Final Day of Flemington's Spring Carnival and the track rating this morning is a Dead 5.Expect an upgrade to a Dead 4 at least and the possibility that we could get to a Good 3 later.
Bookies have had a bonanza carnival.They were well ahead going into Oaks Day and with only two winners on Thursday starting below 8/1 they extended their lead.
Followers of this blog also extended their lead this Spring with General Truce getting home at juicy odds (advised at 20.0,rated 9.50 and SP 17.0).
Today is very tough.Very hard to find value in the earlier races with markets looking very tight.
The Emirates (race 6) is as tight a handicap as you will ever see.Numerous hopes but nothing appeals here as a solid bet.
Patinack Farm (race 5) I favour Sea Siren and Mental here but there is no fat in the odds available so again I'll probably sit this out.
I'd like to oppose Galah at 2.5 in race 3 but I cannot make a credible case for anything else bar Morant who will be out the back in a race of little pace so no play here.
Matriarch Stakes (race 7) Silent Achiever is odds on in early markets.Dominic Beirne who does the Betfair preview for the Carnival races suggest that she is unders and is a "lay" at evens or less.I have her at 1.60.Allowing for this being a Mares race I like to see some solid overs before getting involved as they can be dodgy races betting wise.She is drifting out on Betfair this morning (now 1.92) and has come up 2.30 plus on the totes so it looks like some odds against is going to be available at some stage.At 2.0 or better I am betting very confidently here.
Queen Elizabeth Stakes (race 8) Puissance De Lune bolted up in the Bendigo Cup and is favourite here at 2.90.That is shorter than the 3.50 I rate him.Shahwardi is 5.0 and I have him at 3.50 too.Shahwardi was a comfortably winner of the G2 Herbert Power Stakes on his only Australian start.Drops to G3 here and the extra 400m is in his favour.Looks a solid bet to me.
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