This day has been a bookies benefit on many occasions in the past so an element of caution is understandable in those who have been kicking around for a few years.Generally it's weather related-wet tracks tilt the balance in favour of the layers and dry tracks give the punters their chance.Track rates a Dead 4 this morning but with a dry day expect good fast racing ground.
Ideal punting conditions then and a card that makes plenty of appeal.Bookies will be betting to very tight margins so with early morning markets framed around 120% expect better value later in the day when they will be betting around 110% or lower in some races.Fancied ones will hold or firm though.
Race 1 Al Aneed makes plenty of appeal.1600m looks ideal and the dry track will suit.Expect him to be closer to the speed today.4.40 this morning I rate him 3.60.Take the 4.40
Race 2 Gatewood is too short here at 3.0.I have my reservations about him in a strongly run race around this trip.Much more attractive is Excluded at 6.50.He's still improving and looks sure to be involved.I have him at 4.50.Take the 6.50
Race 3 Zydeco is a stand out here.She is 2.70 this morning and I expect to shorten and the rest to drift.I rate her 2.0.Take the 2.70
Race 4 Snitzerland is too big at 4.25.She is very tough and has the best form.I rate her 3.50
Race 5 Ocean Park should win but not playing at 1.60
Race 6 It's a Dundeel looked very good winning the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney.He was given too much to do last week but the winner Super Cool was going away again at the finish.Super Cool has plenty more to offer and at the relative prices he makes most appeal.He's 6.0 this morning and I rate him 4.80.I'll be saving on It's a Dundeel.
Race 7 Streama is the most likely winner.She is a general 3.0 this morning and I have her at 2.70.Lets hope we can shop around 3.25 at some point in the afternoon
Race 8 Howmuchdoyouloveme was super impressive when resuming at Caulfield but he has to go to another level here and is too short now at 2.40.Pampelone still has a bit of upside and he's good value around 7.0 .I rate him 5.50
Race 9 Tricky race and can't see any value
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