The Cup on Tuesday produced a handsome profit with Green Moon paying $22.50 on the Victorian TAB against my rated price of 12.0.As predicted here there was no early pace at all and those midfield or worse never had any hope.
Luca Cumani's desperate luck in this event continued with Ryan Moore failing to take full advantage of Mount Athos' good gate and position handier to the speed.He was flying home and almost certainly should have been the winner.Both horses were good results for me so no real complaints here.
Readers of this blog were also steered into Dunaden in the Caulfield Cup and Ocean Park in the Cox Plate.The Spring is going well so far so let's see if the gains can be consolidated.
Bookmaker's are still well in front after two days of the Flemington Carnival with three winners on Tuesday starting at 20.0 plus.
Oaks day today and as is the norm the "highlight" is a modest contest really.Not many Australian horses are suited to a 2500m trip early in their 3-y-o careers (or later for that matter!) so your left guessing stamina wise.
Zydeco and Dear Demi stand out clearly form wise with Zydeco the clear top pick after a slashing win on Saturday.I think she will probably run 2500m but don't want to take 2.25 to find out.I'd need 2.60 plus to be tempted and that's not looking likely so it's probably a no bet race for me.
Expect fast racing ground again despite a few showers forecast I doubt any rain that falls will enough to make much difference.Dead 4 posted this morning but expect the upgrade sooner rather than later.
It's a tricky card but there are a few that appeal as value at decent odds.
Race 2 Pelicano makes some appeal here.1800m second up looks ideal and ground perfect.Tricky gate is a concern but I rate him 6.0 and 8.50 is available although early markets are at 120% plus so shop carefully.
Race 3 Mares race so not super confident but doubt there are many that can actually win this under the weight conditions.I like Serene Star as the most likely winner.Doubt she'll be cluttered up from Gate 1 the way the straight track has raced this week but bookies may see it as a negative.I have her rated 4.50 and she is 5.80 now on Betfair which is ok but 6.0 plus may become available later maybe not.Keep monitoring the price.
Race 5 I suspect Specter has been set for this race.Wish he'd drawn a better gate but he has J. Cassidy to steer so hopefully he can find a good spot up close to the speed.Some luck needed here but expect 7.0 plus to be available against my rating of 5.50.
Race 8 Speed will be on here.General Truce is huge overs. I have him at 9.50 and there is 20.0 available on Betfair and 18.0 with the bookies.Big run last time when wide throughout at Moonee Valley and parks behind the hot speed here and has the last crack.Tough race but happy we'll get a good run here.
Race 9 Most of these would be "ideally"suited by a bit of cushion in the track including the first four in the betting although they all can win on fast ground.Flashback to a year ago and It's Prince obliged here at 40.0.Goes forward from a wide gate in a race with no obvious pace and perhaps control's the race.Loves fast ground.Speculative but 30.0 Betfair 25.0 with the books is overs.I rate him 14.0
No comments:
Post a Comment