of juicily priced horses who have gone down narrowly or unluckily when I've been on.
I was very confident about Renew so it was total frustration when he played up in the stalls and was scratched at the start.
Last night I tweeted through Tropics who got out to 4.7 on Betfair before being backed into 3.6.Traded very short on Betfair after looking home but run down in the shadow of the post-arghhh!
Nothing appeals today so I'll be resting up.
Back tomorrow fighting fit.
Monday 3 June 2013
Monday's UK Racing
I'll do a weekend roundup tomorrow.
A few of interest today but nothing I'm committed to at this stage so no advised bets.
I'll be concentrating on the evening fixtures at Carlisle and Windsor and if anything is worth noting I'll tweet it through.
A few of interest today but nothing I'm committed to at this stage so no advised bets.
I'll be concentrating on the evening fixtures at Carlisle and Windsor and if anything is worth noting I'll tweet it through.
Saturday 1 June 2013
Derby Day
A drying day at Epsom and it should be Good ground by the time racing gets under way.
The Derby
Dawn Approach surely wins if he gets the trip.It's a big if though and the earlier ante post red quotes are now extending out to a reasonable 2.75 and he may touch 3.0.I was very strong on stamina credentials for this race until a few years ago and it used to be the first thing I wanted to be sure of when evaluating the race.There always used to be a fair few runners- many making up the numbers to give their owners the prestige of having a runner.That used to virtually guarantee a strong pace early up the hill so any stamina doubts were usually cruelly exposed.Often of late they don't go very hard at all early even with supposed pacemakers so if they dawdle up the hill it's not anything like as demanding.You'd think the Coolmore team would be determined to draw the sting out of the favourite though by ensuring a strong pace.That ought to be the plan as I think it was when they were mob handed against Sea The Stars but it didn't happen as planned then and maybe won't today.I had slight doubts about Sea The Stars staying but couldn't resist backing him at 3.0 plus on the day and I'm almost talking myself into backing Dawn Approach as the odds lengthen.
The Dash
Normally I'd avoid this race like the plague but I'm having a bet this year.
I put Smoothtalkinrascal up on the blog early last month and he was turned over but with excuses.I was in hospital when he won at York but had a bit on just in case but obviously not enough.I know he's a 3-y-o against his elders but he's a smart operator in the making and there's no way I'm passing him up here at around 20.0 on Betfair.
Musselburgh
Edinburgh Cup
This is a really cracking 3-y-o h'cap.You can make a case for a few here but I'm very keen that Renew will be hard to beat.The race he was second in at Newmarket last time was super strong and he was a clear second best.The winner there,Brass Ring has Ebor /Melboune cup claims already in my book so highly do I rate the form.We'll go each way here as I'm sure Renew will place and there are some decent types who could improve a rung or two.
Advised Bets
Epsom
Race 4
Smoothtalkinrascal 0.45 units to win.Around 20.0 on Betfair now and that looks pretty good to me.
Anything over 13.0 looks value
Musselburgh
Race 4
Renew 1.35units EW.6.0 on offer now and anything over 4.0 looks appealing to me.
The Derby
Dawn Approach surely wins if he gets the trip.It's a big if though and the earlier ante post red quotes are now extending out to a reasonable 2.75 and he may touch 3.0.I was very strong on stamina credentials for this race until a few years ago and it used to be the first thing I wanted to be sure of when evaluating the race.There always used to be a fair few runners- many making up the numbers to give their owners the prestige of having a runner.That used to virtually guarantee a strong pace early up the hill so any stamina doubts were usually cruelly exposed.Often of late they don't go very hard at all early even with supposed pacemakers so if they dawdle up the hill it's not anything like as demanding.You'd think the Coolmore team would be determined to draw the sting out of the favourite though by ensuring a strong pace.That ought to be the plan as I think it was when they were mob handed against Sea The Stars but it didn't happen as planned then and maybe won't today.I had slight doubts about Sea The Stars staying but couldn't resist backing him at 3.0 plus on the day and I'm almost talking myself into backing Dawn Approach as the odds lengthen.
The Dash
Normally I'd avoid this race like the plague but I'm having a bet this year.
I put Smoothtalkinrascal up on the blog early last month and he was turned over but with excuses.I was in hospital when he won at York but had a bit on just in case but obviously not enough.I know he's a 3-y-o against his elders but he's a smart operator in the making and there's no way I'm passing him up here at around 20.0 on Betfair.
Musselburgh
Edinburgh Cup
This is a really cracking 3-y-o h'cap.You can make a case for a few here but I'm very keen that Renew will be hard to beat.The race he was second in at Newmarket last time was super strong and he was a clear second best.The winner there,Brass Ring has Ebor /Melboune cup claims already in my book so highly do I rate the form.We'll go each way here as I'm sure Renew will place and there are some decent types who could improve a rung or two.
Advised Bets
Epsom
Race 4
Smoothtalkinrascal 0.45 units to win.Around 20.0 on Betfair now and that looks pretty good to me.
Anything over 13.0 looks value
Musselburgh
Race 4
Renew 1.35units EW.6.0 on offer now and anything over 4.0 looks appealing to me.
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