Geelong Cup Day

Ripper day in prospect at Geelong for the Cup meeting.
What a strange race the Cup is this year with only seven runners.Usually it's a maximum field with the emergencies sweating on a run.Quality over quantity this year.Very tricky race with none of them natural leaders,quite the opposite in fact.In the circumstances I think Chateau Margaux is the one most likely to go forward and if left alone may outsprint them.She's around 13.0 this morning which seems very good value-I rate her 8.0.With the likelihood of a tactical race I'm not interested in anything at a short quote here.
The early races before the cup look very tricky and I will be staying out of them from a backing point of view although there may be an opportunity to lay one or two at short quotes in some very difficult races.
I am keen on the chances of Koonoomoo in race 8.It's a Fillies and Mares event which always strips a little bit of my confidence away but not enough to put me off backing this one.She has clearly the best form,Good/Dead ideal,draws perfectly, has a progressive profile and Craig williams rides-plenty to like! I rate her a 2.80 chance so the current 3.60 on Betfair looks attractive.Rain is forecast for later- if it comes early and the ground begins to soften then my confidence would be dented and I'd probably be looking to hedge back out.If it stays dry-no problems.
In the last race New York is another progressive type who looks hard to beat.Last time he powered over the top to win a race that was set up for a closer so he may have been a bit flattered by that victory.Today he has gate 1 and can position up just behind the lead.He's going to be in the right spot and has shown before that he can quicken up well off a steady pace.I really like him today but he's been well found in the market at 2.60.Really need 3.0 to back him which may be possible on Betfair for a bit of money during the afternoon but doubt the bookies will offer much more than the current quote.