Friday 23 November 2012

Railway Stakes Day in Perth

Western Australian racing has it's premier day with the running of the Railway Stakes today.Last year it disgraced itself with the parochial decision to disqualify the first past the post Kiwi raider He's Remarkable and award the race to the local Lucky Gray.Terrible day that was for the credibility of racing in WA and hopefully some lessons have been learnt from it.
Lucky Gray is back again this year as favourite at around 4.50.With a full 5kg's more on his back this year he makes absolutely no appeal at all at those odds and I will be looking to lay him.Wall Street ran well last time in the Emirates and although gate 16 is horrible 14.0 is a generous quote and worth a small interest.

The other G1 (there not really G1's are they?) is the Winterbottom Stakes.The emerging WA sprinters Barakey and Travinator head the market at 2.60 and 4.80 respectively.Both look far too short and they may carve each other up out front.Much more appealing is Pinwheel at 9.0 whose fourth in this year's Stradbroke under 56kg's looks terrific form for this.Massive overs this one.I have him 4.50.

Earlier in the WA Guineas Academus looks hardest to beat.The 5.50 is gone now but at 4.40 there is still some cream left.I have him 3.70.He'll stalk the pace and pounce at the furlong and the other main fancies will be conceeding first run.

At Moonee Valley (expect upgrade to Good 3) today it's a tough card  and we have to wait until the last for a value runner.Follonica is tough genuine and consistent.She races handy and has a good gate.The claim helps and the rider is underated.7.50 is available ( I got matched at 8.40 on Betfair for a bit) and I rate her a 5.50 chance.Stacey Lee is the one I fear most.

Better card this week in Sydney (Rosehill,Good 3) and 2 races there I like the shape of:-

Race 3  Cantonese should lead unchallenged.He's still improving and providing he isn't feeling the effects of a long tough campaign should be involved again.Soros is a big chance too and I have them both at 3.50.The 5.0 has gone about Cantonese now but he is still some value at 4.00.Soros is a little short at 2.90 in my opinion.

Race 8  I like Pentasia here back a 100m to 1100m.She leads here and will take some pegging back.She is 5.50 and I rate her 4.0.Choice Words has trialled well but she looks too short to me at 2.70.Mercir looks the other hope


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