Bookies clearly won round one of the Flemington Carnival with Derby day producing a couple of 40/1 winners in G 1 races.
Punter's get a sound racing surface to play on again today (currently Dead 4 but expect an early upgrade to Good 3) but are faced with a very challenging card and many races have a too hard look about them.
I dealt with the Cup last night but just to reiterate I have Mount Athos favourite at 6.00.He touched 8.8 on Betfair before I want to bed last night but no surprise to see the UK punters force him back into 7.6 overnight.Mourayan is huge overs at 32.0 I may have him too short at 10.0 but he gets a great run here and is very live hope.He was my clear top pick last year but was scratched on the morning of the race.Ethiopia is underated and clear value at 27.0 I rate him at 15.0.Green Moon is 19.50 against my 12.0 and Lights Of Heaven is 20.0 my rating is 15.0.
I have backed Magnier in race 5.I rate him 3.60 and there is still some 4.20 available.Back to the 1000m suits him here and pretty keen he'll be involved today.
Race 3 is tough but I will be having a little on Verdant.Fast ground today is a big plus for him as is the drop back to 2800m.I have him 5.0 and you'll shop much better than that closer to post time.
Race 4 is trappy mares race but Steps In Time has got out too far with 9.0 on offer against my rating of 5.50.She will need a good ride from the wide gate but has J Cassidy riding and is worth chancing at the overs.
Race 6.Angelic Light is going really well but she has a tricky gate here and is likely to be posted wide so a good ride is needed.Benenden in constrast gets an ideal gate and is improving fast.8.0 is good value against my rating of 5.50.I may save on Angelic Light if she gets out around 4.0.
Other races are very competitive and nothing stands out as outstanding value
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