Family issues have conspired to disrupt form study for today so I'll stick to the Cup.
Polarised opinions around the favourite Glencadam Gold.Dominic Beirne who's been on fire this Spring with his Betfair column rates him a 3.25 chance.Some other eminent judges think the current best quote of 5.0 is big unders.I have a lot of respect for Beirne's opinions but 3.25 has me mystified.I couldn't back this horse under 11.0 and he is woefully short in my opinion.Sure he ran away with the Metropolitan but the penalty and the wide barrier make it very difficult.On his form in England he has plenty to find against the European raiders engaged in this race so your banking on Waterhouse having improved him around 8 to 10 lenths.Maybe but not for me.
Dunaden despite top weight looks well handicapped.His Hong Kong win at this trip in December proved him to be a genuine Group 1 contender.The draw makes it difficult but 12.50 on Betfair is overs-I have him at 7.0.Had he drawn well I'd be rating him around 4.0.
My idea of the value runners in order of preference are:
Dunaden currently 12.50
Folding Gear 36.0
Niwot 27.0
Odds are Betfairs current quotes.
Lights Of Heaven and My Quest For Peace were attractively priced earlier in the week and both are live hopes but both are trading slightly under 10.0 now and at that level they have found their correct mark I think.
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