Thursday 15 November 2012

Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight

It's been very mediocre racing so far this week but things pick up tonight.The Moonee Valley card is very good considering we are the week after Flemington.Track rated a Dead 4 but it's dry in Melbourne so a Good 3 is a distinct possibility.

Race 1  Hollywood Gothic is well up to winning one of these city maidens.He started slowly last time which is a worry round here and they may not go that hard in this.Unexposed 4-y-o's are well in weight wise in these maidens only having to give 1.5kg to the 3-y-o's.His debut run was very good for race like this and last time he dropped back to 1000m and bombed the start.He'll be flying home late. No early markets here but he's decent odds on early totes.Need around 4.0 to be interested here because of the start he will be giving.

Race 3  I missed the 2.80 about Conferre with the bookies but got a bit matched on Betfair.It's a Mares race so an element of caution needed but she is racing really well and still improving.I rate her 2.20 here

Race 6 Very keen on Tigress Joy here.She has always promised to be a good horse but there have been some issues.Has returned very well this prep and was really dominant at Ballarat last time.4.0 plus available and my rating is 3.20

Race 7 No early markets here.One or two that could improve a lot here.Fringed was very good against the older horses last time and the drop back a 100m is no negative.Will go forward here.If he's 5.0 or better I might be tempted.Office Bearer won his maiden like a good horse but the form doesn't amount to much on paper.

Race 8  Meteor Shower was run down close home here last time in a similar event.That was a PB and from gate 1 can get an easier lead here tonight.No early markets but my rating is 5.50 and I think much better than that will be available.

At Canterbury it's a very trappy card.Posted a Good 3 but rain around Sydney may see it in the Dead range.

Race 7 Favourite here is Uate at around 2.0.There is little speed in this and Uate usually get's back.He's hard to win with and is silly odds.Shanghai Bund should either lead or sit second-he's had two trials to prepare-he may ideally need further but 1250m first up is fine.I have him 4.0 but he's available at 9.0.

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